Chase Diamond
New Mexico St vs. Idaho
Play: Idaho -4
Two teams that might be missed by the novice gambler but I have found some value here as the 2-3 New Mexico State take on the 3-3 Idaho Vandals. There are some good angles backing Idaho here today one is if New Mexico State is not getting 7 or more points and are matched up against a team seeking revenge they are a money burning 0-8 ATS off a home game. Idaho got beat last year versus the Aggies The team seeking revenge is 9-3 75% ATS since 2002.
Nelly
Northern Illinois + over Central Michigan
These squads were among four teams tied on top of the MAC West last season with Northern Illinois getting the tiebreaker to the MAC Championship game. Central Michigan won the head-to-head matchup with a 29-19 result early in the season in a game where both offenses struggled. After a 0-4 start the Huskies have split the past two games with a win at Ball State and a competitive loss at Western Michigan last week, a one-point game late in the third quarter before the Broncos pulled away. After losing their quarterback early in the season the Huskies seem to be finding some rhythm again with option #3 senior Anthony Maddie. Central Michigan squeaked out a win over the Ball State team that NIU beat, getting a fourth quarter interception return touchdown that was the difference in the game. Given Central Michigan's preference to throw, the Huskies look like a home underdog with a potential rushing edge, while holding a great home dog history going 11-4 ATS in that role since 1998.
Ross Benjamin
South Alabama @ Arkansas State
Play: South Alabama +5.5
South Alabama already owns a pair of double digit underdog upset wins in 2016. They opened the year by winning at Mississippi State 21-20 as a mammoth 28.0-point underdog. They also knocked then undefeated and nationally ranked San Diego State by a decisive 42-24 score, and did so as a sizable 19.5-point underdog. With that in mind, it’s certainly not unfathomable to think, covering as an underdog against a fellow Sun Belt 1-4 team is well within the realm of possibility. As a matter of fact, I see it as highly probable. Bet on South Alabama plus the points for a 5* wager.
The Prez
Kansas St vs, Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -13
Two Big 12 programs that are intertwined in many ways and quite familiar with each other take the field in Norman on Saturday. Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma Sooners (-13, 58) take to the Gaylord Family field at 12:00 PM ET, Saturday, October 15, 2016 at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman.
Wildcats
Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder mentored Oklahoma bench boss Bob Stoops in his youth and despite the belief that the two remain friends nothing could be further from the truth. The claims of former Kansas State coaches are that Stoops undermined the recruiting plan of Snyder when he took the job at Oklahoma over a decade ago. This series has been filled with upsets and road team victories over the years, most recently wins by the ‘Cats in 2012 and 2014, against ranked OU squads.
This, however, isn’t your father’s Kansas State crew. Snyder’s troupe is attempting to find a way to win on the road, something they have neglected to achieve this season. Kansas State fell to an overrated Pac 12 Stanford squad by double-digits in September and lost a closely contested affair to West Virginia. This year’s KSU squad is much like last seasons. They don’t have an explosive offense or a quarterback that is a threat downfield, via the pass. A season ago, Oklahoma defeated Kansas State 55-0 in Manhattan, and the two teams very much resemble last year’s squads to a different result this Saturday is unreasonable to expect.
The Cats are coming off a 44-38 win over the defenseless Texas Tech Red Raiders. Quarterback Jesse Ertz has thrown for a mere five touchdowns this season and are not going to out-offense teams with more talent, e.g. Oklahoma. The Cats will only stay close in this event if their defense holds serve with their season average of allowing 17.6 points per game.
Sooners
Quarterback Baker Mayfield has found his mojo after a tough start to the 2016 campaign. Mayfield threw for nearly 400 yards a week ago in a 45-40 win over Texas in Dallas. Statistically the Sooners appear to be porous on the defensive side of the ball allowing over 36 points and 400 yards per game. These numbers are deceiving considering the schedule that OU has played.
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The Wildcats have won outright, as significant underdogs on the last two trips to Norman, and the results have not set well with Stoops and his supporters. Last year’s 55-point margin of victory is much more likely this Saturday than another Kansas State outright road win.
Cal Sports
Kansas St vs, Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -13
The Sooners have taken a beating in the public’s eye with 2 losses in their first three games this year and then “just” getting by Texas last week failing to cover as a 14-point favorite in a 45-40 win. Turnovers have clearly been the downside for Oklahoma as they were -1 in their loss to Houston, -2 versus Ohio St and -2 last week against the Longhorns. The difference this week is that both he Houston game and Texas game were at neutral setting while the Buckeyes are one of the countries elite at forcing turnovers. Kansas St is even in TO’s in their 2 road appearances and their offense has only scored 13 and 16 points respectively. Look for a feisty Sooners squad that is returning home for the first time since their loss to Ohio St to takeout not only their frustrations for that game but also for a 31-30 home loss to these Wildcats the last time they visited Norman (OU was ranked #11 and 7-point favorite in 2014).
Dwayne Bryant
Ohio St vs, Wisconsin
Play: Ohio St -10.5
Another matchup of two Top 10 teams takes place at Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday night, as the #2 Ohio State Buckeyes visit the #10 Wisconsin Badgers. Kickoff is set for 8 PM ET. The game will be televised on ABC.
When you see a pair of Top 10 teams squaring off and a double-digit point spread, one's normal first reaction is to grab the points with the dog. I mean, after all, both teams have to be excellent to be ranked in the Top 10 & being ranked so highly and so closely should mean a close game. Right? Not always.
I expect Ohio State to cover the number here. Yes, the Badgers play some pretty good defense. Their defense really stepped up at Michigan two weeks ago, but the Wolverines dominated that game. The only reason the final margin wasn't more than a touchdown was the fact that two Michigan kickers combined to go 0-for-3 on field goal tries. Hidden in that close scoreboard were the facts that Michigan outgained the Badgers 349 total yards to 159, and were +2 in turnover margin.
So as you can see, the problem is not Wisconsin's defense, but rather their offense. 159 total yards of offense is pathetic. QB Alex Hornibrook was just 9-for-25 for 88 yards and three interceptions against Michigan. He isn't going to find the sledding any easier against this Ohio State stop unit. Wisconsin will have trouble sustaining drives. I expect plenty of three-and-outs for the Badgers offense. That puts the defense on the field a lot with little rest, and they will wear down in the latter stages of this contest.
With the Badgers playing in front of the home crowd in a night game, I expect them to feed off the crowd early on. But as I said, lack of sustained drives will wear the Wisconsin defense down late in the game. And that's when the Buckeyes get the necessary points to cover the double-digits. I'm calling it: Ohio State 27, Wisconsin 13. Your Saturday free play is OHIO STATE minus the points.
Bruce Marshall
Nevada +2.5
Safe to say no ESPN Game Day sightings expected in San Jose, where the locals have already tuned out the 1-5 Spartans in favor of the hometown NHL Sharks. Not a vintage Nevada side, either. But Wolf Pack looks like it can cobble together another minor bowl bid behind rugged RB Butler (343 YR last 2). SJSU QB Potter missing the diversion that star RB Ervin provided LY .
Pat Hawkins
Tulsa vs. Houston
Play: Tulsa +21.5
This is a classic "bubble burst" spot against Houston, as their national title chances just came crashing down. Enter Tulsa, who is 6-0 ATS when getting 20 or more points as Conference dogs. The visiting team had cov
ROB VINCILETTI
Florida International vs. Charlotte
Play: Charlotte +5½
Charlotte cashed big for us last week winning straight up as a 13 point dog. Florida International is in one of the best play against system we have. Play against conference road favorites off back to back conference dog wins if they were a losing team last season. FIU is off a pair of revenge wins over UTEP and FLA. Atlantic. They will be certainly looking ahead to a big revenge game on deck vs LA. Tech. They lost at U.mass this year and cant be trusted to take 2 straight on the road. Take the points in this one with Charlotte.
BRANDON LEE
Cubs -1½ +116
I typically don't like playing the -1.5 run line in the postseason, but I'm also not a fan of laying this kind of juice on the money line. I really like the Cubs chances of winning here by 2 or more runs. Chicago will send out their ace Jon Lester, who was sensational in his lone start against the Giants, allowing just 5 hits over 8 shutout innings. It's well known the Dodgers don't hit left-handed pitching well and Lester allowed just 1 run over 15 innings in 2 starts against them this season. The Cubs offense was quiet against SF, but should come alive here. LA starter Kenta Maeda struggled to handle the pressure of the postseason, giving up 4 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks in just 3 innings against the Nationals, carrying over his poor finish to the regular season.
MATT MOHR
Houston -21
The 4-1 Tulsa Golden Hurricane travel south to Houston to play the 5-1 Houston Cougars in a matchup where many cappers are staying away from but I see value.
You will hear the term letdown for Houston after losing to Navy last week that put their playoff chances in limbo. I don't see a letdown here, I expect to see a team that will play loose as the burden of the perfect season is off of them and they can focus on just playing ball. This will be a statement game for the rest of the country and the playoff committee.
Tulsa is a team that offensively looks good on paper; 39 points and 472 yards per game with remarkable balance(242 pass/232 run). Looks solid right, when you look under the covers you see they are putting up points against the 101st ranked strength of schedule; SMU, Fresno State, NC A&T...... On the defensive side of the ball Tulsa struggles to stop anyone giving up 32 points and 387 yards per game. In the last 2 games they have surrendered 40 and 41 points respectively in narrow victories. They also own the 71st ranked pass defense so Houston QB Greg Ward Jr. is licking his chops after throwing 2 picks last week. Tulsa has also struggles in the red zone only scoring TD's on 50% of their trips and leaving points on the filed is not an option against Houston. This will be a tough matchup in the red zone as Houston has the 3rd rank touchdown defense success.
Even after a loss to Navy, Houston is still Houston with a great coach, superior athletes, explosive offense and tough defense. The Cougars are averaging 43.5 points per game while giving up 17. The matchup of the day is going to be Houston's highly rated run defense that is giving up a mere 86 yards per game against the strength of Tulsa which is the run. Houston's front 7 will dominate as Tulsa has not seen a group like this to date which includes playing Ohio State. This is a big step up in class for Tulsa and I don't expect them to be able to match the intensity on either side of the ball.
DAVE PRICE
Washington State -7
The Washington State Cougars are legitimate Pac-12 title contenders and have proven that the past two games with two of the best performances I've seen all season. They beat Oregon 51-33 at home and Stanford 42-16 on the road. The Cardinal didn't score their first touchdown until late in the 4th quarter as this Wazzu defense is vastly improved this season. The offense is hitting on all cylinders, as usual, putting up 43.8 points and 531 yards per game. UCLA is broken right now with just a 3-3 record. It lost 20-23 at Arizona State last week despite being 7-point favorites. Star QB Josh Rosen got hurt in that contest, and he is questionable to return this week. Even if he does, he won't be 100%. The Bruins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Cougars are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
The Real Animal
Maryland -5
Minnesota is without QB Mitch Leidner due to a concussion he sustained late in the Iowa loss last week. I thought the Gophers were in a great spot last week but they could only muster seven points. Junior QB Conor Rhoda is expected to make his first start and he’s only thrown two collegiate passes! Maryland QB Perry Hills is listed as questionable but late word has it he should be ready to go. But Tyrrell Pigrome is the future at College Park and has played in every game and is a very good runner. I know Maryland got blown apart at Penn State but I think the Terrapins will rebound here. Maryland went from 400 rushing yards against Purdue to 170 against the Lions and defensively allowed Penn State 372 rushing yards after holding the Boilermakers to just 10. Leidner is everything to the Gophers offensively and even with him they have struggled to produce points. Take the Turtles who are averaging 51 points at home this year.
OC Dooley
Lafayette / Army Over 46.5
It was exactly a week ago when Army lost an extremely low scoring 13-6 contest played on the road at Duke which is located in the state of North Carolina. It was exactly a week ago when Hurricane Matthew was pounding the Tarheel state where every game played stayed "under" the number. The weather for Amry who is back at "home" today is radically IMPROVED and their triple-option offense that features a quarterback "platoon" will be difficult from an opponent from the Division I-AA level to defend. For those that watch this early CBS Sports Network cable telecast keep an eye out for Lafayette wide receiver Matt Mrazek who is playing with a chip on his shoulder after NOT being recruited by a major college program. Mrazek ranks NUMBER TWO in all of Division I-AA with 8 touchdown receptions and Lafayette as a team has scored on 86-PERCENT of their "red zone" opportunities. Lafayette SENIOR QUARTERBACK Drew Reed also returns today from a previous injury
OC Dooley
Lafayette / Army Over 46.5
It was exactly a week ago when Army lost an extremely low scoring 13-6 contest played on the road at Duke which is located in the state of North Carolina. It was exactly a week ago when Hurricane Matthew was pounding the Tarheel state where every game played stayed "under" the number. The weather for Amry who is back at "home" today is radically IMPROVED and their triple-option offense that features a quarterback "platoon" will be difficult from an opponent from the Division I-AA level to defend. For those that watch this early CBS Sports Network cable telecast keep an eye out for Lafayette wide receiver Matt Mrazek who is playing with a chip on his shoulder after NOT being recruited by a major college program. Mrazek ranks NUMBER TWO in all of Division I-AA with 8 touchdown receptions and Lafayette as a team has scored on 86-PERCENT of their "red zone" opportunities. Lafayette SENIOR QUARTERBACK Drew Reed also returns today from a previous injury