Wunderdog
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky
Pick: Vanderbilt +3.5
Vanderbilt is 3-2 ATS and has gotten the money its last two games with a 31-30 overtime win at Western Kentucky and a 13-6 loss as a 10-point underdog against Florida. Vandy outgained the Gators 265-236 and rushed for 147 yards on four yards per carry while holding Florida to just 2.6 yards per rush. Ralph Webb of the Commodores led all rushers with 110 yards on 24 carries. Vandy has the defensive edge in this matchup, allowing 409.2 yards per game compared to 474.8 for the Wildcats. The Commodores have given up 23.6 points per contest and Kentucky has allowed 35. The Wildcats started their season by giving up 40-plus points in each of their first three games before beating South Carolina and then getting crushed at Alabama last week. The Crimson Tide outyarded Kentucky 488-161 and Stephen Johnson was 13-of-22 for only 89 yards and no touchdowns. Vanderbilt has covered the last five meetings, including 21-17 last season as a three-point dog and the Commodores have covered the number in 15 of their last 22 road games. Kentucky is 3-10 ATS its last 13 games and 1-6 ATS after a loss. The Wildcats lost their last six games against FBS teams in 2015 and even with 15 returning starters, there doesn't appear to be much improvement this season. The Commodores have the defense to keep this one close, so take the points on Vanderbilt.
Scott Spreitzer
Maryland vs. Penn State
Play: Maryland -1
The Terps do two things we like, quite well. They run the ball and they stop the run. But the Terps have also slammed opposing passing games. Penn State has been a disappointment under HC James Franklin following his successful 3-year run at Vanderbilt. The Nittany Lions are "just what the doctor ordered" for Maryland to exact a little revenge (lost 31-30 last season). Penn State is horrible defending the run, ranked 105th in the nation, allowing 216.6 yards rushing per game. They're one-dimensional on offense where the gang from Happy Valley rank 118th on the ground, averaging just 108 yards rushing per game. One dimensional might be a bit generous, considering the passing game is better than the ground game, but certainly nothing to write home about. In last year's one point loss, the Terps out-gained PSU 466-363. They out-rushed the Nittany Lions, 241-48, but couldn't overcome five turnovers, including three INTs and two lost fumbles. In fact, Maryland had the ball at the Penn State 32-yard line in the fourth quarter with a chance to take the lead, but QB Perry Hills fumbled away those chances. Hills has completed 62% of his passes this season with 5 TD passes and just 1 INT. He's also rushed for a pair of scores. Maryland has three players who have gained between 330 and 150 yards rushing and five players (including Hills) have topped 100 yards on the season. Finally, Penn State heads into this one on a 1-7-1 ATS slide, while the Terps have covered six of their last eight Big-10 battles.
Bill Biles
Kent State vs. Buffalo
Play: Buffalo +2
In a game that features 2 of the worst offenses in the country, I like the spot the home team is in. Buffalo should have more success than they did against BC only getting 67 yards. Look for Buffalo to pull off the slight upset in this one.
Freddy Wills
UNLV vs. San Diego State
Play: San Diego St -15½
UNLV is clearly improved and has been favored in back to back weeks, but now going back on the road to play San Diego State with line value because they lost last week. I just can’t see UNLV staying close in this game after losing to UCLA and Central Michigan by 21 and 23 points in their only other road games.
UNLV has been able to run the ball this year to stay in these games and score points. They will want to do the same thing here on Saturday night considering they are starting a redshirt freshman in Dalton Sneed. Sneed will struggle against Rocky Long’s unique 3-3-5 defense. At some point they will have to turn to the passing game, because Rocky Long just knows how to stop the run. They have held all opponents under 4 yards per carry and only 1 opponent ran for more than 100 yards and that was Northern Illinois at home. The defense has held opponents to 29.51% conversion %. UNLV scored 14 on San Diego State last year but gave up 52 points. I see very much of the same this year in a 35-7 type final.
Big Al
Alabama vs. Arkansas
Pick: Arkansas
Nick Saban’s men are ranked #1 in the country, and come into this game with a 5-0 record. The Tide generally wins with defense, and has held four of its five opponents to 10 points or less. But I’m going to grab the double-digits with the home underdog Razorbacks, who come into this game off a 42-point win. And at Game 5 forward, home dogs of +11 or more points, off a win by 35 or more points, have covered 86.3% of the time since 1980 when matched up against an opponent off a win. Additionally, the Razorbacks are a solid 40-20 ATS after scoring 42 or more points in their previous contest. Meanwhile, undefeated teams like Alabama, with a 5-0 or better record, are awful when priced from -5.5 to -20 points against a revenge-minded foe off a win. Since 1980, our favored unbeaten teams have covered just 75 of 197 games. Take Arkansas + the points.
Larry Ness
Iowa St vs. Oklahoma St
Pick: Iowa St
Oklahoma State opened the 2016 season ranked No. 21 in the AP’s preseason poll but fell out quickly, after it lost 30-27 at home to Central Michigan on Sep 10. In fact, the 3-2 Cowboys (1-1 in Big 12 play) will host Iowa State (1-4, 0-2 Big 12) on Saturday, looking to win back-to-back games for the first time this season. There is apparently a strained relationship with prominent booster T. Boone Pickens (Oklahoma State's football stadium is named after him) and head coach Mike Gundy which came to light last week. Pickens told the Austin American-Statesman during an interview last week that Gundy "doesn't handle people relationships very well" and expressed disappointment the school hasn't come closer to challenging for a national championship under his watch. However, Oklahoma State seemed to put any distractions regarding that situation on the back burner last Saturday, as the Cowboys beat then-No. 25 Texas by the score of 49-31.
RB Justice Hill ran for over 100 yards for the second consecutive game vs Texas and can become the first freshman in school history to do so in three straight with another such performance. OSU’s running game is hardly prolific, averaging 133.6 YPG (104th) on 3.5 YPC but Hill now has 346 yards, while averaging 5.0 YPC. QB Mason Rudolph, who ranks seventh in the FBS with 1,688 yards passing, threw for over 300 yards in the first half for the second time in three games and has completed 62.6 percent through five games, with nine TD passes and just two INTs. However, the team’s defense has not been very good, allowing 447.8 YPG (98) and 28.2 PPG (70).
Iowa St has defensive woes as well, allowing 452.4 YPG (102) and 32.6 PPG (98). The Cyclones led the 11th-ranked Baylor Bears by 14 points going into the fourth quarter last weekend but managed only eight yards on six plays in the final period in a 45-42 loss (game-winning FG came at 0:00!). Its running game is below average (141.2 YPG on 3.7 YPC) and neither QB, Lanning (7 TDs and three INTs) nor Park (three TDs and no INTs), are in the class of Rudolph. However, Lanning did throw for 261 yards and two TDs (no INTs) against Baylor plus RB Warren ran for 130 yards and two TDs.
Iowa St appeared headed for an upset last year vs Oklahoma St, leading 31-21 after three quarters. However, just like last Saturday against Baylor, the Cyclones got shut out in the fourth quarter in a 35-31 loss. Iowa St will lose here as well but the big points are worth taking.
Alex Smart
Alabama vs. Arkansas
Play: Arkansas +14
The Razorbacks are a big tough team that can compete with Alabama physically. Recent meetings here in Fayetteville have been hard fought nasty affairs, that were decided by only four points, 24-20, and two years ago it a one point deficit edge with the Tide escaping 14-13. I am expecting another battle in the trenches today with the points proving to be golden. Arkansas is 11-3 ATS L/14 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.
Matt Fargo
Alabama vs. Arkansas
Play: Arkansas +14
Alabama has not missed a beat since winning its National Championship a year ago as it is off to a perfect 5-0 start. While the Tide have pretty much dominated, one look at the schedule will tell part of the reason why. They have faced a USC team that is way down this year and the only real true test was a game at Mississippi where they won by five points and were actually outgained by 35 total yards. While Arkansas has not defeated Alabama since 2006, it has played them tough the last two years, trailing by three points heading into the fourth quarter last year and losing by just one points two years ago in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks are 4-1 with the lone loss coming on the road at Texas A&M and matchup well with the Tide once again. Arkansas is a very physical team and one that can go toe-to-toe with Alabama. Their balance on offense is also a big asset as Razorbacks quarterback Austin Allen has already thrown for 1,232 yards and 12 touchdowns with just two interceptions while running back Rawleigh Williams III is second in the conference in rushing yards with 559. Since 1997, Arkansas has been a double-digit underdog at home only eight times and the Razorbacks are 6–2 ATS in those eight games. Here, we play against road favorites after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in four straight games going up against an opponent after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) since 1992.
Dwayne Bryant
Washington St at Stanford
Play: Washington St +7
Stanford's dreams of an undefeated season (and most likely a spot in the College Football Playoff) were destroyed in a 44-6 beating at the hands of Washington. Many bettors will expect the Cardinal to bounce back off that embarrassing loss. I do expect Stanford to win this game, but by a narrower margin than the current spread.
I know, the WSU defense leaves much to be desired. But they did hold Oregon to a season-low 416 yards of offense last weekend. And the Cardinal defense is banged up in the secondary and lacks the pass rushers necessary to limit a Cougars' offense averaging 44 points per game.
Stanford is 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a loss by 21 points or more, and 0-4 ATS in their last four after facing Washington. On the flip side, Cougars head coach Mike Leach is 8-1 ATS in his last nine as a dog, and 13-3 ATS as a dog over the last four seasons.
I expect Stanford to be at least somewhat flat off that blowout loss -- their first of the season. The matchup is one that should see the Cougars in it until the final possession.
Buster Sports
Notre Dame at NC State
Play: NC State -2
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come into this game after a sound beating of Syracuse 50-33 last week and now they have to play their second road game in a row. This is a situation that has paid big this year, and we believe that it will be a factor today in Raleigh. NC State has really liked to control time of possession with their 35th ranked rushing offense in the yards per carry category, at 5 yds/carry. This will be NC State's third game in a row at home and they look really good so far this year in Raleigh. Their passing offense has been very good as well, as it ranks 3rd in the FBS in passing completion percentage at 72.5%. Look for the NC State offense have a big day against Notre Dame's 111 th ranked total defense. Notre Dame will get their points as well as their offense has played very well all year putting up 2477 yards and a 199 points so far this year. We believe this game comes down to who has the better defense and that is NC State. Both offenses are very efficient but the N C State defense wins this game for them quite easily. Backing our selection is the fact that NC State are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games and Notre Dame are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Executive Sports
Vanderbilt at Kentucky
Play: Vanderbilt +3.5
Both teams come into this contest off a loss last week, and both are now 2-3 SU on the season. Vandy is 0-2 in conference while Kentucky is 1-2. Kentucky must now try to bounce back in their Homecoming game the week after losing big on the road to Alabama. Kentucky has played well at home so far this season going 2-1, and in their loss scored 35 points. The problem is they have given up 34 or more in 4 of their 5 games - over 40 in 3 of them.
*Play Against Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KENTUCKY) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season. (49-16, 75% over the last 5 seasons.) The situation's record this season is: (4-0). Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-7).
*Play Against Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KENTUCKY) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season. (48-16, 75% over the last 5 seasons.)
Stoops is 9-18 ATS against conference opponents as the coach of Ky.
VANDERBILT is 12-3 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
Oskeim Sports
Texas Tech at Kansas State
Play: Kansas State -7.5
Kansas State is one of the strongest technical plays of the weekend as the Wildcats are 43-17 ATS versus conference opponents, 36-16-1 ATS in the month of October and 21-8-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder is an incredible 34-12-1 ATS at home following a loss, including 15-2-1 ATS in the last eighteen games under these circumstances and 15-2 ATS versus teams off a SU and ATS win. Wow!
The Wildcats possess a very good defense that is allowing just 12.5 points and 240 total yards per game at 4.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yards per play against a mediocre defensive squad. The Wildcats' stop unit is also excellent in preventing big plays, limiting opposing offenses to just 19.2 yards per point (2.5 yards per point better than average).
Texas Tech hits the road for the first time in four weeks with an explosive attack that is 1.4 yards per play better than average (8.0 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yards per play). However, the Red Raiders will be without starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has been downgraded to "doubtful" due to a shoulder injury suffered against Kansas last week.
With Mahomes sidelined, Iowa transfer Nic Shimonek will be making his first career road start against a fearless Kansas State defense. The Wildcats have held their last three opponents to season-low yardage and are anxious to welcome an inexperienced backup quarterback to Manhattan. Let's also note that Texas Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last six October games and 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.
Chase Diamond
Army vs. Duke
Play: Army +6
Big game here for Army as they come in 3-1 and they are playing Duke who is 2-3. Virginia who is a bad team easily beat Duke at Duke and a'lot of that had to do with Duke's letdown off beating the Irish at Notre Dame. Army is off a bye week and a loss in OT to Buffalo Army is a much improved team and will be hungry to get a win Saturday. Last year Army fell to this Duke team 44-3 and there is no reason to think they will not be out to really avenge that loss and not get beat. Since 1979 rested .666 or better teams and are underdogs off an upset loss as a 9-point or more ATS favorite have covered at a money making 72%. Only 38% of the Public are backing Army here but I think they pull off the upset here but we will gladly take the points. *
River City Sharps
3 Units Kentucky -3
Honestly one of the biggest games of the Mark Stoops tenure at Kentucky will play out on Saturday afternoon as Vanderbilt comes to town. The main reason isn’t because it’s Vandy as much as Stoops needs to prove to the school, fans and boosters that UK has passed Vandy and are making progress in his fourth season. Derek Mason wants to do the same at Vandy and has the SEC’s leading RB in Ralph Webb to try and get that done. For us, this simply comes down to which team is more desperate right now and that definitely points to Kentucky. The Cats still have a really bad taste in their mouth from last year’s devastating loss in Nashville where they simply couldn’t do anything right. While UK still won’t be confused with a Top 10 team, there have been some encouraging signs for these Cats in recent weeks. Stoops took over a more active role on the defense following the New Mexico State game and it immediately paid dividends against South Carolina, a game UK won 17-10. The next week, they went on the road at Alabama and even though they ended up losing 34-6, they really played a solid first half vs. Bama and looked like a team that had a much better idea of what they wanted to do defensively. While UK’s offense isn’t always a thing of beauty, they have played much better with Stephen Johnson under center and Vandy’s offense is ranked dead last in the SEC, averaging just 303 total yards per game. The home team has won five of the last six in this matchup. We expect this game to be a low scoring affair and would think the Under 51 is also probably worth a look, but we have a good feeling UK understands the magnitude of the moment and will rise to the challenge here. We see a 24-14 type of win for UK.
Andrew Lange
Michigan at Rutgers
Play: 1st Half Over
With the exception of last week's 14-7 win over Wisconsin, Michigan has played the role of bully this season with wins by 39, 17, 37, and 60. There were 149 points score in the first half of those four games (37.3 avg) with a vast majority courtesy of the Wolverines. Head coach Jim Harbaugh came into the season with a reputation of playing it vanilla with a big lead. This year, he's been far more aggressive. We've even seen multiple instance in which backup quarterback John O'Korn entered the game late during a blowout and proceeded to take shots down field.
This week's opponent, Rutgers, offers another opportunity to “name the score.” The Scarlet Knights managed just seven points against Iowa and were shutout last week in Columbus, 58-0. Chris Ash has his work cut out for him and it's tough to envision his squad having much success in this contest. And while much of the focus is on the offense's struggles, the Scarlet Knights' defense has been equally dismal. Washington rang up 6.44 yards per play and 48 points and Ohio State posted 7.52 ypp. Even New Mexico was able to move the ball with relative ease: 5.78 ypp and 28 points.
This is a unique spot for Michigan being its first road game and a bye week on deck. I think it sets up well for a "get a big lead and go home" type contest. Look for Michigan to jump out early and with even a lone FG by Rutgers, the first half over looks to be in play.