Will Rogers
Hawaii vs. Air Force
Pick: Hawaii
The set-up: Air Force (4-2 / 1-2 in MWC) started with four wins out of the gate in the 2016 season, including one against rival Navy. However, the Falcons fell 35-26 at Wyoming back on Oct. 8 and then last Saturday, lost a back-and-forth game in Dallas to New Mexico, 45-40. Hawaii travels to Colorado Springs to take on the Falcons, off a disappointing 41-38 loss to UNLV in Honolulu, dropping the team below .500 on the season and more damaging, to 2-1 and tied with UNLV, with both schools behind 2-0 San Diego State in the West Division of the MWC.
Hawaii: Dru Brown, a sophomore transfer from College of San Mateo, took over as starting QB in Hawaii’s MWC opener against Nevada, leading the Rainbow Warriors to back-to-back wins conference wins, 38-17 at home against Nevada and then 34-17 at San Jose State 34-17. (see above). He completing 76.5 percent of his passes for 509 yards with 4 TDs and zero INTs in those two contests. Brown played well again last Saturday vs. UNLV, completing 17 of 32 for 217 yards with two TDs and again, zero INTs. The running game had 229 yards (6.9) but in the end, the Hawaii defense let the team down, allowing 41 points on 535 yards. Hawaii comes into this contest allowing 38.9 PPG (122nd) on 487.6 YPG (120th).
Air Force: In stark contrast, the Falcons are allowing 24.8 PPG (49th) on 34.2 YPG (27th), while surpassing Hawaii (30.4 PPG) on offense as well. Air Force is averaging 34.3 PPG (38th) and owns the nation’s 6th-best running game, averaging 275.2 YPG on 4.8 YPC. The Falcons have controlled the all-time series, going 13-6-1 and have taken the last two meetings, including last year’s 58-7 win in Honolulu. It’s Troy Calhoun’s experience that gives the edge to the Falcons.
The pick: Troy Calhoun is in his 10th season at Air Force and has led the Falcons to eight bowls in his first nine. Meanwhile, Hawaii’s Nick Rolovich is in his first-ever season as a head coach. However, there can be little doubt that the former Hawaii QB has brought some real positive energy to a program which had gone just 11-40 over the previous four seasons. That said, the lack of depth on the defensive side of the ball reared its ugly head again last Saturday against UNLV. Hawaii twice had a chance to protect a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter but in each case, UNLV was able to put together long TD drives. Will the Hawaii “D” be able to contain Air Force’s triple-option in this one? Likely not but an offense led by a “coming of age” QB in Dru Brown, along with a solid running game, one can expect Hawaii to ‘hang around.’ Hawaii was more than a TD favorite last week but here, the Rainbow Warriors are getting more than two TDs.
Sean Murphy
NC State vs. Louisville
Play: Louisville -19½
Louisville is coming off a less than impressive 24-14 victory over Duke last week but I’m not expecting it to stall against the Wolfpack here.
N.C. State fell just short in overtime against Clemson last week – a valiant effort on the road against the undefeated Tigers. We were behind the Tigers in that game and while they never sniffed an ATS cover, I still feel that we deserved a better fate. Clemson marched up and down the field all afternoon but simply couldn’t finish enough drives with touchdowns to ever pull away.
Credit the Wolfpack for hanging tough in that one, but they’ll face a tougher test here as the Cardinals stay home and aim to keep piling up victories.
Note that Louisville will be playing only its second game in the last three weeks so it should be fresh. Meanwhile, N.C. State is coming off back-to-back slugfests over the last two weeks (prior to the Clemson game the Wolfpack defeated Notre Dame by a 10-3 score).
While the Cardinals are known for their offense, I look for their defense to set the tone on Saturday as they ultimately deliver a convincing win over a quality opponent.
John Ryan
Fresno State vs. Utah State
Play: Utah State -17
Technical Discussion Points: The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. FSU is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards over the last 3 seasons; 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons; USU is a near-perfect 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards.
Fundamental Discussion Points: This next matchup we head to Utah for a Mountain West matchup between Utah State Aggies and the Fresno State Bulldogs. Utah State sits at 2-4 and Fresno State at 1-6, both teams at the bottom of the Mountain West Conference. Although both of these teams are the bottom of the barrel in the Mountain West Utah St. is the better team. The Fresno State defense has given up 235 total points this year compared to Utah state who has just given up 150. Utah St. should have no problem at all moving the ball against this horrid Fresno State defense. Utah state averages a solid 5 yards per carry and their QB Kent Myers has a 60% completion percentage. Look for Utah state to move the ball well all game and cover the 16.5 point spread at home.
Jack Jones
TCU +6.5
The TCU Horned Frogs are being undervalued because of their result the last time they took the field. They only beat Kansas 24-23 as 30.5-point road favorites. But for whatever reason, the Horned Frogs have struggled for three straight years to put away Kansas. I simply believe it's an aberration.
Head coach Gary Patterson had a bye last week to right some wrongs. He called out his players for not being tough enough, and I certainly believe these two weeks will work wonders for them in that department. Patterson will have his players ready to go Saturday. After all, his teams are 12-1 SU & 13-0 ATS in their last 13 games off a regular season bye week.
Conversely, West Virginia comes in overvalued after stomping Texas Tech 48-17 on the road as 3-point favorites last week. However, the Mountaineers were coming off a bye and were primed for a big performance. Now they'll be up against a team coming off a bye in TCU this week.
Also, the Mountaineers may be 5-0, but they haven't played anyone as good as TCU. Their four wins have come against Missouri, Youngstown State, BYU (by 3) and Kansas State (by 1). If both BYU and K-State can hang with the Mountaineers, the Horned Frogs certainly can as well.
TCU stomped West Virginia 40-10 at home last year as 12-point favorites. They outgained the Mountaineers by 289 total yards in that win. The three previous meetings went right down to the wire. All three were decided by 3 points or less, and two of them went to overtime. I really look for this game to go down to the wire as well, so there's a very good chance this 6.5-point spread comes into play.
The Horned Frogs are 7-0 ATS versus good rushing teams who average 200 or more rushing yards per game over the last three seasons. TCU is 7-0 ATS off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference opponent over the last three seasons. The Horned Frogs are 8-1 ATS off a road win over the last three years. The Mountaineers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.
Dave Price
Texas/Kansas State Under 54
The Key: Charlie Strong's defense finally lived up to its potential last week in a 27-6 win over Iowa State. The Longhorns held the Cyclones to just 280 yards of total offense in the win. Now they face another offensively-challenged team in the Kansas State Wildcats this week. The Wildcats have been held to 13 points by Stanford, to 16 by West Virginia and to 17 by Oklahoma. Not to mention, starting QB Jesse Ertz is banged up. But the Wildcats do have a great defense that is only giving up 21.0 points per game this season. Head-to-head history makes me really like this UNDER. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with combined scores of 32, 23 and 52 points, respectively. Those 32 and 23-point efforts came the past two seasons. I look for this game to play out similarly.
Alex Smart
Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Over 66
Both these teams have explosive offenses . Old Dominion has scored 33,52,36 points in their last three games, while Western Kentucky , in their L/5 scored 31,30,50, 52, 44 points respectively. The two most recent meetings in this series, in 2014, 15 saw 85 combined points scored last season, and 117 combined points the year before. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation today. W KENTUCKY is 10-0 OVER L/10 after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game with an average combined score of 83.8 ppg going on the scoreboard.OLD DOMINION is 14-3 OVER L/17 on the road with a combined average of 73.2 ppg going on the board.
Jimmy Boyd
LSU -7½
A lot of people are going to look at this line and think the books have made a mistake. While LSU has won and covered their last two games, I don’t think the public is ready to back them. At least not against a top level team like Ole Miss. While the Rebels are 3-3, their 3 losses have all been close. The public just isn’t going to trust the Tigers laying over a touchdown.
This one is all about the situation. Any hope that Ole Miss had of sneaking into the playoffs is gone with their loss last week to Arkansas. The Rebels have "ZERO" to play for down the stretch. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a team that had such high expectations. They also beat LSU 38-17 last year, so there’s no revenge angle for them to play.
As for the Tigers, this team has looked like a different animal since they fired Les Miles. LSU beat Missouri 42-7 as a mere 12-point favorite in their first game without Miles. They followed it up by taking care of business against Southern Miss, in a 35-point win. What’s scary is they did that without star running back Leonard Fournette. Who is expected to be back this week.
Keep in mind, this is a team that still has a shot at winning the SEC West. While the Tigers are 0-1 in league play, they still have Alabama and Texas A&M left to play.
The big problem with LSU under Miles was the offense not producing at the level expected. For whatever reason, it’s been clicking since he left. A big party of that is the play of Danny Etling at quarterback, who has replaced Brandon Harris. Etling is completing 58.8% of his attempts. Not great, but a big improvement over Harris at 52.0. He’s also averaging 7.8 yards/attempt compared to Harris at 5.6. With the way this team can run the ball, that’s all they need out of the QB position to torment opposing defenses.
An uninspired Ole Miss defense could be in for a long night. The Rebels come into this game ranked 104th in the country against the run, allowing 212.8 ypg. They also have had their issues against the pass, allowing 233.2 ypg (74th).
What gets overlooked with LSU and their struggling offense is how good the defense has played. The Tigers are the only team in the country to hold all of their opponents under 21 points. They also have allowed a FBS-low 6 touchdowns (best red zone defense in SEC). Clearly they have talent on hand to slow down this Ole Miss offense.
The other key factor here is when this game is being played. It’s one thing to go to Memorial Stadium for 3:30 afternoon kickoff. It’s a whole different beast when you play this team on their home field at night. Especially when it’s a nationally televised game like this one. Tigers are 8-1 ATS at home in Weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
Brandon Shively
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech
Play: Over 84½
Oklahoma might win this game but they have a defense that has struggled all season long, due to inexperience and injuries and will have a tough time winning this game by more than 2 scores. Injuries are still a factor for the Sooners defense Saturday night in Lubbock. I expect Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury to have his team ready for this game in this ‘Blackout’ that will have one of the largest crowds in program history.
Texas Tech scores points at home. Before last week’s 17 point disappointing game against West Virginia, the Red Raiders had scored 50+ points in 9 consecutive home games. Texas Tech ranks 2nd in total offense in the nation and 5th in scoring at 48.8 ppg this year. While the Sooners are going to score, I expect Texas Tech to be able to trade scores.
The Sooners will be without stud running back Samaje Perine and this is a big dropoff in my opinion as Joe Mixon is not as polished and durable as Perine. Mixon can tote the load, but the Sooners don’t have any depth under Mixon and for a guy that also returns kicks and punts, fatigue might be an issue in the 2nd half or possible mental mistakes. Speaking of mistakes, Oklahoma is ranked 122nd in the nation with a -7 turnover margin. Texas Tech has been much more efficient having only lost 1 fumble this year and I look for them to take care of the ball here.
Texas Tech covered in 2014 as a home underdog of 14 points against Oklahoma in a 42-30 games. This spread today matches the most points they have gotten at home in the last 4 years.
The total for this game is set high, but the OVER is 11-1 in Oklahoma’s L12 road games when listed as a road favorite. They have scored 52 points or more in their L4 road games when laying points. Earlier this year, there were 98 points scored when they played TCU. While my advised play is on Texas Tech, I think a wager on the ‘Over’ is also a possibility.
In closing, Oklahoma has not shown that they are capable of playing a perfect game for 40 minutes and I think the Sooners are overrated and not nearly as talented on defense as some think. The Red Raiders are going to score against this Sooners defense that has serious issues in the secondary. I am not calling for an upset, but I think we see a back and forth game with a final score in the 52-42 range.
Kyle Hunter
TCU vs. West Virginia
Play: TCU +6
The TCU Horned Frogs aren't a team I'm extremely high on for the year. Still, I like them in this spot. TCU won 24-23 over Kansas on the road in their last game. TCU was very fortunate to win that game. Gary Patterson was really disappointed with his team's effort in that game. TCU is coming off a bye week now, and I think TCU likely had two solid weeks of practice here.
West Virginia is starting to feel good about themselves. The Mountaineers are thinking about some lofty goals and are coming off a big win at Texas Tech. While West Virginia is better than I thought they would be this year, I think they still have a lot to prove. They haven't really beaten anyone very good this year.
Gary Patterson is a better coach than Dana Holgorsen. How about this statistic? TCU is a whopping 13-0 ATS in their last 13 games in the regular season when they had more than a week to prepare. They are 12-1 straight up in those 13 games. Basically, Patterson is great at getting his team ready when he has extra time to prepare.
Mike Anthony
Middle Tenn St vs. Missouri
Play: Missouri -7.5
Missouri is going to be able to run all game long, going against a defense that has given up 13 TDs on the ground so far this year. Missouri put up 79 in their last home game they light it up again. Middle Tennessee has shown they can really pick up some dumb penalties in the worst situations on numerous occasions. Middle Tennessee has to try and get that adjusted in a hurry, to keep this close, otherwise, on the road - blowout. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games Missouri wins big here on Saturday afternoon!
Larry Ness
Syracuse vs. Boston College
Pick: Boston College
Syracuse (3-4 / 1-2 in the ACC) will take on Boston College (3-3 / 0-3 in the ACC) Saturday afternoon at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. Syracuse is 6th in the seven-team ACC Atlantic Division and Boston College, naturally, is dead-last. The Orange have won four of the last six meetings plus come off the biggest win of Dino Babers’ first season. Syracuse hosted Va Tech last Saturday and as a 23-point underdog, won 31-17. The ‘Cuse didn’t just beat the then-No. 19 Hokies, they rolled up 561 yards on an excellent defensive Va Tecgh unit. QB Dungey passed for 311 yards with one TD pass plus added 106 yards and another TD. "The biggest thing about this win is that any time you take over a program you're trying to get everybody to buy in, you're trying to get everybody to work as one," coach Dino Babers said after the game. "...It's always that way until you get that one win that solidifies you, that brings you together, that hardship that brings the family closer together. That's what happened today. We're now family."
Boston College last played October 7th, losing emphatically 56-10 to Clemson. Despite that blowout loss, the Boston College defense ranks 3rd in yards allowed (252.2 YPG) and 23.7 PPG, which ranks 43rd. The Eagles had hoped Kentucky transfer QB Patrick Towles would add “something extra” to this year’s oddense (BC averaged only 17.2 PPG in 2015). However, that hasn’t been the case, as he’s completed just 50.8 percent for 897 yards, although he’s thrown only three INTs (against seven TDs). Still, BC has hardly had a breakout year offensively, averaging 21.2 PPG. The Eagles have been outscored by 105-10 in their last two conference contests, with Towles going a combined 20-of-50 for 171 yards.
Boston College has notably lost 11 consecutive ACC games but as fate would have it, the school’s last league win came back on Nov 29, 2014, a 28-7 triumph at home against Syracuse. This is the Eagles' fourth straight home game and arguably its best chance to end their ACC losing streak. Syracuse is off a HUGE upset win over Va Tech plus BC head coach Steve Addazzio and DC Jim Reid have had two full weeks to prepare the defense for a big effort. The bet is BC!
Jim Feist
Washington St at Arizona St
Pick: Over
Washington State passes the football all the time, on a 7-3 run over the total on the road. Coach Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense is once again in the capable hands of junior quarterback Luke Falk who ranks fifth in the FBS in passing (352.2 yards per game) and has thrown 16 touchdown passes. The Over is 10-4-1 in the Cougars last 15 games in October. Arizona State has trouble on defense, losing at South Division co-leader Colorado 40-16 last week. The Over is 8-3 when the Sun Devils face a team with a winning record.
Alatex Sports
Middle Tennessee St at Missouri
Play: Missouri -7.5
Missouri enters this matchup with a 2-4 record under new head coach Barry Odom including back-to-back blowout losses at LSU and Florida. In their six games, the Tigers have faced three elite defenses in West Virginia, LSU and Florida and their offense has struggled in those three losses. However, against average or worse defenses, the Tigers’ new passing offense has been good and they will face an opposing defense that they should be able to take advantage of this week in Middle Tennessee State.
MTSU allowed perhaps the worst SEC offense, Vanderbilt, to pile up 47 points with 344 total yards and 5.1 yards per rush. MTSU also allowed 34 points to La Tech and 44 last week to Western Kentucky. This defense will struggle again against SEC athletes, and I expect Missouri to get back on track against the Blue Raiders.
Missouri should also pose some problems on defense for the MTSU offense. Despite the lopsided score last week against Florida, the Tiger defense only allowed 19 points. Florida scored one touchdown on a kick return and two scores on interception returns. MTSU’s short passing game was able to move the ball against Vandy, but they bogged down in the red zone and scored just 24 points. The same should happen this week if they move the ball as well.
This is a big game for Missouri in terms of bowl eligibility. They need a win here and then wins in each of their next three games against Kentucky, South Carolina and Vandy to get to six wins before closing the season at Tennessee and hosting Arkansas. The two previous blowouts losses over the last two weeks should have given the coaches their players’ attention. I think they will be ready to play and if that is the case, they are better than a touchdown at home against MTSU, which still has its sights set on a conference championship and won't place as much emphasis on a midseason non-conference game.
Steve Merril
Penn St. +19.5
Ohio State is coming off a tough 30-23 overtime win at Wisconsin last week in which the Buckeyes were outgained 450-411 in total yards. Ohio State must now travel again and face a rested Penn State squad that is coming off their bye week after back-to-back home wins. Penn State has a solid 4-2 SU record this season with only one loss coming by more than three points. The Nittany Lions have a strong offense that is averaging 30.5 points per game and 5.9 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 22.5 ppg and 4.8 yppl). The Nittany Lions also took Ohio State to overtime in a close 31-24 loss on this field two years ago.
Sleepyj
Ga. Southern / New Mexico St Over 65.5
I'll be on the over for this one. We get two offenses that excel in the pass and run. Geo Southern is a very good running team. Most teams struggle to stop them, but New Mexico St may have a real tough time slowing them down at all..Aggies rank 121st in the nation stopping the run...That's not going to help New Mexico St on defense at all...Geo Southern should feel good about that tonight...On the flip side New Mexico St is a high flying offensive team that loves to throw the ball...New Mexico St ranks 18th in the nation at 310ypg....They avg nearly 14 ypc and that alone will move the chains...Geo Southern rush defense ranks 60th, but most teams have success throwing instead of running...New Mexico st should be able to both in this game...As far as Geo Southern throwing the ball, it's rather limited at 150ypg...What they do though is they fool you with running so much they burn ya with an occasional pass...Geo Southern is a very good 3rd down conversion team as well....They rank 10th on offense in that category and new Mexico St ranks 2nd to last in the nation....They just can't stop teams from moving the chains...Geo Southern isn't any better as they rank 24th...That might look a bit alarming, but most teams don't even get into 3rd down because they are getting 1st downs within 1 or 2 downs....I expect both teams to move the ball rather easily here...65.5 might seem a like a ton of points with a team that runs the ball, but New Mexico St defense is rather brutal..I'll put up a unit on this total tonight.