Rob Vinciletti
Hawaii vs. Air Force
Play: Air Force -17
The fly boys have covered 12 of the last 15 at home and fit a solid system here today that plays on favorites in this range vs an opponent off 2 favored losses the last one by 10 or more like Hawaii. These favorites cover over 80% long term. The Rainbow Warriors were upset last week and now travel to the main land. They have failed to cover 6 of 7 vs winning teams and 10 of 12 off a conference loss. Look for Air force to emerge with a win and cover.
Bob Harvey
Rutgers vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -18
The numbers don't lie. If you don't believe me ask anyone connected with the Rutgers football team.
One bad number follows another bad number. Rutgers is averaging 6.5 points per game on the road. That's less than a touchdown and barely a blip above two field goals The scoring differential is 47.5 points. 6.5 scored vs. 53 allowed. Those are amazing numbers. Only five teams in the FBS are giving up more yards per game on the ground and only one team has allowed more total rushing yards than Rutgers. They've dropped four straight games, scoring 14 points in the process. Not surprisingly, RU is 0-2 on the road and 0-2 ATS.
Minnesota (4-2, 1-2 Big Ten) snapped a two-game losing streak last week and picked up its first conference victory in the process.
Brad Diamond
Purdue at Nebraska
Play: Nebraska
The Huskers show 5-0 SU&4-1 ATS, while the Boilers are just stumbling this season. In fact, they now have been by the injury bug of late. When you add in the fact, this is a home game for Nebraska who is in REVENGE for their 55-45 loss last season to Purdue, you can fully understand our position here. Realize the Huskers have Wisconsin next, but this being a get back game fully erases that letdown possibility.
Cal Sports
Oklahoma St at Kansas
Play: Kansas +24.5
Why back a team that is 1-19 their last 20 games? It’s because the Jayhawks are probably 10 points better than LY’s squad which went 0-12. I expect them to still struggle for a while on the road, but at home they showed what they are capable 2 weeks ago when they led TCU 23-14 into the 4Q and while they lost 24-23 they outgained the Horned Frogs 470-366. Oklahoma St is only playing their second road game of the year even though they were at home when they played non-top 40 teams such as Iowa St and Central Michigan they were actually outgained in both. The last 2 times the Cowboys visited here they were a 21 point favorite in 2014 and only won 27-20 and they were a 27.5 point favorite in 2012 and won 20-14.
OSU will be looking past this week’s opponent as they have their Homecoming on deck versus West Virginia which is one of the 2 undefeated teams left in the Big-12.
Buster Sports
Texas at Kansas St
Play: Kansas St +1
Kansas St took another loss at the hands of Oklahoma last week and now they come home to face the Longhorns who ended a 3 game losing streak with a home win against Iowa St. last week. We will be laying the small wood with the Wildcats on Saturday. Kansas ST gave up 510 yards last week to Oklahoma but they still have a huge defensive edge in this game against Longhorns. Kansas St. QB Jesse Ertz will play on Saturday despite playing only one set of downs in the second half last week. It might not matter who is behind center as the Wildcats will look to run the ball and keep that potent Texas offense off the field. The Texas offense is ranked 19th in yards per game with 500 and they have played much better football of late, but going on the road to play in Manhattan is a whole different animal. The Texas offense will play against the 19th ranked defense in the Nation in total yards and the Wildcats will be ready to play after throwing in a real stinker against Oklahoma last week. This game could very well come down to turnovers, and the Longhorns have been very sloppy of late with 7 in their last 4 games. In comparison the Wildcats have only had one in their last 4. Backing our selection is the fact that the Longhorns are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings between the clubs and the fact that the Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings between the clubs.
Tony Finn
Syracuse at Boston College
Play: Boston College -4.5
Saturday’s Free ACC Game of the Week will decide who resides at the bottom of the Atlantic Division standings. The Syracuse Orange visit the Boston College Eagles (-5, 51) with a scheduled kickoff at 12:30 p.m. ET on Alumni Stadium field in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts.
The ‘Cuse are coming off a stunning 31-17 victory over the Virginia Tech Hokies while BC aims to end an 11-game conference losing streak. The oddsmakers are giving the Orange only a small line of credit for their upset win over VT and believe the public will agree as they have positioned the Eagles as five-point home favorites for Saturday’s ACC event.
Orange
Putting too much stock into Syracuse’s win over the Hokies would be a mistake. Giving credit when and where credit is due is in order for what the Orange were able to accomplish last weekend. Head coach Dino Babers and his staff can build on the win, but more in recruiting terms, than in every week performance. This league test doesn’t project to play out like their win over the Hokies a week ago. The Orange will attempt to play up-tempo but won’t have the success or the opportunities they did against the likes of VT. The offense combined for nearly 300 total snaps in their games against VT, South Florida and Louisville but the overall production was pedestrian and undisciplined for the most part and resulted in just one win, last week against the Hokies.
This is a young and inexperienced Syracuse offense that travels to face off against a fresh and physical Boston College defense. This contest will not allow the Orange to have a large number of offensive opportunities and won’t be played at the same pace as those aforementioned games.
Eagles
Boston College has had more than two weeks to prepare for this conference tilt. The Eagles last game came on October 7th, a contest that saw them drop a 56-10 affair to No #4 ranked Clemson. We fully expect the coaching staff of Steve Addazzio in combination with defensive coordinator Jim Reid to be prepared defensively resulting in short field position and opportunistic points.
The BC offense is as Plain Jane as it comes in the ACC but they will have success moving the chains and keeping quarterback Eric Dungey and the Syracuse offense off the field. Dungey will not be able to compile or match their 561 yards of a week ago against a stout Eagles defense.
This is the Eagles' fourth straight home game and the schools best opportunity to end their miserable 11-game ACC losing streak. While BC has been outscored by 95 points in their last two games the defense is the squads staple and ranks in the Top-5 among FBS schools allowing less than 250 yards per game to their opponents.
Marco D'Angelo
Akron at Ball State
Play: Akron +3.5
Jumping on Akron here plus the points as this line in my opinion is too and is an over reaction to last weeks 41-0 loss to W. Michigan. Fact is W. Michigan is the best team in the MAC. That game really doesn't affect Akron as M. Michigan is in the other division. Akron is still in 1st place and now faces a team they can handle. Ball St won by 10 last week over a bad Buffalo team that they trailed at halftime. With line over the FG there is only one way to go here. Akron wins 31-27.
River City Sharps
Oklahoma -14
Baker Mayfield played his early college career at Texas Tech and Oklahoma’s starting QB and leader returns to Lubbock Saturday night as the Sooners visit the Red Raiders. After Oklahoma dropped non-conference games to both Houston and Ohio State, they have begun to get it rolling in conference play and are 3-0 in the Big 12 headed into this game. The Red Raiders are headed in the opposite direction after suffering a 48-17 crushing at the hands of West Virginia last weekend. Neither of these teams are great defensively, but this Texas Tech team is just awful on that side of the ball. While the Sooners will be missing RB Samaje Perine this week, they still have a very capable backup in Joe Mixon. The Red Raiders offense is led by Patrick Mahomes, who leads the nation in passing yards per game at almost 430 YPG and the Red Raiders rank fifth nationally in scoring and 48.8 PPG. While the Red Raiders like to throw gaudy offensive numbers up against bad teams, Tech is 0-6 against the number in their last tries against teams with a winning record and Oklahoma is feasting against Big 12 opponents, going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 tries. Oklahoma will make enough stops defensively and Tech has no answers defensively, which means the Sooners win this one and cover the two TD’s.
Brandon Lee
Cubs +122
Chicago responded just as I expected with their backs against the wall, taking both Game 4 and Game 5 to pull ahead 3-2 in the series. The assumption here is that Dodgers will even things back up with Kershaw on the mound, but I don't think that's going to be the case. Chicago has all the momentum and unlike that first game against Kershaw, they at least now have a better idea of what to expect. That was the first time the Cubs had faced Kershaw since August of last year. I also don't think one start changes things for Kershaw and his postseason struggles. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Chicago found a way to get to him early and rattle in his confidence. Let's also not forget they have the likely Cy Young winner on the mound in Kyle Hendricks, who has a 1.41 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in 16 home starts this season. Chicago's bullpen is also fresh after Lester gave them 7 strong on Thursday. It's time to put the curse to rest.
Joseph D'Amico
Utah +7
UCLA was a pre-season favorite by many to take the South. But are now dwelling next to last, having lost three of four in Conference play, and possessing and overall record of 3-4. Turnovers, injuries, and an inability to run the ball has crushed the Bruins. They rank 126th nationally, rushing for a mere, 91.1 yards per game. They have decimated bettors, covering just two games in 2016 and going back to last season, are on a 2-7 against the spread run. Utah is tied with Colorado atop the Pac 12 South, and now with the return of running back, Joe Williams (179 yards rushing and 1 TD and his return last week),their offense is starting to roll. Defensively, they own the # 17 stop-unit in the country, holding opponents to just, 18.3 points per game. The Road Team is 4-0 against the spread the last four meetings in the series.
Chase Diamond
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -17½
Big time game for both teams as the 6-0 Texas A&M take on the 7-0 Alabama. Boy take a look at this spread here that should tell you all you need to know about how good the Tide are this year. Texas A&M has had two week to prepare for Alabama but I think it's pretty clear who Vegas wants you on in this game. 61% are backing the road team here and this is the definition of a public trap game as they are seeing a 6-0 team getting a ton of points and jumping all over it but not us. Nick Saban does not like the Aggies and will not take the foot off the gas. I see a big blowout here.
Scott Rickenbach
UTEP vs. Texas-San Antonio
Play: UTEP +10
This is not one of my actual star rated releases; this is an opinion play for Saturday's CFB. However, I certainly do like this situation quite a lot. Here are the details: The Roadrunners are simply over-valued in this spot. Even though they have won back to back games, UTSA has been outgained in all 5 of their games against FBS foes this season! Put in another way, UTSA has been fortunate! They were lucky to sneak by Rice last week in their non-covering win over the Owls. Now the Runners face another desperate and hungry foe as 1-5 UTEP comes to town. The Miners have lost 5 straight games but they are off of their bye week and that helped them to heal up both physically and mentally. QB Ryan Metz will be back after missing the Miners last game and leading rusher Aaron Jones is also feeling much better as his high ankle sprain has had extra time to heal up. The road team is a PERFECT 3-0 both SU and ATS in the series between these teams and an outright upset would not surprise. The Roadrunners almost got upset by Rice last week and they now face another team that is desperate for a victory this week. UTSA is over-rated right now because they've had some wins and some covers while consistently losing the yardage battles. That said, they shouldn't be a double digit favorite in this spot and yet they are. That means it is time to step in. UTSA is only 3-9 ATS as a favorite. Also, the Runners are on an 0-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 49 points. The Miners are on a 7-2 ATS run when off of a loss in conference action. UTEP is also 4-0 ATS when off of a SU loss as a favorite and playing with rest. The Miners lost 25 to 6 in El Paso last season and it is now payback time at the Alamodome in San Antonio.
Harry Bondi
VIRGINIA +11 over North Carolina
We had an outright underdog winner last night with Temple (+7) over South Florida, 46-30, and today we come back with another big dog that has a chance to pull off the upset. Coming off a huge upset win over Miami last week, the Tar Heels are primed for a letdown here on the road, so we’ll grab the big number with a Virginia team that, despite a loss and non-cover to Pittsburgh last week, has a 17-6 ATS record in its last 23 games when catching points. What’s more, dating back to his days at BYU, Cavs Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall is 24-11 ATS as a dog of more than a field goal. Not only is NC in a really bad spot here, but this is also a role they have not enjoyed, as they have failed to cover their last six chances as a road chalk of more than 7, and they have covered just three of the last 12 meetings in this series on this field.
David Banks
Ohio St vs. Penn St
Pick: Ohio St -19.5
It’s a White-Out in Happy Valley as the Nittany Lions of Penn State welcome the nation’s second-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday night. Ohio State narrowly escaped its first real test of the season beating eighth-ranked Wisconsin last week 30-23 in overtime. Now, head coach Urban Meyer and company look to extend the nation’s longest road winning streak to 21 games.
It will take Penn State’s best effort of the season and probably a little luck to pull off an upset of this size. The Buckeyes are loaded with talent. They are one of the nation’s best offenses – 4th in scoring, 4th in rushing – and one of the country’s best defenses – 3rd in scoring defense. The Nittany Lions will be hard pressed to slow down QB J.T. Barrett (1,641 total yards, 22 total touchdowns) and RB Mike Weber, who leads Ohio State with 612 yards rushing and four scores. Curtis Samuel, a hybrid wide receiver/running back leads the team in receiving with 29 catches for 403 yards and is the team’s second-leading rusher with 456 yards.
Penn State (4-2) was blown out by Michigan (49-10) and lost by three to in-state rival Pittsburgh. The Nittany Lions do not have a signature win this season and beating Ohio State would definitely qualify. In fact, a win over the Buckeyes would be the biggest of head coach James Franklin’s young career in Happy Valley. Beaver Stadium is a very hostile environment which could be a factor against an inexperienced Buckeyes’ squad. Penn State has not done well in White-Out games going just 1-4 with two of those losses coming to Ohio State.
Bob Balfe
Michigan State -3
Last week Perry Hills was a game time decision and was kept out so the injury must be pretty bad and it’s only been 7 days so he won’t be 100 percent anyway at quarterback for Maryland. The Terps were rocked last week by Minnesota. Michigan State might indeed be struggling, but they have the talent to beat programs like this and this might be the punching bag they need with Maryland themselves struggling to run the ball. Michigan State is too well coached to drop 5 games in a row.
Dodgers/Cubs Under 6.5
Both pitchers dominated a few nights ago in a 1-0 pitchers duel. What has changed? These guys are both locked in and are pretty much looking as well as one can deep in these playoffs. Look for another low scoring game tonight. Is this the night the Cubs get back to the world series?