John Ryan
Arkansas vs. South Carolina
Play: Arkansas -3
Arkansas travels to Columbia to take on a beat up South Carolina team coming off a tough loss at
Texas A&M last week. Arkansas has the advantage in the trenches with a physical running game and QB Austin Allen has been efficient in the passing game and brings experience for these type of conference road games. Kentucky wore down the Gamecock defense in a similar role a couple of weeks ago and we look for a similar result today as Arkansas goes on the road to get a big conference win. Take the Hogs and lay the 1 12
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following data query has gone 43-16 hitting 81% winners and has made $2,540 per $100 wager units/unit wagered since 1992.
Play against home teams.
With a line of +3 to -3.
After going under the total by 21 or more points last 3 games.
The following data query has gone 81-39 ATS hitting 68% winners and has made $3,810 per $100 wager since 2013.
Play on road teams.
After outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards.
And now facing an opponent that was outrushed by 125 or more yards in last game.
Methodology Discussion Points
If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Arkansas.
Scott Rickenbach
Saskatchewan vs. Toronto
Play: Saskatchewan +2½
This line has moved on this game from a pick to now having the Roughriders as 2.5 point dog. This movement is offering great line value to a Saskatchwan team that has gone 4-1 in games against the East Division this season. Toronto has gone only 1-5 against the West Division this season. Also, the Argonauts are off of an emotional overtime win over a divisional foe last week. The Roughriders played a non-divisional foe last week. Also, Saskatchewan has a rest edge as they played on Friday last week while the Argos did play on Saturday. Toronto is 2-9 (both SU and ATS) when off of a win over a division rival. The Roughriders 4-1 record against the East this season is both an ATS and SU mark. Simply put there is a lot of line value here for the road dog in this one and I am grabbing it!
Brad Diamond
Louisiana Tech vs. UAB
Play: UAB +10½
The Blazers brought back little experience from last season so, we can't expect them to win SU as a double-digit underdog. However, Louisiana Tech just might be a little flat knowing the opposition, while showing 0-4 ATS after a bye week. Remember UAB at home is being completely disregarded in Vegas because of their lack of returning starters. The Blazers do show 4-0 ATS off a loss.
ASA
Arkansas at South Carolina
Play: Arkansas -2.5
As far as scheduling is concerned this is a must win for the Razorbacks and Brett Bielema as his upcoming games are brutal with Alabama and Auburn looming. This two teams have played similar strength of schedules and but Arkansas is vastly superior offensively, while SC has a slight advantage defensively. The Razorbacks are 59th in the nation in total offense averaging 406YPG. South Carolina has had several key injuries offensively and currently rank 100 out of 130 schools in total ‘O’ with just 338YPG. SC can’t run the football (121st @ 86.8YPG) while Arkansas can (38th @ 195YPG). The Gamecocks scoring offense is also skewed as they benefited from several special team scores early on and a few big plays, or their 22.3PPG average would be worse than it is. These two defenses allow right around 406YPG and are 71st and 74th in the nation in total ‘D’ so there isn’t a drastic difference between the two. The Hogs will use their rushing advantage here to grind away a road win over the Gamecocks. The Chalk in this series has covered 7 of the last eight.
Bob Balfe
Akron -6
Ball State lost a lot of defensive talent from their team last year as it showed last week against Western Michigan. On Offense Ball State didn’t return much talent either and they key guys they did return are all out of this game today with injury. James Gilbert is a big part of this running game so without him this team is lost. Riley Neal is out with a leg injury and Corey Lacanaria is out at wide receiver. This team is just hurting badly due to injury and young talent. Akron has a little bit better of an offensive line and more talented skill players in this game. Look for the Zips to get the home win by throwing the ball all over this defense.
Wunderdog
Nashville @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Under 6
This is a rematch from last year's postseason when Nashville took the Penguins to six games before succumbing 2-0 in Game Six. Both teams are trying to bounce back from losses as the Predators lost to Boston on Thursday when Pekka Rinne made 28 saves on 31 shots. Rinne finished with a 2.42 goals-against average and .918 save percentage last season. Matt Murray looks to atone for the season opener when the Penguins lost 5-4 in overtime as he made 28 saves. Murray was called into action Thursday as his team was routed by the Chicago Blackhawks. Murray had a 2.41 goals-against average and .923 save percentage in 49 games in 2016-17. Nashville is 13-4-4 UNDER its last 21 games with one day of rest.
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