Executive Sports
Georgia Tech at North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -10.5
This ACC event is scheduled to kickoff just past high noon on Saturday, November 5th, and features the 5-3 Yellow Jackets and 6-2 Tar Heels. North Carolina has won two straight versus Georgia Tech and have found victory in 17 of their past 21 games overall.
Georgia Tech travels to No. 17 North Carolina on Saturday in a matchup featuring two of the hottest quarterbacks in the ACC, but it is the Tar Heels who have no margin for error as they chase Virginia Tech in the Coastal Division. North Carolina has won two in a row following a loss to the Hokies as quarterback Mitch Trubisky and its defense has excelled of late, but the Yellow Jackets come in after a tremendous performance last week by quarterback Justin Thomas
Tech is struggling this year. They are coming off a 3 point win last week over Duke in their homecoming game. But they managed to blow a 21 point halftime lead, and held on to win by just 3 points. The Yellow Jackets are 5-3 on the season and 2-3 in conference play.
The Tar Heels are 4-1 in the ACC, and their defense has played better the last two weeks giving up only 13 and 14 points, respectively, with both taking place away from Kenan Memorial Stadium.
Key Trends
The Yellow Jackets are 2-10 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The Yellow Jackets are 11-24 ATS off 2 or more consecutive OVER the TOTALS since 1992.
The Yellow Jackets are under 4-12 ATS after a 2 game home stand under head coach Paul Johnson.
The Tar Heels are 41-24 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
Dwayne Bryant
Virginia vs. Wake Forest
Play: Wake Forest -3
The Demon Deacons are sitting on five wins, meaning they need one more win to become bowl eligible. With games against Louisville, Clemson, and defensively tough Boston College to close the season, this game looks like Wake's best chance to get that all-important sixth victory. But that is not the basis for this play, but rather indicates to me that we should see a top effort from the host in this one.
Wake Forest should also be motivated coming off an embarrassing 21-13 home loss to Army. They were 7-point chalk, letting a prime opportunity for win #6 slip through their fingers. I don't expect they'll let that happen again here.
There are also some major fundamental differences between Wake's current opponent (Virginia) and Army. Army ranks #5 in the nation in pass defense, allowing 5.8 yards per pass attempt, 7 passing TD's, and 163 passing yards per game while picking off 12 passes on the season. Now the Deacons get to face Virginia's #120 pass defense allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt, 18 TD passes against only 8 INTs, and 294 passing yards per game. Talk about going from one extreme to the other!
Army also owns the nation's best time of possession per game to go along with a strong ground game. Virginia is weak in both of those areas.
Virginia is coming off a hard-fought 32-25 loss to Louisville as 32-point dogs. That was an absolutely huge effort by the Cavaliers, which may leave them a bit gassed here. This is also their first road game since October 1st.
The situation appears to favor the home team. Lay the short number with WAKE FOREST as your free college football pick for Saturday.
Mike Rose
Syracuse at Clemson
Play: Syracuse +27
The Clemson Tigers only sit behind the Alabama Crimson Tide as favorites to hoist the hardware heading into Week 10 of the 2016-17 college football season. At a perfect 8-0, the Tigers also sit only behind Bama in the initial College Football Playoff rankings that were just released earlier in the week. The Syracuse Orange have taken baby steps towards turning the program around, but they’re still light years away from hanging with a team like Clemson if the Tigers bring their “A” game to the field.
With Dino Babers now running the show, the Orange have dramatically improved offensively. Eric Dungey has thrown for 2631 yards which ranks No. 8 in the nation behind the likes of Davis Webb, Luke Falk and Patrick Mahomes II. He also sports a solid 15:6 TD/INT ratio and has proven to be a dual threat with 289 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. He’s the ringleader of the nation’s No. 5 ranked passing attack and No. 26 ranked total offense.
The Tigers have had major issues covering the large chalk as hosts to date. It grossly failed to do so against both Troy State and NC State winning each by single digits. Unlike Washington, Ohio State and Louisville, Clemson finds itself in an enviable position. It doesn’t have much to fear remaining on the schedule, and if it wins out, will likely find itself in the College Football Playoff. There’s absolutely no reason to keep the pedal to the metal right now. Only losses will drop them in the rankings, and they won’t be losing this game to the Orange.
That said, they won’t cover the number either. Syracuse has covered each of the last two meetings and has shown a knack for being able to hang with Deshaun Watson and company. Look for more of the same come late Saturday afternoon.
Oskeim Sports
Fresno St at Colorado St
Play: Colorado St -15
The situation could not be better for Colorado State, who is off as much-needed bye and has won two of its last three games to keep its bowl hopes alive. The Rams continue to improve under head coach Mike Bobo, and the "buy" sign for me was when they followed a heartbreaking 28-23 road loss to Boise State with a resounding 42-23 win over UNLV (both games on the road).
Colorado State is mediocre from the line of scrimmage, rating average on both sides of the ball. However, the Rams are 3-1 SU and ATS at home this season where they are averaging 29.5 points and 460 points per game at 6.2 yards per play. Being average is actually good enough to defeat a terrible Fresno State squad that recently lost its head coach and is simply playing out the season's final few games under an interim coach.
The Bulldogs are 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS on the road this season where they are allowing 41.0 points and 460 total yards per game at 6.4 yards per play and 11.2 yards per point. Overall, Fresno State is 0.7 yards per play worse than average offensively (4.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yards per play) and 0.1 yards per play worse than average defensively (5.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yards per play).
Colorado State should easily move the chains on the ground against a bad Fresno State front seven that is 0.4 yards per rush play worse than average (Colorado State is 0.3 yards per rush attempt better than average). Meanwhile, Fresno State's rapidly-declining offense has managed just 14.7 points and 295 total yards at 4.4 yards per play in its last three games (all losses).
My only hesitation in making Colorado State a Best Bet is that the Bulldogs have covered the spread in four straight games, which is evidence that they may not have completely given up on the otherwise-disastrous 2016 campaign. Colorado State is 15-6 ATS following a bye that was preceded by a SU and ATS win and has been known to improve as the season progresses, posting a 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS mark in the final five games of the regular season over the last two years.
I'm also not concerned about the Rams' upset over UNLV two weeks ago (Colorado State was a 1.5-point underdog) as they are 9-1 SU and ATS as favorites off an upset win. With Colorado State standing at 13-6 ATS as a home favorite and the Bulldogs posting a 1-9 ATS as road underdogs
Harry Bondi
COLORADO STATE -15 over Fresno State
Fresno State has covered two in a row since head coach Tim DeRuyter was fired, but we’re not impressed. They were outgained in both games, allowing 531 rushing yards, and last week’s 10-point loss to Air Force wasn’t that close when you consider the Fly Boys’ starting QB got hurt and they ended up turning the ball over 4 times. The bottom line is that the Bulldogs are still a team on a seven-game losing streak with a lame duck interim head coach. The Rams, meanwhile, have covered six of their last seven games, are fresh off a bye week and their bowl hopes are still very much alive. We also like the fact that Colorado State is 11-5 ATS at home while Fresno is 0-4 ATS away from home this year and has covered just two of their last 10 games as a road dog.
Wunderdog
South Alabama @ UL Monroe
Pick: Under 51
UL Monroe joined the FBS all the wy back in 1995, and unfortunately the football program just has not been competitive on this level, producing a winning season just once. They will not break that pattern this season as they are off to a 2-6 start, and 1-6 vs. the FBS. The team has a struggling offense, one that has generated a woeful 22.6 points per game, and against FBS teams just 20.4 ppg. South Alabama is in a similar boat this year as they are also struggling to find answers on offense, generating a lowly 22.1 ppg, which is also an even worse 19.4 ppg vs. the FBS. We have a pair of teams playing to a total in the low 50s that combine to generate 40 ppg vs. the FBS. South Alabama has actually regressed offensively, producing just 13.7 ppg in their last three. South Alabama is 12-3 to the UNDER in their last 15 when following a home game, as well as 20-10 to the UNDER with Coach Jones after forcing one or fewer turnover in their last game.
John Ryan
Indiana vs. Rutgers
Play: Rutgers +13
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 157-94 since 1992 good for 62.5% winners and made a huge 53.6 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (RUTGERS) - in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Indiana is 6-31 ATS (-28.1 Units) after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992; 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. Wilson is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of Indiana. Hoosiers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Rutgers is 2-0 against the spread versus Indiana over the last 3 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points: Rutgers is coming off a bye week and comes off a game where the offense finally got untracked against Minnesota. Indiana quarterback has thrown 11 interceptions already this year and the defense has given up 26.5 points per game. Look for the Rutgers offense to come out with more purpose after the bye week and keep this one close. Upstream Red team today on the old Raritan.
Sean Murphy
Hurricanes vs. Predators
Play: Predators -164
I believe Nashville is a better team than its 3-5-1 overall record would seem to indicate. The Preds have gotten off to a rocky start but perhaps that was to be expected after a number of offseason changes. They'll come around and I see this as a strong spot for them to get back in the win column after a long road trip.
On the flip side, I'm not sure that the Hurricanes are much better than their 2-4-3 record suggests. They're not scoring with any consistency and I feel they'll have a tough time breaking out in that regard tonight in Nashville. Note that their last win in this rink came nearly three years ago, in December 2013. They've gone 0-2 here since and have dropped three straight meetings in this series overall.
Chase Diamond
Texas A&M vs. Mississippi St
Play: Mississippi St +11
This game features the 7-1 Texas A&M versus the 3-5 Mississippi State. This Bulldogs defensive team will be super motivated to turn it around after giving up 627 yards 27 first downs and 41 points to Samford. I think that team was on look ahead to this game where they see it as there big bowl game this year and a chance to knock off a very good team. No question a'lot of points will be scored but I just don't think the Aggies will have enough to cover in this one. I've spoken to two top advisers both tell me take Miss State big today and looking at public numbers you will notice a huge backing by the public on the road teams side as 75% are betting them. The Aggies are just 1-4 ATS last 5 as double-digit road favorites. Under Coach Mullen the Bulldogs are 4-0 ats on the 2nd game of back to back home games.
Zack Cimini
Pittsburgh vs. Miami
Pick: Pittsburgh
We'll grab the value on Pittsburgh as slight road underdogs against Miami. Miami is a team that appears to have been a bit over valued from earlier in the season. Their offense has tailed off considerably. Envisioning a home letdown after a strong comeback loss against the Irish is foreseeable. Pittsburgh is a feisty team that matches up well with the Hurricane.
SPORTS WAGERS
CALIFORNIA +18 over Washington
By no means are we buying in on the Washington Huskies despite its current #4 ranking. The Pac-12 is having a down year compared to season’s past, as the conferences’ typical thoroughbred stallions (Stanford and Oregon) have looked akin to a maiden in its first claiming race. The Huskies are getting far too many accolades and while we respect their depth, health, experience, coaching and intangibles, those things win games but they don’t win them by three TD’s on the road against formidable opponents. The Huskies are 8-0 but their first four wins were against Rutgers, Idaho, Portland State and Arizona (who is awful team this year) on the road in OT. The Huskies got Stanford at home (Stanford is having a down year) they beat Oregon (who has no defense or offense) and Oregon State, who won 2 games last year. UW’s other win came last week against Utah. Utah is the best team the Huskies played all year and a special teams’ play got them that win.
California sits at 4-4 but it’s a comprehensive 4-4. The Bears remain undefeated at home at 3-0 after defeating Texas, Oregon and Utah, teams that many assumed would beat California with little trouble. The Golden Bears feature a robust and assertive offense that generates over 500 yards per game and that ranks among the best point-scoring programs in America. The problem for Cal is that they lack the defense and thus their offense cannot sustain leads. However, Cal has taken San Diego State to the wire on the road to once again fortify their profile. It may not be exclusive to Washington simply struggling to beat this host, as this one could be one of those scary close games. California owns the most recent win in this series when they beat UW on the road in Seattle last year 30-24. Now the Golden Bears get them at home. Washington has not faced the tests that California has this season. A combination of playing on marginalized pedigrees and weak out-of-conference opponents will be influential, as the Huskies will be challenged within the imposing walls of Strawberry Canyon. Lastly, the Golden Bears have something that makes these points even more appealing. Should they be down by 30 or so going to the fourth, Cal has backdoor firepower. We doubt we’ll need it but it is there.
UNC -10 over Georgia Tech
We’re always looking to take points first but when we see a scenario take shape where an underdog is overvalued, the same theories apply. Georgia Tech’s record of 5-3 is very misleading. The Yellow Jackets own wins over Duke and Boston College. Outside of those two wins, the Swarm have been embarrassed by ACC heavyweights, as Clemson defeated them at Tech by 19 points (which was a flattering score to GT) when many expected the Jackets would hang around against their conference rival. Georgia Tech would follow that up with yet another loss, this time in Miami by 14 points but that may as well been by 35 points because that’s how badly The Jackets were dominated. Georgia Tech owns a win against a disappointing Georgia Southern, where they had to grind that one out to get away in the end. Additionally, GT took advantage of an early-season Vanderbilt squad that was still trying to find its identity. Throw in a tune-up contest against old foe Mercer of the FCS and Georgia Tech are by no means an impressive 5-3.
Conversely, UNC is 6-2 after playing a very rigorous schedule. The Tar Heels opened up with a loss to Georgia, but the result of that game was as decided by the Dawgs’ desire to win as much as UNC self-destructing in the final quarter. Since then, UNC has gone on a 6-1 run and worked out all the kinks. Yes, the Tar Heels were obliterated at the hands of Virginia Tech but need we say that VT is ranked in the top-20 for good reason. In fact, both of UNC’s losses came against ranked opponents. Additionally, UNC has managed to go on the road and beat both Miami and Florida State in their own backyard. This is a feat that would be extraordinarily arduous for any outfit. The fact that UNC was able to defeat one, let alone both, suggests that the Tar Heels can wreak havoc down the backstretch for any ACC constituent with lofty expectations. The Heels have been on a roll and will look to continue their success with a manageable schedule to round off their regular season campaign. If Va Tech were to slip up at any point, UNC could certainly be back in the ACC Championship Game, which is a highly motivating factor here. Tech is not difficult, especially when it travels and so this will be another notch in UNC’s bedpost and it’ll likely come in with points to spare.
Air Force +114 over ARMY
Army opened the year with an impressive 28-13 victory over Temple. Subsequently, the Black Knights went on to defeat UTEP and Rice to run their record to 3-0. They have also won two of their last three and they’re coming off an upset win at Wake. Yes indeed, Army is having its best season in 20 years and now it’s time to sell. You see, the Black Knights also lost to Buffalo, Duke and North Texas. This is a very beatable outfit on its best day. Psychologically speaking, the Black Knights are also up against it here, as they have lost 17 of their last 19 games to Air Force straight up but that’s not the focus here. The focus is very simply that the Falcons are the superior team by a wide margin and they’re getting points.
The Falcons were rolling along with a 4-0 campaign before hitting the skids with three straight losses to Wyoming, New Mexico and Hawaii before defeating Fresno State last week. Those three losses are beyond ugly but let us point out that Air Force was a double-digit favorite in all three games. That is more significant than the results. In game variance is always at work and sometime things can go against you for an extended period of time. However, the Falcons got their mojo back last week with that win over Fresno State and the emergence of QB Arion Worthman. The Falcons have 32 seniors on their roster and that win last week gives them their momentum back and some renewed belief but the most important factor here is the context of last week's games. Interim Fresno State coach Eric Kiesau did a great job lighting a fire under his team last week. A rallied up Bulldogs squad had its best week of preparation and played by far its best game of the season but still lost to Air Force by 10. Meanwhile, Army beat Wake Forest on the road, but the Deacons were slack during their open date, practiced poorly during game week and turned in their worst performance of the year. The vast majority of the action moving the number will see that Air Force struggled to beat a Mountain West doormat that just fired its coach and that Army logged a road win over a bowl-bound ACC squad. Interpret the context and what we see is not games versus 2016 Fresno State and 2016 Wake Forest respectively because those teams never actually took the field, but rather games versus Week 9 Fresno State, which was better than 75 percent of the Mountain West that day, and Week 9 Wake Forest, which was worse than 90 percent of the Sun Belt that day. Keep the points. The Falcons outright is the call.
KENTUCKY +110 over Georgia
This contest features two teams heading down different paths. Kentucky fell to Southern Miss in its home opener by nine points despite being favored by over a field goal to dismiss the upstart defending Conference-USA champions. The ‘Cats would follow that up by suffering a thrashing at the hands of the Florida Gators the following week in The Swamp. Seemingly the writing was on the wall for UK and once again they appeared to be on track for yet another disenfranchising campaign. Since then, the tide has turned and hopes of a bowl berth and a winning season have been renewed since the Wildcats have won five of their last six while winning their last three overall at Commonwealth Stadium. Kentucky has Georgia right where they want them, eerily similar to 2009 when the Cats last beat the Dawgs who also entered in a transitional year like Georgia is undergoing currently.
The stock in the Bulldogs is through the floor after they were once again decimated at the hands of their arch nemesis, the Florida Gators last Saturday in Jacksonville. While we always stress to sell high and buy low, there are always exceptions and this is one of them, as the Bulldogs pedigree has them wrongly priced here. The Dawgs got off to a 3-0 start but the proof was in the pudding from the get-go that this team had a lot to work on. In each of Georgia’s first three wins, Bulldog Nation had to rely on theatrics to escape with a victory. The Dawgs eventually found ways to overcome two double-digit deficits in their escapades and that’s not a skill. We’ll cough up a mulligan to the Bulldogs when they resurged against North Carolina in the Chick-Fil-A Kickoff Game but we will vehemently cite Georgia’s failure to put away Nicholls State, a team Georgia had to inch by in Athens despite entering the game as a 50-plus point favorite. Since going 3-0, it’s been all downhill for the Dawgs. Georgia has gone 1-4 in their last five contests sporting their sole win over lowly South Carolina. Against quality opponents, Georgia has struggled mightily, as a ranked Mississippi and Florida would outscore the Bulldogs by a combined 69-24. The Dawgs have even had trouble putting away middling teams, as they found ways to blow a 17-point lead against Tennessee and they lost their homecoming against Vanderbilt. As a result of the recent turmoil, there has been some dissension in the ranks, as the program has questioned the hiring of newcomer Kirby Smart. This is the time of year where morale, chemistry and psyche play a huge role and in game outcomes and in that regard, the Bulldogs are low on all three scales. By contrast, Kentucky’s morale is high and with a bowl berth within its sights, this is an extremely winnable game that it figures to be ready for. Kentucky outright.
River City Sharps
Texas -3
Texas and Texas Tech hook up in Lubbock both off big victories last week. The difference was that Tech took 2 OT to put away TCU. Coming off a big win in OT we expect a slight letdown as they welcome Texas. The Longhorns won an exciting game and bottled up Baylor last week for a 1 point victory. The Texas defense has played much better since Charlie Strong took over the defense. True Freshman QB Beuchele has had his ups and downs, but has thrown for 17 TD and only 6 picks. We know Tech can put up points, 47 a game but also can’t stop anybody, giving up 41 a game. Last week TCU held Tech to 27 points and you can bet Strong will have his defense geared to stop the Red Raider attack. The Longhorns will look to grind out yardage on the ground where they avg 225 a game and have a 1,000-yard rusher in D’onta Foreman. They will try and eat up clock and keep the high flying Red Raider offense on the sideline. We expect another close one here but think the Horns cover the FG spread.
Chip Chirimbes
Iowa at Penn St.
Play: Iowa +7
How about that...the Nittany Lions are ranked No. 12 in the College Football Playoff rankings after having won four straight. Everyone was expecting a Penn State letdown after they defeated Ohio State but after trailing 21-17 at the half stormed back to win 62-28 over Purdue. Iowa has had two weeks to recover and prepare from their dismal performance at home against Wisconsin where they were out-gained 423-236 losing 17-9. The Hawkeyes would even the all-time series at 13 apiece.
Jimmy Moore
Northwestern +7
This series has been dominated by the home team with the homer covering 6 of the last 7 games and Northwestern covering 7 home games in a row against the Badgers. Wisconsin has revenge from a loss at home to the Wildcats but that is not a good thing as they have only covered 1 of their last 7 with revenge if favored. Northwestern is 5-2 ATS this season with their 2 ATS losses by a total of just 12.5 points. The Wildcats held the mighty Buckeyes to just 24 points last week and the Wisconsin offense is way worse than Ohio State. This is too big a number for Wisconsin to be laying on the Big 10 road against a competent opponent.
Dave Essler
South Carolina -6.5
Cocks need two more wins to get to 6 (Bowl Eligible) and two of their last four are at Clemson and at Florida, neither of which they'll win. One more home game against Western Carolina - so this game is an absolute must-win and after the rough start, they've got quite a bit to play for.
Texas A&M -13
There are some "13's" out there but for arguments sake - I'll use -120. At first glance I'd not normally lay these on the road. However, if the Aggies win out we know they can still win the whole thing - this is their last road game - the Bulldogs have ZERO defense. They allowed 41 points to Samford (not STANFORD, SAMFORD) and 40 to Kentucky in their last two games. This total has crept UP - which can only be good for the Aggies, and I do trust them NOT to play pansy with a lead.