Oskeim Sports
Central Florida at Houston
Play: Central Florida +9
After suffering through an 0-12 season last year, Central Florida made one of the best offseason hires in Scott Frost, who spent seven seasons developing Oregon's high-powered offense before arriving in Orlando. With seventeen returning starters and excellent coordinators on both sides of the ball, the Knights entered 2016 as one of the most underrated teams in the nation.
Central Florida has not disappointed its fan base through the first eight weeks, posting a 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS record, including taking down East Carolina as a 3-point road underdog. The Knights are off a solid 24-16 win at Connecticut on Saturday and were the beneficiaries of an unexpected bye the week prior due to Hurricane Matthew.
Meanwhile, Houston had its playoff hopes dashed by Navy two weeks ago and has looked lackluster ever since. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in each of their last two games and suffered a shocking 38-16 loss to lowly SMU last Saturday as 23-point favorites.
With their postseason hopes gone and rumors circulating about the impending departure of head coach Tom Herman, the Cougars are simply going through the motions in light of the circumstances.
Central Florida's stop unit has excelled under the leadership of defensive coordinator Erik Chinander. The Knights are allowing just 4.7 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yards per play against a mediocre defensive squad.
Houston will not be able to run the ball against a stout UCF front seven that has been 1.1 yards per rush play better than average (3.3 yards per rush attempt to a group of running backs who would average 4.4 yards per rush play).
Central Florida's secondary has been 0.4 yards per pass attempt better than average and is limiting opposing quarterbacks to a 51.8% completion rate. Regardless of whether it's on the ground or through the air, Houston's pedestrian offense (5.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play) will struggle to move the chains Saturday afternoon.
Finally, my math model favors Houston by less than six points so we are getting excellent line value on the underrated Knights. Grab the generous points and invest with confidence.
Mike Rose
Michigan at Michigan St
Play: Michigan -24.5
Still winless in Big Ten play, the Michigan State Spartans will take to their home field in Week 9 confident knowing they’ve taken seven of the L/8 meetings against hated Michigan and covered seven of those contests against the spread. This season however is a down one in East Lansing, and linemakers aren’t giving them much of a shot at competing lining them the biggest home dogs of the Mark Dantonio era.
Dantonio made the switch last week to redshirt frosh Brian Lewerke, but the offense hardly benefitted from the change. He completed just 11 of 24 passes for 156 yards with an interception. While he did rack up 79 yards on the ground, most of the yardage was accrued after he dropped back for a pass, couldn’t find anything he liked, and then tucked it and ran. That simply won’t do against a ferocious U of M defense that leads the Big Ten with 25 sacks.
It looked to be all over but the crying for Sparty in last season’s tilt with the Wolverines in the Big House. But, Michigan went from the penthouse to the outhouse in the blink of an eye, and you know darn well that loss has been eating at Jim Harbaugh’s craw for the past year. I bet he’s had dreams about disemboweling the Spartans in front of their home crowd ever since.
Normally, I’d look to throw the records out for a rivalry like this. But when you pair last season’s choke job with Michigan finally being leaps and bounds better than its in-state rival and Harbaugh out for blood, I can’t help but think the Wolverines will stop at nothing to embarrass MSU and not take their foot off the gas until the clock reads double zeroes.
Ken Thomson
Wake Forest -7
Always tough to lay a TD with an offensively challenged squad like Wake Forest, however Third year HC Dave Clawson has the Demon Deacons playing as a team. Wake has a solid front seven and has yielded just ( 3.4 ypc ) on the ground. Couple that with coming off a bye and an extra week to prepare for Army's option attack and I see Wake Forest keeping the Black Knights in check. Wake Forest QB John Wolford will manage the offense and has actually rushed for more TD's than he's thrown for but it's the defense led by DE Duke Ejiofor ( 7.5 sacks ) that has me on this side. Only common opponent was at Durham, NC vs. Duke as WF beat the Blue Devils by 24-14 and Army struggled to move the ball in a 13-6 defeat. After starting out ( 3-0 ) Army has dropped their last 3 games vs. FBS opponents while scoring an average of less than 15 points per game. I see more of the same in Winston-Salem.
Scott Spreitzer
Duke vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Duke +6½
Both teams had last weekend off and David Cutcliffe-coached teams already have had little trouble preparing for option football even without an extra week. Duke has beaten Ga Tech each of the last two seasons, including once on this field and they already beat Army and their option-based offense earlier this season, holding the Cadets to 6 points. Cutcliffe's Blue Devils have covered five straight off a bye week and the defense will face a Ga Tech option attack that's down a tad from recent versions.
Jimmy Boyd
San Diego St/Utah St Under 43½
San Diego State features one of the best defenses in the country. The Aztecs have allowed a total of 13 points in their last 3 games combined. On the season, they are holding opponents to a mere 286 ypg. Nearly 100-yards fewer than what their opponents average (373).
Hard to see the Aggies being the team to crack this defense. Utah State is only averaging 25.4 ppg and rank 83rd in total offense at just 359.6 ypg. The two best defenses they have faced to this point are USC and Boise State. The Aggies managed just 7 points against the Trojans 10 points against the Broncos.
The key here is that I think Utah State’s defense is capable of keeping the Aztecs offense in check. San Diego State has one of the best rushing attacks in the country. They come in 14th in the nation at 252.7 ypg. However, they also have one of the worst passing games in the country, ranking 114th at just 165.6 ypg.
Utah State’s defense has been solid against the run this season. While they are giving up 152 ypg, they are allowing just 3.6 yards/carry. They are also holding opposing teams to just 5.0 yards/play. Playing at home will definitely help the intensity of the defense. It’s also a lot easier to stop a team who is one dimensional.
Possessions should be limited for both sides, which is a key factor when looking to bet the UNDER. The Aztecs also aren’t a team who looks to poor it on late. In their 42-3 win over San Jose State, they didn’t score once in the 4th quarter.
Under is 15-5 in San Diego State’s last 20 conference games. It’s also 12-2 in their last 14 against a team with a losing record and 6-0 in their last 6 against teams who force 1 or fewer turnovers/game.
Jim Feist
Washington St at Oregon St
Pick: Over
Washington State has a deadly air raid attack, No. 3 in the nation in passing with 366.6 yards per game, plus 40.4 ppg. Quarterback Luke Falk directs the Cougars high-powered attack and is ranked second in the Pac-12 with an average of 358.7 passing yards per game. The Cougars complement Falk with an improved rushing attack with 17 rushing TDs. The Over is 8-3 in the Cougars last 11 road games. Oregon State has dropped four of its last five games, and playing a similar all-out passing team, beating California (47-44). The Over is 7-1 in Beavers last 8 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Washington State has won the last two meetings in the back-and-forth series after last season's 52-31 road victory. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Rob Vinciletti
Tulane -2½
The Green Wave has a big defensive edge. SMU is off a massive win as a 23 point home dog to Houston. Today we are playing against team off a win as a dog of 20 or more. These teams are 8-52 straight up long term. this system already cashed nicely playing against Duke this year after their upset win at Notre Dame as these teams simply cannot come back the next week with the same effort. Tulane is 4-0 ats vs a conference team off a dog win. Tulane is 5-0 as a favorite and SMU has failed to cover 8 of 11 as a road dog of 3 or less.
Dennis Macklin
Penn State vs. Purdue
Play:Penn State -13½
You would think that after last week's upset of Ohio State, going on the road against a team they should beat handily could be a prime spot for a Penn State let down. Not so says my top Big Ten contact who is also an intimate with the Penn State program. Franklin has this team buying in and the Nits have their attention set on a major January 1st Bowl game. Teams often get a boost after firing their coach and the Purdue did just that in giving Nebraska all it wanted last week but it's back to normal for the Boilers who are simply playing out the string. These teams haven't played recently but Penn State has owned the series and ends an 0-8 road fave run with a 45-14 win today in Lafayette.
Ray Monohan
Northwestern vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -27
The Buckeyes look to rebound from what was an embarrassing and tough loss to swallow last Saturday in Penn State.
As heavy favorites, the Buckeyes flopped, making their road to the BCS Playoff much tougher now.
This is going to be a case where Urban Meyer takes out his frustrations. Northwestern isn't an overpowering team by any means as they average just 25.9 points per game. The Buckeyes have put up 55.2 points per game at home, while conceding just 7.
Combine those stats with the Buckeyes not only needing impressive wins, but also taking their frustrations out, and Ohio State will try to score 100 points if they can.
Some trends to note. Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Home team is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Trends favor the home team and favorite. Aside from that, Meyer isn't happy after last week and will really open the playbook here for JT Barrett and company.
Chip Chirimbes
Washington vs. Utah
Play: Utah +10½
Well, the Pac-12's two best will slug it out in Salt Lake City as No. 4 ranked Washington faces No. 17 Utah. Washington has had their way running roughshod over much weaker opponents while piling up some very impressive stats like out-scoring their opponents 200-24 in the first half. Utah will take and stop that machine with a defense that leading the nation intake-a-ways (22) with 14 interceptions. A pair of trends are that the Huskies are 3-13 ATS on the road with conference revenge and Utah is 12-3 as double-digit dogs.
Ken Lowden
Baylor / Texas Under 73½
Yes, these teams are combined an average of nearly 79 points per game, but you have to remember that the team's defense is also apart of the equation. On average the two teams combine for around 50 points given up per game which will ultimately drag the total score of the game down under 73.5.
The initial O/U line was set at 69 points. At this point in time, you can get in 4.5 points higher than you would when it was first released. Ken believes that there will be a sharp line movement in favor of the Under by the time the game begins.
An improving Texas defense, which gave up an average of 39.6 points per game in their first 5 games has now only given up an average of 15 points per game in their last two.
Jack Jones
Tennessee -14
The Tennessee Volunteers needed a bye last week more than anyone in college football. They had just played a gauntlet of a schedule with four straight games against Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M and Alabama. And they clearly ran out of gas in their 10-49 loss to the Crimson Tide.
I believe the Volunteers will be rejuvenated off their bye week. They get some key players back healthy this week both offense and defense. And now they get to face what I believe is the worst team in the SEC in South Carolina.
The Gamecocks are scary close to being 0-7 this season. All three of their wins have come by 6 points or less to Vanderbilt, East Carolina and UMass. They have only outgained two opponents all year. They outgained UMass by only 6 yards last week and Vanderbilt by 66 yards in the opener.
Tennessee will be the best team that South Carolina has faced this season outside of maybe Texas A&M. And I know the Aggies only beat the Gamecocks by 11 earlier this season, but they weren't taking that game very seriously as they sat several key players with injury, including Myles Garrett and two of their top receivers.
Tennessee gets back linebacker Darrin Kirkland Jr and three offensive linemen who missed most of the Alabama game. The Volunteers realize they are basically still in control of their own destiny in the SEC East with Florida likely to lose again.
They have a cake schedule the rest of the way and should take advantage of it, just like they did last year. The Vols won their final six games last season by an average of 22 points per game. With SC, Tennessee Tech, Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt remaining, another dominant finish can be expected.
The Vols are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. The Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. Tennessee is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games following two more more consecutive losses. Off those two losses to A&M and Alabama, and off their by week, I think the Vols couldn't be in a better spot both mentally and physically for their best performance of the season this week.
Jimmy Boyd
Baylor -3½
I just don’t trust the Longhorns in this spot. I believe the books are being cautious with Baylor given their easy schedule. I know they struggled in their last road game at ISU, but they aren’t going to overlook Texas in this spot.
The Bears are going to come into this one with a chip on their shoulder after last year’s ugly loss. Keep in mind that Texas shutout Baylor 20-0 in the 1st half. It’s the only time the Bears failed to score in the 1st half of a game since 2011. What’s impressive is they almost came back and won, despite turning it over 4 times. Note they did finish with a 479-307 edge in total yards.
You also have to keep in mind that was the final game of the regular season. Oklahoma had already wrapped up the Big 12 title and there was nothing left for Baylor to play for.
Another key factor here is that the Bears catch Texas off a bye week. Their second bye in the last 3 weeks, as they also had one before playing Kansas. This team is fresh and well prepared for what Texas has to offer. Note that the Bears are 6-1 in their last 7 off a bye. At the same time, Texas is coming off a very physical game against Kansas State.
We have seen the Longhorns defense get torched on a regular basis this season. I’m not sure what makes anyone thing Baylor isn’t going to expose them as well. Texas enters with the 102nd ranked pass defense in the country, giving up 263.1 ypg. They are also allowing a staggering 8.7 yards/pass attempt. The Bears are averaging 266.3 ypg through the air and 8 yards per attempt.
Another thing I like with Baylor is the fact they aren’t getting any public attention. Despite the fact that they haven’t lost a game and are ranked in the Top 10. I think we see them come out 100% locked in and wouldn’t be surprised if this turned into a blowout.
Dave Price
Nebraska +9
The Wisconsin Badgers have gone 6-1 ATS through seven games this season. They've been a covering machine, and now they are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers and the betting public because of it. Keep in mind that they covered as underdogs in their four games against teams who were ranked in the Top 10 at the time they played them. But now they're being asked to lay 9 points here to an undefeated Nebraska team that is one of the most improved in the country. And I can't help but think the Badgers are about worn down after the gauntlet of a schedule they've played. Plus they have some injury concerns here as leading tackler Jack Cichy is out for the season after suffering a pectoral injury against Iowa last week. Also, NT Olive Sagapolu is expected to miss this game with an arm injury. They are very think in the front seven right now due to attrition from these injuries. I just think this game is going to be decided by a touchdown or less either way, so there's value with the road dog Huskers here.
Sleepyj
Ohio St. -27
I'm sure the conversation from HC Urban Meyer to his team was we have been here before. That's very true and I'm sure the other conversation was about how it would be a big help to come out of this home game with a big blowout winner...Style points matter in some cases, but they matter more with the high profile teams...Ohio St should have no issue bouncing back here at home today...Northwestern doesn't have the type of offense IMO to really factor against a hostile crowd and determined Ohio St team....Northwestern pass offense is not good at all and I expect the Buckeyes to be throwing a ton in this game. The total is set right now at 51.5/52....I won't be surprised one bit if Meyer and Ohio St responds in a big way....45-7 Final, right on point with the total.