Doc's Sports
Oregon State vs. USC
Play:Oregon St +34
The Trojans have gone through a gauntlet of a schedule and it finally bit them last Friday in Pullman. Now they have a get well game against a terrible Oregon State team but I just do not believe they will have much motivation to win this game by 40+ points. QB Sam Donald has been far from perfect this year and most of his offensive lineman are banged up. This is not a game you rush players back for. Oregon State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 PAC-12 games. USC is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Dennis Macklin
Army -13½
Perfectly aware that this Army team is a notch below last year and that they've been a classic ticket burner of late (2-9-1 ATS L12) but have no qualms laying less than two touchdowns against an awful Rice team. Army still "doing what it do", rushing the football at 363 per (No.3) and facing the Nations No.3 ranked defense. The Owls best QB is hurt and that has translated into two offensive touchdowns in two weeks, one on a long pass. Rice in revenge .... huh ??? for 31-14 loss at West Point last year where they had the ball for 19:00 minutes. They'll be lucky to have the ball 19 minutes here as they've always struggled against the Cadet option allowing better than 359 yards on the ground in the last four series meetings.
Braxton Myles
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Play: Iowa State +30½
Iowa State's offense struggled in last weeks 17-7 loss to Texas, so I look for them to get back on track this week going down to Norman, Oklahoma. Baylor proved that a team can put up points on this Oklahoma defense last week putting up 41 points against them. ISU comes into this game averaging 32 PPG and I look for them to get back to their running game in this one to take some pressure off of their QB who threw 3 interceptions last week. Oklahoma is 5-4 ATS in games played in Oklahoma against ISU since 1992 and this is one of ISU's strongest teams they have had in awhile in my opinion. Since 1992, the road underdog has covered the spread 40 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 33 times and over the last 3 seasons, the home favorite has covered the spread 6 times, while the road underdog covered the spread 6 times.
Freddy Wills
Tulsa vs. Tulane
Play: Tulsa +5
Tulsa was a premium play last week at +7.5 vs. Navy, and they held a 14-0 early lead and we thought we’d cruise, but a 31-21 final and it was a loss. I feel good about Tulsa this week facing another option offense for the third week in a row.
Tulane runs the option much like New Mexico & Navy, but just not as well ranking 31st in rushing ypc while New Mexico ranked 12th, and Navy ranks 8th. Also they have just 8 red zone trips compared to Navy who has 16, and New Mexico who has 19. They also struggle on third down which is another big key running the option as they have only converted 32%. Tulsa has actually done well defending in the red zone vs. both option teams they just faced allowing only 40% of those trips to result in a TD.
Tulsa’s offense also relies heavily on the run and they have two studs in D’Angelo Brewer and QB Chad President. The last two weeks they went up against run defenses ranked 61st and 53rd. Tulane comes into this game ranking 95th so it’s easily their easiest task of late.
Tulsa has covered 11 of the 12 games in the series and I like their chances to pull the upset or lose by less than 4. 4 a very valuable number here considering Tulsa’s defense in the red zone the last two games against option offenses.
Jack Jones
Minnesota vs. Purdue
Play: Purdue -4
Legendary Purdue head coach Joe Tiller passed away last weekend. He was the all-time winningest coach in school history, and led them to their first Rose Bowl berth since 1967, among many other accomplishments. It's safe to say that he will be greatly missed among Boilermaker fans.
The school plans to honor him during their home game against Minnesota this weekend. You can bet there will be a little extra electricity to the home crowd and the players in this one, desperately wanting to win this game to honor Tiller. I look for a big performance from the Boilermakers Saturday.
Not to mention, the Boilermakers are coming off a much-needed bye week after having to play Louisville, Ohio, Missouri and Michigan in a brutal slate to open the season. They got through that at 2-2 and were competitive in all four games, only losing by 7 to Louisville, and hanging tough with Michigan until late in the fourth quarter. They also beat a good Ohio team 44-21 at home, and throttled Missouri 35-3 on the road.
It's clear that Jeff Brohm was one of the most underrated head coaching hires in the country in the offseason. He has this Purdue offense hitting on all cylinders despite the tough schedule. But more impressive has been the improvement from the defense. The Boilermakers are giving up just 21.7 points per game against teams that are averaging 34.6 points per game, holding them to nearly 13 points per game less than their season averages.
Minnesota hasn't beaten anyone of any significance thus far. They have wins over Buffalo, Oregon State and Middle Tennessee, which was without their starting QB. They finally took a step up in class last week and actually lost at home 24-31 as 13.5-point favorites against a Maryland team that was playing with their third-string quarterback.
The Gophers have played four teams that primarily run the football thus far. Now they'll be up against a team that will spread you out for the first time, and I look for the Boilermakers to find plenty of holes in that Minnesota defense. The Gophers haven't been very good on offense despite playing such a soft schedule, averaging just 368 total yards per game.
I just think the spot really favors Purdue here coming off its bye week and playing for Tiller. The Boilermakers are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with Minnesota. Purdue is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in its previous game. The Boilermakers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.
Jeff Allen
Florida Atlantic vs. Old Dominion
Play: Florida Atlantic -3½
Despite it being on the road, this is an excellent spot for FAU to take care of some business and right some past wrongs. A win here would get the Owls back to .500 (3-3) and with this team improving weekly under Kiffin and three very winnable games on deck (North Texas, WKU, Marshall), FAU could be thinking about going Bowling. Revenge spot here vs. and ODU team in rebuilding mode and averaging just 279 ypg. offense and starting (due to injuries) a 17-year-old true freshman quarterback. The Old Dom defense is actually pretty good but how long will it be beforeFAU wears them down after being on the field for most of the game last two losses to North Carolina and Virginia Tech.
3G-Sports
LSU vs. Florida
Play: LSU +2.5
Ed Orgeron has to remain patient with Danny Etling. He is a solid coach who can get Etling to use his QB talent with throwing the ball. With stout defense and good Oline - Louisiana State is much better then Florida. This is still going to be a dogfight - the Gators are looking at a team that could start to make some legit noise in an already incredibly deep SEC. Does Feleipe Franks have the instinct to know when to take the big chances and when to pull it down, and hold a throw depending upon the games situation? I cannot trust Franks has learned when to pull it back and when to take that chance as his game play verifies. Florida would like to see more of this game progression from their QB. In terms of big game like this, Florida chances to win an important and big matchup like this, fall apart. Gators are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games LSU bounces back with a big win on the road here Saturday afternoon.
Jesse Schule
West Virginia vs. Texas Christian
Pick: West Virginia +12.5
The TCU Horned Frogs stunned the nation with an upset win at Oklahoma State two weeks ago, and they come off a bye week to host BIG12 rivals West Virginia. The Mountaineers lost a close game to Virginia Tech in Week 1, but have bounced back with three straight wins. They've scored over 50 points in all three of those games, and they rank 2nd nationally averaging 48.8 points per game. West Virginia crushed the Horned Frogs in Morgantown last year by a score of 34-10. Kenny Hill threw for just 148 yards on 18-of-31 passing with a TD and an INT in that game. The home team has won by double digits the last two times these teams have met, but prior to that they played three straight games decided by three points or less. The point spread for this game is greater than it had been in any of the previous five meetings in this series. TCU has been costing bettors big bucks as a home favorite, they've only covered the spread once in their last 11 home games.
Will Rogers
Maryland vs. Ohio State
Pick: Ohio State -30
The set-up: Ohio State (4-1, 2-0 in Big Ten) will host Maryland (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio on Saturday. Urban Meyer leads his No. 10 Buckeyes against one of his former assistants for the second week in row, this time around it's D.J. Durkin. This is Durkin's second season at Maryland and the Terps opened the season with a win a shocking 51-41 win Texas (+18) and have also added a 31-24 road win at Minnesota last Saturday (as a two-TD dog), to open Big Ten play. Maryland doesn't appear to be as over-matched as the 6-7 team that was clobbered 62-3 by Ohio State last year. Ohio State is trying to put its 31-16 home loss to Oklahoma behind them, in an effort to climb back into the CFP discussion. Dominating wins over Army, UNLV and Rutgers don't hurt the Buckeyes' chances but also don't help all that much, either.
Maryland: The Terrapins rebounded from a surprising home loss to Central Florida by winning 31-24 at Minnesota last week to open its Big Ten slate. However, let's note that UCF is 3-0 and currently ranked 25th in the latest AP poll. Sophomore Max Bortenschlager completed 18-of-28 passes for 154 yards and two TDs plus also ran for a score against Minnesota in his first start after the Terrapins’ top two quarterbacks, Kasim Hill and Tyrrell Pigrome, went down with season-ending knee injuries. RB Ty Johnson has 411 rushing yards on 8.9 YPC with four TDs, leading a ground game that averages 233.5 YPG (24th) on 5.7 YPC with 12 scores. Defensively, Maryland is allowing 30.0 PPG (92nd) and will be severely tested by an Ohio State offense which has scored 148 points over the last three games since the loss to Oklahoma!
Ohio State: J.T. Barrett 'laid an egg' against Oklahoma but has comlalted 71.2 percent for 765 yards with 10 TDs (no INTs over 73 attempts) , while adding 125 rushing yards and another TD in OSU's three-game winning streak. Freshman RB Dobbins has 573 yards (7.6 YPC) and three TDs on the season, leading a ground game accounting for 241.0 YPG (20th). The defense is holding opponents to 160.0 YPG (16) on 335.6 YPG (34th).
The pick: Barrett has been outstanding the last three games and on the season, has 13 TD passes spread around over nine different players. Freshman J.K. Dobbins has been terrific and now Mike Weber, who ran for 1069 yards last year on 6.0 YP is back, running for three scores against Rutgers after struggling with hamstring issues. The Ohio State defense has allowed fewer than 100 passing yards in each of the last three games, after averaging 403 in the team's first two. With all due respect to Bortenschlager, he is the team's third-team QB. I'll note that Ohio State is just 6-12 its last 18 laying more than 21 points but Meyer's Ohio State teams have a 17-1 SU record in October since 2012. He's shown no mercy against ex-assistant Chris Ash, beating Rutgers 56-0 and 54-0. He took Durkin's Maryland team 'to the woodshed' last year (62-3) and I'll lay the points, here.
Marc Lawrence
Stanford vs. Utah
Pick: Utah -115
Edges - Utes: 3-0 ATS last three games in this series; and 6-2 ATS following a SU road favorite win… Cardinal 445-yard defense ranks No. 106 in the nation. With the undefeated Utes 7-2 ATS as dogs with rest under Kyle Whittingham, we recommend a 1* play in Utah.
Bruce Marshall
So Mississippi at Tex San Antonio
Pick: Tex San Antonio
Maybe one of the stealth teams of the season, solid on both sides of the line of scrimmage, good speed on defense to disrupt, and an underrated playmaker QB in Dalton Sturm, completing 76% this season in three games with 6 TDP and no picks. Plus Roadrunners have been covering numbers, 7-1 last 8 vs. FBS-level foes for Frank Wilson, who might be getting noticed by some bigger school, Meanwhile for USM the bad loss last week vs. Mean Green looks ominous, as Golden Eagles caved right about this same time last season, USM "D" was shredded by UNT QB Fine last week, and Hopson's juco QB QB Griggs appears to be faltering, under 50% completions over last two vs. ULM & UNT.
Tony Finn
Wisconsin at Nebraska
Play: Wisconsin -11
Late October of last season both teams were nationally ranked and met in Madison. The Badgers were 6-2 overall and 3-2 in conference play. Nebraska was 7-1 and 4-1 in the division standings. In a game won by the Badgers, in overtime, Dare Ogunbowale scored on an 11-yard run. The touchdown lifted No. 11 Wisconsin over visiting No. 7 Nebraska by a 23-17 margin. It was the Badgers third 2016 win over a top-10 team.
Wisconsin’s 2017 market value took a bit of a hit in the Badgers’ closely contested 33-24 win over Northwestern last Saturday. Nebraska showed some growth with their 28-6 victory over young Illinois.
Whiskey head coach Paul Chryst and his staff are a defensive minded group. They promote defense before offense and despite defeating Northwestern last Saturday the staff was upset about the 14 second-half points their squad allowed. In all, Wisconsin has allowed a total of 14 second-half points in four wins this season. However, those two touchdowns are the only second half points against the stop-unit over the first four games this season.
"Our defense did really good and kept us in the game, really gave us a chance," Chryst said in the post-game presser. "They [defense] did a tremendous job on pass rush, a good job of mixing it up and I thought it was a good plan."
The most notable defensive statistic was the Badgers season high eight sacks. Including the large number of sacks and quarterback pressures also came 11 tackles for loss. The Badgers held the Wildcats senior running back Justin Jackson to 26 yards on nine carries. Jackson entered the game with an 82.7 yards-per-game average.
Offensively the Badgers scored 26 second-half points against a good Pat Fitzgerald Northwestern defense. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook and Chryst game-planned to stretch the field in the first half versus the Wildcats defense. While the offense didn't have much success in the first 30 minutes with their long passing game Hornibrook connected early in the third quarter. The Badgers completed a 61-yard play-action pass to sophomore wide receiver Quintez Cephus into the Wildcats' red-zone. Running back Jonathan Taylor followed the long completion with an 11-yard score on the next play to give Wisconsin a 14-10 advantage in which they never relinquished.
Hornibrook completed 11 of 20 passes for 197 yards, with one touchdown and two interceptions. While Hornibrook's numbers were not over-the-top spectacular he was without senior tight end Troy Fumagalli (leg) due to injury. Fumagalli was the team leader in catches (15) and receiving yards (236) entering the game against Northwestern.
Nebraska quarterback Tanner Lee recorded his best game of the season in the team’s road win over Illinois. Lee threw three touchdowns and no interceptions but was nearly picked off a handful of times. Saturday's test in Lincoln will be much more difficult to manage versus a Wisconsin top-25 pass defense.
Lee completed 17 of 24 pass attempts for 246 yards and three touchdowns. Lee benefited with the return of wide out Stanley Morgan Jr in Saturday's win. Morgan caught eight passes for 96 yards and a touchdown after sitting out of the Cornhuskers' 27-17 win over Rutgers a week earlier with a neck injury.
Lee is nothing short of a young gunslinger that has a lot of learning to do about managing a game. The transfer from Tulane is learning on the job in a defensive minded Big 10. Lee entered last week's game against the Illini with seven touchdowns and nine interceptions,
Nebraska struggled to defeat Arkansas State in their season opener. The Cornhuskers were blown out in the first half of their 42-35 loss in Oregon against the Ducks. And lost on their home turf in Week #3 to the MAC's Northern Illinois.
Running the football is key to the Cornhuskers offensive success and Lee's effectiveness. The Cornhuskers have won 15 straight games when they outrush their opponent.
Wisconsin held a 78.8 winning percentage and 26-7 record in Big Ten Conference play in the last five seasons. The only conference school with a better record is Ohio State, which owns a 94.1 winning percentage and 32-2 record.
Neither of these two Big 10 squads are as good as they were a season ago but the Nebraska matchup against Wisconsin this season isn't favorable for the Huskers. The Badgers are head and shoulders more experienced and deeper than Cornhuskers and the result will be a big divisional road win for Wisconsin on Saturday night.
The Prez
Kansas State at Texas
Play: Kansas St +4.5
Texas comes into this conference event with a 2-2 mark. The Longhorns have the advantage of two additional days of preparation due to their last game being a week-ago Thursday at Iowa State. The Wildcats are led by legendary coach Bill Snyder and have a history of being a tough opponent as a road underdog during his head coaching tenure in Manhattan.
Senior quarterback Jesse Ertz does everything for the Wildcats save play defense. The dual threat quarterback has rushed for a team-high 332 yards and three touchdowns. Also, the veteran QB has registered 706 yards through the air that includes five touchdown passes.
In last year's conference contest Ertz registered 78 yards rushing and two touchdowns on the ground. And recorded 171 passing yard and one touchdown toss in a Kansas State's 24-21 win over the Longhorns.
Defensively the team is led by linebacker Trent Tanking and his 26 tackles this season. Defensive tackle Will Geary spends most of his Saturday afternoons in the opposition backfield. Geary has three sacks and 4-plus tackles for loss in 2017. The consistent and technically disciplined defense of the Wildcats allow just 15 points and 3008 yards per game after four games this year.
The Longhorns 2-2 record is highlighted by two losses. Texas lost their season opener in Austin to Big 10 Maryland. They also lost a hard fought contest at the Rose Bowl to nationally ranked USC. In truth the Longhorns have faced one quarterback with the similar skill-set that Ertz possesses. That being Maryland's Tyrell Pigromme. The 'Horns defense did an admirable job against the Trojans Sam Darnold. They defeated Iowa State's Jacob Park in their last game. Also the team have faced the average talent of San Jose's Montel Aaron. Their execution against Maryland's dual threat Pigromme resulted in an ugly performance and a loss.
The current defensive player personnel for the Longhorns is ex-head coach Charlie Strong's. Since the group aggressively rushes the quarterback without discipline they struggle against running quarterbacks.
Offensively the Longhorns are challenged. Ignore the 56 points the unit scored against San Jose State. Pay little attention to the 41 they put up against the Terps in their season opening loss as they allowed 51 points. There is no arguing Longhorns' new head coach Tom Herman's offensive ingenuity. His reputation as one of college football's top offensive minds is supported by winning the Broyles Award as OC and QB coach for Ohio State's 2014 national championship team. It is especially relevant to understand it will take Herman two-plus years to recruit the talent he needs to execute his offensive scheme.
The Kansas State offense under the guidance of Ertz is averaging 38 points and 200-plus yards on the ground this season. Texas signal caller Shane Buechele isn't a good fit in the Herman scheme. He has been in and out of the starting lineup this season. Buechele did start and manage the offense to a victory in Ames versus a capable Cyclones squad but isn't 100 percent healthy.
In conclusion expect the Wildcats coaching staff to attack a second string Texas offense line. Furthermore the front five that is without All-American left tackle Connor Williams (knee) and eventually outscore and defeat Texas straight up in Austin on Saturday night.
Ian Cameron
SMU at Houston
Play: SMU +6.5
SMU is one of the few teams who has yet to suffer a pointspread defeat (4-1 SU/5-0 ATS). The Mustangs offense has been rolling under the guidance of head coach Chad Morris and second-year starting quarterback Ben Hicks. Hicks has thrown 14 TDs and just 3 INTs and while at times erratic (54% completions YTD) he enters off of a season-best 73% in last week’s blowout win over UConn. Overall, SMU has scored 36+ points in every game including against a solid TCU defense. Their balanced attack, which is averaging just shy of 200 ypg on the ground and slightly over 300 ypg through the air, can cause some havoc against Houston. Defense is a strength for the Cougars but they have only faced one real good offense so far in Texas Tech and the Red Raiders rolled up 521 total yards. It’s also worth noting Houston’s terrific standout defensive tackle Ed Oliver may not suit up in this game due to a sprained ankle injury which he sustained last week against Temple.
On the other side of the equation, the departures in the offseason of former head coach Tom Herman and quarterback Greg Ward Jr. have been very impactful. Under head coach Major Applewhite, the offense has been spotty and now there is a quarterback controversy with Texas A&M transfer Kyle Allen on the bench and Kyle Postma under center. Houston has been held to 24 points or less in three of four games; they managed to top the 30 point against woeful Rice. SMU has some defensive holes but I’m not sure Houston has the cohesion and chemistry on offense as of this moment to take advantage of those issues. SMU has outgained its last two opponents (UConn and Arkansas State) by a combined 251 yards and fared well (2-0 ATS, +45 total yardage) in two meetings against Houston since Morris took over in 2015. The price has certainly been adjusted (SMU was +23.5 and +25) but a lot has changed and the sizeable gap no longer remains. Worth the effort to seek out +7 with a very capable underdog.
Otto Sports
Wisconsin at Nebraska
Play: Under 45.5
Feeling the heat of an 1-3 start, including a home loss to Northern Illinois, Nebraska head coach Mike Riley is well aware his days in Lincoln could be numbered. Said "heat" has cooled off a little bit thanks to back-to-back wins to open Big Ten play. The competition Rutgers and Illinois was far from imposing and it really ramps up moving forward starting with a home tilt vs. Wisconsin. One noticable change during Nebraska's two recent wins was a far more conservative game plan. The Cornhuskers ran the ball 85 times vs. only 45 pass attempts. Check out some of the quotes following NU's win over Rutgers:
“Running the ball to win at the end is a good thing to be able to do,” Riley said. “That mentality as we go forward, if we can build on that and if we can balance it out with not necessarily more often but a more efficient passing game, we’re going to be better and better.”
“I think it’s important being able to manage the game and control the clock,” Lee said. “Just kind of getting behind the offensive line and let them take over the game, that was huge. Our offensive line has been taking pride in the work that they put in, and that was great to see.”
Saturday's game is an important one with Nebraska 2-0, Wisconsin 1-0, and the remainder of the West Division winless in league play. Run-heavy and chewing the clock could be tricky in a game where Nebraska projects to be playing from behind. But it's abundantly clear that shortening the game and staying close is priority #1 for this squad.
Wisconsin was able to post impressive offensive numbers its first three games albeit against the soft defenses of Utah State, Florida Atlantic and BYU. Last week, facing a bit more resistance, the Badgers managed only 306 total yards in their 33-24 win over Northwestern. The final tally was very deceving as both teams combined for only 550 yards but five turnovers and a pick six helped it go over the total. Last year's meeting saw Wisconsin grind out a 23-17 win in Madison. Both squads combined for a Big Ten-esque 642 yards. I project a very similar outcome on Saturday though the total has already been bet down from 49 to 45.5. As with a lot of early week movement, there's a strong tendency for "buy back" at some point. I would wait to see if 47 or 46.5 becomes available.