SPORTS WAGERS
ARKANSAS +14 over Alabama
While we generally are not in favor of stepping in on these high profile games, the price in this one is too good to pass up on. We get the Tide hype. They are as good as advertised and could very well run the table this year. We also give Nick Saban credit for having no fear in scheduling early games against tougher competition when he could easily pick four cupcakes. However, the Tide are not 14 points better than Arkansas in Fayetteville.
The Razorbacks are ranked #16 in the country and it is so rare to see a team ranked this high getting two converted TD’s at home. In fact, since Saban arrived in Alabama, the Tide have played against 17 ranked teams on the road and this is the biggest price that they have been in any of them. The previous biggest price was -10. Furthermore, when the lines came out in August for several big games throughout the entire season, Alabama was just an 8½-point choice. If you decide to bet on Alabama today, you would be paying a huge premium to do so. From each teams’ first game up until now, we don’t see the huge regression or improvement that the market sees. It is also worth noting that Nick Saban has not lost to Arkansas in nine tries since arriving in Alabama, but the Hogs have led or been within a field goal in the fourth quarter in four of them, including the most recent two. We’re always on the lookout for inflated points and these points here might be the most inflated on the board today.
PENN STATE +105 over Maryland
The Penn State-Maryland game is considered a rivalry game and the most memorable exchange of pleasantries was Maryland’s refusal to shake hands with Penn State at a coin toss in the ceremonious inauguration back in November of 2014. The two teams also engaged in a shoving match at mid-field prior to kickoff that day. Maryland Head Coach D.J Durkin and Penn State Head Coach James Franklin know each other well from their days spent at two SEC East programs, Florida and Vanderbilt. James Franklin led Vanderbilt to a point of relevance in a very competitive and fierce division with constituents consisting of Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina when they were prominent and Missouri, who also flexed their muscles upon entry into the SEC. It was Franklin’s ability to produce winning seasons that earned him the job at Penn State. By contrast, Durkin was captaining Florida’s defense under Will Muschamp and filled in when Muschamp was sacked due to leading Florida to a point where they were mocked and considered a shadow of their former selves. The duo would follow each other to the Big 10, where Franklin would assume control of Penn State, a program in shambles and Durkin would be the defense coordinator at Michigan.
The 2015 performance of Michigan’s defense earned Durkin the job at Maryland. But nevertheless, how much of that was Durkin’s tutelage as much as prolific recruiting by Brady Hoke? Franklin is the better coach and Maryland is not a good enough team to be spotting points at a place like Happy Valley.
Maryland’s 4-0 record has them falsely favored here but the list of its victims is not too impressive. Aside from defeating a Purdue team that has been horrible for years, the Terps also defeated UCF, a team that did not win a game last year in 2015, FIU who is known as a perennial cupcake and Howard, a FCS tune-up opponent. Penn State has already taken on Minnesota, Michigan, Pitt and Temple. The games against Pitt and Michigan were on the road. All four of these teams are quality opponents and we would even venture to say that Kent State as an opening opponent for the Lions is more frightening than any of the teams listed on Maryland’s list of assailed.
You may read or hear about Maryland’s strong offensive and defensive numbers this year but it’s all fool’s gold because the numbers are extremely skewed. 52 points against Howard, 41 against FIU, and 50 against Purdue has caused a great overreaction here. Penn State gets some healthy bodies back and take they take a big step down in class from the likes of the Wolverines (who they faced minus 14 starters), Minnesota and Pitt. The litmus test will reveal Penn State at 3-2 is better than Maryland at 4-0. Keep the points. Penn State outright is the call.
N.C. STATE -3 over Notre Dame
Notre Dame has a way of enchanting bettors. The gold helmets combined with the storied fight song is a novelty even the casual fan of college football is well acquainted with. When you take this same Notre Dame team with the notoriety that surrounds them and put them on the road against a team like N.C. State, the play seems like an easy one. When you throw in points, the Irish have even more appeal. However, we are not of that opinion by any stretch.
First off, the Wolf Pack is a team that can give any opponent fits within the confines of Carter-Finley Stadium. The den for the Wolf Pack is known as one of the most difficult havens in all of college football and this does not bode well for the Irish, who already own a road loss this year at Texas in overtime. Texas has proven to be no better of a football team than N.C. State. Furthermore, the Irish were also defeated on their hallowed ground by Michigan State and fellow ACC cohort, Duke. The Irish defense does not look as stout as it has historically. In fact, Notre Dame’s defense looks rather poor to be blunt. The Irish currently sport the 106th ranked defense in all the land in terms of total yards per game. They rank 108th against the pass and allow an accommodating 186 yards per game on the ground. This is terrible news for the Irish, who rely strictly on their offense to win games and are going up against a team that is one of the most balanced offensive units in the country, complemented by a fierce and vicious defense. To make matters worse, Notre Dame will have to find a way to stop Wolf Pack running back Matt Dayes. For those of you who don’t know who Matt is, he is a battering ram that compiled 12 rushing touchdowns for the Pack in 2015 and he is not showing any signs of slowing down anytime soon.
This market is putting too much weight on State’s loss to ECU. We’re not, as N.C. State and ECU is an age-old rivalry and one of the most competitive and evenly matched rivalries in recent history. The fact of the matter remains, Notre Dame has had no answer for any offense that they have come across all season long and now they have to pass a very difficult test in a tremendously hostile environment. We are pushing the panic button on Notre Dame. We figured the Irish as a contender all offseason but now it's clear that they don't belong. The offense is still good but the defense has more problems than one bad day on three different occasions. Issues of coaching, scheme, personnel, intangibles ... the works… has the Irish high on our fade list and that attack on them begins here.