River City Sharps
Duke -5
Both Duke and Wake Forest won their season openers last week, although they were done in very different fashions. Wake won an absolutely ugly game 7-3 over Tulane, while Duke rolled over FCS-foe NC Central. Lots of questions for Duke, who are trying to replace QB Thomas Sirk and believe they have found a QB with Daniel Jones, who was impressive last week. Wake’s offense was more of the same last week, producing just 175 total yards last week, highlighted by just three first downs in the second half, against a very average Tulane team. Now they get a shot with David Cutcliffe’s Blue Devils, who has been tremendous as an early season home favorite. Duke has won the last four games in this series and Wake is 0-4-1 in their last five against the number. Wake can’t decide if Wolford or Hinton will play QB and we expect both will see time, but that won’t matter. Duke is not the same team as they have had the past several years, but they are MUCH better than this Wake squad and will take care of business on Saturday.
Jason Sharpe
Central Florida at Michigan
Play: Over 55.5
The Central Florida Knights are going a whole new direction this year as they are playing a much faster pace offensively and claim to be taking it to the extreme, wanting to be the fastest no-huddle team in the country. That was on display last week as the Knights offense posted 38 points and ran 90 plays overall in the game. The UCF offense will be put to the test here in this one against what is a very good Michigan Wolverines defense. The Wolverines defense don't face a lot of faster paced teams, playing a lot of their games in the Big Ten. Head coach Jim Harbaugh went out and hired a new defensive coordinator, getting one of the best in the game in Boston College's Don Brown, who goes by the nickname of Dr.Blitz. Brown is expected to bring constant pressure here in this one, which could make for a lot of big plays by both teams when UCF has the football and big plays usually results in points being scored.On offense Michigan returns a lot of their key guys from last season, including 4 of their 5 starting offensive lineman, who as a group are one of the more experienced offensive lines in the country this year to go along with 3 pass catching (WR/TE) threats that are all supposed to be NFL draft picks next season. The biggest story, though, coming out of Michigan after week one is their new freshman running back Chris Evans, who has everyone in Ann Arbor very excited after his 112-yard debut performance last week. Evans big-play ability gives the Wolverines the home run threat in the backfield that they've been lacking the last few years. Added all up and this one looks to have a lot of points scored. Play the 'over' here.
Raphael Esparza
Boston College at UMass
Play: Over 39.5
You are probably asking yourself why do I like this game 'OVER' since last weekend Boston College scored only 14 points against Georgia Tech and UMASS scored only 7 points against Florida. We should see Boston College score more than 14 points this Saturday as last weekend the Eagles had to play in a downpour in Ireland. The Eagles run game will be the difference in this game, and if UMASS can't stop the run then this game will fly over. UMASS averaged 27.3 ppg last year, and again we should see more Minutemen points at home (Gillette Stadium), and UMASS could keep this game close from the start. UMASS is 6-2 O/U in the month of September, and if the Minutemen can keep this game close and score early we should see both schools score in the low 20s Saturday afternoon.
Indian Cowboy
Western Kentucky (+29) over Alabama
Make no mistake, we are big Alabama fans, and even our daily video has Nick Saban behind us as we are firm believers in the process both in how Alabama wins football games as well as even incorporating it into our daily lives. But, being Alabama fans, you know when the team is in for a letdown after such a monumental win on the road against a Top 25 team in the University of Southern California (USC). Alabama routed USC. There is no one who can prep for a game better than Nick Saban, outside of Urban Meyer, and the Tide showed that. Of course, having an entire starting defense of 5* recruits also helps, too (first time in the history of college football in fact). Alabama, however, has Ole Miss on deck -- the same team that has given them plenty of trouble over the years, including Ole Miss beating them 37-43 on the road last year. They will undoubtedly likely be looking ahead to that big game. Plus, they come off such a huge win that it is a case of a classic letdown spot, too. Plus, Western Kentucky is not a pushover team. This team just beat Rice 46-14 as 19-point favorites and they lost to Alabama in 2012 by a score of 0-35. This is a potent offense and we like Western Kentucky to get up for their Super Bowl, so to speak, against the Tide whereas Alabama cakewalks a bit through here. We have Alabama by 24 points.
Alan Harris
UL-Monroe vs. Oklahoma
Play: Over 65
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the UL-Monroe Warhawks hit the road to take on the Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK on Saturday night. ULM has posted a 4-1 record to the over in their last five games where they faced a team with a losing record going back to the 2015 season, and they have that same 4-1 record to the over in their last five games where they faced a team from the Big 12. They have also gone 5-2 to the over in their last seven games overall, and they have posted an impressive 40-19-2 to the over in their last 61 games following an ATS win. Oklahoma has also been an over team in the spot they are in here on Saturday night as they have gone 6-2 to the over in their last eight games where they faced a team with a winning record, and they have gone an excellent 4-1 to the over in their last five home games. They have also posted a 4-1 record to the over following a game where they failed to gain at least 100 yards on the ground, and they have gone over the number in 20 of their last 27 games following an ATS loss. Throw in the fact that the Sooners have gone a lights out 8-1 to the over in their last nine games following a straight up loss, and that's where we'll have our play as we think the Sooners come out firing on all cylinders after their loss to Houston, putting up a ton of points in the process on Saturday night in Oklahoma.
Oskeim Sports
Rice vs. Army
Play: Rice +9
Rice head coach David Bailiff returns a veteran-laden squad (16 returning starters) with one of the most improved defenses in the country (although you'd never know it based upon last week's effort at Western Kentucky). The Owls' linebacking unit is anchored by 2nd Team Conference USA Alex Lyons, who garnered 77 tackles, 5.5 tackles for a loss, 1.5 sacks and 4 passes broken up last season. The Owls' defensive line is also much more experienced with three returning starters and seven players overall with starting experience.
After being gashed for 649 total yards at 10.0 yards per play in their season-opening loss to the Hilltoppers, look for 5th-year defensive coordinator Chris Thurmond to have the Owls' stop unit hyper-focused for Army's option attack. Rice head coach David Bailiff consistently praised the defensive unit's senior leadership during the summer ("we have great senior leadership on that side of the ball"), and I expect Bailiff to have that unit prepared for redemption after being humiliated last Thursday.
Rice's front seven actually played extremely well against the run last week, limiting the Hilltoppers to just 97 rushing yards on 30 carries (3.2 yards per carry). The Owls are 11-5-1 ATS after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game so history suggests a better effort from the Owls. From an offensive standpoint, Rice is loaded at the running back position with four returning players led by senior Darik Dillard. Bailiff has been particularly high on both Dillard ("one of the most solid, consistent performers that we've had") and Jowan Davis ("had an incredible spring").
After combining for only 29 yards on 15 carries last week, both Dillard and Davis should have more success against Army's front seven. The Black Knights will likely be without starting linebacker J. Smith and key backup linebacker S. Takitaki, along with starting defensive back S. Johnson. Coach Bailiff also describes tight end Connor Cella as one of the "top tight end in our conference" and will be a popular target for quarterback Tyler Stehling, whose nickname is "Red Rifle" because of his explosive arm.
The fifth-year senior worked exclusively with co-offensive coordinator Larry Edmundson during the offseason, but he struggled in last week's season-opener at Western Kentucky, completing 23-of-38 pass attempts for 186 yards at 4.9 yards per pass play. Stehling also threw two interceptions and finished with a 62.0 quarterback rating. The silver lining from last week's game was the fact that Stehling led the team with 85 rushing yards on 11 carries for 7.7 yards per rush attempt and one touchdown.
I was also impressed with Rice punter Jack Fox, who averaged 44.7 yards per punt with a long of 53 yards. From a technical standpoint, the road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings in this series, while the underdog stands at 3-1-1 ATS in the last five clashes. More importantly, Army is a money-burning 0-18 SU and 4-14 ATS following a win since 2010! Moreover, non-conference favorites in Game Two of the season, off an upset win as a double-digit underdog, are just 4-12-1 ATS since 1980.
The Black Knights are also a woeful 4-18 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more points, 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 0-4 SU versus Rice since 2006. Home field advantage doesn't appear to be too significant for the Black Knights as they were 0-6 SU last season on their home turf, including losses to FCS foe Fordham and Tulane.
My math model, which is bullish on Army (I also really like the Black Knights this season), projects a fair line of seven points so we are getting solid line value with the road underdog.
Alatex
Western Kentucky at Alabama
Play: Alabama -29.5
One of the themes in college football from last week was how bad the SEC looked. Seven losses in the opening weekend was the most ever for the conference, and even in victory, Florida and Tennessee struggled against lesser opponents. For a little over a quarter, it looked like Alabama was going to be part of the ugliness as they trailed USC 3-0 and failed to move the ball on offense. Three quarters later, it was apparent that Alabama was the class of the SEC and the nation after the 52-6 whipping of the Trojans.
Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts’ entry into the game was the turning point for the Alabama offense, even though he lost a fumble on his first collegiate play. Hurts tossed two touchdowns and ran for two more as the Tide piled up over 400 yards of offense in the final three quarters.
On defense, after allowing a USC field goal on their first possession, the Tide completely shut down the USC offense. The Trojans seemingly faced a 3rd and 13 on every possession and only converted 4-of-20 attempts on 3rd and 4th downs. The USC offensive line was total overmatched by the Bama defensive line whether trying to open holes for the running game or protect the passer on passing plays.
Western Kentucky is also coming off an impressive performance in Week 1; a 46-14 whipping of Rice. New quarterback Mike White threw for 517 yards and three touchdowns in his debut and the offense piled up 649 yards against the overmatched Owls defense. The Hilltoppers were barely impeded last week, but that will change drastically this week.
I actually expect Western Kentucky to have a little bit of success on offense in this game, but that doesn’t mean they are going to be able to score much against the Alabama defense. The class difference is just too much for them to overcome as they will be overmatched on the line of scrimmage and at the skill positions. Keep in mind that they managed 14 points against Vanderbilt and 20 points against LSU last year as they went on to win 12 games against just two losses and averaged 44 points per game.
Defensively the Hilltoppers will have a very hard time stopping the Alabama running game. They allowed 48 points to LSU last year and 497 total yards of offense. They even allowed 597 yards to South Florida in their bowl win against the Bulls. This is a defense that returns just four starters and will be facing an Alabama offense looking to work on its game. Nick Saban will not be interested in taking it easy; he is trying to get his relatively new offense ready for the challenges of the SEC, so I don’t expect him to tell Lane Kiffin to lay off the gas when they get a big lead.
Drew Martin
Middle Tennessee St at Vanderbilt
Play: Middle Tennessee St +4.5
Middle Tennessee State offensive coordinator Tony Franklin and Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason will both square off for the first time since 2013 when Franklin was the OC at California and Mason the DC at Stanford. Saturday’s game is also a rematch from last year’s close fought defensive struggle that Vandy won 17-13 in Murfreesboro. This year’s battle has a couple key differences that should sway the outcome in the Blue Raiders favor.
Middle’s offense is led by quarterback Brent Stockstill who is the reigning C-USA Freshman of the Year. Although he did not perform well in clutch situations in last year’s game he did manage to put up 286 passing yards against a very stout SEC defense. The Blue Raiders did have difficulty running the football (34 yards) and pushing inside of the red zone (3 trips) and it resulted in only 13 points. In Vanderbilt’s loss to South Carolina last week, Vandy allowed only 308 yards to what looks to be one of the worst offenses in the SEC. You wouldn’t know it by the names of their jerseys, but MTSU which projects to be one of the best offenses in C-USA has far more ability to move the football, especially with Stockstill having a full year under his belt. Note that Stockstill broke Logan Kilgore’s consecutive completion record in the second quarter last week. Kilgore’s record was 19, and Stockstill completed 22 straight passes. The Murfreesboro native finished 30-of-36 for 329 yards and five touchdowns.
MTSU’s defense is starting three new linebackers and two new safeties though looked solid in Week 1’s 55-0 shutout of Alabama A&M. They held Vandy to 17 in last year’s loss and should once again be able to play straight up against a Commodores offense that is simply not built to win games by margin. Take the points.
Andrew Lange
California at San Diego St
Play: Under 62
Following its 51-31 win over Hawaii in Australia, the Cal Golden Bears will have had over two weeks to prepare for a tough trip to San Diego State. The Aztecs don't get to host many power conference teams (34-30 loss vs. Oregon State in 2013) and will have their sights set on avenging last year's 35-7 loss to Cal in Berkeley.
Despite a slew of defections on offense, Cal managed 630 yards on 89 plays (7.0 ypp) against the Rainbow Warriors. Texas Tech transfer quarterback Davis Webb looks to be an ideal fit as he hung 441 yards and four touchdowns. But for such a young offense, this is a massive step up in class as San Diego State's defense grades out as the best in the Mountain West and among the top 20 nationally.
Cal obviously played in a lot of high scoring games last season but against more moderate paced and or pro style offenses, the outcomes were far more traditional: 30-24 win at Washington, 30-24 loss at Utah, 27-21 loss vs. USC, and a 35-22 loss at Stanford. You can also add to that group their 35-7 win over San Diego State. The game featured a relatively modest 136 plays and while there was 810 combined yards, that still equates to around 55 points (the total closed 59).
Another interesting angle is San Diego State's offense. In 2014 the Aztecs averaged 394.5 ypg, 5.92 ypp, and 25.0 ppg. In 2015's breakout 11-win campaign, the Aztecs averaged 375.3 ypg, 5.67 ypp, and 32.1 ppg. The team's strength of schedule both years was nearly identical but the difference and main cause of over a touchdown scoring improvement was a nation-leading +22 turnover margin. Good defenses force turnovers but those numbers simply can't be duplicated. That's not to say San Diego State's offense isn't capable, but I expect to see it rank in the middle of the pack in the Mountain West in terms of yardage production. And while Cal doesn't possess much in the way of a stop unit, they do have speed and won't have to gameplan as much for an SDSU offense that prefers to run the football right at teams and control the clock.
I see Cal being able to put up more resistance that its reputation suggests and San Diego State to stick to ground per usual. Value on the under.
The Real Animal
Western Kentucky at Alabama
Pick: Under 61.5
Last Saturday was a bit out of character for Alabama. The Tide led USC 17-3 at the half and 38-3 after three quarters. Yet there was QB Blake Barnett throwing a 45-yard TD pass to Gehrig Dieter with 9:25 to go and with a 45-3 lead. That secured the ‘OVER’ in the game. Now normally Alabama would jump out to a big lead and then just sit on it playing somewhat conservative football. You would never see Nick call for that kind of play up 42-points with less than 10 minutes to go. THAT, I GUARANTEE YOU, WAS ALL LANE KFFIN! The former USC head coach wanted to rub it in big time to the Trojans as offensive coordinator with the Tide. But as a result we get a higher total this week on the Alabama/Western Kentucky game. Now granted it takes some serious gonads to play a Hilltopper game ‘UNDER’. But by the same token you won’t see many Alabama totals in the 60’s. Chances are fairly good Alabama will run off to a 14 or 21-point lead early in the second quarter and squat. There’s no reason to run it up on Western Kentucky or embarrass them. The margin of victory is inconsequential this week. But after viewing that defense last week, how do the Hilltoppers score? Go ‘UNDER’. You won’t see Mike White throw for over 500 yards like he did last week against Rice. Plus Bama has Ole Miss on deck. You think by the fourth quarter they will give a rats’ ass about Western Kentucky?
Wunderdog
Penn St @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Under 48
Penn State has loads of defensive talent and looked sharp in the opener, holding Kent to 13 points. The Nittany Lions showed a multitude of nickel looks with different linebacker and corner combinations. Penn State deployed a total of eight defensive backs and five linebackers, allowing just 129 yards on 14-of-28 passing. Coach James Franklin has always been known for impressive defenses, ranking #14 in the nation in yards and eighth against the pass in 2015. But the Nittany Lion offense finished #105 in the country in total yards, #105 in rushing and #101 in scoring. Penn State is 39-18 UNDER the total in September, plus 22-9 UNDER in non-conference games. They face in-state rival Pitt, a run-oriented offense behind running back James Conner. Conner is returning from a serious injury and had only 53 yards last week at 3.1 yarde per carry, but the defense dominated in a 33-7 win over Villanova. Pittsburgh employs an ultra-aggressive defensive style, ranking #16 nationally and third in the ACC in sacks last season. The 'D' is the strength of the team again behind senior DE Ejuan Price, LB Matt Galambos and safety Jordan Whitehead. Price set an FBS record with five sacks against Louisville and ranked #10 nationally with 11.5. Fifteen different Panthers players were in on at least one sack. Pitt is 9-4-2 UNDER the total after allowing fewer than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Look for a fierce defensive slugfest between these area rivals with far better defenses than offenses. Take this one to finish UNDER the total.
ASA
Washington St / Boise St Over 74
There are five games on the board Saturday that have totals set at 70 or higher and one of those games doesn’t have a number set high enough. We will play OVER 74 in the Washington State versus Boise State game. These two teams want to play fast, run a ton of offensive plays and put up points in a hurry. Last year the Cougars were 3rd in the nation in plays per game at 85.2 while the Broncos averaged 84.8 plays per game which was 5th highest. Both of these teams ranked in the top 39 in points per game last season with WSU averaging 32.7PPG and Boise State 38PPG which was 13th best in NCAA football. Washington State converted points in the red zone on 95.5% of their possessions inside the 20 yard line while Boise State averaged a point for every 13 yards gained offensively which was 29th in CFB. Boise put up 55 points in their Bowl win over Northern Illinois last year and opened this season up with 45 against UL Lafayette. Last season the Broncos topped 50 points in games five times. WSU is coming off a game against Eastern Washington in which the two teams combined for 87 total points. Both teams are loaded with talent on offense including their starting QB’s. The Cougars rely on junior quarterback Luke Falk who leads the “Air Raid” attack while the Broncos have a stud quarterback of their own in sophomore Brett Rypien (nephew of former NFL and Super Bowl champ Mark Rypien). Expect plenty of points in this one.
Rob Vinciletti
Iowa State vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa -15
Iowa is once again the better team here and Iowa. St has failed to cover 8 of 11 as a road dog from 14 to 17. We are also playing against them as teams with new coaches in game 2 that are on the road for the first time have failed to cover over 80% of the time if they won or lost game one by 10 or less points and also qualify in a secondary new coach system that pertains to their losing record and the opponent having 7 or more wins last year. Look for Iowa to pull away late and get the win and cover.
Stephen Nover
Rice +10
Rice has high hopes of returning to a bowl game with 16 starters back. Those hopes, though, are in serious jeopardy if the Owls open the season 0-3. That likely will happen if Rice loses this game since it plays Baylor next week.
The Owls put themselves in this must-win spot by losing, 46-14, to Western Kentucky in their first game. That was on Sept. 1. So the Owls have had extra time to prepare for Army's one-dimensional ground attack.
The lone bright spot for Rice in its loss to Western Kentucky was displaying decent run defense holding the Hilltoppers to an average of 3.2 yards per rush.
Rice isn't nearly as bad as it looked against Western Kentucky. Certainly the Owls need to shore up their pass defense. But Army is strictly ground oriented and plays at a much slower pace. The Black Knights are in a major letdown spot, too, having stunned Temple, 28-13, last week as 14 1/2-point underdogs.
Army, which has only one winning record during the past six years, didn't win a home game last season against a lined opponent and was 0-3 against the spread as a home favorite. The Black Knights are a stunning 0-18 straight-up following a victory, 4-14 against the spread since 2010.
Rice defeated Army, 38-31, as 6 1/2-point home favorites last year. Now look at the spread. It's out of whack with too much emphasis on last week's abnormal results.
Rice isn't nearly as bad as it looked versus Western Kentucky and Army certainly isn't nearly as good as it looked against Temple, which was missing injured star running back Jahad Thomas. He rushed for 1,262 yards and scored 17 touchdowns last season.
Matt Fargo
Washington St vs. Boise St
Play: Boise St -10
Boise St. returns home following a blowout win last weekend in Lafayette and the stage could not be set any better. The Broncos concluded last season with a 55-7 romp over Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl and came into this season on the cusp of the AP Top 25. They do not have any marquee opponents on the schedule so in order to get into any playoff conversation, it will take winning out and winning out big. There is some huge motivation for Boise St. heading home after back-to-back losses at Albertsons Stadium to New Mexico and Air Force last November wrapped up the Broncos home schedule, the first consecutive home defeats since 1997. They have not lost a nonconference regular-season home game since 2001, a streak that is 30 straight victories and counting and that last defeat happened to come against their opponent right here. Washington St. is coming off a loss at home against Eastern Washington, the second straight season the Cougars have opened with a loss to an FCS opponent. Last year, they rebounded with a win on the road but that was against Rutgers so the challenge will be a lot greater Saturday night. That victory over the Scarlett Knights was just the second in the last 13 non-conference road games for the Cougars which is not ideal heading to Boise St. in this situation. Washington St. will get its yards and points but the Broncos will be able to pull away for the easy victory.