Drew Martin
Utah at Oregon St
Play: Under 40
The biggest totals move on the board and it appears justified as the weather in Corvallis, Oregon is projected to be hurricane-esque on Saturday. Current weather reports are not only calling for heavy rain but winds of 30-40 MPH. And it's important to note that Reser Stadium is not enclosed meaning that wind will have little issue entering the stadium. The forward pass should be all but nonexistent in this contest.
Oregon State shows a strong statistical profile running the football but the stats are heavily skewed due to games against FCS Idaho State and defensively inept Cal. The Beavers racked up 70% of their seasonal yardage (730 yards) in those two games. In their three contests against Minnesota, Boise State, and Colorado, OSU averaged a measly 3.0 ypc. Utah grades out as above average against the run having allowed just over 4.0 ypc. In last year's meeting, the Utes held the Beavers to 108 yards on the ground en route to a 27-12 victory.
Utah has somewhat changed its stripes this season, relying more on the pass than the run in terms of effectively moving the football. The main reason is injuries as five running backs are listed as either out, doubtful, or questionable on the injury report. They have still been able to put up yardage on the ground but most of it is due to sheer volume (43.6 attempts per game) rather than success (4.1 ypc).
As always, inclement weather can lead to miscues and non-traditional touchdowns. But you can still expect points to be at a premium given the situation. Play it under.
Brandon Powell
Nebraska vs. Indiana
Play: Indiana +3
This is a classic trap line, with almost 70% of the public backing Nebraska. Look for Indiana to go for its 2nd big upset in 3 weeks. The Hoosiers have played very well at home this year look for this trend to continue against a very beat up Nebraska team. The Cornhuskers will be without their leading wide receiver, tight end, backup running back, and Tommy Armstrong has been in a walking boot all week but will play. Look for the Indiana to cover the spread here.
Chip Chirimbes
Central Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
Play: Northern Illinois +2½
This is a tough take as Northern Illinois is just 1-5 (2-4 ATS) and have problems stopping the ball on defense. The best asset for the Huskies in their balanced offense which averages 225 yards rushing and 249 yards passing. Central Michigan averages 40 yards less per contest. The Huskies are still looking for their first home win having lost to San Diego State and Western Illinois. Look for a big effort here at home.
Bill Biles
Wake Forest vs. Florida St
Play: Florida St -21
Florida State is coming off a huge win vs in state rival Miami and now they get a little break in their schedule vs Wake. If they didn't have a loss already i would worry about this being a trap game, but they need to win every game from here on with style points. FSU will play sound defense in this one and get a big win.
Kyle Hunter
Nevada vs. San Jose St
Play: Under 55
The weather on the west coast this weekend is just brutal. The single most important weather factor when it comes to betting totals is absolutely the wind, and the wind will play a role in this game on Saturday night.
This game is expected to be played during steady rain and winds of 20 to 30 mph. Gusts of up 40 mph are possible as well. That will make it extremely hard to throw the football. While neither of these defenses are all that good, when the opposing team becomes one dimensional, they are a lot easier to slow down.
These kinds of conditions help the under a great deal, and this number is still relatively high. Consider the fact that both of these teams rank in the bottom 40 teams in the nation in terms of tempo, so there shouldn't be a bunch of possessions in this game.
The under is 29-9 in Nevada's last 38 games overall. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. Take the under here.
Michael Alexander
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia +3.5
Pittsburgh comes into this one with a bunch of close games on their resume, with their latest a 37-34 win over Georgia Tech, overcoming a 34-27 deficit in the last 3:50, on a 74-yard pass and field goal at the gun. A 196-182 Pittsburgh point edge this year. However, rested Cavs are 9-0-1 ATS, with the underdog on a 15-2-1 run in Virginia games.
Freddy Wills
North Carolina vs. Miami Florida
Play: North Carolina +7.5
This seems like a value spot for the Tarheels who looked bad last week. The weather had a lot to do with it also I have felt since the Tennessee game that Virginia Tech was under rated. We had the Hokies as our biggest play last weekend and it easily cashed. It was just a bad match up. What I like this week is Mitch Tribusky should bounce back against Miami's secondary which has yet to be tested. Miami's secondary has faced passing offenses ranked 122, 72, 74, 46th which just simply does not impress me. Francois was able to carve up this secondary in the second half and I think Tribusky and his receiving weapons will have a great game here. With that said this game should feature limited possessions when you factor in Miami is dead last with 59 plays per game and North Carolina is 115th. I do think Miami is a better team overall, but there simply won't be enough plays to showcase this. Miami also will keep it on the ground in my opinion keeping this game down in scoring. I have the game at 23-28 in favor of Miami, but I factor in the extra points we get for the final last week for North Carolina. Miami off their loss to Florida State has typically struggled. They lost in devastating fashion on a missed extra point. Despite leading 13-0 int hat game they were actually out gained 408 to 276 yards. Florida State's defense which was unable to make second half adjustments against a ton of teams was able to do so in the second half a week ago against Miami. There is just too much value here with the points and the dog is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Jim Feist
Iowa at Purdue
Pick: Iowa
Purdue may have squeezed out a winning record but this is a weak all around squad, 9-31 under fourth year coach Darrell Hazel. Purdue followed an ugly 50-7 loss to Maryland on Oct. 1 but Purdue rebounded with its first road victory in two years by outlasting Illinois 34-31 in overtime, but allowed a ton of rushing yards. The Boilermakers are 3-23 in Big Ten games under Hazell, 7-19-1 ATS following a straight up win. The Hawkeyes bounced back from a disappointing 38-31 loss to Northwestern by edging Minnesota 14-7 to equal a school record with their eighth straight road win. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and beat Purdue 40-20 a year ago. And the Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Rocketman
Nebraska @ Indiana
Play: Indiana +3
The Nebraska Cornhuskers travel to Indiana to take on the Hoosiers on Saturday afternoon. Nebraska is 5-0 SU overall this year while Indiana comes in with a 3-2 SU overall record on the season. Indiana is averaging 293 passing yards per game and 455.6 total yards per game this season. Indiana beat Michigan State by 3 at home this year and lost by 21 to one of the best teams in the country, Ohio State on the road. Nebraska is 16-34-1 ATS last 51 games after allowing 275 total yards or less in their last game. Indiana is 5-0 ATS last 5 conference games. Indiana is 13-5-1 ATS last 19 home games against a team with a winning road record. Indiana is 6-2 ATS last 8 games after a SU loss of 20 or more points. We'll recommend a small play on Indiana today!
Steve Merril
Iowa St. +14.5
This line opened on the key number of +14, but was quickly bet down to +13.5 early in the week. However, this line has now risen back up and there is value with the underdog at +14.5 or more. Iowa State's offense is heating up and has scored 44, 42, and 31 points in their past three games after scoring just 20, 3, and 20 points in the first three games of the season. The Cyclones should have continued success against a struggling Texas defense that has allowed 39.6 points and 477 total yards per game (6.4 yards per play) this year.
The Longhorns had high hopes this season after their 2-0 SU/ATS start which included an important home win versus Notre Dame. However, Texas has since gone 0-3 SU in their past three games which includes a close 45-40 loss versus rival Oklahoma last week. That high-scoring loss will likely leave the Longhorns flat this week, especially as a double-digit favorite after just being a double-digit underdog last week.
Joseph D'Amico
Northwestern vs. Michigan St
Play: Northwestern +7
Northwestern comes off a bye week following a big, outright victory at Iowa. They face a Michigan State squad that has dropped three consecutive contests and has failed to cover 6 of their L7. The Wildcats offense has the Thorson/Carr connection in the air and RB, Justin Jackson on the ground. The Spartans are in the midst of a QB issue, as their offense has accounted for just 13.6 PPG during their current 3-game skid (all against teams they were favored over). The Road team is 12-1 ATS the L13 meetings in this series. The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS the L6 meetings at the Spartans. The Spartans are 3-7 ATS their L10 games played at home.
Ray Monohan
Alabama vs. Tennessee
Play: Alabama -12
The Crimson Tide head into Tennessee for a marquee SEC matchup and Alabama has value laying the number here. Backing Alabama every week is always a good idea. Alabama is far more faster and much more physical than every team they've endured and despite Tennessee's high ranking, the Volunteers have struggled at times this season.
Alabama has gone 4-2 ATS on the season while averaging 45 points to just 16 they concede. The offense has big play making abilities and the defense is going to swarm to the backfield and cause a lot of havoc.
Here against Tennessee, they should be able to do similar things like the Aggies did last week and really wear them down in the first half.
Some trends to note. Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Crimson Tide are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Alabama just has too many playmakers on both sides of the ball here. Laying the points with the Crimson Tide is worth a move here, as they have an advantage in almost every category.
Bob Harvey
NC State vs. Clemson
Play: Over 60½
Unbeaten Clemson goes after its seventh straight victory when it hosts North Carolina State.
The Tigers don't lack for firepower as they've racked up more than 500 total yards of offense in two straight games. RB Wayne Gallman has found some running room with back-to-back 100-yard performances. Getting Gallman going has helped open up the passing game for Deshaun Watson, who has tossed nine touchdown passes in the past two games.
The Wolfpack offense boasts some big offensive numbers topping the 500 total yards in three of five games, That includes last weeks 198 yards of O in the driving rain and have heavy winds of Hurricane Matthew.
Clemson is averaging 38.7 ppg overall but over 43 points per game at home. North Carolina State is averaging 30 ppg. on the road but giving up 33.0 per outing as a visitor.
Jack Jones
Oklahoma -13
Oklahoma might be the best 3-2 team in the country. But those two early losses to Houston and Ohio State, coupled with the fact that it has gone 1-4 ATS through four games, have the Sooners undervalued right now. But since they’ve gotten into Big 12 play, they have played up to their potential.
Indeed, the Sooners went on the road and beat TCU 52-46 in what was a 49-24 blowout before the Horned Frogs staged a ferocious fourth quarter comeback for a second straight year. It was a still a good win and obviously a bigger blowout than the final score showed.
The same was the case against Texas last week. Oklahoma beat Texas 45-40 and should have won by more, but the fact that they didn’t cover the 11.5-point spread has them undervalued. The Sooners outgained the Longhorns 672 to 425 for the game, or by 247 total yards. So the box scores show two blowouts over TCU and Texas, but the final scores do not, which has the Sooners a bit under the radar.
Kansas State, on the other hand, has been thoroughly outplayed in conference play and should be 0-2. The Wildcats were outgained by 136 yards in their 16-17 loss at West Virginia to open conference season. Then they were outgained by 257 yards by Texas Tech in a 44-38 win last week. The Wildcats got two non-offensive touchdowns to aid that win against the Red Raiders. And their 13-26 loss at Stanford in the opener doesn’t look as good now.
Texas and TCU had the high-powered offenses to keep up with Oklahoma even though they were getting dominated in the box score. Kansas State has no such luxury. It is putting up just 344 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play against opponents that allow 399 yards per game and 6.0 per play. Being offensively-challenged is not going to help Bill Snyder’s club this year.
It certainly didn’t last year when Oklahoma mopped the floor with Kansas State in a 55-0 shutout win on the road. The Sooners outgained the Wildcats 568 to 110 for the game, or by 458 total yards. Keep in mind the Sooners were only 3.5-point favorites in that contest, so it was expected to be competitive.
Oklahoma boasts another elite offense this season that is putting up 40.6 points, 529 yards per game and 7.1 per play against opponents who only allow 27.3 points, 385 yards per game and 5.4 per play. The Sooners will be happy to be playing at home for the first time since their lost to Ohio State on September 17, which was closer than the 21-point margin as the Sooners were only outgained by 39 yards.
Oklahoma is 15-2 under Bob Stoops in Big 12 home openers and 16-1 in the game after playing Texas. The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. They allowed over 500 passing yards to Patrick Mahomes III and Texas Tech last week, and now they’re gonna have their hands full with Baker Mayfield in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
Ole Miss -7
When this line opened with Ole Miss laying more than a touchdown on the road against the Razorbacks, I expected the public to be all over Arkansas. That's exactly what took place and as a result we have seen this line drop. I believe with it now at 7, it's time to strike, though I still don't hate it at 7.5 or even 8.
Arkansas was fortunate to beat Louisiana Tech in the opener at home. Their 41-38 win over TCU looked good at the time, but the Horned Frogs have shown they aren’t that good. TCU’s 4 wins are against SDSU, ISU, SMU and Kansas (barely beat Jayhawks 24-23). They lost by 21 to Texas A&M at home and 29 to Alabama at home.
Asking them to keep it within 10-points against Ole Miss is a lot. Especially after laying everything on the line last week against Alabama and the previous week against Texas A&M. It's extremely difficult to get up for 3 straight games, especially after you lost the previous two. Keep in mind while the Razorbacks were playing the Tide, Ole Miss was resting up on their bye.
While Arkansas could struggle to find the energy and motivation to get up for this one, Ole Miss has some serious revenge on their minds. Last year they lost 52-53 in overtime. The Razorbacks converted a 4th and 25 on a fluke play in overtime. That win by Arkansas ended up being the loss that cost Ole Miss the SEC West title. We have already watched the Rebels deliver in a big revenge spot already this season, as they laid it on Memphis 48-28 after losing to the Tigers last year.
I also think there’s no question that the Rebels are without a doubt the best two loss team in the country. While Arkansas was down by 25 at home to Alabama early, Ole Miss had a 20-point lead at Alabama early. They also had a 20-point lead in their loss to Florida State. Had they held on to those big leads, there's no way this line is only a touchdown.
I just don’t think the Razorbacks can keep pace offensively in this one. I know both teams are averaging a ton of points, but there’s a big difference. Ole Miss is averaging 41.6 ppg against teams that on average are giving up 27.0 ppg. Arkansas on the other hand is averaging 35.0 ppg against teams that are giving up on average 32.3 ppg.
It’s also worth noting how good the Rebels have been at covering in games that are expected to be high scoring. Ole Miss is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 with a total of 63 or more. Winning these games by almost 14 ppg. The Rebels are also 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games off a bye.