Larry Ness
Temple vs. Central Florida
Pick: Central Florida
Scott Frost accepted his first-ever head coaching job this season taking over UCF in Orlando, with the not-so-Golden Knights coming off an 0-12 season in 2015. Frost snapped UCF’s 13-game slide in the season opener, winning 38-0 at home over South Carolina St. That win hardy proved much of anything and the following week UCF lost 51-14 at Michigan, quickly bringing the team back to earth. Howevcer, with Milton in at QB for an injured Holman, UCF almost upset Maryland, falling 30-24 at home in double-OT. That confidence-builder led to back-to-back UCF wins 53-14 at FIU and 47-29 at ECU. Milton hurt his ankle in the FIU game but he had gone 29-of-50 for 433 yards with three TDs and one INT (plus one rush TD), against Maryland and FIU. UCF outgained FIU 501-to-189 in yards and 26-11 in FDs. With Milton out and Holman back in against ECU, the UCF offense struggled (Holman was just 11 of 29 for 156 yards with no TDs and two INTS) but the defense forced five takeaways, leading to that 47-29 victory. UCF was scheduled to host Tulane on Oct 7 (Friday) but because of Hurricane Mathew, it was postponed.
Temple opened 7-0 last season and as the AP’s 21st-ranked team, almost upset Notre Dame, before losing 24-20. The Owls never quite recovered, finishing 10-4, which included a 24-13 loss at Houston in the AAC title game and 32-17 loss to Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl. However, highly-regarded (and much sought after) head coach Matt Ruhle to decide to stay in Philadelphia and expectations were again running high at Temple. That said, Temple is a modest 3-3 (1-1 in the AAC) as it travels to Orlando. QB Philip Walker has completed only 57.0 percent of his throws with eight TDs and nine INTs. He did throw for 445 yards last week at Memphis but his seasonal average is 235.8 YPG. The Owls do own a quality pair of RBs in Ryquell Armstead and Jahad Thomas, who have combined for 562 with 13 rushing TDs. The defense was very good last year allowing 20.1 PPG and is about the same this year, allowing 22.7 PPG.,
However, the improvement at UCF has been dramatic. The Knights allowed 464 YPG and 37.7 PPG last year but so far this year, have allowed 350.6 YPG and 24.8 PPG. Offensively, after scoring only 13.9 PPG on 268 YPG in 2015, UCF is averaging 35.2 PPG on 424.4 YPG. However, getting an unexpected bye last week due to the hurricane, has head coach Frost preaching caution. “I felt really good about our mojo,” Scott Frost told reporters Monday. “Now with a little bit of time off, we’ve got to recapture that. I felt really good about our momentum, and it’s up to us to attack this preparation this week to make sure that we continue that momentum.” Then again, the extra rest should help UCF’s QB duo of senior Justin Holman and freshman McKenzie Milton, who have both been hampered by injuries. Word is, Milton is expected to start, which I like.
Temple’s Philip Walker has yet to develop the accuracy to be trusted on a game-in and game-out basis plus it’s no small detail that PK Austin Jones, who has made 10-of-12 FG attempts in 2016, suffered a knee injury against Memphis and is lost for the season. Frost has quickly established a “winning attitude” at UCF and let’s not forget, this program had gone ‘bowling’ in FIVE of its previous six seasons prior to the school’s 0-12 disaster in 2015. The mojo is back and playing at Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando was once a brutal venue for opposing teams, with UCF going 32-6 SU from 2009-2014. The magic in back here in ‘Disneyland.’
Zack Cimini
Arizona St vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado
ASU ventures for the third consecutive week as double-digit underdogs. Thus far they've been polar opposite in the results department. They were blown out by USC and defeated the Bruins last week.
Colorado on the other hand faltered at USC, and one has to wonder if they may trip in the middle of their Pac-12 conference.
With ASU's Manny Wilkins back in the fold, Colorado will have to play top-notch football.
I believe they do and have ASU circled. In years past Todd Graham was notorious for running up the score on the Buffs. Last year they won 48-23, in 2014 38-24, 2013 54-13, and 2012 51-17.
Grab the Buffs to deliver a little payback on an ASU program that's 5-1 record doesn't have oddsmakers fooled.
River City Sharps
Arizona State +11
This is another one that we have been waiting on as late as possible, but now we’re ready to pull the trigger. Arizona State has been one of the surprise teams in the Pac-12 this season but serious injury questions remain at the QB position as ASU has gone through three starters already and we’re only halfway through the season. Fortunately, the Sun Devils permanent starter is Manny Wilkins and he is expected to play Saturday as ASU travels to Colorado in what now appears to be a key Pac-12 matchup. Colorado is coming off a disappointing 21-17 loss at USC while the Sun Devils beat UCLA 23-20. The Sun Devils have been a cashing machine for their supporters, going 8-2 in their last 10 games against the number and they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs teams with a winning record. This game will be a battle between the solid Colorado defense vs. the high powered ASU offense. We believe ASU has more than enough to stay within this number.
Harry Bondi
SYRACUSE +19.5 over Virginia Tech
The Orangemen’s new up-tempo offense entered last week averaging 30 points per game, but sputtered in a 28-9 road loss to Wake Forest. But that was as a result of Hurricane Matthew as the game was played in torrential downpours. Cuse returns to the fast track of the Carrier Dome today, so look for them to have plenty of firepower to cover this inflated number. Virginia Tech is in a tough spot here as they come in off an impressive upset win over North Carolina and have a huge game with Miami next week. Yes, the Hokie offense is much-improved under new head coach Justin Fuente, but there’s not way they should be laying nearly three TDs on the road, especially when you consider Syracuse has covered five of the last six meetings of the series on this field while Tech has failed to cover its last eight games as a double-digit road chalk.
David Banks
Ohio State @ Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin +10.5
Wisconsin is still clinging to the possibility of a College Football Playoff berth, but a loss to the Buckeyes on Saturday night will drown those chances. The Badgers fell 14-7 to No. 4 Michigan two weeks ago and got an extra week to prepare for the nation’s No. 2 team. Head coach Paul Chryst and his Badgers also get the benefit of playing at home on a Saturday night.
While it seems like a stretch, it is entirely possible that eighth-ranked Wisconsin pulls the upset. Last week, Ohio State never really got on track but still defeated Indiana 38-17. The offense was never really in sync as QB J.T. Barrett connected on just 9-of-21 passes and was forced to run more often than not. Barrett ran 26 times for 137 yards and was the big difference for the Buckeyes.
The Badgers, who are fourth in the nation in scoring defense giving up just 12.2 points per game, will have to slow down Barrett if they are to have success. Against Michigan, Wisconsin held the Wolverines well below their season average. If they can do the same against Ohio State, the Badgers will surely have a chance to win.
It will be up to redshirt freshman quarterback Alex Hornibrook to lead the run-oriented Wisconsin offense. Corey Clement (319 yards, 5 TDs) is the Badgers’ go-to back and a strong running game on Saturday night will do a lot to keep the ball away from the very explosive Buckeyes’ offense. Ohio State averages 53.2 points per game, third-best in the nation. Wisconsin offensive coordinator Joe Rudolph will have to call a great game if the Badgers are going to make a statement.
A Wisconsin loss will definitely eliminate the Badgers from CFP contention. The Badgers would need to beat Nebraska later in the season and win the West Division before winning the Big Ten title in order to have a shot at the CFP. An Ohio State victory keeps them firmly entrenched as a CFP candidate.
Dr Bob
Western Michigan (-12) 42 AKRON 31
Western Michigan should have at least one more week in the top 25, as their spotless record will likely be intact after this game with defensively inept Akron (6.0 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yppl against an average defense). The question in this game is who will Akron’s starting quarterback be. Starter Thomas Woodson has been cleared to play after missing the last two games but word from Akron is that backup Tra’Von Champman is going to start this game for the Zips. My math model favors Western Michigan by 12 points with Chapman at quarterback the entire game and by only 10 points if Woodson was at quarterback. I’m guessing that Woodson would come in if Akron falls behind by too many points. I’d suggest staying away from this game.
Virginia Tech (-19½) 45 SYRACUSE 20
There is a chance that Virginia Tech may suffer a bit of a letdown after last week’s big win over North Carolina but the Hokies should roll in this game if they play at their normal level. Syracuse’s up-tempo offense has averaged only 24 points and 5.5 yards per play against FBS competition and Orange quarterback Eric Dungey will find that those quick, easy passes that make up a lot of the offense won’t be as available against a Virginia Tech defense that plays close to the line of scrimmage cuts off those type of throws. The Hokies’ aggressive defense has held opposing quarterbacks to just 40.8% completions and Dungey will have to go over the top a few times with success in order to generate some points against a defense that’s yielded just 3.9 yards per rushing play and 4.0 yards per pass play so far this season.
Virginia Tech’s offense has been nothing special so far this season bu the Hokies should have good success against a soft Syracuse defense that can’t defend the run (6.5 yprp allowed) or the pass (8.3 yppp allowed). This looks like a blowout to me and I’d prefer to lay the points and hope the Orange don’t suffer a letdown.
MIAMI-FLORIDA (-7) 36 North Carolina 25
Miami lost a heartbreaker to Florida State last week, as a missed extra point lead to a 19-20 loss to their in-state rival. If Miami can bounce back emotionally then the Hurricanes should be able to beat North Carolina.
The Tarheels are a good team with a great offense (when it’s not pouring rain) that more than makes up for a worse than average defense, but Miami is good on both sides of the ball and their defense has been particularly good. The Canes’ stop unit has yielded just 15 points per game and only 4.4 yards per play to 4 FBS opponents that would combine to average 28.0 points and 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team. Miami QB Brad Kaaya has been inconsistent so far this season but if he plays at his average level then Miami should score a good number of points while limiting UNC’s attack. I like Miami at -7 or less and would still lean slightly with the Canes if the line moves up.
OKLAHOMA (-13) 35 Kansas State 17
I was waiting for this line to go from -10 ½ to -10 so I could make Oklahoma a Best Bet. Unfortunately, I wasn’t the only analytically driven person seeing value on the Sooners and that line shot up to -13. No Best Bet but I still like the Sooners to cover at a profitable percentage.
Oklahoma was much better last week than the 5 point win over Texas would suggest, as the Sooners dominated that game 678 yards at 7.9 yards per play to 437 yards at 5.4 yppl for the Longhorns. Being -2 in turnovers made the game much closer than it should have been. Despite their losses to Houston and Ohio State the Sooners are a dominant team with an offense that has averaged 7.4 yards per play with their starters in and a defense that rates at 0.3 yppl better than average when accounting for opposition.
Kansas State has a good defense that’s yielded only 5.5 yppl to 4 FBS teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defense but the Wildcats are 0.6 yppl worse than average offensively (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl). Oklahoma can score points against good defensive teams and Kansas State is not good enough offensively to keep up. I still like Oklahoma here despite the line move and I’d consider the Sooners a Strong Opinion at -11 or less (and I’d play them as a Best Bet if the line does happen to drop to -10).
FLORIDA (-13½) 33 Missouri 22
Luke Del Rio returns at quarterback for Florida after missing a few weeks with an injured knee, but that news is really inconsequential, as Del Rio’s compensated numbers aren’t much better than those of backup Austin Appleby. Florida’s offense is a bit below average and Missouri’s defense is a bit better than average so the Gators are not likely to move the ball at an efficient rate (my model projects just 5.4 yards per play). However, Florida has allowed 7 points or fewer in 4 of their 5 games and have allowed just 4.1 yppl this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team). Missouri’s offense is hit of miss, as the Tigers depend on big pass plays from strong-armed, but inaccurate, quarterback Drew Lock. Lock has completed only 56.8% of his passes but he’s averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt because of the big play nature of the offense (14.8 yards per completion). That creates an interesting matchup against a Florida defense that has held opponents to just 39.0% completions but has been susceptible to the big plays (15.2 yards per completion allowed). It will only take a few big plays for Missouri to be right in this game and I can also see the Tigers being completely shut down if they can’t connect on the deep ball. There is a lot of variance in this game but I’ll lean slightly with Missouri.
West Virginia (-1) 44 TEXAS TECH 43
This ought to be a fun game. Texas Tech has a horrible defense (6.4 yppl against FBS teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense) but the Red Raiders are incredibly good offensively with Patrick Mahomes firing the ball all over the field. Texas Tech averaged over 600 yards per game at 7.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack (5.7 yppl is the national average).
West Virginia is a slightly better overall team, as the Mountaineers combine good offense (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) with a better than average defense that’s allowed just 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team. Texas Tech does have an advantage in projected play differential, which makes up for the small difference in yards per play differential and overall the numbers favor Texas Tech by 1 point. However, the Red Raiders apply to a negative 147-265-7 ATS situation so I’ll call for the Mounties to win by 1 instead.
HOUSTON (-21½) 38 Tulsa 21
The mirage that was highly ranked Houston has faded a bit, as the overrated Cougars lost to Navy last week. Houston is certainly a good team but they’re not a great team and Tulsa’s ability to defend the run should keep the Golden Hurricane fairly competitive. Tulsa’s starting defense has allowed just 3.9 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yprp against an average defense and overall the Hurricane are 0.4 yards per play better than average defensively. That fact is hidden by the 32 points per game that Tulsa has given up but only Ohio State has averaged 5.0 yppl or more against that defense. Houston will certainly top 5.0 yppl (I project 5.9 yppl for the Cougars) but it will be a challenge for the Cougars to win by three touchdowns or more. I also don’t see this game going over the inflated total. I like the Under (73).
Alabama (-13½) 35 Tennessee 21
I wish I had an opinion on this game. My math model favors Alabama by only 13 points and the Vols apply to a negative 34-85-3 ATS letdown situation based on their close loss to Texas A&M last week (in double-OT). Tennessee has played better recently, even in last week’s loss, but Alabama is great on both sides of the football, averaging 7.0 yppl on offense while allowing just 4.6 yppl to their opponents, despite playing a tougher than average schedule of teams. Tennessee is capable of keeping this game competitive if their offense plays like it has the last 2½ games, but I’ll pass.
Ohio State (-10½) 28 WISCONSIN 14
Wisconsin has a very good defense and they are particularly good defending the run. However, the Badgers’ defense is similar to that of Alabama, which is very good against traditional running attacks but can have difficulty against teams that run a read-option attack. Alabama has struggled with Auburn and Texas A&M in recent years and the last time that Wisconsin faced Ohio State’s read-option offense was two years ago and the Buckeyes ran for 310 yards at 8.4 yards per rushing play in a 59-0 win in the Big 10 Championship game. My math model favors Ohio State by 10 points but I don’t think Wisconsin’s run defense is going to be relatively as good against Ohio State’s brand of offense.
On the other side of the ball, I just don’t see a mediocre Wisconsin attack (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) doing much damage against an elite Ohio State defense that’s allowed just 3.8 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team. Ohio State has kept good offensive teams Oklahoma and Indiana in check (just 24 and 17 points allowed, respectively) and they held their other 3 opponents to an average of just 4.3 points. Wisconsin, meanwhile, managed just 16 points against LSU and 7 points against Michigan – the only other really good defensive teams they’ve faced. I like the Buckeyes based on the matchup and wouldn’t be surprised if the score of this game were something like 31-7 – even though the math model says that the line is correct.
SPORTS WAGERS
RICE +3½ -over UTSA
If there was ever a time to take the Rice Owls, now would be the time to do so. Most folks are probably frightened by that idea given the fact the Owls stand at 0-5. Nevertheless, Rice has already played some rigorous matches against some heavyweight foes. The list of opponents for Rice, includes Western Kentucky in their home opener, Baylor and Southern Mississippi, the team this UTSA hung 55 points on last week. That latter score is the drivign force behind the market this week. Rice was smoked in Hattiesburg by the Golden Eagles while the Road Runners made that same team look like Wile E. Coyote. When a team like Texas-San Antonio beats a mid-major heavyweight like Southern Mississippi in the manner which they did, it brings the victors name to the forefront. That is the time to sell.
Before any more festivities take place on behalf of the Road Runners, we feel compelled to highlight the fact that Rice was on a three-game winning streak in this emerging rivalry series before UTSA finally got their first W against the Owls last year in San Antonio. This line is no gift, as Rice knows how to beat this team and furthermore they know how to beat them at their own game, be that Rice like UTSA is a run specialist. Outside of UTSA’s sparkling win over Southern Mississippi, the Road Runners do not own any other signature wins unless you consider a 26-13 victory over Alcorn State to kick off the 2016 season an accolade. UTSA is 2-3 and those three losses came against Arizona State, Colorado State and Old Dominion. Colorado State has gotten off to a terrible start and Arizona State leaves their defense at home so it is safe to say that those close losses are more a reflection of those team’s failing to do their homework as opposed to UTSA bearing any resemblance to a true brier of thorns.
For the one most afflicted, Southern Mississippi, it is very likely they were looking past UTSA in preparation for their journey to LSU this week, as the Golden Eagles saw an opportunity to put themselves on the national stage, negligent of the business at hand with the then 1-3 Road Runners. Rice on the other hand, will enter this contest hungry for their first win against an opponent they know they can beat, as they are quite familiar with them. The Road Runners for metaphorical purposes are more comparable to a spider. When the spotlight is off them and the attention is shifted away they are most dangerous and predatory. However, what we have not seen is what will happen when the public is all over them and how they’ll respond when they become a point of focus against a team with nothing to lose. We’re betting Rice will squash UTSA on their cleats and vanquish this pest. More importantly, a team like UTSA, in celebratory mode, cannot be road chalk.
Tulsa +21 over HOUSTON
Even with Houston’s stock low after they lost on the road as a 17-point favorite against the Navy Midshipmen, the Cougars are still spotting too many points here. The parameters for such an occurrence are certainly conceivable when you consider that the Cougars have a dynamic offense and Greg Ward, Jr. once again remains vastly unnoticed as one of the game’s premier quarterbacks and playmakers in all the land. Now this market is expecting a big response after last week’s shocker and while that all sounds all hunky-dory, the Cougars have a true challenge awaiting them even if this one is played in their own barn.
Over the preceding years, Tulsa has been known as an offensive heavyweight. The Golden Hurricanes have pieced together offensive performances that have been astonishing. Tulsa has ventured out to many hostile environments against elite opponents and they have found ways to score no matter whom was on the other side trying to stop them. Needless to say, this is not Tulsa’s first rodeo. However, what this market sees is that Tulsa was absolutely annihilated, 48-3 when they traveled to Ohio State in September. That result does not typify the Tulsa we are used to normally seeing, as the Golden Hurricanes went to Oklahoma a year ago and scored 35 points against another college football blue blood. We are not here to conjure up ancient history though. We are here to highlight the fact Tulsa has since won their last three and are fully astute to the notion they are likely heading into a shootout with another potent offense. The problem for Tulsa over the years has been their defense. The Golden Hurricanes are essentially a poor man’s Texas Tech, as they live and die by their offense and love to take on a guns blazing approach.
Houston’s defense was certainly exposed at Navy last week when they gave up 46 points to the Mids, a team that is not typically known for lighting up scoreboards. Navy laid out a blueprint that has been in the Golden Hurricanes locker room all week. If Navy can score 46 on Houston, imagine what Tulsa can do with the same forbearance granted to them. Obviously, it isn’t that easy and football does not work that way but the Golden Hurricanes have been pure gold when being spotted massive points and that is not likely to change in this one.
TENNESSEE +13 over Alabama
One of the hidden gems in all of college football is the rivalry known as “The Third Saturday of October” which pits the Tennessee Volunteers of the SEC’s Eastern Division against their old and familiar foe, the defending national champions, America’s #1 team, the Alabama Crimson Tide of the SEC West. These two teams have been meeting on an annual basis for eons and share a long and storied feud that spans the ages. Traditionally, this rivalry has been very nip and tuck but as of late, it’s been all ‘Bama. The Crimson Tide has been a scourge that the Volunteers seemingly cannot quell. The Tide has won the last nine encounters between the two and while Tennessee has certainly scared Alabama in some of these clashes, Alabama has found ways to win even when Tennessee should have emerged victorious. Perhaps last year’s encounter serves as a testament to this, as the Volunteers had Alabama on the ropes in Tuscaloosa but low and behold, they would flounder and ‘Bama would escape by five points, 19-14.
Tennessee has been a bit of a snake-bitten dog in this rivalry and for the most part has lost games against rivals that they normally have a fair chance of winning against. However, 2016 seems to be a year of firsts for the Vols. The Volunteers have orchestrated several double-digit point comebacks reversing their trend of blowing leads of the same cushion only a year ago. Tennessee liberated themselves from the oppression of the Florida Gators, ending the Gators’ run of dominance against Smokey that spanned over a decade. The Volunteers came back from 21 points down to earn the triumph. Fast forward a week later and the Vols would again dispatch another hated enemy in the Georgia Bulldogs, coming back from 17 down to win on a Hail Mary. Even last week, the Volunteers showcased some grit and passion, as they were once again trailing by three possessions on the road at current undefeated Texas A&M, where they came back to equalize and lose a heartbreaker in double overtime.
Alabama has had a far less rugged trail to this point. The Crimson Tide has cruised by all their opponents and has made the competition simply look inferior to this point. Let us not forget that the Crimson Tide has won their last 18 consecutive outings dating back to September 2015 where they last lost against the only team that challenged them this year, Ole Miss. Though Alabama looks like the typical Crimson Tide we are accustomed to seeing, everything can change in a rivalry game as potent as this one. The public’s backing of Alabama is comparable to stock traders investing in a blue-chip option but even blue-chip options are worth selling when they reach a certain point. This game is being billed as the Vols' biggest in a decade and we'll bite at a number this size when the Vols have given Alabama fits with teams much worse than the one they’ll field today.
AKRON +13½ over Western Michigan
We’ve seen Akron in a similar position before against the Marshall Thundering Herd as a substantial road pooch. For those that need a reminder of how things transpired, the Zips hung over 60 points on Marshall in Huntington, routing The Herd in their own backyard. Entering the contest, much of the action was all over the Herd, as many were eager to spot an abundance of points on behalf of a Marshall team that was unproven up until that point.
When looking at Akron’s record of 4-2 comparing it to the pristine 6-0 mark of Western Michigan, the amount of points initially offered seems fairly affable, as the Broncos have stampeded all over their opponents thus far. The Broncos took down Northwestern on the road to kick off the 2016-17 season by a narrow margin but subsequently followed it up with dominant performances against Illinois and Georgia Southern to round off their out of conference schedule. Additionally, the Broncos have also tarred and feathered a very formidable arch nemesis in Central Michigan just a couple weeks back, thus driving the stock in this outfit to new heights.
Don’t get us wrong, Western Michigan is a tremendous football team. They have some exceptional talent in Jamauri Bogan and Zach Terrell but now WMU sports a shiny #23 ranking next to their name in the polls. We have seen this situation before, whereas a team earns a top-25 ranking for the first time and then proceed to crap the bed the very next week. A top-25 ranking also gets a team noticed and gives the market a false sense of security, which is something we can try and capitalize on.
Are we calling for an upset? No. Is it possible? Certainly. The Zips have two losses to two quality opponents in Wisconsin and Appalachian State, two teams that won 10 or more games in 2015. Outside of their losses to these two strong opponents, Akron has cleaned house, which includes its aforementioned assault on Marshall. The talk of the town is Western Michigan being primed to run the table in the MAC after navigating a turbulent docket in the beginning of the season. However with this new found ranking, the Broncos are set up for a huge letdown given the fact they are on the road against an opponent with a winning record and experienced against premium competition. Akron will not enter this contest believing they are going to be trampled, if anything they will endeavor to be the tack that pops the balloon of this Western Michigan team. Akron offers up tremendous value here and we’ll over it.
RUTGERS +155 over Illinois
The last two weeks for Rutgers is perhaps the most depressing results any team has achieved in the history of college football. There is no hyperbole in this proclamation, as the Scarlet Knights have looked more like court jesters with their offense having failed to find the end zone for two consecutive weeks. In addition, Rutgers’ defense has seemingly vanished in the Big Ten’s adaptation of The Blair Witch Project. So, who played the grisly villains in this role? Ohio State and Michigan, two bitter foes whose acrimony should be documented in a featurette of their own. In back to back weeks, both the Wolverines and the Buckeyes shut out Rutgers while beating this team by an average margin of 68 points. At this point and after yielding these results, bettors do not wish to touch this team with a nine-foot pole and are far more enticed into spotting road points with the Fighting Illini of Illinois. That is where we step in.
There has never been a better time to back Rutgers. To think Illinois was giving away a touchdown at one point to this team is a preposterous notion. Illinois is not a good enough team to be spotting points on the road by any stretch, even if it is against ill-perceived Rutgers. Illinois has lost their last four games and perhaps the selling point for this lesser of two evils, according to market perception, is the fact that Illinois hung with Purdue in to overtime last week in Champaign. However, hanging with Purdue and losing in overtime is not a crown achievement by any measure. Purdue is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten that made Maryland look like Alabama. When comparing Rutgers overall body of work with Illinois, it is the Illini that should be avoided at all costs. Contrary to Illinois, Rutgers actually owns a win over a FBS opponent when they defeated New Mexico at home on September 17th. Illinois’ last win came during the first week of the regular season against Murray State, a FCS cupcake. Who was Illinois’ last FBS victory? None other than good old Purdue in November of last year. Purdue should be playing field hockey and not football.
Illinois is not close to being good enough to warrant spotting road points. This number was absolutely driven by the Scarlet Knights’ getting annihilated in back-to-back weeks but that warrants a response too. Rutgers may actually be the superior team here at home getting points. We don’t want the points however, as there is more value in taking the host outright.
Southern Miss +24½ over LSU
Not too long ago, Southern Mississippi was a team that was spotting this many points to opponents but now they are on the receiving end of such an implication. However, LSU is a football program in great disarray while Southern Mississippi is perhaps one of the best mid-major programs currently in the country.
Immediately, such claims will be rebuked with UTSA running wild all over the Golden Eagles last week. In Southern Mississippi's defense, they had LSU on deck and failed to take the Roadrunners seriously. Big upsets are nothing new in college sports and they occur in situational spots just like that one. We are now the beneficiaries of that upset. The lowly Roadrunners, devised a strategy to unleash their rushing attack on a big favorite that got caught napping. Nick Mullens and company found their wings clipped, as they had to play catch-up with UTSA and simply could not do so.
Four pour purpose, the silver lining is that the Golden Eagles stock is low and no one expects them to be relevant in this contest after suffering such an abysmal and embarrassing defeat. Sure, LSU may have the defense to curtail the production of Southern Miss, but we would be hard-pressed to believe the Golden Eagles cannot find the end zone. The real problem is LSU’s offense which has been grossly out of sync and for the most part has struggled miserably to find a rhythm. The question here is not whether LSU can win and if they can control one of the nation’s best passing attacks, it’s whether they can score enough points to cover. We don’t trust the Tigers will be able to shake this intruder off so easily. When you factor in all the candid uncertainties surrounding this Tigers program and their internal dissension in the leadership ranks, LSU is giving away way too many points to a team that is far better than advertised even if they have had a nasty hiccup. That nasty hiccup was influential in providing us with these inflated points.
Brad Wilton
The surprising Eagles of Eastern Michigan head to Peden Stadium to take on the 4-2 Bobcats of Ohio University, and Frank Solich's team needs to be on-guard against the upset, as Eastern Mich also owns a 4-2 straight up mark.
The Eagles own an even better 5-1 mark against the spread this season, including 4 straight covers entering play today.
Meanwhile, Ohio U has failed in all 3 of their home games this season as the favorite, so laying the wood today is not something I am very interested in.
Eastern Michigan has lost 6 straight in this series, with their last outright series win coming in 1999, so you know full well that Chris Creighton will remind his team of this fact.
Full battle for all 4 quarters today in Athens, with the underdog getting the cash at the ticket window.
4* EASTERN MICHIGAN
Brad Wilton
Big, big number posted in the Glass Bowl this Saturday as 1-5 Bowling Green comes calling on 4-1 Toledo.
Suggest laying the big wood with the Rockets who have been blasting off this season with covers in 4 of their 5 games as well.
Toledo is on a 12-3 spread run that dates back to last season, and they have also won 6 straight in this MAC rivalry with a 3-0-1 spread run the past 4, and a 4-1-1 spread run overall in those 6 wins.
The Falcons are allowing over 46 points per game this season, and have not been able to top 27 points in any of those 6 games. The Rockets have posted 31 points or better in all 5 of their contests, so the only choice for this one is to back the big chalk and watch the Rockets numbers go up, up an away!
Toledo in blowout fashion.
3* TOLEDO
Brett Atkins
Your Saturday comp play is to ride the surging V-Tech Hokies as they take on Syracuse in the Carrier Dome on Saturday afternoon.
One thing for sure, both teams played in soggy conditions last weekend in the state of North Carolina, so they will welcome the dry indoor climes this weekend!
As wet as it was at North Carolina last week, it didn't bother the Hokies who put up 34 points on the Tar Heels as they made it 3 straight wins and covers on the season. New coach Justin Fuente has the offense humming with an average of 46 points per game during their winning streak.
That fact should bode well against the Orange defense that is ranked way, way down their at 112th in the land.
Even with the points, Syracuse has failed in 4 of their last 5, including both as the home dog this season.
Gobble, gobble, eat up those points with the Hokies today!
4* VIRGINIA TECH
Chris Jordan
Don't be too upset, but there's not much to the analysis on this Big 10 Toilet Bowl, between cellar dwellers Rutgers and Illinois. I am taking a shot here with the underdog for no rhyme or reason. I'm taking the home underdog as my free play, as Rutgers should win this game.
The Scarlet Knights have been drubbed up and down the field and have played some of the league's better talent. Now it comes down to what will feel like a Maiden Race, and should outclass Illinois.
Yes, Rutgers’ 282.5 yards per game is the worst average of the 128 FBS teams, but the Illni is so bad, it will come in underestimating what the Knights can do. That's where upsets happen.
Rutgers has scored seven points in three weeks, and only totaled 39 yards in Saturday’s loss to Michigan. It will be looking to improve in this game, and should be able to put up some points in this one today, against a much weaker Illinois team.
2* RUTGERS
Bob Valentino
My free play for Saturday is on the Oklahoma Sooners, as they host the Kansas State Wildcats. While I know K-State is capable of scoring some points, I don't see how the Wildcats will keep up with the Sooners’ running back duo of Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, a tandem that may be the best in the country.
Anybody who knows Big 12 football knows the road team has won the last five games in this series. Nevertheless, I have that run hitting a snag this year, with the Sooners fired up after a big win over rival Texas in the Red River Rivalry.
Oklahoma is going to do its best to make a second-half run, and claw its way back into the national picture. After opening the season 2-2, Bob Stoops’ squad has won two straight.
I know the Wildcats lead the Big 12 in total defense (310.2 yards allowed per game) and scoring defense (17.3 allowed points per game). But I also know what Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield is capable of, with that trademark elusiveness. Don't be surprised if he throws for 350-plus yards.
Take the Sooners, as they roll.
5* OKLAHOMA
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Over in the ALCS Game 2.
Yes, Happ is coming off a win over the Texas Rangers in the ALDS, a game in which he allowed one run over five innings. He’ll look to keep rolling against the Indians, who he beat during the regular season with 11 strikeouts over seven innings in his only start against them. Different story now, though, with the pennant on the line and the Tribe up 1-0. He'll give up some runs.
Tomlin was the winning pitcher in Cleveland’s ALDS-clinching Game 3 victory, his first postseason appearance. However, today his chore will be daunting. The righty faced Toronto twice this season and was pelted for seven runs over 10.1 innings, and was tagged for four home runs.
This one goes high.
4* Blue Jays/Indians Over
Bob Balfe
Georgia -13.5
Georgia has young QB who manages the game pretty well, but my concern is with Vanderbilt who just does not have any weapons on offense. This is a team that needs to win low scoring games. This crowd is going to intense and the running game will have big day today. Once the bulldogs get up 14 points there is just no way Vandy can get back in this game.
Indians +110
I think Toronto is in the same spot as last year. If this team can’t get big monster home runs at key times they simply can’t win playoff games against quality playoff pitching. Last night they were shut out which is the worst thing that can happen to this team right now. I see similar results tonight.
3G-Sports
North Carolina vs. Miami Florida
Play: North Carolina +6.5
The home team has covered four straight years, including a 38 pt win last year by NC. This spread is a few points too high and more indicative of what happened last week at Chapel Hill when Virginia Tech won 34-3 in a very ugly game. Before we do any downgrading of UNC, that score was all about playing under the wrath of Hurricane Matthew. UNC QB Mitch Tribusky had led the team to four straight wins before that and threw for over 400 yards in the last three, including the upset win at FSU. I'll glady take the underdog with NC plus the points here on Saturday afternoon in what I expect to be a shooutout.