Nelly
Akron + over Wisconsin
The hype surrounding last week's opener at Lambeau Field was consuming for the Badgers and it will be tough to match that energy even for the home opener. The Badgers played great but still nearly gave the game away and it will be a difficult follow-up week. Wisconsin blasted Miami from the MAC in the home opener last season but the Zips were a bowl winner last year and a team that beat current Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst's Pittsburgh team in 2014. Akron did what it needed to do last week to beat VMI with Thomas Woodson throwing six touchdown passes. The big win for the Badgers hid shaky quarterback play behind Bart Houston and the Wisconsin secondary will be tested this week with a much different offense in what was likely a distraction filled week. Paul Chryst is just 6-8 ATS the past two seasons as a home favorite and Akron averaged over 28 pass attempts per game last season and had 38 attempts last week with Wisconsin going 1-2 ATS vs. teams that had more than 18 completions against them last season. Akron had three S/U wins as an underdog last season and the Zips will be up for this opportunity against a potentially flat squad that is greatly over ranked at #10.
Red Dog Sports
Norfolk State at Richmond
Play: Norfolk State +34.5
Richmond off a big win vs. Virginia. Both teams are located in Virginia. The Spiders may have a letdown after being the Cavaliers as +11 underdogs. NSU Spartans should be motivated playing in the state capitol vs. a solid team.
Scott Delaney
Remember last week, when I delivered Wisconsin in its outright win? This week I look to nail another college football freebie for you, as I like Kansas laying a small number against Ohio.
Kansas is coming off a blowout of Rhode Island, the Jayhawks' first victory in more than a year, and will carry that momentum into today's clash with the Bobcats.
Ohio, meanwhile, is trying to bounce back from a heartbreaking triple-overtime loss to Texas State. The 'Cats could still be hungover from that setback, and may not be ready for a Big 12 team looking to parlay their first win in 16 games, into a second straight victory.
Running back A.J. Oullette is expected to miss today's game with a foot injury, and that's not good for the Bobcats, who wound up giving four different running backs at least eight carries apiece in their loss to Texas State.
I'll lay my money on the Jayhawks, who had 399 yards passing, including touchdown throws from three different quarterbacks, and 171 yards rushing against Rhode Island.
Take the home chalk, and lay the cheap number.
1* KANSAS
Chris Jordan
I hit both of my free plays last week, as I told you Georgia and Michigan would be easy complimentary winners. Today I want you playing Purdue over Cincinnati, as I like the home pup in this one.
I was impressed by the Boilermakers' balancing act, as we saw nine different receivers catch passes last week, when Purdue had a near-perfect 50-50 split between yards rushing and yards passing.
Coach Darrell Hazell said that will be his key to a successful season, in being able to spread it around, throw the ball and churn out plenty of yards. The test is whether or not his Boilers can do so against a stronger opponent.
Last week it was Eastern Kentucky. Tonight it's Cincinnati.
Of course, the Bearcats have to step up in class as well, after playing UT-Martin last week, and now stepping up to take on a Big 10 entry.
Cincinnati hasn't won at a Big Ten school since 1959, when they won at Indiana. Since then, the Bearcats are 0-11. Heck, I'm just looking to cover the touchdown, but an outright win would be nice.
Take the road points.
2* PURDUE
Brad Wilton
College football plays get more "weight" in my book if one team is in revenge, or if one team is looking ahead to a bigger game on the horizon, and that is exactly what you have here in West Lafayette on Saturday afternoon.
Darrell Hazell's first season with Purdue was 2013, and his first game saw the Boilermakers go to Cincinnati and get run over by a 42-7 count! There is your "revenge" angle, as Darrell Hazell is one the definite "hot seat" as head coach of this Purdue team that simply has not gotten the results in his 3 years at the helm.
Your "look ahead" angle? Well, that would be the fact the Bearcats have a Thursday night home game looming with mighty Houston this upcoming week!
It is the perfect storm for an upset if you ask me.
Cincy went just 1-2 as a road favorite last year, and they did look all that impressive in week one, scoring just 28 points at home (and not covering) versus Tennessee Martin. Cincy's defense didn't fare much better, giving up 330 yards to the FCS basement dwellers.
They better get well in a hurry because Purdue's RB Markell Jones rushed for 145 yards, finishing strong with a lot of those yards coming in the 4th quarter.
The Boilermakers defense played well too with a couple of early interceptions as Purdue opened with a 45-24 win over Eastern Kentucky.
Hazell's seat maybe gets a little less hot with an upset win here.
The elements are right, now we just need the Boilers to Boiler Up!
3* PURDUE
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is Wyoming plus the points at Nebraska.
Nebraska did notch a 43-10 opening week home win over Fresno State to get Mike Riley's second season off with a win and more importantly a cover! Last season, the Cornhuskers could only must one cover in 4 tries when favored in Lincoln.
With a game at home against Oregon on the horizon, look for the Huskers to get by today, but not by enough to cover this large number against the ascending Cowboys of Wyoming.
Third year coach Craig Bohl has taken his winning ways from his days at North Dakota State and has built a team that appears ready to make a little noise this season. The Cowboys did cover 4 of 6 last season as the away underdog, and they got their new season off on the right foot with an upset home win over a capable Northern Illinois team, 40-34 as the touchdown home dog.
Keep in mind Bohl used to be the defensive coordinator at Nebraska, and he did graduate from Nebraska as well.
With Wyoming sporting 7 covers under Bohl in 11 games as the double-digit underdog, this game shapes up to be a lot closer than the linesmakers expect.
Due note this game will kick-off at noon eastern in a time change, and while Wyoming may not spread the outright upset, Bohl's team will be there with the points against a Huskers team that is looking ahead to the Ducks coming to town next weekend.
Take the points.
2* WYOMING
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Yankees with Tanaka over the Rays with Archer.
Who would have thought it, but the Yankees are now just one game out of securing a Wild Card spot as we head into the last few weeks of the season.
The Yanks have won 6 in a row, and they have also won 12 of their last 16 games overall. A big part of their surge has been Masahiro Tanaka who takes a 5 game winning streak to the bump in the Bronx today.
Tanaka is now 12-4 on the season, and has not taken a loss since August 2nd!
His counterpart Chris Archer is enduring a miserable season record-wise despite leading the league in strikeouts. Archer is just 8-17 on the year, and he is on an 0-4 slide against the Yankees in his last 6 starts against New York.
The Rays have lost 5 of their last 6 games, and I can't see them slowing down this Yankees team that is on a mission to make the playoffs.
4* N.Y. YANKEES
SPORTS WAGERS
W. Kentucky +28 over ALABAMA
After rolling USC 52-6, it would be expected for the #1 team in the country to be offering even greater exaggerated and inflated numbers. Markets on Alabama could be likened to that of a balloon, as they will continue to expand until they pop. Alabama enters as a defending national champion playing host to a mid-major opponent in what many will quickly judge as a tune-up game. However, the competitor entering Bryant-Denny Stadium is no ordinary mid-major cupcake but a team with a reputation for piecing together prolific campaigns in its own right.
The Hilltoppers erased doubt with a mighty stroke in Week 1 after they walloped Rice 46-14 at home after many suspected WKU of likely encountering troubles offensively, tasked with having to replace former quarterback Brandon Doughty who catalyzed the WKU offense to unprecedented levels. Also note that the ‘Toppers could have easily been focused on this game last week, which makes that blowout of Rice even more impressive. In addition, the Hilltoppers were also tasked with replacing 10 starters on defense but it was no problem, as they held a formidable Rice rushing attack to just 105 yards and 14 points.
While Western Kentucky will certainly have their hands filled with Alabama, this team will not enter Tuscaloosa with any fear. Western Kentucky opened up their 2015-16 season on the road at Vanderbilt, a weaker SEC opponent but nonetheless a SEC opponent and came away with a win. Western Kentucky knows they can play with the big boys. They’ve visited LSU and put up 20 points on their repudiated defense and they also took Indiana to the wire in Bloomington. While this may be a scheduled loss to almost all, Western Kentucky will look at this fixture as an opportunity to show how competitive they can be against the most revered team in all the land. 28 points is plenty of breathing room for us to work with when we are backing a team that scored 44.2 points per game in 2015.
This is very simply a good spot to play against the Tide after the market watched them undress the Trojans. On deck for Alabama is #19 Ole Miss, a team that has defeated Alabama two straight years. One has to believe that Alabama’s entire roster has that game circled on its calendars. Furthermore, Alabama doesn't cover these huge numbers against non-Power 5 opponents. In its past nine games versus non-Power 5 FBS opponents, Alabama has covered only one. Spotting inflated points in a bad situational spot cannot be recommended here.
PITT -4 over Penn State
The Nittany Lions and Panthers will renew a defunct Keystone State rivalry that has not been played out in over 15 years. The Panthers will play host to the contest at Heinz Field, a venue where Pitt has ensnared visitors of all varieties. Pitt has been a perpetual thorn in the side of many teams that come to town, even if the opposition gets away with a win. Look no further than North Carolina and Notre Dame who had to battle Pittsburgh into the fourth quarter last year before they could secure a victory. Pittsburgh also authored an impressive upset of Louisville, where the Panthers controlled the flow of the game and won 45-34 despite much of the public enamored with the Cards. Generally, Pittsburgh is a football team that keeps a low profile and thus only a small population of passionate fans are likely to have any form of affinity for them. On the contrary, Penn State is one of the most recognized programs in all of college football.
Nevertheless, the Panthers have a battering ram at tailback in James Conner. Echoing Panther fashion, the 6’2, 235-pound bull quietly rushed for 1,765 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2015 despite the achievements being extraordinarily boisterous. Conner once again has taken the reigns of the Panthers rushing attack and it is likely that he’ll be the prime weapon deployed against Penn State on Saturday. Connor found pay dirt twice in Week 1 in the Panthers 28-7 victory over Villanova.
Penn State came into its opening match-up with Kent State as an 18 point favorite and closed as a 22½-point favorite but failed to cover, winning by just two points. Penn State is 1-3 in their last four road games and they have struggled mightily against any football team that enjoys running the football. Look no further than three recent opponents that fancy themselves run-first teams, Ohio State, Michigan State and Georgia. The Nittany Lions are 0-3 against that sample and have surrendered 24 points or more in each of those three contests. Pittsburgh employs a similar style of play and they get Penn State out of Happy Valley. Do not be shocked if the Lions get pounced on.
Arkansas St +20 over AUBURN
Once again we are employing the approach of fading reactions. Arkansas State was absolutely torched by the visiting Toledo Rockets on their own field last Saturday 31-10. Conversely, Auburn lost but did so with style as they appeared to take #2 Clemson to the wire in a defensive struggle, losing 19-13 at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Although Auburn may have in fact lost the game, the result was nonetheless attention gathering. However, what may not have been disclosed from first glance of the score was the fact that the Tigers were never really competitive in the game from the second half onward as Clemson controlled the game, building a lead of thirteen points before surrendering a late score generating the backdoor cover.
While Arkansas State may have laid a huge egg, it was to be expected given the fact Toledo has dominated the Red Wolves in the two outings leading up to their Week 1 encounter. Players on Auburn may take for granted that Arkansas State fell to a team that won 10 games in 2015, ignoring the fact this same Toledo team that was responsible for the Ark State defeat, also knocked off Auburn’s fellow SEC divisional constituent Arkansas at home as well last year. In light of this, Arkansas State is a team that managed to win nine games in 2015, while Auburn finished just 7-6. The set-up for this game has the feel of when the Tigers played host to Jacksonville State on The Plains just a year ago where they were spotting an abundance of points and then required overtime to escape the Gamecocks.
Auburn is often an overvalued team, especially when they are at home. Previous to their result against Clemson on Saturday, the Tigers have covered just once in their last five home games and this cover was by incremental margins when they lost to Mississippi 27-19 on Halloween of 2015. Only half a point separates the Tigers from failing to cover in their previous five home outings. We can’t write off Arkansas State with one abysmal result in Week 1 but that’s precisely what ths market is doing. After all, this is the same team that started 1-3 in 2015 and then went on a tear to win eight in a row in route to their qualification to the New Orleans Bowl. The Tigers do not score enough points to warrant giving away nearly three TD’s. Arkansas State can keep this one scary close.
UTEP +30 over TEXAS
In terms of situational plays, it really doesn’t get better than this one. Prior to last week, Texas Coach, Charlie Strong was on the hot seat. The Longhorns came into the season unranked and under pressure with an opening prime time game on Sunday night against the Fighting Irish. In double OT in front of a packed house and millions watching on TV, the ‘Horns emerged victorious. Now the Longhorns go from being an unranked squad to being ranked #11 in the country. As a result of its Week 1 upset over Notre Dame and subsequently being ranked, the Longhorns are spotting incredibly inflated points here.
As for UTEP, all they did last week was finish with one more yard of offense than Texas and it did it without the benefit of multiple overtimes. The Miners beat New Mexico State 38-22 while going 11 for 17 on third down. It was a balanced effort, but the guy to watch is running back Aaron Jones. He ran 31 times for 249 yards and two touchdowns, including a 75-yarder in the fourth that put the game out of reach. The Miners figure to run the ball often again to limit the Longhorns possessions and they could have success doing so. Lost in the ‘Horns victory is the fact they gave up 44 points and nearly 500 yards of offense to the Irish. The win over Notre Dame and the manner in which it happened put the Longhorns in the national spotlight, this time for reasons other than Strong's job status. That is the worst time to buy.
Ohio +111 over KANSAS
The Jayhawks were pitiful last season, as they failed to win a game under rookie head coach David Beaty so he had to make sure they got a W to start the season. He did just that when he scheduled a game against poor Rhode Island. Beaty got his first win, as the Jayhawks easy covered a four touchdown spread with a 55-6 win against an overmatched foe. Just to give you an idea of how bad it was, Rhode Island was only able to gain 49 yards through the air and they turned the ball over three times while Kansas poured it on with 343 yards passing and five TDs split between two QBs. In a hilarious post game comment Beaty said, “Obviously, there is some momentum coming in off that.” If he thinks squashing a bottom tier Division I school to start the season is going to erase an 0-15 campaign and turn things around, he's sorely mistaken. Still 55 points is enough to get the market interested and it prompts us to play the fade.
Ohio’s stock is way down this week after it lost as a 17-point choice in triple overtime, 56-54 to Texas State. It was one of the bigger upsets of the day but it was overshadowed by the much higher profile losses by ranked schools. Bobcats coach, Frank Solich is taking a ton of heat for a defensive unit that gave up 440 yards and five touchdowns. The Bobcats didn't help themselves either by committing 13 penalties for 109 yards on a weekend it was clear the officials were told to sit on their whistles. A loss like that combined with the Jayhawks big win tends to attract attention on the wrong side. Anyone that took Ohio last week is surely not anxious to get behind them this week but we love that Ohio goes from a 17-point favorite to an underdog this week. Had the ‘Cats defeated Texas State by 21 or more, they would be close to a double-digit favorite here.
Ohio is a well-coached squad from the always under-appreciated and undervalued MAC Conference. These MAC teams like Ball State, Central Michigan, Akron and others always compete under the radar. Ohio is without question the superior team here taking back a price and that is precisely how we’ll play it.
Bruce Marshall
Virginia Tech +11.5
Potential false alarm on Tennessee? Maybe so after 20-13 OT win over Appalachian State),. Now Vols face VPI and sage defensive coordinator Bud Foster, and Hokies now hinting at real upside under 1st-year HC Justin Fuente, who was 4-0-1 as a dog the last 2 years at Memphis. Watch VPI's touted juco QB Jerod Evans run the Fuente offense, which is far more created by recent versions in the Frank Beamer regime. No home edge to unique and huge Bristol Speedway venue, with schools about equidistant.
3G-SPORTS
Arkansas vs. TCU
Play: TCU -7
Kenny Hill has the innate ability to throw some well laced darts at his WRs when rolling out. Hill is smart and can look downfield, and keep the DBs off the guys he wants to get the ball to. The Jr. QB threw for 439 last week, I fully expect the same super productivity this week. Since last week - Arkansas hasn't quite kept the pace of the game in their hands. That on its own doesn't look good. Until they clean that up, they will struggle in Texas - TCU can shut down the plodding offense of the Razorbacks in a quick play or 2 - and 4.3 YDs/ play wont be enough to make it not take effect. Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. TCU wins this one big!
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +136 over TORONTO
Almost every year in MLB there is a team that chokes down the stretch and this year’s Blue Jays were ripe for that. Toronto rode a wave of extreme fortune to the top of the AL East with a couple of overachieving starters and a batting lineup that relies heavily on bombs. In fact, going into last night’s opener, the Blue Jays were 8-33 in games they failed to hit a home-run in. The Jays wake up this morning two games behind Boston in the AL East and just a game up in the Wild Card race. Toronto has lost four in a row and seven of nine. In five of their last six wins, Toronto has rallied late in the game after trailing by two runs or more in the seventh inning or later in all five. We could easily be talking about a Jays’ team with 14 losses in 15 games.
J.A. Happ being sensational for a couple months at a time is nothing new. Happ was sensational for the Pirates for three months last year. We can go over his entire eight-year career and point to spurts almost every year in which he is full of gems. However, with Happ there is also a regression period every year too. At the end of the day, Happ has a career xERA of 4.37. He’s an average pitcher at best. In 198 career starts, only 85 have been of the quality variety. This season, Happ has been in the Cy Young discussion because of his 17-4 record and 3.34 ERA. So there's a thing called "recency bias" that makes us think the most recent events will continue into the future. There's also a thing called "a career of mediocrity" that we trust we’ll see from Happ the rest of the way because his skills are exactly that, mediocre.
Former top prospect Eduardo Rodriguez finished the 2015 season with a bang, throwing four consecutive dominant starts with a 2.22 ERA in September. But a dislocated kneecap kept him on the shelf until late May and then he was quickly demoted to the minors after posting an 8.59 ERA in six starts. Since finding his footing down at triple-A Pawtucket, Rodriguez has a 2.73 ERA in nine big league starts. His swinging strike rate is healthy enough to support an 8.0+ K’s/9 and his control sub-indicators point towards decent levels too. After being torched by the long-ball in the first half, Rodriguez has improved in the second half and managed to keep the ball in the yard at a rate more congruent with his work in the minors. Armed with a mid-90s heater and a highly-regarded change-up (18% swing and miss rate; 51% grounders), Rodriguez employs two plus pitches. This 23-year-old lefty is still a work in progress, but has the tools to become a top of the rotation starter. He’ll now face a Jays’ squad that is swinging at everything and that will undoubtedly be gripping their bats a little tighter here. The Red Sox are loose and offer up all the value here with a better tagn 50% chance of winning.
Cincinnati +143 over PITTSBURGH
A first round pick from 2011, Robert Stephenson is a power pitcher with two potential double-plus offerings. His two-seam fastball exhibits heavy sink and moderate arm side run, though he struggles to keep it down in the zone. His fastball is potent at 93-96 mph, but he gets hit up in the zone when the pitch flattens out. His curveball took a step forward in 2016, adding more crispness and bite. It now is a legitimate strikeout pitch with true 12-6 break. Stephenson’s change-up has improved, but is still a distant third offering. The key for him will be the development of his command and control. He is inconsistent with his delivery and can get into ruts of wildness. If it all comes together, he has top-of-the-rotation potential and could become a star. In his last start, Stephenson went five full and struck out nine batters. He’s only pitched 17 innings at this level but he’s a pitcher with huge upside that is worth gambling on here.
Meanwhile, the Pirates have two wins in their last 11 games. They have scored three runs or less in six straight and frankly, they are playing like a squad just playing out the string. That Jays castoff Drew Hutchison is favored in this range today is nuts as far as we’re concerned. The Pirates received Hutchison in the Francisco Liriano deal. With the Pirates' Triple-A affiliate, Hutchison went 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 36 innings. He struck out 28 and walked 15. Hutchison is not ready yet to benefit from working with Pirates pitching coach, Ray Searage. He’s absolutely worthy of keeping an eye on next season because of his electric arm and because he’s been filthy against righties in the past. As of now, Hutchison is working in fear with his confidence shot and cannot be favored in this range pitching for a team that is just going through the motions.
Brad Powers
Nevada +28.5
The Fighting Irish could be dealing with a bit of a hangover after last Sunday's 50-47 loss to Texas in double-overtime. We thank you Brian Kelly for playing QB Malik Zaire for 4 series that resulted in zero points. Had Kelly played DeShone Kizer for the entire game, we may not have cashed our 2-star on the Horns (+3.5).
However, Kelly's biggest mistake was retaining DC VanGorder as the Irish defense continues to let the offense down in big game after big game. On the other side, the Wolf Pack are also off an OT game, but unlike ND pulled out the win 30-27 (-22) over Cal Poly. The Wolf Pack did allow 383 yards rushing but Cal Poly runs the option and led the FCS in rushing last year.
ND has traditionally been a poor home favorite (19-29-3 ATS last 10 years) due to their popularity while Nevada is on a 7-1 ATS run as an away dog. ND does have a home night game vs Michigan St on deck and for the 2nd week in a row, we're fading the Fighting Irish!
The Real Animal
Cincinnati / Purdue Over 58.5
The Purdue/Eastern Kentucky game last week featured 83 plays for both teams and ended with 69 points. Cincinnati has averaged 32 points or more five straight seasons. But last year the Bearcat defense allowed 31.2 points per game. That was their highest in over a decade. Purdue was horrible defensively last year yielding 36.5 per game, the fourth consecutive year the Bearcats allowed 30 or more per contest. Both of these teams like to play fast and based I’m surprised to get a total in the 50’s given the pace Purdue and Eastern Kentucky played at last week. Hayden Moore, with two TD passes and 260 yards last week, should light up the Boilermakers.
Oskeim Sports
BYU +3.5
BYU quarterback Taysom Hill is finally healthy and new offensive coordinator Ty Detmer will undoubtedly utilize Hill's running ability as the senior has rushed for 2,598 yards at 7.3 yards per rush play in his collegiate career. Interestingly, Hill became the first true freshman quarterback to start for BYU since 1988 when Ty Detmer got the nod. The Cougars boast an experienced offensive line with 101 career starts (11th most in FBS) and I rate them 0.5 yards per play better than average offensively entering the 2016 campaign.
BYU was 0.5 yards per play better than average defensively last season, and I rate the unit 0.6 yards per play better than average under new defensive coordinator IIaisa Tuiaki. Meanwhile, Utah's attack was not very good last year, averaging 5.1 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yards per play. Utah loses its starting quarterback (Travis Wilson), star running back (Devontae Booker) and its top two wide receivers from last year's team and I rate the Utes' attack 0.2 yards per play worse than averaging entering 2016.
Finally, Utah was the beneficiary of positive variance last season as evidenced by its +13 turnover margin and four net close wins. Utah's always-elite special teams has two new coaches this year and 1st Team All-American punter Tom Hackett departed. Let's also note that Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is a money-burning 8-25 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
My math model favors BYU by one point and the Cougars have legitimate revenge after suffering a 35-28 loss to Utah in last year's Las Vegas Bowl (Utah jumped out to a 35-0 lead!). BYU is 4-1 ATS as an avenging underdog, 4-0 ATS in Game Two of the regular season and 8-0 ATS as a road underdog versus .751 or greater opposition. The Utes are just 1-5 ATS at home versus avenging foes.
Dwayne Bryant
Tulsa at Ohio St
Play: Tulsa +28
We look to the great state of Ohio for today’s free college football play, as the Buckeyes play host to Tulsa. This is Game #333-334 in the rotation. The Buckeyes lost a ton of production from last season’s group. Ohio State lost 78% of its offensive production and 64% of its defensive production from the 2015-16 season. That didn’t slow down the Buckeyes last Saturday, as they steamrolled Bowling Green, 77-10.
Not The Greatest Situational Spot for the Buckeyes
That huge blowout win may very well have the Buckeyes feeling “fat and happy” right now. And today’s opponent doesn’t figure to gain Ohio State’s full interest. But what DOES get Ohio State’s full attention is next Saturday’s enormous showdown with Oklahoma. The Sooners were upset by Houston in their season opener, so they figure to be in a foul mood when the Buckeyes come to town.
It makes perfect sense for Ohio State to be caught looking ahead today against Tulsa. I’m certainly not calling for Tulsa to spring the outright upset, but staying within a four-touchdown point spread is very attainable. Tulsa is quite capable of scoring some points against a young Ohio State defense. I just don’t expect the Buckeyes to be very interested in going full tilt for the entire sixty minutes. Your free college football play for Saturday, September 10th is to grab the points and take Tulsa +28