Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Saturday, October 22nd, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Bruce Marshall
W. Kentucky -12.5
C-USA sources alerting to keep an eye on ODU, which has an emerging QB in former WR David Washington and has covered its last three TY and is 7-3 last ten on board. But the Monarchs have taken advantage of the soft portion of their slate, and were bounced a combined 80-29 vs. higher-quality App State & NC State in September. WKU has won and covered shootouts past two years, and Tops scoring enough (49 ppg last three) to extend margin.
DAVE COKIN
MISSISSIPPI AT LSU
PLAY: LSU -5.5
Talk about the proverbial line being drawn in the sand! We should find out this Saturday whether it’s a two-week spike or the real deal as LSU plays host to Mississippi in what should be an electric atmosphere at Baton Rouge.
It’s definitely small sample, only two games to be precise. But I don’t think it’s stretching the point to assert that the LSU Tigers have a new lease on life. The Bayou Bengals have looked totally dominant in a pair of blowout wins. No doubt about it, Ole Miss is going to likely be a far tougher test than were either Missouri or Southern Mississippi. But there’s also simply no denying that current LSU squad bears little resemblance to the one Les Miles left behind. Interim coach Ed Orgeron can out himself in great position to get that interim tag rendered obsolete with a win over the very talented Rebels.
Ole Miss is probably the best 3-3 team in college football. The Rebels are not far from being 6-0. They let a big lead get away against Florida State. Mississippi led Alabama at the half before again getting run over after the break, though they did fight back admirably late in that clash. They again held the lead on Saturday at Arkansas before allowing the fairly late today that got the Razorbacks the win.
Head coach Hugh Freeze has his work cut out this week. As good as the Rebels are, they’re pretty much history as far as locking down a major bowl goes with the three losses. That’s a big hurdle for a team that had playoff asprations to try and overcome. Ole Miss is also facing a revved up host that is not only surging, but one that also has a major revenge motive from a pretty lopsided loss last season.
The tough part for me in looking at LSU here is that the overall season to date numbers suggest this line is too high. But that’s where my opinion enters the mix. Maybe it’s folly on my part, but I have basically tossed out those first four games for LSU. Even if I include them, it’s not like those narrow losses to Wisconsin and Auburn are horrible. But I have to believe if those games were to get replayed, we might very well get a different result in the rematches.
Orgeron has revitalized the Tigers. There’s no guarantee the team maintains the form on display since the coaching change took place. But I have to think the home team will be heading into this duel with the more positive mindset, and in terms of talent they sure don’t take a back seat to many. I like LSU here and feel they’ll win by enough to cover the spread in the process.
Harry Bondi
BOSTON COLLEGE -4.5 over Syracuse
We used the Orangemen right here on Saturday as a 19.5 underdog against Virginia Tech and they won the game outright! The reason we went against the Hokies in that game was because it was a horrible spot for them as they came in off a big upset win over North Carolina and had a game with rival Miami on deck. This week, the situation completely flips as its Syracuse that’s in the flat spot. The victory over Virginia Tech was a “Super Bowl” type of win for a young team that now has to try and equal that same effort and emotion on the road against a BC team that not only comes in fresh off a bye, but was embarrassed on national TV in their last game when Clemson came to the Heights and ran them over with a 56-10 victory. As bad as that effort was, the Eagles defense is still rock-solid and with two weeks to prepare they will be able to limit the number of scoring opportunities that Syracuse will have and offensively be able to run the ball against a soft Orangemen rush defense that has allowed over 200 yards per game on the ground. Syracuse has won just one of its last 11 road games dating back to the 2014 season and falters once again away from the friendly confines of the Carrier Dome.
Stephen Nover
Calgary -150
The 0-3 Flames are in must-win mode here at home. That should occur against the beat-up Sabres. Buffalo has failed to win during its last six trips to Calgary.
The Sabres are minus two of their best offensive players with Jack Eichel and Evander Kane out. Despite missing those players, the Sabres posted their first win of the season beating the Oilers, 5-2, Sunday.
Buffalo is 25-54 following a victory.
The Flames are close to winning. They lost in a shootout at Vancouver in their last game. I give the Flames an edge at goalie with Chad Johnson against Robin Lehner, who has yielded 11 goals in three starts against Calgary.
Johnson played for the Sabres last season compiling a 2.36 GAA and 92 percent save percentage in 45 appearances. Brian Elliott didn't play well in Calgary's first two games. Johnson played in the shootout loss to the Canucks and stopped 30 of 31 shots.
Stephen Nover
San Jose +100
San Jose owned the best road record in hockey last season. I like the Sharks in this road setting following their first defeat of the season. San Jose is stewing from an embarrassing 7-4 loss to the Rangers at Madison Square Garden last night.
So this is a short trip for San Jose and playing back-to-back shouldn't be a fatigue issue this early in the season. The Sharks are 7-3-1 in their last 11 visits to the Islanders.
The Islanders are a bit fat and happy after getting their first victory with a 3-2 overtime win against the Ducks Sunday.
The line is short because it's likely rookie goalie Aaron Dell will make his NHL debut for San Jose. Dell finished last season strong helping his AHL team reach the playoffs.
San Jose had been playing excellent defense until the Rangers game allowing three goals during their first two games. The lopsided loss to the Rangers is a bit misleading since New York scored two empty net goals.
When at even strength, the Sharks have permitted only one goal on the season.
Brad Wilton
Carolina is off to an 0-2 start with bot games being decided in overtime.
It should be noted that both losses have also played Over the total for the Hurricanes.
Edmonton has already been on the ice 3 times this year, and ALL 3 of their games have played Over the total.
Dating back to last year, the Oilers have played 5 straight Overs, and Overs in 8 of 10 overall.
The Hurricanes are on a 6-1 Over run of their own since last season.
The series numbers show 4 of the last 5 played in Edmonton between the teams having played Over the total as well.
You want goals scored? This is your game!
5* CAROLINA-EDMONTON OVER
Will Rogers
Florida vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Florida
The set-up: The Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning are both off to 2-0-0 starts which shouldn’t be to much of a surprise as the Panthers topped the Atlantic division with 103 points last year and the Lightning finished in the second spot with 97. The two teams square off for the first time in the new campaign Tuesday night at Amalie Arena.
Florida: The Panthers were forced to make changes to their first line due to long-term injuries to Jonathan Huberdeau (Achilles) and Nick Bjugstad (hand). Jonathan Marchessault, who played 47 games for the Lightning the last two seasons, signed as a free agent and he’s made the biggest impact lately with a team-high four points playing beside Jaromir Jagr and Aleksander Barkov on the new top line. The trio combined for four goals, three assists and a plus-10 rating while recording 25 of the Panthers’ 74 shots in the first two wins.
Tampa Bay: The Lightning opened the 2016-17 season with two balanced, healthy top lines, consisting of Ondrej Palat-Steven Stamkos-Jonathan Drouin plus Alex Killorn-Tyler Johnson-Nikita Kucherov. Drouin and Killorn lead the team with three points apiece while Valtteri Filppula, who centers rookie Brayden Point and Vladislav Namestnikov on the third line, has two goals along with Killorn. Defenseman Victor Hedman is averaging a team-high 25:19 with two assists, three shots on goal and a plus-1 rating in the opening two games.
The pick: Tampa Bay has had to rally back from two-goal deficits in each of its first two wins and my bet says their luck is about to run out. Florida dominated the regular-season series last year (won four of five meetings) and even with Roberto Luongo (2-0, 0.98 GAA) expected to take the night off (James Reimer is expected to make his Florida debut), I’m on the Panthers in the first of just four meetings this year between these two in-state rivals.
Alan Harris
Oklahoma / Texas Tech Over 84
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Oklahoma Sooners hit the road to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, TX, on Saturday night. Oklahoma has posted a 13-7 record to the over in their last 20 games following a game against a Big 12 opponent and they have gone an excellent 16-5 to the over in their last 21 Big 12 games. They have also gone a perfect 8-0 to the over in their last eight road games where they were listed as a favorite of 11-15 points and they have gone a lights out 10-1 to the over in their last eleven road games. The Red Raiders have been an over team as well as they have gone 4-1 to the over in their last five games where they were listed as an underdog of 10-21 points and they have gone an excellent 9-3 to the over in their last twelve games where they faced a team with a winning record. They have also gone up and over the total in eleven of their last fourteen home games. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone over the total in each of their last five head-to-head meetings, and that's where we'll have our play as our numbers have this one turning into a shootout in Lubbock on Saturday night. G
Jesse Schule
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Play: Texas A&M +18½
The defending champions are rolling, coming off back-to-back blowout wins on the road versus Arkansas and Tennessee. With their "air of invincibility" firmly intact, I think they are due to suffer a let down here against the Aggies. Texas A&M is coming off a bye week, allowing them to put everything they've got into preparing for this game.
Alabama is asked to cover an enormous spread here at home, even greater than the 18-point margin they defeated the Aggies by last year. Texas A&M is a far better team since the addition of Trevor Knight at quarterback, and the former Oklahoma Sooner has accounted for 12 touchdowns in four games in conference play.
The best game of Trevor Knight's career came in the 2014 Sugar Bowl, throwing for 348 yards and four touchdowns in a 45-31 win over Alabama. He's got a talented group of wide receivers here at A&M, and one of the best defenses in the country behind him. Don't be surprised if history repeats itself here in Tuscaloosa.
Brad Diamond
Ole Miss vs. LSU
Play: LSU -6
Not oblivious to the fact, the Tigers are off back-to-back wins versus struggling Missouri and Southern Miss. We will point out that LSU had just one more first down than the Golden Eagles. And, that QB Etling threw an interception, but was fairly-consistent in the short range. Therefore, we are counting on the LSU defense to come up with the game changing plays against talented QB Kelly, and the Mississippi offense that is ranked #44 scoring 39.7 points per game. While possessing the #21 passing offense nationally. Remember, though, the Tigers defense is ranked #10 in the country holding the opposition to just 312 yards per game. Just as critical from the emotional standpoint, this is a major revenge game for LSU after pasted last season 38-17 after falling behind early. Also, the other emotional angle for the Tigers brings their current interim coach Ed Orgeron to the forefront as he coached the Ole Miss for three seasons, but was let go. There is one game that you can count on for sheer emotion, it will be Saturday night in Death Valley. Granted recent series techs point to Mississippi, but the home team is 6-1 SU. In addition, the Tigers have covered 5 straight in the month of October.
Teddy Covers
Arkansas vs. Auburn
Play: Arkansas +10
Fresh off a perfect sweep last Sunday, Teddy hitting 62% in the NFL through the first six weeks of the season, on the heels of last year's epic 65% campaign. He’s riding a long term 60% college football run that dates all the way back to bowl season! And Teddy has won his last three Big Ticket Reports, heating up with his strongest releases. Don’t miss a single winner all weekend long!
Arkansas has a reputation in the Brett Bielema era of being a pure smashmouth, run first squad. Part of that is true this year – the Razorbacks can certainly play some power football in the trenches – their top two backs are averaging close to six yards per carry between them, despite having faced TCU, A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama already. But the key to this bet is Hogs junior QB Austin Allen, who has superseded his older brother in his first year as the starter.
Allen is averaging 8.5 yards per pass, with a 18-6 TD-INT ratio and a 64% completion rate. He threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns against Alabama, but he threw three of his six interceptions on the year in that ballgame. No shame in that – Alabama’s defense is loaded with future NFL players. And he followed up that showing against the Crimson Tide with another three TD effort against Ole Miss last week. Arkansas has seven different receivers who have caught a 25+ yard pass this year, and their top three guys have at least four touchdown catches each.
The markets are down on Arkansas. After all, r ‘Bama whipped them on the heels of a three TD loss to Texas A&M in a previous ‘step-up’ game. But make no mistake about it – that A&M final score was as misleading as it gets. The game was tied at 17-17 late in the third quarter. Arkansas put together a 15 play, 89 yard drive, but they were stuffed at 4th and goal from the 1 yard line. Two plays later, A&M hit a 92 yard TD strike and the rout was on.
Had Arkansas gotten that single yard, they might well have won that game in SU fashion. Instead, they’re being priced like a team that can’t step up in class, despite that SU win over the Rebels last week.
Auburn is on a 2-6 ATS run as double digit favorites, the two spread covering wins coming against Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe. They’re getting a ton of credit in the betting markets for their supposedly improved play following three straight wins, all over VERY flawed opponents. Last week’s bye leaves the Tigers as the fresher of these two squads, but freshness alone does not equate to a victory by double digits. The Hogs won in quadruple overtime over Auburn last year, and I’m expecting another hotly contested battle this time around.
Bryan Leonard
UL-Monroe vs. New Mexico
Play: UL-Monroe +17½
The Warhawks enter play at 1-4 on the season against FBS opposition. Last week the team got its first win by beating Texas State. While the final scores show a 1-4 team when looking at yards per play ULM should be 2-3 on the season. Against Idaho the team beat the Vandals 6.9 ypp to 5.8 but a negative four turnover margin cost them the win.
This is a major sandwich game for the Lobos after knocking off fellow option offense Air Force last week in Dallas, and flying to the islands to take on Hawaii next week. While New Mexico 2-3 on the season against FBS opposition, it’s also 2-3 in yards per play. And take a look at the schedule this team has faced. New Mexico State, Rutgers, San Jose State, Boise State and Air Force. The first three opponents could be considered the very bottom 10 of a lot of peoples power ratings. Boise State is the only very good team the Lobos have played and it lost by 28 at home in that contest. ULM on the other hand has faced both Oklahoma and Auburn on the road. Simply put these two teams are much closer to even than this line dictates. In fact, when analyzing explosive plays per game the Warhawks are the better club. We are aware of the quarterback situation for the Warhawks and it has been figured into our handicap. This one is decided late.
Harry Bondi
CENTRAL FLORIDA -3.5 over UConn
The Huskies got dominated last week on the stat sheet by South Florida, but still managed a back-door cover, but that gives us some line value here, especially against a pissed off Central Florida team that lost in the final seconds against Temple last week. Despite that loss, UCF is still averaging over 30 points per game and will have too much firepower for a fading UConn defense that’s given up over 500 yards of total offense in three of its last four games.
Otto Sports
Arkansas at Auburn
Play: Over 55.5
As discussed in the Sportsmemo Blog on Tuesday, Auburn's offense has shown a small uptick in productivity since offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee took over play calling duties. Head coach Gus Malzahn on the switch: "I thought he's done an outstanding job," Malzahn said. "I think since that change you can see a difference in our offense with our tempo and just overall moving the football. That's real encouraging moving forward." I'm not going to get carried away by strong offensive showings against UL-Monroe and Mississippi State but it's reasonable to think the Tigers can have continued success this weekend against Arkansas who in three SEC games has allowed 503.7 ypg at 8.39 per clip. Perhaps an even more important stat in those three contests is that the Razorbacks allowed 53% third down conversions. Auburn's tempo is predicated on picking up 4-5 yards on first down and moving the chains which they should be able to do on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Arkansas has proven capable of moving the football. They picked up a lot of garbage yardage by playing from behind against Texas A&M and Alabama but last week posted 200+ on the ground and through the air in their 34-30 upset win over Ole Miss. What really stands out though is Arkansas' game scores against comparable or better competition. Contests against TCU, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Ole Miss produced point totals of 79, 69, 79, and 64.
Auburn's schedule really hasn't been conducive for overs. Clemson and LSU boast top-tier stops units while Arkansas State, UL-Monroe, and Mississippi State all have below average offenses. Texas A&M grades out as above average offensively and below average defensively in the SEC. The Aggies beat Auburn 29-16 but the pace of that game (166 plays) and combined yardage (877 yards) show they should have reached at least the high 50's if not for poor play in the red zone. I expect Saturday's game to produce a similar offensive output as we play over the total.