Free Picks for Saturday, October 7th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Doc's Sports
Las Vegas / Arizona Under 5.5
The Vegas Golden Knights are in their inaugural season in what is the NHL's first expansion team since 2000 (Columbus and Minnesota). The Knights are building for the future, and their expansion draft made that abundantly clear. They didn't draft to win now. They did, however, select a decent collection of defensemen along with an above-average goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury. That will allow them to stick around in many contests and maybe steal a few games they don't deserve here and there. As a result, I expect to see some low-scoring games involving Vegas. On Saturday they'll go up against a Coyotes team that also improved their defense in the off-season. The biggest coup was acquiring goaltender Antii Raanta from the New York Rangers. Raanta has been one of the elite backup goalies in recent years and deserves a shot to start. He's going to stand on his head and steal some games for Arizona as well. It's too early to get a great pulse on every team in the league, but I'm confident that both of these teams will prefer a conservative style that allows their defense to dictate the pace.
Jason Sharpe
Michigan State (+10) over Michigan
This looks like it's going to be a hard hitting, low-scoring affair between these two in-state rivals. These two teams don't like each other. This rivalry means a little more to the Michigan State Spartans, and the fact that MSU has covered the point spread in each of their last 9 head-to-head battles is evidence of that. You have to look towards the underdog in a game like this one, especially when the dog is getting double-digit points in the spread and the total is only around 41 points overall. The Wolverines struggle to score, and they have had problems covering these bigger spreads of late, going just 2-7 ATS the last 9 times they've been favored by a touchdown or more. Take Michigan State plus the points here.
Alan Harris
Texas Tech / Kansas Over 79.5
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Texas Tech Red Raiders hit the road to take on the Kansas Jayhawks at Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, KS, on Saturday afternoon. The Red Raiders have posted a 4-1 record to the over in their last five games following a straight up loss and they have gone an excellent 19-8 to the over in their last 27 games played in the month of October. The Jayhawks have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here as they have gone a perfect 4-0 to the over in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home and they have that same 4-0 record to the over in their last four games following a game where they allowed 40 points or more. They have also gone over the number in four straight games versus a team with a winning record and they are 4-1 to the over in their last five Big 12 games. Throw in the fact that Kansas is also an impressive 8-3 to the over in their last 11 games following a bye week while Texas Tech is 5-2 to the over in their last seven road games and that's where we'll have our play as we expect both teams to struggle to get defensive stops in Lawrence on Saturday afternoon.
Strike Point Sports
Northwestern (+14.5) over Penn State
We hit a free play winner last week with the Giants sneaking under the spread. This is a good spot for Northwestern and a good spot to fade Penn State. The Nittany Lions have an outstanding offense, but they have not proven themselves on the road thus far this season. Penn State got a win at Iowa, but it was by a measly two points, 21-19. PSU has only been on the road once, and they will struggle to pull away in this one just as they did in Iowa. Northwestern wants to try and get a win in front of their home fans as this game is sandwiched between road games at Wisconsin and Maryland. Yes, on paper this is a mismatch, but in the end the Wildcats will keep this game closer than the line suggests.
Harry Bondi
Syracuse -3 over Pittsburgh
Orangemen will get their revenge in a rematch of one of 2016’s most memorable games. Pittsburgh beat Syracuse 76-61 last year in a game in which both offenses topped 600 years, very little defense was played and the scoreboard operator had to be treated for exhaustion! It was the easily the highest combined score by two teams in 2016 and this year’s game will also feature a lot of scoring as both teams feature hot QB’s. The difference is that Syracuse’s Eric Dungey has looked good against solid defenses, including NC State’s last week when he was 25 of 33 for 385 yards. Southern Cal transfer Max Browne looked good for Pitt last week but it was against a weak Rice defense that is allowing 40 ppg. Panthers defense has also been a sieve against the 3 quality teams they have faced allowing 43 ppg. Pittsburgh just 2-8 ATS their last 10 games and get demolished in the Dome.
DAVE COKIN
SAN DIEGO ST AT UNLV
PLAY: UNLV +10
The Rebels are improving. I’m willing to throw out the bizarre outright loss to Howard. Good performance at Idaho, lots of fight and they actually won the second half at Ohio State and a good win over San Jose State since.
San Diego State is catching all kinds of good breaks. Just my opinion, but I don’t think they’d have beaten Air Force had it not been for a conveniently timed weather delay and the Aztecs were definitely outplayed last week at home by Northern Illinois. SDSU could overlook the Rebels with a key game against Boise State on deck.
There’s also an intangible in play here. The tragic events here in Las Vegas are going to have this football team very inspired on Saturday and I think we’re going to get a huge effort from the home team. I don’t know if the Rebels have enough to pull the upset but I like UNLV to battle and I will back them taking double digits.
Scott Spreitzer
Kent State at Northern Illinois
Pick: Northern Illinois -23.5
We've backed the Huskies twice this season already, cashing with NIU when they knocked off Nebraska, and covering again last week when they hung the number against undefeated San Diego State. The Huskies could have beaten the Aztecs outright, losing the game thanks to an 83-yard pick-6 when they had a chance to go up 21-14, and a 96-yard kickoff return for a TD to start the game. The Huskies gained 23 first downs to 10 for SDSU and out-gained the Aztecs 429-263! This week, NIU bounces back against Kent State. The Flashes are horrible on both sides of the football, including offense where they have no semblance of a passing game and a mediocre ground game. NIU is a beast on the defensive side of the football and should slam the door on their MAC opponent. Kent State ranks 102nd against the pass, 117th defending the run, 119th in total yards allowed per game, and 111th in scoring defense. They have failed to cover six of their last seven games, while NIU will be aiming for their 7th straight cover. The Huskies are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
DAVE COKIN
VIRGINIA TECH AT BOSTON COLLEGE
PLAY: VIRGINIA TECH -16.5
The Hokies showed they aren’t quite ready to be labeled as an elite team as they got clocked at home last week vs. Clemson. I thought Virginia Tech did some things well against the powerful Tigers. But -3 net turnovers against a monster of tat caliber is going to spell almost certain defeat, and that was the case last Saturday for the Hokies.
The good news is Virginia Tech should bounce back with little problem against Boston College. The Eagles aren’t doing anything especially well. The rush defense has at times been almost non-existent. The quarterback play, which has been a major issue for this team for way too long, remains thoroughly mediocre.
I really don’t see how this game is close if the Hokies arrive with the right mindset. That’s my main concern, actually, as last week’s game with Clemson was enormous and getting revved up to face BC could be a challenge. If the Hokies are sloppy, perhaps BC can hang in, but on paper this game is a blowout.
One interesting side note involves the coaches. V-Tech head coach Justin Fuente’s name is already coming up as a potential replacement at Tennessee if (when) Butch Jones gets shown the door. Meanwhile, BC head honcho Steve Addazio was reportedly on the hot seat coming into this season, and if those rumors were holding any water, it’s safe to say things haven’t improved.
Bottom line here is that if Virginia Tech shows up ready to play and gets out to an early lead, this could get ugly. I’d look to side with the favored Hokies here.
Ray Monohan
Red Sox vs. Astros
Play: Under 8
We saw both starters struggle at times in Game 1 of this series, but here we should see a much more grind it out kind of game.
Houston throws one ace and leads it right into another. Dallas Keuchel will get the ball for the Astros and he's been dominant at home this season. He enters play 6-2 with just a 1.64 ERA this year.
On the flip side of things, Drew Pomeranz finished the season on a high note. Pomeranz won 3 of his last 4 decisions and allowed 2 runs or less in his final four appearances. Right now, he's pitching with a lot of confidence and has stepped up in big roles this season when the Red Sox needed him.
Some trends to note. Under is 6-1 in Keuchels last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 13-3 in Hernandezs last 16 games behind home plate.
Teddy Covers
Memphis vs. Connecticut
Play: Over 72
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Things have not broken right for Memphis in the early going. The Tigers played their opening game against Louisiana-Monroe in the midst of the remnants of Hurricane Harvey – a torrential downpour throughout most of the contest. They had to cancel their game the next week because of Hurricane Irma in Florida. Following the wild upset win over UCLA, the Tigers looked flat against Southern Illinois the following week. Last week, facing UCF, the Tigers got whipped, turning the ball over four times on offense while allowing more than 600 yards on defense.
Make no mistake about it – Memphis is loaded with the type of skill position talent that UConn can’t cover. With QB Riley Ferguson returning for his senior year, 103 career starts back on the offensive line and the likes of RB’s Darrell Henderson and Patrick Taylor (combined more than 6.5 yards per carry) WR’s Anthony Miller, Phil Mayhue and Tony Pollard (37 catches between them) and TE Joey Magnifico (2nd leading receiver), this team is flat out loaded with weapons. Memphis averaged 39 points per game last year and 40 ppg in 2015. They hung 41 on UConn the last time these teams met, and there’s little reason to think the Tigers won’t approach or exceed 40 this time around.
UConn’s defense has been horrific this season. Head coach Randy Edsall called out his team’s toughness prior to the Huskies visit to SMU last Saturday: “Sometimes guys either have it or they don’t. I mean, that’s ‘here,'” Edsall said, pointing to his chest. “That’s what you’ve got in here, and it shows up real quick in this sport. If you’re not a physically tough kid, this isn’t the sport you should play.” The end result? One week after allowing 596 yards and 41 points to East Carolina, last week, the Huskies allowed 49 points and 498 yards to the Mustangs. This is not a defense primed for a dramatic improvement anytime soon.
That leaves us with only one question: Can UConn trade points with a potent offense? If the Huskies can’t, the right play here is on Memphis. If the Huskies can, the better play would probably be on the Over. UConn has a returning senior starter at QB in Bryant Sherriffs, who has completed 69% of his passes so far with an 8:2 TD-INT ratio. Five different receivers have caught a TD pass of 45 yards or longer; an offense showing legit big play ability after averaging a woeful 15 points per game last year. They’re playing much faster than last year in coordinator Rhett Lashlee’s first season running the offense, and they’re facing a defense that has shown repeated vulnerability. Expect enough offense from the Huskies to keep this game relatively competitive….and to send it flying Over the total. Expect a shootout.
Jim Feist
Golden Knights at Stars
Pick: Stars -1.5
The Vegas Golden Knights begin their first season in the NHL. The showpiece of the franchise is goalie Marc-Andre Fluery. Fluery has a two your contract and looks to help this young team along in their early years. During the preseason, the Knights scored quite frequently wit 26 goals in their six games. However, they also gave up 24 goals during the preseason. The over has been a great play at Dallas, with 17 of their last 21 games at home going over. I look for Dallas to get at least four goals here if not more. If you can play the goal and half here with the home team, that's the play.
Joe Everett
Eastern Michigan / Toledo Over 61
Chris Creighton has built a strong program in Ypsilanti and a lot of that is thanks to their leaders on offense at quarterback in senior Brogan Roback and his leading receiver the last two years senior wideout Sergio Bailey. The Eagles can attack in a number of ways with an offense that returns 26 lettermen, a dynamic runningback in Shaq Vann and a spread passing game that can exploit holes in any defense. The Toledo defense has its share of holes allowing 35 points per game and coughing up 677 rushing yards in their last two games combined. The Rockets can’t rush the passer with just six sacks through five games and up against an experienced passer in Roback, the Eagles will have success moving the ball in this game.
The Rockets have an outstanding duo with senior quarterback Logan Woodside and senior wide receiver Cody Thompson, who have combined for 500-plus yards and four scores to start the year. Woodside has a 11-1 touchdown to interception ratio and sophomore Diontae Johnson has been a revelation with five touchdowns to start the year. As always, the Toledo offense is based off of the run and while all conference back Kareem Hunt is now leading the NFL in rushing, there hasn’t been much dropoff in production at runningback with Terry Swanson rushing for five touchdowns in just four games. The Rockets have one of the more complete offenses in the entire conference but this Eagles defense has their top seven tacklers back from last year and they have limited opponents to 17.8 per game despite a number of suspect offenses like Charlotte, Rutgers and Kentucky.
This series has trended toward the OVER with five of the last six games between these two teams going to the OVER and although all four of Eastern Michigan’s games have gone UNDER this year, the pace of Toledo will force the Eagles into a standard MAC shootout with the team to score last likely pulling off the win. The line has gone from 57½ to 61 so we’re chasing the move and losing some line value but this game looks like a 38-35 final with the Rockets getting the job done, potentially in extended play here.
Air Force / Navy Over 50½
This is one of the best matchups in college football just outside of Army vs Navy. Having two service academies with almost identical offenses go after each other always makes for great entertainment but what should always stand out about triple option heavy run attacks is that they always stay ahead of the chains. Navy is led by junior Zach Abey at quarterback. He leads the team in passing and rushing with ten total touchdowns on the year and while he is not an accomplished passer, he has a career average of 5.6 yards per carry. The Midshipmen will tear through this Air Force 3-4 defense that only returns one starter from last season and has given up 28.2 points per game but just gave up 363 rushing yards to New Mexico last week.
It’s as if these two teams are mirror images of each other and that’s why they both average 34 points per game with Navy really turning it on in their last two games with 990 rushing yards combined against Cincinnati and Tulsa. Air Force is no slouch with 458 combined yards on the ground in their last two games featuring dual threat quarterback Arion Worthman who is a proven passing threat that has a six to one touchdown to interception ratio on top of being able to put a move on defenders in space. The Mids just gave up 229 yards to Tulsa and with the success the Falcons have had, look for Air Force to pull out all the stops here.
The Falcons have gone 3-1 to the OVER this year and while the Mids are just 1-3 on the OVER, Navy will keep pace with Air Force in a score fest in this one. This number has actually dropped a tad from 52½ to 51 and to be honest, this is a game I’d wait until game time and fire off on the OVER which should finish in the 41-38 range.
Colorado St / Utah St Over 62½
The Rams run multiple fronts and throw a number of personnel packages at defenses to keep them on their toes and create mismatches. The Rams have a senior at quarterback in Nick Stevens, who is fluent in Mike Bobo’s intricate scheme and has thrown for 12 touchdowns on the year. Michael Gallup is clearly a Sunday player and if you have yet to experience his game, this is likely to be a showcase performance from the senior receiver that boasts a 15.4 yards per catch average. The Aggies 3-4 zone defense has yet to face a quality passing offense and with 30-plus points per game allowed, the Rams running game is likely to go ham in this game against a rushing defense that has given up 200-plus yards on the ground in three of their games.
The Aggies have a dual threat at quarterback in senior signal caller Kent Myers and considering the fact that the Rams have given up 145 or more rushing yards in four of their five games this year, Utah State is going to have a lot of success moving the chains with their running game in this contest. Utah State has a phenom at wide receiver in 6’3” junior Ron’Quavion Tarver who has three touchdowns on the year and with the one-two punch of Eltoro Allen and Lajuan Hunt at runningback, the Aggies are going to be able to put points up on the board in this late night contest. The Rams just have a lot of holes in their back half as well having issues stopping the run, so there’s a clear advantage for the Aggies to keep this game close.
This total has actually dropped a tad from 65 to 64 and we’ll gladly take any edge here on a game that features two experienced quarterbacks led by two quality coaching staffs. The Rams have gone 3-2 to the OVER this season, while the Aggies are a perfect 5-0 to the OVER on the year. We’re calling for a 48-31 type of final with the Rams running away in trademark fashion for a late night scoreboard watcher.
Stephen Nover
Fresno St vs. San Jose St
Play: Fresno St -16
San Jose State is an auto-fade for me. The Spartans are a shot team whose first-year coach, Brent Brennan, seems overmatched.
The Spartans are 0-4 SU and ATS the past four weeks losing 56-0 to Texas, 54-16 to Utah, 61-10 to Utah State at home and 41-13 to UNLV this past Saturday. The Spartans have allowed more than 300 yards - in the first half in three of their six games. The Spartans trailed UNLV 35-13 at halftime. The Rebels let up in the second half yet still won by 28 points.
Just two weeks ago, the Spartans were blasted by Utah State as two-point home 'dogs. This was San Jose State's Mountain West Conference opener. Utah State, which lost to Wisconsin and Wake Forest by a combined 85 points, outgained the Spartans by 427 yards and had 20 more first downs.
So in the last two weeks, San Jose State has lost to the spread by a combined 61 points. Here are San Jose State's gory season numbers: The Spartans rank 122nd in scoring averaging 15.8 per game. They rate 124th out of 129 Division I schools in yards allowed and 126th in points given up at 44.5. Counting just their last four games, the Spartans are putting up only 9.7 points a game and 264.5 yards. Against the Rebels this past Saturday, the Spartans committed three turnovers, had seven penalties and a blocked punt.
It's safe to state that San Jose State is beyond brutal. The oddsmaker does recognize this making Fresno State more than a two-touchdown road favorite. Are the Bulldogs strong enough to cover this number even playing such a weak opponent?
My belief is yes. The Bulldogs defeated Nevada, another bad team, 42-21 this past Saturday. That was at home. However, the Bulldogs won by 21 despite not playing especially well turning the ball over a season-high three times and committing eight penalties, their most for the year. Fresno State should play better here especially bolstered by posting its first Mountain West win since 2015.
Marcus McMaryion made his first college start and looked like former Fresno State quarterback Derek Carr. McMaryion completed his first 12 passes, finishing with a 167.07 quarterback rating.
Mostly, though, this handicap is a fade on San Jose State. I'm going to play against the Spartans until they show a pulse, which might not happen again this season.
Ben Burns
Air Force vs. Navy
Play: Navy -7½
I successfully played against these same Falcons last week, using New Mexico as Saturday's complimentary selection. The Lobos would go on to destroy the Falcons by a whopping 56-38 margin. Not all that shocking when considering that this Air Force team lost 12 of its top 13 tacklers from last season. Don't expect the Midshipmen to feel sorry for them.
Down 14-0 out of the gate at Tulsa, Navy also appeared in danger of getting upset last week. However, the Midshipmen responded by scoring 31 straight points, racking up more than 400 yards on the ground.
Now 4-0 for just the third time in the past 38 years, the second time in Coach Niumatalolo's 10-year tenure, the Midshipmen should carry the momentum into this week's big game.
The last four meetings in this series have all been decided by nine or more points. Air Force won by 14 last season and by nine in 2014, after Navy won by 22 in 2015 and by 18 in 2013. In what should ultimately result in another double-digit win, consider laying the points with the revenge-minded Midshipmen.