Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, October 8th, 2016

Bruce Marshall

So Mississippi at Tex San Antonio
Pick: So Mississippi

We're going to invoke the Ted Cruz filibuster to prevent us from assuming any upgrades at UTSA under new HC Wilson following recent beat down loss at ODU. Accomplished road warrior USM (11-3 vs. points last 14 as visitor) has established its chops behind accomplished sr. QB Mullens, whose 591 YP led a school-record 702-yard offensive assault last week vs. Rice!

Sleepyj

Texas +10

According to my number this is the best number we might get here...I had this one at Texas +6....So getting +10 is a bet I have to make...Longhorns coming off a loss will help them a bit, but the defense for Texas have reverted back to being bad...Charlie Strong will have his kids up and ready for this one i'm sure....These teams have played tough so many times it's tough to lay this number with the Sooners...Oklahoma hasn't shown me enough to slow down anybody...They have allowed 46,45,17,33 points in 4 games...The Texas offense can score, it's up to the defense to get a few stops...I think with the big game atmosphere the Longhorns make a few stops that are needed to keep us within the number...Not big on either team right now, but this number indicates a small wager on my part..I'll go with it.

Ohio -14

I actually broke this game down last Thursday before they even played last week..I was hoping for some good results from both teams and I got just what I wanted...Fact is these teams are very far apart.....Syracuse HC Dino Babers - former Bowling Green HC new this team was going to be bad this year...It's was hard to imagine the Bowling Green program being better in any shape or form from last year...Babers knew this and made out of town looking great, he left behind a team that was super thin in every area...Ohio head coach Frank Solich must think this game is a must win IMO...Ohio has a very favorable schedule the next three games..If they can run the table in the next three, they stand a very good chance of getting into a bowl game this year....Solich will have his team ready for this one at home....Bowling Green has one of the worst offensive teams and the worst defensive teams...It's going to be tough facing Ohio who is pretty even across the board....Ohio is coming off a dull road performance at Mia-Ohio.....Well I think Miami-Ohio is a better team from last year and I'm not surprised it was close...I was hoping for that....Bowling Green faced off against EMU who IMO isn't all that great..They got a few wins on the year, but nothing that says EMU should have beat up BG...So I was happy they kept it tight in that game....I was waiting for this line and i had this one spot on for the drop....Notice the line has indicated the number is moving to BG...Keep an eye on this one if you want 13.5...I fully expect a move to that number then the money to poor in on Ohio...Just a classic head fake here and Ohio will go off near -16 I think....I doubt the number is a factor in this game, but we need to make good bets...So just be patient and wait for the 13.5 to surface.....The problem I see for BG is the balance that the Bobcats bring to the table...They can mix it up with the run and pass....QB Greg Windham has been rather good this year.....Just shy of 1,00 yards passing with 7Td and 2 int's.....His big target is Jordan Reed and i expect both of these two to have big time games here....Ohio loves to run the rock as well and BG rush defense ranks 114th...So stopping the run won't be easy and with these two throwing and catching passes, I expect the Bobcats to lay it on thick here...Ohio defense has always been solid under Solich and this year they rank 22nd in rush defense....So BG will have to throw the ball a ton here...I think BG throwing the ball will only get them in deeper trouble...BG QB Jimmy Morgan on has 1 Td on the year and 4 int's...he will force a few throws here and Solich's boys will get us some turnovers...BG overall passing is ranked 80th..So i'm not worried here with either side of the ball with BG...Another key area as we just spoke about is turnovers....Ohio has been very good taking care of the ball..They rank in the top 20 teams with not turning the ball over...BG on the other hand ranks 2nd to last at 126th in the country...All they do is give the other team the ball....It will happen again and everything else I see says a blowout win for Ohio....I got this one 41-17 Bobcats....I'm curious of this total comes out near 55-58 area...I'm on the Bobcats strong here.

DAVE COKIN

ARMY VS. DUKE
PLAY: ARMY +4

Weather could come into play here. There’s likely to be some big wind for this game thanks to a hurricane, and if that’s the case I want to be on the team that runs the football and also stops the run. Actually, both these teams have been reasonably effective in that area defensively. But Army and its option attack definitely would have the offensive overland advantage.

That’s not the only thing I like here. The Cadets laid a really rotten egg against a bad Buffalo team. But they’ve had two weeks to get over that calamity and Army will have a major revenge motive here. They got absolutely crushed at home last season by the Blue Devils and I’m a fan of backing rested avengers.

I played against Duke this past Saturday as I thought the Notre Dame upset was a monster fluke and I’m not really high at all on this year’s Blue Devils. I think the games against Virginia, Northwestern and Wake Forest are more reflective of the true level of this season’s squad.

As far as the numbers are concerned, I see the game being lined right about where it should be in terms of power rankings. But that doesn’t take into consideration the scheduling dynamics, the major revenge situation or the aforementioned weather forecast. I see all those aspects pointing to the Cadets side of the equation. I’ll go ahead and take the available points with Army.

Harry Bondi

UTEP -5 over Florida International

Huge letdown spot here for the Panthers, who scored a thrilling 33-31 win over in-state rival Florida Atlantic last week. This is a program that’s won just three of its last 18 away games and is not accustomed to winning, as seen by its 2-9 record the last four seasons in the week after a straight-up victory. Miners enter on a four-game losing streak and are desperate for a win, so they won’t take this one for granted.

DAVE COKIN

NOTRE DAME VS NC STATE
PLAY: NC STATE -2

I’m usually pretty adept at sizing up which way the lines will move, but I got this one wrong. My initial take was that Notre Dame would remain the road favorite for the game with North Carolina State, but the sharp money showed early on the Wolfpack and they are now the favorite.

That said, I agree with the move. This looks like a favorable matchup for the home team, as they have a good running game and red hot quarterback facing a very questionable Notre Dame defense.

Ryan Finley is on fire for NC State. Finley is a grad transfer from Boise State, and he is tearing it up in Raleigh thus far. 84/116, 1009 yards, nine TD’s and zero picks. Granted, Finley didn’t put up those stats against the greatest defenses on the planet. But it’s not like he’s facing the Minnesota Vikings this Saturday, either.

The Wolfpack are also running the football well, and the Irish haven’t been winning in the trenches this season. So it looks to me like NC State will have a good chance to succeed offensively on Saturday.

As for Notre Dame’s offense, it’s a good one and the Irish are going to put points on the board this Saturday. The weather conditions could impact the scoring on both sides to some extent, but let’s just say I’m still not expecting a defensive slugfest here.

I also think this is a bigger game for NC State. Hosting Notre Dame is always a big event, and that’s for every team in the country. But I’m just not sure how excited the Irish actually are for anything right now. They’re 2-3 following last week’s win against Syracuse, and Notre Dame is already way, way out of the playoff picture. I think it’s reasonable to suggest Notre Dame might have more interest in their home revenge date next Saturday vs. Stanford than they’ll have for this game.

If Notre Dame was favored here, I would absolutely have North Carolina State on my Saturday ticket. As it stands now, with the line being where it is, I’m leaving it off as I hate intentionally getting the worst of it on the number. But I definitely prefer North Carolina State here, and there’s still a chance I might add it to my card at some point.

Jeff Allen

Iowa St vs. Oklahoma St
Play: Over 66

Expecting a real shoot out here between two teams that don't play a whole lot of defense. The Cyclones are ranked N0.102 in total defense and No.123 against the run allowing better than 261 yards a game. Okie State is No.86 against the run and No.100 against the pass to be No.98 overall. The Clones gave Baylor all it wanted last week but was shredded for 469 rushing yards, not a good sign with Cowboy frosh RB sensation Hill coming to town.

Sean Murphy

San Francisco at New York
Play: San Francisco -102

The Giants always seem to find their way into the mix for the N.L. crown and here they are again, playing in a one-game Wild Card showdown against the Mets on Wednesday night in Queens. I like their chances of advancing to the NLDS with Madison Bumgarner on the hill.

Bumgarner has proven to be one of the best playoff performers in recent history and I expect to see him add another chapter to his storied career on Wednesday night. After stumbling against the Padres (but still guiding his team to a victory) two starts back he rebounded with a terrific outing against the Dodgers last Friday night, giving up three earned runs over 7 1/3 effective innings. The Giants have given him plenty of offensive support this season, particularly on the road, where he owns a winning record and a solid 3.39 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Bumgarner has given up one earned run or less in four of his six career starts against New York.

Noah Syndergaard will counter for the Mets. Despite pitching well, he only managed to post a .500 record at home during the regular season, largely due to a lack of run support. That could be an issue again on Wednesday. While Syndergaard did toss eight shutout innings against the Giants in a victory back on August 21st in San Francisco, he's winless in two career home starts against them.

The Giants won't be fazed by heading across the country for this one-game showdown. Note that they've posted a winning record away from home this season and I'm confident this seasoned club will be moving on to face the Cubs in the NLDS.

Rob Veno

Syracuse at Wake Forest
Play: Wake Forest -3

Game time of 7 pm local on Saturday night is important here because rain figures to be a significant factor due to the looming tropical storm. That should make this a very sloppy track which likely bothers the extreme tempo of Syracuse. Rain is projected to be steady on Saturday and intensify as the day goes on brings ball handling on each end of the passing game into play. I expect Dino Babers to level his play calling a bit and work in more of the ground game. The Fieldturf surface here at BB&T Field doesn’t present the same degree of offensive limitation that natural grass would but nonetheless the steady rain will probably dictate some changes.

Wake Forest has been solid on the ground this season against foes who they can push around and the Syracuse run defense fits that bill (205 ypg allowed). The Demon Deacons play calling percentages is just a tick over 60/40 for the season and they will use the run to shorten the game and keep the clock moving. Syracuse has the ability to be successful on the ground as well but Wake’s rush defense which is allowing just 110 ypg could prove difficult. Wake Forest did give up a season high 201 yards on 5.9 ypc to NC State last week but the Wolfpack have more of a power style ground attack. What may be more important is that the Deacons held up tempo Indiana to 115 yards on 3.6 ypc and in the process ended IU starting running back Devine Redding’s five-game streak of 100+ yards.

While preventing Syracuse from playing up-tempo isn’t going to happen, the weather conditions should curb it and the effectiveness of their passing game. That will be enough for the Wake Forest ground game and defense to take charge in this game. Power ratings suggest Wake Forest should be -4.5 so the price seems fair enough to recommend a play on the host Demon Deacons.

Alan Harris

Oklahoma / Texas Over 74

Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Oklahoma Sooners take on the Texas Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas in the Red River Shootout on Saturday afternoon. Oklahoma has posted a 6-2 record to the over in their last eight games following a straight up win and they have gone an excellent 9-3 to the over in their last 12 games overall dating back to the end of the 2015 season. They have also gone 5-2 to the over in their last seven games following a game where they scored 40 points or more and they have gone over the total in 20 of their last 26 games where they faced a Big 12 opponent. The Longhorns have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday afternoon as they have gone 4-1 to the over in their last five conference games and they have gone over the total in six of their last eight games overall. Throw in the fact that neither team has been able to get stops on D (TX allowing 38.3 PPG, OK allowing 35.2 PPG) and both teams can score at will (TX scoring 41.3 PPG, OK scoring 39.5 PPG) and we'll play the over as we expect both teams to go up and down the field for the full 60 minutes in Dallas on Saturday afternoon.

Robert Ferringo

Oklahoma State (-17) over Iowa State

I think that Iowa State is going to run into a wall. They laid it on the line last week against Baylor, nearly pulling the upset in a 45-42 loss that saw them get outscored 17-0 in the fourth quarter and lose at the buzzer on a 19-yard field goal. The Cyclones lost by 21 at TCU and by 39 at Iowa earlier this season, and this is the same Iowa State team that fell to FCS foe Northern Iowa to start the season. Oklahoma State is coming off an 18-point win over Texas and they will not be taking Iowa State lightly after last year's 35-31 dogfight. The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series and their last four home wins have come by 17, 21, 42 and 29 points. The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the home team is 8-2 ATS when these two teams get together. The Cowboys should roll here.

Jason Sharpe

San Diego State (-14) over UNLV

I really like the work that second-year head coach Tony Sanchez has done over at UNLV. Sanchez didn't have an easy task taking over a football program that had a two-win season in 4 of the 5 years prior to his arrival. Things are slowly changing for the better for the Rebels as they've already posted 2 wins this year and they played well in 2 of their 3 losses as well. This will be a tough spot, though, here for UNLV, as they have to travel to play an angry San Diego State squad this week. The Aztecs are coming off a bad loss last weekend at South Alabama, and for the second year in a row SDSU was outplayed by a South Alabama team that they were suppose to easily handle. The loss last year to USA was the big spark that ignited the flame for SDSU as they ended up winning 10 of their last 11 games, including going an undefeated 9-0 in Mountain West play. In fact, SDSU won all 8 of their regular-season conference games by 14 points or more, including a 52-14 thumping over UNLV. Look for a motivated Aztec team rejuvenated by the start of league play here and in defense of their conference championship. Take San Diego State minus the points here.

Indian Cowboy

South Carolina (+7.5) over Georgia

South Carolina really impressed in their game against Texas A&M. Note, that this team lost but they showed a lot of heart and one has to think that Muschamp is making a stamp on this team. This is a squad that has consistently gotten better each week. and though there was a lot of criticism of taking the re-tread coach, he is showing a lot of fight with this Gamecock team. In fact, their recruiting has been quite sound as well. South Carolina is 2-3 currently but lost to Texas A&M only by a score of 13-24, which is impressive. Just ask Arkansas after all. This team also has put together back-to-back losses and desperately needs a win or they fall to 2-4 overall. We are not saying South Carolina wins this game outright, but this is a desperate team, at home, at night, facing a Georgia squad that is hungover from a heartbreaking loss to Tennessee. We don't believe Georgia is over that loss yet, and we like South Carolina to be a quality active underdog and to hang tough. Note, the Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when facing a team with a losing record and the Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in South Carolina as well.

Bryan Leonard

Indiana vs. Ohio St
Play: Indiana +29

We can't say it very often but Kevin Wilson has owned Urban Meyer in this series. Since 2012 when Meyer came to town the Hoosiers have cashed by margins of 15 1/2, 19 1/2, 6 1/2 and 15 points. Just something about the Buckeyes has the Hoosiers playing above their collective heads. With the Indiana defense being much improved this season, and with Wisconsin on deck for the Buckeyes, we will continue to back Indiana in this series.

Teddy Covers

Oklahoma vs. Texas
Play: Over 73

To say that the Longhorns new uptempo offense has paid immediate dividends is something of an understatement. The Longhorns rank among the Top 10 teams in the country in pace ratings, averaging just shy of 85 plays per game.

Sterlin Gibert’s attack is averaging 38 points per game in regulation through their first four contests, behind the strong arm of Shane Buechele and the D’Onta Foreman/Chris Warren running back duo, combining to average nearly 6.5 yards per carry. And these aren’t padded numbers against bottom tier FCS schools or Sun Belt squads either – three of the Longhorns first four opponents were Power 5 conference bowl teams last year (Notre Dame, Cal and Oklahoma State).

Oklahoma is no stranger to playing uptempo football, even though their full season pace rating isn’t quite as high as that of Texas. The Sooners game against uptempo TCU last week produced 98 points, with both teams gaining more than 500 yards of offense. And there’s little reason to expect a dramatically different pace or result this week.

Sooners senior QB Baker Mayfield is coming off his best game of the season, completing 77% of his passes against TCU, throwing for two scores and rushing for two more. RB’s Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine have averaged 6.2 yards per carry. Four different receivers have caught passes of 60 yards or longer. And, like Texas, Oklahoma is battle tested, putting up these impressive offensive stats despite facing Houston, Ohio State and TCU in their first four contests.

Charlie Strong is taking over the Longhorns defense this week. I’m not expecting a dramatic improvement in one week from a defense that hasn’t stopped anybody all year, especially against an offense of this caliber. Oklahoma hasn’t been able to stop anybody either; not a defense loaded with NFL caliber talent. The Buckeyes and Horned Frogs have hung 45 and 46 on them in their last two weeks, and Texas is quite capable of approaching or exceeding that number.

So, to sum up. Both teams play uptempo on offense. Both teams are loaded with playmakers, capable of ‘quick strike’ touchdowns. Neither defense has shown the ability to stop potent attacks. And given the ultra- competitive nature of the Red River Rivalry, neither team is going to take their foot off the gas pedal, even with a lead. Put it all together and the Over is a clear choice for this bettor!