Buster Sports
Memphis at Mississippi
Play: Memphis +14.5
Memphis goes into Oxford on Saturday and the Rebels will be waiting for them full of revenge for the 37-24 loss in Memphis last year. Memphis has looked real good this year but the competition hasn't been the best and the step up in competition will prove interesting for the Tigers. Regardless of competition, it is obvious that the Tigers have a nice offense and although Junior QB Riley Ferguson is no Paxton Lynch, he has had a great year so far. He will be going up against a Rebel defense that has had troubles all year. They have had to face some tough offenses especially Alabama and Georgia but they do rank 102nd in total defense and because of this we believe the Tigers can keep this one close. Chad Kelly has been exactly what we expected from him this year and the Rebels will score their share of points today, there is no doubt about that. Here is the catch for us, the Rebels are 2-2 and heading into their bye week. How much is that revenge really going to matter as Ole Miss will be not playing in any of the Big Bowls this year. Another reason we like the underdog here is because of the carelessness of the Rebel offense. They have turned the ball over 8 times in their 4 games and those are the things that keep underdogs very live. Especially a live dog that returns 16 starters and have seen this Rebel team just last year. There will be no intimidation factor for these Tigers. Backing our selection is the fact that the Rebels are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
Oskeim Sports
Kansas St at West Virginia
Play: Kansas S +3.5
Kansas State continues to improve under veteran head coach Bill Snyder, and the Wildcats invade Morgantown boasting the following results: 41-17 ATS in their last 59 conference games, 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 October affairs, 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games versus .501 or greater opposition, 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games versus teams with a winning home record and 16-5 ATS as road underdogs (with 8 outright upsets).
This game also presents a significant coaching mismatch in favor of Kansas State, and coach Snyder is a perfect 4-0 ATS against West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen, including three outright upsets. The Mountaineers are a money-burning 8-15 ATS as home favorites under Holgorsen, including 0-7 ATS when laying less than nine points.
Kansas State's strength is once again its defense that is allowing 11.0 points per game at 3.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 4.6 yards per play against a mediocre defensive squad. The Mountaineers' attack is 0.7 yards per play better than average (6.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yards per play), which gives Kansas State's stop unit a nominal 0.1 yards per play advantage from the line of scrimmage.
The key matchup involves Kansas State's solid ground attack that is averaging 198 yards per game at 5.5 yards per rush attempt against the Mountaineers' suspect run defense that has been 0.4 yards per rush play worse than average in 2016 (5.0 yards per rush play to teams that would combine to average 4.6 yards per rush attempt). And, I generally like to invest on college football underdogs that possess a strong defense and are capable of moving the ball on the ground.
Mike Rose
Northwestern vs. Iowa
Play: Northwestern
No two ways about it. It’s been ugly for the Fighting’ Fitzgeralds whose 24-13 defeat at the hands of the Nebraska Cornhuskers last week saw them fall for the third time in four tries in front of the hometown faithful. The offense was only able to muster a grand total of 388 yards with the stars of last year’s upset at Big Red, Clayton Thorson and Justin Jackson, accountable for most of the offense. Now that we’ve gotten a chance to see what Iowa has to offer over a full month’s stretch, it’s safe to say this year’s squad isn't anywhere near as good as the one that went undefeated into the B1G title game and gave Michigan State all it could handle before being blown out by Stanford in the Rose Bowl.
It’s been a blood bath each of the last two times these team hooked up on the gridiron. One of those meetings occurred here at Kinnick Stadium where the Hawkeyes rolled up and smoked Northwestern 48-7 as 3 point favorites.
Still, there’s something in the water here in Iowa City. Save for taking care of business against Iowa State in Week 2, Ferentz’s squad lost outright to FCS rep North Dakota State as 14.5 point favorites on this field and then followed it up with a less than inspiring 14-7 road win and non-cover at Rutgers last week. Just when you count the Wildcats out, they go out and win a game like this. With Iowa winning the last two meetings by an average of 35.5 points per game, why's laying less than two touchdowns in this spot? That's a red flag for me right there so I'll be backing the road pup in this one.
Bryan Leonard
Rutgers at Ohio State
Play: Rutgers +38.5
Sometimes trends are your friends, as in Urban Meyer being excellent with extra time to prepare. But when these well known situations become public, sometimes its better to jump off that money making train. That's the situation we find ourselves in this weekend as Rutgers is getting a full touchdown more than power ratings would suggest. With Ohio State off a bye it makes some sense that a sizable part of the extra practice went into studying for Indiana next week. The last two years the Buckeyes really struggled against the Hoosiers failing to cover by 15 1/2 and 19 1/2 point margins. If you remember last year Ohio State nearly lost outright to Indiana. After beating Rutgers by 42 and 39 points the past two years we can see the Buckeyes taking this improved team for granted.
Bruce Marshall
Nevada -3.5
Travel edge for once with Hawaii, as jet-lagged Warriors off much-needed bye, while Nevada playing five time zones away from last week at Purdue. Though Wolf Pack not progressing much for Brian Polian, the Reno bunch has dominated series lately (won last five). No clear evidence Rainbows have advanced enough under new HC Rolovich to reverse trend.
Tony George
Minnesota vs. Penn State
Play: Minnesota +3
Penn State is still licking their wounds after an absolute throttling at Michigan last week where Jim Harbaugh never called off the dogs against an injury riddled Lions defense. I exposed this mis-match with a premium play laying 18.5 points and Michigan which was a no sweat winner for anyone who was willing to lay the points and realize Penn State is not at 100% on the defensive side of the ball.
On the other side of the ball for Penn State is an offensive line that is not in sync, and they yielded 6 sacks last week and the offense was woeful to say the least. This is not good news as a veteran and well coached Golden Gopher teams heads to Happy valley this week with a very formidable run game where they are out rushing opponents by 109 years per game, and a capable QB in Leidner who is a dual threat through the air on the ground. It is troubling that Penn State is without all 3 starting LB's and allowed 365 yards rushing last week that plays right into Minnesota's strength.
Minnesota is undefeated to date and head into this game as statement game for them with a signature win on the road against a conference opponent, and Penn State is 0-6 against the Las Vegas Line their last 6 conference games. I cannot count on Penn State to rally here with a depleted defense in search of some bodies to stop a solid run unit and a Gopher team who also has a capable QB who can utilize play action passing with success as Penn State loads up to stop the run.
I have no issues with taking points on the road with Minnesota here who should clearly take advantage of Penn States issues on defense and the fact they are a cover machine on the road at 9-3 against the line their last 12 road games.
Ben Burns
Missouri vs. LSU
Play: Over 53½
Ben Burns delivered a PERFECT 3-0 SWEEP at the ballpark on Tuesday. That brings him to a WHITE HOT 16-5 his L21. Long known for his excellence with O/U plays, Ben has currently NAILED EIGHT STRAIGHT TOTALS. In addition to having cashed five of last week's six college plays, Burns is now 9-4 the L2 weeks in the "pros," a SUPERB 65-38 ATS his L103!
The LSU offense has under-achieved thus far. Thats led to an 0-4 ATS record and was among the reasons that Les Miles (and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron) just got fired. The struggling offense has also led to an 4-0 "under" mark through four games. With Ed Orgeron taking over on an interim basis and Missouri coming to town, that "under" streak should have an excellent shot at coming to an end on Saturday.
Orgeron had this to say: "...we're going to spread the ball around a little bit, do some different things, change the style of play. There's a lot of things on offense we've done well running the football. We want to have a different passing game. We want to be more creative, find ways for the quarterback to get the ball down the field throwing it."
While the competition wasn't admittedly pretty weak, Missouri just scored 79 points last week. It was the second time in three games that Missouri topped the 60-point mark. Missouri is averaging 569.5 yard per game on the season. While the number has climbed a little from its opener, I still believe its a little too low.
Scott Spreitzer
Kansas State vs. West Virginia
Play: Kansas State +3½
We had the Mountaineers last week and watched them fail to put away a BYU team that was ready to fold the tent. WVU made late-game mistakes, including a major unforced miscue inside the Cougar 10-yard line in a spot that would have likely wrapped-up the cover. But the Mountaineers have been known to make their share of mistakes, while Bill Snyder-coached teams rarely beat themselves. K-State is 16-for-16 in the redzone this season and brings the better stop-unit to the battle, ranked 7th against the run, and #1 in pass defense and total yards allowed per game. The Wildcats have already traveled to Stanford where they were within six points at 19-13 with less than three minutes to go in the game until a late, Christian McCaffrey 41-yard TD run. Until then, K-State had held Stanford to 231 yards of total offense in 57+ minutes of action. The Wildcats enter on a 20-8-1 ATS record against teams with a winning record, while the Mountaineers have dropped six in a row ATS against teams with a winning record. We'll back Kansas State as they aim for their 5th straight win & cover over West Virginia.
Alex Smart
Baylor vs. Iowa State
Play: Baylor -16½
Baylor despite of a summer of dealing with scandals has shown that the talent base on the field is still of a very high quality and must be respected, as was evident in a DD victory vs Oklahoma State last week. The Bears have won their first four games by an average of 28.5 points per game. Meanwhile, Iowa State despite of being perceived as much improved over last season, and off a win of their own last week, are still quite literally over matched in all the key aspects of this game. Baylor defense is allowing just 310.0 total yards per game this season ranking 22nd in FBS. Baylor secondary is allowing just 142.5 yards per game through the air this season, seventh best ranking in the FBS and should make Iowa State QB duo of Joel Lanning and Jacob Park afternoon a living nightmare.
Iowa State in their L/79 games against a top level team with a .750 win percentage or better like Baylor have seen their games decided by an average of 39.6 -18 score.
The last time Baylor visited Iowa State they took a 49-28 decision in 2014, and I am betting on a similar result this time around.
Freddy Wills
Wisconsin vs. Michigan
Play: Wisconsin +10.5
I like this play with the Badgers as they got a relaxing win over Michigan State last week that nobody is taking seriously considering the way Notre Dame looked. Wisconsin is a solid team all around and this game is going to come down to whether or not Michigan can score through the air. Wisconsin is super solid defending the run having only allowed 1 rushing TD and they have kept all 4 opponents under their season average for rushing yards per carry. Meanwhile Michigan has been pretty inconsistent running the ball which raises some red flags for me. Michigan vs. Colorado rushed for just 4.10 ypc while Colorado has allowed 4.28 on the season. Michigan vs. UCF, Wolverines averaged just 2.90 ypc and UCF is allowing 3.88 on the season. Hawaii game was a little different as they rushed for 7.85 and Hawaii is allowing 6.36 so they are pretty bad. Hawaii had a dreadful travel spot playing in Sydney, Australia, back to Hawaii (30 hours of travel time), and then another 30 hours of travel time to Michigan all in an 8 day span. Penn State is awful this year and we saw it against Pitt when the Panthers ran all over Michigan. My point is I don’t think Michigan’s rushing offense is top 25 and you can bet Wisconsin’s run defense is in the top 25 having proven themselves vs. LSU and Michigan State.
When Michigan can’t run the ball they struggle. There were 3 games when they did not have a rushing TD a year ago and they went 1-2. Their lone win against Indiana they did not cover the spread, and when you look at their game against Michigan State they averaged 1.88 ypc and lost as well. Wisconsin does not give up the big play, and I can’t rely on Wilton Speight to score TD’s in the red zone which is what will have to happen in this one for them to cover 10.5 points. Wisconsin has only allowed 2 passing TD’s and they have 6 interceptions.
This is going to be a very good game with two of the top 30 teams in yards per play allowed and plays per game allowed. This game should be shortened quite a bit and I’m getting 10.5 points with a very low total of 44.5 which is intriguing. If Wisconsin was not in a bad spot following Michigan State and with Ohio State on deck I would absolutely make this a more confident play, but at the end of the day I am still very confident. I really liked what I saw from QB Alex Hornibrook on the road last week against the Spartans. This kid is very calm cool and collected. He throws an accurate ball and has poise. I just do not really see a lot that separates these two teams at this point and Michigan typically carries an inflated number because of their brand.
Wunderdog
Fresno St @ UNLV
Pick: Under 59
The good news for these teams is that someone has to win this game. The team that does will record their first win of the season vs. an FBS team, albeit not a good one. These teams come in at 0-6 vs. the FBS. Combined they have allowed 43.7 points per game in the six games, so defense has not been part of the equation. However, that has allowed for some value to leak into the total, because all those offenses had a huge advantage against these teams, which won't be the case here. UNLV has the better chance of winning, and getting out ahead. They will be running the ball over 60% of the time, much like they have done all season, and even moreeso if they are ahead which could well be the case. Fresno throws the ball a lot, but not with much success, so I just don't see enough sustained offense here to get this one into the 60s.
The Real Animal
Arizona St / USC Over 64
I don’t know how many of you stayed up to watch Arizona State/Cal last Saturday night but it was a joke, as are most Pac-12 games. Defense is just a lost art in that league with the exception of maybe Stanford, Washington, and at times UCLA. The rest of the league might as well enroll in Arena league football because the fortress of defense has had some sloppy masonry work if you get my drift. The Sun Devils have now been involved in two of their last three games in which 123 and 92 points have been scored for an average of 107.5. So when I see a total of 64 being listed in their game against USC I have to believe this is a serious ass bargain! USC has proved they are vulnerable too. Stanford ran for 295 yards on the Trojans and Alabama went over the 460-yard plateau in the opener. Plus Utah threw for 270 on them. The Trojans have yielded 186 or more yards three times this year on the ground making them #96 in the nation and thankfully one of their four games was against Utah State or it would be much worse. Now it’s true the Trojans are playing the hardest-rated schedule in the country but what that means is their defense is slowly but surely going to be worn out very soon. If USC and Utah can combine for 57 points I see no reason why USC and Arizona State can’t get to 65. The last time these two teams played at USC the final was 38-34 in 2014. The Sun Devils under Coach Graham are 7-0 ‘OVER’ after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game. They yielded 647 to Cal! I see injuries galore on both teams defensively too. The hardest working man in America on Saturday could be the scoreboard operator at the LA Memorial Coliseum on Saturday!
Dr Bob
MISSISSIPPI (-14½) 43 Memphis 27
Ole’ Miss has the revenge motive for last year’s upset loss to Paxton Lynch and company but the Memphis may not be easily dismissed even if the Rebels are fully focused. The Tigers’ offense obviously is not as good with Lynch but I like the talent on the defensive side of the ball and so far that unit has played as well as expected in dominating 3 bad offensive teams (SE Missouri, Kansas, and Bowling Green), which they limited to an average of just 9 points and 4.2 yards per play. Ole’ Miss is too good offensively (7.1 yppl against a schedule of good defensive teams) to be held in check and my math model does call for a 16 point win by the Rebels.
NEBRASKA (-20½) 35 Illinois 19
Nebraska is 4-0 and ranked #15 in the nation but the Cornhuskers may be a bit overrated. The Huskers are a good team, they’re actually only 0.1 yards per play better than they were last season when compensating for the opponents faced. The difference is that last year they lost close games and were -12 in turnovers and this season they have already won a close game (Oregon) and they’re +6 in turnover margin after just 4 games. Nebraska wasn’t as bad as their record last season and they’re not as good as their record this season.
Illinois is worse than average on both sides of the ball under first year coach Lovie Smith, rating at 0.5 yards per play worse than average offensively and 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively, but my math model thinks that’s good enough to stay within the inflated number.
River City Sharps
Wake Forest +11
One of the more surprising early season teams has been Wake Forest, who enters Saturday’s game at NC State at 4-0 on the season and fresh off a road win at Indiana last week. The Wolfpack of NC State enter Saturday’s game with a 2-1 mark on the young season and are actually off a bye this week. This Demon Deacons team, while not yet ready to compete for a conference title, appear to be much improved this season, especially offensively which has been their problem over the last few seasons. Wake also went on the road three weeks ago and won 24-14 at Duke, so they have played some solid competition early in the year. NC State lost a squeaker at East Carolina in week two but have really not played the same level of competition as Wake. The Deacons defense is surrendering just 16.5 PPG and is especially stout vs. the run, giving up only 88 rushing YPG. The Wake Forest defense continues to do a great job pressuring the QB and forcing their opponents into mistakes, as evidenced by the defense coming up with six interceptions and 12 team sacks. We believe the reason for the double-digit line is the history in this series, which has been dominated by NC State. In what appears to be an attractive trend here this week, Wake Forest is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. teams with a winning record, while NC State is 0-4 in the same spot against quality foes at home. Another great trend here backing Wake here is that the road dog has been a really solid play in this series, covering 67% of the time.
ASA
Northwestern (+13.5) over Iowa
The Hawkeyes offense has been a struggle as of late. They scored just 21 points vs North Dakota State two weeks ago and then just 14 last week vs Rutgers. They’ve been outgained in 3 of their 4 games this year and they are just not the same team that began the season 12-0 before losing their final 2. Now they must try and get better offensively with their top WR Vandeberg who was injured last week and is now out. NW is just 1-3 but their offense has finally started to come around the last few weeks. Two weeks ago they put up over 400 yards and beat Duke 24-13. The same Duke team that beat Notre Dame the following week. And while they put up just 13 last week vs a very good Nebraska team (lost by 11) they had nearly 400 yards of total offense. Iowa is a money burning 12-33-1 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more dating back to 2006. Too many points with a struggling offense.