Teddy Covers
Alabama vs. Tennessee
Play: Over 57
Teddy has dominated the NFL over the past two seasons: hitting 58% YTD on the heels of last year's epic 65% campaign. And he's riding a 62% college football hot streak into the weekend; steady, consistent profits! Don’t miss a single winner all weekend long!
The Tennessee defense is in a world of hurt right now, terrible news as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday. The Vols stop unit has, quite simply, been gutted with key injuries. They’ve lost Cameron Sutton, Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Cortez McDowell from their secondary; Quar’te Sapp and Darrin Kirkland from their linebacking corps and Danny O’Brien from the defensive line. Sutton, Sapp and O’Brien have all been lost to season ending injuries, losing top playmakers from all three defensive units.
Of that group, only McDowell has a chance to play this week, and even that’s very ‘iffy’. No surprise, then, that the Vols surrendered ten plays of 20 yards or more in their double overtime loss at Texas A&M last Saturday. And, after that wild A&M on the heels of the wild Georgia game and the wild Florida game; a Vols defense that hasn’t had a bye yet certainly could use one, a gassed unit right now!
And that’s VERY bad news against the Alabama offense. The Crimson Tide aren’t stodgy this year – they’ve been slinging the ball around, with the deepest receiving corps of the Nick Saban era; a corps so deep that they’ve struggled to get everybody involved in the passing game. Saban’s quote:
"This is a good problem to have. Last year we really kind of didn't have the depth at receiver. It was really concerning in terms of if we lost another player it would have really affected our team. So we would like to have six receivers at least that we feel can go out there and play winning football for us."
Alabama hasn’t had a mobile QB in the past, but this year, Jalen Hurts has been their third leading rusher. Against Arkansas last week, ‘Bama averaged ten yards per snap. Three different running backs and four different pass catchers had single play big gainers of 20 yards or more. This just might be the best Alabama offense of the Nick Saban era, a scary thought for Tennessee’s banged up defense.
But Tennessee has performed admirably facing adversity all season; an offense with tremendous grit. That offense has produced 90 points in the second half against the Gators, Bulldogs and Aggies over the past three weeks, with Josh Dobbs throwing for 1400 yards and 14 TD’s already. In two previous road games, ‘Bama allowed 73 points and more than 800 passing yards at Arkansas and Ole Miss. Expect offensive fireworks!
Tony George
Texas-San Antonio -3
Last week UTSA BEAT me with my Hidden Gem premium play as they hammered and beat the hell out of a good Southern Miss team as a 14 point pup at home, as they racked up 55 points is a shocker. Remember this same UTSA almost beat Arizona State a few weeks ago but struggled at ODU the week before this game. Perhaps Southern Miss was looking ahead to LSU this week, but UTSA dominated that game and traded punches on the scoreboard after getting out to a huge lead.
Interesting that Southern Miss waxed this same Rice team two weeks ago and the Road Runners just beat So. Miss huh? Rice allows a NCAA Ranked #128, 7.5 yards per play – that is unreal, and UTSA can rack up some yards and points. Even though this game is at Rice, it is a short road trip and the Roadrunners look to build off a huge win in a game where they dominated start to finish, as I watched it intensely as I tore up a ticket. I was wrong about the Road Runners and that is the only positive you get with losing wagers, you learn and they are a good team who is well coached. Rice is 0-5 SU and simply deplorable on defense and off a bye week will not help. I see no let down spot here for UTSA on a very short number. Road games are always tricky but Rice does not have an intimidating home field by any stretch and not much of an advantage in this situation.
Dennis Macklin
Georgia St vs. Troy
Play: Troy -17
Love this spot for the revenge minded Trojans. Troy is 4-1 (SU and ATS) with the spread loss coming in their opener when they were hooked in a game they won by 40. The straight up loss was a six-point loss to Clemson in a game they were in the whole way. Georgia State (1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS) has had it's moments against a tough non-conference schedule (touchdown loss at Wisconsin). GS got fat vs. Texas State is last but faces a top flight non-Power Five defense here that allows less than six yards a play and has come up with 14 turnover in their last four games. Add to the mix the Trojans having extra time off their bye, in revenge mode from a 31-21 road loss last year and HC crowd .... we have a solid reason to back Troy here.
Matt Josephs
Tulsa vs. Houston
Play: Over 70½
There are a few ways for a team to come out flat after a bad loss. I think Houston's offense won't be the side that struggles in this one on Saturday night. The Cougars are putting up over 500 yards on offense and should be able to roll on a Tulsa group that has had trouble stopping even mediocre offenses. The Golden Hurricane is averaging over 230 yards per game on the ground and they should be able to hold up their end of the scoring bargain. Tulsa has gone over in 20 of their last 30 games including three of five this year. The last two years this game has been a high scoring affair with 62 and 64 points put up. I think we go over the higher total.
Jesse Schule
Vanderbilt vs. Georgia
Play: Georgia -14
Georgia was impressive in a 28-14 win at South Carolina on Sunday, and they host the struggling Vanderbilt Commodores in Week 7. Vanderbilt has been brutal offensively, ranking 121st nationally scoring just 19 points per game. Any success they've had on offense has come on the ground, and they should find it tough sledding on the road at Georgia. The Bulldogs absolutely stuffed South Carolina last week, allowing the Gamecocks to run for just 30 yards on 26 carries.
Nick Chubb came into this season as a Heisman candidate, but he has been plagued by injuries. He really got going in the win over the Gamecocks though, running for 121 yards and two TDs on just 16 carries. He could be in line for a big day against a Vandy defense that hasn't had much success stopping the run this season. The Commodores allowed Georgia Tech to run for 289 yards and three TDs in a 38-7 loss at Atlanta a few weeks ago. I expect a similar result here against Georgia.
Alex Smart
Alabama vs. Tennessee
Play: Alabama -13
Tennessee had been getting lucky consistently this season til last weeks loss to Texas A&M. They barely got by App State to begin the season, and hail married a last second touch down against Georgia to stay undefeated and also had numerous lucky calls and plays along the way. Now I feel after that last loss , everything goes to crap today against a side that will be all business. Alabama will be very prepared to put down the hammer here in Rocky Top and with no mercy leave little or no room for a miraculous Tennesse combeack. Alabama is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% with the average margin of victory ,coming by an average of 24.1 ppg. Alabama has covered 9 of their 11 at Tennessee.
Bryan Leonard
Purdue +12½
The Hawkeyes have an extremely easy schedule this year and still have underperformed. The only time this club looked impressive all year was a 42-3 home win over instate rival Iowa State. The last three games the Hawkeyes beat Rutgers in yards per play 5.8 to 5.0, lost to Northwestern 5.0 to 4.2 and outlasted Minnesota 4.5 to 4.3. This team doesn’t deserve to be double digit road favorites.
Purdue started the year very badly as it had a turnover disadvantage of -9 combined against Cincinnati and Nevada. But the last two weeks the team has busted out of its turnover situation and are off a nice road win at Illinois. Now back home for homecoming we will back the positive momentum of the Boilermakers.
Wunderdog
North Carolina @ Miami
Pick: North Carolina +7
This is a very tough spot for Miami as they are off their first loss of the season, and it was against their bitter rival Florida State To make matters worse, they lost by a single point. It is going to be hard for this team to be fully loaded emotionally, and taking on a very competent North Carolina team while laying more than a TD won't be an easy task. The Hurricanes are now 4-1 and had looked impressive enough to be labeled as a potential challenger in the ACC and beyond, but the 4-0 start was vs. much lesser teams, and losing at home in their first test was a blow. North Carolina has a good coach, a strong offense, and a team that has done well in finding a way to win. The Tar Heels are 4-2 with losses to Georgia and Virginia Tech, but have beaten Pittsburgh, and Florida State, so they certainly have had a much tougher road, and a win here will have them with a better record than Miami. Miami QB Brad Kaaya injured his shoulder last game, so he may not be 100%. Miami has a history of not being focused after getting upset at home as a favorite, leaving them at 4-15 ATS in their next game in the last 19.
Stephen Nover
Ohio St. -10.5
Ohio State is going for its 20th straight true road game win, which is the longest active streak in the nation. It's an impressive feat and I see it holding up against Wisconsin.
The Badgers are well-coached, had a bye last week and are strong again defensively. I greatly respect their home field, too. But their offense is too weak to keep up with the Buckeyes. Alex Hornibrook is another in a long line of below average Wisconsin quarterbacks. The Badgers have had only one outstanding quarterback during the last 50 years and that was Russell Wilson, and he only played one year for Wisconsin.
Wisconsin, though, has had many great running backs. The Badgers' ground attack isn't up to previous standards this year, however. Corey Clement has failed to carry the Badgers' tradition of Heisman Trophy caliber tailbacks. Michigan held the Badgers to 2.5 yards per attempt on the ground in winning, 14-7, two weeks ago. Ohio State's defense is even better holding opponents to 10.8 points per game. The Buckeyes have yet to allow a touchdown on the ground.
The line should be higher as in my view it's still not fully reflecting the class difference between these two teams. Ohio State doesn't just win, but dominates winning by an average of 43 points. The Buckeyes may have been caught looking ahead to this challenge because they only defeated Indiana by 21 points last week in their worst performance. And Indiana has been decent this year.
Things could get ugly for the Badgers, who have no backdoor capability with their lack of a passing attack as Ohio State is averaging two interceptions per game. The Buckeyes have far more talent at the skill positions especially at quarterback with J.T. Barrett.
The Buckeyes also have owned this series recently covering all but one of the last eight games.
Marc Lawrence
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma
Play: Kansas State +14
Edges - Wildcats: 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS the last three games as a visitor in this series; and 5-0 ATS last five games as a double-digit conference dog. Sooners: 2-5 ATS following a win over Texas. With KSU having held all six foes to season-low yardage this year, look for the Wildcats to improve to 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when seeking conference revenge. We recommend a 1* play on Kansas State.
Matt Fargo
Texas-San Antonio vs. Rice
Pick: Rice
For those that have not read my Inside the Game article from Week Six had the UTSA and Southern Mississippi game included. ''UTSA pulled off the huge upset as a 16.5-point underdog even though it was outplayed entirely after the first quarter. The Golden Eagles outgained UTSA 557-532 but allowed the Roadrunners to score a touchdown on their first four drives. They committed three turnovers that led to 10 points and five times they entered UTSA territory and came away with nothing. '' It was apparent that the Golden Eagles were looking past the Roadrunners to their game this week against LSU and it bit them. While UTSA won the game, it lost the stats battle and that is a big deal as it was the fourth time in four games against teams from the FBS where they were outgained. Rice is off to a 0-5 start after coming into the season with some high expectations. After all, the Owls were returning 16 starters and had a very favorable schedule but it has been a disaster so far. A loss here and the season is likely done because it would be their sixth loss and they have a game at Stanford to close the season. This is a must win and starts a stretch of games which all can be won as a game at Louisiana Tech is the only tough one. No way UTSA should be laying points on the road here especially considering they are 3-11 in their last 14 road games since 2014. Rice is off its bye week so there has been plenty of prep time and going back, the Owls have covered 13 of their last 17 home games coming off a bye.
Oskeim Sports
Bowling Green at Toledo
Play: Toledo -30.5
While I generally don't like investing on large Homecoming favorites, this game involves such a mismatch on both sides of the ball that an exception was warranted. Toledo is averaging 43.2 points per game and 570 total yards at 7.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 6.0 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad.
Meanwhile, Bowling Green's non-existent stop unit is giving up 46.5 points per game and 515 total yards at 6.7 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.9 yards per play. The Falcons are also allowing 61.3 points per game and 599 total yards at 7.6 yards per play on the road this season.
Even more alarming is the fact that Bowling Green's defense is allowing 11.1 yards per point, including 9.8 yards per point on the road. Overall, Toledo's offense possesses a significant 2.3 yards per play advantage over the Falcons' stop unit.
Bowling Green is equally inept on the offensive side of the ball where the Falcons are averaging just 18.3 points per game and 368 total yards at 4.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 4.9 yards per play to a mediocre attack.
The Falcons' one-dimensional offense will be challenged by a solid Toledo defense that is limiting opponents to a mere 10.0 points per game and 244 total yards at 4.1 yards per play in 2016.
Bowling Green can't pass the ball (5.3 yards per pass attempt against teams that would combine to allow 6.4 yards per pass attempt) and the Falcons are averaging just 12.3 points and 302 total yards at 4.0 yards per play on the road (77-0 loss at Ohio State; 77-3 loss at Memphis; 30-24 loss at Ohio). First-year head coach Mike Jinks must be wondering why he decided to take the job at Bowling Green after starting the season 0-5 (1-4 ATS) versus FBS opposition.
Finally, Toledo is on a 16-4-1 ATS run overall and is 18-8-1 ATS at home following consecutive road games. The Rockets have covered the spread in each of their last seven games versus teams with a losing record, are 13-2-1 ATS following a win and are 4-1 ATS in their last five October affairs.
With the home team standing at 13-5 SU and 11-4-2 ATS in this series (Toledo 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS L/6), lay the points with the Rockets and invest with confidence.
Oskeim Sports
So Mississippi +25
This game highlights the betting public's propensity to overreact to short-term results. Southern Mississippi is coming off a 55-32 upset loss to UTSA as 17-point favorites, whereas the Tigers are coming off a convincing 42-7 win over Missouri under interim head coach Ed Orgeron.
Southern Mississippi is 4-2 SU this season and has already taken down an SEC opponent (Kentucky) on the road in Week One. The Golden Eagles possess a very good offense that is averaging 40.2 points per game and 532 total yards at 6.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 6.3 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad.
Southern Mississippi can move the chains on the ground (4.9 yards per rush attempt) and through the air (8.6 yards per pass attempt). Head coach Jay Hopson confirmed on Tuesday that quarterback Nick Mullens would be "ready to play" after injuring the thumb on his throwing hand last week against UTSA. Reports indicate that Mullens has fully participated in practice this week and has looked good.
Meanwhile, LSU starting safety Rickey Jefferson suffered a broken ankle in practice on Wednesday and could miss the remainder of the season. Jefferson has started every game this season and has 23 tackles and one interception. LSU will also be without starting running back Leonard Fournette, who has missed a majority of the 2016 season due to a nagging ankle injury.
From a technical standpoint, Southern Mississippi is 7-1 ATS on the road versus .799 or worse opposition and 18-10 ATS as a double-digit underdog versus SEC foes since 1990. The Eagles are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss, 7-2-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference affairs and 11-4 ATS in their last fifteen road games.
With LSU standing at 5-11 ATS following a win by 20+ points and likely looking ahead to next week's game against Mississippi, grab the generous points with the Eagles and invest with confidence.
Tony Finn
Bowling Green at Toledo
Play: Toledo -30
The 'Battle of I-75' takes the campus gridiron this weekend when the two MAC franchises, Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets (-31, 72) take the field at the Glass Bowl for a 3:30 PM ET prime-time, Saturday, October 15, 2016, conference event. Bowling Green owns the series edge, albeit a narrow margin, in the rivalry, winning 39 of their 80 meetings. The Rockets have been the "dominatrix" in this rivalry over the last decade-plus having won nine of the last twelve meetings between the two MAC clubs.
Falcons
Bowling Green and Toledo have been competitive foes over the history of this rivalry before the turn of the century. The Falcons, as a whole, currently hobble into the Glass Bowl having lost four straight with their lone win coming against North Dakota.
The Bowling Green’s offense is averaging a mere 18 points per game and are consistently a 325 total yard per game unit. Ball protection has been an issue and this against teams that have been anything but stellar, defensively. The Falcons have handed the ball to their oppoent19 times (turnover margin of -13) and what should come as no surprise, the school is ranks dead last, at the rock bottom, in this category among all FBS teams.
The Falcon’s lone chance of keeping this game close rests in their ability to keep the Toledo offense off the field by using their power running game. BG running back Fred Coppet has accrued 451 yards and three touchdowns on the ground this season.
There are not a lot of positives to report for the Falcons defense. BG has allowed 45-plus points over 500 yards per game on average this season. Again, this ranks the school dead last among all FBS franchises in points per game allowed. Not to be sound disparaging or sardonic, the Falcons are not dead last in yards allowed per game, they rate as the 125th of 128 FBS squads in this category.
Rockets
Toledo sits atop the MAC West division with a 4-1 overall mark. The team's only loss came on the road in a crazy Friday night event from Utah, a setback at the hands of BYU in Provo when the Cougars scored in the finals seconds of the contest to secure a 55-53 victory.
Examining the matchup between the Toledo offense and the Bowling Green defense offers a view of what is obviously a monumental mismatch. The Rocket have played a tougher schedule, albeit a small sample size, and have managed to average 43 points per game.
Toledo ranks in the FBS Top-15 in offensive efficiency and in the Top-5 of total offense.
Rockets signal caller Logan Woodside has completed over 70% of his passes this season for over 20 touchdowns. The Toledo quarterback has thrown a mere three interceptions, rates in the Top-20 of all FBS quarterbacks in passing yards and has two wide outs that will be a difficult handle for the Falcons secondary, in Cody Thompson and Jon’Vea Johnson. The two receivers have combined more than 1,000 yards and eleven touchdowns this season.
When comparing the Rockets defensive charts to that of the Falcons offensive grid the game projects that Toledo will improve their already capable defensive numbers. The Rockets have allowed an average of 21 points per game, save their 50-plus points allowed to the Cougars two weeks ago, and the Toledo opponents are converted just 50 percent of their third downs. The bend but don't break defense has also held the opposition to equal touchdown to field goal ratio in the red zone this season.
This is the two schools regional rivalry and in this situation it is difficult to position one club as a four touchdown favorite but alas, this is the case in 2016. Not only was Toledo talented and skilled enough to defeat a Bee Gees squad 44-28 last season, and do so on the road, the 2015 version of Bowling Green was much more talented and experienced than this year's edition.
Lay the wood in this MAC affair and support Toledo in what will end up being closer to a 50-point victory for the Rockets than that of a 20-point loss for the Falcons.
Ian Cameron
Tulsa at Houston
Play: Tulsa +21
It is hard to ignore the negative situation for Houston, especially when it involves the Cougs laying three touchdowns. One can’t help but question the team’s mindset after a 46-40 loss to Navy last week; in the process all but crushing their hopes of making it to the College Football Playoff. Adding to it is the constant chatter that head coach Tom Herman will be headed to Texas or another more high profile program after this season. It was a tricky spot for Houston with having to face a unique offense that they rarely if ever see but they didn’t help their cause with a -3 TO margin including a costly pick six early in the second half. Herman is calling upon the leadership group of the team to step up and lead the way but whether this team can maintain their focus and intensity remains to be seen.
If Houston is lethargic in any way for this game, Tulsa is talented enough, especially on the offensive side of the football, to take advantage. The Golden Hurricane have scored 40+ points in back-to-back games and senior quarterback Dane Evans is averaging 7 yards per pass attempt. Tulsa also has a solid running back tandem with D’Angelo Brewer and James Flanders combining for over 1,000 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns. Houston’s defense had been great prior to last week against but it’s worth noting Tulsa put up 28 and 24 points and well over 400 yards of total offense against Houston in each of the last two head-to-head meetings. The Cougars were unable to earn a margin of victory of more than 14 points in both contests. It’s worth noting that double-digit road underdog has been Tulsa’s best pointspread role in the two seasons of the Philip Montgomery era going 4-1 ATS. I’ll take a shot backing Tulsa to keep this game within three scores against a team that may not have the focus required to notch a blowout victory.