Wunderdog
San Diego St at UNLV
Pick: Under 58
UNLV was humiliated in a season-opening loss to Howard as a 45-point favorite, but the Rebels recovered and won two of the next three games and the only loss was expected as it was at Ohio State. UNLV stayed UNDER in both wins against Idaho and San Jose State as it allowed a combined total of only 29 points in the two games. Last year's meeting was a low-scoring affair as San Diego State won 26-7 and the game went UNDER by 20 points. The Aztecs' defense had two impressive performances against Pac-12 competition this season in wins over Arizona State and Stanford while allowing a combined 37 points. Christian Chapman was 10-of-19 for 136 yards and two touchdowns against Northern Illinois last week and Rashaad Penny rushed for 107 yards on 25 carries. UNLV enjoyed a 35-13 halftime lead against San Jose State but only scored six more points the rest of the way while holding the Spartans scoreless in the second half. The UNDER is 5-2-1 the last eight meetings and San Diego State has stayed UNDER five of its last six after an ATS loss.
Dr Bob
Maryland @ Ohio St.
Maryland clearly is not as good offensively with #3 quarterback Max Bortenschlager behind center rather than #1 Tyrrell Pigrome or #2 Kasim Hill, who combined to complete 27 off 33 passes for 405 yards – most of which came against a good Texas defense. My model projects Maryland with just 3.3 yards per pass play against the Buckeyes but the Terrapins should run the ball well enough to give them a few scoring chances (4.7 yards per rushing play projected) and the Terps’ defense is pretty solid. Overall the math favors Maryland to stay within the big number.
Wake Forest @ Clemson
Wake Forest outgained Florida State 5.2 yards per play to 4.2 yppl in last week’s 7 point defeat and the Demon Deacons are a legitimately good team this season – rating at 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively (5.6 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and 0.7 yppl better than average on defense (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense).
Clemson, of course, is an elite team on both sides of the ball but my math model sees some value with the quality big dog. I’ll lean with Wake.
Michigan St. @ Michigan
This should be a low scoring game between two very good defensive teams with offensive issues. Michigan’s defense is once again one of the best in the nation, as the Wolverines have allowed just 13.5 points per game and 3.7 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. That unit should have no trouble containing a Michigan State offense that has managed just 24.5 points per game and a modest 5.6 yppl despite facing a collection of teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppl to an average offense. The Spartans are projected to score in the 10 to 14 point range but that may be enough to stay within the number given that their strong defense (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl) should be able to limit Big Blue’s offense, which has under-performed so far this season (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl). The offense did perform much better two weeks ago at Purdue after John O’Korn took over for injured starter Wilton Speight but that good performance (8.8 yards per pass play on 28 pass plays) is based on a small sample and O’Korn was terrible last season (4.6 yppp on 36 pass plays). My math favors Michigan by 10 points but does lean under the low total.
Stanford @ Utah
As I’ve been saying for two years, Stanford is a better team when Keller Chryst is not in the game yet David Shaw continues to think he’s their best quarterback. Last season Ryan Burns began the season as the starter and played against some very good defensive teams (Kansas State, USC, UCLA, Washington, Colorado) and put up decent numbers considering his competition (5.5 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback). Burns was replaced by Chryst, who averaged 5.9 yppp in his 6 starters, which was a bit higher than Burns’ average. However, Chryst faced mostly bad defensive teams (Arizona, Oregon State, Oregon, Cal and Rice) and his opponents would allow 7.0 yppp to an average quarterback. So, while Chryst had slightly better numbers than Burns he faced teams that would 1.8 yppp worse defensively. You figure there’d be some math geek at Stanford that would have figured that out and let coach Shaw know how stupid he’s being letting Chryst enter this season as the starter.
Chryst opened the season with a good game against a horrible Rice pass defense but he averaged just 3.5 yppp in 2-plus games after that before getting injured against UCLA. That opened the door for K.J. Costello to play and he’s played well, averaging 7.1 yppp on 52 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average QB. That’s 1.3 yppp better than Chryst, who has averaged just 5.6 yppp on 81 pass plays this season while facing teams that would allow 6.1 yppp. Chryst is healthy again and Shaw hasn’t told anyone which quarterback will start, which makes this game tough to call since there is such a big difference between Chryst, who still sucks, and any other quarterback on Stanford (Burns is still there too). Shaw says both quarterbacks will play and if they split time then I get Stanford by just 1 point in this game. We’ll see if Shaw’s love affair with Chyst has ended based on how much each quarterback plays. But, if I were the coach I’d just give the ball to Bryce Love 35 times. I called Love the best running back in the nation three weeks ago and Love has made me look good by rushing for 1088 yards at an amazing 11.1 ypr. Utah has a good run defense (3.7 yprp allowed) but San Diego State had a good run defense in every game other than against Love, as the Cardinal gained 11.1 yards per rushing play against the Aztecs. So, maybe the quality of the opposing defense doesn’t make a difference. I’ll lean with Utah plus the points since I’d only get Stanford by 3 points if Costello plays the entire game at quarterback. I’m assuming that Utah quarterback Tyler Huntley will not play, which is fine given that backup Troy Williams was the starter last season and his numbers since the beginning of last season are better than Huntley’s numbers this season.
Drew Martin
Tulsa / Tulane Under 54.5
Very unique situation for the Tulsa Golden Hurricane as their trip to Tulane marks the third straight week they've faced an option-based offense. Despite failing to cover both contests vs. Navy and New Mexico, I came away somewhat impressed with Tulsa's defense. After allowing over 9 yards per play to up-tempo Oklahoma State, UL-Lafayette and Toledo, the Golden Hurricane held the Midshipmen and Lobos to 47 points and 6.6 ypp combined. Saturday's game marks another situation where Tulsa's stop unit should perform at an adequate level as Tulane ranks 102nd nationally in total offense vs. Navy and New Mexico who rank 18th and 38th, respectively.
Tulane's defense is talented and has the potential to be the best unit in the AAC. They aren't necessarily built to stop top-tier attacks (Oklahoma hung 56 points and 10.2 ypp) but Tulsa's offense, specifically its passing game, has taken a big step back this season following the departure of quarterback Dane Evans. Through five games, Tulsa has topped 200 yards only once through the air and owns a dismal team QB Rating of 116.2. What Tulsa has been able to do is run the football (295 ypg) but in this matchup, that plays right into the hands of Tulane who has allowed less than 5 ypc.
I strongly agree with the significant move towards the under (61.5 to 54.5) and would still recommend a small wager despite the decrease in value.
Rob Veno
Virginia Tech at Boston College
Play: Over 45.5
Immediate bounce back is necessary here for the visiting Hokies who were defeated 31-17 at home last week by ACC kingpin Clemson. This type of situation generally points squarely in favor of the defensive minded double-digit home underdog. Mechanical handicap in this one would be to fade Virginia Tech which is traveling and off of a high profile conference loss. Letdown angle can’t be ignored here since it’s difficult to envision VT playing this one with the same intensity they possessed in last week’s prime time home showdown versus Clemson. Factor in the carry over confidence that Boston College will enter with after playing to a 7-7 tie at Clemson just two weeks ago. The fourth quarter really got away from BC but despite that they still managed to cover as +33. Steve Addazio with definitely remind his team all week long that if they just finish this time they’ll have a shot at defeating Va Tech. Home field and the memory of last year’s 49-0 loss in this matchup should also help with motivation, energy and focus Saturday night.
The problem for BC will be fundamentally where they are severely limited offensively and shaky at best on the defensive side versus quality diverse offenses. Two contests in particular stand out. The first is the Notre Dame game where they used their strong ground game and dual threat QB to dismantle BC’s defense for 611 total yards. Next is and the previously mentioned Clemson game where despite the three quarter struggle, CU also used their strong ground game and dual threat QB to register 482 total yards including a whopping 342 from their rushing attack. It’s obvious that the Eagles have skewed overall statistics which point out their defensive weakness at the line of scrimmage against foes where they must respect run and pass.
Tough call here as the situation clearly screams underdog but the fundamentals suggest potential favorite blowout. Virginia Tech has the defense at all three levels to stifle BC’s offense which has been held to 339 ty or less in four of their five games this season. Their 4.5 yards per pass attempt (highest game average this season was only 5.2) indicates they cannot stretch the field. Knowing that, expect Hokies DC Bud Foster to have his troops creep up a couple steps closer to the line of scrimmage which figures to positively enhance their already aggressive nature. Total here of 45.5 looks to be value laden just off of comparative score, common sense logic. BC was blown out by Notre Dame here in Chestnut Hill but managed to score 20 against them en-route to a final game total of 69. Versus Clemson’s defense on the road they were again beaten soundly but only managed to score seven points in a game that totaled 41. With Virginia Tech grading out overall somewhere in between Clemson ad Notre Dame, you can probably expect the final score to land inside the boundaries of 41-69. This contest only needs to yield five more points than the Clemson game did which opens the door wide enough to play over the total. Percentages look to be well in favor of this game climbing above the current total.
Andrew Lange
Texas Tech at Kansas
Play: Kansas -16
Two weeks ago, Kansas played arguably its best game of the season. Trailing early to West Virginia, the Jayhawks battled back and were within one score midway through the fourth quarter before two turnovers let to two Mountaineer scores and a somewhat deceiving 56-34 final. Kansas still covered the number (+23.5) giving them five straight Big XII pointspread wins dating back to last season but I'm far more interested in what they were able to do on the ground. There was a lot of preseason talk about Kansas going to more of an "Air Raid" style offense but they simply don't have to personnel, particularly at the quarterback position, to chuck the ball around 50 times a game and have success. Against WVU, Kansas ran the ball 50 times and finished with 367 yards on 7.3 ypc. This against a team that coming in was allowing 4.4 ypc. Don't expect that type of success on a weekly basis but keeping the ball on the ground, especially in Saturday's matchup, does a number of positive things, including limiting the potential for interceptions (Kansas has thrown 7) and keeping a sub-par defense off the field.
Texas Tech comes to town feeling pretty good about itself with a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS record. And the Red Raiders have been challenged with wins vs. Arizona State, at Houston, and 41-34 loss on national TV vs. Oklahoma State. Defense has actually played a big part in TTU's success as they've allowed a modest 5.65 ypp and forced 10 turnover (+7 margin). The problem I have is Texas Tech is now being asked to go on the road and win by margin something they don't have much of any track record in doing. The last time the Red Raiders won by more than 17 on the highway was Week 1 of the 2013 season when they beat SMU by 18. In 2014, laying -21, TTU won at UTEP 30-26. In 2015, laying -33 at Kansas, TTU won 30-20. And last season as chalk at Iowa State and Arizona State, Texas Tech lost both games outright by a combined score of 134-65.
It's a pretty favorable spot for the home side: off a bye week and homecoming. And the opposition, while better, in theory shouldn't be overwhelming. If Kansas can continue to establish a more balanced attack and move the football on the ground, the under-the-radar pointspread run vs. the Big XII should continue.
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Miami-Florida Hurricanes.
After 7 comes zero!
Florida State has dominated in-state rival Miami to a tune of 7-0 straight up, while covering in 3 of the last 4 series victories.
It all stops today!
The home team is just 2-8 against the spread the last 10 games played in this series.
Miami looked the part of "road warrior" at Duke last Friday night, trouncing a very good Blue Devils team, 31-6.
That win improved the 'Canes to 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games.
The Seminoles really miss Francois under center, as true-freshman Blackman is still very much a work in progress. Hurricanes counterpart Rosier definitely rates the edge in the QB department.
Throw in Miami's 5-1 spread mark their last 6 as the road favorite, and I think we will be seeing the 7 years of losing by the 'Canes coming to a halt.
Lay the road wood with Miami-Florida.
4* MIAMI-FLORIDA
Ray Monohan
West Virginia +13½
The Mountaineers take on TCU here Saturday and the visitors with the points are worth a flyer.
TCU comes in off a huge win over the Oklahoma State Cowboys and after the bye week they return to action at home against a team that isn't a pushover. This could cause some overlooking issues here for the Horned Frogs.
West Virginia has won 3 straight and has scored over 50 points in all 3 of those games.
Along with that, TCU hasn't done well at home ATS. They've gone just 1-10 over their last 11 home games, which makes taking the big points here very interesting.
Some other trends to note. Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
This number is too high and worth a move on the Mountaineers.
Doug Upstone
Fresno St vs. San Jose St
Play: Fresno St -17
Fresno State is much improved, especially on defense and faces a sorry San Jose State club. In this spot we look to Play On road team like the Bulldogs after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games, against opponent after being outrushed by 150 or more yards in two straight contests. In the past nine years this system is amazing 23-2 ATS, 92.0%!
Cappers Club
Minnesota vs. Purdue
Play: Purdue -4
The Purdue Boilermakers and the Minnesota Golden Gophers face off on Saturday and the Boilermakers have all kinds of value.
The Purdue Boilermakers have surprised a lot of people this season and they are going to get a good boost in this game.
Quarterback David Blough should play in this game and he should have no issue picking apart a Gophers secondary that is dealing with all kinds of injuries.
The Gophers were embarrassed last weekend by a Maryland team who was on their third string quarterback.
The Boilermakers are going to have no issue in this game.
Matt Josephs
Texas Tech vs. Kansas
Play: Over 79
I came really close to telling you to take Kansas because the spot seems good. The Jayhawks offense has been rolling and is coming off a bye week to clear their heads during this three game losing streak. They are running it well and can throw it too under Doug Meachem's offense. You've got a Texas Tech team coming off a tough home loss to Oklahoma State so there could be a letdown here. Still, it's hard to trust Kansas' defense to stop the Red Raiders. They allowed 45 points to a bad CMU offense earlier last month and 42 to Ohio. So, with that in mind, I'll take a chance on the over and hope the fireworks continue. Texas Tech hasn't exactly stopped too many teams either lately. I think this one is a fun game and a high scoring over.
Matt Fargo
Georgia vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt +18
Georgia heads to Vanderbilt in a very vulnerable spot as it is now the talk of the SEC after impressive wins over Mississippi St. and Tennessee by 28 and 41 points respectively. The Bulldogs are off to a 5-0 start with one of the best defenses in the nation as they are ranked No. 3 overall and No. 2 in scoring but this is the prime position for a letdown. Tennessee is a rival and that was a big revenge game for Georgia which fell at home to the Volunteers last season and knocked them out of the polls and they never got back in. This qualifies as a revenge game as well you know our stance on road revenge, especially when laying a number this big. The public is not shying away however as the Bulldogs are being bet hard and this number keeps climbing. Vanderbilt came back down to earth following a 3-0 start including an upset win over then-ranked Kansas St. as it was obliterated by Alabama 59-0 as it got outgained by close to 600 yards. The Commodores fought back strong last week with a valiant effort in Florida as they were a fourth down stop away from getting the ball and trying to tie the game late in the fourth quarter. Now they are back in front of the home crowd for the first time since that Alabama debacle and embarrassing losses such as that in front of the home fans can bring out the best next time they take the field. Vanderbilt is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog while the Bulldogs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Dave Price
Miami-FL vs. Florida St
Play: Miami-FL -2½
The Miami Hurricanes are a legit national title contender. I think they prove that this week with a road win at Florida State, ending their 7-game losing streak to the Seminoles in this series. This is the first time in a long time that the Hurricanes have had the better team in this meeting. And they nearly pulled off the upset each of the last 3 years, losing by 1, 4 and 5 points. They get their revenge here Saturday. This Seminoles team is broken and should have lost last week to Wake Forest, getting outgained by 97 yards by the Demon Deacons. QB James Blackmon looks lost and is extremely inaccurate, completing just 11 of 21 passes for 121 yards against Wake Forest. The Hurricanes have the better QB in Malik Rosier, who has completed 66% of his passes for 820 yards with 8 TD's and 2 INT's. They have the better RB in Mark Walton, who has rushed for 403 yards and 3 scores while averaging 9.2 per carry. And they have the better defense. The Hurricanes get the win and cover in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas State vs. Texas
Play: Under 49
We are getting some great value here on the total in Saturday's Big 12 showdown between Texas and Kansas State. The fact that the Longhorns were suppose to take a big step on offense under Tom Herman and combined for 92 points in their opener to Maryland, I think the books are inflating the totals for the Longhorns. It certainly seems that way, as Texas has gone UNDER in each of their last 3 and the last two haven't been close. They combined for 51 against USC in overtime with a total of 67 and just 24 against Iowa State with a total of 62.
I know we are dealing with a much smaller number here, but this is also a really good K-State defense, who has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game this season. The Wildcats are 33rd in the country against both the run (120.5 ypg) and the pass (188.0 ypg). After watching this offense struggle against a bad ISU defense, I see no reason why we shouldn't expect K-State to make things very difficult.
On the flip side of this, Texas has a really good defense of their own. The strength of that unit is the front 7, as the Longhorns rank 17th against the run, which makes this an ideal matchup for them against a run-heavy K-State attack. The Wildcats are 27th in rushing (229.0 ypg) compared to just 104th in passing (179.3 ypg). That style of play is also ideal for low-scoring. When they actually do score, it's usually a long time-consuming drive.
I just don't see either offense doing a lot here and think both teams will find it difficult just to string together a couple first downs. Keep in mind each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams have all seen 45 or less points scored with a mere 33 the last time they played in Texas.
UNDER is 14-5 in the Longhorns last 19 conference games and 20-7-1 in their last 28 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas State vs. Texas
Play: Under 49
We are getting some great value here on the total in Saturday's Big 12 showdown between Texas and Kansas State. The fact that the Longhorns were suppose to take a big step on offense under Tom Herman and combined for 92 points in their opener to Maryland, I think the books are inflating the totals for the Longhorns. It certainly seems that way, as Texas has gone UNDER in each of their last 3 and the last two haven't been close. They combined for 51 against USC in overtime with a total of 67 and just 24 against Iowa State with a total of 62.
I know we are dealing with a much smaller number here, but this is also a really good K-State defense, who has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game this season. The Wildcats are 33rd in the country against both the run (120.5 ypg) and the pass (188.0 ypg). After watching this offense struggle against a bad ISU defense, I see no reason why we shouldn't expect K-State to make things very difficult.
On the flip side of this, Texas has a really good defense of their own. The strength of that unit is the front 7, as the Longhorns rank 17th against the run, which makes this an ideal matchup for them against a run-heavy K-State attack. The Wildcats are 27th in rushing (229.0 ypg) compared to just 104th in passing (179.3 ypg). That style of play is also ideal for low-scoring. When they actually do score, it's usually a long time-consuming drive.
I just don't see either offense doing a lot here and think both teams will find it difficult just to string together a couple first downs. Keep in mind each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams have all seen 45 or less points scored with a mere 33 the last time they played in Texas.
UNDER is 14-5 in the Longhorns last 19 conference games and 20-7-1 in their last 28 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Chip Chirimbes
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina +15½
This matchup sits one teams strength against their opponents weakness. Notre Dame is averaging 301 yards a game on the ground and after sustaining their lone loss 20-19 to Georgia they have dismantled Boston College, Miami-O and Michigan State while North Carolina is allowing 33 pints per game and surrendered to Georgia Tech. Adjustment will be made. With No. 2 overall pick Mich Trubisky is gone and so is the Tar Heels offense are having difficulty maintaining drives. The only hope for Carolina is that Notre Dame has Southern Cal next.