Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is to lay the lumber in Lincoln with the Huskers of Nebraska as they keep things humming against a clearly inferior Illinois team.
Nebraska made it 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread with their 24-13 win and cover at Northwestern in a game that really shouldn't have been as close as the final score. In that win, Mike Riley's team was able to amass well over 500 total yards of offense (they twice fumbled the pigskin at the Northwestern goal line!).
Illinois opened the Lovie Smith era with a 52-3 bushwhacking of Murray State, but has since been run over by both North Carolina and Western Michigan.
The Cornhuskers well remember losing in Champaign 14-13 last season as the road favorite, so look for them to show no mercy against an Illini bunch that is 4-14 against the spread as a road dog since 2012. That includes a 45-14 drumming at Memorial Stadium in 2014 as the 3-TD dog.
It's "deja-vu all over again" in Lincoln.
Huskers to name it.
5* NEBRASKA
Bob Valentino
Going to side with the Florida State Seminoles as my free play, as I'm laying what I believe is a cheap number against North Carolina.
The Seminoles rank second in the ACC in plays of at least 10 yards (76). And while the Tar Heels are just behind in third (72), Florida State has the better overall offense that makes timely plays.
Yes, Florida State is young in the secondary, but I think the Noles have grown, and matured. This is a resilient team with a wealth of talent. We saw that defense force punts on nine straight possessions, including eight three-and-outs, last week against South Florida.
UNC has problems stopping the run, and that won't bode well when the Seminoles are running it down the Heels' throats.
Take Florida State in this one.
3* FLORIDA STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is Southern Miss to blast Rice.
After a 31-37 upset loss at home against Troy State, Southern Miss refocused last week in El Paso and beat up on the UTEP Miners by a 34-7 score as the double-digit road favorite.
Back at home and playing against a Rice team that remains winless straight up at 0-4, and just 1-3 against the spread, I have no issue laying the wood with the Golden Eagles.
Last season USM posted the 65-10 road win and cover over Rice in Houston, and while the Eagles have failed both as the home chalk this season, I have little hesitation to go against an Owls team that is just 2-7 against the spread their last 9 dating back to last season. That mark includes that whitewashing absorbed at the hand of the Golden Eagles.
It's going to get ugly early in Hattiesburg this Saturday, play on the home team to romp the backsliding visitors.
3* SOUTHERN MISS
Chris Jordan
Fresno State is a mere shell of what it has been in the Mountain West Conference, and the Bulldogs could suffer their most disappointing season in quite some time. But lose to UNLV? It's damn near unheard of. And why the oddsmakers have the Rebels laying double digits is beyond me.
The Bulldogs might win this game outright.
Look, what UNLV coach Tony Sanchez is doing, and has done, is commendable. But his team isn't about to cover 10 or 11 point spreads against perennial powers, I don't care if they're 1-3 or 0-4.
The Rebels lost to Idaho last week. Their defense is atrocious. And now you're asking them to slow down a team that is looking for a mere opportunity to beat up on someone, in order to get into a groove.
This is a great spot for the Dawgs, as they catch UNLV without starting quarterback Johnny Stanton. Instead, redshirt freshman Dalton Sneed gets the nod.
Not good.
There has also been rumblings of late that Sanchez's frustration is getting mixed in with his motivational ways, and he's becoming condescending with certain parts of the team. You can't play favorites in college football - this isn't Bishop Gorman - and if that continues, he'll be the reason this team fails.
The Rebels aren't ready to be double-digit favorites. They laid -16 to Idaho and lost outright. Tonight they're laying -9 points to Fresno State.
I like the Bulldogs.
3* FRESNO STATE
David Banks
Louisville @ Clemson
Pick: Louisville -1
It’s an ACC showdown Saturday night as Louisville travels to Death Valley to take on Clemson. The game features two of the favorites to win this year’s Heisman Trophy, though if it were given today it would surely go to the Cardinals’ Lamar Jackson. The quarterback has been amazing through four games racking up 25 touchdowns and leading Louisville in rushing and passing. Yet, while the Louisville offense leads the nation in scoring (61.5 points per game), it is the defense that makes them a legitimate contender in the conference and the College Football Playoff.
Todd Grantham, the Cards’ defensive coordinator, has watched his unit hold teams to just three yards per carry, accumulate 34 tackles for loss, and register 15 sacks. Louisville held Florida State star running back Dalvin Cook to just 54 yards in a 63-20 pounding of the Seminoles. The Cardinals’ defense will have to rise to the occasion once again as they face Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, who prior to the season, was the leading contender for the Heisman.
Watson and the Clemson offense has yet to peak, and they will have a hard time doing so against Louisville. Watson is four yards shy of 1,000 and Wayne Gallman has just 256 yards rushing through four games. The Tigers are averaging 33.5 points a game, but like Louisville, the Clemson defense has been stout. The Tigers are fifth in the nation yielding just 11 points a game.
Both defenses are going to have to slow down the other team’s quarterback. Whichever unit does the best job on the opposing quarterback is going to have the most success. With the potential of each team’s offense, Saturday night’s game could be a shootout with scores in the 50s, yet the quality of each team’s defense could make this game wind up in the teens.
DWAYNE BRYANT
NORTH CAROLINA at FLORIDA STATE
PLAY: NORTH CAROLINA +11
This mid-afternoon Saturday clash in the ACC takes place on Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida. The #12 Florida State Seminoles play hosts to the North Carolina Tar Heels. While FSU is the ranked team playing at home against what is widely known as a basketball school, I'm going to recommend taking the points with the underdogs from North Carolina.
Florida State rebounded from that humiliating 63-20 beating at Louisville by pounding South Florida, 55-35 as 4.5-point chalk. It's hard to imagine the 'Noles being any more fired up for a game after the way they were embarrassed by Louisville, so the scoreboard against USF is not surprising. But now FSU finds itself in a bit of letdown spot with a game against their arch-rivals, Miami, up next.
There is also the distraction of FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher's name being thrown around as the possible successor to Les Miles at LSU. "I'm not talking about LSU. We're talking about North Carolina," said Fisher, an assistant at LSU from 2000 through 2006. Fisher says he has not had contact with anyone from LSU nor would he listen if they called him or his agent. "I'm coaching football," he said. "I don't listen."
FIsher has beaten every ACC team at least once since becoming head coach at FSU -- except North Carolina. Some will say the Seminoles are playing with revenge for a home loss to UNC in 2010. That couldn't be further from the truth, as none of FSU's current players were on the team in 2010. So revenge is not a factor in this one.
North Carolina's defense leaves much to be desired. They allowed Pittsburgh to rush for 281 yards last Saturday, so FSU running back Dalvin Cook figures to have a field day running at this Tar Heels stop unit.
But the FSU defense hasn't been anything to write home about either, having allowed 98 points and 980 yards in its last two contests. They figure to be put to the test again against a very potent Tar Heels offense led by talented junior QB Mitch Trubisky.
I hate laying points (especially double digits) with teams that play poor defense. With FSU at 0-3 ATS in their last three games the week before facing rival Miami and the visitor cashing five straight times in this series, it looks to me like the double-digit road dog is the play here. Take NORTH CAROLINA plus the points as your free college football play for Saturday, October 1st, 2016.
TONY FINN
WISCONSIN at MICHIGAN
PLAY: MICHIGAN -11
The No #5 ranked Michigan Wolverines host the No #8 Wisconsin Badgers in Saturday afternoon’s College Football feature event. The Wolverines take their balanced offense off of an impressive 49-10 conference victory over Penn State and face their biggest challenge of the 2016 season against the Badgers and their high energy defense.
Michigan faithful believe that the Wolverines have yet to perform to their capabilities despite winning nine of its last 10 games dating back to last season. Harbaugh and his crew are looking for a 2016 signature win and the buck stops in Ann Arbor on Saturday when the Wolverines look for their fist positive result over a top-10 opponent since 2008. .
Badgers
Wisconsin seems to have a serious lean to freshman quarterback Alex Hornibrook heading into conference play. The Badgers signal-caller threw for 195 yards and a touchdown to lead the Badgers in a road win against Michigan State last Saturday. Despite the focus on the Wisconsin quarterback the offense is fueled by the running game and All-Conference tailback Corey Clement.
A familiar defensive name leads the Wisconsin stop-unit. T.J. Watt, the brother of Houston Texans star J.J. Watt, earned the Walter Camp National Defensive Player of the Week in the team’s win over the Spartans in Lansing. Watt recorded six tackles, three of those for a loss and weighed in with a 2-plus sack effort.
Wolverines
This Michigan squad had a tremendous amount of expectations heading into the 2016-17 campaign and they have not disappointed. The Wolverines can run, they can throw and they can come at opposing defenses from all directions. While Harbaugh and his staff have a deep offensive backfield it is Karan Higdon who has been the go-to runner. Higdon registered 81 yards on the ground a week ago that included two touchdowns. Through the air quarterback Wilton Speight has dangerous weapons in Amara Darboh, Jake Butt and Jehu Chesson just to mention a few.
Defensively there is hope that nose tackle Bryan Mone can dress and play on Saturday. Mone has been sidelined with a knee injury this season and would be a welcome addition to the Michigan defense that faces the challenge of containing the Whiskey rushing attack. Expect to see the Michigan defensive backs crowding the box in “The House” on Saturday. Harbaugh, a quarterback by trade, is known for his creativity on defense. Seeing the likes of young aerial defenders Lavert Hill and David Long seeing extended playing time in multiple defensive formations after the loss of senior and defensive leader Jeremy Clark out for the rest of the season with an ACL injury.
Outlook
As much preseason attention and pressure that was put on coach Harbaugh and his Michigan troupe most of the national gawking was their own doing. Harbaugh and company have not only accepted the challenges of the fan base and the media they have manned up to their own expectations and executed their season plan to perfection so far. The hoopla continues this Saturday in front a millions of eyeballs when ABC presents this primetime event in the “Big House” to a national audience.
It hasn’t escaped Harbaugh’s staff or their players that some of the focus this week was on the record anomaly that the club has lost 11 straight to opposing teams ranked in the AP Top-10 poll.
Nothing comes easy for Wisconsin this weekend, not offensively nor defensively, not in the Big House.
Bruce Marshall
Mississippi -14.5
Since Ole Miss finally put together two halves in its 45-14 romp over nemesis Georgia, support loaded Rebels, aching to avenge LY's 37-24 upset loss at Memphis. Rebels' mobile gunslinger Chad Kelly (1,235 YP, 12 TDP) should easily outduel Tigers' QB Ferguson, who's facing his first stout "D" after toying with SE Missouri State, Kansas & Bowling Green.
Rocketman
San Diego State @ South Alabama
Play: San Diego State -18.5
The San Diego State Aztecs travel to South Alabama to take on the Jaguars on Saturday night. San Diego State is 3-0 SU overall this year while South Alabama comes in with a 2-2 SU overall record on the season. San Diego State is averaging 260.7 yards per game on the ground this year and 442.7 total yards per game this season. South Alabama is allowing 240 yards per game on the ground this season. San Diego State is 6-1 ATS last 3 years when playing in October. South Alabama is 1-6 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record. San Diego State is averaging 39.3 points per game overall this year and 42 points per game on the road this season. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego State tonight!
Joe D'Amico
Rice at So Mississippi
Pick: So Mississippi
Rice is way outclassed here, coming in sporting an 0-4 (1-3 ATS) record, dwelling in the cellar in both offensive (18.2 PPG) and defensive (39.2 PPG) categories. This doesn't bode well as they face a Southern Miss team posting over 41.2 PPG and possessing a stingy "D", permitting just, 19.8 PPG. QB, Nick Mullens (913 YP) and RB, Ito Smith (540 YR) will devour the Owls "D" here, so topping last season's, 65-10 drubbing, is in the cards. The Fav is 5-0 ATS the L5 meetings in this series.
JOHN RYAN
Navy vs. Air Force
Play: Air Force -7
Technical Discussion Points: The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Air Force is a solid 97-46 ATS (+46.4 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Navy has been a money burning 40-72 ATS (-39.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992; 20-42 ATS (-26.2 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Air Force is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards over the last 3 seasons.
Bob Balfe
Clemson +2
Clemson has not looked sharp this year on offense, but we can’t forget that this is a team a flick of the wrist away from winning the title last year. Mike Williams is back in the lineup for Clemson and this team is stacked on offense. There is no doubt Lamar Jackson is the best player to date this year in all of college football and he will get his points, but this is to me a classic example of looking at how a certain team performs against other teams and judging them. If the Cardinals can come into death valley at night and win then good for them and so be it. There is a lot of value here with the Tigers.
James Patrick Sports
Missouri vs. LSU
Play: LSU
LSU will take the field without Les Miles on Saturday for the first time in nearly a dozen years, when the Tigers host Missouri in SEC action. LSU fired Les Miles last week following the loss at Auburn. Interim HC Ed Orgeron will be asked to lead the program as he did stepping in at USC a few seasons ago. The LSU offense is getting most of the blame as the offensive production hasn’t matched the talent in Baton Rouge. Some coaching moves provide a spark and LSU has not lost an October game since 2009 and the path to the SEC title is still there for the taking. Missouri’s offense has been improved this season but the Tigers have a rough time playing catch-up and that looks to be the situation on Saturday Night at Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. ANGELS +101 over Houston
The Angels have been out of the playoff picture for three months while the Astros have been out of it for three days. The point is, intensity was high for so long and now the Astros can only finish out the weekend and go home. The difference is that the Angels have been in this state of mind for months. That Houston is favored here is incorrect. Collin McHugh has been disastrous on the road with a 5.38 ERA. He’s been tagged for 108 hits in 88 road innings for an oppBA of .303. McHugh’s groundball rate has taken a serious dive over the past two months, going from 46% to 34% over his last eight starts to 26% in his last start. What do they say about pitchers that are getting the ball up? Fatigue could be a factor. Incidentally, the Angels collectively have struck out fewer than any team in the league so putting the ball in play bodes well.
The Angels are also hot with five wins in a row. Tyler Skaggs had a left flexor pronator strain and it was uncertain if he was going to be able to make his next scheduled start but here we are. If Skaggs was not 100% ready to go, the Angels would in no way force it here in a meaningless game. Skaggs is a major piece for them next season. In any event, Skaggs has whiffed 21 batters over his last 18 innings and now has 50 K’s in 48 frames overall. His groundball rate is up to an elite 52%. Skaggs averages 93 MPH on his fastball with life. Everything he’s doing is trending in the right direction and he and the Angels must be considered the better play here.
CINCINNATI +189 over Chicago
Despite winning last night, the Cubs are still playing for nothing and obviously do not want to risk anything with the playoffs starting next week. Jon Lester will start here but figure him for a cup of coffee and then right into the showers after three or four innings. We can’t imagine for a second that Joe Maddon will allow him to throw more than 60 to 70 pitches. With a 4 PM start after a night game last night, also expect Maddon to rest at least 33% of his regulars.
This is strictly a value play on the Reds, as Chicago is only setting up for the playoffs and have no interest whatsoever in wins and losses at this point. The price is nuts when you consider that the Reds’ chances of winning are so good.