Bruce Marshall
North Texas +3.5
Under-the-radar go-with team deluxe, no spread Ls since opening loss (and even that was competitive) vs. SMU, plus SU wins as a double-digit dog its last two games vs. Marshall and Army! Mean Green can run and QB Fine is maturing rapidly, and team could soon be bowl-eligible. Heady stuff for Mean Green. Defense impressed vs. Army, too, swarming and quick-pursuing, and should be able to somewhat bottle up dancing Dalton Sturm. UTSA nothing special as UTEP home multi-OT loss confirms. UNT one of these teams that needs to be ridden as long as it keeps covering.
Jimmy Moore
Oklahoma St +3.5
Sorry but I am just not sold yet on the Mountaineers. I know they are 6-0 SU this season but they are a lousy 1-5 ATS on the road with revenge in a conference game and they are only 4-7 ATS as road favorites. Oklahoma State is a tough road venue to play at and the Cowboys have scored 131 points over their last 3 games. Have to love the Cowboys as home underdogs here.
Dr Bob
Clemson (-4.5) 28 FLORIDA STATE 27
My math model favors Clemson by 4 points, so the line is fair, but the bye each team had last week is likely to help the home underdog more. Conference home underdogs of 3 points or more, with a .500 or better win percentage, off a bye, and with revenge for a loss the previous season are a solid 108-67-5 ATS over the years while unbeaten (5-0 or better) road favorites of more than 3 points off a bye week are just 9-33-1 ATS (4-21-1 versus a revenging team). I’ll lean with Florida State based on the situation.
TEXAS (+3.5) 34 Baylor 33
I was a bit surprised by my math model favoring Texas by 1.5 points but Baylor’s offense doesn’t look particularly strong when taking into account the defenses that they’ve faced, as the Bears have averaged their 6.6 yards per play (when QB Russell is in the game) against FBS teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average team. The Texas defense has been really inconsistent, but they’ve played relatively better the last two weeks and their average rating is enough to beat an average performance by Baylor. I like the Longhorns plus the points.
WISCONSIN (-9) 30 Nebraska 16
My math model favors Wisconsin by 11 points and Nebraska applies to a negative 11-57-1 ATS situation that is 2-11 ATS when applying to an unbeaten team. The Cornhuskers are no better than they were last season – they’re just winning close games this year while they lost such games last year. This game probably won’t be close.
Florida (-7) 25 Georgia 14
Florida’s defense has played on half this season in which they were not completely dominating (the 2nd half against Tennessee) and the Gators’ D should control this game against a Georgia team with a punchless offense that has been a bit below average on a national scale this season (5.5 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). Florida has allowed an average of just 12 points (6.8 points without the Tennessee game) to a schedule of offenses that are collectively just 0.1 yppl worse than Georgia, and I don’t see the Bulldogs having too many scoring chances in this game. It would take a few big runs by Georgia’s breakaway back Nick Chubb, but Chubb is not finding the holes like he did last season (just 5.1 ypr, which is mediocre).
Florida is no juggernaut on offense either (also 0.1 yppl worse than average with Del Rio at quarterback) and Georgia’s defense is solid (0.3 yppl better than average), but the Gators should score a decent number of points due to great field position set up by their defense and superior special teams. My model favors Florida by 11 in a low scoring game.
Tennessee (-14) 30 SOUTH CAROLINA 20
I would have taken South Carolina as a Best Bet at this number if Perry Orth were starting at quarterback for the Gamecocks, but it will be freshman Jake Bentley instead. Bentley’s numbers from his first start last week look good (65% completions and 6.8 yards per pass play). but they’re actually not given that he was facing a U Mass defense that would allow 8.2 yppp on the road to an average FBS quarterback. But, my math model still likes South Carolina to cover.
Michigan (-24.5) 38 MICHIGAN STATE 10
My math model favors Michigan by 26 points, so the line move from the opening number of 20 points was certainly justified. I’m going to take Michigan by a full 4 touchdowns, as the the Wolverines apply to a 78-21-1 ATS huge favorite situation (10-2 when applying to road favorites of more than 21 points), and favorites of 21 points or more with revenge against a conference opponent for a loss the previous season have been pretty good over the years (86-61-3 ATS).
Washington (-10.5) 30 UTAH 24
I only used the stats of Washington’s starters in my math model for this projection and I’m surprised that the math favors Utah to keep it this close. I was also surprised by how well Utah’s offense played last week against a very good UCLA defense in a 52-45 win and the running of Joe Williams, who decided to come out of retirement a couple of weeks ago has helped the Utes’ attack (he has 179 yards against Oregon State and 332 yards last week against the Bruins). I can certainly see Washington winning this game 31-14 but I’ll stick with the math model an favor the Utes to keep it close on their home field.
Brad Wilton
The Owls opened the season with a win over Southern Illinois, but since that victory it has been loss after loss on the season. 6 of them in a row in fact, and just one cover with the points.
Look for Florida Atlantic to get romped in this home game against a Western Kentucky team that has won their last pair, including a 59-24 rout of Old Dominion their last time out. Coach Jeff Brohm's team has scored 44 or more in each of their last 4 games, and they have been able to cover the spread in 4 of their last 6 conference road games.
Florida Atlantic did have last week off, but more often than not this season in the college ranks, teams playing off the bye have come out very sluggish.
Last season the Hilltoppers won a 35-19 decision at home, but they were listed as the -25 1/2 point favorite in that one and failed to cover. Since the Owls have been held to 23 points or less in 4 of their last 6, I will look for the high-scoring 'Toppers to get on top of this big impost before the day is over.
Lay it with Western Kentucky.
4* WESTERN KENTUCKY
Brett Atkins
My Saturday comp play could very well big the biggest blowout on the board in college football.
Back Oklahoma to roll in a big way from the get-go in their home game against Kansas.
Poor Kansas, the Jayhawks own just one outright win on the year, and it hasn't been much better against the spread, as KU is just 2-6 against the spread this season.
Oklahoma has had little issue in this series, as they have won the last pair of meetings by a combined 106-14, and the Sooners have also covered in 3 of the last 4 series meetings.
The Sooners offense has racked up an average of over 50 points per game their last 4 times out, and they are facing a Kansas team that has failed all 4 on the road this season, and are just 2-12-1 now as the road pup since the 2014 season.
Boomer Sooner all day long in Norman on Saturday!
1* OKLAHOMA
Brad Wilton
They fumbled the ball on the goal line in the final minute of play last weekend at Toledo to cost me a premium play, but this weekend I will come right back with Central Michigan as the home favorite to get me the money against Kent State.
Central is 3-1 at home this season straight up, while Kent State comes to Mt. Pleasant having dropped their last pair of games and 4 of their last 5 straight up as well.
The Chippewas won last season's meeting 27-14 at Kent as the road favorite, as Central Michigan is now on a 3-1 straight up and against the spread series roll.
Central Michigan is at 5-3 for the year, and are looking to keep themselves in line for a second straight bowl trip under coach John Bonamego. Look for the Chipps to pull away at home against the Golden Flashes.
CMU over Kent State on Saturday.
3* CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Chris Jordan
My first free play for Saturday is going to be on College Football Playoff hopeful West Virginia, as I'm laying the points on the road in Stillwater against Oklahoma State.
What's not to like about West Virginia's defense?
Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson has been steady on this unit all season, keeping his troops in order and ready for every challenge, each week. I was actually surprised to see how well this unit has been, given the number of starters it lost.
But No. 10 West Virginia (6–0) has allowed an average of 14.3 points in its first three conference games using s 3-3-5 set that has quarterbacks wondering who is coming from where, and keeping them second-guessing themselves. The Mountaineers execute whether they're dropping eight or bringing five rushers, and it doesn't appear any offensive line can stop them.
On the other side of the ball, the Mountaineers boast a balance that is hard to slow, with 1,821 passing yards and 1,239 rushing. The strength is by airing it out, but with West Virginia able to turn to the rushing game, that will help today on the road, where quarterback Skyler Howard has performed worse than he has at home.
Oklahoma State will be able to score points and this game has shootout potential, but it's West Virginia's defense that is going to get that one big stop that will bring a halt to the Cowboys' upset plans.
Take the road team.
4* WEST VIRGINIA
My late freebie is on the Arizona State Sun Devils plus the points in Eugene, against the Oregon Ducks. I don't get it, quite frankly, how the quackers can go from one of the biggest shocking disappointments in the Pac 12, to laying double digits to a game ASU team that should be able to keep it close. Makes no sense, gambling rarely does, but I'm taking a shot with the road pup in this one.
Oregon is 2-5 this season, and comes in mired in a five-game losing streak. The Ducks have dropped games to Nebraska, Colorado, Washington State, Washington, and most recently, Cal. Admittedly, the Ducks forced Cal into double overtime, and that was a surprise, but I have to wonder if the disappointment of that loss did them in for the rest of the season.
Meanwhile, Arizona State arrives mired in a 1-3 slide after opening the season 4-0. The Devils have dropped games against USC, Colorado and Washington State, but might be poised to steal this one, even on the road.
Oregon has won the last nine games against Arizona State, including last year’s 61-55 final in Tempe. Revenge would be bittersweet, and could set the Devils on a season-ending run that would place them in a better bowl than it appears to be headed now.
I've always been a proponent of this ASU defense, and since the Ducks were just torched by the Golden Bears for 52 points, I do believe we side with the Sun Devils' stop unit.
Arizona State will keep it close with key defensive stops. I'm not so sure the Sun Devils will be able to keep pace down the stretch, but it will stay within double digits.
Road dog cover.
4* ARIZONA STATE
Eric Schroeder
Quietly, one of the best college football rivalries is renewed today, as the Georgia Bulldogs meet the Florida Gators. And while I get why the Gators are laying the points they are, I'm always looking at Georgia in this game.
Fact is, despite it being a down year for the Bulldogs, this game still has major SEC East title implications.
Try to follow me here...
If the Gators win the rest of their games, they will represent the East in the SEC Championship in Atlanta. A loss, and Florida will need help from Tennessee, which owns the tiebreaker over the Gators.
Now, though Georgia has struggled this season, it always gets up for this game, and it would absolutely love to beat the Gators and potentially take a division championship away from its arch-rival.
While Mark Richt is having a dickens of a time in his first year at Miami, Fla., the Kirby Smart-era has been tough in Athens. There is no consistency in the offense, and the defense has been sloppy. Nothing has gone right. But this is one of these teams, in one of those games, where you end up asking yourself: "where has this team been all season?"
This is the rivalry game that sparks a team like Georgia, and could shock some people. The Bulldogs know a win here can salvage the season a bit, and don't underestimate the fact the Gators could look past Georgia in this one. Florida has a real tough stretch from here, with tougher games. So the Gators may be thinking 'once we get past this Georgia team we can focus on the better teams,' but that's not a good way to think.
I'm predicting the Bulldogs' defense shows up and helps them keep it close in a low-scoring battle.
Take the underdog.
4* GEORGIA
Bob Valentino
It's been quite some time since the Wyoming Cowboys played football in December. By then, in the past, people in Laramie are getting hyped up for the Pokes on the hardwood - not the gridiron. But with certain bowl officials in town to watch the Cowboys host the nationally ranked Boise State Broncos tonight, there is a lot of excitement for this team.
Put it this way, if Wyoming - a 14.5-point underdog - can figure out a way to upset Boise State, the entire landscape of the Mountain West would change. And the Cowboys would suddenly be attractive to several bowl executives.
The surprising Cowboys and undefeated Broncos are knotted atop the Mountain West’s Mountain Division with 3-0 records, while San Diego State leads the West Division at 4-0 after last night's blowout win at Utah State.
While it may seem impossible to knock off the mighty Broncos, make note it took a lot for them to get past BYU last Thursday, and they're not all that invincible. Since opening the season 2-2, Wyoming has won three straight and two of those victories were on the road against Colorado State and Nevada. Now it is at home, and this team is hard to knock off in Laramie.
The Wyoming fans are some of the best in college athletics, and you best believe the stadium will be rocking tonight.
Look for the Pokes to bring the heat on defense, and pressure the ball as much as they can, forcing mistakes. They may even hold a lead in the second half and put a legit scare into Boise State.
I'm taking the home dog here.
4* WYOMING
Chase Diamond
Hawks vs. 76ers
Play: 76ers +7½
This game has the 1-0 Hawks at the 0-1 Sixers. I was impressed in the Sixers first game against the Thunder they are now well rested and motivated to win this game and getting 7.5 I think is very generous as this team has some nice young talent. The Hawks have never been a great road team. Last time these teams met the Hawks won buy almost 40 last season. Home dogs of more than 2 points are 92% ATS since 1990 off a home loss in their first game of the season as long as it was a home loss to start if their opponent is off a straight-up win which the Hawks are having beat the Wizards at home 114-99.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +5½ over WINNIPEG
The powers that be have turned the once highly entertaining CFL game into a flag fest that is no longer watchable. It is not unusual to see a game with as many as 25 to 30 flags thrown. The point is that the in-game variances that occur become a much bigger factor with all these subjective calls, which is why we have slowed way down in our selections for the CFL. However, we are not going to ignore a strong play and if the in-game variances work against us, so be it.
Winnipeg is headed to the playoffs for sure. After starting the year 1-4, the Blue Bombers have remarkably won nine of its past 11 games. However, they rarely outplay the opposition and have relied too heavily on luck and bounces to get by. What is more incredible than Winnipeg winning nine of 11 is that they have only out-gained one opponent over that span. That opponent was Saskatchewan. Winnipeg has been out-gained by Toronto, not once but twice over that span. They were out-gained by 168 yards to B.C., yet somehow managed to win by two points. It’s simple math that when you lose the time of possession and get out-gained every single week, you are not supposed to keep winning and so the Bombers charmed life is about to come crashing down. We’re betting that occurs this week.
By contrast, Ottawa has out-gained its last five opponents and four of those were by 80 yards or more. The Redblacks are 1-2 over their past three games but all three have been decided by three points or less. We could easily be discussing an Ottawa team that has reeled off three in a row and that is peaking. Truth is, the Redblacks have not reeled off three in a row but they are peaking at precisely the right time with the playoffs just around the corner. Ottawa had a similar plight last season in which it won its final four games before the playoffs and subsequently defeated Hamilton in the East final before losing in the Grey Cup to Edmonton. They are primed to follow a similar path this year and it begins here with a victory in Winnipeg against a very beatable squad. The points are big insurance that we are thrilled to be taking back.
Power Sports
Clemson vs. Florida State
Pick: Florida State
The idea of Florida State being an underdog, at home no less, is pretty insane. Note that from 2012-14, not one time did the Seminoles take the field getting points. It happened once last year, at Clemson, and they lost 23-13 w/ the game falling right on the number (+10). Jimbo Fisher's team has been a dog already once this year & that turned out well as they beat Miami, 20-19 down in Coral Gables. This, however, is a whole different ballgame. They are catching points in Talahassee for the first time since 2011, which is the only time it's happened during Jimbo Fisher's tenure. That game saw the 'Noles lose to #1 Oklahoma, 23-13, but I foresee a different outcome Saturday night.
Now that we've established the history involved here, let's talk about the opponent. For the second year in a row, Clemson is unbeaten when taking on FSU. Last year, the Tigers came in ranked #3 in the country en route to a trip to the Championship Game. While they did win 23-13 in Death Valley, note that they trailed early (10-3) and it was a tie game (13-13) entering the fourth quarter. This year's Tigers team just doesn't seem quite as strong. Two weeks ago, they were "tooth and nail" w/ NC State, needing OT to win that game. They have had a lot of good fortune go their way as in four wins by a TD or less. Last year, they were 4-1 SU in that department. Eventually, like last year's Title Game, they have to lose one of these.
FSU came into the season w/ legit national title aspirations, but those were doused w/ a pair of early losses. One was the absolute embarrassment in Louisville, by a score of 63-20. The other was a game where they gained nearly 600 total yds of offense, but lost on a last second FG to North Carolina. They have since won B2B games and while they were both close. note that they outgained Wake Forest 442-252, so it was more one-sided than the 17-6 final indicates. I point to the fact that Clemson has had exactly ONE win streak in the history of this rivalry ('05-'07). Other than that, they have never beaten Florida State consecutive years. I would not be shocked to see an outright upset here as some of the nation's remaining unbeatens are due to fall.
Nelly'
Eastern Michigan - over Miami, OH
Getting to bowl eligibility will be a big accomplishment for Eastern Michigan who currently is a game short of the mark. In recent weeks the Eagles have given MAC contenders Toledo and Western Michigan tough games and September wins over Charlotte and Wyoming are looking better and better. After a competitive 0-6 start Miami has won back-to-back games and the Redhawks have been a formidable defensive team. Miami is very limited on offense however and after losing four games while out-gaining their foe early in the season the Redhawks have been out-gained in both wins the past two weeks. Miami has won eight in a row in this series but this looks like a great opportunity for the Eagles at home. Miami is gaining just 3.0 yards per rush this season with only 55 percent completions in the passing attack. Both teams have formidable rush defenses but Miami isn't going to be able to take advantage of a suspect pass defense for the Eagles and Eastern Michigan has out-thrown five of its last six foes. Miami scored 40 points last week but Bowling Green has featured the MAC's worst defense and turnovers played a big role. Facing a second straight road test after beating last season's conference champion looks like a challenging set-up and the Redhawks were +11.5 at Akron a few weeks ago with it hard to make a case that Akron is 4-5 points stronger than Eastern Michigan.
ASA
Wake Forest -6.5
This is a huge home game for Wake as they become bowl eligible with a win. That’s a big deal for a team that doesn’t have a single player that has ever been to a bowl game. They will not only be motivated in this game, but they should be very well rested and prepared. The Deacs had last week off which is ideal when facing an Army offense that they don’t see very often. The Cadets are 4-3 on the season but have really faltered after a decent start. Army has lost 3 of their last 4 games with their only win during that stretch coming vs Lafayette. Two of those three losses were to Buffalo and North Texas, games in which Army was a double digit favorite. That tells you this team is struggling right now. Wake should be ready for Army’s triple option as they’ve had extra time off AND they’ve faced 4 consecutive seasons. The Demon Deacon defense matches up nicely here as they allow just 119 YPG rushing on only 3.4 YPC. We like a much improved Wake Forest team to win this one by double digits.
The Real Animal
Memphis/Tulsa Over 73.5
I got a kick out of this next one. The Memphis/Navy game had 70 points despite Navy throwing just four times. Meanwhile the Tulsa/Tulane game had 77 points with the Green Wave hitting 3-of-19 for 37 yards. I’m going to assume each opponent tomorrow will certainly throw better than last week’s challenge for both Tulsa and Memphis. The Tigers surrendered 447 rushing yards to Army and it’s interesting to note that Tulsa has had better than 300 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Tulsa allowed 243 or more passing yards in four straight before meeting Tulane. Memphis can certainly throw. They have had four games of at least 300 passing yards this year. The final last year at Tulsa was 66-42 with a halftime score of 35-21.