Ray Monohan
Kansas -2½
The Jayhawks and bobcats get set for battle on Saturday and not only does Kansas have the value, but how can you not root for this team.
The Jayhawks season win total opened at 1.5 and after their Week 1 win, they have a chance to cash in on the Over.
Kansas ended a 15 game losing streak after dominating Rhode Island and they looked impressive doing it.
The Jayhawks pass game was nearly flawless, as Montell Cozart and Ryan Willis both looked impressive. They'll get a chance to pick on a weak OU secondary which should be a recipe for success here.
Some trends to note. Ohio is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games on the road, Ohio is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road.
Kansas has a new feeling here after their first win since 2014. The energy is high and the spirits are up. Look for them to make it back to back wins here.
Jeff Allen
Northern Illinois vs. South Florida
Play: Over 57
South Florida is on a big time run from the end of last year with both sides of the ball improving seemingly every game. If the Bulls do have a weak spot it could be the defense which will be hard presses to stop veteran Huskie QB Hare who figure to need to trade points to keep things close with current NIU defense far below recent editions.
Matt Mohr
Arkansas vs. TCU
Play: TCU -7½
TCU bounces back and the defensive genius Gary Patterson takes it out on Arkansas. Expect TCU's high flying offense to pick on the replacement for CB Kevin Richardson ll who was injured in week 1. The stat of the day is TCU being 12-0 ATS since 2014 as a home favorites. Arkansas will try to keep up on offense but does not have enough bullets in the gun. TCU will put up steady points. e]Expect the game to be well in hand by the 4th quarter.
Bill Biles
North Carolina vs. Illinois
Play: Illinois +7½
With Lovie Smith taking over for Illinois I expect a much better run program. he started off great with a big win in the opener and now he will look to get an upset over North Carolina. North Carolina let up 200 or more yards rushing for the 10th time in the last 20 games. Look for Kendrick foster to play a huge roll for Illinois. Look for an upset here.
Kyle Hunter
Wyoming vs. Nebraska
Play: Wyoming +25
The Nebraska Cornhuskers play the Oregon Ducks next week. They host the Wyoming Cowboys this week. If there was ever a look ahead spot this is it. Nebraska can't be excited to play a Wyoming team that was 2-10 last year.
Craig Bohl has proven himself to be a good coach though in the past at North Dakota State, and I think he is beginning to build up this Wyoming program. Bohl also played for the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the last 1970's. He definitely will be looking for a strong performance against his old team.
Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen is a big key for the team. In the past, Wyoming has had good running backs, but they haven't had a decent quarterback to go along with them. This year they have a quarterback who is a good dual-threat guy. Brian Hill and Shaun Wick are very good running backs as well.
Nebraska was only up 14-10 at half against Fresno State last weekend, and that wasn't a look ahead spot for them. The Cowboys are improved and there is plenty of backdoor potential in this one if it is necessary.
Jimmy Boyd
Georgia Southern vs. South Alabama
Play: Georgia Southern -13½
I believe we are seeing a big overreaction here to South Alabama improbable 21-20 upset win at Mississippi State last week. The Jaguars were very fortunate to win that game, but more than anything they beat a Mississippi State team that is WAY down from the previous two years. The Bulldogs lost arguably the best player the school has ever had in quarterback Dak Prescott. I just don't think people realize how much he put this team on his back. They also lost one of the best defensive players in the country in defensive tackle Chris Jones, who many experts had graded as the best defensive linemen in college football last year. No surprise, both of those players shined in the NFL preseason.
Not only is South Alabama overvalued coming off that huge win, but it also has them in a prime spot for a major letdown this week. If that wasn't bad enough, they now face a completely different offense in Georgia Southern's triple-option attack, which they have really struggled with the past two years. In 2014, they lost at home 28-6 and were outgained 420 to 296. Last year was even worse, as they lost 55-17 and were outgained 542 to 136.
It's important to note, that even though Mississippi State's passing attack wasn't working, the Jaguars couldn't slow down the Bulldogs rushing attack. They allowed Mississippi State to run for 239 yards on 34 attempts. That's right at 7.0 yards/carry. Now they face a Georgia Southern team that is far superior in the run department. The Eagles put up 420 yards on 69 attempts last week against Savannah State and have averaged 360+ yards/game over each of the previous 4 seasons.
Based on what we know about these two teams and how they matchup, there's a really good chance that Georgia Southern scores 28 or more points and rushes for at least 300 yards. That's important to note, as the Eagles are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games when they rush for 300 or more yards (avg win by 26.6 ppg), while the Jaguars are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 when they allow 28 or more points (avg loss by 21.8 ppg). We also see that the Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September, while South Alabama is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a SU win.
Jim Feist
Iowa State vs. Iowa
Play: Under 51.5
A rivalry game which means both defenses will play with great intensity. And both defenses are better than they looked last week. Iowa State has a balanced offense, preferring to run the football with talented RB sophomore Mike Warren (1,339 yards, 5.9 ypc in 2015), who was great as a freshman. Iowa State is on a 14-9-1 run under the total. The Iowa defense is loaded with talent, one of the best defenses in the country last season and 8 starters return. They were 15th in the nation allowing 18.5 ppg. They struggled a bit last week against Miami of Ohio when star LB Josey Jewell was suspended in the first quarter, but they will bounce back with a strong effort. A year ago they held Iowa State to 63 yards rushing for the game and no second half points in a 31-17 win. Iowa is 10-3-1 under the total vs the Big 12. This is always a fierce defensive game, with the under 8-2-1, including 5-0 under the last five meetings at Kinnick stadium.
SPORTS WAGERS
Man City +143 over MAN UNITED
The first match in this week’s EPL slate will be the first leg of the Manchester Derby featuring City travelling to United. Both teams have accumulated nine points thus far in the Premier League and both teams are in a 'championship or bust' mentality. Besides United being the home team, the largest factor to this line is the suspension of the EPL's top scorer and a perennial top five striker in all of Europe, Sergio Aguero. On a team with as much talent as City, the impact of his loss is being heavily overstated. City has the ability to generate goals from many areas, including set pieces and a lot of speed on the outside. What they also have is Kevin De Bruyne. The Belgian international is emerging as one of the top midfielders in the world, and as he matures and continues to display his versatility in all facets of the game. The most important factor in this situation will be to facilitate the front three, no matter who they are. Aguero is an amazing talent, but he is also heavily overrated, as many of his goals come from penalty kicks that are created by the pacey ball handling attackers sprinkled throughout City's roster. The loss of Sergio for this match will no doubt impact the offense, but in no way is this team completely inept without him.
The opinion of many experts when comparing these two, is that United's backline/Keeper combo are much greater than City's, and this is based on City being unable to obtain a clean sheet thus far while Man United has two clean sheets through their first three games. However, any that watched the match between United and Hull two weeks ago would know that United were lucky on two occasions not to concede, as an inch difference would have changed the outcome of that match dramatically. While United were able to squeeze a 1-0 win out of Hull, Man City were dominating a much more talented West Ham squad 3-1, and in the week previous, City dominated Stoke 4-1. The bottom line is that we don't really know which team is stronger where given the extreme difference in schedules, and such a small sample size of results, but one thing we do know, is that Manchester United is being heavily overpriced here.
Another factor to consider is the popularity of two massive acquisitions for United, Ibrahimovic and Pogba. This type of name recognition and the lack of Sergio Aguero and CB Vincent Kompany will sway public opinion. While Ibrahimovic is an absolute legend, Pogba was made the most expensive transaction in history, making him an extremely overrated commodity.
The home/away factor in the derby is grossly overstated as well, as there is no track record to show the home team has a distinct advantage when these two meet. Dating back 10 years, the home team has a winning percentage of 50%. Add in the star recognition, lack of Aguero, and the perception that United is better at preventing goals and we have an inflated line. We’ll play it accordingly.
Leicester City +½ +138 over LIVERPOOL
The Primetime matchup in week four of the EPL features Liverpool's home opener, welcoming in the defending champion Leicester City. Both teams enter the match 1-1-1, and are coming off positive results in their last match. Liverpool played very well at Tottenham and was able to hold onto to a 1-1 draw, where the Foxes were triumphant at home vs. Swansea City 2-1.
The final week of the transfer window saw the Foxes go a bit off the board with their club record signing of Algerian striker Islam Slamini for Sporting Lisbon. Slamini tallied 31 goals in 48 contests last season, and was in high demand amongst the big clubs in Europe. However, it was Leicester who won the Slamini sweepstakes. This was largely in part to fellow Algerian Marhez's courting of his Algerian teammate. This acquisition is massive for Leicester, as it provides an excellent complement to Jamie Vardy, and will open up more space for the lethal counter attack Leicester implements. The Foxes now have an arsenal of attacking threats and should be in full flight vs. Liverpool's shaky left side and backline.
Liverpool will finally have their first home game of the season, and will finally have most of their regulars available for this match. They enter this match as a heavy favorite over the defending champions and will undoubtedly be amped up for this one. Unfortunately for them, being amped up in soccer isn't the same as being amped up in football or other contact sports where the physicality and energy can take a toll on the opponent. Liverpool is extremely prone to making mistakes and while they should dominate possession, this is exactly what Claudio Ranieri game plans for, a team that makes critical mistakes, and gives up numerous counter attacking opportunities.
Liverpool is a great team to back when they are underdogs. They have high probability to score in every game, and play a very open exciting style that can catch teams that take them lightly. However, backing them as a large favorite is risky. Because of their style, they are susceptible to be scored on each game. Even when in the lead, Liverpool’s backline isn't capable of locking games down and securing victories. As a large underdog at Arsenal and at Tottenham, Liverpool was able to win and draw respectively, but as a significant favorite at Burnely, they were dealt a 2-0 loss. This match up should provide a lot of pace and be a very entertaining 90 minutes. Given what Leicester likes to do, and where Liverpool is at their weakest, taking Leicester to earn at least a point at Anfield is the play.
Big Al
California vs. San Diego St
Pick: California
California opened its season early, on August 26, with a win over Hawaii, 51-31, while the Aztecs won last week, 31-0, vs. New Hampshire. Thus, the Bears will have had 15 days in between its first and second games of the season. And since 1980, rested teams off a win in Game 1 have gone 104-75 ATS vs. foes not playing with rest, including 24-14, 63% ATS when installed as a road underdog. That’s one reason I favor California on Saturday. Another is that Pac-12 Conference teams have been solid as single-digit underdogs in non-conference games, as they’ve gone 142-98 ATS, including 38-11 ATS when rested and playing an opponent off a straight-up win.
Larry Ness
Wake Forest vs. Duke
Pick: Duke
ACC rivals Wake Forest and Duke are best known in the basketball arena (especially the Blue Devils) but in football, not so much! That said, the two schools will meet Saturday as they have each year since 1921, EXCEPT in 1943 and 1966. Dave Clawson is in his third year at Wake, coming off back-to-back 3-9 seasons, while his teams have averaged a woeful 14.8 and 17.8 PPG. The Demon Deacons opened the current season with a victory that defines the phrase ‘ugly win!’ QB John Walford threw for just 79 yards, while leading RB Kendall Hinton managed just 24 rushing yards. Led by an excellent defensive effort (Tulane was held to three points on 280 yards), Wake Forest won its season opener for the second year in a row.
As for Duke, the Blue Devils had little trouble rolling over NC Central, scoring 49 points in the blowout win, while gaining 535 yards. David Cutcliffe enters his 9th season at Durham and takes a four-year bowl streak into 2016 (Duke hadn’t been to a bowl since 1994 prior to his arrival). Redshirt freshman QB Daniel Jones threw for 189 yards with two TDs (no INTs) and added a rushing TD plus RB Duncan’s 115 yards led the way for 308 rushing yards (4.9 YPC). Yes, Duke’s opponent on opening weekend was just an FCS school but the majority of the team's skill players got into the fray, as 11 players had at least one carry and 11 finished with at least one reception.
Duke has averaged 31.5, 32.8, 32.4 and 31.5 PPG during its current bowl streak and it’s my belief that the Blue Devils will eaily handle this pointspread.
MMA OddsBreaker
Mickey Gall to win by submission
CM Punk is making his professional debut tomorrow night after years spent as a professional wrestler. Punk is 37 years old and has suffered through countless injuries in his career including several after he began training in mixed martial arts two years ago. His opponent is 24-year old Mickey Gall, a talented grappler with pretty solid striking power. Gall has won both of his two professional fights via submission and has been competing in grappling tournaments for years. No matter how much effort CM Punk has put into becoming a complete mixed martial artist before making his debut, he's still going to be behind Gall in every facet of the sport. I like the Gall by submission prop because even if Gall hurts Punk, he'll likely jump o
DAVE COKIN
NEW MEXICO AT NEW MEXICO ST
PLAY: NEW MEXICO -12.5
I usually try to avoid going against weak home dogs in big rivalry games. The rationale is simple enough. The bad team will point to the rivalry as one of its biggest games and will usually come up with a tremendous effort. Fact is, that’s often been the case in this New Mexico-New Mexico State series, and I imagine the Aggies will be all out to try and upset the Lobos tonight. But there are just too many other variables that tell me the favorite has a good chance to dominate this game and cover the good sized spread in the process.
The first point of interest to me is the New Mexico option attack facing an Aggies entry that got run over by UTEP last week. The Miners ran for just under six yards per carry and amassed nearly 300 yards on the ground. That does not bode well for the hosts being able to contain a pretty prolific New Mexico option. I’ll be surprised if State gets many stops here, and there’s a good chance they will eventually wear down. The Aggies have a couple of big tackles, but the ends and linebackers are very small by today’s standards.
New Mexico State managed 345 yards and 22 points last week in the loss at UTEP. But they did very little in the first half, gaining only 114 yards and scoring just three points. So the bulk of the Aggies offense came after the issue was settled. Also, this was a 38-16 game before New Mexico State got a TD on a late fumble, so even the 38-22 final was a little misleading.
That offense might not be any better here. Larry Rose, who is actually a really good running back and is the best player for New Mexico State, missed last week’s game and it looks like he’ll be out again for this game. So that means QB Tyler Rogers will have to key the attack and he’s just not a very accurate passer. It’s not like New Mexico has a great defense, and in fact they gave up a couple of early drives to South Dakota last week before settling down. But even if the Lobos are shaky stoppers, I’m not sure the home team will be able to take advantage to any extent.
I also like the fact that Lobos coach Bob Davie is taking this game ultra-seriously. Part of that is the typical coachspeak, but Davie was pretty emphatic about what took place last year after an easy opening week win. They fell on their faces in the second game and got crushed by Tulsa. I’ll also mention that while the Lobos won last year’s duel with the Aggies, it wasn’t at all easy. New Mexico was horrible in the first half before taking over after halftime and dominating the rest of the way.
So this comes down to a matter of New Mexico executing on offense and not letting a shorthanded Aggies squad gain any early confidence with their own offense. I’m sure the home team will be very fired up, but on paper this isn’t remotely close. I’ll trust the strength and weakness matchups therefore, and I’ll give the points with New Mexico State.
Steve Janus
Mid Tennessee St vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt -3
Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (VANDERBILT) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games. This system is 33-9 (79%) against the spread since 1992.
Jeff Alexander
Cincinnati/Purdue Under 59
This line has already dropped from 62 down to 59, so if you are going to bet it, do so quickly. It's dropping for a reason. Cincinnati is known as a great offensive team, as they have finished each of the last 5 seasons averaging over 32 ppg. They aren't the same offensive team in 2016, as they don't have the experience or talent at wide receiver to run their pass-happy attack. The Bearcats lost their top 6 pass catchers from 2015. Head coach Tommy Tuberville has came out and said they are going to run a more possession based attack this year. The offense certainly didn't look great in the opener, as they only scored 28 points against Tennessee-Martin. That's the same Tennessee-Martin team that gave up 76 to Ole Miss and 63 to Arkansas last year and 59 to Kentucky and 45 to Mississippi State the year before. I don't think it was just a bad game for the Cincinnati offense in the opener. The defense is improved and while Purdue scored 45 in their opener, they are not going to be a great offensive team. I think this is going to be a defensive battle that comes no where close to the 60 points needed for this to go over the total.
Scott Spreitzer
Central Michigan vs. Oklahoma St
Play: Central Michigan +20
One thing we like when a big underdog is facing an opponent is if that dog has confidence it can hang for four quarters. Central Michigan certainly has that after taking Oklahoma State to the brink last season. CMU was roughly a 23-point dog, yet trailed 17-13 with 10 minutes left in the game. OSU added one more TD to win 24-13, but CMU easily covered the big number. Central Michigan owns an outstanding offense with great skill players, despite losing their top receiver. QB Cooper Rush leads the way, an arm we'll be seeing one day on NFL Sundays. The Chips will face an Oklahoma State defense that has allowed a ton of points over the last couple of seasons, including allowing 27 or more points on eight occasions last season. We don't expect a big turnaround in 2016. I do expect Oklahoma State to score their share of points, but also expect the Chips to score quite a few, hanging this big number. The MAC entry covered nine of 12 regular season games last year, including a 3-0 ATS mark as a road dog.