Rob Veno
Syracuse at Boston College
Play: Over 52.5
Off of last week’s winner with the Wake Forest-Florida State “under”, ACC free plays now stand at 5-1-1 on the season. This week the conference has only four games with six of its teams on a bye week but they are all still meaningful. Syracuse goes to Boston College in what shapes up as a bowl bid elimination game since the team which loses this one realistically has no shot at getting to six wins. The Orange enter off of an improbable 31-17 home upset win over Virginia Tech as +22.5 point underdogs. In that contest, the extreme tempo ran 100 plays from scrimmage resulting in 32 first downs, 10-of-21, 47.6% on third down conversions, and 561 total yards which were all season highs posted against Virginia Tech’s defense. Meanwhile, Boston College had a bye last week after being steamrolled 56-10 by Clemson . Their top-ranked total yards against defense was torched for 503 yards in that contest. The Eagles offense was bas as well averaging just 3.5 yards per play.
This game has one fundamental aspect to it that sticks out and appears to be something we can proactively apply here. As good as their overall defensive numbers are, Boston College appears to be a severely flawed unit against teams that push tempo. Versus Justin Fuentes’ Virginia Tech offense, BC allowed 476 yards (223 rushing/253 passing) and against the fast paced Clemson spread the final numbers were 503 yards (229 rushing/274 passing). The other four games were against methodical offenses (Georgia Tech, Massachusetts, Wagner and Buffalo) where the Eagles excelled allowing an average of 8 first downs and 145.5 ypg. Those averages are not really skewed either as Georgia Tech’s 240 yards and 17 points were the highest allowed in those four games. Syracuse quarterback Eric Dungey and the offense are executing first year head coach Dino Babers’ offense pretty efficiently which is going to be a challenge for BC’s defense.
The other side of this matchup pits Syracuse’s woeful defense against the Eagles offense which ranks 121st nationally at 322 ypg. However, Syracuse allowed Wake Forest’s 117th ranked offense which nets just 333 ypg to gain 330 in heavy rain conditions during Hurricane Matthew. Also, the 103rd ranked Connecticut offense produced a season high 425 yards and 24 points against Syracuse. The week off gives the BC coaching staff and the offense led by quarterback Patrick Towles plenty of time to prepare and work on a game plan knowing that Syracuse forces you to have to score plenty in order to beat them.
Syracuse is rolling offensively leading the ACC in passing with 346.1 ypg behind dual threat Dungey. They have faced two of the nation’s top 12 defenses in #7 Virginia Tech and #11 Louisville and in those games Syracuse averaged 493.5 ypg and 29.5 points. With the difficulties BC has shown against up-tempo spreads, it’s tough to see them stopping the Orange offense from at least equaling those numbers. On the other side, expect Boston College to either move the ball and the scoreboard against this iffy SU defense better than they have on average this season. That or have numerous three-and-outs which wear out their defense allowed Syracuse to go for 40+. Either way, the total is too low here at 52.5.
Ian Cameron
Central Florida at UConn
Play: Central Florida -4.5
I’ve bet against UConn a number of times this season and the price looks reasonable to do so again here as they host the improving UCF Knights. UConn is not a team I trust to beat comparable foes. They have been outgained in five of their last six games including last week’s 42-27 loss to South Florida (529-378). The score could have been a much worse had it not been for a +4 turnover margin in UConn’s favor.
Central Florida has shown the ability to stop the run and that is the key to this game. The Knights are surrendering just 126.7 yards per game on the ground at a paltry 3.2 yards per rush. UConn’s offense simply doesn’t work if they struggle to run the football because QB Bryant Shirreffs is just not a good enough pocket passer to carry his team to victory through the air. He has completed no more than 56.4% of his passes in UConn’s last three games against Houston, Cincinnati and South Florida and has only hit the 60% completion rate mark once in his last five games. Making things worse for the UConn offense is the impact injury absence of starting left guard Tommy Hopkins who sustained a leg injury in last week’s game and will miss the rest of the season.
On the other side of this matchup, the UCF offense has certainly taken a major step forward since freshman QB McKenzie Milton took over at the position. Milton has 5 TD passes and 2 INTs in his first three starts. UCF has shown the ability to win on the road with a 2-1 SU and ATS mark away from home with their only defeat coming in the Big House in Ann Arbor against Michigan. UCF suffered a tough OT loss at home against Maryland earlier this season and bounced back from that with a win and I expect another positive response from the Knights after a tough loss to Temple last week at home on the final play of the game.
Dave Cokin
Texas-San Antonio -9.5
I think it’s safe to say this CUSA clash won’t be getting much attention on Saturday, but I can see where there’s a case to be made for the favorite to potentially reward its backers.
I absorbed a loss last weekend on UTSA. The Roadrunners managed to win at Rice, but only by one point, so the Owls edged out the win the way we keep score here in Las Vegas.
Texas-San Antonio might well have gotten both the win and cover, but they passed on a short field goal attempt fairly late in the game, opting to try for the TD instead. That proved to be a bad decision, and in fact, the Roadrunners were lucky to preserve the straight up win as Rice drove down the field before missing a three that could have won the game.
This might well have been a flat spot as it turned out, as UTSA was off a blowout upset against Southern Miss and they were nowhere near as sharp against the reeling Owls. I am expecting better this week, particularly since the Roadrunners want to run the football and the Miners cannot stop the run.
UTEP head coach Sean Kugler is basically pulling out all the stop this week. The Miners didn’t play last week, so Kugler decided to go full pads in a very tough Tuesday workout. This was basically the type of drill that usually takes place prior to the season, so if you want to call it a back to square one practice, that’s probably accurate.
Kugler will also be making some lineup changes this week. Ryan Metz is now the starting QB, Kavika Johnson is going to now play mostly wide receiver and I just get the sense it’s desperation time for a coach who might be feeling some heat.
UTEP is mess to be sure. One of the local columnists wrote a Monday on the state of the athletic program. He bestowed praise on the athletic director, but bemoaned the apparent fact that the Miners can’t compete in football because they’re in El Paso. The story just had that defeated feel to it, and while this is just an opinion, I kind of get the impression that the writer is reflecting the atmosphere in the locker room.
On the numbers, I have UTSA -11.5, so there’s at least an edge as far as the power ratings are concerned. The stat comparison actually favors UTEP, which surprised me at first glance. But the team’s general lack of efficiency on both sides of the football.
I can’t say I’m wild about laying a bundle with a pretty ordinary Roadrunners entry. But this is a big game for the home team as far as getting bowl eligible down the road is concerned. UTEP has the look of a team that will help first year head coach Frank Wilson’s team achieve that objective. If the Miners fall down early, they have not exactly been immune to getting run over and I think that might be the case here. I’ll side with UTSA minus the points.
Tony George
Memphis vs. Navy
Play: Navy +2
On the Middies for homecoming off a bye week and with a win over Houston under their belt as well. Navy is ranked 25th in the country and this is a huge game for them. Memphis allowed 374 yards rushing last year to Navy and had serious issues beating Tulane last week as well. This is not the same Memphis team that rolls over everyone as in years past under a new coaching staff this year. No protection for the QB for the Tigers with a weak OL, and Navy has a very aggressive defense that kept QB Ward from Houston in check to some degree and we are catching points with a live dog at home here fully capable of winning this game by a TD +.
Navy will allow some points here but has an offense that can put up points (46 on a good Houston D) and QB Worth no joke at throwing the ball which is something new for Navy since all world QB Reynold graduated last year. Memphis 0-2 ATS on the road this year against a rested and prepared Navy team who won this game 45-20 last year on the road, and while it will be closer than that, give me the Middies!
Scott Spreitzer
Memphis vs. Navy
Play: Navy +2½
The Middies will look to extend their true home field run to 14 wins in a row and in the process, hold onto first place in the AAC West. Will Worth has proven his worth since taking over as starting QB in the Navy triple-option and will provide the Memphis Tiger defense with their toughest run-based test yet. We aren't firm believers in the Tigers quite yet, beating up on softies SE Missouri State, Kansas, & Bowling Green before conference season began. We give them credit for their come-from-behind win over Temple, after trailing by 13 points and they are in off a win over option-based Tulane. But there's a big difference between Tulane's option in its initial season and Navy's fierce and tough to prepare for attack. We also have a nice scheduling advantage for the Middies. Navy has not traveled since October 1 and had a chance to get a couple players healthy with last week's postponement against ECU. The unexpected week off also allowed the Middies to escape a potential flat spot after beating Houston the previous week. Navy enters on an 18-6 ATS run at home and they're 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games, overall. Meanwhile, the Tigers have covered just six of their last 25 (3 pushes) on the road against teams with a winning home record.
Matt Fargo
Fresno State vs. Utah State
Play: Utah State -16½
Fresno St. has just one win this season and that was against Sacramento St. of the FCS. The Bulldogs have been competitive a couple of other times however in five of their six FBS games, they have been outgained by 132, 365, 164, 133 and 147 total yards so it has hardly been pretty. They have just one road win over their last 10 trips on the highway and they are coming into a bad situation here. Utah St. was supposed to contend in the Mountain Division of the MWC but it has dropped its first three conference games including a loss as a favorite at Colorado St. in their last game. The Aggies are coming off a bye week so they will be extra motivated to get into the win column and pile it on for that matter. Additionally, they have won and covered six straight games when playing with two weeks of rest. They are 2-1 at home and the lone loss came against Air Force in a game could have won as they outgained the Falcons by 88 yards but lost the turnover battle 2-0. Going back, they are 16-2 in their last 18 home games and covering this number should be a non-issue. Fresno St. is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games and going back further, the Bulldogs are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road games following a home loss. Utah St. meanwhile is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after scoring 24 or more in the first half last game.
Matt Josephs
Tulane vs. Tulsa
Play:Tulane +11
Tulane got the backdoor cover last week at home against Memphis and is a double digit underdog again on Saturday. They are one of the poorest offensive teams in the country, but should be able to get healthy against a Tulsa team allowing 33 points per game. The Golden Hurricane aren't very good at slowing down the run and are coming off a tough loss to Houston last time out. The Green Wave are very good against the pass and that will be needed against Dane Evans. The one concern is that they haven't really been tested outside of last week against the Tigers. Tulsa has been crushed by teams the last few weeks giving up 119 points in their last three games. Tulsa has covered just four of their last 15 home games.
Bill Biles
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -18
When have you ever seen a battle of 2 top ten teams with a spread this high. Vegas sure does not have much confidence in A&M to compete in this one. Alabama is a dominant team. If Texas A&M does not get its running game going it cannot move the ball. Bama wins this one easily as they completely shut down A&M.
Freddy Wills
Central Florida vs. Connecticut
Play: Under 48
I like the under in this game between UCF and Connecticut. The under is 33-16-2 in UCF’s last 51 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. That’s the key as Central Florida is a run first team running it 61% of the time and 65% on the road. Central Florida does not trust their group of QB’s who have 1 TD and 2 INT’s on the road and that’s where Uconn has issues on their defense. If you can pass the ball well then you are a threat to score a lot of points against Uconn.
I think this sets up well for the under as well looking at the fact that both teams come off misleading totals in their last game. Uconn played South Florida and the score was 14-3 at the half, but the final ended up being 42-27 with a ton of points scored in the second half. Central Florida meanwhile played Temple last week and had 25 points despite only 296 yards of offense while going 2-12 on third down.
Both teams are very good in third down defense, and red zone defense which makes me feel comfortable that there will be a lot of field goals. Central Florida struggles to score points when they can’t run the ball. Sure they scored 53 and 47 on East Carolina and Florida International on the road, but both of those teams struggle stopping the run while Uconn is ranked 55th in adjusted run defense. Uconn has really only given up big rushing games to Navy, a challenge in itself and South Florida who has a top 10 rushing attack with a dual threat QB. Uconn even kept Houston’s attack in check.
Oskeim Sports
Wyoming at Nevada
Play: Wyoming -4
Nevada is a bad football team on both sides of the ball, grading out as 0.8 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yards per play) and 0.6 yards per play worse than average defensively (6.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.5 yards per play).
The Wolf Packs's run-first attack is 0.9 yards per rush attempt worse than average (4.3 yards per rush play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yards per rush attempt) and plays into the strength of Wyoming's defense. Specifically, the Cowboys' stop unit has been 0.7 yards per play better than average against the run this season (3.8 yards per rush attempt to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yards per rush play).
Most teams can exploit Wyoming's subpar secondary that is 1.0 yards per pass play worse than average, but the Wolf Pack are averaging just 179 yards per game through the air in 2016 at 6.7 yards per pass attempt. I don't see how Nevada will be able to move the chains in this game against a well-rested Wyoming squad coming off a bye and showing significant growth under head coach Craig Bohl.
Wyoming is averaging 33.2 points per game this season and should have success moving the ball against a terrible Nevada stop unit that struggles against both the run (0.7 yards per rush play worse than average) and the pass (0.6 yards per pass attempt worse than average). From a technical standpoint, Wyoming is 7-1 ATS in its last eight October games, whereas the Wolf Pack are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 October affairs and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
Bryan Leonard
Houston at SMU
Play:SMU +20.5
The Cougars lost to Navy 46-40 which cost them a chance to get into the CFB playoffs. That bubble burst showed last week in a non-covering 38-31 victory over Tulsa. Now the team is expected to win big on the road at SMU, in a game that won't be as easy as many predict.
Before the bye the Mustangs took that aforementioned Tulsa team to overtime on the road. Now with an extra week to prepare we can see SMU being very competitive Saturday. Look for a high scoring game with the Mustangs keeping this one close throughout.
Dwayne Bryant
Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan
Play: Western Michigan -23.5
The visiting Eagles are coming off a 27-20 upset road win as 7-point dogs at Ohio. They now sit 2-1 in the MAC West standings, just a game behind the undefeated Broncos. All that upset win did was get Western Michigan's attention, which is definitely not a good thing. The Broncos have outscored the Eagles by a whopping 74 points over the last two meetings. So Western Michigan may have overlooked Eastern Michigan had they lost at Ohio like they were supposed to. But an Eagles win here puts them in a MAC West tie with the Broncos, so no chance the Broncos take their proverbial foot off the gas here.
Western Michigan is off an impressive win of their own, a 41-0 road win at Akron as 14-point chalk. It was the Broncos' seventh game of the season, and was also the game in which they committed their first turnover of the season! QB Zach Terrell has tossed 17 TD passes and NO interceptions. That's insane! Terrell has completed an incredible 70% of his pass attempts this season. But don't sleep on the Western Michigan running game, as junior Jarvion Franklin rushed 33 times for a school-record 281 yards last week.
With only MAC West cellar dweller Ball State on deck, there is no look-ahead for Western Michigan. It's a lot of points to lay, but I don't think it will be enough. I have the Broncos winning by 28.
Mike Rose
NC State at Louisville
Play: Louisville -19.5
The Lamar Jackson Heisman campaign has quieted down in recent weeks with the Louisville Cardinals quarterback putting forth his dullest performance of the season last week in a non-covering home win against the Duke Blue Devils. The propaganda machine will likely ramp back up big time in Week 8 if he’s able to lead his club to a decisive victory over an NC State Wolfpack squad that just took Clemson to overtime as hefty Death Valley underdogs.
Even though the Cardinals entered last week’s tilt with the Blue Devils off a bye, you can’t count it against them that they still came out a bit lethargic. The close defeat to Clemson the week before took a ton out of the team from the coaching staff on down, so it wasn’t much of a surprise that they came nowhere close to covering the 35 point spread in the 24-14 triumph.
It is however possible that NC State suffers the same fate as they after dropping a heartbreaker in overtime to the same Clemson team the Cardinals fell to by six points in regulation. Bobby Petrino and his staff failed to get the team up for last week’s tilt, but with the Wolfpack playing them close each of the last two seasons, will likely have them firing on all cylinders for this one.
After coming oh so close to pulling the upset in Clemson, I can’t help but think the Wolfpack will be in major letdown mode this week. That paired with the Ville looking to turn the page on a terrible showing last week will have me laying the hefty chalk with the home team.
Colorado at Stanford
Play: Colorado +110
It’s been as one sided as it gets the last three times the Stanford Cardinal battled the Colorado Buffaloes with David Shaw’s squad winning each by the aggregate score of 138-17. But this is 2016 and Mike MacIntyre’s troops are the current South Division leaders looking to avenge all the ugly defeats the program has absorbed since becoming a member of the Pac-12 five-plus years ago.
The Cardinal has played to the toughest overall schedule in the country per the current Sagarin Ratings. That in and of itself is a bit shocking, but when you actually put the schedule under the microscope, the results are telling. Still, Stanford has only won four of those six games and it was gifted a miraculous win against UCLA and played USC before it started to catch fire.
This team is far removed from the one that shellacked Iowa in the Rose Bowl last season. Not to be outdone, the Buffaloes have played to the No. 38 ranked strength of schedule, so they haven’t gotten out to their fabulous start against a bunch of cream puffs.
We faded the Cardinal against both Washington schools and came out victorious. That win in South Bend against the Irish hardly changes my perception of this team. Even with McCaffery in the mix, it doesn’t compare to past teams. Colorado has been nothing short of an ATM this season and it’s playing with revenge for the beatings it’s taken from Stanford in recent years. Sometime soon Colorado will be overvalued by the oddsmakers, but that time isn’t now.
Marc Lawrence
Tulane +10½
Edges - Green Wave: 3-1-1 ATS versus FBS foes this season. Hurricane: 0-6 ATS home favorites off a loss; and 5-19-1 ATS home after allow 38 or more points. With the Wave owning nearly 100 YPG the better defense and playing with revenge from a season-ending 11-point loss that cost them a bowl berth last year, and Tulsa in the middle of a Houston-Memphis revenge sandwich, we recommend a 1* play on Tulane.
Jeff Allen
Texas San Antonio -9½
The Miners had a bye week last week which couldn't have come at a better time after five straight double-digit losses. The UTEP season is circling the drain and they run into a surging UTSA team that suddenly has Bowl aspirations. The Roadrunners got an important road win over Rice on the road in last. Last two here were a mauling of Southern Miss and a close loss to a then healthy and 100% Arizona State team. UTSA has circled the wagons for HC Frank Wilson and to take the next step, need to beat downtrodden teams playing out the string like this UTEP squad. USTA 38-14.