Brandon Lee
Twins +105
I like the value we are catching with the Twins as a small road dog in Saturday's meaningless game between the Twins and White Sox. Minnesota's Hector Santiago is coming off a couple of average starts, but has been throwing much better down the stretch. He been locked in on the road this season, posting a 3.65 ERA in 15 starts. What I really like is how well Santiago has thrown against Chicago. He's faced the White Sox 3 times this season and all 3 times he posted a quality start, twice throwing 7 shutout innings. He also allowed just 11 hits with 23 strikeouts in his 20 innings against them. Chicago will counter with James Shields who has been all over the place this season, with most of it being bad. He's 6-18 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.620 WHIP in 32 starts. In his last 11 starts, he's giving up 4 runs or more 7 times and 6 of those he allowed 5 or more.
Jimmy Boyd
Northwestern/Iowa Under 44
Offense should be hard to come by for both of these teams on Saturday. Iowa's offense has been in a funk the last two weeks, only scoring 21 at home against FCS foe North Dakota State and then just 14 last week against a Rutgers team that allowed 48 to Washington and 38 to New Mexico.
If you have watched Iowa, you know they are team that likes to grind out possessions by running it down their opponents throats and throwing only when they need to. They figure to have to rely on the run a little more with senior wide out Matt VandeBerg sidelined with a foot injury. VandeBerg leads Iowa with 19 receptions and 284 yards. The next best on the team is tight end George Kittle with 10 catches for 192 yards. No one else on the team is in double-digits in receptions or has more than 100 yards receiving.
I Northwestern allowed 310 rushing yards last week to Nebraska, but a good chunk of those (132) came from quarterback Tommy Armstrong. While Iowa quarterback, C.J. Beathard is mobile, he's only got 3 rushing yards on the season. Even with all that success on the ground, the Cornhuskers still only managed 24 points. I think the Wildcats are more than capable of keeping this Iowa offense in check and making them eat up a lot of clock when they do put together a scoring drive.
On the flip side of this, Iowa's defense is the real deal. The Hawkeyes come in only giving up 13.5 ppg and just 365 ypg. They should have zero problem here against an anemic Northwestern offense that is scoring just 16.2 ppg. Wildcats have really struggled to run the ball and that's going to put them in a lot of 3rd and long situations which will make it tough on them to sustain drives. Keep in mind the last two years they have scored a combined 17 points in their two games against Iowa, both times finishing the game with fewer than 200 yards of total offense.
UNDER is 20-7 in Northwestern's last 27 following a double-digit loss at home, 10-4 in their last 14 after giving up 200 or more yards rushing and 22-9 in their last 31 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 34-18 in Iowa's last 52 games after allowing 7 points or less in the 1st half of 2 straight games.
Dave Price
Penn State -2.5
James Franklin is in a must-win situation here for Penn State. He'll have his players ready when Minnesota visits Happy Valley on Saturday. Penn State would have been a much bigger favorite than -2.5 had this been the first game of the season. So I think there's some value here, especially with this being the first road game for Minnesota. I think Minnesota's 3-0 start is fools' gold. The wins have all come at home against Oregon State, Indiana State and Colorado State. And Minnesota failed to cover against both Oregon State and Colorado State, beating them both by only a touchdown. Penn State will easily be the best team that Minnesota has faced. Minnesota will be the third-best team Penn State has faced after losing on the road to both Pitt and Michigan. A blowout road loss to Michigan last week is why Penn State is only a 2.5-point favorite here, but Michigan is a national title contender. The Nittany Lions are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games after losing 2 of their last 3 games. The Golden Gophers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. The Nittany Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Chip Chirimbes
Fresno State vs. UNLV
Play: UNLV -9½
love living in Las Vegas and watching the locals chase their tails when it comes to the UNLV football team. They opened a 13-point favorite over Idaho last week and they were bet up to over 17 and of course they lost outright. The Rebels have lost their quarterback Stanton to injury but the fact that he was the lowest rated QB in the nation can only help. Now, after losing to a FCS for they Rebels open double-digits over Fresno who blew a 31-0 lead to Tulsa last week.
MMA OddsBreaker
Wilson vs. Cutelaba
Pick: Wilson
Jonathan Wilson is getting seriously undervalued here. Yes, Ion Cutelaba is quick and dangerous and has a heavy overhand right, but Cutalaba's defense is significantly worse than Wilson's. Wilson hits very hard and while he slowed down in his last fight against Luis Henrique, he was also fighting at 2x the pace that Cutelaba fought in his UFC debut against Misha Cirkunov. Cutelaba was getting tagged by Cirkunov's straight left and Wilson has a nasty straight left as well. Don't be shocked to see Cutelaba hurt badly by Wilson if not put out entirely despite the fact that he's proven pretty durable thus far.
Harry Bondi
UMASS (+2.5) over Tulane
Have to take the points at home here with UMass against a Tulane team that is not used to laying points on the road and will likely be in letdown mode following last week’s draining, quadruple overtime 41-39 win over UL-Lafayette. But before you start to think the Green Wave offense is hitting on all cylinders, remember that game was tied 16-16 after regulation. In fact, if you take out those OT points, Tulane is averaging just 11 points per game this season in its three contests against FBS foes. UMass comes in 1-3 SU, but has been an underdog in all four games and has covered three of them, including close losses to SEC schools (Mississippi State and Florida). Take the home dog!
Alatex Sports
Florida at Vanderbilt
Play: Florida -10.5
Florida returns to the Volunteer State for the second week in a row, hoping for better results than last week’s 38-28 loss to Tennessee. The Gators got off to a big 21-0 lead in the second quarter but after halftime, the wheels fell as Tennessee scored 35 straight points. The second half turnaround was amazing as Florida had outgained Tennessee 300-162 in the first half and averaged 8.8 yards per play. Florida played very conservatively in the second half on offense while Tennessee came out ferociously and it showed, with the Gators having five straight three-and-outs.
I am going to overlook the second half of that game and focus on what Florida did in the first half and in their other games this season. They had allowed 14 points in the first three games prior to Tennessee and are made up of some solid NFL prospects. Vanderbilt does not pose anywhere near the threat that Tennessee did with quarterback Joshua Dobbs and his receivers.
Vanderbilt’s offense is much more pedestrian, and the Commodores have been outgained in all four games this season. When facing power five opponents, Georgia Tech and South Carolina, they managed just 17 points combined. They were able to score points against C-USA opponents MTSU and Western Kentucky, but were outgained in both games and benefitted from five turnovers. They now face the best defense they have seen all year, one that will come in with a chip on their shoulder after last week’s embarrassing second half.
“That was the most emotional locker room that I’ve ever been in,” quarterback Austin Appleby said. “There were a lot of guys that were really hurt. We fully expected to win that game, we started fast and we just came up a little bit short. Guys were hurt. Guys felt we played our hearts out, we played our hardest, effort wasn’t a problem. We just got beat by a good team and guys really took it personally.”
Coach Jim McElwain: “The mood in that locker room, there were a lot — a lot — of hurt guys. And I’m not sure a couple of the losses even last year I could feel that sense of hurt,” he said Monday. “As I told them, it should hurt because if it doesn’t, something’s wrong. It means you really don’t care. It means you’re in it for the wrong reasons. We’ll see where we bounce from here.”
Florida has won 24 of the last 25 meetings against Vandy and gets one by margin in Nashville on Saturday.
Ian Cameron
South Florida at Cincinnati
Play: Over 61
Conference opener for both teams and I expect the offenses to have the better of it. The Bulls have been rolling along quite efficiently with their up-tempo, run based spread offense; 35+ points in all four games. They’ve averaged over 7 yards per play and face a Bearcats defense that in two games against their toughest competition (Houston and Purdue) allowed 500+ total yards. USF has scored at least 35 points in eight consecutive games and at least 200 rushing yards in nine straight games dating back to last year. Even in last week’s narrow 27-20 win over Miami (OH), the Bearcats yielded nearly 6 yards per play. I don’t trust Cincinnati to neutralize South Florida’s balanced offensive attack that carved up the Bearcats for 65 points on 573 total yards last season. Quarterback Quinton Flowers and running back Marlon Mack had a field day in that contest and I think both are poised for more success here.
On the flip side, the South Florida defense came completely unglued against Florida State last week as it allowed 55 points on 647 total yards. The Seminoles averaged 7.6 yards per carry and 8.9 yards per pass. Even in the 45-20 win against Syracuse, South Florida’s defense struggled to get stops allowing 549 total yards to the Orange at a 5.3 yards per play clip.
Cincinnati quarterback Hayden Moore was a late scratch prior to last week’s game against Miami (OH) with an ankle injury but head coach Tommy Tuberville says there is a good chance that Moore will play. The Bearcats have a solid running back tandem with Tion Green and Mike Boone and two good receivers in Devin Gray and Nate Cole. I expect Cincinnati should be able to move the football in this game and put up points with its offense averaging 5.7 yards per play on the campaign. Let’s play this one over the total.
Andrew Lange
Baylor at Iowa State
Play: Over 60.5
It's not too often you see Baylor involved in a game with a total in the low 60's. In fact, Saturday will mark the lowest total for the Bears since midseason 2014. Even last year's trip to Manhattan to face slow paced and ultra-conservative Kansas State State closed 67. Also interesting is the fact that last year's meeting against Iowa State closed 74.5; it landed just short with Baylor winning in Ames, 45-27.
ISU has shown no ability to stop the high octane offenses in the Big XII. Last season, against Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State, the Cyclones allowed 48.6 ppg. And thanks to playing from behind in a majority of those contests, ISU proved capable of putting the ball in the end zone with scores of 31, 21, 27, 16, and 31. In the end, all five of those contests topped 61 points (73.8 average). Against TCU earlier this season, Iowa State coughed up 41 in just over three quarters as the Horned Frogs were content to sit on the ball late.
Baylor's offense has looked a bit rusty at times this season; 6 points in the first half against SMU and held scoreless in the first quarter against Rice. But last week looked vintage Bears as the offense rolled up 387 passing yards and a whopping 8.05 ypp in their win over Oklahoma State. Had Baylor hung their normal 50+ against SMU and Rice, this total would be in the high 60’s. The fact that they are still moving the ball suggests their failures to cash in at a high clip are correctable. Play it over.
SPORTS WAGERS
GEORGIA +4 over Tennessee
Anyone that wagered on the Bulldogs last week never really stood a chance, as Georgia fell behind by a big margin early on and lacked any life whatsoever the rest of the way. The best time to come back on a team is off a horrible outing because the number is largely based off that one performance. Playing at Ole Miss last week, the Dawgs were being offered seven points and now they are being offered just three less at home against the Vols. Do you see how that works? It is not right because Mississippi is a true juggernaut while Tennessee is still the same soft team that they have been for years. That Tennessee is ranked 11th in the nation is nothing but fool’s gold which we will look to exploit. What we know for sure is that the Dawgs will respond here with a much better effort, as this host has too much talent and pride not to.
The Vols have played three SEC teams so far this year and in that time, they have three good quarters out of 12. Florida's halftime smugness last week led to its subsequent collapse and it also masks the fact that Tennessee is still playing mistake-prone and situationally unaware football. The pollsters are always the easiest to fool but the cat is somewhat out of the bag with the oddsmakers, who had the Vols installed as a mere field-goal favorite at a struggling Georgia team that also has seen its Vegas stock crash this year. The betting population has bet it up to its current price of -4. The reduction in value and soft schedule means that we’ll need to be more prudent in picking spots, but don't expect Tennessee to beat anybody that's truly any good the rest of the way and the Dawgs are among that group. Georgia is a very tempting ML play here but we’ll use caution and take the points.
Purdue +11 over MARYLAND
While the Boilermakers are not a team we like to get behind because they’re sloppy and their coach makes Jeff Fisher look like Bill Gates, the Terps must be faded in Big-10 play when they are favored in this range. The last time we saw the Boilermakers was last week when they escaped with a 10-point win over Nevada but the Wolf Pack had a chance to tie it with a FG late in the fourth before Purdue sealed it. The score itself looks ugly but the numbers tell a different story. Purdue had a 265 to 122 total yards advantage at one point but three turnovers prevented the game from turning into a route. Way too much emphasis is being placed on the final score (a 10-point win but a near loss) but Purdue eventually outgained Nevada by 213 yards. The Boilermakers can score points with QB David Blough’s talents. Blough hits his receivers in the numbers and the Terps will also have to prepare for Blough’s ability to hit his receivers deep. Two games ago against Cincinnati, the Boilermakers were only a three-point dog and now they’re getting 11 points because why?
The Terps are 3-0 but don’t be fooled by that ridiculous record, as they have played Howard, FIU and UCF. Combined, that trio is 2-10 but both FIU and Howard are 0-4. UCF’s two victories were against South Carolina State and FIU. Let us remind you that even with the projected three wins to open the year, oddsmakers had the Terps over/under win total for the year at 5½. If we could bet it today, we would still go under because wins are going to be scarce and that might even include today. The Terps are a weak team that does not have the talent nor are they physical enough in the trenches to survive life in the Big Ten East. Not only are the Terps unlikely to cover this game, they may lose it outright so don’t be afraid to play Purdue in a couple of ML parlays. Purdue is the better team, they are more battle tested and they’re taking back sick points. We’re going to step it up here and play Purdue on the money line for 1 unit @ +355 and take the points for another 2 units for a total risk of 3.18 units.
VANDERBILT +12 over Florida
Every time the Gators play the Commodores, they are spotting inflated points and this time around is no different. In some pre-season analyses, pundits had the Gators at full health and realized the potential of losing this game to Vandy on the road. Now, we are asking this same Gators team to spot double-digit points after coming in off a game of what could have been, when the Gators fell 38-28 in Knoxville last Saturday. Additionally, the Gators offense remains a question mark in light of reserve quarterback Austin Appleby’s reliable performance against the Volunteers. Finally and perhaps the most significant variable to throw into the mix is Florida’s mindset after blowing an 18-point lead in the second half to allow the Vols to get them from behind after their nation-leading defense was seemingly exposed by Josh Dobbs and company.
Vanderbilt owns a 34-17 road win over Florida in 2013 and could have easily won again last year in The Swamp, when they fell to the Gators 9-7 on what was a sloppy game for both sides, controlled by the defenses. This year’s edition of the Commodores is regarded as far superior to last year’s squad. Vandy has already shown their potential, as they own wins over a mid-major power in Western Kentucky as a 9½-point pooch on the road and they absolutely tarred Middle Tennessee State (47-24), a team highly touted as a dark horse to win the C-USA. The strides are already noticeable because Vanderbilt lost to Western Kentucky at home last year. Perhaps this progression will continue with a primed opportunity to take down a traditional divisional power. There is no question the Commodores are heading in the right direction. With Vanderbilt’s defense curtailing two of the FBS’ more potent offensive units, the ‘Dores with points at home is the prudent play here. Not only do we get the host with points, we get them in better form than the Gators and also in a better frame of mind after Florida blew an 18-point lead against the Vols last week.
Illinois +20 over NEBRASKA
For Nebraska, their stock can be no higher, as they are getting close to their ceiling where they can only go down from here. The Cornhuskers, dating back to their 2015 bowl game against UCLA, have won their last their five contests straight-up and have covered in all five. As an overvalued favorite last week at Northwestern, the ‘Huskers obviously covered again so now would not be the right time to leave them be because there are even more inflated points to be had here. Incidentally, things could have easily gone sour for the 'Huskers against the spread last week against Northwestern. The Wildcats could have easily covered if not won the game had it not been for some terrible plays on the special teams’ end of things. Coupling this with Nebraska’s contentious defeat of Oregon and a couple of tune-up wins against Wyoming and Fresno State and suddenly Nebraska has emerged in the forefront as a potential dark horse to win the Big 10. When teams’ continue to win, expectations continue to grow and then there is always an analyst or two that “goes out on a limb” by exaggerating and/or grandstanding the prospects of a team (Nebraska) that is off to a hot start. Truth is, the Cornhuskers numbers are grossly skewed after putting up big yardage against three extremely weak defenses in four games. With tremendously winnable games against Indiana and Purdue on deck after this one, Nebraska is in real danger of an exhale of sorts here. They have not had an easy time of it the past two weeks and now the media has them convinced that the next three games are gimmes beginning with this one.
The Illini are 1-2 both straight up and against the spread. Nevertheless, Illinois emerged victorious against Nebraska last year in Champaign by virtue of a 14-13 classic and Illini signal caller Wes Lunt was the man under center in that affair. He will once again be back to spearhead offensive operations against Nebraska for one last time as a senior. Lunt was the orchestrator of an Illinois rally in the fourth quarter which catapulted the Illini to a victory over many of the members of Nebraska’s defense. Incidentally, Illinois trailed by 13 points but shut out the ‘Huskers in the second half to give them a chance to win. While Nebraska on paper is certainly a better football team, the intangibles may be in favor of Lunt and company. Illinois has a win over Murray State and that is all she wrote so they are in the quintessential buy-low situation. They have also had two weeks to prepare for this one.
CLEMSON +100 over Louisville
Usually we are not that enamored by marquee, prime time college games because the lines are so tight but our hand is forced in this one simply because the Tigers are a dog, albeit a small one, at home. The fact that Clemson is not at least a 3-point favorite is preposterous. Louisville is grabbing headlines across the nation because of the insane amount of points they are putting up every week but they have not even come close to seeing anything like what awaits them here. Truth is, it is Lamar Jackson that is the cause for all the hype that surrounds the Cardinals but in a game of this magnitude, it takes a balanced effort to defeat a balanced team like the Tigers, of which Louisville is not.
The Cardinals are 4-0 and have scored 59 points or more in all four games. Lost in those victories is that three of the four teams that Louisville faced, Charlotte, Syracuse and Marshall can’t stop the marching band. The market only sees points scored and while the game against Florida State was an eye opener, it was just one of those games that got out of hand because Florida State tried to do things they were not capable of when they fell behind early. We’ll take nothing away from Louisville's dismantling of FSU but four wins with massive points proves nothing yet. This is a Louisville team that lost to Pitt, Houston, Auburn and Florida State a year ago and they also lost to Clemson in Louisville and scored just 17 points. Yes, Louisville is better this season and Lamar Jackson is obviously legit but he is not going to run wild in Death Valley against this defense. Louisville lost its first three games last year. Coach Bobby Petrino was not going to make that same mistake this year and so he scheduled games against weak opposition. He picked three cupcakes and the points that the Cardinals put up raised their stock to an off the charts level right now. This market loves points but we love defense and fading overhyped teams and that’s precisely what we get here.
Ya’ll remember Clemson, no? The Tigers put up outstanding offensive numbers too because they may just have the best offensive player in the country in Deshaun Watson. What the Tigers have that the Cardinals do not is a proven and outstanding defense. That defense was actually the group that carried this team to a near flawless record last year and a flawless record so far this year. Clemson is being disrespected here and we can almost assure you that they’ll use that (being a dog at home) as bulletin board material. This is an outfit with fantastic intangibles, no glaring weaknesses and the best player in the country running the show and now they’re evenly priced in Death Valley? Get in line.
Pass MLB
Scott Rickenbach
Tennessee vs. Georgia
Play: Georgia +4
Very good set-up for the Bulldogs here. Georgia is a home dog for the first time in 5 years and yes I am well aware of the fact that an injury will keep Bulldogs star RB Nick Chubb out of this game. The fact is that he got injured on the first play of last year's meeting between these teams and yet Georgia still jumped out to a 24-3 lead by late in the 2nd quarter. The Vols managed to rally back and get the win over the Bulldogs in that game though and that makes this a nice revenge spot for Georgia. Last week's results help a lot here because Tennessee finally got the monkey off of their back in last week's win over Florida as the Gators had beaten the Vols 12 straight times. That is the type of win that can take a lot out of a team and now the Volunteers go on the road for their first true road game of this season. As for the Bulldogs, they are off of an embarrassing loss at Ole Miss and that means they will be fired up for this week's contest after suffering their first loss of the season last week. Look for the Dawgs to get their revenge and send the Vols to their first loss of the season but I am grabbing the generous points here (currently +4) in case it does end up being a tight loss for Georgia. Note that the Bulldogs are 11-5 in their last 16 against Tennessee. Also, that was such a huge win for the Volunteers last week and they are 1-5 ATS the last 6 times in their next game after facing Florida. Don't be surprised if the Vols come out flat in this game.
Dennis Macklin
Oregon State vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado -19
It's taken a while for McIntyre to get his kids into place but we've seen nothing but good things happening in Boulder. Buffs off first win vs. Oregon and that with a backup redshirt frosh. who threw for 333 and ran for 135 more. Colorado can score on anyone. The argument here is that who is Colorado to lay three touchdowns to anyone ??? Noted ... but .... McIntyre has won seven straight as a home favorite and is on a 9-2 run overall. Prefer to think that hard playing Buffs are ready for more.
Tony Karpinski
Virginia vs. Duke
Play: Virginia +4
Even if QB Kurt Benkert holds onto the ball longer than normal, it still will make no difference. The Duke Dline will get not nearly enough pressure on the Virginia QB. Virginia has been very solid with creating fumbles with active hands - and they will do enough here in that aspect of their game. Jela Duncan can run well, but at times, but can get impatient waiting for his blocking. The major bright spot on the defensive line, Andrew Brown will tear up the Oline of Duke, this has the potential to get rough - and he will not make it easy for the RB. Coming off a huge win, Duke is ready for the letdown game and has struggled with consistancy - slow play, and bad decision won't help in winning this game. Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games and coming off a huge emotional win over Notre Dame last week. Look for Virginia and their defense to keep them in this game and get us the cover.
Brad Wilton
The Tigers have scored 35 points or more in all 3 of their games, including a big 77 spot against Bowling Green last Saturday at home.
The Rebels continue to post big numbers as well, as Ole Miss has posted 34 points or better in all 4 of their contested thus far this season.
You see where I am going with this, don't you?
Why look for this Memphis-Ole Miss meeting to turn into a defensive slugfest, just play the Over and sit back with some popcorn and soda pop, and watch the scoreboard light up with crooked-digits.
These schools are meeting for the third straight season, as Ole Miss took a 24-3 decision in Oxford in 2014, but lost last year at the Liberty Bowl in a higher-scoring affair, 37-24.
This total is obviously a little higher than the previous pair of meetings, but with Chad Kelly having thrown for over 1,200 yards and a dozen TD's against the likes of Florida State, Alabama and Georgia, I think he will be able to puncture the Tigers defense which will be facing their first real test after games against SE Missouri State, Kansas and Bowling Green.
Play it high on Saturday night in this Memphis-Ole Miss meeting.
2* MEMPHIS-OLE MISS OVER
Scott Delaney
Ohio State is my free play, as it will continue to dominate Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have been in the Big Ten for two years, and over those two seasons the Buckeyes have outscored Rutgers, 105-24.
The Buckeyes rank 13th nationally in total defense. The team's four pick-sixes lead the FBS, and the stop unit also ranks No. 1 in turnover margin (+9). Rutgers will be lucky to get into the end zone this season against Ohio State.
The Knights' offense is banged up, so they'll be lucky when getting a first down. Rutgers has been dealing with season-ending injuries to star wide receiver and kick returner Janarion Grant, as well as defensive end Quanzell Lambert. This team will get trampled in the Shoe today.
Lay the chalk with the No. 2 team in the nation.
4* OHIO STATE