Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, October 29th, 2016

Oskeim Sports

Central Florida at Houston
Play: Central Florida +9

After suffering through an 0-12 season last year, Central Florida made one of the best offseason hires in Scott Frost, who spent seven seasons developing Oregon's high-powered offense before arriving in Orlando. With seventeen returning starters and excellent coordinators on both sides of the ball, the Knights entered 2016 as one of the most underrated teams in the nation.

Central Florida has not disappointed its fan base through the first eight weeks, posting a 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS record, including taking down East Carolina as a 3-point road underdog. The Knights are off a solid 24-16 win at Connecticut on Saturday and were the beneficiaries of an unexpected bye the week prior due to Hurricane Matthew.

Meanwhile, Houston had its playoff hopes dashed by Navy two weeks ago and has looked lackluster ever since. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in each of their last two games and suffered a shocking 38-16 loss to lowly SMU last Saturday as 23-point favorites. With their postseason hopes gone and rumors circulating about the impending departure of head coach Tom Herman, the Cougars are simply going through the motions in light of the circumstances.

Central Florida's stop unit has excelled under the leadership of defensive coordinator Erik Chinander. The Knights are allowing just 4.7 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yards per play against a mediocre defensive squad. Houston will not be able to run the ball against a stout UCF front seven that has been 1.1 yards per rush play better than average (3.3 yards per rush attempt to a group of running backs who would average 4.4 yards per rush play).

Central Florida's secondary has been 0.4 yards per pass attempt better than average and is limiting opposing quarterbacks to a 51.8% completion rate. Regardless of whether it's on the ground or through the air, Houston's pedestrian offense (5.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play) will struggle to move the chains Saturday afternoon.

Finally, my math model favors Houston by less than six points so we are getting excellent line value on the underrated Knights. Grab the generous points and invest with confidence.

Harry Bondi

TULANE -2.5 over SMU

The Green Wave has covered all three home games this season and will bring home the cash again here as they get to face an SMU team that’s in a major letdown spot after knocking off No. 11 Houston last week, 38-16, as a 22-point underdog. The SMU defense has been susceptible to the run all season and now they have to face a new and improved Tulane option offense. Look for the hungover and distracted Mustangs to struggle in this spot.

Bruce Marshall

Middle Tenn. St. -16.5

FIU's brief revival under interim HC Ron Cooper came to a screeching halt when a competent foe (La Tech) showed up in Miami last Saturday. So unless number inflates after MTSU's rousing win at Mizzou, Blue Raiders and raging RB Mathers (940 YR--ranks 5th nationally!) can do much the same as Skip Holtz's Bulldogs.

Harry Bondi

CENTRAL MICHIGAN -15 over Kent State

All “Steam Team” members got last Saturday off to a fast start when we opened the day with an easy winner on Toledo (-10) over Central Michigan, 31-17, but this week we’ll jump in and make a play on the Chippewas, who have dominated this series, winning 13 of the last 16 over Kent. The Golden Flashes are simply out of gas emotionally, after losing four of their last five, all in gut-wrenching fashion. Central Michigan has covered five of its last seven in games following a loss and they do it again here.

DAVE COKIN

CINCINNATI AT TEMPLE
PLAY: TEMPLE -7

Now that -7 is widely available on this game, I think it’s time to step in with a play on Temple.

Cincinnati managed to get a win last week against East Carolina, but it was really mistakes by the Pirates that got the Bearcats into the victory column.

I was very impressed with Temple in its win over South Florida. Certainly they were helped by the fact USF cannot stop the run, but the fact is the Owls dominated that game and were pretty easy winners. Aside from the opening game disaster vs. Army, this is proving to be a very solid Temple entry. The Owls lost the stats against the Cadets and also by a bit in the loss at Penn State. But Temple has won that comparison in all their other games.

The Bearcats have gone back to Gunner Kiel at QB, and I thought he was okay last week against East Carolina, but he’ll face a better defense here. Cincinnati has a very good ballhawking secondary, and Phillip Walker is a QB who van get inaccurate at times, so there is some worry on that count.

But as I played Temple last week and got the win, I like the idea of coming right back with them here, and the Owls are a team with positive momentum presently. Now that I’m not having to spot more than a TD, Temple minus the points moves into the play on column.

Sleepyj

Purdue +11.5

First off Penn St might be hung over like Johnny Manziel after New Year's.....PSU beating Ohio St in dramatic fashion was sweet....Now the Lions make the top 25....It's a trend that is very well known...Teams that crack the top 25 after a big key win struggle the next week...Expectations + letdown hangover....Not to mention Purdue now comes home after back to back losses....Purdue actually played very well last week in Nebraska....Cornhuskers trailed for a large part of that game and the Purdue defense actually played very well....Penn St now has to travel which won't help them on top of it...Purdue now has a chance to play a top 25 team two weeks in a row...Upset is possible, but the Boilermakers at home might be the way to go here....Purdue has faced, Iowa, Cinn & Nebraska...some pretty good tests along the way...PSU has had some very tough defensive games.i worry they are flat as a pancake in this one.

Alex Smart

UL-Monroe vs. Arkansas St
Play: Arkansas St -20

UL Monroe looks like a program in complete disarray. Their is no emotion on the sidelines and sulking is the norm. The program has lost 16 of their L/18 FBS games. Manwhile, Arkansas State is in a rebuilding mode, but have played better as the season progressed, winning two straight against viable opponents G.Soutehrn and S.Alabama and very much look like the right side today. Arkansas state has coverd 7 straight in this series, and against a side that is getting out stated by 161 ypg, another win and cover makes for a viable wagering opportunity. Arkansas State is 8-1 ATS L/9 versus poor rushing defenses -allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry 3inning SU by an average of 22.4 ppg. LA MONROE is 1-10 ATS L/11 in October games over the last few seasons losing SU by just a little over 20 ppg.

Dwayne Bryant

Michigan at Michigan St
Play: Under 54

Another college football in-state rivalry takes place in East Lansing, Michigan on Saturday at Noon Eastern, as the #2 Michigan Wolverines [197] visit the Michigan State Spartans [198]. I am recommending the UNDER in this football game.

The Spartans offense has averaged 21 points in their four Big Ten tilts this season. They were held to just six points at home against Wisconsin earlier this season, and they aren't going to find much success against this Wolverines defense either. Michigan's D has allowed a TOTAL of 25 points in their four Big Ten matchups this season. That's an average of just 6.25 points per contest! To say this Wolverines defense has been dominant this season would be an understatement.

Michigan has a well-balanced offense that averages 226 passing yards and 257 rushing yards per game. Their 48.7 points per game will have many totals bettors leaning to the Over here. The Spartans have allowed 34 points per game in their Big Ten contests, and it's hard to imagine Michigan not eclipsing that number in this one.

One thing that may very well slow down Michigan's offense (and Sparty's, too) is the expected wind for this game. The wind will wreak havoc on the passing games and force these two offenses to keep it on the ground more than they normally would. Sharp bettors have already bet this total down to 54 from the opening 56.

Despite some lost value, I still see the UNDER as a solid play here. I'm calling this one Michigan 38, Michigan State 10. Take the UNDER in East Lansing on Saturday.

Buster Sports

Cincinnati at Temple
Play: Temple -7

The Owls have been playing some excellent football of late and they are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games. In their last game they beat South Florida 46-30 as they held the number 8th ranked offense to 354 yards well under their average of 487. All year it has been defense for Temple and they are ranked 17th in yards allowed per game. Temple has won the stat battle in their last 5 games so it is obvious that their offense is looking way better than it did at the beginning of the year. As for Cincinnati, the Bearcats got themselves a much needed victory last week against East Carolina. They need to come up with 2 more wins to become bowl eligible, but unfortunately they will have to wait till next week as the Owls just seem to be too strong and on a roll. Temple has the stronger offense 49th to 74th and the better defense 38th to 76th. The oddsmaker has this line set at 7 at the time of this writing and we will be happy to LAY IT.

Allen Eastman

Purdue (+12) over Penn State

Purdue would love to wrap up October with a big win. They have played well the last couple weeks. They easily covered at Nebraska last week and only lost to Iowa by 14 points the week before. Now the Boilermakers are at home against a Penn State team that is due for a big letdown. The Nittany Lions are coming off one of the biggest upsets of the season so far, beating Ohio State thanks to a blocked kick TD. That game was at home in primetime last week. Now they have to go on the road to play a noon game in Indiana against a weak Purdue team that has just one league win. Penn State has won seven straight in this series. I don't think that they are going to take Purdue seriously. This should be a sloppy game and a low-scoring one. And I think that works to Purdue's advantage. Penn State has only played two road games this year. They lost both. The Nittany Lions are off three straight home games and I think that they will struggle in their first road trip in over one month and Penn State is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 road games. The Boilermakers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after a loss. Take the points and look for a sloppy game.

Indian Cowboy

Florida (-7.5) over Georgia

Florida could be very bad news for Georgia this weekend. Sure, the Bulldogs were looking ahead past Vanderbilt and ended up losing outright (we did have a premium selection for us on Vanderbilt over Florida) but they very well could still lose badly in this rivalry. Georgia is going to take some time to play the physical level of play that Kirby Smart wants. And this team will have a good year if they can simply make it to a bowl game. At this point as we believe Florida will win this game and send Georgia to a 4-4 mark. In essence, we only believe Georgia will beat Kentucky and ULL as they very well could lose to Auburn badly and Georgia Tech at the end of the year. This is a Georgia team that lost to Ole Miss by 31 points, beat Nichols by 2 points and lost to Vanderbilt by a point. This is a Florida team that is ranked top 15 in the country, just routed Missouri 40-14, this team needs a signature blowout win, and with Arkansas, LSU and Florida State on deck, this is a must win for this squad in this rivalry. We have Florida winning 32-18 this weekend.

Alan Harris

Arizona St / Oregon Over 78.5

Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Arizona St Sun Devils hit the road to take on the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, OR on Saturday night. Arizona St. has posted a 6-2 record to the over in their last eight games following a game where the allowed less than 100 yards on the ground and they have gone an excellent 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Oregon has been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have posted a 5-1 record in their last six games where they faced a team with a winning record and they have gone a perfect 7-0 to the over in their last seven Pac-12 games. They have also gone 23-6-2 to the over in their last 31 games following a straight up loss and they are an insane 44-17-1 to the over in their last 62 home games. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone 5-1 to the over in their last six head-to-head meetings, including a 61-55 win by the Ducks last season in Tempe, and that's where we'll have our play as we expect this one to turn into an old fashioned Pac-12 shootout in Eugene on Saturday night.

Jason Sharpe

Boise State (-13.5) over Wyoming

The Wyoming Cowboys have been a team that I've followed very closely this season. It seems that most weeks the Cowboys don't get enough respect in the betting markets, but that's not the case here in this game against Mountain West Conference powerhouse Boise State. Wyoming comes into this game with 3 straight wins overall after last week's hard-fought road victory in Nevada. For as much hype as Boise State gets for their home blue turf, they've actually been a much better bet when they've been on the road. The Broncos come into this game with a very impressive 30-13 record overall against the spread in their last 43 road games dating back to 2008. Doesn't get much better than that kind of ATS mark for a CFB team over that large of a sample size. This is a solid program that is all business when they go on the road.

Robert Ferringo

San Jose State (+3.5) over UNLV

UNLV as a road favorite? Hell no. The Rebels have one of the worst programs in college football. And they've done nothing this season to make me think that they are set to go on the road and beat an underachieving San Jose State squad. UNLV has a win over an FCS team and then wins over feeble Fresno State and Hawaii. That hardly screams, "powerhouse" to me. And UNLV could be without its quarterback this week (he is questionable; check his status). UNLV is 22-48 ATS in its last 70 road games, meaning that betting blindly against them on the road has cashed at a nearly 70 percent clip for nearly a decade. That's an automatic play. San Jose State is 7-3 ATS after a loss and 13-6 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record. They have also covered four straight in this series. San Jose State stinks. But so does UNLV. So if you give me the home team, the points, the healthier quarterback and a chance to play into a 70 percent 10-year trend I'm going to go ahead and pull the trigger on that.