Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, October 1st, 2016

Harry Bondi

NORTHWESTERN (+13) over Iowa

We used Northwestern as a winner two weeks ago when they took out Duke and now we’ll jump on the Wildcats in their preferred role as a road underdog. Since 1992, Northwestern is 73-53 (68%) when catching points away from home, mostly because they tend to play good defense and keep their games low-scoring. That has certainly been the case this year as all four of their games have gone under with no team scoring more than 24 points. Having said that, we’ll gladly take the two TD head start here against an Iowa offense that could only muster a total of 35 points in the last two weeks vs. North Dakota State and Rutgers. Hawkeyes are also a dismal 5-11 ATS as a double-digit home favorite and have covered just six of their last 17 home games overall.

Dave Cokin

New Mexico -9

Kenny Potter's status for this game is uncertain. The San Jose State QB was unable to go against Iowa State and he's very iffy as of now for this week's game. He has a leg injury that won't require surgery but if the swelling doesn't subside, he won't be able to play. If that's the case, then it's freshman Josh Love, and the rookie really struggled at Iowa State.

Beyond that, the Spartans have absolutely horrific on defense. They've been outgained by a whopping 547 yards in the losses to Tulsa, Utah and San Jose State. The defensive rushing stats in those games were abysmal, 5.5 yards per carry and all three opponents went run-heavy on San Jose. That will definitely be the case Saturday as New Mexico prefers to run out of their option as much as possible.

I think we're catching a good spot here, as New Mexico has had an extra week to prep and should be extremely motivated after losing two games they really should have won. The bye week should be a real plus coming out of those two tough losses, and New Mexico also has a revenge motive from a poor showing against the Spartans last season.

It looks like a good matchup for the Lobos in terms of strength vs. weakness, and if Porter is unable to play, this is a bargain price in my opinion even with the bump from where it opened on Sunday night. I'll therefore go ahead and lay it right now with New Mexico.

Dave Cokin

Boise St -20

Revenge is a frequently overrated motive, regardless of the sport. Knee jerking to a team just because it’s out to avenge a loss in the prior meeting isn’t an automatic path to the winner’s circle.

But there are certainly some revenge scenarios that warrant more than a passing glance, and I think we have one this Saturday when Boise State plays host to Utah State. The Broncos won’t need any kind of pep talk for this game. All they’ll have to do is think back to what took place last season at Logan. Boise State played one of the worst games in the proud history of its football program.

Utah State didn’t just beat the Broncos, they pulverized them. Boise State kicked an early field goal, and then the floodgates swung wide open. The Aggies capitalized on repeated errors by Boise and the game was over by halftime, with Utah State heading to the break up 45-10. By the time the dust settled after four quarters, the Broncos had turned the ball over an unfathomable eight times and went home with their collective tails between their legs. Final score, Utah State 52-26 and it wasn’t even that close.

I think a payback is in order on Saturday night. Utah State is 2-2 to start the season, but the wins were against Weber State and a pretty lousy Arkansas State entry that is now 0-4 and just lost to Central Arkansas. The Aggies were able to run the football for only 91 yards on 58 carries in losses to USC and Air Force. That’s just not going to get it done against the Broncos.

Boise State is off to a good start at 3-0 and I really like what I’m seeing from this team up front on defense. I don’t see Utah State having any success overland here, which means the onus will be on Aggies QB Kent Myers to have a big game throwing the football if the road team is going to compete here. Myers had a very good 2015 campaign, but the simple truth is he has not been playing anywhere near that level thus far in 2016.

It looks to me like Utah State is in the wrong place at the wrong time this week. I fully expect the hosts to be very fired up for this game, and off what I’ve seen from these two teams, there’s nothing to really suggest this is going to be close. The oddsmakers have done their job by assigning the Broncos a big impost, but I see Boise State as the likely winner here, and by enough of a margin to cover that huge spread.

Sleepyj

Iowa St. +16.5

I learned some hard lessons about betting on teams going into Ames, Iowa...First off it's been a rule of thumb of mine...Don't bet teams going into Ames...It's just that simple...Either fade or pass...Well I'm going to fade the Bears here on the road...I know they are 4-0, but they haven't looked razor sharp...Laying this kind of number for a conference game is tough...The Cyclones always get up for big games and they should keep this one relatively close IMO....Baylor is a fast track kind of team...Playing on grass wont suit them well...The weather in Ames can change on a dime during the game and switch back with out notice...It's just a tough place to play and Iowa St. knows how things change...The crowd is always jamming and the fans will pack that place to the top for this one...Iowa State's record is just 1-3, but they have been tested this season...They had two tough road games Vs. Iowa and TCU....they have been getting better as the games have played out and a big 44-10 victory at home over San Jose St should give them a boost here...Iowa St has ironed out the QB issues they had and the running game is rather solid...Baylor has one of the worst rush defense in the nation...The last three games they gave up 176, 234, 213 yards on the ground...That's like 4.9/5+ypc....Not good at all and with a team that likes to run that can keep the Cyclones moving the chains and getting points on the board...I threw the first game out for Baylor which was Northwestern State....So it's plain as day that Baylor can't stop the run...The defense looks good, but they played bad teams...SMU, Rice & Northwestern St could be some of the weakest teams in the country....Yes they beat Oklahoma St, but that game was at home...That was a 7 pt game going into the 4th qtr and Oklahoma St turned the ball over 4 times...4 times !!..So just look at that and think a bit....Now give a team who plays at home and runs the ball well against a team that has been gifted extra possessions and easy teams to face....Baylor has actually gained a bunch of turnovers this year...They rank 14th and are +6 already this year....They have been lucky to get those turnovers IMO.....I can go on and on about some of the stats I uncovered..Bottom line is my number for this game was Baylor -12.5....I'll grab the +16.5 here.....Total sits at 60.5...that's not very high IMO....I can see one of those 38-23 type of games....This will be a true test for Baylor, but this is one tough place to play...I learned my lesson years back about laying Double Digits here with teams that look superior..It doesn't work out well..Small wager on the Cyclones.

Jesse Schule

Arizona St vs. USC
Play: Over 64

The Trojans are 1-3, hosting the undefeated Arizona State Sun Devils, and to the untrained eye it might seem odd that USC is a double-digit favorite here. This game actually reminds me of last season, when a 3-3 USC squad was a home favorite to the then #3 ranked Utah Utes who were 6-0 at the time. The Trojans went on to win that game by a score of 42-24, and went on to win four of their next five games, punching a ticket to the PAC12 Championship game versus Stanford. You can bet that Trojans coach Clay Helton will remind his team of that heading into this weekend's game. Arizona State has looked terrible on defense, especially last week allowing Cal to gain a total of 637 yards. They managed to come back from a double-digit deficit by scoring 31 points in the fourth quarter to remain undefeated. The Trojans can take a lot of positives from last Friday's loss at Utah. Freshman quarterback Sam Darnold threw for 253 yards on 18-of-26 passing, and ran for 41 yards and a TD. He looked pretty solid in his first start on the road against one of the top defenses in the conference. Arizona State has failed to cover in seven of it's last nine road games, and the over is 6-1 in it's last seven overall.

Harry Bondi

FLORIDA (-10) over Vanderbilt

Got to feel bad for the Commodores here, who have to face a pissed off Florida team that will be looking to take out its frustrations from last week’s collapse against Tennessee. Despite giving up 38 unanswered points and blowing a 21-0 lead to the Vols, the Gator defense is for real and will have no problem limiting a Vandy team that is a bit overrated. The Commodores are 2-2, but in the two losses they scored a total of 17 points against Georgia Tech and South Carolina, while they were out yarded in the two wins vs. Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky. The Gators have won 23 of 24 in the series overall and don’t mind laying big chalk on the road in conference, having covered six straight as a favorite of a TD or more in that role. Lay the lumber in a Gator rout!

DAVE COKIN

CENTRAL FLORIDA AT EAST CAROLINA
PLAY: CENTRAL FLORIDA +3.5

Arrow up vs. arrow down here as Central Florida visits East Carolina. The Knights are gaining confidence with each passing week and are off their best game in ages. The Pirates sent out a sell signal last week with an absolutely horrible effort at Virginia Tech following the blown game at South Carolina.

I’m going to be very interested to see which East Carolina shows up here. Scottie Montgomery is a first-year head coach and let’s just say he warranted a failing grade for what took place last week. The Pirates were off a very frustrating loss in a game they clearly should have won vs. South Carolina. I was anxious to see what the reaction would be in the next game, and it did not take long to get the answer. East Carolina got obliterated by Virginia Tech.

That doesn’t mean Montgomery won’t be able to rally the troops this Saturday. One thing I know Montgomery will be doing is assigning extra duty to some of his starting position players, who will now also be seeing action on special teams. The main task for the coach is to convince his players that their real season starts here as conference play gets underway.

Central Florida was terrific last week in ending its long losing streak against fellow FBS opposition. UCF put a bunch of points on the scoreboard but honestly, I was more impressed by the defense, which is actually putting together some very impressive numbers in the early going.

There’s an injury of note in this game. The Pirates will have to do without nose tackle Demetri McGill, and I fully expect UCF to test the ECU defensive interior with a consistent ground attack.

In terms of the numbers, I’ve made some substantial adjustments from where my pre-season power ratings were on each of these teams. There’s no question Scott Frost has had a major positive impact on the Knights in his maiden voyage as a head coach. I thought UCF would be improved, particularly with so many experienced players, but they’ve been far more impressive than I originally anticipated.

East Carolina is a disappointment to me, even though the Pirates do own that nice home win against North Carolina State. I thought ECU was a little fortunate against the Wolfpack. Their red zone inefficiency in the loss to South Carolina was alarming, and I certainly didn’t like anything about their performance at Blacksburg last Saturday. The pass rush on defense has been mostly invisible and QB Philip Nelson, while accumulating big stats, is doing a bad job of simply being unwilling to throw the ball away when he can’t find an open target.

I priced this game at -1.5 with East Carolina the favorite. So with the line now mostly ECU -3.5, there’s still an edge to be had with the dog, but not as much as there was at the opener. Therefore, this one is currently in the added opinion column, but the view from here is that Central Florida plus the points has a good shot to be the right side in what could be a battle to the wire.

Teddy Covers

Central Florida at East Carolina
Play: Central Florida +4

UCF went 0-12 last year. Ten of their losses came by two touchdowns or more, as they should have – George O’Leary’s final season was a complete disaster. That included a late November 44-7 home loss at the hands of East Carolina. That was then, this is now.

First-year head coach Scott Frost has made it very clear what he wants to install for the Golden Knights. The former Oregon Ducks offensive coordinator wants to become “Oregon of the East." Frost found his starting quarterback two weeks ago when previous starter Justin Holman got hurt. In two games behind center, frosh McKenzie Milton; a dual threat dynamo against both Maryland and FIU.

Here’s Frost’s quote: “One of the things that drew me to the job is I knew I could run a version of our offense that was practically identical to Oregon's because we can recruit that type of player here. I don't think you could run Oregon's offense at Wisconsin; I don't know if you would get enough guys that can run well enough to do it. In Orlando, Florida, there's fast guys in high schools in every direction in close proximity that are already running systems in high school that are similar to this and should want to play in it.”

When a formerly dismal team starts to play competitive football, then starts to win, it becomes contagious – these are bet-on teams week after week, until the markets show that they’ve caught up. Considering that UCF has covered the spread (in regulation) by double digit margins in each of the last two weeks, I’m not convinced in the slightest that the markets have caught up with their improvement.

East Carolina has faced two solid offensive teams; NC State and Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack gained more than 200 yards on the ground AND through the air against East Carolina, and could have scored far more than the 30 points that they did. Last week, Virginia Tech hung 54 on this stop unit, another balanced attack, and the defense didn’t create a turnover. Expect East Carolina to have a tough time getting stops here; bad news for any favorite.

The Pirates are coming off back-to-back physical, demoralizing losses, and they’ve yet to beat a FBS team by more than a field goal this year. A program in transition following the shocking firing of Ruffin McNeill last December has no business laying more than a field goal to a bet-on UCF squad on Saturday.

Rob Veno

Wake Forest at NC State
Play: Under 48.5

On a perfect 3-0 run with the ACC free play involving the Pittsburgh Panthers, I’ll shift away and tap into an Atlantic Division contest. Situational edge here goes to the Wolfpack which enter the game off of a bye week. Last season NC State had the same bye week situation and won 35-17 in Winston Salem. That could be where the similarities end because at this juncture of the season, the fundamentals in this matchup look a bit different.

In their late October meeting last season, NC State running back Matt Dayes ran wild scoring two touchdowns of 50+ yards and gaining 205 overall. Dayes and the NC State ground game have had a strong start to this season (210.7 ypg) but the Wake Forest run defense has been a rock allowing just 88.5 rypg and 2.7 per carry. What has been vulnerable is the Demon Deacons pass defense which has yielded an average of 414 ypg in contests versus Duke and Indiana. Wake Forest’s other two games were against triple-option Tulane and FCS heavily run oriented Delaware. NC State’s first-year starting quarterback (Boise State transfer) Ryan Finley has completed an amazing 76.3% of his passes thus far with six touchdowns and no interceptions. If Wake Forest is able to focus on and contain Dayes and the ground game, Finley can hurt their weak secondary through the air.

Wake is off of a 33-28 road underdog victory last week against Indiana but the statistical line shows some very concerning numbers. Every team would love to be +5 in turnover margin like the Deacons were last Saturday but to have that monster advantage and only win by five points indicates some flaws. The most glaring was the 611 total yards Indiana gained as they shredded the Wake Forest defense for 7.7 yards per play and 17.7 per pass completion.

The contest last week in Bloomington is somewhat of an aberration because of the all the big plays. Wake Forest had the five takeaways, a blocked FG, ran an interception back for a TD and scored 33 points despite 11 of their 15 possessions gaining only 22 yards or less. Their run defense was again stout vs. a very capable IU ground attack led by Devine Redding who had his string of five straight 100+ yard games ended.

NC State’s offense will be facing a major step up in class here after facing three poor defensive units in a row and they may be hard pressed to run against Wake Forest the way they did last year primarily because the Deacons no longer have to defend the read option. Having to account for Jacoby Brisset’s running ability last year did open things up for other NC State runners but Finley isn't much of a running threat. I like the way the Wolfpack defense is playing right now and look for them to keep Wake's point production to much less than last week. Money has already taken a bite out of this total but still feel good about a recommendation on the under.

Alex Smith

Illinois at Nebraska
Play: Nebraska -21

It's homecoming Weekend in Lincoln as the Nebraska Cornhuskers play host to Illinois. Nebraska improved to 4-0 after a 24-13 victory at Northwestern last week. With the win, Nebraska entered the AP ranking at No. 20 for the first time since the end of the 2014 season. Quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. had a monster game, picking up a 379 total yards while running back Terell Newby chipped in 69 yards and a touchdown.

Illinois is coming off a bye week after dropping a 34-10 decision to Western Michigan. The Broncos outrushed the Illini by a whopping 287-3 margin. Despite efforts in the first two games to spark their rushing attack, Lovie Smith's squad attempted 43 passes compared to 10 rushes due to playing from behind the entire game. Smith clearly has his work cut out for him moving forward. In blowout losses to North Carolina and Western Michigan, the Illini were outgained 899-624 (7.3 ypp-4.8 ypp). It's not a positive sign considering the Illini actually outgained their opponents last year 5.9-5.6 ypp.

The Illini have been money burners as road underdogs over the last four seasons with a dismal 3-12 ATS mark. And while this pointspread is rarified air (Ilinois was catching a modest +10.5 at Iowa LY), Nebraska holds significant talent edges on both sides of the ball. Also note that Illinois won last year's matchup, 14-13 in Champaign. Nebraska was able to win the rushing battle (187-131) but Armstrong Jr. had his worst game of the season (10-of-31, 105 yards) and Nebraska coughed up the ball on multiple occasions. The Cornhuskers are in a far better place and look primed to dominate this matchup start to finish.

Raphael Esparza

Rutgers / Ohio State Over 58

This play is all on the Ohio St. offense, and the Buckeyes will have no trouble scoring on the Rutgers defense. Ohio St had two weeks to prepare for a struggling Rutgers team, and Saturday afternoon I see the Buckeyes scoring around 49 points or more. Rutgers will score 10 points or more, and I see all of their points coming in the second half as the Buckeyes will have their 2nd or even 3rd unit in to close out this game. Rutgers only scored 7 points last week against Iowa, so that does scare me, but again I see Ohio St scoring all the points in this one and the 'Over' is the best bet in this game.

Alan Harris

Baylor / Iowa St Under 60

Two teams that have been trending to the under will meet when the Baylor Bears hit the road to take on the Iowa St. Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, IA on Saturday afternoon. Baylor has posted a 5-2 record in their last seven road games where they faced a team with a losing record at home, and they have that same 5-2 record to the under in their last seven Big 12 games. They have also gone a perfect 5-0 to the under in their last four games following a straight up win, and they have stayed under the total in their last five games versus a team with a losing record dating back to the 2015 season. Iowa St. has been an under team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone 4-1 to the under in their last five games played in the month of October and they have that same 4-1 record to the under in their last five games following a game where they scored 40 points or more. They are also 7-2-1 to the under in their last 10 home games, and they have stayed under the total in 14 of their last 20 games overall. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone 5-2-1 to the under in their last eight head-to-head meetings, and that's where we'll have our play as our numbers have both teams struggling to put points on the board in Ames on Saturday afternoon.

Jason Sharpe

Michigan (-10.5) over Wisconsin

It looks like Wisconsin has played the much tougher schedule between these two teams this year, and there's no doubt that the Badgers have faced a more difficult group of opponents, but that edge isn't nearly as big as it looks, either. Wisconsin already has two strong wins over both LSU and Michigan State, but it seems those victories now has lost some shine considering how poorly those two teams have played so far this year. Wisconsin went into East Lansing last weekend and got an easy 30-6 win over MSU, but they also caught the Spartans fresh off a big win the previous week against Notre Dame. It's not easy for a CFB team to play back-to-back big games like MSU was dealing with last Saturday and it showed. That's the issue at hand here in this game for Wisconsin as they now have to turn around a week later and travel back to Michigan to take on a very good Wolverines team. Michigan has definitely had a favorable schedule to begin their year, but a few of their opponents so far in Colorado and Central Florida have shown to be a lot better than expected in their other games this season, making Michigan's wins over both look more impressive. The Wolverines are getting healthier as they got back arguably their best player last game in All-American cornerback Jourdan Lewis, and it made all the difference in the world to the Wolverines defense as it shut down Penn State. With Lewis back in the secondary, the Michigan defense will now go to elite levels. The biggest difference in this game, though, will be a combination of two things, playing in front of over 110,000+ home fans, which is huge, and also the Wolverines special teams has been exceptionally strong this season. Those two things should be enough to give them a two-touchdown-or-more win here in this one. Take Michigan minus the points over Wisconsin.

Cal Sports

Louisville at Clemson
Play: Clemson +2

There’s not much room left on the bandwagon for the Louisville Cardinals after their dismantling of Florida St, their 4-0 start and the impressive leap from their pre-season rankings of #19 in the AP up to the #3 spot. All of which is because of a very impressive offense and ONE win versus a quality opponent which by the way came at home.

Some may say the Cardinals have impressive road wins beating Syracuse 62-28 and Marshall 59-28, but I rebut by saying that Louisville ran up the score versus the Orange defense which was my #91 ranked unit at the time and the Herd defense which I have ranked #82. Now UL faces my #2 defense and they do so playing on the road for a second straight week and third time in a month.

This Cardinals offense is by far the best Clemson has faced but they played two top forty offensive teams holding Auburn and Ga Tech to 203 YPG and 10 PPG and both of those games were on the road and now of course the Tigers are at home.

The coaches poll still has Clemson #3 and Louisville #4 and let’s not forget that the Tigers are 35-2 at home the last 4+ seasons including 18 straight wins and are 22-1 their last 23 games with the only loss coming in the National Championship game, a game in which they had a 77-yard edge and finished with 13 more first-downs.

The reality is this is a huge over-reaction as Clemson would have been about a TD favorite based on the pre-season Game of the Year lines and despite the Tigers also being 4-0, beating Auburn and Ga Tech on the road, still be higher in the coach’s poll, playing at home with extra rest of a Thursday Night game and facing Louisville on a second straight road game they are now a dog?

The Cardinals’ bubble bursts this week!