Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, September 10th, 2016

Jesse Schule

BYU vs. Utah
Pick: BYU

The Cougars lost 35-28 to Utah in last year's Las Vegas Bowl. The Utes opened up a 35-0 first quarter lead, only to allow BYU to score 28 unanswered points. The difference in that game was quarterback play, with Tanner Mangum turning the ball over with three interceptions. Mangum went into last season as the backup, but quickly became the starter when Taysom Hill went down with a season ending injury in Week 1.

Hill is back, and he looked sharp in a Week 1 win on the road in Arizona. He was quite efficient, completing 72 percent of his passes, throwing for 202 yards and a TD with no picks. Two seasons ago the Cougars jumped out to an impressive 4-0 start, and Hill emerged as a serious contender for the Heisman. He's battled injuries ever since, but as long as he's healthy this team should be competitive.

The Utes pitched a shutout in a 24-0 win over Southern Utah, and junior quarterback Troy Williams had a good game. They failed to impress on the ground though, gaining 138 yards on 38 carries.

Both teams look great on defense, and as we've seen in previous editions of the "Holy War", we should see a close low scoring game.

DAVE COKIN

NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT SOUTH FLORIDA
PLAY: SOUTH FLORIDA -14

Northern Illinois is a very pesky MAC entry that has frequently thrown scares into major conference programs, and the Huskies have pulled their share of upsets over the years. So it’s not like this is one of those teams it’s a cinch to pull the trigger against, as it’s a solid program that is often overlooked. But the scheduling dynamics in play for this game along with my assessments of the teams involved has me backing the favorite.

First, a few words on the chalk piece here. South Florida has been upwardly mobile ever since Willie Taggart arrived on the scene. Taggart took over a bad program that was off a woeful 2-10 2012 campaign. The cupboard was close to bare when he arrived, and the Bulls suffered through a 3-9 result in Taggart’s first season. But they improved to 4-8 and showed some fight in 2013, and turned the corner last year. South Florida lost its bowl game to Western Kentucky, but that took little away from an 8-4 regular season.

I think the 2016 South Florida entry is a serious contender in the AAC. Taggart has done a great job recruiting and aside from what could be some shaky special teams, I don’t see many weaknesses on this squad. The tough deal for USF is having to play a couple of tough league opponents on the road. But if this team stays healthy, I like their chances of at least matching last year’s win total and perhaps even getting to nine or ten wins.

I’ve learned the hard way to stop making long range predictions against Northern Illinois, and with good reason. The Huskies have now been to six straight MAC title games, and I’m not betting against them keeping that impressive streak alive this year. Wideout Kenny Golladay is the big star on this team, but he’s sure not the only talented guy on the roster, and once league plays begins in early October, NIU should be ready to contend again.

However, right at the moment, I’m only concerned with this week’s game and I don’t like this spot even a little bit for Northern Illinois. The Huskies are off an exceedingly draining triple overtime loss in the high altitude at Wyoming, Now they have to travel to hot and humid Tampa for a battle with a team that figures to be much tougher than the Cowboys.

The oddsmakers aren’t making it easy as this is a big number and Northern Illinois rarely gets blown out. But I didn’t think the Huskies looked especially good last Saturday and USF wasn’t even a little bit shy about drilling opponents last year when they had the opportunity. I’ll note that star running back Marlon Mack is on the injury list as questionable with a concussion, but the Bulls have good depth at that position, so it’s not a huge concern for me. I like this spot for what I believe to be the superior home team, and I laid the -14 with South Florida.

Marc Lawrence

Arkansas +7½

Edges - Razorbacks: 5-1 ATS as non-conference road dogs of 14 or less points; and 4-1 ATS last five games versus Big 12 opposition. Horned Frogs: 2-7-1 ATS last ten games versus SEC foes; and 2-6 ATS as non-conference home chalk of less than 10 points. With head Hog Brett Bielema 15-7-1 ATS as a dog off a win in his career, we recommend a 1* play on Arkansas.

Mike Rose

Cincinnati at Purdue
Play: Purdue +6.5

Cincinnati gave up a hefty 177 net rushing yards to the powerhouse ground attack of Tennessee Martin last week. Though they gave up just 3.6 yards per carry, the improvement from the near 192 yards per game allowed last season was minimal – and it came against an FCS opponent.

That will no doubt have Purdue dynamic running back Markell Jones licking his chops after he led the Boilermakers on the ground last week with 145 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. He averaged better than 6.0 yards per carry and also added four receptions for another 24 yards.

Purdue has done absolutely nothing under the Darrell Hazell regime. In fact, most diehard Boiler fans would tell you they want him out as head coach. That said, this is a winnable game for the home team who, if they win this game, has an excellent shot at opening up the season 3-0 before opening up B1G play at Maryland.

I like the way this game sets up for the home team. Cincinnati is a program in transition as Tuberville breaks in coordinators on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. It’s going to take time before both units settle in, and it showed last week with sloppy overall play. PU returns 16 starters from last year’s team with veterans and experience returning at most key spots. Look for that edge to lead them to the outright win that has the folks in West Lafayette partying until the wee hours of the morning.

Rob Veno

Penn State at Pittsburgh
Play: Penn State +6

It’s always tough to be definitive on all teams after Week 1's results are in because there are so many variables. In this contest it’s pretty easy to take away a common theme of inconsistent offense and above average defense for each of these teams after they unimpressively disposed of Kent State by 20 and Villanova by 21. Neither of those final scores resulted in pointspread covers and neither lived up to the offseason hype surrounding these teams. There did however seem to be a difference between their respective offensive game plans and while Penn State’s was aggressive, it seemed as if Pittsburgh’s was more of the vanilla variety. Question is, if Pittsburgh was vanilla, did they play call it that way by design to hide some offensive elements from Penn State, or is the passing game not equipped to be a legitimate threat and balance the running of running back James Conner?

For Penn State, it was obvious that first-year offensive coordinator Joe Moorehead wants to throw the ball more and be more explosive. While new starting quarterback Trace McSorely has the tools to fit James Franklin’s system, it seemed evident that he’s really going to have to develop as a deep thrower to make Moorehead’s system consistently productive. Aside from a series of on target out patterns to top receiver Chris Godwin, Mc Sorely was a bust (16-of-31, 209 yards) in the season opener and under threw a handful of deep routes. The offensive play calling tilted more toward the run (55% pass, 45% runs) due in large part because of a sizable second half margin.

Each team faced a solid lower level defensive team in their opener but now these offenses will be confronted with a sizeable step up in class. After watching Villanova stack the line of scrimmage last week and dare Pitt quarterback Nate Peterman to throw, you can be sure Penn State will employ the same tactics. Unless Pitt was hiding some of their aerial playbook for this game, the Nittany Lions defense should be able to sell out and have a good day. Expect Pittsburgh to focus on stopping the PSU ground game as well and test McSorley’s ability to force them out of that philosophy. Bettors are really looking at two mirror images who will play at a high intensity level as this heated rivalry is revived after a 16-year hiatus. I'll side with Penn State because of its new expansive playbook which seems better suited to keep the Pitt defense honest in a game where +6 seems even larger.

Brad Diamond

California vs. San Diego St
Play: California +7½

PAC-12 entrant Cal Bears catching some diamond dust down the road, and looking pretty good despite stat sheet issues week #1 versus Hawaii. San Diego State (-30-1/2) played with New Hampshire (8 first downs) before covering. Hats off to head coach Rocky Long for waltzing Saturday, and more cheers to the MWC unit for not further pursuing Big East (2013). We note, if QB Goff's replacement continues to improve the Bears could win the whole game. Also, this is somewhat of a "must win" for the Golden Bears with Texas at home next on the schedule. Surely, Sonny Dykes of California will have his core (10 returning starters) prepping the squad, noting they face an avenging foe.

Sleepyj

UTEP / Texas Over 58.5

I'm shocked this number is so low....I made my number for this game 66.5.....So i'm feeling good about going over...Numbers are out of wack for a few weeks and we can take advantage here of a bad line IMO....We saw Texas last week go a lightning speed Vs. Notre Dame...No reason to mess up the mojo now off a big win...My only concern is will the Longhorns come out flat...My gut feeling says no because this is a home statement game...A statement game to put a hurt on the minors and once again put the Big 12 on notice...Utep defense is very good at all and they exchanged scores last week with New Mexico St...Utep allowed 22 points at home...How many will they give up to a solid Texas team that clearly has the foot on the gas pedal right now is the question...My guy feeling is 45+...So we only need two TD's from Utep the way I see it...Texas still has a leaky defense and Notre dame proved that last week..Utep has nothing to lose and I'm sure they have been geared up for this game since the season kicked off...Utep put up 38 points last week and really hit in every area....519 total yard for the Miners with 229 passing and 289 rushing...A good mix and a good way to iron out the wrinkles before this big matchup...I think we see a track meet here and if Texas plays at the pace that was set last week...Look out !!...This will be a runaway winner for us with these two defenses trying to defend one another...Over it is..This number looks way way off to me...I won't be surprised to see this one in land in the 52-20 area.

Ian Cameron

Tulsa at Ohio State
Play: Tulsa +28.5

I provided a winning wager with Tulsa as a free play recommendation last week and I’m going to back to the well on Saturday as it heads to Ohio State. This is obviously not the greatest of spots for the Buckeyes after dominating a rebuilding Bowling Green squad 77-10 and a trip to Norman to face Oklahoma on deck. Tulsa meanwhile looked much improved as they took apart San Jose State 45-10. The Golden Hurricane closed -3.5 but ended up outgaining the Spartans by 225 yards en route to the easy win and cover. Ohio State’s offense looked spectacular last week as it piled up a mind boggling 776 yards. Bowling Green was once again outmanned defensively but unlike last season, struggled to move the football with a first-year quarterback and head coach. Tulsa is on much better footing. Third-year starting quarterback Dane Evans has a host of skill position talent surrounding him and a proven track record of being able to put points on the board. In games against Oklahoma, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, Navy, and Virginia Tech last season, the Golden Hurricane averaged 43 ppg. That number likely won’t be reached in this matchup but Tulsa has the weapons and experience to move the ball against a talented but youthful Ohio State defense.

Tulsa’s biggest weakness has been its inability to get stops after allowing close to 40 ppg last season. Week 1 was a step in the right direction. San Jose State was held to just 287 total yards including only 53 yards on 32 carries for a paltry 1.7 yards per rush. You obviously can’t compare San Jose to Ohio State in terms of offensive acumen but I believe the Golden Hurricane made significant offseason strides as a stop unit. Tulsa was excellent as a double-digit underdog last season with easy pointspread covers against Virginia Tech (55-52 loss catching +14), Cincinnati (49-38 loss catching +22.5), and Oklahoma (52-38 loss catching +31.5). The only time they failed to cover in that role was against Navy (44-21 catching +12.5) which was a nightmare matchup for a beaten down defense late in the season. The bottom line is Tulsa has the offensive firepower and Ohio State might not have the requisite focus for 60 minutes making the +28.5 an attractive wager.

Cal Sports

UL Monroe at Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -44

The Sooners have an even bigger game on deck as if they lose to Ohio St next week they’ll be the first team ranked team eliminated from the play-off derby. While a look-ahead situation may scare some off Bob Stoops needs a blowout win in the worst way and since 2005 Oklahoma is 18-7 ATS off a SU loss. Stoops also takes regular season non-conference losses very hard as this is only his second in the last 6 years and fifth in the last 11 season winning the other 4 with an average score of 49-7 against much better opponents then they'll face this week. The Sooners are also 16-3 ATS versus non-conference foes when they are off a SU win as ULM is this week. The Warhawks are the perfect opponent as they only have 2 starters back on defense this year and have a new coaching staff from a team that four opponents to top 50 points last season, three of which were Sun Belt teams. Lastly there is no reason to be impressed with the ULM win versus Southern as the Jaguars are ranked #223 of 250 teams in the Sagarin Poll and the Warhawks were only a 2 TD favorite and took a 14-12 lead into halftime.

Power Sports

Western Kentucky at Alabama
Pick: Western Kentucky

Everybody figures to be touting Alabama this week after they destroyed USC in the opener, 52-6. The early ticket count seems to reflect this mentality as the pointspread here has seen the Tide cross the four TD threshold. You can count me among those who rode 'Bama to that impressive primetime win, but I'd be very wary over backing them in this spot as they have a giant lookahead to Ole Miss next week, which is a double revenge spot. My recommendation this week would be to take the points w/ Western Kentucky. At some point over the last week, you probably saw WKU players falling all over each other when they took the field for their opening game. But what SportsCenter failed to tell you is that the Hilltoppers would go on to win that game in impressive fashion. They destroyed Rice, 46-14 as 19.5-pt chalk, racking up 649 total yards in the process. It will be a far more staunch defense that they go up against this week, but that's what the pointspread is for. While only 1-10 SU as a road dog of 21.5 or more points, WKU is 8-3 ATS in those games. This was a 12-win team a year ago that also won Conference USA. Historically, this spot has not been kind to 'Bama. While they've now won seven consecutive neutral site openers (by an average of 23 PPG!), they are 0-5 ATS in the next game (a 2014 game vs. FAU was called off due to weather). As mentioned above, the Crimson Tide have Ole Miss on deck and that will be a huge game for them considering what has happened each of the last two seasons. It's always dangerous to fade Saban, but it's just too many points here.

Teddy Covers

SMU at Baylor
Play: Over 76

SMU went 1-11 in 2014, and the one win came in their season finale against an equally dismal 2-10 UConn squad. Last year, Chad Morris – the architect of the Clemson offense that hung 40 on Alabama in the National Championship Game in January – took over as head coach. There was a thorough housecleaning. Former Texas A&M quarterback Matt Davis – a top 10 dual threat prospect coming out of high school – got his feet wet in the first year as the starter and in Morris’ offense. But it wasn’t a successful season as SMU went 2-10.

This year, Davis is ready to take the next step, and SMU is primed to explode into an uptempo, high scoring offensive juggernaut. Their skill position talent has been dramatically upgraded – talented, fast kids want to play in this offense – and they’re healthy. After being forced to start freshmen on the line last year, this year, SMU returns 73 career starts on the offensive line. An offense that returns nine starters improved from 11.1 to 27.8 points per game between 2014 and 2015. Expect another fairly dramatic jump this year!

Here are some Chad Morris quotes that stand out: "I felt like last year we started out playing fast. As the year went on, we kind of scaled our offense back to help our football team out. We didn't have the depth, we couldn't hold up in the long run on defense, and so we actually slowed things down, which goes totally against everything I'm about, everything I've stood for the last five six years. And my response to that is, we still went 2-10.

"That didn't work. We really have depth in our defensive line, which is a plus for us. That will help keep a lot of guys fresh. But we're going to go back to doing what we do. We're going to play fast, extremely fast. I felt like in the spring we played as fast as we've ever played, going back to our time at Clemson. That was our method, that was our goal coming out of the spring, to continue to play fast, and that's what we're going to do.

"We're not going to get away from what got us here. Our guys have really adapted to that. We want to turn it loose, get in the left lane and have some fun with this thing."

Davis is a little bit banged up, and we’re not going to know for sure if he is playing until gameday. That being said, his backup Ben Hicks threw an 88-yard TD in relief of Davis last week. Hicks drew recruiting interest from the likes of Michigan, Florida, Houston, Indiana and Texas Tech – he’s no scrub, and I’m comfortable recommending an over wager here whether Davis of Hicks is behind center on Saturday.

Baylor averaged 52 points per game in 2013, 48 points per game in 2014, and 48 points per game in 2015. They hung 56 on SMU last year. While Art Briles is gone, the skill position speed and talent he recruited to Waco is most assuredly still present which is bad news for an undersized, slower stop unit like the one the Mustangs possess.

The betting markets haven’t put much upwards pressure on the highest total on the board this week, offering very reasonable value for an over wager in a game between two explosive offenses that should be played at a ridiculously fast pace.

Carlo Campanella

CM Punk vs. Mickey Gall
Play: Mickey Gall -425

Former "pro wrestler," CM Punk, makes his fighting debut on UFC 203 this Saturday in Cleveland. Punk, who's real name is Phil Brooks, is 38 years old and has NO fights- amateur or pro- in his career. In fact, to legally be a pro fighter/boxer in Ohio, you must have 5 amateur fights, with a winning record. However, CM Punk doesn't qualify for this, but Ohio sanctioned him anyways. He'll fight Mickey Gall, who only has 2 professional fights (2-0), of which he won both, but let's not forget that he also had many amateur fights and has been training in the martial arts for almost a decade! Gall won both of his pro fights by submission and highly doubt that CM Punk will be able to stop any real submission hold, especially from an opponent that's 14 years younger and in better shape than him.

Tony George

Wyoming vs. Nebraska
Play: Wyoming +24½

The Huskers struggled in the first half the Fresno State game last week, I know because I was at the game and it was 14-10 at halftime before Nebraska's depth and offense were too much for the Bulldogs in the second half. That said Wyoming is better than advertised this season. The last time Nebraska played Wyoming is was a high yardage and high scoring shootout with Nebraska winning by 3 in a 37-34 game and that was back in 2013.

What this boils down to is real simple, this is a Look Ahead spot for Nebraska, who has a huge game with Oregon on deck the next week in Lincoln, and I doubt they throw the playbook at Wyoming here, as it is clear Nebraska is the better team in this matchup as evidenced by the huge point spread oddsmakers have posted on this game. One always has to look at the schedule when heavy favorites are playing a weak sister, because things are not always as they seem. Many coaches with a big game on deck will rest starters with a big lead, use conservative pay calling down the stretch and the backdoor cover many times is in play, which I feel is the situation in this game. Bear in mind ther Huskers were a 5 win team last year and they have many holes still left on the defensive side of the ball which opens up the door here for a backdoor cover as well.

Wyoming's QB Allen in his debut last week threw for 245 yards and was 20-29 with 2 TD's, and they balanced their attack well with 243 yards on the ground in an OT upset over Northern Illinois. While many say the OT game and travel might be a bit much for the Cowboys, I think not as Wyoming coach Craig Bohl used to be a Nebraska coach as a DC and will have his team fired up for this one.

All in all I say the Huskers get a nice win here, and a 17-20 point win would be a nice cushion for the Huskers with the Ducks on deck, and I say the scheduling spot and backdoor cover angles are both in play.

Harry Bondi

UTAH STATE +16.5 over Southern Cal

One of the “near-misses” in college football was the USC Trojans, who face perhaps the toughest schedule in the entire country. In addition to getting destroyed by Alabama last week in the season opener, the Trojans also have to face Notre Dame, along with the typically tough Pac 12 slate. This week’s game will be looked at as a “breather” for the Trojans, and that’s exactly why we will take the extra points with the Aggies. We are huge fans of Utah State Head Coach Matt Wells, who has stepped in for Gary Andersen and taken this team to a bowl game in four straight seasons. In the previous three seasons, Utah State has been a double-digit dog just three times and covered all three games, including an epic victory at BYU in 2014 as a 21- point underdog. Utah State opened at home with a 45-6 win over Weber State last week, so you know Wells gave his starters plenty of rest and spent the entire preseason game-planning for USC. The Trojans, meanwhile, have a brand-new head coach, had to travel to Texas to face defending champ Alabama last week, and have a date at Stanford next week. The Aggies take home the cash!