Larry Ness
Dallas vs. Nashville
Pick: Nashville
The Nashville Predators didn't make much noise in the regular season last year but then opened the playoffs with an improbable four-game sweep of the Chicago Blackhawks, the Western Conference points leader. Nashville followed that by KOing the Blues and Ducks (each in six games) to reach the Stanley Cup Finals. Nashville fell behind Pittsburgh 2-0 in that series but won Games 3 and 4 at home to even the series. However, the defending champs were too much in the end, taking the final two games by scores of 5-0 and 2-0.
Dallas was a trendy preseason pick to win the Central Division after Ken Hitcock was hired for a second go-around with the Stars (he was fired in early February by St Louis in what was supposed to be his final season with the Blues). Dallas was said to had a terrific off-season, landing goalie Ben Bishop and center Alex Radulov.
The Stars started with 2-1 and 4-2 losses to Vegas and St Louis but Dallas earned its first victory of the new season Tuesday, 4-2 at home over the Red Wings. Hitchcock earned his 782nd win to move into a tie with Al Arbour for third place on the all-time list. "I was thinking on the bench that we've played three great hockey games, and it would have felt poorly to not finish this off," Hitchcock said. "I thought this was the best balance we've had. This looked like something you could really build on." One reason for Hitchock's satisfaction with his team's play is the pressure applied by Dallas, which has unleashed 119 shots on goal through the first three games. Ben Bishop, who was injured in the season opener, earned his first win with the Stars by making 23 saves.
The Predators also know about slow starts, losing 4-3 at Boston in their season-opener and then losing a Stanley Cup rematch at Pittsburgh, 4-0 on Saturday (third straight shutout at the hands of the Pens). It appeared as if the Preds were headed for their third loss in as many games Tuesday night, after giving up five unanswered goals to the Flyers. However, Nashville scored twice in the final 77 seconds to stun the Flyers 6-5, providing a fitting end to a home opener in which Nashville raised its Western Conference championship banner from last season. Filip Forsberg led the charge back from a two-goal deficit by scoring twice in the third period, including the game-winner with 35.6 seconds to play. Forsberg sandwiched two goals around a tying tally by Scott Hartnell, who also scored twice in the contest. "He's one of the best guys in front of the net," Forsberg said of Hartnell, who was signed away from the Columbus Blue Jackets in the off-season. "You see that on the first (goal). He's just shooting for anything and it goes in."
The Predators have allowed 13 goals in their first three games, something they will have to cut down on in order to position themselves for a division title and a long playoff run. Veteran Pekka Rinne didn't turn it on until the postseason last year but the Preds surely don't want to wait that long, again. Nashville's first two losses came on the road but the team's first win of the new season on Tuesday, was at home. Nashville went 9-2 on home ice during last year's playoffs and my bet says the Preds win again, extending their 10-2 run at Bridgestone Arena to 11-2. After all, Bishop is just 1-3-1 with a 3.56 goals-against average against the Predators.
Jim Feist
Minnesota at Chicago
Pick: Chicago
The Chicago Blackhawks are 3-0-1 to start their season and have scored the most goals thus far in the NHL (21). Their loss came in OT to the Maple Leafs last game, 4-3. Minnesota still looking for its first win after a 0-1-1 start. The Wild have allowed nine goals in just their two games, not a good omen here against the high scoring Hawks. Short line for a Blackhawks team playing well out of the gate and at home.
Andrew Lange
San Jose St at Hawaii
Play: Hawaii -17
If there's a team ever in need of a bye week, it's the San Jose State Spartans. San Jose State has played seven straight games and finally gets a break after this week's trip to Hawaii. The schedule at times has been daunting but the Spartans did open Mountain West play against three average to below average squads with two of those contests at home. They failed to put up much of a fight in any of the three. Against Utah State, SJSU was outgained by 428 yards. They allowed over 8 yards per play in a 41-13 loss to UNLV. And last week were held to 205 yards in a 27-10 home loss to Fresno State. The Spartans, who are trying to play up-tempo football, have turned the ball over 24 times and have a -9 turnover margin over their last three contests. With a bye week looming, they must first travel to face Hawaii, a team they lost to a home last season, 34-17. It’s a scenario where we could very easily see the Spartans “pack it in” if they get down early.
The Warriors haven't won a game since Week 2 but have really been up against it from a schedule perspective with three out of their last four on the road. The offense has had no trouble moving the football (6.69 yards per play) but the defense have been repeatedly gashed (1,176 yards allowed last two games). They've also dealt with various suspensions and the resignation of their offensive line coach. Saturday's game however is an ideal cure-all situation as the Warriors will have obvious advantages on both sides of the football. I look for Hawaii to jump out early in this one as the recommendation is to split your wager both first half -10 and full game -17.
Bruce Marshall
NC State at Pittsburgh
Pick: NC State
Some Pitt backers are beginning to wonder if HC Pat Narduzzi is the second coming of the failed Foge Fazio regime of the mid '80s. Now Narduzzi has had to switch QBs again after USC transfer Max Browne went down with arm injury last week. And if NCS's gnarly DL and NFL-bound DE Bradley Chubbb can limit Lamar Jackson's damage as last week, doubt Browne's caddy DiNucci does much better. The heat has dissipated underneath Wolfpack HC Dave Doeren after five straight wins.
Wunderdog
Eastern Michigan @ Army
Pick: Under 46.5
Army needed a big game last week, and going to Texas where they have played their best football over the years was just what the doctor ordered. It got the Black Knights to 4-2 on the season as they quest for a second straight Bowl game appearance. Army has run the flex-bone option for years, and it is no secret, but they have a lot of success, melt the clock and close games. The defense has usually lagged behind, until last year when they allowed just 19.8 points per game. They have come back this year to do just about the same thing as opponents score 19.2 points per game against them, which becomes 15.4 ppg if you take out the game vs. Ohio State. Eastern Michigan lost a lot from their offense of a year ago, but the defense is vastly improved, and all five of their games have played UNDER with no team topping the 27 point mark in those games. This will be a game with a fast moving clock, limited plays, and two rock solid defenses.
Joe Everett
BYU / Mississippi St Over 48½
The Cougars scheme is the same as it has always been with a run-heavy approach that has a lot of elements of a pro-style system with junior Tanner Mangum operating from under center throwing to multiple tight ends out of 12, 13 and 22 personnel packages. They have a real hammer at runningback in 255 pound freshman Ula Tolutau and a great complimentary back in Squally Canada. Their offensive line features a number of 22 and 23 year old players post mission, so look for BYU to run early and often here with shots to leading receiver tight end Matt Bushman off of play action. The Bulldogs are a physical odd front that operates predominantly out of the 3-4 alignment and they are limiting opponents to just 21.6 points but they have allowed 200-plus rushing yards in both of their last two outings, as well as giving up 80 combined points in those games. Brigham Young is not an aggressive offense but they are dangerous with their physical running game.
The Bulldogs have an extremely strong dual threat quarterback in junior Nik Fitzgerald, who has run for five rushing touchdowns while throwing for eight scores. Mississippi State runs a zone read scheme that keeps defenses guessing if junior runningback Aeris Williams or Fitzgerald will emerge from the pit with the ball. Dan Mullens’ offenses have always thrived with a mobile passer running the show and while Fitzmagic has struggled the last two games, those were against Georgia and Auburn. The Cougars run a 4-3 base defense, they have a stout front four rotation and a stud linebacker in senior Fred Warner who leads the team in tackling with 51 combined stops on the year. BYU has holes in their secondary, they are prone to big plays on the back end and the Bulldogs have some speed receivers to take advantage of that; namely Keith Mixon and Deddrick Thomas who both average roughly 15 yards per catch.
The last time these two teams played, BYU won a 28-21 home game just last year so Mississippi State will certainly have revenge on their mind in this rematch. We have lost some value from the opener with the movement going up from 46½ to the 48½ total where it currently sits. The forecast in Starkville is an ideal 87 degrees with clear skies and with the homefield advantage as well as a very effective running threat at quarterback, I’ll call for a big Bulldogs blowout with a 38-17 total that should hit the over by the start of the fourth quarter.
Virginia / North Carolina Over 50½
The Cavaliers have really turned it on offensively with Kurt Benkert coming out of the woodwork to pass for 13 touchdowns in just five games. Robert Anae is running an up tempo system and their offensive line has really turned it on as of late with 128 rushing yards or more in each of their last three games. North Carolina’s defense is beyond bend but don’t break, they’ve broken and the overlying concern is their inability to stop the run with 745 rushing yards allowed in their last two games combined. Junior runningback Jordan Ellis already has 408 yards on the ground along with five rushing scores to go along with receiving touchdown.
Tar Heels co-offensive coordinators Gunter Brewer and Chris Kapilovic run a spread timing based offensive scheme that gets the football out fast and mixes in a lot of zone read concepts to take advantage of dual threat quarterback Chazz Surratt who has already rushed for four touchdowns and thrown for another six scores. While Virginia has held opponents to just 21.2 points per game, their defense has had issues stopping the pass after allowing six touchdowns through the air in their last four games. North Carolina has experienced a rash of injuries throughout their roster but most notably losing Austin Proehl was a real shot to this inexperienced wide receiver corps. However, redshirt sophomore Anthony Ratliff-Williams and Vanderbilt transfer playing well considering the conditions.
Although it will be overcast with a small percentage of rain, the weather forecast doesn’t appear to be an issue at a cloudy 80 degrees for game time in Chapel Hill. This series has been dominated by the Tar Heels who have won the last seven meetings and five of those seven have gone UNDER the number but four of those seven have also seen 50 or more points scored. The line has dropped significantly from 55 all the way down to 50½ and while there’s not much more room for this total to go, I’d still wait to play this game a little closer to kickoff for some closing line value. We’re looking for a big Virginia win with a 38-24 type of final in this ACC rivalry here.
Purdue / Wisconsin Over 50
Most would assume an UNDER with these two teams and their offensive identities, but both teams can score with Wisconsin averaging 40 points per game and Purdue has scored 28 or more points in four of their five games this year. The Boilermakers have been given a complete makeover on offense with the team controlling the line of scrimmage and keeping things simple for quarterbacks David Blough and Elijah Sindelar. Lafayette native Jackson Anthrop is leading the team in receiving as a true freshman and junior runningback DJ Knox will now have to lead the way with sophomore Tario Fuller out with a foot injury. Wisconsin’s odd front will create havoc in the backfield at home but they can be passed on, as Northwestern found out with their three passing touchdowns against the Badgers two weeks ago.
The Badgers are running the ball right over teams with star runningback Johnathan Taylor, what’s even more impressive is that the true freshman leads the entire Big-Ten with 767 rushing yards. Wisconsin has run for 234 yards or more in four of their five games to start the year and they have scored 31 or more points in every single outing thus far. The Badgers operate out of a pro style run-heavy scheme with a bevy of talented offensive linemen and an assortment of bailout options in the passing game for sophomore Alex Hornibrook. Their senior tight end Troy Fumagalli is as reliable as they come. He excels in short yardage and on third down, converting and keeping the chains moving despite having only nine fingers at birth. The Boilers also have a new look on defense with former WKU defensive assistant changing the culture and instilling a real physical mentality throughout that side of the ball.
There are some heavy winds in the forecast at 4:00pm for Camp Randall but that should affect the Badgers offensive gameplan and regardless of how the quarterbacks adjust, both of these teams will find ways to adjust. The line moved in our favor from 51½ to 50 total points, so there’s potential for this number to keep dropping as we approach kickoff on Saturday. Wisconsin has won eleven in a row in the series and in the last six meetings between these two teams, the OVER has gone 4-2 with five of the six seeing fifty or more points. This one won’t sail over the number but a final in the range or a 38-24 Wisconsin win is right where I expect this game to finish.
ASA
Mississippi State -23.5
We love this spot for the Bulldogs. They are rested coming off a bye and will be fully focused on this game for a few different reasons. First of all, going into the bye MSU lost @ Georgia and @ Auburn. Two straight losses should have them extra hungry here. Also nothing terrible about those losses as we are seeing UGA is probably a top 5 team and Auburn a top 10 team. Secondly, the Dogs lost @ BYU last year 28-21 in overtime. It was a game in which MSU had more first downs and more total yardage but lost. Their QB Fitzgerald, who is the starter again this year, had a poor game completing under 50% of his passes with 2 interceptions. You can bet he’s been waiting for this game. Before their two losses to Georgia and Auburn, the Bulldogs outscored their first 3 opponents 143-28. That included a 37-7 home win over LSU. No fluke in that game as they outgained the Tigers by nearly 200 yards. Speaking of the LSU Tigers, BYU just happened to play them as well this year. That was a 27-0 BYU loss and the Cougs were outgained by almost 400 yards. Put those numbers side by side of their one comparable opponent and there is no comparison. BYU’s offense is bad. They have been held to 13 points or less in 4 of their 5 games and they rank 2nd to last in college football in total offense (231 YPG). Their starting QB Tanner Mangum is not at 100% with a bad ankle. He was noticeably favoring his leg in their most recent 24-7 home loss to Boise State. If he isn’t effective or can’t go, BYU will call on freshman Critchlow who had his redshirt pulled last week and threw 4 passes vs Boise. Against a solid SEC defense, this BYU offense will do very little again this week. An early 12 PM ET start for a west coast team isn’t conducive either. This has the makings of a blowout.
Eric Schroeder
I had a chance to speak with a national reporter from Southern California, and he knows all about both USC and UCLA. He said he was planned on attending the Utah-Southern Cal game Saturday, because, in his words: "it's always a good game."
Then I looked at the number.
I'll take the double-digit road underdog.
I hate to say it, but I think the Trojans are falling off a bit, and appear to be less in sync than we saw at the beginning of the season. I'm not sure what has happened with quarterback Sam Darnold, but he's been sloppy of late, and that won't bode well against a feisty Utah defense.
Keep in mind Darnold made his first career start against Utah last season. He lost. And now, while he has passed for 1,705 yards with 12 touchdowns, he's also fired nine interceptions and has coughed up a handful of key fumbles.
Utah will be looking to avenge its first loss of the season, falling 23-20 to Stanford. And with this game being a prime-time contest on ABC, I think the Utes will be looking to prove themselves as a continued growing power from the Pac 12.
Also, with a win, Utah could return to the Top 25 rankings, and that will begin stirring the coffee of bowl committees.
Take the road pup here, as the Utes keep things under double digits.
2* UTAH
Andrew Gold
Ohio State vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska +24½
I know this will be a tough pill to swallow here taking Nebraska after what we have seen so far. I think people are forgetting the fact that Nebraska was tied with Wisconsin last week 17-17 in the 3rd quarter. They haven't completely thrown in the towel for the season and we are seeing a massive inflated line.
So yes Ohio St has got their offense up and running big time but they played Rutgers and Maryland the last two weeks. So the fact their offense looks good shouldn't surprise anyone. Remember game 1 this year they were favored by 20.5 @ Indiana. So now since Nebraska has looked poor they are worse than Indiana? I'm not buying it.
I think we see a big effort here as this is the biggest home underdog they have ever been.
Mark Franco
Boise State vs. San Diego State
Play: San Diego State - 7
Off to its best start since 1975 and armed with its highest ranking since 1978, unbeaten San Diego State has its sights set on a New Year's Six bowl. The 18th-ranked Aztecs face perhaps their biggest obstacle in that regard when they host Boise State in Mountain West play on Saturday night.
The Aztecs, led by Heisman Trophy contender Rashaad Penny, have won back-to-back Mountain West championships, but head coach Rocky Long says most people east of the Rocky Mountains "know who Boise State is and they don't know who the rest of us are. ... Those people associate our league with Boise because of history." Never mind, as Long is quick to point out, that the Broncos, also known for their home blue "Smurf Turf", have reached the Mountain West title game just once in the past four years and have lost five league games over the last two years.
Broncos are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aztecs are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win. Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Chase Diamond
Northwestern vs. Maryland
Play: Maryland +3½
This game features the 2-3 Northwestern at the 3-2 Maryland. Watching most of Northwestern last week I really saw how bad this team is especially on offense. Maryland is home after getting blown out by OSU and won't be in a good mood when they take on Northwestern. Wild Cats are 0-2 on the road and I know Maryland is down to it's 4th QB but I think they have easily enough to keep it within 3. Maryland is 4-1 80% ATS versus teams with a losing record.
Marc Lawrence
Texas A&M vs. Florida
Play: Texas A&M +3
Edges - Aggies: 4-0-1 ATS in conference games following a SU loss and an ATS win; and Kevin Sumlin 20-3 SU in first seven games of the season when playing off a spread win in his career… Gators: 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS following LSU, and 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS before Georgia… With Florida a super-flat 1-5 ATS at home following a home loss, including 0-5 ATS when not installed as a double-digit favorite, we recommend a 1* play on Texas A&M.
Freddy Wills
Cincinnati vs. South Florida
Play: Cincinnati +24
This line is a bit high, South Florida really hasn’t played well offensively or up to expectations this year. Their defense has been completely dominant and has resulted in them being huge favorites, but South Florida has had the #129th ranked strength of schedule. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has already faced Michigan, Navy, and Miami Ohio all on the road. Then they faced Marshall and Central Florida at home all good teams. South Florida hasn’t faced a top 60 offense or defense. Cinci has already faced the #2 ranked offense, and the #1 ranked defense at different points this season.
Last week against Central Florida, Cincinnati lost 51-23, but they only allowed 515 yards which usually doesn’t equate to 51 points. Central Florida’s offense at this point far exceeds South Florida. Cinci’s offense was able to put up 391 yards and scored 23 points, and I think they can have some success against South Florida who gave up 31 points to East Carolina last week and 20+ points several times this season to teams who aren’t very good offensively.
South Florida’s offense is extremely one dimensional, and it is the reason they struggle in the red zone. Cincinnati has been very good in red zone play allowing 57% TD percentage and they have been very good allowing 36% on third downs. South Florida 57% in the red zone for a TD% and just 43% on third down offense. Both numbers you’d expect to be higher given the competition they have faced with defenses ranked an average 90th in yards per play allowed. South Florida is also highly penalized at 10 per game and have relied heavily on 16 forced turnovers to get their big victories.
Luke Fickell is a good coach taking over here, and a good defensive mind. Take out the Navy game and this defense has been good against the run. With South Florida’s Quinton Flowers completing just 52.4% of his passes that makes the game plan a bit easier here.
Stephen Nover
Oklahoma vs. Texas
Play: Texas +9
Oklahoma has been favored by double-digits against Texas in this Red River Rivalry matchup each of the last four years. The Longhorns have covered each time, including last year losing, 45-40.
Texas is improved this season and better coached with the change from Charlie Strong to Tom Herman. The point spread is smaller to reflect that, but it's still above a touchdown. I believe that brings solid value to backing Texas.
The Longhorns have recovered from their opening week debacle against Maryland. They haven't lost against the spread since then in four games yielding less than 14 points in regulation.
Texas won at Iowa State, 17-7, two weeks ago. Oklahoma just lost, 38-31, as better than a four-touchdown home favorite against the Cyclones. That loss has to shake up the Sooners' confidence, if not cast a seed of doutbt about their invincibility.
Texas has scored at least 40 points in three of its five games. Oklahoma has a banged-up secondary and lacks linebacker depth. Iowa State scored on its final five possessions against Oklahoma. Texas sophomore Collin Johnson is one of the best wide receivers in college. He had 191 receiving yards against USC, which has a much better secondary than Oklahoma. The Sooners defense right now just can't be trusted.
The Sooners need Baker Mayfield to come up big. He's certainly capable of that. Texas, though, is second in the Big 12 in sacks and in rush defense. I don't see Oklahoma running for 282 yards on Texas like it did in last year's game.
This is always a physical, emotional game. Oklahoma is Texas' biggest rival. The Longhorns can make a huge statement with a victory here. I can easily envision a last-possession type of game so I'll take more than a touchdown.
Teddy Davis
Kansas State +7
Last week was a chance for TCU to prove they were one of those team to be considered in the top 10. I wasn't very impressed as they were 2 touchdown favorites over West Virginia. They did win the game by 7 but were also out gained by over 100 yards.
Kansas St I was against and did get a lucky win on Texas but came away very impressed with the Wildcats. So the line is going up here because Ertz the Kansas St QB is out. If you watched the game vs Texas last week he was banged up then and the back up got some quality minutes and I liked what I saw from him handling that situation.
Let's no over react here and just take the points with a live home underdog. Wouldn't be surprised to see Kansas St come away with a win