DAVE COKIN
MIAMI AT GEORGIA TECH
PLAY: MIAMI -7
Mark Riecht will still have to show me he can get it done in the biggest games, which he didn’t always do during his mostly successful tenure as the Georgia head coach. But Richt is already a hit with Hurricane fans. There can’t be much argument to the suggestion Richt has brought some swagger back to the Miami program. The ‘Canes are 3-0, and while the competition hasn’t been the best, the team looks good and the energy level is the best I’ve seen in some time at The U.
Miami gets a good test this weekend as they visit Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are hardly elite but they’re a decent team and it’s a good challenge for the Hurricanes. I definitely believe they’re up to the task of getting the best of the Ramblin’ Wreck in this game.
Defending the option that Miami will see all day long from Georgia Tech is the key to this game. It’s all about assignment defense and if executed properly, I don’t see the Yellow Jackets being able to move the ball consistently on what looks like a pretty athletic Miami stop unit. I also can see the ‘Canes producing some offense of their own through the air, as QB Brad Kaaya should get some good looks against a Tech defense that has not been impressive in terms of pass efficiency.
I’ll also toss in an opinion here on Paul Johnson, head coach of the Yellow Jackets. I think this program has gone as far as it can go with the offense Johnson runs. With the rules that are in place these days in college football, I think Johnson’s offense is somewhat obsolete, at least in a major conference loaded with solid squads. We’ll see what happens, but off a 3-9 season that was an unmitigated disaster, Georgia Tech needs to get back to a bowl this season or there’s going to be some noise surrounding this program. My best guess is that the Yellow Jackets will be a .500 team and that will get them to some kind of meaningless December bowl. But I look at this program as one that is now stagnant and if they want to get back to competing for something of substance, the mindset is going to have to start changing.
I made the line on this game Miami -7.5, so there’s no real advantage either way in terms of value. My take is more on what I’m seeing in terms of the physical matchup as I believe the ‘Canes can contain the option, and if they accomplish that feat, they’re going to win the game in all likelihood. Miami has a little extra prep time as well as the Hurricanes were off last week while Georgia Tech was losing a Thursday night home date against Clemson. This game just missed making my personal card, but it certainly qualifies as a pretty clear lean to the Miami side minus the points.
Stephen Nover
Kansas St vs. West Virginia
Play: Kansas St +3½
I like what I'm getting with the 'dog in this matchup: A Wildcats defense that gives up the fewest yards and passing yards per game in the nation and an offense that is No. 1 in red zone percentage going 16-for-16 in scoring from inside the 20-yard line. That 100 percent red zone scoring extends to the final seven games of last season, too.
The Wildcats had a lot of youth last season. That youth is maturing this year. This is the game that shows Kansas State is a real Big 12 contender.
Bill Snyder and his Wildcats have the right ingredients to score an upset here - good coaching, the ability to keep the ball away from West Virginia quarterback Skyler Howard, not make mistakes and take full advantage of red zone opportunities to go with a strong defense that is particularly talented at linebacker.
Kansas State suffered a 26-13 opening-week road loss to seventh-ranked Stanford. There's no shame in that, but for some it warped the perception of Kansas State. The Wildcats give up 179 yards per game, best in the country, while surrendering just 33 points in three games. They pounded Florida Atlantic and Missouri State following the loss to Stanford.
West Virginia had issues with its special teams last week. The Mountaineers were life-and-death with BYU before winning, 35-32, last week nearly blowing a 35-19 lead. That game was played in Landover, Md. Kansas State had a much easier time rolling past Missouri State, 35-0, in a game that was called at halftime because of lightning.
So not only are the Wildcats the fresher team, but they have a proven track record under Snyder of being great in these types of games going 20-8-1 (71 percent) ATS versus above .500 opponents. By contrast, the Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS the past six times they've faced a foe with a winning record.
Matt Fargo
San Jose State vs. New Mexico
Play: New Mexico -10½
San Jose St. heads to New Mexico following a bad loss at Iowa St. last week. The Spartans are 1-3 on the season including a 0-2 record on the road where they have lost by 35 and 3 points. They played without senior quarterback Kenny Potter last week and the duel threat is the best player on the offense and the bad news for them is that he has been downgraded to doubtful for this week. New Mexico opened the season with a big win over South Dakota but has since lost two straight games. However, those were on the road so heading home should get the Lobos back on track. Even though they are just 1-2, the Lobos have won the yardage battle in all three games including their strength, the rushing game. New Mexico averages 314 ypg on 6.3 ypc and this has been the strength of this team for years and Saturday they catch a great matchup. San Jose St. has been outrushed in all three games against FBS opposition and by an average of 135.7 ypg. This line has risen a pretty big amount but it was a bad opening line based on the status of Potter who was still questionable early in the week. San Jose St. has been horrid in this role as they are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games as underdogs. New Mexico meanwhile is coming off its bye week which comes at an ideal time after having to travel to the east coast in its last game. The Lobos are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games after a bye week while going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.
Marc Lawrence
Virginia vs. Duke
Play: Virginia +4
Edges - Cavaliers: Bronco Mendenhall 16-4 ATS in games in which his team sports a losing record, including 8-1 ATS as a dog in those games. Blue Devils: David Cutcliffe 9-18-1 ATS as a conference home favorite, including 0-5 ATS versus .250 or less opponents. With the Devils off a monster upset win over Notre Dame as 24-point dogs last week, and teams who upset the Fighting Irish just 10-23-3 ATS as favorites in their next game, we recommend a 1* play on Virginia.
Sean Murphy
Louisville vs. Clemson
Play: Under 67½
Louisville has been the talk of the college football world so far this season. Not only have the Cardinals gone a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS but they've also posted a 4-0 o/u record. That only serves to give us value with the 'under' here, however.
The Cardinals will face a tougher challenge this week as they hit the road to challenge the Tigers of Clemson. Having scored at least 59 points in each of their first four games, you have to think there's only one way to go from here.
While Clemson is known for its offense, the Tigers are an excellent defensive team as well. They've only really been tested twice in four games this season, but passed those tests with flying colors, holding Auburn to just 13 points and Georgia Tech to only seven, with both of those games coming on the road. The Tigers will certainly be up for this matchup against the 'it-squad' in Louisville.
Clemson hasn't exactly lit it up offensively this season, with QB Deshaun Watson struggling a little bit (relatively speaking). I don't believe this is the spot where the Tigers break out.
Note that these two teams have met in each of the last two seasons, with those games totaling only 40 and 37 points. while I'm not convinced we'll see a defensive slugfest here, I do expect the final score to fall well below the inflated total.
Bill Biles
Purdue vs. Maryland
Play: Maryland -10.5
Maryland has gone from turning the ball over 36 times last season to being 1 of only 2 teams to have no turnovers on the year. Purdue has turned it over 10 times in three games, and its minus-six turnover margin is third-worst in the country. Maryland wins this one by 2 touchdowns or more.
Brandon Shively
South Florida vs. Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati +5½
South Florida was a 1 point home dog last year and are now a 5.5 point road favorite which gives us immediate line value. Cincy was a 10.5 point home favorite in 2014 and a 14 point home favorite in 2012. I don’t think this line swing is warranted as the Bills defense is regressing quickly as they have gotten outgained by 95 and 197 yards the last two weeks. South Florida is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings and the home team is 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings. For Houston only to lay 7.5 @ Cincy and USF laying 2 points fewer seems like a over correction as Cincy is still a talented team with Tuberville guiding the ship. I wish the quarterback situation was clearer currently and I would be upgrading this pick to premium status. I still might look to play Cincinnati big Saturday night. Right now the line is at +5 which is not a football number so I am going to wait patiently until before game time and see where this line settles as we might be able to get a +6 or +6.5. The Bearcats are definitely worth a second look Saturday night
Kyle Hunter
Oregon vs. Washington State
Play: Washington State +2½
The Washington State Cougars are coming off a bye week. Mike Leach has been really upset with his teams play so far this year, and I believe they are capable of far more than they have shown thus far. The Cougars have covered six straight contests against Oregon, so they matchup well with the Ducks.
Oregon's Dakota Prukop isn't a bad fit for this offense, but he isn't the perfect pit that the Ducks have had in the past. Speaking of bad fits, Oregon's defense has been really bad under Brady Hoke so far this year. Oregon is sending a lot of blitzes and they are leaving themselves susceptible to the quick passing game. Why is that important? Because that is exactly what Washington State does on a consistent basis.
Luke Falk is a great fit for the Air Raid offense, and I expect huge numbers from him in this game. Both teams will score a lot here, but I like Washington State's chances. The public is still backing Oregon, but I think Oregon has slipped a couple notches from where they were a couple years ago.
Washington State has a really good home field advantage. Take Washington State plus the points.
Jack Jones
North Carolina vs. Florida State
Play: Florida State -10.5
I’m going with the Seminoles -10.5 as my free pick in this game against UNC as I think they will continue the momentum they built up last week. After all, they have to impress the rest of the way if they want to get back in the four-team playoff conversation.
Impress they did last week as they rolled a very good South Florida team 55-35 on the road. They scored 38 straight points during one stretch, and this game wasn’t even as close as the final score. The Seminoles outgained the Bulls by 197 total yards in the game.
The key was getting Dalvin Cook and the running game going. The Seminoles racked up 647 total yards of offense, 478 of which came on the ground. Cook had 267 yards and two touchdowns, while Jacques Patrick added 124 yards and a score. Look for the Seminoles to stick with the run this week against one of the worst teams against the run in college football.
UNC gave up 240 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry in 2014 and 247 yards per game and 5.1 per carry in 2015. It hasn’t been much better against the run this season, allowing 240 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry thus far in 2016.
The Tar Heels haven’t proven they can stop the run in any game this season. They gave up 289 yards to Georgia, 182 to Illinois, 209 to woeful James Madison, and 281 to Pittsburgh last week. Their defense is the reason I give them no shot of being competitive against the Seminoles this week.
UNC was very fortunate to beat Pitt last week at home as well. It trailed 36-23 with less than six minutes remaining before scoring two touchdowns, including the game-winner with only two seconds left to win 37-36 as 7.5-point favorites. It was another poor performance for a Tar Heels' defense that is allowing 30.0 points per game this season.
Plays against any team (N CAROLINA) – after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Jimbo Fisher is 15-4 ATS after having won two of his last three games as the coach of Florida State. North Carolina is 9-30 ATS in its last 39 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
Jim Feist
Wisconsin vs. Michigan
Play: Over 44½
A low total here with some powerful defenses, but the Wolverines have a a strong set of offensive weapons. They have the best wide receivers in the Big 10 and just dismantled a good Penn State defense with 324 yards rushing. Michigan is on a 12-0 run over the total, including 8-0 at home. The Wolerines also survived a scare against Colorado, erasing a 14-point deficit in 45-28 win. This is their fifth straight home game. Michigan is also 9-0 over the total vs. a team with a winning record.
Ray Monohan
W Michigan vs. C Michigan
Play: Over 58
The battle of Michigan's out of the MAC takes place Saturday as the Broncos and Chippewas meet. The total here has a lot of value on the Over. Both offenses rank in the top 40 as they averaged around the 470 yardage mark per game. With how successful the offenses have been, scoring hasn't been an issue. Western Michigan has averaged 44 points per game while the Chips have averaged 40. Some trends to note. Over is 27-11-1 in Broncos last 39 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. These teams played to a 41-39 game last season and have always been a part of shootouts when it comes to head to head. Look for this one to be a similar game here, as both offenses can strike and strike quickly.
Larry Ness
North Carolina vs. Florida State
Pick: North Carolina
Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher, an assistant at LSU from 2000 through 2006, took time out from his weekly session with the media to dispel any talk about the job opening that came up this week when LSU fired Les Miles. "I'm not talking about LSU. We're talking about North Carolina," said Fisher, adding that he also has not had contact with anyone from LSU nor would he listen if they called him or his agent. North Carolina and its high-powered passing offense (334.0 YPG ranks 14th) comes to Tallahassee, where the now 12th-ranked Seminoles have won 22 straight home contests (a current FBS-best).
Fisher and his Seminoles have enough on their hands without any distractions about Fisher’s coaching future, as FSU badly need this one because the Seminoles are already 0-1 in the ACC and another loss in conference play would all but knock them out of the running for any sort of title in 2016, including the national playoffs. The Tar Heels are unranked but have won three in a row since dropping their opener 33-24 to Georgia. Junior QB Mitch Trubisky has led North Carolina to an average of 47.0 PPG in its three consecutive wins. He’s completing 74.5% of his passes for 1306 yards on the season, throwing 10 TD passes without an INT (in 137 attempts).
FSU’s freshman QB Deondre Francois looked inept in the team’s embarrassing 63-20 loss at Louisville (completing just 7 of 18 for 101 yards with a TD and an INT) but on the season is completing 62.8% for 951 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. RB Dalvin Cook was among a group of preseason Heisman favorites but after three games, he had just 228 rushing yards and two TDs. However, things changed last Saturday in Tampa against USF, as the Seminoles rushed for at least 400 yards for the first time since 1995 (had 478 yards), led by Cook’s 267 yards (9.5 YPC) and two TDs.
History will note that Florida State is 15-2-1 against North Carolina overall but did lose the last meeting in Tallahassee back in 2010. North Carolina is off a thrilling, last-second victory when Mitch Trubisky’s school-record fifth TD pass with two seconds remaining gave the Tar Heels a 37-36 victory over Pittsburgh. Note that the victory also extended North Carolina’s ACC regular-season winning streak to nine. Will the Tar Heels extend it to 10 in a throw, here? Maybe not but I’m taking the points.
Zack Cimini
San Diego State vs. South Alabama
Pick: San Diego State
South Alabama is a team in the Sun Belt that appears heading in a downward direction. They did surprise Mississippi State in week one but they win looks completely different as the Bulldogs struggled against UMass. In other match ups South Alabama has looked subpar on both sides of the football. That doesn't bode well against a fast-paced built Aztecs team that's going to score frequently. Grab the Aztecs as steep favorites to force South Alabama into their mode early and coast into the second half.
Steve Merril
La.-Monroe +33
This line opened +33.5 and sharp money quickly dropped it a point early in the week. Auburn defeated LSU last Saturday and are now in a major non-conference flat spot this week. The Tigers go from being a 3-point home underdog last week to a huge home favorite this week, plus Auburn has a major look-ahead game on deck at Mississippi State next week.
Auburn is not an explosive offensive team as they have scored 18 points or less in three of their four games this season. UL Monroe is only 1-2 SU, but they are 3-0 ATS as they've been competitive. The Warhawks also have the advantage of a bye week entering this game with extra time to rest and prepare as a big underdog. UL Monroe has averaged 6.0 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 5.9 yppl), while the Warhawks defense has permitted only 5.8 yards per play (versus opponents that average 6.1 yppl).
Rob Vinciletti
UL-Monroe vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn -32½
The Tigers are off the big win over LSU and now take on an over matched LA. Monroe squad that is 0-7 to the spread with rest as a dog in this range. . Home favorites off a home dog win and a prior home game are 15-2 to the spread since 1980 vs a team off a road loss. Auburn has won all 9 meetings in the series and sometimes in games like this big favorites win and take their foot off the gas pedal. Not today. Auburn all day.