Ian Cameron
Navy at Memphis
Play: Over 71
I am not sure either of these squads are well equipped to shut down what the other team does well offensively. Navy’s defense, which is playing more man-to-man, will be asked to defend one of the best passing attacks they’ll see this season. Memphis’ Riley Ferguson leads an offense that is averaging over 500 ypg including 316 ypg through the air. The combination of Ferguson to receiver Anthony Miller has been spectacular as Miller hauled in 15 receptions for 224 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns in last week’s 70-point outburst vs. UConn. Navy’s newly implemented defense, in theory, is supposed to create more pressure on the opposing quarterbacks and force more turnovers. Unfortunately, they’ve picked off only two passes and currently rank 123rd nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed (8.9). As we saw last week vs. Air Force (8.6 ypp), this is a stop unit that is ripe to allow big plays. On the other side, Memphis is allowing over 6 yards per play and when asked to stop the run against UCF, they simply couldn’t do it as the Knights hung 350 yards on the ground. Last season, the Tigers allowed Navy to run wild (447 yards) in a 42-28 loss. Memphis is 4-1 O/U this season in large part due to a defense that has yielded 29, 45, 31, 40 and 31 points. And with an extra bit of value (total bet down to 71) I recommend a wager on the over.
Rob Veno
Virginia at North Carolina
PLay: Virginia -3.5
Give North Carolina credit for hanging as tough as possible last week versus Notre Dame before finally tiring defensively en-route to their 33-10 loss. The lack of offensive playmakers combined with the on the job training of redshirt freshman quarterback Chaz Surratt continues to take its toll on the defense which has now been on the field for an average of 81 plays the past three weeks. There’s no letup in sight this week with Virginia marching into Kenan Stadium with their high tempo 76.8 total plays per game offense. The Cavaliers also appear to be rounding into the form of a hard-nosed Bronco Mendenhall style defense as evidenced by their pair of recent efforts which held Boise State to a season low 23 points and Duke to a season low 255 total yards.
Focus doesn’t figure to be a problem for either side here since this is a heated rivalry but in the case of UNC, effort is only going so far at this point. Last week on 14 offensive possessions, the Tar Heels began the game with five straight three and outs followed by a fumble on the Notre Dame 30-yard line and then another punt. After a 47-yard TD drive, they closed the half by getting nailed for a safety with 10 seconds left. In all, over the past two weeks, North Carolina’s offense has had the ball 26 times which have resulted in 15 punts, 5 turnovers (3 interceptions and 2 fumbles), 2 missed field goals (40 and 52 yards), 1 safety, 2 TDs and 1 FG. It’s hard to envision things getting significantly better with the injury list being what it is and an opponent that’s gaining confidence defensively each week.
The Cavs' playbook began opening up four games ago against Indiana and it is wide open now. Virginia Offensive Coordinator Robert Anae has successfully directed high powered spread offenses throughout his career and he’s got one here that’s just hitting the tip of the iceberg. Kurt Benkert has displayed the arm strength, accuracy and grasp of the system the past three games and his cast of WR’s appear acclimated as well. UVA’s passing game had a bit of a rough outing last week but made enough plays against a rugged Duke defense to get them the win. They should find balance much easier to come by in this matchup against a North Carolina defense that ranks 114th nationally in total yards allowed (121 vs. the run, 73 vs. the pass). Add to that another major injury for the Tar Heels as the leader of their secondary SS Donnie Miles (3rd on team in tackles) is out this week. Always have to be wary of a team playing with effort in a home underdog role off of a home loss but the circumstances here are overwhelmingly lopsided in favor of Virginia. Line spiked up to -3.5 during the week and have to agree with the money in this spot. Preference here is to play the ascending UVA group that figures to be 7+ points better than the home side.
Otto Sports
Texas Tech at West Virginia
Play: Over 72
West Virginia's offense has had no trouble moving the football this season. Yes, they benefitted from a three-game swatch of East Carolina, Delaware State, and Kansas but they also faced Virginia Tech and TCU away from home. Against the Hokies, WVU rolled up 592 yards and topped the 500-yard mark against the Horned Frogs as well. The Mountaineers ran into some difficulty in the red zone which resulted in only 48 points combined in both contests but the yardage was actually conducive to around 75 points.
Through five games, Texas Tech's defense has actually been somewhat of a strength as it has allowed a modest 5.5 yards per play. But those numbers are buoyed by games against FCS Eastern Washington, Houston, and Kansas. Arizona State hung 45 on the Red Raiders and Oklahoma State just missed the 600-yard mark in its 41-34 win. West Virginia is also the most balanced team Tech has faced and the only squad to rank inside the top 50 in rushing (29th, 213.2 ypg). TTU's defense has also benefited from 13 takeaways; one shy of last year's entire output.
The other factor to consider is tempo, particularly that of West Virginia. We know Texas Tech likes to play at a fast clip but the Mountaineers have really sped up the pace this season with 84 plays per game vs. FBS foes. That's nearly a 10 play per game increase over last season.
Last season's meeting closed 82 as West Virginia won 48-17 in Lubbock. Here we see a total as low as 72 yet West Virginia's is playing faster, looks just as good if not better on offense, and has taken a step back defensively. Texas Tech remains one of the nation's best offenses but seems to be getting a bit more credit that it deserves defensively after a small subset of games. Play this one over the total.
Joey Juice
After Eastern Michigan started strong with a 2-0 start, they have since lost 3 straight, but only by 16 points total. The Eagles are coming off losing yet another close game, they barely lost to Toledo on the road, 20-15 last Saturday.
Army on the other hand has won two straight, beating Rice on the road last, 49-12. The last time these teams played, the Black Knights destroyed them, 58-36.
While it may look like Army is the better team, we have to consider that they played a bunch of soft teams in their schedule, while Eastern Michigan showed they can hang with the better teams.
A look inside the numbers is a bit revealing as we decipher who to play. Eastern Michigan has the advantage. They are 8-3 ATS last 11 after an ATS win, and 13-3-1 ATS last 17 on the road. Army on the other hand has proven that they don't play well against the MAC, 6-15 ATS last 21 vs. MAC.
I once again expect Eastern Michigan to keep this game close and that's why I'm opting to take the points here.
Free pick is Eastern Michigan.
2* EASTERN MICHIGAN
Jack Brayman
Let's look ahead to college Saturday, as I like the North Carolina State Wolfpack over the Pittsburgh Panthers in ACC action.
The 20th-ranked have to avoid this trap in Steeltown, where the 2-4 Panthers could very easily challenge for the outright win. That is, if, N.C. State falls asleep at the wheel.
N.C. State visits No. 16 Notre Dame in two weeks before hosting No. 2 Clemson. But it's distanced enough that I doubt the Pack looks past Pitt.
I think the Wolfpack's defensive line is the key here, as it will apply too much pressure into the trenches, where Pitt's offensive line has allowed 12 sacks - 110th in the FBS. And when you couple in the fact N.C. State ranks eighth in the nation against the run, and 19th in sacks, this will be a long game for Pitt.
Lay the road chalk, as the physical Wolfpack bring home the win and cover.
2* NC STATE
Tommy Brunson
Louisville has had a few extra days to prepare for this conference home game against Boston College, but there is no way in the world I trust the Cardinals to cover this big impost...even at home!
When last we saw the Cardinals, they wee busy losing outright under the Thursday night lights in Raleigh, as the Redbirds saw their spread mark dip to a money-inferno-burning 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 lined games.
Boston College has rewarded their backers to a tune of 8-2-1 against the math their last 11 when installed as the underdog, and it should also be pointed out that the road team in this rivalry has covered in each of the last 3 series meetings.
The Eagles well remember the 52-7 ass-whipping they absorbed last year in Chestnut Hill against the visiting Cardinals. Lamar Jackson is still Lamar Jackson, but there simply is not enough supporting cast for me to get excited about laying 3 scores with the Redbirds.
Grab Boston College plus the points for another underdog cover, as The 'Ville makes it a 10-1 slide against the spread.
4* BOSTON COLLEGE
Eric Schroeder
I had a chance to speak with a national reporter from Southern California, and he knows all about both USC and UCLA. He said he was planned on attending the Utah-Southern Cal game Saturday, because, in his words: "it's always a good game."
Then I looked at the number.
I'll take the double-digit road underdog.
I hate to say it, but I think the Trojans are falling off a bit, and appear to be less in sync than we saw at the beginning of the season. I'm not sure what has happened with quarterback Sam Darnold, but he's been sloppy of late, and that won't bode well against a feisty Utah defense.
Keep in mind Darnold made his first career start against Utah last season. He lost. And now, while he has passed for 1,705 yards with 12 touchdowns, he's also fired nine interceptions and has coughed up a handful of key fumbles.
Utah will be looking to avenge its first loss of the season, falling 23-20 to Stanford. And with this game being a prime-time contest on ABC, I think the Utes will be looking to prove themselves as a continued growing power from the Pac 12.
Also, with a win, Utah could return to the Top 25 rankings, and that will begin stirring the coffee of bowl committees.
Take the road pup here, as the Utes keep things under double digits.
2* UTAH
Tommy Brunson
After back-to-back nip-and-tuck series meetings between Missouri and Georgia, this year's meeting will turn into an absolute runaway in favor of the grooving Bulldogs.
UGa has a defense with teeth this season, as they allow just 10 points per game in compiling their 6-0 mark. The Dawgs have easily covered all 3 of their SEC games this season, and they will cover against a Tigers team that will not be able to replicate their close result from last week when they lost at Kentucky to drop to 1-4 straight up for the campaign.
Mizzou is also on a 3-10 ATS slide their last 13 games overall.
Georgia has simply been a wrecking ball this season, and although the price is a little "steep", there is no choice tonight but the lay the wood between the hedges in Athens.
Georgia rolls BIG!
5* GEORGIA
Kyle Hunter
Virginia vs. North Carolina
Play: Virginia -3½
The Virginia Cavs and North Carolina Tar Heels are two teams headed in complete different directions. Virginia won in impressive fashion at Boise a couple weeks ago. They then took care of Duke 28-21 last week.
North Carolina has all sorts of problems. Their injury report is the longest in college football. How bad are things? Nine guys who were starters at the beginning of the season are going to miss this game! North Carolina has shown some bad body language in their last couple losses as well. The Tar Heels look like a team that is ready for the season to be ending already.
I rate Virginia's Bronco Mendenhall as the much better coach here as well. Take Virginia laying the short number.
Kyle Hunter
Virginia vs. North Carolina
Play: Virginia -3½
The Virginia Cavs and North Carolina Tar Heels are two teams headed in complete different directions. Virginia won in impressive fashion at Boise a couple weeks ago. They then took care of Duke 28-21 last week.
North Carolina has all sorts of problems. Their injury report is the longest in college football. How bad are things? Nine guys who were starters at the beginning of the season are going to miss this game! North Carolina has shown some bad body language in their last couple losses as well. The Tar Heels look like a team that is ready for the season to be ending already.
I rate Virginia's Bronco Mendenhall as the much better coach here as well. Take Virginia laying the short number.
Dave Price
Virginia vs. North Carolina
Play: Virginia -3½
It's not taking long for Bronco Mendenhall to turn the Virginia Cavaliers into a relevant ACC team. He has the Cavaliers off to a 4-1 start this season with some impressive victories along the way. Three of the four wins have come by double-digits, including a 42-23 road win at Boise State as 14-point dogs. The Broncos aren't as good as they used to be, but to beat them by 19 points on the Blue Turf is no small feat. Then they beat Duke 28-21 last week. They should still be fresh because they had a bye two weeks ago. UNC is fatigued right now as this will be its 7th game already, and it doesn't get a bye week until November. The Tar Heels have 20-some players on their injury report with one of the worst injury situations in the country. That has led to a 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS start to the season. The Cavaliers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. The Tar Heels are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Larry Ness
Texas A&M vs. Florida
Pick: Texas A&M
The Texas A&M Aggies played Alabama tough last Saturday before falling 27-19 (not a bad effort for a team which was almost a 4-TD underdog!). It was A&M's first SEC loss (2-1) and the Aggies take an overall 4-2 record into Saturday's game in "the Swamp" against the Florida Gators (3-2, 3-1 in SEC play). The Gators beat Tennessee 26-20 when QB Franks connected on a 63-yard TD pass as time expired. The following game at Kentucky, the Gators rallied from a 27-14 deficit when backup QB Luke Del Rio connected on a short TD pass with 43 seconds remaining to cap Florida's rally. The Gators won 28-27, extended their winning streak over the Wildcats to 31 games, the nation's longest FBS streak. However, Florida's "good fortune" ran out in its last outing,m falling 17-16 at home to LSU, when Eddy Pineiro missed the first extra point of his career in the third quarter and never got a chance to atone for it. He had made 46 in a row before that.
The Aggies played well defensively against Alabama, holding the Tide to 355 yards and a turnover while blocking a punt out of the end zone for a safety. However, cracking the 'Bama defense was another story. A&M managed a modest 308 yards and had three turnovers. While A&M struggled to run the ball vs. Alabama (like all teams), QB Kellen Mond connected on 19-29 for 237 yards and a touchdown and interception while also running for a score. That said, led by Williams (422 yards) and Ford (321), A&M has averaged 224.8 YPG on the ground (22), so I expect them to greatly improve here vs the Gators.
Florida owns a quality defense but the offense continues to struggle. Head coach Jim McElwain has used both Feleipe Franks and Luke Del Rio at QB but both have their weaknesses. The Gators were not happy with their offensive production last Saturday, when they went 2-for-9 on third downs, totaled 302 yards and completed only 10 passes all game. "The expectation, I would say at this point, is to play at a faster pace," told reporters this week. "Not every play is going to be perfect, but we need to be perfect on those 'got to have it' downs." Bottom line is, after averaging just 23.2 and 23.9 PPG in McElwain's first two seasons, the Gators are averaging 25.0 PPG in 2017, ranking 94th in the nation. Wasn't McElwain brought in to "IMPROVE" the offense?
I realize that the Gators are 13-2 SU at home under McElwain and the Aggies aren't "getting much help" from the oddsmakers in this one but I don't like anything about this current Florida team. Take however many points you can with A&M.
Harry Bondi
UAB (+4) over Middle Tennessee State
Middle Tennessee State is having injury problems at QB and comes into this game averaging just 20 points per game. So we see no reason why the Blue Raiders should be laying over a field goal on the road, especially against a UAB team that has covered three in a row and four out of its last five games, including last week’s 23-22 outright win over Louisiana Tech as a 10-point dog. In fact, the Blazers have been phenomenal when catching points, going 71-51 ATS as a dog since 1992 and covering 25 of their last 36 chances as a home dog. Take the points!
Nelly
UNLV + over Air Force
UNLV gave a spirited effort last week hosting San Diego State in what was a competitive game into the second half. 1-4 Air Force rallied to make things interesting late at Navy but can no longer match last season's success. These are two of the more productive rushing teams in the nation and an Air Force defense surrendering 6.1 yards per rush will be difficult to support as a substantial favorite following losing narrowly in one of the biggest games of the season. The Rebels might be worth a look for another sound effort even though most of the Air Force losses have been in close games against quality teams with three of four on the road. Air Force has allowed over 40 points per game since a 62-0 FCS win over VMI to start the season and the emotional toll of last week's wild finish could be a factor. Air Force is on a 13-20 ATS run as a home favorite while UNLV is 11-3 ATS the past 14 instances in the road underdog role. Lopsided losses to top 20 teams skew the numbers for the Rebels and Lexington Thomas should be the top big play threat on the field incredibly gaining 7.6 yards per attempts this season with nine touchdowns. A back and forth battle on the ground looks likely in a favorable spot for the underdog.
Jimmy Moore
Utah +13
Utah is an awesome underdog - especially getting more than a TD as they have covered 16 of their last 21 when getting more than 7 points. USC only has one cover all season long and they have a huge rivalry game look ahead to Notre Dame next week. Utah is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog and they are perfect 4-0 to the number so far this season. Take the Utes and the points here.