Kyle Hunter
Georgia State vs. Coastal Carolina
Play: Coastal Carolina +1
The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers won at home against UMass in their season opener. They have lost their last three games. Two of those games they actually finished with more total yards than their opponent. Coastal Carolina isn't a good team, but I don't think they are as bad as some believe either.
Georgia State is totally reliant on the passing attack, and Coastal Carolina has been pretty good in the secondary so far this year. Georgia State has one win so far this year, and that was against lowly Charlotte. I don't see what they have done to be favored by anyone on the road.
I like taking home underdogs that have a big rushing game advantage. We're only catching one point here, but I do see value here on Coastal Carolina after some misleading final scores.
Vic Duke
Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo
Play: Eastern Michigan +14
Eastern Michigan/Toledo Noon: Toledo had time to stew over their blow out loss to Mia-Fla; however, they're 0-5 ATS off a double-digit SU loss and 0-9 ATS before Central Michigan. Sure, they have the explosive offense and they've absolutely owned EM the last decade. Nevertheless, value with an Eagles squad that's covered 3 of 4 games this year with efficient passing and sound defense. Toledo gives up too many yards and spotty in the secondary. The Eagles went down to Kentucky last week and gave the Wildcats a scare. EM now 8-1 ATS as a dog of less than 28 points against a team above .500. HC Creighton is doing a nice job building the program and I'm taking the two touchdowns here.
Steve Merril
Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo
Play: Toledo -14
Toledo opened at -13 and was quickly bet higher to -13.5. Play this game before it hits above the key number of -14 or higher. Toledo enters with extra preparation time off a bye week and the Rockets are taking a big step down in class after facing Miami Florida two weeks ago. Toledo's offense was strong in that loss, scoring 30 points on 429 total yards.
Eastern Michigan does not have the advantage of a bye week and they enter this game off back-to-back close losses versus Ohio and Kentucky which could leave the Eagles flat. Eastern Michigan is the substantially weaker offensive team in this game, averaging just 20 points per game and 4.9 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow 27 ppg and 5.6 yppl).
TJ Pemberton
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs
Play: Maple Leafs -145
The New York Rangers lost their home opener on Thursday 4-2 against the Avalanche. The Rangers are 0-2 on the season and will head to Toronto to take on the Maple Leafs on Saturday night. New York had 39 shots on goal in their loss and had the number one face off percentage win in the NHL. The road team has won four straight games in this series. Henrik Lundqvist will make the start between the pipes for the Rangers. Lundqvist allowed three goals against on Thursday and carries a .880 save percentage. Lundqvist faced 26 shots on goals which is currently the lowest amount in the NHL.
The Toronto Maple Leafs head back home after beating the Jets 7-2 on the road on Wednesday. The Maple Leafs scored three goals in the first and second period and are 2nd in the NHL in goals per game currently. The Maple Leafs have struggled when host the Rangers losing four straight against them while on their home ice. The Maple Leafs look like a solid team and will be a much better team than last season. Frederik Andersen will make his 2nd start of the season in the goal for the Leafs. Andersen is 1-0 and allowed two goals in his first victory of the season. Andersen posted a .946 save percentage. The Maple Leafs lost in their last game against the Rangers 2-1.
Rob Vinciletti
Central Florida at Cincinnati
Play: Central Florida
UCF has a 200+ yard edge on offense and nearly 100 yard edge on defense. They have covered 6 of 7 after rushing for over 200 yard and 5 of 6 after allowing 20 or less. They just blew out Memphis and face a Cincinnati team that is 1-10 ats at home and 2-9 vs winning teams. From out College system library we see that .666 or less home dogs in game 4 or later that are off a home favored loss as a 3.5 or higher home favorite and lost by 12 or more have failed to cover 31 of 41 times. Look for UCF To coast in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
KANSAS +14½ over Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have been an economical choice for many in 2017, so seemingly this contest sets up Texas Tech backers to green up against their weakest FBS opponent year-to-date. Texas Tech has dominated this series as a whole. The Red Raiders have squared off with Kansas 17 times in series history and KU has won just one time. That win was over a decade ago. Last year, Tech ran buckshot on the Jayhawks, as they smashed Kansas by a score of 55-19. Though we are a full year removed from that affair, this market puts heavy influence on past results and usually end up ripping their tickets while we look for spots exactly like this one.
The Red Raiders got off to a 3-0 start and though they lost to Oklahoma State last week by a touchdown, they gained popularity and market cred be that they came in under a 10-point cushion. In a matter of two weeks, TT has swung 25 points from a significant home-pooch to an extensive road favorite.
Kansas is a step down in competitive quality compared to the Pokes and there is little question about that. The Jayhawks have now lost their third consecutive game and have yet to win a game this year against a FBS opponent. In their most recent exploit, the Jayhawks were defeated 56-34 at home by the West Virginia Mountaineers. Though the box score displays otherwise, KU actually hung around against WVU. The Jayhawks trailed by as much as 25 points against West Virginia but battled back to within eight of the Mountaineers in the late stages of the third quarter. In the final five minutes, WV scored two late touchdowns to secure the win and final tally. Like West Virginia, Texas Tech is a team of a similar profile. Texas Tech lives and dies by its offensive operations just like West Virginia. However, the Red Raiders are a bit of a one-trick pony. TT scores 42.2 points per game on average and boasts the third best passing attack in America but the Red Raiders are also one of the worst rushing teams in the land. TT’s defense also surrenders 309.8 passing yards per game (125th Nationally) and 30 points per game but that’s just fodder.
Another consistently lousy spot is that of a road favorite off a crushing defeat. Texas Tech hosted #15 Oklahoma State last week and traded punches with them for four quarters before falling by a TD. This sport has a rich history of teams in similar spots that came up flat the week after they played their hearts out in a game they wanted badly. We also love that the Red Raiders get another chance next week, as the travel to West Virginia to take on the #23rd ranked Mountaineers. Situationally speaking, spots don’t get much better than this one for an upset to occur and we have almost 16 beautiful points to work with.
NEBRASKA +10½ over Wisconsin
The fallout from an ugly home loss by Nebraska to Northern Illinois included a change of athletic director. It also has third-year coach Mike Riley feeling the heat despite being just a few games into a program reset centered around new defensive coordinator Bob Diaco and transfer quarterback Tanner Lee. Diaco's unit has shown progress despite losing its best player, cornerback Chris Jones, to a knee injury in the summer. The offense has been the problem. Lee has struggled, the loss of bruiser Tre Bryant stalled the running game, and Riley has acknowledged issues within the offensive staff. However, this bunch has had good chemistry all along, is rediscovering its running game and is becoming more efficient with each game. The popular narrative is that the Mike Riley era is already a failure and that this is a lame-duck staff. Here's a more likely alternative: The ‘Huskers close the season strong, win a bowl game, Riley is retained, then in 2018 the Blackshirts really shine in the second year of Diaco's scheme, Lee stars as a senior thanks to Riley's well-documented prowess with second-year quarterback pupils, and Nebraska posts its best season since Frank Solich left town. The new AD may see it differently, but there are lots of positives here and we're not ready to give up on this outfit, especially when being offered points like this at home against a team we’re going to attack often over the next while.
Most of the media talk we've heard surrounding the Badgers this offseason centers around what a consistent machine the Wisconsin program has become. We'll channel Lee Corso and say "Not so fast" to that. Wisconsin has never won by out-recruiting the rest of the Big Ten, which means the coaching has to be excellent. There seems to be a general assumption that it is, but while we think Paul Chryst is one of the best pro-style play-callers of his generation, anointing him even a basic success as a head coach is premature. Chryst posted a .500 record at a solid Pitt program before being called home to Madison, and while he's lost just three games in each of his first two seasons at his alma mater, it's important to remember that it's still just two years with players that another staff recruited. Two years ago, we wrote that Chryst would fail to replicate the accomplishments of the Bret Bielema era and would eventually disappoint, but that the obvious decline wouldn't really begin until he lost rising star Dave Aranda to a bigger job. That happened after just one year, and now Chryst has lost Justin Wilcox as well. The result is a third defensive boss in three years, and while the last guy had coordinated defenses at Boise State, Southern California, Tennessee and Washington, the new guy has coordinated exactly never.
Last year, Wisconsin was fueled by the pundits' suggestions that the schedule was too tough for a big year. Mission accomplished, 2016 doubters proved wrong, but it's unclear where the needed chips on shoulders will come from this year. Wisky is off to a 4-0 start but don’t buy it, as the wins were anything but pretty and they are going to pay the price for scheduling games against cupcakes. Whether that price is now or later, we promise you that the Badgers are going to be exposed as very ordinary sooner rather than later and we’ll put that to the test here.
TEXAS STATE +6½ over UL Monroe
The stock in the Warhawks continues to rise, as they continue to win and cover. Typically, the Warhawks are not a team you find in a bowl game nor are winning seasons a regularity in their program. Though they are 2-2 on the year, they are clearly an atypical Louisiana-Monroe that could be on its way to bigger and better things in 2017. This is a team that rolled up its sleeves with Memphis on the road as a 27½-point pup and threatened to upset the Tigers in its own stead. This is also the same group that ended cross-state rivals UL-Lafayette’s reign of terror in the Battle of the Bayou Rivalry on the Ragin’ Cajuns own field two weeks ago. All of these events raise the stock in this outfit, setting up a true buy-low, sell-high scenario.
Texas State has lost their four fixtures overall. In their last two outings, the Bobcats have done so in rather grisly fashion. As a 13½-point pup, the Bobcats would fall at home in the renewal of the I-35 Rivalry Game against UTSA when they were rolled by a score of 44-14. In their follow-up a week ago at Wyoming, the Bobcats would get steamrolled as a 16½-point pooch when they were defeated 45-10. The average margin of defeat in those last two games was 30½ points, which is why this number has resonated loudly with us. On the year, this is the lowest number the Bobcats have been spotted and this is after they have lost four consecutive outings and been pummelled in their last two. That has red flags and alarms going off in our head.
The Warhawks are due for a correction and the oddsmmakers know it too. Though the price looks very friendly, it’s not. Don’t get trapped fading the Bobcats here. Though Monroe’s stock is high, it must be highlighted that this team gave up an average of 46½ points in its last two victories while scoring an average of 53½ points to earn those wins. Monroe’s offense is scoring at a pace that is unsustainable and given their defensive operations in those two contests, they are an off-night away from a sobering crash down to Earth. This is likely that night. Always be vigilant against "bad favorites”.
Stanford -3½ over UTAH
The Utes enter this contest undefeated and boast a #18 ranking in the polls. Furthermore, they get this match-up at home in Salt Lake City against a Stanford team that has lost both times it has been on the road in 2017. There are many reasons why Utah could be priced as a pup on its own field despite its unblemished record. First off, Utah hasn’t really played anyone. The Utes opened up their 2017 campaign hosting FCS opponent North Dakota in what was essentially a scheduled win. Utah narrowly covered as a 20½-point choice when they won 37-16. In their follow-up, Utah would defeat BYU on the road in a renewal of The Holy War but again barely covered as a -4½ point favorite when they won 19-13. In hindsight, that was not much of a blockbuster win given the fact BYU is 1-5 on the year and has been embarrassed in Provo on several occasions already in 2017. The Utes would round off their docket with a thumping of perennial cupcake San Jose State and a win at an irrelevant Arizona team who went 3-9 in 2016. In spite of Utah entering undefeated both against-the-spread and straight up, there was an expressed lack of faith in the market that they could handle Arizona by a significant margin. Thus, the Utes closed as 4.5-point choice and narrowly went over the number when they won 30-24. From a betting perspective, Utah seems lucky. From the standpoint of quality, the Utes remain unproven and this was before they lost their starting quarterback Tyler Huntley for an undetermined amount of time due to a shoulder injury sustained against the Wildcats, last week. The Utes have been playing with fire against weak opponents and you know what they say about playing with fire.
Though the Cardinal have lost two games already in 2017, they have played a much tougher schedule. This is a team that entered the 2017 season in the top-15 across many polls. The Cardinal traditionally are a bunch that like to fight their opponents in phone booths. They run the ball down your throat and like to play a physical and smashmouth style of defense that is atypical of Pac-12 teams. They also have one of the better coaching minds in college football, in boss man David Shaw. However, the season has been a bit bumpy for the boys from Palo Alto in the early going. The Cardinal would open up with a 62-7 win against Rice in its opener and then suffer a 42-24 defeat at a then ranked #6 USC in the Coliseum on September 9th. The Cardinal would follow that up with a 20-17 upset loss at a currently-undefeated #19 San Diego State the week thereafter. Since navigating that rough patch, the Cardinal rebounded and won two consecutive games against UCLA and Arizona State in impressive fashion. The Cardinal managed to outgun perhaps the passing leader in America in Bruins signal-caller Josh Rosen in the 58-34 triumph and handed a 34-24 defeat to a Sun Devils team that took down an undefeated and healthy Oregon Ducks. Stanford managed to beat ASU without their starting quarterback Keller Chryst due to concussion protocol. Now, they get him back for this match-up.
Overall, the difference between a battle-tested Cardinal and a cupcake-eating Utes will be the biggest factor in this outcome. Stanford is a legit squad that is gaining steam while the Utes are one of the biggest frauds in the country. The public is eating up a ranked team getting points at home against an unranked opponent but it’s not going to taste very good when this one is in the books.
VANDERBILT +17½ over Georgia
Georgia’s stock continues to soar, as the #6 ranked Bulldogs are coming off a 41-0 shutout win at Tennessee. That head-turning victory came on the heels of a 31-3 rout of a Mississippi State team that waxed LSU. Mississippi State/Georgia was a hyped up (by the media) event that was supposed to be a classic SEC showdown but it was anything but. Georgia buried them from start to finish. Over the past two weeks against Tennessee and Miss St, the Dawgs buried that pair by a combined score of 76-3. Kirby Smart’s program is now 2-0 in SEC play and 5-0 overall.
Vanderbilt’s start to SEC play has been the polar opposite. The Commodores are 0-2 in conference play with back to back losses to both Florida and Alabama. Vandy was a 19½-point dog at home to the Crimson Tide but was shut out 59-0. Last week’s 38-24 loss at Florida does not tell the whole story, as the Commodore not only should have covered as a 9½-point pooch but they had their chances to win. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur has had a nice season with 985 passing yards, 11 touchdowns with just one pick.
Georgia was called a “lighter version of Alabama” by a Vanderbilt beat reporter this week and that’s fitting because they are priced like it. Now all that Georgia hype (and results) presents us with this outstanding opportunity because the Dawgs are not a lighter version of Alabama. In the SEC, there’s two classes, Alabama and everyone else -- end of story. However, this market is getting a little too caught up in Georgia’s dominance the past two weeks. While we’re very optimistic about Georgia’s future under Smart, the Dawgs look to be a year or two of quarterback development, offensive line recruiting and general depth-building away from becoming a legitimate top 10 team but the media is building the Dawgs up as a threat to Alabama. That’s ridiculous.
The real key here also involves Alabama and something we mentioned earlier in this writeup. In Week 4, Alabama went into Vandy and crushed the Commodores 59-0. The Crimson Tide was a 18½-point favorite in that game and now the Dawgs are favored in the same price range. That cannot be. We’ll now play against the market’s huge overreaction to Georgia pasting a couple of ripe to get beat opponents. The Commodores are a very good football team that should and likely will stay well within this range the entire game.
PURDUE -3½ over Minnesota
There is a term that tournament poker players use that you may have heard many times before. We’re referring to “all in” and if we were to apply it to a football game, this would be the game we’d move “all in” on. The Gophers are 3-1 and have gotten some positive press under the guidance of former Western Michigan Head Coach P.J. Fleck. Fleck worked wonders at his former school, as he took the Broncos of WMU from rags to riches during his time there. On December 17, 2012, Western Michigan announced the hiring of Fleck as the new head coach, making him the youngest head coach and the first head coach in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) of college football to have been born in the 1980s. Fleck's first season as Broncos head coach resulted in a final record of 1–11. In 2016, Fleck and WMU had the highest-rated recruiting class in the MAC for the fourth consecutive year. That same season, WMU was able to complete their undefeated regular season at 12-0 with a win at home against Toledo, 55-35. Fleck was named MAC Coach of the Year and was announced as one of five finalists for the Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year award alongside Colorado's Mike MacIntyre, Washington's Chris Petersen, Alabama's Nick Saban and Penn State's James Franklin. Following Tracy Claeys' firing, he accepted the head football coaching job at the University of Minnesota and here we are after an impressive 3-1 start by the Gophers but we’re strongly suggesting it’s fool’s gold.
Minnesota started the season 3-0, but the Gophers are now a long shot to make a sixth straight postseason appearance. The roster that P.J. Fleck inherited is just not equipped for life in the Big Ten. There was natural attrition as a result of the regime change, and while the players have largely responded to Fleck and embraced the new culture, there's not enough talent or depth on hand. The lineup is full of underclassmen, injuries are mounting and more redshirts were pulled in Saturday's loss to Maryland. Minnesota's extreme youth will continue to wear down as it navigates the rugged conference season. The secondary is the greenest and thinnest unit, which could make a Purdue team that's the only pass-first attack left on the Gophers' schedule a good place to start fading this bunch. Don't be deceived by either the defense's solid pass defense numbers or the shutdown performance versus pass-happy Middle Tennessee, which was missing its record-setting quarterback and All-America wideout. The Gophers are ripe to get whacked and this is precisely the place that it’ll happen.
Purdue is 2-2 but could just as easily be 4-0. The Boilermakers two victories were against Ohio (44-21) and Mizzou (35-3) but we’re going to focus on their two losses. The Boilermakers held a fourth quarter lead over Louisville and last year’s Heisman-winning quarterback Lamar Jackson in Week 1 before letting it slip away in a 35-28 loss. It was a similar story against Michigan in Week 4, when Purdue led 10-7 at halftime and appeared poised to pull the Top 10 upset but were shutout in the second half, as the Wolverines pulled away to escape West Lafayette with a hard-fought victory. In summarizing, Purdue’s two losses were against Michigan and Louisville and they held a lead in both games for prolonged stretches. There is renewed optimism in Jeff Brohm’s first year at the helm, as Purdue is loaded with offensive talent that has proven can trade punches with some of the best. This is a massive step down in class for a Boilermakers’ bunch that is not like previous editions. This edition is tough-minded, confident and focused and should have no trouble at all putting away this grossly overvalued visitor.
Kansas State +6½ over TEXAS
The Wildcats are an afterthought in this market. Two weeks ago, K-State lost 14-7 to a Vanderbilt team that has been absolutely destroyed in back-to-back weeks. KSU followed that up with a 33-20 victory over Baylor last week but that holds no weight in this market because the Bears are being billed as a complete mess this season not to mention the biggest disappointment among Power-5 schools. The Wildcats other two victories were against Central Arkansas and Charlotte. K-State is an under the radar team this year that has not been featured, noticed or watched while the Longhorns are one of the most talked about programs in America. The media is keeping a close eye on the Longhorns. The last time we saw Texas, they won on National TV against Iowa State and covered. Two weeks ago, as a 24-point pooch at USC, Texas nearly pulled off the upset of the year before they lost by three lousy points.
The Longhorns' showing in the Coliseum will impress some enough to dismiss the ugly opening loss to Maryland as an anomaly and consider them a top-25 team. Whether you're bullish or bearish on Texas' long-term prospects under Tom Herman, remind yourself that this is still a major overhaul of both roster and culture. There will be some more rough moments in 2017 for a squad that lacks an offensive identity, is still learning how to prepare, has yet to become player-led rather than coach-led, and lacks maturity when it comes to attention to detail and avoiding unforced errors. Selling Texas is more of a short-term move. The Longhorns had an open date to marinate in their moral victory at USC but the following four-game stretch versus Iowa State, Kansas State and both Oklahoma schools is a tough one given where the program is in its development. One win in those four games seems more likely than two and Texas already has that win. K-State outright gets this call but we’ll scoop up the sweet points. You should too.
Iowa State +31 over OKLAHOMA
There are some analysts that have stated that #3 Oklahoma is a serious threat to both Clemson and Alabama, the two teams ranked above them in the polls. ‘Bama and Clemson are possible contestants the Sooners can encounter if they qualify for the College Football Playoff, which many proclaim is a strong possibility. We are not here to argue whether that is the case or not but all that talk does is further inflate the stock of OU, which in turn means one will pay a hefty price to back them here. As a whole, the Sooners are one of college football’s titans. A team with a renowned reputation for supremacy. Very simply, they are one of the most prestigious institutions in the game. In the grand scheme of their Big 12 history against Iowa State, the Sooners have lost just five matches dating back to 1928. The last time OU was beat in Norman by ISU was in 1990. Furthermore, the Sooners have also won the last 18 in a row against Iowa State. All of these anecdotes are irrelevant to this game, but they nevertheless create a psychological perception that once again nudges this market to spot the big number.
Additionally, Iowa State comes in off a 10-point loss when they hosted Texas last Thursday in a primetime contest many viewed across the country. Though this was the same team that took Iowa to overtime in the Battle of the Cy-Hawk Trophy, Iowa State appears to many as a typical Iowa State that Oklahoma has beat up on for nearly two decades now. With Oklahoma well-rested off a bye, the Sooners are positioned to have their way with the Cyclones yet again in the 2017 edition of their annual contest. However, we’re betting that ISU comes in under the number.
It just so happens that the Sooners will meet with the Texas Longhorns next Saturday in Dallas and one can’t help but wonder if they will be caught looking ahead. The Red River Rivalry game is one that has been a source of trouble for the Sooners, as of late. In 2015, Oklahoma was upset by Texas as an 18-point choice. In 2016, Oklahoma won the feud by a score of 45-40 but they had a lot of trouble putting Bevo away, even when they were yet another double-digit favorite at the close. With the Red River Rivalry game being such a pivotal one for OU’s campaign for a Big 12 title retention and College Football Playoff berth, it is very possible that coach Lincoln Riley will not want to show Texas too much on tape nor expose his starters to injuries if this one is in the bag early. Contrary to what some may believe, Iowa State is a much-improved football team compared to years’ past and their offense can certainly generate a backdoor cover in junk time, if need be. We’re not counting on a backdoor cover, we’re merely pointing out that it exists. Oklahoma has barely broken a sweat against ISU in the past, which is the real key here. The Sooners are likely going to save that sweat for Texas next week.
UL-Lafayette +194 over IDAHO
Adopting a contrarian ideology, we champion the importance of buying low. Teams’ whose stock has fallen through the floor bode tremendous value from time to time with the challenge being to find the right time to step in. Perhaps no team in America typifies this more than the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns. Lafayette are owners to the worst scoring defense in all the land, as they allow an average of 53.8 points per game. Additionally, this outfit has lost its last three contests overall and has yet to cover this year. Furthermore, the Cajuns have yet to beat an FBS opponent in 2017. All of these narratives create a vividly negative perception of this football team and as a result, no one wants a part of them. As a whole, teams of this caliber often come accompanied with enhanced points but this number appears curiously low to us. That’s our prompt to move in.
Some markets opened with the Vandals spotting just two points to the Ragin’ Cajuns. With Idaho covering their last two and Lafayette being one of the most unappealing teams in the country to get behind, the chalk looks too easy here. After all, the Vandals came in under a 17-point cushion at Western Michigan and followed that up with an outright win in overtime when they travelled to South Alabama last week as a seven-point pup. However, teams’ that come in off hard-fought wins are usually a great team to fade. While Idaho may have came up with a big win against the Jaguars, that emotional win will likely cause a letdown here. Let’s not forget this is the same Idaho team that had its doors blown off by UNLV in Moscow as a four-point choice three weeks ago. The stock was high on the Vandals then too.
Lafayette has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Though they lost to Monroe, Lafayette took some positives away from that affair. The Cajuns’ notoriously porous defense was able to generate the stops it needed to keep the game close enough to be within striking distance. The Cajuns trailed by as much as 16 points against Monroe but never relinquished the critical points to put the game out of reach. In spite of everything, Lafayette forced two overtimes before they ran out of gas. Now it’s the Vandals that are coming off a double OT game last week against South Alabama in which they managed to score just 29 points.
Bad favorites are teams that perform the role of favorite rarely, and unreliably. Expansion has overpopulated the bottom tier of the FBS, and consequently there are plenty of really poor teams being asked to win by a margin. The bad-favorite archetype is a program that hasn't won much at all the past several years, let alone posted winning seasons. Rarely favored to win, its players are accustomed to losing. These teams aren't good enough to play four mistake-free quarters, lack explosive playmakers, aren't accustomed to playing with leads and haven't had enough experience closing out games. Any victory is usually hard-earned. These are not the teams you want to get behind and this low opening price on the dog strongly suggests to us that visitor is in line to pull off the upset.
Brandon Shively
Kent State vs. Northern Illinois
Pick: Northern Illinois -22.5
Kent State played a tough non conference schedule, so give them that. However, this team is still atrocious.
The Golden Flashes rank near the bottom in almost every defensive category and have allowed 35.4 points against this season.
Offensively, they just have no spark. They threw for literally one pass yard against Clemson early this season and looked horrendous against Buffalo last week.
NIU has a nice balanced offense that should really fluster Kent. On top of all that, this NIU team ranks 15th overall in total defense this year.
This one could get ugly.
Power Sports
Wisconsin vs. Nebraska
Pick: Nebraska +10.5
Maybe, just maybe, we were all too quick to write off the Mike Riley era in Lincoln. Yes, his AD was fired less than three weeks ago. But that does not guarantee he'll also be shown the door. Granted, things were not looking good after an outright loss to Northern Illinois (had 384-213 edge in total yds in that game) and I also faded them at Rutgers, another game they failed to cover. But last week, they "showed up" and easily dispatched Illinois, winning 28-6 as 6.5-pt road favorites.
Now it's a return to Lincoln where the 'Huskers will be double digit underdogs for the 1st time this decade! In fact, it's just the fourth time in the last 10 years that they've been getting points at home. While the program may no longer be at its "peak," it is certainly worth pointing out that they've won 20 consecutive home night games. Now you can justify the price range by pointing to the opponent (unbeaten Wisconsin), but note that the Cornhuskers have played the Badgers tough each of the last two years, losing by only two here at home in '15 and then taking the game to OT last year in Madison.
It took some time for the Nebraska defense to adjust to Bob Diaco's 3-4 scheme, but they are much improved over the last 2.5 games and the raw numbers don't tell the full story. If you take away a TRIO of pick six's against them, the Blackshirts are allowing an average of just 7.7 PPG over the L14 quarters. Wisconsin's offense, which put up big numbers in the non-conference portion of the sked, was held to only 303 yds LW at home by Northwestern. I look for a close game Saturday night in Lincoln.
Harry Bondi
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-23) over Kent State
Huge step down in class here for Northern Illinois. Two weeks ago, the Huskies went to Nebraska as a double-digit dog and pulled off the upset. Last week as another hefty dog, they totally outplayed San Diego State in a 34-28 loss while catching 11 points, but would have won that game outright if not for allowing the opening kickoff to be returned for a TD and a pick-6 later in the game. Meanwhile, Kent State is right up there with San Jose State as one of the worst teams in the country. In four games against FBS schools this season, the Spartans are 0-4 both SU and ATS and have been outscored 146-19! They are also 1-10 in this series in the last 11 meetings with just two covers. Lay the lumber!
The Real Animal
Western Michigan -6.5
128 teams in the FBS and last year Kent was #126 in total offense. So far this year #122. But that didn't stop the Golden Flashes last week from putting up 444 total yards against Buffalo. That came after Buffalo allowed 31 points and 412 total yards to Florida Atlantic.Remember the Bison lost to Army this year in a game they were outrushed 3222-119. Western Michigan played competitive football with USC and Michigan State on the road and then won their next three games including a 55-3 blowout of Ball State last week as a 12 1/2-point favorite. In last year's meeting WMU beat Buffalo 38-0 as a 35-point favorite.This seems like tremendous value only giving a touchdown this year with the Broncos. QB Joe Wassink is completing 61 percent with a 7-0 ratio in his last three games and the Broncos have three legitimate threats at running back averaging 5.1, 4.4, and 7.1 yards per carry. This team has a dozen rushing touchdowns on the season so far and you know it's legit when they put up 263 rushing yards against the Trojans in week #1. Buffalo only threw for 142 last week and now QB Tyree Jackson is listed as doubtful meaning Drew Anderson (27 attempts) will likely get the start. When you get outgained by 67 yards against Kent it's a sure sign of trouble (along with allowing 444 yards to the Golden Flashes).
Nelly
Eastern Michigan + over Toledo
Eastern Michigan is 2-2 but not far from 4-0 with a double-overtime loss and last week's four-point miss at Kentucky. The Eagles are one of the nation's worst rushing teams but the passing game has been productive and the defense has been very tough, including allowing just 3.5 yards per rush. Toledo won 35-20 last season in Ypsilanti with clear edges and this will be homecoming for the Rockets. Toledo was off last week following a 22-point loss to Miami that was much closer than the final most of the way. The 3-0 start for Toledo deserves some scrutiny however as narrow wins over Nevada and Tulsa are not carrying much weight. Logan Woodside has great numbers leading the Rockets but the running game has disappointed despite the soft schedule and Eastern Michigan looks like a threat. Toledo has covered in just three of the last 10 games as a home favorite despite the Glass Bowl having a reputation as a very tough place to play. Turnovers helped the cause in a still competitive win for Toledo last season and the Rockets have seen the wins over Nevada and Tulsa become significantly devalued.
OC Dooley
Kansas +15.5
At most offshore locations this game opened with Texas Tech as a full 17 point favorite which made sense since the team is already 3-0-1 ATS out of the gate, but that drop in the number towards one of the worst program's in the land has caught my attention. Texas Tech is in a classic emotional "letdown" position as they had a nationally televised game last week (on the main Fox network with #1 team announcers) hosting mighty Oklahoma State. After pounding lowly Kansas by a 55-19 count a year ago (primetime on a Thursday at home) odds are Texas Tech will not take the Jayhawks seriously. However the last time visit the Red Raiders made to this location was two years ago when Kansas (0-15 skid at the time) battled back from a 20 point deficit prior to halftime and pulled to within THREE points with 7:00 remaining. Kansas ended up losing that game by a ten-point count only due to an interception return for touchdown. My research indicates that HOME UNDERDOGS (getting 10' to 21 points) in conference games with 8+ returning starters on offense including the quarterback have successfully COVERED the spread 62% of the time (162-98) spanning the past 25 years. In that same TWENTY FIVE YEAR time span after consecutive games where the team gained 450+ yards each time Kansas has gone an outstanding 12-2 ATS
SPORTS WAGERS
Winnipeg/CALGARY Over 5½
Now what? After a revolving door of goaltenders ever since they entered the league as the Atlanta Thrashers way back when, the now Winnipeg Jets went out and signed Steve Mason to solve their issues. The Jets savior (Mason) lasted one period against the Maple Leafs on Wednesday before being yanked in favor of Connor Hellebucyk. When you have a bunch of idiots running a franchise, success will never come. While the Maple Leafs have picked up Curtis McElhinney and Calvin Pickard for virtually nothing over the last six months (both are 100 times better than Mason), the Jets were hunting down Steve Mason, perhaps the most overpaid goaltender in NHL history that has maybe 25 good games over his 464 career starts. The Jets dominated the Maple Leafs in the first period on Wednesday night but then over the course of 2:38 late in that period, Steve Mason was tagged for three goals and the Jets were once again down by a large margin, which is something they’re accustomed to. In the year 2058, Coach Paul Maurice still won’t stick to one goaltender and ride him out. He’ll continue to revolve them until all three have lost whatever little confidence they did have. The Winnipeg Jets are loaded with offensive talent that are going to have to win games 6-5 or 8-4. The Flames can score goals too.
We’re very focused on going over these totals until the market adjusts. We went 1-2 last night but Columbus had a 5-0 lead over the Islanders after two and all we needed was one more goal. It never came but we’re seeing a lot of penalties and scoring chances and we’ll continue to attack totals that are too low. This is one of those.
CAROLINA -½ +132 over Minnesota
Regulation only. Minnesota opened the year with a 4-2 loss in Detroit and while it’s just one game, we have to take note of it. A lot of Minnesota's core players are in their 30s, and a decline has already started for some, including Zach Parise, who failed to hit the 20-goal mark in a full season for the first time since his rookie year and had injury troubles in camp. Eric Staal's numbers had plummeted before last season, and there's worry that he could slide backward after his rebirth season. Although Ryan Suter has shown no signs of slowing down, he'll turn 33 in January and has played the most minutes in the NHL since 2012-13, his first season with the Wild. Minnesota’s lack of production is very reliant on preventing goals and we don’t see where they have improved defensively.
A well respected friend of ours with outstanding hockey knowledge, who really liked the Wild last year, is turned off by them this year. Our friend does not like the Marco Scandella and forward Jason Pominville to the Buffalo Sabres for Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno deal. We’re also not sold on Devan Dubnyk, who got hot for an extended period of time after a decade of mediocrity prior. Dubnyk struggled down the stretch last season with a 9-10-2 record and .901 save percentage in his last 22 games. That’s the Dubnyk we all know that spent most of the past decade as a backup or in the minors. We’ll see how things play out in Minnesota but this wager is more about getting behind another team that is also on the verge of a major breakout.
Eight years removed from their last postseason appearance, the Hurricanes have amassed a boatload of young talent thanks to all of their high draft picks. This offseason, general manager Ron Francis acquired a goalie on the rise in Scott Darling. Coach Bill Peters has done a solid job of developing his young players and is going into his fourth year behind the Hurricanes bench.The Canes have built one of the league’s most dynamic defensive corps, with an impressive top four of Noah Hanifin, Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, and Brett Pesce. They have two rock solid scoring lines and it would surprise nobody if their third line scores too. The ‘Canes are not messing around this year. They are going for it big time and thus, this first game on opening night in Carolina is a big deal. The fan base there is getting tired of waiting and the organization is now putting a ton of emphasis on this season. The brass has set up this squad to succeed and we’ll trust the players to execute and bring a ton of energy into this opener.
Buffalo +111 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. The Islanders opened their year with a 5-0 loss in Columbus last night and looked rather lifeless in doing so. While we expect a much better performance tonight, it’s not likely going to matter. The Islanders have some nice pieces in place, most notably, John Tavares, Josh Bailey, Anders Lee and Nick Leddy. Isles fans also caught a glimpse of stud prospect Joshua Ho-Sang and they did get hot for a stretch last year before missing the playoffs by a single point but there are issues to be sure. Jordan Eberle was acquired in a trade with the Oilers but the biggest move of the off-season was sending away Travis Hamonic. That hurts and it also hurts that the Isles do not have stable goaltending. Tomas Greiss was in net last night and Joroslav Halak will be in goal tonight. Weak goaltending loses more games than anything else and we wouldn’t trust Halak for a second. There are also the two elephants in the room. John Tavares has yet to sign on the dotted line in what could be a very lucrative contract extension. The team captain has openly stated he wants to stay with the Islanders but leaving a sour taste in his mouth doesn’t do anybody any good. The extension has not happened yet. It matters and it negatively affects everyone. The other elephant in the room is the arena situation. The Barclays Center experiment is a huge failure. Attendance is low, ice conditions are bad and the atmosphere is morgue-like. As the chalk, at least for now, we’ll pass on the Islanders.
There are also the two elephants in the room. John Tavares has yet to sign on the dotted line in what could be a very lucrative contract extension. The team captain has openly stated he wants to stay with the Islanders but leaving a sour taste in his mouth doesn’t do anybody any good. The extension has not happened yet. It matters and it negatively affects everyone. The other elephant in the room is the arena situation. The Barclays Center experiment is a huge failure. Attendance is low, ice conditions are bad and the atmosphere is morgue-like. As the chalk, at least for now, we’ll pass on the Islanders.
We were high on the Sabres most of last year and are even higher on them this year. The Sabres might be the league’s most undervalued squad that is truly on the verge of a breakout. In the 2017 offseason, the Sabres officially became Jack Eichel’s team. Amid reports that the 20-year-old phenom wouldn’t sign an extension as long as Dan Bylsma was the Sabres coach, owners Terry and Kim Pegula (smartly) hitched their wagon to Eichel, firing Bylsma and GM Tim Murray and replacing them with first-time head coach Phil Housley and Pittsburgh Penguins front-office alum Jason Botterill. Housley is a rookie as an NHL bench boss, but the ex-Sabre has played in 1,495 NHL games with previous head coaching gigs at the high school and international levels. Housley also spent the last four seasons running the defense as an assistant with the Nashville Predators.
The young core of players Murray established—Sam Reinhart, Zemgus Girgensons, and Rasmus Ristolainen—are heading into their third, fourth, and fifth years in the league, respectively, and they should start playing with more intelligence and consistency. Kyle Okposo, Evander Kane, and standout center Ryan O’Reilly are still on the roster. Marco Scandella, a solid defenseman and former Buffalo legend Jason Pominville joined the team in a trade when Botterill shipped longtime Sabres Marcus Foligno and Tyler Ennis off to Minnesota. And then there’s Eichel, who’s entering his third season after a second that was unfortunately truncated by a high ankle sprain. (He returned after missing the first two months of the season and managed to lead the team in scoring anyway.) This guy is good—a player with sick hands and sneaky speed whose skills transcend the eye test. Buffalo outplayed, outshot and outworked the Habs in its 3-2 opening night OT loss. Carey Price was the difference. Jaroslav Halak won’t be the difference here.
King Creole
West Virginia / TCU Over 67.5
This BIG 12 Conference game opened with a OU line of 69 points. It went down to 67 points, this is the line that I got when I bet it. Here on Friday afternoon, it is showing signs of perhaps going back up again. So get your play in ASAP. It has all the makings of a usual Big 12 SHOOTOUT. In fact, it turns out that ESPN’s ‘College GameDay’ show is coming to Cowtown (Fort Worth) to hype this game. That should crank up the excitement meter big-tome for the rabid Frog’s fan base.
We’ve had this game on our OU ‘radar’ for about 10 days now. Both teams come in well rested, as both TCU and WEST VIRGINIA last played on September 23rd. So there has been plenty of time to dissect this game in our database. West Virginia’s last game was a big road win over Kansas. The OU line in that one was 71 points. Final score was West Virginia 56 - Kansas 34. The OVER cashed by +19 points. It was not surprising that the Mountaineers once again hot the 50-point mark. What WAS surprising was that they gave up 34 points (and a whopping 564 yards to a pretty bad Jayhawk team. On the flip side,TCU’s last game was also on the Big 12 road… against a previously undefeated Oklahoma State team. The Cowboys were basically NEVER in that game, and TCU pulled off a stunning road upset win as underdogs of +11 points. The OU line in that one was 69 points. Final score was TCU 44 - Oklahoma State 31. Another OVER winner.
So what do you get when we match up the #2 scoring offense (WEST VA: 49 points per game) versus the #3 scoring offense (TCU: 48 points per game)? You get a SHOOTOUT. Our database models suggest that we could see anywhere from 76 to 90 total points in this game. This is a serious that has had a gaggle of nail-biting finishes since they big joined the Big 12. In the last five years, there has been two OVERTIME games (which Over bettors LOVE)… and three games in which the ‘Victor’ won by 3 points or less. Not only that, but TCU is playing this one with REVENGE from a 24-point road loss last year. Against a POOR West Virginia defense that is ranked #108 in the country (allowing 452 yards per game), TCU should have no sweat getting to 45 or more points. And with an offense that’s averaging an amazing 596 yards per game (#2 in the country), WEST VIRGINIA should have no problem getting to 30 or more points.
Based on the current pointspread and OU line, the predicted final score in this game is: TCU 41 - West Virginia 27.
Our database models and simulations disagree with those projections. The conservative estimate from our database is:
TCU HORNED FROGS 45
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS 31
That’s a difference of about 8.5 points. Any College game that’s 6-9.5 points higher or lower than the current OU line.
Frank Sawyer
Miami-FL vs. Florida St
Play: Under 45½
Miami (3-0 enters this rivalry game after their 31-6 win at Duke last week. The Hurricanes have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road. Florida State (1-2) earned their first win of the season last week with their 26-19 win at Wake Forest. The Seminoles have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record, Florida State has played 9 of these games Under the Total.