Michael Alexander
Wisconsin vs. Nebraska
Play: Wisconsin -10½
Siding with the 'Huskers as double digit dogs, may seem an automatic play. But, although NU is still an annual fixture in the bowl season, it just isn't the same fear-producing program, as it was (not a single vote in preseason polls). That the last 4 times in which they were installed as underdogs, they have allowed 62, 40, 38, & 42 points, although, they did cover in their only such role this season, a 42-35 loss at Oregon. The Badgers aren't exactly lighting it up, with their normally overwhelming rushing offense, but still own a 237-74 yards per game edge in that category, & did cover their last road game by 18.
Mike Anthony
West Virginia vs. TCU
Play: TCU -13
W Virginia cannot stop the run as they give up over 5 yards/play. TCU loves to run the ball and I see another blowout for them here at home. The crucial keys to the TCU strategy are scoring massive pts - of course - but if Kyzir White keeps making the jump in his pass coverage game, and the rest of the team continue their obvious steady improvement, TCU is going to be an awful lot to handle for West Virginia. This TCU team has been a huge surprise with their monstrous scoring ability and Will Grier is very dangerous. Grier is a great player, and he is the biggest key here, in my opinion. He is a real game changer. If you take away DE Ben Banogu and RB, Darius Anderson, this is really a very average roster. Not even close to what they will be playing against. West Virginia only has a highly ranked defense because of Banogu and his motoring ability. It takes more than a few skilled players to win on a regular basis. That's not to say West Virginia can't win. This game could obviously go either way, but West Virginia doesn't attack the DBs of teams aggressively enough when needed. Horned Frogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Larry Ness
Western Kentucky vs. Texas El Paso
Pick: Western Kentucky -17.5
The 2-2 Western Kentucky HIlltoppers will visit the 0-5 UTEP Miners Saturday night in a C-USA contest. Western Ky has gone 2-2 in non-conference play and looks to win its conference opener against the win-less Miners, who ae already 0-1 in league action, having lost 31-14 at home to Rice (Owls are just 1-4, with UTEP being their only conquest).
Mike Sanford Jr is WKU's first-year head coach, taking over for Jeff Brohm, who left for Purdue. Brohm was there three years and led the Hilltoppers to three straight bowls, while winning 12 and 11 games the last two seasons. Western Ky also averaged 44.4, 44,3 and 45.5 PPG in those three years, something this current edition can only dream about. The 2017 Hilltoppers have scored 31 and 33 points in their wins but check in averaging 23.2 PPG (104th) on the season, about half of last year's average. The only good news would be that the team's defense has played much better than in recent years, allowing just 20.2 PPG (35th), which is about 10 points per game less than under Brohm.
Sean Kugler entered his fifth season at UTEP in 2017 and while he did get the Miners to a bowl game in 2014 (a 21-6 loss to Utah St) in his second season (rebounding from a 2-10 season in his 1st year at the school), UTEP came into this season off 5-7 and 4-8 years. The team's 0-5 start is no accident, as the Miners are averaging 14.4 PPG (125th) on 220.6 YPG (130th), while allowing 45.2 PPG (127th) on 503.0 YPG (122nd).
Western Kentucky is the better team but the Hilltoppers have failed to cover a spread in 2017 (0-4 ATS). However, as noted, UTEP is a program in total disarray, evidenced by the fact that Kugler resigned late last Sunday. Yes, I'll lay the points with Western Ky.
Zack Cimini
UL Monroe vs. Texas State
Pick: Texas State
Consecutive weeks UL Monroe has walked the tight rope on covers. Two weeks ago they nearly blew a twenty point lead against UL Lafayette only to win in double-overtime. Last week they once again watched a lead whittle down only to get a miracle cover against Coastal Carolina on the final play. Heading on the road against a Texas State team that has done nothing virtually all season would seem like a wake up call for Monroe. Instead look for their inability to put away teams to rear its head in a road environment.
Executive Sports
Central Florida at Cincinnati
Play: Central Florida -17
Play On Road favorites (UCF) after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games. (35-8, 81% over the last 10 seasons.) The situation's record this season is: (1-0). The last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4). The last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-6).
Buster Sports
Washington St at Oregon
Play: Washington St -2.5
We had Washington State last week as a 3 1/2 point underdog and today we will lay the points with the Cougars. The Oregon offense took a huge hit last week when QB Justin Herbert broke his collarbone. Now more than ever the Ducks will rely on their 13th ranked rushing offense. However, we believe that the Ducks 77th pass D will be a big problem for them tonight. Washington State’s QB Luke Falk is not getting the attention we believe he deserves and putting on a show against the Ducks in Eugene might just change that. Washington State has the 11th rank defence in CFB and combine that with the 19th ranked offense and we have a club that we believe is being overlooked where others believe they are overrated. Tonight will be a good test. We know that this will be the first road game for the Cougars but only having to lay 2 1/2 points at the time of this writing, we believe that’s a steal. The Cougars are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings with Oregon that just solidifies our selection.
Jim Feist
Western Kentucky at UTEP
Pick: Western Kentucky
UTEP coach Sean Kugler resigned last week after their loss at Army 35-21. Kugler was just 18-36 at El Paso. The Miners had the worst rushing differential of ALL FBS teams this season at -284 yards per game. Enter Mike Price. If the name sounds familiar he's the one who took the Alabama HC job in 2003 but left before ever coaching a game because of a stripper "issue." Add to the fact that QB Ryan Metz is having shoulder issues and this UTEP squad is just a mess. I'll lay the points here with Western Kentucky.
DAVE COKIN
KINGS AT SHARKS
PLAY: KINGS +125
Advantage LA for me here. Jonathan Quick looked sensational in his season debut. He’s back to full health and bear in mind Quick has a clear history of playing extremely good goal early in the season.
I like the energy I saw from the Kings in their opening win against Philadelphia. The Los Angeles offense is going to be a work in progress but overall, this team seems improved. I thought they got a little stale under Sutter last season and the coaching change is probably going to be a plus for the Kings.
I do not like this edition of the Sharks. I believe they will miss the consistent production and leadership of Patrick Marleau. This team is getting old and it looks to me like the window as closed for the Sharks as serious contenders. In fact, I can definitely envision San Jose missing the playoffs this year as it looks as though a rebuild is just around the bend.
Value for me with the Kings at this price.
Chris Jordan
My first free winner for Saturday, is on Coastal Carolina, as I continue to take chances with the Chanticleers when I see value in their numbers.
Couple of intangibles, first of which is Family Weekend. It has nothing to do with football, I know. But it does generate the largest crowds at Brooks Stadium, including three of the facility’s top six crowds before expansion to the stadium this season.
And that will be big with this being Coastal football’s first go-round in the Sun Belt Conference. In previous years, as a member of the Big South, the Chanticleers have won their last three conference home openers, while they're 9-4 in such games all time.
Coastal is just 1-3 overall and 0-1 in Sun Belt play, but Georgia State is 1-2 and is playing its first conference game of the season. And make note, Coastal Carolina's scoring offense ranks fourth in the league with 30.4 points per game, while State has the second-worst points per game, with 12.7.
Both defenses match up rather equally, so I'm going to side with the better offense, at home, in a hype-filled stadium.
Let's play the home team here, in a pick'em game.
4* COASTAL CAROLINA
Jack Brayman
My free play for today is Virginia to cover a close game against Duke. I think the Cavaliers can get this done anywhere between a field goal and six points, so in the event the books are offering 3, buy the half point down.
Rested Virginia just scored a big win over Boise State, and will catch Duke after it 31-6 home loss to Miami last weekend. I have to say, the Cavaliers have looked impressive in consecutive blowout wins, over Connecticut and at Boise, as second-year coach Bronco Mendenhall has this program three wins shy of its first bowl appearance since 2011.
I like the chemistry quarterback Kurt Benkert has established with his receivers, and think he could have a big day through the air, possibly throwing for about 350 yards and a couple of touchdowns. His main target, look for Doni Dowling to break out on the Devils' secondary in this one.
Meanwhile, Duke’s sophomore quarterback, Daniel Jones, is going to struggle against an improved Virginia defense that forced Jones into six turnovers as a freshman. And after seeing Jones get rattled last week, he will be in big trouble here.
Take the small home chalk.
3* VIRGINIA
Joey Juice
Number 10 ranked Ohio State goes up against a proven Maryland team that is coming off of a huge 31-24 win on the road in Minnesota. Ohio State rolled all over Rutgers last week 56-0, and have beaten up their last three opponents by a combined score of 148-28.
Obviously Maryland cannot win this game, but that's not the question is it? The question is can they cover this huge double-digit spread.
The answer is definitely yes!
As we look inside the numbers they are very revealing. Ohio State is not the best team at covering at home, they are 0-4 ATS last 4 home games. In fact, Ohio State is only 2-6 ATS last 8 games overall. So is Ohio State the better team? Of course they are but this isn't UNLV, or Rutgers they are playing against, it's a Maryland team that can score.
Can they score enough to win? Absolutely not. But they will score enough to cover so take the points in this one with Maryland.
2* MARYLAND
Chris Jordan
My second freebie is off the late card, as I head to my hometown. I'm in Southern California for a major event, but my heart is back in Las Vegas. Our first major league pro sports franchise had its first-ever game last night, and the Vegas Golden Knights pulled out the win over the Dallas Stars, in what lifted a city marred by last Sunday's massacre.
Tonight the focus is on the UNLV Rebels.
And just like I scored an underdog last week against San Diego State, taking the Northern Illinois Huskies to give San Diego State a run for its money, this week I'm taking UNLV at home against the nationally ranked Aztecs.
San Diego State is likely as good as advertised, and is proving the loss of Donnel Pumphrey hasn't screwed up any plans of getting back to the Mountain West Championship. But I also know how spirited this UNLV team is, sitting at 2-2 after last week's destruction of San Jose State, and now looking to make a statement.
This team opened the season with that embarrassing loss to Howard. Then it roughed up Idaho, took two weeks off before getting swatted around by Ohio State and then last week's pummeling of San Jose State.
With Armani Rogers, Devonte Boyd and Lexington Thomas all looking fantastic and at the top of their game - in mid season form, basically, I have to side with the home underdog here, knowing they're treating this like the game of their year. There is no bigger contest than this one, because if the Rebels pull off the unthinkable, they're in the driver's seat in the West Division, and can make a run toward the Mountain West championship. If they play it close, at the very least, they prove they can hang, and will still make a run to bowl eligibility.
UNLV has the 22nd-best offense in the nation, led by the sixth-best rushing game. San Diego State, meanwhile, has the 90th-ranked offense, and a mediocre rushing defense that ranks 47th in the country. Give Thomas running room and the Aztecs will be in trouble.
Look for the Rebels to control the tempo with their rushing game, and the Rogers to go up top when it's necessary, to keep the Aztecs defense off balance. Home underdog that is live.
2* UNLV
Tommy Brunson
It is clear that # 5 UGa is for real this season, but now you are paying an inflated price to back the Bulldogs as they invade Nashville for a revenge game against Vanderbilt on Homecoming Day.
Vandy got their doors blown off 2 weeks ago at home against Alabama, 59-0, but they did acquit themselves better last week in a loss at Florida, as the Commodores stayed there with the Gators for the better part of the contest - only a late Florida score put the Gators on top of the number for the cover.
The 'Dores offense may not be able to keep pace in this game for the full 4 quarters, but quarterback Shurmer will be the 'Dawgs toughest test to date under center as he has 11 TD passes versus just 1 pick this season!
Vanderbilt was able to bottle up Georgia last season in their 17-16 upset win in Athens, and they have split the last 4 with the Bulldogs straight up while covering in all 4, and 5 of the last 6 series meetings.
UGa will get their revenge, but it won't come by enough to cover this roomy impost.
Take the 'Dores as the home dog on Saturday.
3* VANDERBILT
Eric Schroeder
Let's head to the Big Ten for tonight's free play, as I'm laying the points with the Wisconsin Badgers, on the road, at the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Sure, it's easy to say Nebraska is playing its best football this season after stumbling to a 1-2 start with losses to Oregon and Northern Illinois, but it'll face its toughest opponent of the season tonight, and the Badgers have a national title on their mind. Besides, what do wins over Rutgers and Illinois really mean, Huskers fans?
It may be a showdown in Lincoln featuring the only two unbeaten teams in the West Division, but trust me when I tell you the Badgers outclass this team.
Look for Wisconsin to keep the pressure on Nebraska quarterback Tanner Lee, as the Badgers arrive in Lincoln after registering eight sacks for the first time in 16 years. Six different players were in on those sacks, demonstrating just how destructive the Badgers’ defensive pressure can be.
Lee, who does not pose a threat to run, has just 13 carries for minus-60 yards this season, the result of taking sacks.
The Badgers have looked more like the complete team than Nebraska, so far this season, and I like them to win this by two touchdowns.
2* WISCONSIN
Brandon Lee
Cubs vs. Nationals
Play: Cubs +116
I cashed the Cubs with my free pick on Friday and will fire right back with Chicago on Saturday, as I look for them to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the series. Hendricks completely shutdown the Nationals lineup and I expect ace Jon Lester to do the same, except this time I expect a little more run support from the Cubs offense. Washington's sending out Gio Gonzalez, who really struggled down the stretch with a 6.06 ERA in his last 3 starts. Lester allowed just 1 run over his last 9 innings of work and seems to be at his best on the biggest stage. The Nationals are also feeling the pressure of playing at home in the postseason. After yesterday's loss they are now just 1-6 in their last 7 division playoff home games and 3-8 in their last 11 playoff games overall. Cubs are 7-1 in their last 8 division playoff games, 7-2 in Lester's last 9 on the road and 20-8 in his last 28 when facing a team that scored 2 or fewer runs in their last game.