Ian Cameron
Cincinnati at UConn
Play: Cincinnati -2.5
The UConn Huskies have not been able to step up in class yet this season and I think they will struggle to do so once again on Saturday when they face the Cincinnati Bearcats. Connecticut suffered a loss as favorites on this field against Syracuse which just gave up 56 points to Notre Dame and were blown out by Houston last week on the road. I don’t trust them enough here in a price range where UConn has to win the game or at least come very close in order to cash a ticket. Cincinnati is without their starting quarterback Hayden Moore once again for this game due to an ankle injury. Ross Trail got his first ever start as a freshman last week and had some good moments completing 20-of-30 passes for 216 passing yards along with a TD. He also had 3 interceptions but turnover miscues are to be expected from a rookie. Head coach Tommy Tuberville hasn’t named his starter yet but it will either be Trail or senior Gunner Kiel who has strangely fallen out of favor with the coaching staff. Either way, Cincinnati has dominated UConn over the years winning and covering each of the last five meetings with every victory by 8 points or more.
The Bearcats sport the better defensive numbers allowing 5.5 yards per play compared to the the 6.3 by UConn. The Huskies have clearly taken a step back this season: 540 total yards allowed against Houston and 469 against Syracuse. And even with some mild improvement from quarterback Bryant Shirreffs, the UConn lacks the explosiveness and playmakers to make up for its defensive decline. Cincinnati’s defense is also allowing fewer yards per rush and fewer passing yards per game than UConn. And in terms of these two teams facing a common opponent (Houston), the Bearcats were leading the Cougars 16-12 early in the fourth quarterback before an incredible meltdown occurred with Houston scoring 28 unanswered points. Cincinnati went toe-to-toe with Houston for most of that game while UConn was down early and never recovered en route to a 42-14 loss. The Huskies have been outgained by a combined 364 total yards in their last four games against Houston, Syracuse, Virginia and Navy going 1-3 SU, 0-3-1 ATS in the process. This is not a very good team and one likely to fail against a team that has dominated this recent history.
Nelly
Ohio - over Bowling Green
The Falcons have been one of the MAC's premier teams in recent years but this season appears to be featuring a dramatic decline, hitting low points with a 77-3 loss two weeks ago and then falling at home to lowly Eastern Michigan last week. Bowling Green won 62-24 in this matchup last season but it was a deceptive score and Ohio looks like a serious contender in the MAC East this season, sneaking out a narrow road win last week. The Bobcats are a limited offensive team but that unit could awaken with Bowling Green allowing 7.0 yards per play this season and greatly struggling against the run. Ohio hasn't won in this series since 2011 but the Bobcats don't look likely to let this opportunity slip away. Ohio is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games as a home favorite and while Bowling Green has owned this series the gap between these squads right now looks severe with Ohio often an undervalued squad due to a lower scoring average with a defense-first approach. With the line falling early in the week value is clearly with the host as recall that Bowling Green was a home underdog last week vs. Eastern Michigan and a nearly 18-point underdog at Memphis two weeks ago with Ohio comparing favorably vs. those teams.
Mike Anthony
Hawaii vs. San Jose State
Play: San Jose State -3
San Jose State's DBs are slightly underrated, Andre Chachere is hard hitting, and has great closing speed. Chachere is a tough player and a solid pas defender - and will make struggling QB Ikaika Woolsey struggle even more when going to his man. Hawaii has some problems defending the run game - and Woolsey has at many times missed his WRs, even when they have a step. Hawaii really has had their issues with moving the ball, especially in the air. Spartans are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record San Jose State wins giving the points
Matt Fargo
Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan
Play: Eastern Michigan +18
How much better has Eastern Michigan gotten? Their four wins this season is one more than the last two years combined so it has been a huge step up. Last season, the Eagles got double-digits at home only once and that was against Western Michigan. Here they are getting only a field goal less but are far superior this season. Eastern Michigan is allowing two touchdowns less on defense while averaging 10 points more on offense than last season. Toledo is coming off its first loss of the season as it fell to BYU by two points on a last season field goal. That was a brutal loss and one that will be hard to recover from so asking them to win this game by more than two touchdowns is asking a lot. Toledo got crushed on the ground and that is the strength of the Eastern Michigan offense this season as it is averaging 189 ypg on 4.5 ypc and those numbers are close to what the Rockets are allowing overall on the season. It can be easy to look past Eastern Michigan because it has been so bad for so long and do not be surprised to see that here with a home game against rival Bowling Green next week. The Eagles fall into a great situation based on the linesmakers making this number too high. We play on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points after two or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 35-9 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1992.
Jim Feist
Alabama vs. Arkansas
Play: Under 49
A pair of offenses that like to run the football, which chews up yards and the clock. Bama senior defensive end Jonathan Allen has been superb with four sacks on a star-studded defense that includes senior safety Eddie Jackson (nine career interceptions) and senior weak-side linebacker Reuben Foster (team-best 35 tackles). Alabama is 5-2 under the total in SEC games, plus the Under is 14-5 in the Crimson Tide's last 19 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Arkansas is on a 17-12-1 run under the total. The Arkansas defense last year went from from 30 ppg, to 19 under DC Robb Smith. Brett Bielema + Smith worked together at Iowa in the 90s. The team is on a 9-4 run under the total in SEC play. In 2015 Alabama won 27-14 in a game that sailed under. Arkansas had 176 yds passing, 44 yds rushing (1.8 ypc), while Bama had 134 yards rushing, just 2.9 ypc. Arkansas led 7-3 at half. The Tide held Alex Collins to 26 rushing yards and added three sacks and an interception.
Tony George
Oklahoma vs. Texas
Play: Texas +12
The rivalry continues. Texas won last year as a double digit dog and they are a double digit dog again! Won't some people learn that in games like this you can throw out the record books. I do not care what Texas did last week at Okie State, because frankly OU has played 2 good teams this year and lost to both of them in butt kicking fashion, yet they warrant a laying a big number in this game? What has Oklahoma done to deserve this honestly, and you can bet Charlie Strong and his team, whose back is against the wall, know they are being disrespected in their home state in what usually is the biggest game of the year for Texas, now that Texas AM is in the SEC. I can smell the cotton Candy in the Texas State Fair air as well as the stench in this Las Vegas line.
Oklahoma has weapons on offense but so does Texas and the Horns can flat out run it down your throat. Both teams will score and score often in this game (total at 73), and with Texas they are putting up 568 yards a game, can you say backdoor cover? The Hook em Horns have covered 3 straight in this heated series, and I see no reason why they do not here given the generous points.
Sean Higgs
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M -7
Taking TEXAS A&M to cruise to a double digit win this afternoon. Vols off a pair of emotionally and physically draining games. They fell behind early after their big win over Florida. They battled all the way to take the lead only to have it ripped from their grasp with just 10 seconds remaining. Then, as the football God's looked down, they were gifted a Hail-Mary victory as time expired!
Now they hit the road against the most balanced team they have faced on the year. These guys haven't fallen behind every game and come back to win. And they haven't faced cup-cakes either beating UCLA, Auburn, Arkansas and South Carolina.
Marc Lawrence
Miami Ohio+7½
Edges - Red Hawks: 5-1 ATS versus .333 or less MAC opponents. Zips: 10-19 ATS as conference favorites versus foes off back-to-back losses. With MAC road dogs playing with triple revenge against foes off a win 8-1 ATS, and Akron having allowed season-high yards in all four FBS games this season, we recommend a 1* play on Miami Ohio.
Jimmy Boyd
UCLA vs. Arizona St
Play: UCLA -10
UCLA is a couple plays away from being 5-0 and ranked inside the Top 10. They lost in overtime to Texas A&M and gave up a late score in a loss at home to Stanford in their two losses. I know they are a big road favorite here, but I don't think it's nearly enough given the circumstances.
Arizona State started out 4-0, but that was a result of an easy schedule. Their two best wins were against Texas Tech and California. Two teams that play zero defense. They trailed in the 2nd half of both of those games. Let’s also not forget this team had to rally from a 16-point deficit in the 2nd half to beat UTSA 32-28.
On top of all that, the Sun Devils lost starting quarterback Manny Wilkins in the loss last week to USC. He’s not expected to play against UCLA. Taking his place will be red-shirt freshman Brady White. While White was highly rated out of high school, chances are he struggles in his first start. Keep in mind Wilkens was putting up ridiculous numbers this season. He had already thrown for 1,233 yards with a 65% completion rate.
The problem here is they aren’t going to be able to ease White into things. Arizona State’s defense is atrocious. They come in ranked 121st in the country, giving up 504 yards/game. They are especially bad against the pass, giving up an average of 396 yards/game through the air. They are going to have no answer for UCLA’s Josh Rosen, who is arguably the best signal caller the Pac-12 has to offer.
If Arizona State gets behind, this could get ugly. UCLA’s secondary has been really good in the early goings. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 48.3% of their pass attempts against them. They are also better against the run than the numbers would suggest. The Bruins come in allowing 170 ypg and 4.5 yards/carry against the run. However, that’s come against teams who are averaging 227 ypg and 5.7 yards/carry. Arizona State is averaging 204 ypg on the ground, but that’s against teams who are allowing an average of 212 ypg.
This is also a big revenge spot for the Bruins, as they lost by 15-points on their home field to the Sun Devils last year. On top of that is a strong system backing a fade of the Sun Devils and their terrible defense. Home underdogs who are averaging 5.8 or more yards/play, after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are just 14-40 (26%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 74% system favoring a Bruins cover.
Jack Jones
Oklahoma/Texas Under 73.5
Both Texas and Oklahoma are coming off high-scoring affairs last week. Oklahoma and TCU combined for 98 points, while Texas and Oklahoma State combined for 80. I believe those results have this total inflated to the point where there is value on the UNDER.
I really love that Charlie Strong demoted defensive coordinator Vance Beford and will assume control of the play-calling duties. Strong’s background is defense, and it’s unacceptable how poor this Texas stop unit has played with the talent on hand. It’s only going to help the defense with Strong in control.
Rivalry games like this are always played closer to the vest. The Sooners and Longhorns are extremely familiar with one another, and the result is going to be more a defensive battle than the oddsmakers and general public are expecting.
That has certainly been the case in recent meetings in this series. In fact, six of the last seven meetings have seen 72 or fewer combined points. They combined for 56 points in 2013, 57 in 2014 and 41 in 2015. That’s an average of 51.3 combined points per game over the past three seasons, which is roughly 22 points less than this total of 73.5.
Last year, Texas beat Oklahoma 24-17 for the 41 combined points. The Longhorns only managed 368 total yards, but they won this game with defense in limiting the Sooners to just 278 total yards, which was their worst offensive output of the season. Strong and company clearly have a beat on Baker Mayfield and the Sooners.
Speaking of Mayfield, he missed practice Monday while he tries to recover form a leg injury he suffered in the first half against TCU. Mayfield returned to the game in the second half with a brace on his leg. He is expected to play Saturday, but without his mobility, he’s only a shell of his former self.
Texas is 6-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams who average 8.5 or more passing yards per attempt over the past three seasons. Strong is 37-19 to the UNDER when playing on Saturday in all games he has coached.
Brandon Shively
Notre Dame vs. NC State
Play: Under 65
Much has been talked about Notre Dame’s bad defensive play and I’m not going to say they are a good defensive team by any means, but they have better talent than what their numbers suggest. Last week after Brian Kelly fired his DC, the Irish held Syracuse to 3-for-15 on 3rd downs. While Syracuse scored 33 points, 27 of those were in the first half. They only scored 6 points in the 2nd half. I expect continued improvement from Notre Dame here on the defensive side of the ball. N.C. State has yet to play a note-worthy team and I think it’s safe to say that Notre Dame has much better defensive talent than ECU, Wake Forest, Old Dominion and William & Mary.
In normal conditions, this total is about right, but the field conditions are expected to be wet and windy from Hurricane Matthew. The Rain is going to start Friday and carry through all day Saturday. At kickoff, winds are expected to be around 20 MPH with possible stronger gust. Both teams rely more on the pass than the run and this wind should alter their game plan a bit and we should see more of a grind it our running game with more time off the clock.
NC State’s punter is averaging 49.7 yards a punt and has had only 1 punt returned this year (6 yards). NC State has a solid run defense and can keep Notre Dame contained on the ground.
NC State plays at a slower pace, ranked 97th in adjusted pace. Notre Dame is middle of the pack ranked 69th in adjusted pace. I don’t think either team will be in a hurry to run at a fast pace here. There should be more importance of ball security and making sure the correct play is called. A loss today will hurt Notre Dame as coach Kelly is under the gun and I strongly feel like he puts together a gameplan that fits his players. A shootout is not the answer. Look for a game played in the upper 20’s with a final score in the 27-24 range.
Dave Price
Michigan State -5.5
The Michigan State Spartans are going to be hungry to save their season this week. After a huge road win at Notre Dame, they have dropped back-to-back games against Wisconsin and Indiana. They've made uncharacteristic mistakes in both losses. Look for Mark Dantonio to rally the troops this week and put away BYU at home. The Spartans catch BYU at the right time here. The Cougars are simply running on fumes right now after playing Arizona, Utah, UCLA, WVU and Toledo all in tight games in the first 5 weeks. Last week's 55-53 home win over Toledo was especially exhausting. Don't expect them to recover in time to take on this motivated Michigan State outfit. The Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.
Rocketman
Bowling Green +12
The Bowling Green Falcons travel to Ohio to take on the Bobcats on Saturday afternoon. Bowling Green is 1-4 SU overall this year while Ohio comes in with a 3-2 SU overall record on the season. Ohio is allowing 38.5 points per game at home this year. Bowling Green is 14-3 ATS overall last 17 meetings in this series including 7-1 ATS last 8 meetings in Ohio. Bowling Green has won 4 straight over the Bobcats. Bowling Green is 13-3 ATS last 16 games as an underdog of 10 to 13 1/2 points after playing at home. Bowling Green is 18-3-1 ATS last 22 games overall when the line is 10 to 13 1/2 after playing a home game. We'll recommend a small play on Bowling Green today!
Matt Josephs
Florida International+6
FIU is coming off their first win of the season with their new interim head coach. Now they have a good chance for a second one as they play at UTEP. The Miners are pretty pathetic offensively with just 333.6 yards per game. FIU isn't much better although they probably have a more talented unit. UTEP's QB situation is up in the air, but does it really matter for a team that has scored just 35 points over their last four games. The key will be the team who can stop the run better. FIU has covered in 10 of their last 17 conference games. They have also covered in seven of their last 12 against a team with a losing record. I may be wrong here, but I like the road team getting points.
Matt Mohr
California vs. Oregon St
Play: California -13½
If Cal is going to make a run at the Pac 12 title this is the place to start as the Beavers have not looked good in their last 2 games giving up an average of 42.5 points. I expect Cal to put up at least 42 and it would be surprise me if they hang 55 on the Beavers. I project this one being a track meet as neither team has a sound defense however the edge goes to Cal due to playing better competition. On the offensive side Cal has an advantage in several key categories; points per game(42), total offense(548), passing(428).........you get the point. The Golden Bears are going to put up points and their defense will make some key stop to ice this game mid-way through the 3rd.