Andy Iskoe
Notre Dame +2.5
With no conference title to aim for and their chances for a spot in the 4 team playoff extinguished the motivation for Notre Dame over the balance of the season can be questioned. There will be highs and lows and this game against North Carolina State should be a high with the momentum gained last week from the Irish's neutral site win over Syracues. While Notre Dame still carries a strong brand, NC State has conference games on deck the next two weeks at Clemson and Louisville. Notre Dame has a significant talent edge over the Wolfpack and if the Irish come to play this could be a one sided victory by 17 points or more. Notre Dame is still smarting from their home loss to Duke a couple of weeks ago and after defeating Syracuse to even their record at 1-1 vs ACC teams this third straight game against an ACC team should have their focus. Notre Dame does have a revenge game next week against Stanford but the look ahead factor is more relevant when asking a team to win by a margin. Here, the Irish are the underdog and that can be used as motivation for a strong effort here in their tune up for the Cardinal.
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the rolling Broncos of Western Michigan to end 7 years of frustration against the Huskies of Northern Illinois.
NIU did notch their first win of the season, as they were able to make it 8 wins in a row over Ball State. Winning in Kalamazoo tonight will be another story though, as P.J. Fleck's team has met every challenge to date, as they bring in a 5-0 mark both straight up and against the spread into this revenge game.
As I said at the top, the Huskies have been the straight up series winner the last 7 times these MAC rivals have met, but with Northern Illinois just 1-4 both straight up and against the spread this season, I don't see the streak reaching 8 in a row.
It's clear the Broncos have the better team this time around, and while the impost is lofty, I say lay it as Western gets their ya-ya's out after getting put at heel for 7 straight seasons.
Broncos to continue their quest towards perfection with the win and cover.
5* WESTERN MICHIGAN
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie will be the Seminoles and the Hurricanes to get the scoring ramped up in their annual Sunshine State showdown from Sun Life Stadium.
The last 5 series meetings have all held Under the total, but I don't see that trend continuing this year, as Florida State has been averaging over 41 points per game, while allowing over 35 points per game this season.
The Hurricanes are averaging a whopping 47 points per game for their first 4 contests, and their last pair of games and 3 of their 4 on the year have landed Over the total.
Florida State has played 5 of their last 7 lined games dating back to last season Over the total, and each week it seems they are content to get into "shoot 'em up" affairs.
After 5 years of holding Under, tonight's meeting heads Over the total in a wild one.
3* FLORIDA STATE-MIAMI FLORIDA OVER
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Saturday comes on underdog Washington State as they head to Palo Alto to play a Stanford team that was run over last Friday night by the buzzsaw that is the Washington Huskies.
Last year Wazzou came within 2 points of stopping a 7 game series losing streak, as they covered as the home +10 point underdog against the Cardinal.
So, now with the series skid at 8 straight, look for the Cougars to use last week's 51-33 home upset win over Oregon as a springboard to give Stanford another competitive contest.
Washington State has gone 13-3 against the spread as the road dog since 2013, and are 16-8 overall in the underdog role.
Stanford's offense has not been as consistent as in year's past, so look for another close one on The Farm under the Saturday night lights.
Play State plus the points.
2* WASHINGTON STATE
Joseph D'Amico
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M
Play: Tennessee +7
Well, October is here, and you know what that means? An Aggies meltdown. Texas A&M is 8-20-1 ATS their L29 games played in the month of October. They certainly haven't had to face a dual-threat QB like Joshua Dobbs (1035 YP 13 TD's 6 INT's in the air and 267 YR and 5 TD's on the ground). The Tennessee backfield also boasts RB's, Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara (572 YR and 2 TD's combined). The Vols have overturned halftime deficits of 10, 14, and 21 points on their way to a 5-0 record. It will be their passing game that will exploit the 87th ranked pass "D" of the Aggies. Tennessee is 6-1 ATS their L7 games played vs. teams with a winning record and 6-2 ATS their L8 Conference games. Texas A&M is 2-5 ATS their L7 vs. teams with a winning record and 8-18 ATS their L26 Conference games.
Bob Harvey
Washington St vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford -6½
Coming off the worst defeat in coach David Shaw’s six-year tenure, Stanford eyes a bounce-back effort as the Cardinal host Washington State. Stanford was dominated on both sides of the ball and allowed eight sacks in last Saturday’s 44-6 loss at Washington, while the Cougars rushed for six touchdowns in a 51-33 win over Oregon.
Stanford has scored two offensive touchdowns in the past two games and could be hard-pressed to keep pace with the Cougars, who lead the Pac-12 in total offense (548.8 yards per game) and rank second in scoring offense (44.2 points). Still we like Stanford and running back Christian McCaffrey recording a season-low 12 carries for 49 yards last week.
Kyle Hunter
Texas St vs. Georgia St
Play: Under 62
Georgia State has topped 300 yards only once so far this year. The Panthers badly miss Nick Arbuckle. Arbuckle was a tremendous quarterback for them, and with him, Georgia State averaged 433 yards per game last year. Georgia State is playing a weak defense here, so they will certainly get more yardage than they have been getting, but I believe this posted total is too high.
Texas State will play quickly, but the Texas State offense isn't very efficient. Texas State is converting on only 33.33% of third down conversion attempts. Texas State is averaging 2.06 yards per game on the ground. The Georgia State secondary is pretty good, but their run defense is suspect. I don't see Texas State being able to capitalize on that weakness.
Georgia State State averages just 2.56 yards per carry. Georgia State likes to slow the tempo down, and with two inefficient offenses, despite the fact that these defenses are subpar, I see a total of 62 being a little too high. Take the under.
Chip Chirimbes
Michigan vs. Rutgers
Play: Rutgers +30
After five straight home wins #4 Michigan takes to the road for the first time traveling east to play a Big Ten bottom feeder in Rutgers. The Scarlet Knight were malled at Ohio State 58-0 last week and have struggled against quality clubs scoring just 10 total points against Washington, Ohio State and Iowa. With this the Wolverines first road encounter I expect some things to not go as planned.
MMA OddsBreaker
Perry vs. Roberts
Pick: Perry
Both Mike Perry and Danny Roberts hit incredibly hard and are suspeptable to being hit. While both fighters have excellent offense, it's the composure under fire that has me leaning Perry. Mike Perry had a tough UFC debut against former headliner Hyun Gyu Lim and he passed that test with flying colors, dropping the bigger Lim three times in the first round before scoring a TKO finish. Roberts hasn't had the same success on the feet despite his accolades, even getting dropped by Dominique Steele in his last bout. I know Roberts is fighting in front of a home crowd, but he could be in big trouble if Perry lands anything significant here and I feel there's a very real chance that Perry does.
David Banks
Florida St at Miami
Pick: Over 64.5
It’s hard to believe that the Seminoles are 0-2 in ACC play. They could fall to 0-3 with a loss to rejuvenated Miami on Saturday. The Hurricanes are playing well under new head coach and former Miami QB Mark Richt. The ‘Canes are 4-0 and ranked 10th in the nation, but have yet to play anyone of significance. That all changes over the next three weeks as Miami faces three ranked ACC opponents. It starts Saturday with Florida State.
Miami is playing extremely well on both sides of the ball. They are fourth in the nation in scoring, averaging 47 points a game, and they are ranked second in scoring defense (11.0 ppg). Quarterback Brad Kaaya (935 yds., 8 TDs) leads a very balanced offense that averages over 470 yards per game. He will guide the Hurricanes against a very suspect FSU defense.
The Seminoles were blown out by Lamar Jackson and Louisville and then lost last week on a dramatic last-second 54-yard field goal in a loss to North Carolina. Head coach Jimbo Fisher’s defense gave up 63 points to Louisville and 37 to the Tar Heels. In a season-opening win over Ole Miss, the Seminoles allowed 34 points to the Rebels. It is very uncharacteristic of FSU, especially since there was talk that this could be the best defensive unit ever assembled in Tallahassee.
A big part of the problem is the lack of free safety and do-it-all Derwin James who has missed a significant amount of time while injured. If he returns this season, it will not be until November. James is a difference maker and he, as well as a few other key defenders, has been banged up the entire season. Florida State’s defense will have to rise to the occasion to get the Seminoles back on the winning track.
Harry Bondi
EASTERN MICHIGAN +19 over Toledo
Toledo has owned this series, but this is a different Eastern Michigan team, for sure. After winning a combined seven games in the last four seasons, the Eagles are 4-1 both SU and ATS this season and are being undervalued here today. We like the fact that they are rushing for almost 200 yards a game, which will allow them to slow the game down and keep it within reach against a Toledo team that will be in major letdown mode after last week’s ball-breaking loss at BYU. Take the generous points.
Dr Bob
Oklahoma (-10) 46 Texas 27
Oklahoma has not started the season as well as they had hoped but there is no shame in losing to Houston and Ohio State. The Sooners picked themselves up after their second loss and beat a good Horned Frogs team last week and they’ll be ready for Texas, who appears to be overrated after starting the season a bit underrated.
The Longhorns’ overtime win over Notre Dame isn’t particularly impressive given how much the Irish have struggled, and reality has set in with consecutive losses at Cal and at Oklahoma State in which Texas allowed an average of 49.5 points. The Longhorns’ defense, which has allowed an average of 8.9 yards per pass play to Notre Dame, Cal and Oklahoma State is going to get torched by an even better Oklahoma aerial attack that has averaged 8.0 yards per pass play (with Baker Mayfield in the game) against teams that would allow just 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback. The Texas run defense, which is only 0.2 yards per rushing play better than average, is also likely to get abused by an elite Oklahoma ground attack that has averaged 6.4 yprp this season despite facing teams that would allow just 4.7 yprp to an average team. The Sooners have averaged 39.5 points per game against teams that are collectively 0.6 yppl better than the Texas defense and my math model projects 46 points for OU in this game.
Oklahoma’s defense has allowed an average of 45.5 points in their last two games to Ohio State and TCU but the Buckeyes and Horned Frogs both possess elite offenses that rate at 1.3 yards per play and 1.2 yppl better than average. The Texas offense has been only 0.2 yppl better than average, as their 6.3 yppl have come against 4 bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack. Oklahoma’s defense hasn’t looked that good on the scoreboard (35.3 points per game allowed) but the Sooners have been 0.3 yppl better than average (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl) after taking out the 201 yards on 30 plays that UL Monroe racked up against the backups.
Texas quarterback Shane Buechele should have decent success throwing the ball (6.6 yppp projected) but Oklahoma’s run defense (4.4 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yprp) is much better than the Texas rushing attack (5.5 yprp against teams that would allow 5.2 yprp) that will be without #2 rusher Chris Warren III for the foreseeable future – although more carries for D’Onta Foreman is not a bad thing. The model projects 435 yards at just 5.3 yppl and 27 points for Texas.
Both of these teams are 2-2 but Oklahoma is much better than their record while Texas is not. I expect the Sooners to get their revenge for last year’s upset loss and I’ll take Oklahoma in a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less and for 1-Star up to -13.5 points.
The Prez
Vanderbilt at Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -3
The ground game for both of these SEC squads has been their bread and butter this season and both schools square off on Saturday afternoon at Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, Kentucky for a big conference tilt. The Wildcats and running back Boom Williams host the Commodores and RB Ralph Webb. Vanderbilt has been successful in their conference openers the last trio of seasons, especially on the road. Vandy is 3-0 against the spread in conference road openers the last three seasons and they aim to push that streak to four today in Lexington.
Commodores
Quarterback Kyle Shurmur was injured in the fourth quarter versus Florida last week but is expected to be available and start today in Kentucky. Shurmur is coming off a porous performance, a 9-of-25 showing through the air for a total of 82 yards. The Vandy signal-caller has throw for 150 passing yards or more just once in Vanderbilt's first five games. Both teams depend heavily on their running game but the defense of the Commodores is the different in this Saturday afternoon affair. Linebacker Zach Cunningham has been the headliner for this Commodores defense but he can't do it alone. Vandy is struggling to score and preventing their opposition from doing so.
Wildcats
Both the 'Cats and the Commodores are a combined 1-4 in SEC play so far this season. Today that win total will be doubled as these two teams get together for their annual divisional matchup. Quarterback Drew Barker remains due to a back injury while Stephen Johnson readies for his fourth consecutive start. Kentucky and their fan faithful believed that after Barker's 310-yard, three-touchdown performance in mid-September against New Mexico State that he would be able to fil the shoes of the injured Barker but he has thrown for just 224 yards with zero touchdown passes in the last two games.
In the battle between Kentucky, who ranks 11th in the conference in total yards (1,762), has an opportunity to improve their numbers against a suspect Vanderbilt defense and an offense that ranks 13 in league offensive efficiency, this in a 14 team conference.
Marco D'Angelo
Michigan St -5.5
Off of last weeks grueling 55-53 win over Toledo one has to question how much BYU can have left in the tank. This is BYU's 6th game in 6 weeks with 4 of them being on the road. All 5 games have been decided by 3 points or less. Michigan St has the better athletes and should wear down this BYU team. Michigan St laid an egg against Indiana last week and I think they were flat from suffering their first loss the week before. Today you get a totally focused Spartan team against a BYU defense that gave up 35 2 weeks ago to WVU and 53 to Toledo last week. The murderous schedule is catching up to BYU. My numbers have Michigan St winning by 10 or more.
Bob Balfe
Texas A&M -7
Is today the day? How many chances does this Tennessee team have before lady luck runs out? Texas A&M has dealt with big injuries the last few weeks and still have won by double digits. This Defense Line is nasty and will get to the QB. The Vols will be without top running back Jalen Hurd today which puts more pressure on Dobbs. Look for the Aggies to get out of the gates early and for this crowd to ensure the Vols don’t get back into the game with the noise levels.
Cubs -1.5 +115
This is too big of a money line to play and after 5 one run games in a row you have to figure by the law of averages this will not be another 1 run game. Samardzija is having a great year, but has struggled at times on the road. This Cubs team needs to hold serve and put the pressure on San Francisco once they hit the road after this game is over. Last night the Giants blew a golden shot to win game one with base running errors. With Bumgarner coming up the Cubs need to win this game and win it big.