Chip Chirimbes
Oklahoma at Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech +14.5
Interesting storyline here as Oklahoma start quarterback Baker Mayfield will return to Lubbock to play for the first time since transferring for Texas Tech to Oklahoma. The Sooners opened the season with the toughest schedule in the nation losing to both Houston and Ohio State. The Red Raiders were held to 17 points at home last week by West Virginia as they were looking ahead to this encounter and it snapped a NCAA record nine straight home game scoring at least 50 points. Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury said after Saturday's defeat 'that is the worst I've ever seen at Texas Tech.' They atone here.
Dr Bob
Eastern Mich @ Western Mich
Strong Opinion – Eastern Michigan (+23½) 17 WESTERN MICHIGAN 34
Western Michigan is unbeaten and the Broncos have some incentive to run up the score if they can to get the attention of the playoff committee. However, Eastern Michigan is not Eastern Michigan anymore. The Eagles have been perennially among the worst few FBS teams in the nation for most of the past decade but that has changed under third-year coach Chris Creighton, who has a veteran lineup of his recruits playing his style of football – and the results are promising. Eastern Michigan won just 3 games total in Creighton’s first two seasons while he played his youth, but the Eagles are already 5-2 this season and they’ve covered the spread in all but one game (at Missouri).
Eastern Michigan is now solid defensively, allowing 5.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense, and the Eagles are only 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 6.4 yppl). Western Michigan is a good team and the Broncos’ average margin of victory against six FBS opponents is +23.0 points. Their opponents rate about the same as Eastern Michigan, which is why the spread is where it is. However, Western Michigan is outplaying their stats because they have averaged a +2.0 in turnover margin in those 6 games (1 turnover to 13 for their opponents), which is a metric that will not continue to be in their favor nearly as much as it has been. My math model projects a +0.63 turnover margin for Western Michigan in this game and the difference between a randomly high past turnover margin and the Broncos’ projected turnover margin is why there is value on the side of the Eagles in this game.
If Western Michigan is +2 in turnovers then this spread is about right, but that’s not likely, and I’ll consider the Eagles a Strong Opinion at +23 points or more and I’d take Eastern Michigan as a 1-Star Best Bet at +24 points or more.
TCU @ West Virginia
Strong Opinion – WEST VIRGINIA (-6 ) 41 TCU 30
West Virginia answered their critics with a 48-17 win at Texas Tech last week. Scoring 48 points on Tech proved very little but holding the ‘Air Raid’ attack to just 5.0 yards per play and 17 points is a major accomplishment and is certainly noteworthy. West Virginia’s defense has yielded only 19.4 points per game and 5.2 yards per play despite facing a schedule of teams that would average 32 points and 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team. That unit is just 0.1 yppl worse than a good TCU offense that is 1.0 yppl better than average against FBS competition (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team).
The mismatch in this game is when West Virginia has the ball, as the Mountaineers have averaged 538 yards per game and rate at 1.2 yppl better than average (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) while TCU’s defense is just 0.2 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl), which excludes their horrible defensive performance in a 59-41 week 1 win over FCS team South Dakota State. If you included that game then TCU’s defense is worse than average.
The line indicates that the odds makers consider West Virginia to be the better team but the Mounties should be favored by even more points. I’ll consider West Virginia a Strong Opinion at -6 ½ points or less.
Purdue @ Nebraska
NEBRASKA (-24) 40 Purdue 16
Purdue has been so bad in recent weeks that their coach got fired. It’s tough to gauge how a mid-season coaching change will affect a team so I’ll just wait to see how the Boilermakers respond. My math model favors Nebraska by 23 points but the Cornhuskers have revenge for a loss to Purdue last season and that could add a bit of motivation. I’ll pass on the side but my model does favor the Under (61.5).
Wisconsin @ Iowa
Wisconsin (-4) 26 IOWA 17
This game basically boils down to if Wisconsin is going to suffer a letdown or not following last week’s devastating overtime loss to #2 Ohio State. I have some situations that suggest a letdown is imminent, as Wisconsin applies to a negative 50-122-3 ATS situation that plays against teams coming off a close loss as a big underdog.
However, if Wisconsin plays their normal game (and Iowa does as well), then the Badgers should win this game by a touchdown or more. Iowa is average at best from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.1 yppl better than average offensively (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) and the Hawkeyes have been 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense so far this season (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average team).
Being mediocre is not going to cut it against Wisconsin if the Badgers are emotionally ready to play, as Wisky is 0.3 yppl better than average offensively (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.1 yppl to an average team) and a very strong 1.2 yppl better than average defensively – surrendering only 15.2 points per game and 5.1 yppl to a schedule full of good offensive teams that would average 33.8 points and 6.3 yppl against an average stop unit.
Wisconsin should dominate the line of scrimmage and Iowa’s very good special teams won’t be enough to keep them within a touchdown – unless the Badgers are still focused on last week’s heartbreaking loss.
North Carolina @ Virginia
North Carolina (-11) 43 VIRGINIA 32
My math model favors North Carolina by 14 points in this game but the Tarheels apply to a negative 14-67-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation based on last week’s upset win at Miami. I’ll pass on the side but I do think the total is low due to the stats from their bad weather game against Virginia Tech being incorporated into the line. I deleted those stats from my model, which is perhaps why my model projects a higher scoring game.
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech
Oklahoma (-14) 52 TEXAS TECH 38
Oklahoma’s offense is back to the level it was the second half of last season, as the Sooners are averaging close to 8 yards per with regularity and have averaged 7.5 yppl this season with Baker Mayfield in the game (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. Texas Tech has one of the worst defensive units in the nation and the Red Raiders have allowed 8.4 yards per play twice this season already (Louisiana Tech and West Virginia) and are projected to give up 8.8 yppl to Oklahoma’s starters in this game.
Texas Tech should still be fairly competitive, as the Red Raiders have one of the best offensive teams in the land (1.6 yppl better than average) and Oklahoma is just barely better than average in pass defense. There should be plenty of scoring but I am not inclined to pick a side given that this game is priced fairly (my math favors Oklahoma by 13.7 points).
Houston @ SMU
Houston (-21) 38 SMU 17
The math favors Houston by 21 points but there is some value in the under (62.5 or 63 points). Houston’s offense is not as good as you’d think it is, as the Cougars have been just 0.4 yards per play better than average with Greg Ward III in the game (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) while SMU’s defense is surprisingly only 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). Houston is actually just as good defensively (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl) as they are only offense and SMU’s offense is 0.8 yppl worse than average. The tempo is higher than normal by about 12 plays but the math does not justify a total over 60 points. In fact, I get 55 points scored in this game.
Oregon St. @ Washington
WASHINGTON (-36½) 40 Oregon State 9
Washington’s starters will dominate an Oregon State team down to their 3rd string quarterback (he really can’t be much worse than the other two, can he?) but the Huskies’ backup defense has given up some late scores this season and Oregon State’s pass defense is very good (5.2 yards per pass play allowed to FBS quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.6 yppp against an average defensive team). The Beavers are horrible against the run but if Washington decides to run the ball a lot more to take advantage of that weakness then the game is shortened by not having the clock stopped as often by incomplete passes. I think it’s too many points.
Mississippi @ LSU
LSU (-7½) 38 Mississippi 29
Ole’ Miss is still a very good team despite their 3-3 record but the fact that the Rebels do not have a good run defense this season is why I’m lean against them. LSU is an offense that struggles against good teams that can stop the run. We saw that year a few times (averaged just 16 points in a 3 game losing streak against Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole’ Miss) and again this season against Wisconsin (14 points), Miss State (23 points) and Auburn (13 points). Mississippi has allowed 238 rushing yards per game at 5.7 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yprp against an average team) and that is not good enough to slow down an LSU attack that has averaged 7.0 yprp this season against teams that are collectively 0.4 yprp better than the Rebels defending the run.
I’d like LSU even more if not for Chad Kelly’s habit of playing well against really good defensive teams, as he did once again last month against Alabama with over 400 passing yards at 9.4 yards per pass play. LSU has a very good defense but Kelly has proven many times that he can have success throwing the ball against good defensive teams. I’ll still lean with LSU but I think the over may be the way to go if you want to wager on this game.
Texas A&M @ Alabama
ALABAMA (-18) 45 Texas A&M 24
Alabama is a huge favorite here and my math model agrees that the line should be close to 3 touchdowns, but facing a team with a quarterback that has the rushing skills of Trevor Knight is historically troubling for the Tide. Knight has 529 yards on just 61 runs this season, not including sacks, and he has the ability to not only avoid Alabama’s pass rush but he also adds an element of the unknown that Nick Saban and his defensive staff can’t prepare for.
Alabama has had some history of trouble with running quarterbacks and the read-option. Last year’s loss was to Ole’ Miss and while that defeat was a bit of a fluke (-5 in turnovers and lost by just 6 points) the Rebels were able to average 5.9 yards per play, the most of any team against Alabama all season until Clemson and their running quarterback Deshaun Watson gained 552 yards at 6.5 yppl against the Tide in the National Championship game. Mississippi was smart enough to run more read-option plays than they normally do, which kept one of the safeties closer to the line of scrimmage and allowed quarterback Chad Kelly to connect on some throws down the field. Kelly is not an elite runner, but he’s a good enough runner (646 rushing yards last season and 286 this season so far) to force the Tide defense to respect the possibility that he might run. Kelly ran the ball 11 times against Alabama earlier this season and the threat of that run allowed him to connect on some big pass plays again, as Ole’ Miss had 525 total yards at 7.2 yppl in a 43-48 loss.
The 35-42 playoff loss to Ohio State in the 2014 season featured a lot of read-option that Alabama could not stop (302 rushing yards for the Buckeyes at 7.7 yards per rushing play). In 2013 it was Auburn’s read-option attack with QB Nick Marshall that derailed Alabama’s season, as the Tigers ran for 321 yards at 6.6 yprp in their upset of the Tide. The only loss in Alabama’s 2012 season was to Texas A&M, which featured running quarterback Johnny Manziel, who ran for 107 yards at 7.6 yprp and was able to find open receivers down the field against a defense that had an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage to help defend the read-option. In 2010 it was Auburn’s read-option attack with Cam Newton at the controls that upset Alabama on their way to a national championship. I could go back further but you get the picture. Bama did dominate Tennessee and running quarterback Joshua Dobbs last week, but Dobbs only ran the ball 4 times. You can be sure that Trevor Knight is going to run the ball a lot and Texas A&M has a history of success against Alabama’s defense when they have a running quarterback.
Alabama’s defense will dominate a pro-style attack like USC, but teams that run the read-option and have a quarterback that can scramble away from pressure are the types of attacks that Alabama can struggle against. The Tide also don’t seem to be comfortable against high scoring teams, which has shown up in an interesting team trend that a fellow handicapper shared with me. In the Nick Saban era (since 2008), Alabama is 66-47-1 ATS but the Tide are just 12-26-1 ATS when the over/under total is greater than 52 points (1-2-1 ATS this season).
Despite all of that, I would still rather side with Alabama in this game, as my math model has their offense racking up 599 total yards at 7.4 yards per play and Knight isn’t likely to have much success throwing the ball (just 4.9 yards per pass play projected). If Alabama continues their trend of struggling against running quarterbacks then the over should work.
SPORTS WAGERS
KANSAS ST +105 over Texas
Charlie Strong versus Bill Snyder. That matchup alone makes the Wildcats worthy of a bet here but it goes even deeper than that. Texas earned a win over a weak Iowa State team last week (27-6) and would probably have an interim coach this week if it hadn't. The Longhorns have been a circus act all season long with nothing but drama and distractions, which makes focusing 100% on football extremely difficult. Charlie Strong has won just 14 of his first 31 games at a place with an all-time winning percentage better than 71% and he has already dismissed or reassigned all of his original assistants halfway through his third season. Strong is under immense pressure to deliver but the local media and fans are calling for his head every single week. Texas is 3-3 straight up but the wins have come over teams with a combined 4-16 record. The schedule now gets much tougher so now would the right time to start fading these ‘Horns.
Kansas State lost 38-17 to Oklahoma last week as a 10-point dog. The Wildcats cannot be a 10-point dog at Oklahoma and then a dog at home against Texas. The Wildcats were either grossly overvalued last week or undervalued this week. Pick one. We’ll definitely pick the latter. Teams don’t always play their best when expected to and K-State had difficulty last week. However, the Wildcats found some offensive answers against Texas Tech the week prior and the Big 12's top defense survived a Heisman-caliber first-half onslaught from Patrick Mahomes, shutting the Red Raiders down for most of the second stanza. Bill Snyder will try to coax some production out of his green offense again but at the end of the day, of the four units that will be on the field here, K-State’s defense is by far the best unit that will be out there. K-State outright.
W. KENTUCKY -13½ over Old Dominion
Old Dominion has been a cute success story at 4-2, but let’s really break that down. They have wins over Hampton, UTSA, Charlotte, and Massachusetts. Those teams are a combined 9-17 on the season. The three FBS wins are over the #101, #124, and #118 ranked teams according to the S&P+ rankings. When they have faced off versus top 40 S&P+ programs, they have been outscored 80-29. WKU is only #59 in those rankings, but are a bigger test than either Appalachian State or North Carolina State. The Monarchs are getting way too much credit here and absolutely not enough points. Sell high.
WKU is much better than their 4-3 record suggests. They played Alabama much closer than the final score suggests and blew the games versus both Vanderbilt and Louisiana Tech. They could easily be 6-1 and getting votes in the top 25 if a few plays went differently. Western Kentucky hasn't covered a game since the opener so anyone that has backed them over the past six weeks has ripped up their ticket. Now we get to step in and buy low. The Hilltoppers are finding their footing after losing some key players to graduation at the end of last year. WKU QB Mike White ranks seventh nationally with 2,098 passing yards, ninth with a passing efficiency rating of 164.3 and 12th with 16 TD passes. Both receivers Taywan Taylor and Nicholas Norris have been outstanding with a combined 1500+ yards and 13 touchdowns, higher totals than ODU quarterback David Robertson has for the season. If the ‘Toppers are stopped in the passing game (very unlikely) they can always fall back to the run game which features one of the best G5 running backs in senior Anthony Wales. He has been electric since coming back from an early season injury. WKU is playing great football without the wins. They are about to start paying off at the window and now would be the right time to put the hammer down
PENN ST +20 -over Ohio State
Ohio State has looked every bit deserving of the #2 ranking they own this season so far. The Buckeyes have trampled virtually every team they have come across and when they were tested by top-10 ranked Wisconsin, the Buckeyes did not hit the panic switch when they trailed. Instead, they battled back and won the game in overtime. Characterized by their notorious poise and moxie they exude in pressure situations, the Buckeyes once again did what they had to when they were under the gun. Generally, high-profile games of this nature generate a reaction the following week if something significant occurs in the featured match. From the Ohio State-Wisconsin clash, the general consensus is that Ohio State is every bit as a good as their ranking suggests and secondly, Wisconsin may be better than their rating indicates. Now, Ohio State has to travel to a notoriously hostile environment that plays home to a football team that has been battle-tested and snake-bitten in the early part of this season.
Penn State has an affinity for being a menace at Happy Valley especially when they get a game under the lights where they can white out a hated rival. The last time Ohio State came to town, they entered in almost identical fashion, spotting big points to the home hosts who were primed for an upset bid. Penn State took Ohio State to overtime but they led by as much as 17 before the Buckeyes would come roaring back. Sure, Ohio State may have blown the doors off of Penn State at home last year and yes they have won their last five against the Nittany Lions overall but PSU is a far better 4-2 team than the record may or may not suggest. One of Penn State’s losses this year came against #4 Michigan when the Nittany Lions were extremely short-handed, as 14 starters were injured for that game. The only other loss Penn State suffered was a three-point defeat at Pittsburgh where the Nittany Lions were able to rally back and make a game of the contest after Pitt jumped out to a commanding lead.
At home this season, Penn State is undefeated and they have taken down teams like Temple and Maryland along the way. Maryland at one point entered as a team forecasted as a potential culprit ready to pull off a win at Happy Valley. Penn State had other ideas and put the wood to the Terrapins in a blowout victory. The market and analysts alike have little faith in Penn State keeping this one manageable but Ohio State had to battle hard to pick up the W last week and more often than not the match-up that follows often fosters some attrition. The “White Out” game is one of the greatest spectacles in sports. It is so difficult for an opponent to go into Happy Valley in this annual event and blow out the Lions. Now OSU is being asked to win by nearly three converted TD’s but no matter how you break it down, we will once again side with the massively inflated points here.
The Real Animal
Texas/Kansas St Over 54
The last four Texas totals have been 69, 72, 67 ½, and 80 points. How can their total this week drop more than a touchdown? The last two weeks Kansas State has allowed 38 points twice and 901 passing yards! Texas has played three games outside of Austin this year and has allowed 50, 49, and 45 points. Longhorn QB Shane Buechele has a 13-5 ratio and has five touchdown passes in his last two games. K-State is 8-0 ‘OVER’ at home after two straight games allowing 450 or more total yards. K-State QB Jesse Ertz has been upgraded to probable despite a shoulder injury suffered in his last game. He left just after halftime versus Oklahoma. The Wildcats are averaging 47.3 points per game at home. Texas has played four games this year resulting in 80 or more points. This is dirt cheap!
Bruce Marshall
LA Monroe +17
Bob Davie's pesky run-based New Mexico Pistol offense is still keeping foes off balance and damaging ill-equipped opponents, already piling up 40+ points on three different occasions this season. But let's just say that our updated "to do" list does not include laying double-digits with the Lobos, whose games often resemble the sprint car races at nearby Sandia Speedway, and whose "D" has allowed 40 or more in UNM's last two SU wins this season! So, as long as Albuquerque altitude not a problem, there should be plenty of chances for new ULM HC Matt Viator (off of a successful run at FCS McNeese State) and his well-balanced Warhawk offense (184 ypg rushing, 231 ypg passing) to trade points. Davie's disappearing defense will have its hands full with emerging ULM attack that boasted two 100-yard rushers and unleashed playmaking RS frosh QB Will Collins in Texas State win last week.
Brad Wilton
My comp play release for Saturday is the Nebraska Cornhuskers to hammer the Purdue Boilermakers.
The Darrell Hazell era in West Lafayette has come to an end, as Purdue's middling 3-3 straight up mark just wasn't good enough for the Boiler powers that be.
Hazell's team did pull a 55-45 shocker last season at home over Nebraska, and you can rest assured Huskers coach Mike Riley need not remind his undefeated team of that Halloween meeting a season ago.
Nebraska has won all 6 games played this season, and they are 4-1-1 against the spread in those 6 wins. Road games at Ohio State and Wisconsin are next on the schedule for the host Cornhuskers, so they had better take advantage of a Purdue team that is nursing injuries to a defense that is now allowing 43 points per game their last 3 times out, and over 7 yards per carry on the ground too!
Big price to lay in Lincoln, but lay away you must.
Nebraska by 35 points!
4* NEBRASKA
Brad Wilton
Idaho heads all the way east fresh off 2 wins in a row, but I am not so sure that this meeting with Appalachian State is going to yield anything but a big blowout on Mountaineers turf.
Appalachian State has had a few extra days of preparation as they were last on the field in their Thursday night road blanking of UL Lafayette, 24-0 on the 12th.
The Mountaineers have allowed just 3 total points in their last pair of wins, so the high-flying Vandals will be hard-pressed to continue their recent high-scoring ways (89 points in their last pair of wins!) at Kidd Brewer Stadium.
This is the third straight season these teams will be meeting, last year the Mountaineers winning 47-20 as the -20 1/2 road chalk. The season before in Boone, North Carolina the Mounties took it 45-28 with the Vandals getting a last minute "comp" TD to push the closing price of -17.
Idaho is improved, but Appalachian State is a complete team.
Lay it.
2* APPALACHIAN STATE
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Saturday is going to be on Appalachian State against Idaho.
This is a great spot for Appalachian State, as it catches an Idaho team with a sputtering offense and struggling defense. Idaho’s inability to consistently make stops will help the Mountaineer attack, which needs a break and should be able to open things up.
But forget about the offense, let's talk about the Mountaineer defense, which will shut down quarterback Matt Linehan and running back Aaron Duckworth. By pressuring the line and getting to Duckworth, we're going to see Idaho's shifty signal-caller throw into tight coverage one too many times, and force mistakes.
Really, since tough outings against Miami and Akron, this App State defense has been stalwart and may just pitch a shutout in this one.
I'll lay the three TDs and roll with the home chalk
3* APPALACHIAN STATE
Chris Jordan
I spoke to someone in Albuqueque this week, and neither of us can figure out why UL Monroe is making this trip this late in the season. Both playing out of conference, the Lobos have a chance to pick up a big win, and gain some momentum before heading back into Mountain West play.
I know the Lobos are one-dimensional offense, but they are very good in executing their singular dimension ground game. When it's clicking - it's unstoppable. And I don't trust Monroe's defense, especially with how long this trip was and the fact this is a non-conference foe.
That makes a difference when you're in the second half of the season.
On the other side of the ball, the Lobos get the nod with the better defense. That stop unit will be fired up to get a chance to climb above .500 for the first time since the start of September. Heck, the Lobos may be thinking about becoming bowl eligible.
Monroe has far too many holes in defense, and big plays will help us cover this game.
3* NEW MEXICO
Bob Valentino
On paper, there is very little intrigue with this game, as the Washington Huskies should absolutely trounce the Oregon State Beavers. The game is in Seattle, and the Huskies are looking to make moves in the College Football Playoff Poll.
Washington has no choice but to win games like this by huge margins, driving that power rating up as high as possible, in order to ascend in the rankings.
Remember the way the Huskies gobbled up Rutgers in the season-opener, winning 48-13 at home? Or the next week, when it was 59-14 over Idaho? How about the 41-3 win over Portland State. Yeah, I'm comparing the Beavers to the likes of Idaho and Portland State. This is going to get ugly.
The only thing you may have to worry about is how soon Washington's reserves substitute in, and how late Oregon State's starters keep playing. And that's where the question of the total comes in. Of course my premium play is on this same game - the Over/Under - and you can get that inside here. But as for the side, take Washington.
3* WASHINGTON
Brett Atkins
Taking a look at a comp play winner for this Saturday, and my call is to lay it with Alabama in their big SEC West showdown with visiting Texas A&M.
Yes, the Aggies survived in OT two weeks ago at home against Tennessee, but that was the same UT team that Alabama drilled, 49-10 last week in Knoxville.
Alabama has won the last 3 series meetings versus Texas A&M, and have covered the last pair of series meetings against the Aggies. The Tide is allowing just 15 points per game, and 35 of their last 40 victories have come by double-digits!
Texas A&M is only 3-6 against the spread their last 9 as the road underdog.
My eyeball test right now tells me the Crimson Tide are just not suffering any slip-up at this point in the season.
Roll Tide!
3* ALABAMA
Bruce Marshall
Ul - Monroe at New Mexico
Pick: Over
Spread has inflated way too much, perhaps upon the news of injury to Warhawk QB Garrett Smith. ULM, however, rolled on "O" last week vs. Texas State with RS frosh Will Carter, a true dual threat and emerging playmaker, so not sure that news is a negative at all. Plus a pair of 100-yard rusher vs. Bobcats. Matt Viator can also coach, witness success at Southland Conf. McNeese State, where his teams were always well-balanced as is current ULM, which is poisonous for the UNM "D" which cannot stop run or pass.
SPORTS WAGERS
Carolina +118 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. The Flyers had seven PP opportunities against the Ducks on Thursday night but only managed 22 shots on net the entire game. Philly is also the only team to lose to the Coyotes this year and they have also allowed 14 goals against in its past three games. The Flyers defense is a bit of a mess too. They have at least three d-men that are getting major minutes that would have a tough time cracking any NHL lineup and they don’t have the goaltending to compensate. Philly’s third best goaltender, Steve Mason and his .875 save percentage gets this start. After an underserving 4-2 win to open the year in Los Angeles, the Flyers have lost three straight.
Much of this market (and media) has no idea how deep and how good these ‘Canes are. Carolina has outshot three of its four opponents this season. They have had a three-goal lead in two games and a two-goal lead in one other. They have picked up points in three of four games but deserved to win all three. Carolina’s third line of Teuvo Teravainen, Elias Lindholm and Phillip Di Giuseppe is one of the best third lines in the game. The ‘Canes d-pairings of Ron Hainsey with Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin with Brett Pesce and Noah Hanifin with Klas Dahlbeck is among the best puck-moving groups in the league while giving up very little. Once again the ‘Canes are a top possession team. If Eddie Lack can continue to get his confidence back and improve, it’s going to make a world of difference for this team. Carolina is very unlikely to get out-played, out-shot or out-possessioned here, which means we are going with the best of it again.
Colorado +144 over FLORIDA
OT included. We’re not quite ready to jump ship on the Avs because the market has not adjusted to their great improvement. The Avs have played four top-10 teams already, which means they have played the toughest schedule in the NHL so far. They are 3-1 in those games with victories over Dallas, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. Colorado’s only defeat came at Washington when they were playing its third game in four days after an OT win against Pittsburgh the previous night. In its three victories, Colorado has outscored the opposition 14-8 but during 5-on-5 play, they have outscored the opposition 10-4. The Avs had one of the biggest turnovers in the off-season, as they rid themselves of eight players while picking up nine others in return. Patrick Wiercioch and Joe Colborne have been the key pickups, as both players are performing at a high level and the others have fit in too. It may also surprise you that after playing the offensive juggernauts that are Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay (Washington isn’t bad either), Colorado has allowed the fifth lowest high danger scoring chances in the league. The Avs take a step down in class tonight when facing this offense.
Florida’s leading scorers are Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Marchessault. Its two wins in four tries have come against Detroit and New Jersey with the latter occurring in OT. Three of Florida’s top scorers, Jonathan Huberdeau, Nick Bjugstad and Jussi Jokkinen are out of the lineup. Florida also embarks on a four-game trip after this one that starts with games in Pittsburgh and Toronto. Give us the Avalanche in a favorable spot again and we’ll bite. Give us the Avs plus a price in their easiest game of the year and we’ll also bite. Give us the Avs with their new attitude and new found confidence and it makes this one an easy choice for us.
Nelly
TCU + over West Virginia
Undefeated West Virginia should start to receive some attention this week after a dominant road win at Texas Tech last week. The Mountaineers lost by 30 in this matchup last season with TCU posting over 600 yards but the other three meetings since these schools joined the Big XII were extremely close. On a yards per play basis these teams look fairly similar with only a minor edge on defense for the Mountaineers but in run defense TCU has been very effective despite the Frogs sitting as a huge disappointment with two losses already this season. TCU's losses came in close games vs. elite passing teams and the narrow escape vs. Kansas was a clear letdown situation two weeks ago. This looks like a good opportunity for TCU to make its case still as a contender in the conference with a big line shift compared with last season and West Virginia's perfect start worthy of scrutiny. West Virginia had just about everything go right last week in a big road win over Texas Tech and the Mountaineers have a lousy recent track record in the home favorite role, going 24-34-2 ATS since 2007 while TCU is 9-2 ATS as a road underdog since 2011.