Chase Diamond
Washington St vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona +2.5
This game features the 7-1 Washington State at the 5-2 Arizona. This game really is between a super defense in Washington State only allowing 274 yards per game and a super offense that scores 40 points per game. This is a big revenge game for Arizona as they lost last year 69-7 and I expect them to be more then up for this one. 65% of the money has come in on the road Cougars but this line seems to be dropping off of 3. Take the points and Arizona as I think they get an upset win here but we will play the points for safety.
Dave Price
Washington -17.5
The Washington Huskies now have no margin for error if they want to get back to the four-game playoff for a second straight season. That's because they lost last time out 7-13 against a rapidly improving Arizona State team on the road. Now not only do the Huskies need to win, they need to win impressively. And they are coming off their bye week, and a team like Washington is great to back coming off a loss and on their bye week. The Huskies should be able to name their score against this weak UCLA defense, which gives up 36.7 PPG, 494 YPG and 6.3 YPP this season. UCLA has lost all 3 of its road games this season to Memphis, Stanford (34-58) and Arizona (30-47). If Stanford and Arizona can blow them out by 17-plus points, I have no doubt Washington in this spot off the bye and off a loss can win by 18-plus today.
Joey Juice
The Dodgers are desperate as they need to try and even the series up with the Houston Astros in game four of the World Series. The Dodgers will hand the ball to 26-year old left-hander Alex Wood, who was terrible last time out, and the Astros will give the nod to 33-year old right-hander Charlie Morton. Astros have the momentum as they have won two straight to take a 2-1 series lead.
A look inside the numbers tells you all you need to know about this game and who to bet on. The Houston Astros own the post season at home, they are 7-0 in their last seven home playoff games. Morton has tons of momentum coming into this one, he is 5-1 in his last six starts.
Plus, the Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a left-handed starter, and 22-7 in their last 29 games against a starter with a WHIP below 1.15.
Dodgers on the other hand never win in Houston, they are 0-4 in their last 4 games in Houston.
Astros are the free play.
3* HOUSTON
Oskeim Sports
Michigan St at Northwestern
Play: Northwestern +2.5
After an extremely disappointing 2016 campaign, Michigan State has bounced back with a vengeance this season, winning six of its first seven games. The Spartans are now traveling for the third time in four weeks and have a huge conference affair against Penn State on deck.
Michigan State arrives in town with a subpar offense that is averaging 22.7 points and 373 total yards per game at 5.1 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yards per play to a mediocre attack.
The Spartans’ attack has been even worse on foreign soil where they are averaging 22.0 points and 308 total yards per game at 4.7 yards per play. Michigan State also lacks the ability to generate explosive plays, averaging 16.4 yards per point. In contrast, Northwestern is averaging 15.1 yards per point against teams that would combine to allow 15.8 yards per point to a mediocre attack. Let’s also note that the Wildcats own the nation’s 15th-best red zone offense compared to Michigan State’s 89th-ranked red zone offense.
With scoring being at a premium in this game, efficiency inside the 20-yard-line becomes imperative. Northwestern’s defense is 0.7 yards per play better than average (5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yards per play against a mediocre stop unit), giving them a significant 0.8 yards per play advantage from the line of scrimmage.
Northwestern is also limiting opponents to a mere 17.0 points per game at 4.9 yards per play and 20.4 yards per point at home this season.
The importance of field position becomes amplified in games involving two elite defensive teams like Michigan State and Northwestern. The Spartans will struggle to achieve decent field position against the Wildcats’ 20th-ranked kickoff return coverage unit and 31st-ranked net punting unit.
From a technical standpoint, Michigan State is a money-burning 0-7 ATS as a road favorite over the last three seasons, whereas the Wildcats are 8-0 ATS after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game over the last two seasons.
Finally, my math model actually favors Northwestern in this contest so we are getting excellent line value with the live home underdog. With Northwestern standing at 7-1 ATS in its last eight October affairs and 4-1 ATS in its last five conference tilts, grab the points with the Wildcats and invest with confidence.
Buster Sports
Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky
Play: Western Kentucky +7
Lane Kiffin and the Florida Atlantic Owls head to Bowling Green, Kentucky to face the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers on Saturday. This line opened up with Florida Atlantic being a two point favorite and now the line is gone all the way to 7 points and we will be more than happy to take the home underdog Hilltoppers. The Owls are starting to put up some points as they have the 10th ranked rushing offense in the nation. However, Western Kentucky stands 30th in the nation in scoring defense allowing only 20 points per game. There is no doubt that the Owls are starting to understand their offensive system that is being run by Kiffin, in that they have now won three games in a row. On the other side of the field new Western Kentucky HC Mike Sanford has put in a new offensive system himself and senior QB Mike White is starting to get used to it putting up 80 points in their last two games. Now we are quite aware that Western Kentucky has not played to what we believe is their potential, but getting seven points at home in what is the most important conference game of the year for both clubs, we just cannot pass that up. We know the Owls will get their points with that great run offense but we believe Western Kentucky will be able to move the ball successfully against the number 96th ranked D in college football.
Bob Balfe
Washington State -2.5
Washington State is a great team that had a head scratching loss two weeks ago to Cal, but came back with a shutout win last week. This team is stacked with multiple receivers and running backs and one of the best QB’s the PAC 12 has seen in Luke Falk. Arizona is a one trick pony, but very good at what they do which is running the football. Washington State has the speed to slow down the run and are more prone to losing to a team that can sling the ball up and down the field. That is not the case today. If Arizona gets behind to this quick strike Cougar Offense they won’t be able to catch up. Arizona is a very young team with 27 freshman on the roster and I just don’t see them being balanced enough on offense to beating a team like this.
Dodgers/Astros Over 8
It’s amazing how quickly things change in MLB. The Dodgers were a few outs away from taking a 2-0 series lead, but lost that game and were clueless last night. L.A. is the team that looks out of sync right now and I expect the Astros to really light up the scoreboard tonight. The only good news for the Dodgers is Morton has struggled and will allow runs himself. The winner of this game should get around 8 runs themselves.
Harry Bondi
San Diego State (-9.5) over Hawaii
This becomes a big game for San Diego State who started the season 6-0 but has dropped 2 straight including being embarrassed by San Jose State 27-3 at home last week. Angry Aztecs will take out on the Rainbows who they beat 55-0 last year and have defeated 21 STRAIGHT TIMES going 18-3 ATS in those games! It’s a San Diego State Blowout!
The Real Animal
Clemson -14
How anxious do you think Clemson is to get back on the field considering it was two weeks last night they lost at Syracuse. QB Kelly Bryant is back in the lineup and that's significant since he left the upset at the Carrier Dome in the second quarter. The problem here for Georgia Tech is Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is a guru when it comes to stopping the triple option. The last two meetings in this series the Tigers have won by 43-24 and 26-7 scores and the Jackets were limited to a combined 23 first downs and 166 yards rushing on 80 carries. Plus this Tech team can't pass worth a lick with 68, 55, 53, and 48 passing yards in their last four games with five, three, five, and four completions. You know the Clemson front four will be seething after getting embarrassed by Syracuse. Swinney is 6-2 ATS in his career against Paul Johnson. I know Georgia Tech is 6-0 ATS this year but I think it ends in death valley.
Jim Mack
Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -19.5
Since Texas Tech beat Oklahoma 41-13, the Sooners have responded by winning six of the L7 head-to-head matchups while putting up 47.6 PPG. My own simulation numbers call for the Sooners to get about 47 points in this game. So ask yourself this, if you think there’s a good chance that a team will score 47 points in a game, wouldn’t you think they will have a great chance of covering too? I do, specifically because OKLAHOMA is 24-11 ATS in their L35 games when they score 42 to 48 points. The average score was OKLAHOMA 44.2, OPPONENT 20.7. They are only laying about 20 points here so its not like HC Lincoln Riley’s team is being greeted by an insurmountable challenge by the oddsmakers. For the record, Oklahoma is also 5-1 SU & ATS hosting Texas Tech since '06. The Sooners’ defense has kind of been going through the motions over the last four games as well, and needs a good tuneup to get ready for Oklahoma State next weekend. Expect a better effort from that unit as QB Baker Mayfield and the OU offense put on a show.
Brad Powers
Washington St / Arizona Over 63.5
Hats off to Washington St as they were coming off their first loss off the season and they dominated Colorado with a 28-0 win. While the Cougars are 4-1 in Pac-12 action their upset over USC doesn’t look as good and their other 4 opponents are a combined 3-16 in conference action. The Wildcats are coming off a 2OT win at Cal and have now won 3 straight Pac-12 games for the first time since 2014. It’s no coincidence that it’s the same 3 game span that QB Khalil Tate (231 rushing YPG & 16.1 YPC last 3) has started and won 3 straight Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week awards. The Wildcats are now No. 4 in rushing at 342 YPG and lead the conference in scoring (43.1). Cougars counter with rush D allowing 120 YG & 3.4 YPC. Better defense has us leaning with Washington St here but we prefer the OVER.
OC Dooley
Wisconsin / Illinois Over 51.5
At most offshore locations this total opened down at the 49 point level which made sense since the struggling Illinois offense in four conference games has averaged only 16 points per game while on the entire campaign their various quarterbacks have been sacked 18 different times. Not only are the Illini coached by "defensive" oriented Lovie Smith the offense ranks dead last in the conference in rushing with an average of just 118 yards per pop on the ground. With COLD temperatures (wind chills in the 30's) forecast along with sustained wind speeds around 15 miles per hour, one has to wonder why this total has actually RISEN especially with visiting Wisconsin ranked way up at #10 nationally (in 3 critical defensive caregories) and has held the opposition to 24-or-less points in every contest played so far. One of the reasons is the Badgers have star rusher Jonathan Taylor who is facing a horrible Illinois "run defense" which is worst in the Big Ten draw and #107 nationally. In addition spanning the past TWENTY FIVE YEARS when facing an opponent with a poor rush defense that on average permits 200+ ground yards per contest, Wisconsin is an eye opening 13-4 OVER the total with the offense in that situation putting up a hefty 35 points per game on the scoreboard
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles +103 over BOSTON
After a five day break, the Bruins returned to the ice on Thursday night and defeated the Sharks 2-1. Boston was the second best team on the ice that day but Anton Khudobin stole one and a rookie by the name of Danton Heinen, who was sent back down to the minors and recalled just before game time scored both Boston’s goals. Boston allowed 37 shots on net and was also out-chanced, 31-25. The game prior to that, Boston lost in OT to Buffalo and allowed 42 shots on net and were out-chanced in that one too. The Bruins get Tuukka Rask back tonight after he missed the last three games but contrary to market belief, that’s not a good thing. Rask is not only rusty, but he’s been shaky as hell with a 1-3 record and losing to Vegas once and the Avalanche twice.
These are not the same “grinding out victories” Kings’ that were used to seeing. Under Darryl Sutter and GM Dean Lombardi, the Kings played a defensive, physical, old school game that worked for a while but wasn’t working anymore. When we think L.A. Kings hockey over the past five years, we think 3-2 and 2-1 games but that’s not the case anymore. It’s now John Stevens behind the bench with Luc Robitaille taking over the GM duties and the Kings are playing a different style that the players are embracing. It’s no longer a case of sitting back and waiting for the opposition to make a mistake. The Kings have become an aggressive team that has been given free reigns to attack and create. Ask the 600 + players in this league which style they would rather play and 100% of them would choose the latter. The vets on this team are loving it after being stuck playing a defensive style for so long. Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown are thriving. Kopitar struggled through a 12-goal season under Sutter but has seven goals and 12 points in the first 10 games this year. Rookie Adrian Kempe is an early season fav for the Calder and goaltender Jonathan Quick is playing at a high level too. It’s not just those singled out players either. From top to bottom, the Kings are having fun coming to the rink again and they have the numbers both above and under the surface to confirm that their early success is sustainable.
The bets are as follows:
Los Angeles -1½ +285 for 1 unit
Los Angeles +103 for 1 unit
MONTREAL -1½ +204 over N.Y. Rangers
The Rangers have won two of their last three games after a 1-6 start to the season. Like his counterpart in Montreal, Henrik Lundqvist has come under fire for his lackluster play and so the Rags will turn once again to Ondrej Pavelec, who started in their 5-2 win over the Coyotes. The Yotes were a lot better than that score would indicate (they outshot NYR, 27-25) but they could not get the stops when they needed them. Pavelec has played well in one of his three games this season and we doubt he is capable of putting up back to back quality starts. The fact the Rags are 21st in Corsi Against also doesn’t bode well for Pavelec.
The Canadiens were shut out 4-0 by the Kings and as the losses pile up so do the negative stories surrounding this team. The media influences public perception and between Carey Price’s sub .900 save percentage, the Alex Galchenyuk controversy and the compounding losses, you’d think the Habs were to total disarray but the reality is they are playing well, but are not getting the bounces. Montreal is an elite puck possession team with a Corsi For% of 55.5 just .03 back of first place Edmonton. The Canadiens have outshot their opponents in three straight games including 40-28 in that loss to the Kings. Prior to that game, we saw what happens when this team is firing on all cylinders when they beat the Panthers 5-1. While the Habs are doing just about everything right, their PDO (Save % + Shooting %), which can be boiled down to “puck luck” is not going right. Montreal is dead last at 88.0%, thus, a correction is coming. Carey Price was booed at home after that loss to Los Angeles but unlike the Canadiens faithful, we are not going to turn our backs on him just yet. If he and the Habs were getting the results for their effort, what would this line be? Price’s stock is at an all-time low, Montreal’s stock is also low but in reality, one would be hard pressed to find a team that is working harder or playing better than the Montreal Canadiens. This market buys results but we’ll continue to buy ingredients and get paid for doing so. Buy all the Montreal stock you can.
Washington @ EDMONTON
We’re not going to go into a lot of great detail regarding the Oilers here because everyone knows who they are and what they are but let us reiterate that Edmonton is the NHL’s top possession team that has created more scoring chances than any team in the NHL. The Oilers are in the -130 price range here, which is way off my friends because if they were playing the Sabres or Flyers for instance, they would be in the -170 to -190 range and we assure you that Buffalo and Philly are both superior to the Caps. That may appear to be a bit of a bold statement but we’re not talking talent, we’re talking the entire picture and right now, the Caps are mentally fried.
Don’t get us wrong, as Washington has some quality players that obviously could crack any lineup in the game. However, we’ve said it since the start of the year and will not relent in saying that the Caps have lost their way and their will. That was never more evident than in their last game in Vancouver when they started roughing some Canucks players up with less than 3 minutes to go in the third and down 6-1. Frustration has also set in. Early playoff exits with such a promising group have finally taken its toll on the Caps. All that hard work during the regular season only to be knocked out in the first or second round has snowballed into a group of frustrated players that have seen its window closed for good. Too many key players bolted in the off-season. What’s left is frustrated players that are under contract and some castoffs that nobody else wanted. The Caps defense is minor-league quality. We saw the Canucks manhandle this team on Thursday. We’ve seen the Caps go 0-3 against top-10 teams this year so far and we don’t see a damn thing changing here. The Caps are ripe and if you want true value, spot the -130 because it’s a great bet. We’ll stick to our -1½ philosophy and take our chances.