Jimmy Boyd
NC State vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -7
I don't see the Irish suffering any kind of letdown here against NC State at home on Saturday. Notre Dame knows that the win over USC means nothing if they don't take care of business agains the Wolfpack and it's not like NC State is going to sneak up on them. The Wolfpack have won 6 straight since that opening week loss to South Carolina and are now ranked 14th in the country. Not to mention they beat Notre Dame a year ago, which gives the head coach Chip Kelly the revenge card to play all week at practice.
I know NC State has a win at home over Louisville and victory at FSU on the resume, but neither of those teams are anywhere close to as good as what we expected coming into the season. Add in the loss at home to the Gamecocks and I think we have an overrated team here.
The reason a lot of people are giving them a chance in this game is everyone knows NC State's defensive line is one of the best in the country and the Irish's offense is built around the running game. The thing is, even if they slow down Notre Dame's running game, I still think the Irish find a way to points on the board at home.
The other big thing here is that Notre Dame defense is the real deal. The Irish haven't allowed a single team this season to score more than 20 points on them and they have now played USC, Michigan St and Georgia. I don't think NC State is going to buck that trend and in the end the Irish win here by double-digits.
Jeff Allen
Florida Int vs. Marshall
Play: Marshall -17
Marshall is just starting to hit on all cylinders and will be revenge motivated here against an FIU outfit that has a way to go on both sides of the ball and will particularly have problems scoring points against this years stifling Herd defense. Marshall is co-leader of CUSA until beaten and it won't happen here vs. traveling Panthers.
Teddy Davis
Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -7
I'm not very high on this South Carolina team as they have had a few misleading box scores in their favor. However, for this situation against Vanderbilt I think they are worth a look here.
Both teams are coming off their bye week, but Vanderbilt can't be feeling good about themselves losing 4 straight and not covering in each of those games. Meanwhile the Gamecocks have won back to back games and have covered 3 straight.
Vanderbilt during that 4 game stretch has been out gained over 1,000 yards, that's not the sign of a team that should be only a touch down underdog. South Carolina will become bowl eligible with a win here and think they do so in fashion.
Freddy Wills
Florida Int vs. Marshall
Play: Florida Int +17
Marshall has been a hot team and are 6-1 ATS, but they have covered 3 of their last 4 games by more than 2 TD’s against the spread. They are a sell high type of team that I’m looking to fade down the stretch. FIU, comes in off a bye and extra time to prepare most likely feeling disrespected in this spot still in contention for the division. While Marshall might be peaking ahead to their showdown with Florida Atlantic.
I do think Marshall wins this game, but they are laying a premium here with 17 points against a team off a bye. I have this number 12.5 FIU has played good defense this year while Marshall’s offense has not been very good with only 21 trips to the red zone and a 57% TD rate. They come in 94th in explosive plays and FIU ranks 25th in allowing explosive plays so I think this will be a close game.
It’s worth mentioning that Marshall has the nation’s best special teams unit. They have a punter that broke the college football record this year with a 92 yard punt. FIU not bad at 55th, but I would say that’s where the biggest advantage is for Marshall. In adjusted line play FIU ranks 88th on offense compared to Marshall who ranks 111th. Defensive line play Marshall Ranks 61st to FIU’s 54th.
I would not be shocked to see an upset. Marshall has 3 defensive guys who are questionable, and FIU off the bye very healthy getting no respect here.
Marc Lawrence
Utah vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon
Edges - Ducks: 5-0 ATS when 0-3 SUATS last three games and facing a foe off consecutive losses, including 3-0 SUATS at home… Utes: 1-6 ATS off consecutive losses when favored by 3 or more points… With both teams riding a 3-game losing skid, our money is on the host. We recommend a 1* play on Oregon.
Larry Ness
Arkansas St vs. New Mexico St
Play: New Mexico St +3
While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can in this one as I expect the hungry 3-4 New Mexico State Aggies to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.
Arkansas State is coming off a 47-3 annihilation of Louisiana Lafayette, while New Mexico State enters off hard-fought 35-27 road win over Georgia Southern in its last outing, keeping the team’s bowl bid hopes alive with just a handful of games remaining in the season.
In the Red Wolves win last week, Justice Hansen had 275 yards with two TD’s, while also adding another 121 rushing yards. Hansen has a 21/6 TD/INT ratio. Note though that Arkansas State leading rusher Warren Wand sat that one out and he’s also questionable for tonight’s contest as well.
The Red Wolves looked great on defense last week, but face a much stiffer test this weekend.
New Mexico State QB Tyler Rodgers had 382 passing yards, three TD’s and two INT’s last week. So far Rodgers has a 19/13 TD/INT ratio (note though that six of his INT’s came in a single game.) The Aggies are one of the most prolific passing teams in the nation. The defense was also solid last week, holding Georgia Southern to just 265 total yards, including just 73 passing.
I’ll point out though that Arkansas State is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road fav of three points or less, while New Mexicto State is 2-1 ATS in its last three following its bye and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 at home.
The Aggies looked a lot better last week, especially on the defensive side of the ball and specifically against the pass. That’s going to help in going up against Hansen this weekend. Rodgers also faces a tough task against this talented Arkansas State defensive unit, but I think he’ll carry last week’s momentum over and I expect him to keep his team competitive down the stretch in front of the home town crowd.
Mike Anthony
Wisconsin vs. Illinois
Play: Wisconsin
Wisconsin Quintez Cephus is putting up 17.8 yards/catch on 4 catches/game so far. Illinois has struggled with defending the passing game of opponent's all season long. I think Cephus picking up another 90+ YDs on a handful of grabs, is not unreasonable here in Illinois. Wisconsin offense moves the ball extremely well averaging over 6.7 yards/ offensive play despite having a shaky QB situation. Wisconsin will do it again here, as they have proven in the past. The inexperienced receiving skills of freshman WR Ricky Smalling is nothing more than a young WR that shows up and struggles for his couple catches. With just 49 YDs/game on the season - he has shown without getting himself to the next level - he cannot yet carry more of the load for Illinois. Smalling has some slow lateral agility to try and fool defensive backs at the line - and makes his speed even less of a threat. Badgers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games Wisconsin wins BIG behind their defense.
MMA OddsBreaker
Demian Maia vs. Colby Covington
Pick: Demian Maia -140
I think Maia should be a -160 betting favorite heading into this 170-pound matchup, so I see value in him at his current offering underdog price of +105. I see him having more success with Covington than he did with Masvidal, despite Covington being the bigger fighter of the two. I don’t see Covington having as much success as Masvidal did, and I’m not sure if his submission defense will be quite as good, either. I think there is a decent chance that Maia could earn another submission finish here. If not, I do favor him to win at least two out of three rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards.
Will Rogers
Georgia vs. Florida
Pick: Florida +13.5
The set-up: It's once again time for "The World's Greatest Outdoor Cocktail Party," as the Georgia Bulldogs face off against the Florida Gators in Jacksonville on Saturday. Georgia enters 7-0, 4-0 in the SEC and ranked No. 3 in the latest AP poll plus owns an overall 49-43-2 advantage in the series but 3-3 Florida (3-2 in the SEC) comes in having won each of the last three meetings and more impressively, 21 of the past 27 meetings! However, Kirby Smart's Bulldogs are poised to win the SEC East and are a College Football Playoff contender, while Jim McElwain's Gators are 'licking their wounds' after back-to-back losses. Both schools come off a bye week.
Georgia: The Bulldogs own an impressive RB duo in Nick Chubb (688 YR / 6.4 YPC) and Sony Michel (492 YR / 7.2 YPC), who have combined for 1,180 yards rushing and 14 rushing TDs, leading a ground game averaging 282.9 YPG (10th). Freshman Jake Fromm has established himself as the team's No. 1 QB and is completing 62.0% with 12 TDs and just three INTs, as Georgia comes in averaging 37.6 PPG (22nd), including 42.5 points in four conference games. Kirby Smart has really re-tooled the Georgia defense, as after the defense allowed 24.0 PPG in 2016, this year's unit is allowing just 12.6 PPG (4th) on only 252.6 YPG (3rd).
Florida: The Gators have lived on the edge all season, winning 26-20 on the game's final play vs. Tennessee and in the game's final minute 28-27 against Kentucky. However, the team's "good fortune" has run out in home losses to LSU (17-16) and Texas A&M (19-17). Head coach Jim McElwain is clearly on the hot seat and with mounting injuries and recent claims of death threats, who knows what to expect from the Gators. The Gators have averaged 200.4 YPG rushing in their past five games but QB Feleipe Franks has passed for just 243 yards in the team's last two games, throwing two interceptions in the Texas A&M loss. Florida’s offense is averaging just 351.2 YPG, which ranks 10th in the SEC and 102nd nationally. Florida scores a modest 23.7 PPG (96th) and while its defense allows 23.3 PPG (50th) on 354.8 YPG (36th), those numbers pale in comparison to Georgia's defensive prowess here in 2017.
The pick: This is one of the oldest rivalries in college football and as the saying goes, "one can throw out the records!" Florida WR Josh Hammond told reporters on Monday, "They can’t beat Florida,” referencing Florida’s three-game winning streak in a series where the Gators have won 21 of the past 27 meetings. “That’s our mentality going forward.” The Bulldogs have been here before, building a special season with aspirations of a SEC title and maybe more on the horizon until traveling to Jacksonville, Fla. As noted above, Florida has won 21 of the last 27 meetings and twice in the last 15 years, Georgia has faced Florida unbeaten and ranked in the top-five only to lose (2002, 2005). The Gators haven’t lost by more than 12 points vs. the Bulldogs since 1997, so I'm taking the points.
Ian Cameron
Houston at South Florida
Play: South Florida -11
Houston has taken a major step back during the post Tom Herman/Greg Ward Jr. era. Major Applewhite is in his first season as head coach and the Cougars are a underachieving 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS through seven games. One of the biggest issues has been mediocre quarterback play from the duo of Kyle Allen and Kyle Postma. And once thought to be a strength, the defense has been ripped apart in each of the last two weeks giving up 40+ points in consecutive games to Tulsa and Memphis. The Cougars were able to knock off Arizona prior to the return of Khalil Tate, they beat lowly Rice, notched a 7-point win against Temple but failed to cover and were able to take down SMU by double-digits despite being outgained by 81 yards. They also failed to come up with a key stop last week against Memphis as the Tigers came from behind and stole one on the road. Houston is now on a 1-4 ATS slide and facing without question its toughest opponent to date.
South Florida is 7-0 with its eye on reaching the postseason playoffs. They boast an explosive offense that has scored 41.6 ppg thanks to the talented trio of QB Quinton Flowers, RB Darius Tice and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Houston had a tough time stopping Memphis last week and could be without a key contributor with LB Matthew Adams, who is second on the team with 57 tackles, questionable due to an ankle injury. On paper, the Bulls should be able to march the ball up and down the field. There is some question about USF’s strength of schedule. Despite Houston being “down”, this is the most talented team the Bulls have faced. But you can’t control who you play and last week’s wake-up call (nearly blew a 34-7 lead vs. Tulane) should have this team fully focused for an opponent that has one of the better reputations in the AAC. Lay the points with the home side.
Wunderdog
UCLA @ Washington
Pick: UCLA +17.5
UCLA is a huge dog but has plenty of offensive punch behind QB Josh Rosen. He is third in the nation with 380.6 passing yards per game, as well as 38.3 points per contest. Rosen is leading the Pac-12 in passing (2,620 yards, 19 touchdowns) and he is #2 among FBS quarterbacks behind Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph (2,650 yards). They face a Washington squad that was a 17-point favorite last week and lost 13-7 at Arizona State. The Huskies are 5-15 ATS against opponents with a winning percentage between 51-60% with an average final score of 27-26. They are also 2-11 ATS as a home favorite of 14.5 to 17 points and 5-16 ATS as home chalk of 14.5 to 21 points. UCLA pounded Oregon last week, 31-14, and Washington is 5-15 ATS versus a team with a turnover margin of -1 per game, as well as 35-54 ATS at home after playing a Pac 12 contest. And the Bruins are 11-4 ATS against the Huskies, including 6-2 ATS at Washington.
Dr Bob
Oklahoma St. @ West Virginia
It’s no mystery that I think West Virginia is an overrated team and Oklahoma State’s potent attack should have an easy time moving the ball against a porous Mounties’ defense that’s allowed an average of 483 yards and 6.4 yards per play (to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense). West Virginia has allowed 31 points or more to every FBS team they’ve faced except for lowly East Carolina and I don’t give them much chance of holding Oklahoma State below their season average of 43.7 points per game (against teams that are collectively 0.5 yppl better defensively than West Virginia’s defense). Oklahoma State’s offense was held in check last week at Texas (434 yards at 4.9 yppl) but the Longhorns have a good defense and the Cowboys have had no trouble racking up big yards and a lot of points against mediocre and bad defensive teams. Oklahoma State, averaging 586 yards at 7.8 yppl, scored a modest 31 points against TCU, another good defensive team, but the Cowboys scored a minimum of 41 points and an average of 52.4 points in their 5 games when not facing a really good defensive team and the average defensive rating of those 5 teams is only slightly worse than West Virginia’s defensive rating. You get the point. Oklahoma State scores a lot of points against worse than average defensive teams and West Virginia is clearly a worse than average defensive team.
West Virginia does have a good offense that has averaged 40.7 points on 542 yards at 6.9 yppl and that attack is 1.1 yppl better than average after accounting for schedule strength but Oklahoma State has an underrated defense that rates at 1.2 yppl better than average. The Cowboys don’t appear quite that good when looking at their stats but that’s because their backups have allowed 377 yards on 62 plays (6.1 yppl). I leave those stats in my model when Oklahoma State is a big favorite but I take them out in competitive games and the Cowboys’ regular rotation of defenders has allowed just 4.7 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team. Oklahoma State has even been good in the two games in which they gave up a lot of points, as the 44 points they allowed to TCU is misleading given that they limited the Horned Frogs to just 5.7 yards per play in that game and the 34 points they gave up to Texas Tech was on 5.3 yppl allowed, which is incredibly good against the Red Raiders’ potent offense. In those two games in which Oklahoma State allowed a lot of points their defense actually was 0.9 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl allowed to TCU and Texas Tech offenses that would average 6.4 yppl against an average defensive team). West Virginia is projected to score just 30 points in this game against an Oklahoma State defense that is just as good as their offense, which is more that reasonable considering that the Mountaineers scored just 24 points in both games they’ve played against good defensive teams (Virginia Tech and TCU).
It would probably take a -2 in turnovers or a special teams touchdown or two by West Virginia for Oklahoma State not to win by more than 7 points, as I have no doubt that the Cowboys will dominate this game from the line of scrimmage. I’ll take Oklahoma State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -9½ points.
Andre Gomes
San Antonio @ Orlando
Pick: San Antonio -5.5
Orlando is coming from three consecutive games against very bad defensive teams: Brooklyn, Cleveland and again Brooklyn, where even without Payton and Gordon, they had no problems in scoring. Vucevic has been playing very well, but San Antonio's elite defense will be a completely different opponent and this Magic team needs easy points near the basket to be competitive, as their shooting is very streaky.
On the other hand, Orlando by playing Vucevic and Gordon in the frontcourt becomes very susceptible to be outplayed on defense and the Spurs with Aldridge and Gasol have the right tools to torch Orlando's defense tonight, especially LMA who has been great this season. The Spurs have been very focused in shooting near the basket this season and I believe they will do that once again tonight with success and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Tony Finn
Toronto at Los Angeles
Play: Toronto -6
Los Angeles is 2-2 overall and is coming off a big win over the Washington Wizards. The Lakers and Wiz went to overtime on Wednesday night with Los Angeles scoring a 102-99 victory. Toronto fell to the Golden State Warriors in their last contest. The Raptors were without two of their bigs in the 117-112 loss at Oracle Arena.
The injuries to centers Jonas Valanciunas and Lucas Nogueira make the Raptors less defensive and more up-tempo offensively. All-Stars DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry will test Lonzo Ball and the Lakers backcourt throughout tonight's contest.
Toronto is playing their third of six road games, and the third game in five nights. But despite the tough road schedule the Raptors are stepping down in class from their last two games, at San Antonio and in Golden State, and should not only win against the youthful Lakers but push 120-plus points to the scoreboard in a win.
Bob Balfe
Dodgers +115
These World Series games are as close as they get. It’s almost impossible to find a true edge and each game is going to come down to one big mistake or one big hit. If we look at pure pitching numbers the edge goes to Darvish who had a better season and on top of that is really on fire right now. The Dodgers are a more complete team that should win this series.