Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, October 28th, 2017

Doc's Sports

Air Force vs. Colorado St
Play: Under 68½

The Falcons are a run heavy team to say the least and thus the clock will be running most of the afternoon. That should set up a strong play with the under in this battle of Colorado teams. The Rams are coming off a game against New Mexico, a similar run heavy team and the total points in that game was 51 points and that is well below today’s posted number.

Jesse Schule

NC State vs. Notre Dame
Play: NC State +7½

After a blowout win over USC last Saturday, the Irish are now a huge favorite at home versus NC State. This is a huge let down spot for Notre Dame, and this isn't a great matchup. The Irish are a one-dimensional team that leans heavily on the run, and the Wolfpack have one of the most experienced, and most dominant defensive lines in the country. They come in well rested off a bye week, riding a six game win streak. Their resume includes wins at Florida State, at home to Louisville and Syracuse. These teams played last season, and the Irish were completely shut down in a 10-3 loss. The Wolfpack held Notre Dame to just 113 total yards, and 59 rushing yards on 38 attempts. I like NC State to win outright at South Bend.

Harry Bondi

UAB (+14) over Southern Miss

Southern Miss scored a miracle win and cover for its followers last week when it came back from an 11-point deficit with 87 seconds left in its game at Louisiana Tech to tie it up and eventually win in overtime. That misleading final gives us some value on UAB, which is 5-2 SU this year, but could easily be 7-0 since its two losses came by a combined four points! Blazers have covered four of their last five as an underdog and get the cash again here.

Doc's Sports

Arizona (+135) over New Jersey

The Arizona Coyotes have yet to earn a win this season (as of Wednesday), but I think they have a good shot of getting one in New Jersey on Saturday night. Yes, the Devils are off to a great start, but this roster isn't any better than last year's edition that finished dead last in the Eastern Conference. They'll come back to earth. The Coyotes made some really nice moves in the off-season to bolster the defense, including new goalie Antti Raanta from the Rangers. It always takes a little bit of time to form some chemistry with new guys, and Arizona has looked better in their last couple of games. We're going to buy low on the Coyotes as I think they're a lot better than people think.

Jason Sharpe

North Carolina State +7.5 over Notre Dame

These two teams come into this game a combined 12-2 overall on the season. Lots to like here in this spot for North Carolina State as they go into this battle off a bye last weekend and with two weeks to prepare for this contest. The Wolfpack have won 6 straight games, and their lone loss this year was against South Carolina in a game that they should have won as they dominated the contest at the line of scrimmage with 258 yards more of offense than the Gamecocks. Notre Dame comes in off an emotional win last week over rival USC. The Irish have been solid this season, but they now appear to be a bit overvalued in the betting markets as the hype surrounding them has picked up a lot of steam over the past week. The Wolfpack won't be intimidated in this one, either, considering they've already upset Florida State and Louisville this year as they were underdogs in both games and they also beat Notre Dame last season. Take North Carolina State plus the points here.

Tony George

Iowa State (+7) over TCU

Well if you do not think Iowa State is for real, the win over Oklahoma on the road, and then a huge blowout win as a seven-point dog last week at Texas Tech should raise your eyebrows. Cyclone QB Kempt, who was a 3 rd-string backup headed into the Oklahoma game, has come out of nowhere, and thrown 7 TD passes and a 70% completion rate and ran the offense to perfection, and he has weapons all around him, including one of the top WRs in the Big 12 and a solid RB as well. Yes TCU is the better team, but Iowa State at home in Ames is a total snake pit to travel to and the locals will be jacked up. Last week TCU had Kansas and the week before that they had Kansas State, who had to start a frosh QB against them; this test will be much stiffer. Two good coaches going at it here and TCU having Texas on deck and Oklahoma the week after that could catch them looking ahead, and if you discount ISU they will not only cover the spread but beat you straight up as they are playing with high confidence, in some chilly weather, in a tough place to get a win at this Saturday. This is a Super Bowl-type game for Iowa State.

Alan Harris

Kansas State / Kansas Over 57

Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Kansas State Wildcats travel to take on their instate rival, the Kansas Jayhawks at KU Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, KS, on Saturday afternoon. The Wildcats have posted a 6-1 record to the over in their last seven road games where they faced a team with a losing record at home and they have gone an excellent 9-4 to the over in their last thirteen games overall going back to the end of the 2016 season. The Jayhawks have been an over team as well in the spot the are in here on Saturday as they have gone up and over the total in four straight home games and they are an impressive 5-2 to the over in their last seven games following a game where they gave up 40 points or more. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone 6-1 to the over in their last seven head-to-head meetings and 7-1 to the over in their last eight games at Memorial Stadium, and that's where we'll have our play as we expect both offensive units to get it going a bit in Lawrence on Saturday afternoon.

Jack Brayman

My free play is a lookahead to Saturday, as I like the Mountain West battle in Laramie, where the Wyoming Cowboys host the New Mexico Lobos.

I think more than anything with this game that stood out to me was why in the hell Wyoming opened a 3-point favorite, and was moved to a 2-point underdog. Who is betting the Lobos, and why?

The Lobos have said they're plan to continue their two-QB system, which is nothing special. They have some injuries, like every team this time of year, and so does Wyoming. But nothing significant. And there is nothing on New Mexico's side to make them look like a better team right now, than they were a couple days ago.

The reason I'm giving you this early is because it is very possible we see this line come back. And as long as the oddsmakers saw something to make Wyoming a 3-point favorite on Sunday, I'll side with the experts.

5* WYOMING

Eric Schroeder

My comp winner is on the Utah State Aggies plus the points against the Boise State Broncos. Far too many points to give a team that is used to stepping up at home. The Aggies tuned up for this one with a blowout win in Las Vegas last week.

And I'm not saying the UNLV Rebels are like the Broncos, or vice versa, but I can tell you this much, Boise State's offense is lacking fire power like it used to. So if the Broncos plan on clamping down on defense, the Aggies will do the same in shutting down the 111th total offense in the nation.

Boise State only scores 28.3 points per game. That's not a lot considering this used to be one of the most high-powered offenses in the country. With the 89th rushing game and 92nd passing game, I don't see the Broncos going into Logan and challenging a rugged Utah State team.

I'll play the home pup.

1* UTAH STATE

Andrew Lange

Air Force at Colorado State
Play: Colorado State -10.5

There aren't a lot of instances where during a season a team is asked to play four road games in fives weeks but that's what Air Force is tasked with as it heads to Ft. Collins to face Colorado State. And not only have the Falcons spent the better part of the last month playing on the road, nearly every contest was an absolute barnburner. Back in Week 6, Air Force fell behind 31-10 at rival Navy only to take the lead, 45-41 late in the fourth. The Midshipmen scored the game winning touchdown with 15 seconds remaining. The following week, in an obvious letdown spot, Air Force trailed UNLV 27-0 only to rally back for an improbable 34-30 win. And last week, the Falcons kicked a game winning field goal with no time on the clock in a high scoring 45-42 win over Nevada. The travel, the emotion, the physical toll...it's bound to catch up with this squad at some point.

Colorado State returns home after slipping past New Mexico 27-24 last week. The Rams are 4-0 in conference play and like Air Force have been challenged with four of their last five on the highway; though were able to score a bye week after a pointspread covering loss at Alabama. While Air Force and New Mexico aren't identical, I think it helps the Rams that Saturday marks the second straight game in which they'll be tasked with stopping some form of the option. Note that last season, after losing at Air Force, the Rams fired back the following week against New Mexico, 49-31. CSU allowed 485 yards on the ground to the Falcons but only 285 to the Lobos. Also note that through four games, Colorado State owns a solid +1.20 ypp advantage vs. MWC foes. Air Force is an alarming -2.32 ypp. Think the spot and price is favorable for the home side in this matchup.

Executive Sports

TCU at Iowa St
Play: TCU -6

Play On Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TCU) off 3 or more consecutive unders, with a good first half defense ( - 8 or less ) points per game. (25-2, 93% over the last 10 seasons.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1).

DAVE COKIN

ARKANSAS ST at NEW MEXICO ST
PLAY: NEW MEXICO ST +3

Thursday saw some major line movement on the game between Arkansas State and New Mexico State. The Aggies injury list shrunk in substantial fashion with five players upgraded, including two of their best performers. So it looks as though the bye week enjoyed by New Mexico State came at just the right time.

That’s big news as this is a huge game for the Aggies. They’re heading to the land of the FBS independents next season as the Sun Belt is biding farewell to both New Mexico State and Idaho. Make no mistake, the Aggies really want to get to a bowl game this season. New Mexico State’s last bowl appearance was in 1960! And the reality is that with no conference tie-in after this season, it’s going to be very tough for the Aggies to find their way to a post-season event moving forward.

This is a senior-laden New Mexico State entry and I absolutely believe everyone associated with the program is looking at this game as The Game. A win over Arkansas State would get the Aggies to 4-4 and give them a very good chance at becoming bowl eligible. But a loss puts them in dire straits.

I think NMSU will score its share of points here. Larry Rose III is a dynamic offensive player, Jason Huntley has been a legit weapon any time he touches the ball and QB Tyler Rogers is pretty good as long as he’s not forcing the ball into traffic. Rogers needs to play his most intelligent game here.

The Red Wolves are again contenders for the SBC title. Justice Hansen is a really good QB at this level. Ark State will likely be without leading rusher Warren Wand for this game, but they have plenty of depth at RB so I don’t consider that to be critical.

The defenses will decide this game. The Red Wolves need to capitalize on the likelihood that Rogers will put some balls up for grabs. New Mexico State has been okay by SBS standards with their pass defense efficiency. The Aggies need to be tougher vs. the run though and that has not been their forte.

At +6 or thereabouts, I thought there was really good value on the home dog as I make this a potentially very tight game. Cut that number in half and it’s clearly a dicier proposition. But I know how serious the preparation has been by the Aggies for this game. They’ve delivered some very competitive efforts against higher level programs this season and I’m banking on them doing the same here and coming away with an upset win. I can’t recommend a full unit on the Aggies at what is now a beat up number, but I would still be taking whatever points are available with New Mexico State.

Alex Smart

Georgia Tech vs. Clemson
Play: Georgia Tech +14

Georgia Tech 4-2 is a team that is extremely close to having been undefeated. The Yellow Jackets lost a 42-41 double-overtime decision against Tennessee that they actually dominated in their season opener, then suffered a 25-24 loss at Miami on Oct. 14 on a 4th down play that went through the hands of two defenders. Needless to say they are a team that has to be respected. I know they now go against a cranky defending National championship team in Clemson off a stunning upset los vs Syracuse last time out, but if history repeats itself are not easily going to cover here as the Tigers are 0-3 ATS with rest, and have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 off a road fav loss and have only covered 1 of their L/9 as conference home chalk of 10 points or more. Meanwhile, GTECH HC Paul Johnson is 9-1 ATS in his career vs a team off a loss as fav, and is perfect 5-0 ATS if its against conference opposition .GEORGIA TECH is 7-0 ATS L/7 after playing 2 straight conference games. CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Georgia tech - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 29-5 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Scott Spreitzer

Nebraska vs. Purdue
Play: Purdue -4½

Arkansas State, Northern Illinois, and Ohio State. What do these teams have in common? We played all three against Nebraska on these pages and cashed all three times. The only question remaining during a dismal Husker season is who will be coaching the team in 2018? HC Mike Riley may be well-liked, but his coaching skills are lacking at this level. Purdue is also 3-4 SU, but there's a positive vibe in West Lafayette with HC Jeff Brohm making big strides in his first season at the helm. Purdue lost a tough one at Rutgers last week, losing 14-12, but the score hardly told the entire story. The Boilermakers out-gained the Scarlet Knights 474-217 and gained 25 first downs to just 8 for Rutgers. Unfortunately, they couldn't get the ball in the endzone and committed two turnovers. They'll find the endzone this week in our opinion, facing a Nebraska team that allows 31 ppg. And I never thought I'd say this about a Nebraska offense, but they can't run the football, ranked 98th in the nation. Look for Purdue to force QB Tanner Lee to carry the offense with his arm. Lee is not only completing just 55% of his passes, but he has thrown 10 INTs and just 13 TD passes. Nebraska struggled to a 27-14 win as a 24 point home favorite in last year's meeting. The Huskers led 17-14 in the fourth quarter. Nebraska lost 55-45 on this field two years ago. If they thought Purdue was a tough "out" under the direction of former HC Darrell Hazell, wait until they get a look at the Boilermakers under Jeff Brohm.