Jack Jones
Tulsa vs. Ohio State
Play: Tulsa +28½
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have the firepower to make this one interesting. Former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery has this program headed in the right direction. The Golden Hurricane went 6-7 last season and made a bowl game, only narrowly losing to Virginia Tech 52-55 as 14-point dogs in Frank Beamer’s final game.
Now Montgomery has 14 starters back this season in Year 2 of his systems. The key is having seven starters back on offense from a team that put up 37.2 points and 507 yards per game last year.
The Golden Hurricane are off to a rousing start offensively in 2016 as they racked up 512 total yards in their 45-10 victory over San Jose State as only 4-point favorites. Returning starter Dane Evans threw for 198 yards and a touchdown, while they racked up 305 rushing yards on 5.3 per carry to do most of their damage on the ground. Evans threw for 4,332 yards with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions last year.
I was equally impressed with the effort defensively, which was the Achilles’ heel of this team the past few years. The Golden Hurricane limited the Spartans to just 10 points, 287 total yards and 13 first downs. This defense should be better with seven starters and six of the top eight tacklers back.
Ohio State comes in overvalued due to having just put up 77 points in its romp of Bowling Green. But that was a Bowling Green team that lost a lot of talent from last year, and more importantly, head coach Dino Babers. I wouldn’t look too much into it.
This is one of the youngest teams in the country as the Buckeyes returned just six starters this season and lost more talent than anyone to the NFL. I don’t believe this young team will have the focus it takes to put Tulsa away by more than four touchdowns, especially considering they’ll be looking ahead to their game at Oklahoma next week.
Speaking of Oklahoma, Tulsa proved it could play with the big boys last year. It only lost 38-52 at Oklahoma as 30-point underdogs to easily cover the spread. The Golden Hurricane racked up 603 total yards on offense against what was a very good Sooners’ defense.
Plays against home favorites (OHIO ST) – after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (TULSA) – after outgaining opponent by 225 or more total yards in their previous game, with an experienced QB returning as starter are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
The Golden Hurricane are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Tulsa is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game.
Joseph D'Amico
Idaho vs. Washington
Play: Washington -37
Washington has soared up the rankings, after their, 48-13 dismantling over a talented and experienced, Rutgers squad LW. QB, Jake Browning will light up and Idaho "D" that allowed 44 or more points, 8 times LY. This PAC 12 defense will prey upon the weaker Sun Belt offense, in what will be a lopsided mismatch. Idaho, QB, Matt Lineham completed only 8 passes (8 for 22) against Montana State in Week 1. I know this doesn't have a bearing on ATS situations but I wanted to give all of you some perspective here...The Huskies are 35-2-2 SU in this series, with those 2 losses coming in 1900 and 1905. With Portland State on deck, I look for HC, Chris Peterson to further hone his teams skills before Conference play begins. Washington is famous for beating up non-Conf foes, going 5-0 ATS their L5 non-Conference games.
Dave Price
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
Play: Virginia Tech +11½
The Key: Justin Fuente is a great hire for the Virginia Tech Hokies to take over for Frank Beamer. Fortunately for him, he was able to convince long-time defensive coordinator Bud Foster to stick around. The Hokies have 15 starters back this year and one of the best defenses in the ACC. They held Liberty to just 160 total yards in their 36-13 win last week. Tennessee should have lost to Appalachian State last week, but survived 20-13 in OT after the Mountaineers missed an extra point and a field goal, and after the Vols fumbled in OT, but luckily recovered it in the end zone. The Vols are way over-hyped early in the season, and that's reflected in this line once again as they are double-digit favorites when they shouldn't be. Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games vs. ACC opponents.
Chip Chirimbes
Washington St vs. Boise St
Play: Washington St +11
In each of the past five seasons Mike Leach's club has opened with a loss and most recently to non-BCS teams as in Portland State last week and Eastern Washington last year. In each instance he won game 2 and last year went 9-1 ATS going 5-0 ATS as a road underdog. This game of course will drive any 'normal' person crazy because of the blue turf these play on in Boise. Cougars had a decent lead and then fell asleep. This week the are awake the whole game.
Ross Benjamin
Cincinnati @ Purdue
Play: Purdue +5.5
Purdue is coming off an impressive 45-21 season opening win over Eastern Kentucky. Despite opening with a 28-7 win against Tennessee-Martin last week, Cincinnati turned in a less than inspiring performance, and it was a game that was much closer than the final score may indicate.
Any non-conference home underdog of 3.5 to 10.0, coming off a non-conference win in which they scored 22 points or more, versus an opponent that’s playing its second game of the year, resulted in those home underdogs going 42-11 ATS (79.2%) since 1983.
NC State @ East Carolina
Play: East Carolina +5.5
East Carolina is coming off a decisive 52-7 win over West Carolina in last week’s season opener. NC State opened the season with a 48-14 win against William and Mary.
Any non-conference home underdog of 9.0 or less (East Carolina), playing in games 2 through 7, coming off a non-conference win by 15 points or more, they scored 28 points or more during that previous game, versus an opponent (NC State) coming off a win by 16 points or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 35-9 ATS (79.5%) since 1992. The underdogs also won 24 of those 44 games outright.
Jimmy Moore
Rice +8.5
Army favored by more than a TD - really??? They are 4-18 ATS as favorites of more tha a TD and they are 4-14 ATS I games off a SU win. Rice lost last week and they have covered 6 years in a row in the game following their first SU loss of the season. This line is an over-reaction to Rice losing big last week and Army winning. No way the Cadets should be this big of a favorite here. Take Rice and the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Iowa State vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa St +16
The Cyclones have a new head coach in Matt Campbell and he went 10-3 ATS as a road dog at Toledo. His Iowa State team got caught looking ahead last week as the Cyclones were already thinking about their hated rival, the Hawkeyes, as Iowa State turned the ball over 4 times and lost to Northern Iowa. Look for the Cyclones to fare much better this week as they are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games in this series with Iowa. Overall, Iowa State has covered 13 of the last 18 meetings between these rivals and last year's game was closer than the final scored would indicate as the game was tied at 17-17 late in the game before the Hawkeyes pulled away with two late TDs. Iowa is off of a win last week but they were outgained by Miami, Ohio and the Redhawks actually had a 25 to 17 first down edge as well. The points are simply too much in a rivalry game like this and there is renewed optimism on the Cyclones with most of the starters back on defense and with a new head coach who had a 35-15 record coming into the season. Campbell brings a new attitude to this team and the rivalry is renewed with a much closer game than many are expecting here.
John Ryan
Rice vs. Army
Play: Rice +9
Technical Discussion Points: Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-21 mark good for 56% winners and has made 62 units/unit wagered using the money line since 2010. Play on a road team using the money line (RICE) and is a struggling passing defense from last season allowed 8.5 or more passing yards/attempt in non-conference games. This system has averaged an incredible 305 DOG play making it one of the best in our vast database. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Army is an imperfect 0-5 against the money line (-12.9 Units) when they allow 100 to 150 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points: Another game with disparaging results from week 1 as the Rice owls come into this game after getting beat by a very good Western Kentucky team and Army coming off a big upset of Temple. Rice returns 16 starters and 52 lettermen from last year’s team which beat Army 38-31 and come into this game as the dog. The Black Knights return 16 starters from last years which competed well but could not win the close ones. We look for a tight game in this one most of the way and look to take the points.
Brandon Lee
Blue Jays -131
Toronto is worth a look here at home in game 2 of their AL East showdown against the Red Sox. Boston won the opener of the series 7-2 behind another strong outing from Porcello. This time it's the Blue Jays who have the edge on the mound, as they send out J.A. Happ against Eduardo Rodriguez. Happ is 17-4 with a 3.34 ERA in 27 starts and has owned Boston each of the last two times he's faced them. Both times allowing just 1 run over 7 innings of work. Rodriguez is just 2-6 with a 4.86 ERA in 15 starts and has a ugly 8.26 ERA in 3 career starts against the Blue Jays.
Chase Diamond
UNLV +26½
This late night winner has the 1-0 UNLV versus the 0-1 UCLA. UCLA comes off a tough loss to Texas A&M last week in overtime. I see big wind out of their sails tonight and Don't expect them to really go for the throat tonight. UNLV can put up points they put up 63 last week granted it was against Jackson State but still UNLV can move the ball. I don't expect Starks to play for UCLA tonight and their QB has been a turnover machine lately throwing 7 interceptions in his first 11 games. Take UNLV plus the points as I see them keep this within 3 touchdowns all night long.
Brandon Shively
Central Florida vs. Michigan
Pick: Over
UCF is a team that is going to cover spreads this season and will fly under-the-radar for a while. I’m just not sure if I want to pull the trigger with them here in this high noon start at the Big House. What I do want to do is pull the trigger on the ‘OVER’ here. I will keep the analysis simple here...UCF new HC Scott Frost was the OC at Oregon when the Ducks were quacking and running up the score. He runs fast tempo and UCF is going to score here. It might not be a lot, but all we need is 13-17 points and Michigan will take care of the rest. Michigan comes into this game on a 9-0 OVER run dating back to last season and Harbaugh will want to get the most out of his new QB as this is another warm up game before conference play starts. With UCF rather inexperienced and the Wolverines will control the line of scrimmage. Im looking for a final score in the 45-17 range as UCF will score in some garbage time in the 4th quarter.
Carmine Bianco
Napoli at PALERMO
Play: Napoli
The loss of Higuian to Juventus hasn't affected the scoring and attack for Napoli and with a trio of forwards to go to so far they've put up 6 in 2 games. Expecting a quick start from them today against one of the bottom half teams in my opinion. Napoli is the play on Saturday.
David Banks
Washington St @ Boise St
Pick: Boise St. -11
Like they did a year ago, the Cougars dropped a season-opener to an FCS program. This time around, it was FCS power Eastern Washington that beat Washington State. The Cougars allowed EWU quarterback Gabe Gubrud to complete 34-of-40 passes for 474 yards and five touchdowns. Washington State gave up 606 total yards and now must face a very good FBS program in Boise State on Saturday night. How will the Cougars fare against Broncos QB Brett Rypien and Boise offense that put up 45 points and 584 total yards against Louisiana Lafayette in Week 1?
Rypien went 22-for-33 for 347 yards and two touchdowns as Boise State moved out to a 35-0 second quarter lead in Week 1. Running back Jeremy McNichols ran for two touchdowns and caught a 48-yard TD pass from Rypien. Wide receiver Thomas Sperbeck hauled in six passes for 130 yards and a score. The Cougars will have their hands full trying to slow down the Broncos on their home field.
For Washington State head coach Mike Leach, the Cougars will regroup and depend heavily upon their Air Raid offense and one of the nation’s best QB-WR duos in the nation. Quarterback Luke Falk passed for 418 yards and four touchdowns in the loss to Eastern Washington. Wide receiver Gabe Marks caught 10 of Falk’s passes for 108 yards and two scores. The Cougars will throw the ball all over the field, but their success may likely come down to whether or not they can run the football. Running back Gerald Wicks ran 10 times for 52 yards last week and he may have to do more against a very good Broncos defense.
The Cougars need to experience some success. After facing Idaho next week, Washington State begins play in the Pac-12 with back-to-back games against No. 24 Oregon and No. 7 Stanford.
Harry Bondi
NORTHERN ILLINOIS +15.5 over South Florida
Classic case of the markets overreacting to one loss. Last week, Northern Illinois was a 7-point favorite at Wyoming where they lost outright in OT. Now, one week later they are catching more than two TDs against South Florida? It’s a huge overlay and we’ll gladly take advantage. Even with last week’s loss, the Huskies have historically been a great bet on the road, going a profitable 10-4 ATS the last three years and 65-40 ATS in their last 105 games away from home. They have been equally as good as an underdog, covering six of the last 10 when catching points and 61% of all games as an underdog since 1992. The Bulls simply can’t be trusted in the role of double-digit favorite.
Bob Balfe
UConn +4
Navy comes into today with 4 returning total starts on the offensive line which is good for the least amount in all of College Football. This team also took a QB from out of the stands last week because Smith went down for the year. In this triple option system you need an experienced signal caller and you need a solid offensive line that is experienced or you are going to get turnovers and penalties. This is a rebuilding year for Navy as they lost one if not the best triple option quarterbacks ever in Keenan Reynolds to graduation. UConn is always a good defensive team and has the coaching personal and talent to stop the triple option. On offense the Huskies return most of their starters from last year so I expect them to score today against smaller Navy Defenders.