Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, October 15th, 2016

DAVE COKIN

MINNESOTA AT MARYLAND
PLAY: MARYLAND -4.5

Note I’m putting Maryland only in the opinion category right now with the status of Terps QB Perry Hills currently up in the air. But for the purposes of the analysis, it’s with Hills on the field for this game with Minnesota.

The Terrapins have shown substantial improvement in the early going under new head coach DJ Durkin. Now we’ll have a chance to see how he gets his team to rebound after suffering their first loss of the season.

As far as that defeat at Penn State is concerned, I’m not putting a great deal of stock into it. Durkin admitted that his team “panicked” after falling behind the Nittany Lions. I’ll chalk it up as a learning experience for this young and improving Maryland team.

Minnesota is off a loss as well, as the Gophers lost at home in a poorly played game against Iowa. If you happened to watch that one, safe to say it won’t be one you’re likely preserving for repeated viewing down the road.

I’m just not high on this Minnesota team at the present time. Calling it straight, the general consensus among those I speak with on a regular basis is that Tracy Claeys might be in a little over his head as a big time college head coach.

I’ve got two teams with contrasting power rating trends here. Maryland is now three points higher than where I had them at the start of the season. The Golden Gophers have tumbled in a big way. I’ve dropped them a full touchdown, and that’s really substantial as far as my ratings style goes. Fact is, I just haven’t been at all impressed by this team, and that absolutely includes in their wins over Oregon State and Colorado State. Minnesota still has an excellent chance to qualify for a bowl, as they have a few very winnable games remaining, but I don’t think this is a particularly good team.

I need to wait on an update on the status of Hills before actually playing this game, but if it’s all systems go, I’ll likely be adding the Terrapins to my card. In any event, I am not discouraged by the Terms losing at Penn State, and am just chalking it up as a bad day. Expect Maryland to rebound this Saturday with a win and cover over Minnesota.

Bruce Marshall

Louisiana Tech at UMass
Play: UMass +15.5

A trip down memory land, perhaps, for Skip Holtz, once upon a time the HC at nearby UConn. But his la Tech is likely saving its best efforts for C-USA action, and most of Skip's good spread marks on the road are as dog, not as chalk. So not sure we want to lay this price on the road with the Bulldogs, especially since UMass had balance (RB Young 153 YR vs. ODU last Friday) and competitive in most outings TY.

DAVE COKIN

VANDERBILT AT GEORGIA
PLAY: VANDERBILT +14.5

There’s always at least a little reluctance to back Vanderbilt in any role. That’s because the Commodores are, to put it diplomatically, a bit challenged offensively. More than a bit, actually. Vandy is just plain lousy when it comes to getting the football into the enemy end zone.

But Vanderbilt is a very respectable team on defense, and I think this might be a pretty good matchup for them. Georgia has its own issues on offense. The Bulldogs have some terrific talent at running back. But they’re really kind of a one-dimensional attack right now as the quarterback play has been pretty mediocre.

Freshman signal caller Jacob Eason is very well regarded, but there just isn’t any question that the talented freshman is suffering some major growing pains. His accuracy has been erratic, and the simple truth is his QB rating right now is unimpressive.

I’m just not seeing all that much from this Georgia team. The season opening win against North Carolina was nice, but the Bulldogs were trailing by ten in the third quarter before a very shaky call against the Tar Heels completely changed the flow of the game. Georgia was almost upset by Nichols State, they beat a so-so Missouri team by just one point, and they were blown out by Mississippi State. Georgia was on the wrong side of that insane finish against Tennessee, although that might have been their best performance of the season to date. The Bulldogs did get a 14 point win at South Carolina last Sunday, but the score that locked up the game was on a TD on an onside kick with just over one minute remaining.

The Commodores have a slight scheduling advantage due to the fact that Georgia has to play on Sunday this past week due to the hurricane. But the key for me is simply the number. Based on my team ratings, it’s just too high. My calculations come up with Georgia -10.5, so there’s decent value on the underdog at the current number, which I expect has a good chance to drop a tad between now and kickoff. I’ll look to side with Vanderbilt plays the points in this one.

DAVE COKIN

NEW MEXICO STATE VS. IDAHO
PLAY: NEW MEXICO STATE +5

I’ll take a wild guess and speculate that this Sun Belt battle will very possibly be the lowest rated game on the entire Saturday board in terms of viewership. But there’s a line on the game, and I see a few variables that tell me it’s worth a bet on the underdog Aggies.

No one cares about the personnel matchups, so I’ll skip all of that stuff and just focus on why I prefer New Mexico State here. The Aggies are obviously not a good football team, but in terms of fight and desire, they’re actually pretty good. New Mexico State fell down early in the annual rivalry game with New Mexico, but refused to go away and eventually rallied for the upset win. The 62-42 loss at Kentucky was misleading as the game was tied after three quarters. The Aggies eventually ran out of gas and got rolled late, but even against a low-level SEC entry, that was an encouraging performance.

This team has also had a couple of really bad games, as they were blown out by a weak UTEP team and got killed by a vastly superior Troy squad. The Aggies are off a thrilling double OT win against UL Lafayette two weeks ago. So they’re well rested with a little momentum heading into this one.

Idaho is 3-3 on the season, but they realistically ought to be 1-5. The Vandals narrowly defeated an FCS team to start the season. The other wins were at UNLV and at Louisiana-Monroe. Idaho lost the stats in each of those games but they beat the Rebels in overtime and won at the gun last week on a short field goal.

A factor of note here is that I’m somewhat of the opinion that Idaho might actually have a home field disadvantage. As discussed in previous weeks, this team is closing out its existence in the FBS. The Vandals are voluntarily dropping down to the FCS, citing a lack of resources that keeps them from being competitive at the college major league level. The fans showing up at the Kibbie Dome are still supportive but there just aren’t a whole lot of them these days.

All three Idaho wins are by three points, so the reality is that they’re a few plays away from being 0-6. Head coach Paul Petrino had an interesting comment this week, when he said “we’re probably going to never not win close.”

New Mexico State has a slight statistical edge, they’re likely the fresher team and they graded out as the minimally superior squad overall. One never knows for sure, but it’s really tough for me to envision either of these teams running away with this Saturday matchup. Armed with five points in my pocket, I’m willing to fire a unit on the New Mexico State side.

Alan Harris

Kansas St / Oklahoma Over 63.5

Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Kansas St. Wildcats hit the road to take on the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK, on Saturday afternoon. The Sooners have posted a perfect 4-0 record to the over in their last four games and they have gone an excellent 7-1 to the over in their last eight home games. They have also gone 7-2 to the over in their last nine games following a win and they have also gone up and over the posted total in 36 of their last 50 Big 12 Conference games. The Wildcats have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday afternoon as they have gone 9-2 to the over in their last nine games following a game where they allowed more than 280 yards through the air and they have also gone 4-1 to the over in their last five road games where they listed as an underdog of 8-14 points. They are also an excellent 20-11 to the over in their last 31 games overall, and they have gone over the total in ten of their last 15 games where they faced a team with a winning record. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone 7-1 to the over in their last eight head-to-head meetings and that's where we'll have our play as our numbers have both teams struggling to get defensive stops in Norman on Saturday afternoon.

Jason Sharpe

Clemson -17 over North Carolina State

This is a tough spot here for a North Carolina State team that's struggled against the better teams in the country the last few years. Lots of excitement for NC State last weekend as they had one of the biggest wins in their football program history, beating Notre Dame, but the reality is the Irish are way down this year and are nowhere near the level of team that has given this NC State squad problems in the past. Last year NC State was 7-0 overall in games played against non-bowl qualifying teams, but they also went 0-6 in their games versus teams that went to a bowl game. The Wolfpack were completely overmatched when they had to play these bowl teams on the road as they lost by an average of over 18 points per game in those contests. They've also lost their last four games to Clemson and it's been by an average of 21 points per game. On the other side of things Clemson has a bye week coming up next weekend, meaning their entire focus should be on this game here against the Wolfpack. The Tigers had some troubles early on in the season playing up to expectations, but they've started to look a lot more like the elite-level team that they were last season over the past couple of weeks. I expect that to continue here in this game with Clemson taking care of business. Lay the points with Clemson in this game.

Rob Veno
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Wake Forest at Florida St
Play: Under 53

FSU escaped Miami with a 20-19 victory when the Hurricanes missed a game-tying extra point late in the fourth quarter. FSU now comes home to face a tough defensive-minded Wake Forest team. Although FSU will be coached not to overlook the Demon Deacons having the same focus and effort that its had against Miami could be difficult. The Seminoles enter this game with a bunch of injuries plus starting linebacker Matthew Thomas will serve a first half suspension (ejected for targeting last week). Adding pressure to the secondary which has been unsteady since the loss of star CB Derwin James four weeks ago is the loss of starting FS Nate Andrews (45 career games, 24 starts) who has been lost for the season after tearing a pectoral muscle last Saturday.

Wake Forest meanwhile played through and to some extent used adverse weather conditions at home last week to defeat up-tempo Syracuse, 28-9. The Demon Deacons defense played very well and turned it into a methodical game. For the season, Wake Forest’s disruptive defensive unit now ranks 26th nationally in tackles for loss and 16th in sacks. The rush defense has held opponents to 118.7 ypg thus far but they’ll be tested by Dalvin Cook who over the last three weeks rushed for 557 yard on 84 carries (6.6 ypc). On the offensive side for Wake Forest this week, talk of starting quarterback Kendall Hinton returning have been curbed after his injured knee showed visible signs Tuesday of not being ready to go.

From a situational standpoint, this game would qualify as even more of a potential letdown for Florida State if their showdown with Clemson was next week. However, FSU has a bye sandwiched between this contest and the Clemson game so this may be a sigh rather than a deep exhale for the Seminoles. Still, I believe that Dave Clawson’s club will bring more intensity to this matchup and their defense looks capable of slowing the Florida State offense down enough to stay under the number. Also of concern for the host here is the shoulder injury to starting quarterback Deondre Francois who will start but we may see his running attempts limited a bit.

Wake Forest looks to be the right style of opponent for this spot to give Florida State some difficulty but a major consideration when handicapping this game has to be the difference in strength of schedule. In six game thus far, FSU has played five teams headed for bowl games and all are arguably Top 25 caliber. Wake Forest on the other hand has played maybe one, NC State, who they lost on the road to, 33-16. Wake Forest will be very methodical offensively and could garner enough chain moving first downs to grind clock while FSU figures to play this one (even though it’s an ACC divisional game) somewhat conservative with the mission statement of winning and staying healthy. Play it under.

Alex Smith

Ohio State at Wisconsin
Play: Ohio State 10

The Wisconsin Badgers return to the gridiron off a much-needed bye week. The offense was exposed in a big way in their 14-7 loss to Michigan; 159 total yards for 3.0 yards per play. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook completed just 9-of-25 passes for 88 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. The no. 2 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off a non-covering 38-17 victory over Indiana. It was by OSU standards a flat performance after beating Rutgers 58-0. For the first time all season, the offense struggled as the Hoosiers held the Buckeyes to a season-low 383 yards. The storyline was the defense as Indiana managed only 281 yards and coughed up the ball twice.

Despite a poor offensive showing last week, the Buckeyes will have a significant edge this weekend. The offense has generated 28 plays of 20 yards or more and 12 plays over 30 yards this season. The Badgers meanwhile are one of the least explosive teams in the Big Ten with only six plays all season of more than 30 yards and none beyond 50. The ability to pick up big chunks of yards is paramount in a game projected to be low scoring and Wisconsin just doesn’t have much of any “big play” type players. And while Wisconsin’s defense has been up to the task this season (291.4 ypg allowed), Ohio State’s has been just as potent. The Buckeyes not only dominated four inferior foes but put the clamps on Oklahoma in Norman as the Sooners barely topped the 400 yard mark. Note that Oklahoma hung 52 and 45, respectively, against TCU and Texas following that home loss to Ohio State.

Ohio State has been very successful away from Columbus under head coach Urban Meyer: 19-0 SU and 8-4 ATS as road favorites. Wisconsin’s defense has proven capable of winning (vs. LSU, vs. Michigan State) and covering (vs. Michigan) pointspreads but this is the first situation where the Badgers will be forced to face a potent, up-tempo attack. They’ll put up resistance but I don’t trust the offense to keep pace. Lay the chalk.

Buster Sports

Bowling Green vs. Toledo
Play: Bowling Green +31

The Bowling Green Falcons have been a true disappointment this year as they were supposed to compete with the Ohio Bobcats for the Number 1 spot in the MAC East. That hasn't been the case as the Falcons come into Toledo 0-5 on the year against FBS schools and have been getting destroyed in a few of their games early in the year. The last couple of weeks in conference play has seen a little improvement with the Falcons and maybe first yr coach Jinks is starting to get the guys to believe in his system. The big problem for Bowling Green this year has been Turnovers, as they have turned the ball over 19 times this season. Toledo has played very well all year as their 4-1 record suggests and their only loss was a tough one at BYU 55-53. Toledo can score points and they are ranked 19th in total yards so they will score points on a Bowling Green defense that is ranked almost dead last at 127 th in total yards allowed. If you look closer most of those yards were accumulated against Ohio State in the first game of the year and against Memphis in a 77 -3 romp. We believe the Bowling Green defense will do just enough to keep this game inside the number. At the time of this writing Toledo was a 31 point favorite and for us that is just way too many points since these two teams are MAC rivals. Last year Toledo won 44 -28 as Bowling Green turned the ball over 5 times. If the Falcons can limit their turnovers we see them covering this high spread. Backing our selection is the fact that the Falcons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Tulane 41 Bowling Green 21.

Scott Spreitzer

Nebraska at Indiana
Play: Nebraska -3

A lot of folks are calling for a Hoosier upset and the line has dropped from 6 1/2 down the as low as 3 at the time of this post. I believe the number has dropped too far. Bye weeks can be momentum killers, but in Nebraska's case, it was a chance for the 5-0 squad to get a little healthier. Tommy Armstrong's ankle looks fine and the team welcomes back WR Alonzo Moore and OL Tanner Farmer, who're both expected to play this week. They won't have WR Jordan Westerkamp (back) or TE Cethan Carter (elbow) in all likelihood, but they'll have known that for 12 days by the time this one kicks off. In other words, they'll have prepared for the loss of those two players. Nebraska has been quite balanced, passing for 238 yards per game, while running for 234 yards per game. Indiana's defense played well last week against Ohio State, but may not have a full tank of gas after that emotional & physical matchup. IU was in a similar spot last season getting 3 1/2 points from Penn State after losing a hard-fought game to the Buckeyes. The Hoosiers were obviously gassed and lost 29-7 to the Nittany Lions, falling 18 1/2 points short of the spread. The IU offense was held to 234 total yards, while the defense allowed 420. This year's version doesn't run the ball well, which means the passing game will have to face a Nebraska defense holding opponents to 195 yards passing per game, allowing just 3 passing TDs, with 9 INTs on the season. The Cornhuskers enter on an 11-4 ATS run on the road and we'll recommend them here.

Executive Sports

Pittsburgh at Virginia
Play: Virginia +3.5

The UNDERDOG is 18-0-1 ATS in the past 19 Virginia games!!! This Saturday the Cavaliers are a Home Dog to the Pitt Panthers. Virginia has covered 10 in a row as an Underdog, while Pitt is 1-6-1 ATS the past 8 times a favorite!!

Mike Rose

Kansas St at Oklahoma
Play: Under 60.5

This game will no doubt be decided by both defenses. OU owns a defensive yards per point average of 11.8 which ranks #108 in the country. That said, it’s done a much better job defending the run in allowing 140.6 yards per game (#45) than the pass. Unfortunately Kansas State has a very limited passing attack and relies on its running game to move the offense. That plays into the hands of the Sooners defensive strength.

K-State can be had through the air evidenced by Texas Tech racking up 529 yards last week. However, the Red Raiders own the nation’s No. 1 ranked passing offense, so running up against it should do the Wildcats a major solid this week against Baker Mayfield and company whose passing offense is no doubt good, but not to the caliber of Texas Tech’s.

OU went into the Little Apple and served up a 55-0 whipping of the Wildcats last season. That defeat will no doubt be fresh on the mind of K-State who will be out to make it three straight wins in Norman. With the Wildcats doing a better job of protecting the pigskin than Oklahoma as well as owning the better overall defense, I give Kansas State a puncher’s chance of sticking around.

For that to occur, they’ll have to continue playing a hard-nosed brand of defense and do its best to win the turnover and time of possession battles. If not, it’s going to have a tough time keeping up with a Sooners team looking to avoid another home loss at all costs. The Wildcats just don’t have the offense to keep up in this one, but they’re going to ball out defensively and harass Mayfield all game long. With that the case, I foresee this one being much lower scoring than the current point total suggests.

Oskeim Sports

Kansas St at Oklahoma
Play: Kansas St +11

Kansas State continues to improve under head coach Bill Snyder, who has not forgotten about last year's humiliating 55-0 loss against the Sooners. The Wildcats were at a significant disadvantage due to a number of key injuries, but Snyder's resurgent squad arrives in Norman this season with the manpower (and talent) to pull off the outright upset.

The Wildcats' strength is on the defensive side of the ball where they are allowing just 17.6 points per game and 310 total yards at 5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yards per play against a mediocre defensive squad. Kansas State's stout front seven has been 1.1 yards per play better than average against the run (2.7 yards per rush attempt to a group of running backs that would combine to average 3.8 yards per play), while the secondary has been 0.7 yards per pass attempt better than average.

Kansas State's stop unit has held all six of its opponents to season-low yardage, but the Wildcats will be tested by a potent Oklahoma attack that has been 1.7 yards per play better than average (7.1 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yards per play). The Sooners should have success moving the chains, but the issue is whether Oklahoma's underperforming defense will get enough stops against an improved Kansas State offense.

The Wildcats are averaging 34.2 points and 344 total yards per game at 10.1 yards per point against teams that would combine to allow just 12.9 yards per point. Kansas State's ground game is averaging a healthy 5.0 yards per rush attempt, which is good enough to move the ball against an Oklahoma defense that is yielding 4.8 yards per rush attempt at home, 461 total yards at 6.2 yards per play in its last three games and 469 total yards at 6.0 yards per play versus conference opponents.

My math model favors Oklahoma by less than ten points and the Wildcats are 17-5 ATS as road underdogs, including a perfect 8-0 ATS as double-digit underdogs. The visitor is a surprising 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in this series, and Kansas State is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Norman. The fact that the Wildcats are playing with legitimate revenge from last year's 55-0 loss is significant in that they are 9-2 ATS with conference revenge and 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games when getting 10+ points.

John Ryan

Illinois vs. Rutgers
Play: Rutgers +6

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-13 over the last 10 seasons good for 75.5% winners and made 25.7 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (RUTGERS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game, after scoring 14 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Illinois is 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game since 1992; 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games after 4 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992; 23-48 ATS (-29.8 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992; 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. Rutgers is 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992.Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points: Illinois and Rutgers will meet for the first time as Big Ten foes after each won at home in a pair of non-conference games in 2005 and 2006. Rutgers will play very angry in this game after their poor performances this year and take it out on a lowly Illinois team. Take Rutgers with the points.