Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, September 16th, 2017

Jesse Schule

Georgia Tech vs. Central Florida
Play: Georgia Tech -1

The Central Florida Knights are coming off an impressive blowout win over Florida International, but I am not reading too much into that 61-17 victory. After all, Central Florida beat the Panthers last year by a whopping 39 points, but then went on to suffer home losses to Temple, Tulsa and South Florida. I don't see how this team is supposed to compete with a Power 5 program that is on the cusp of the Top 25. Junior quarterback Taquon Marshall looked like a world beater in the season opener versus Tennessee, running for 249 yards and five TDs. In Week 2 he proved he can throw the ball as well, completing 5-of-7 attempts for 112 yards and three TDs in a 31-10 win over Jacksonville State. Georgia Tech has covered the spread in six straight non-conference games, and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.

Executive Sports

UConn vs. Virginia
Play: UConn +9.5

Play Against A home team (VIRGINIA) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning. (43-16, 73% since 1992.)

Edsall is 32-16 ATS in road games after playing a non-conference game in all games he has coached since 1992.

Virginia only rushed for 92 and 55 yards in their first 2 games. UConn had last week off to prepare.

Art Aronson

Clemson vs. Louisville
Play: Louisville +3

While we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which we foresee being decided by whichever team has the ball in its hands last.

Clemson: The Tigers are 2-0 after holding on for a 14-6 home win over No. 13 Auburn on Saturday. Clemson had 11 sacks in the victory, making up for the lack of offense overall. Note that Clemson had a 32:25 to 27:35 disadvantage in time of possession. After one week Clemson ranks 53rd in the country in passing offense with 248.5 YPG. The defense has been amazing, but cleary the unit faces its stiffest test to date.

Louisville: The Cardinals picked up a conference win against UNC in a 47-35 road victory last weekend. Louisville won the yardage battle 705-401. Louisville also controlled the time of possession by a 35:56 to 24:04 margin. After one week the Cards rank tenth in the country in passing with 385.5 YPG. QB Lamar Jackson is 55 of 85 for 771 yards and five TD passes (also leads the team on the ground with 239 yards and three more major scores.)

The bottom line: Clemson has won three straight in the series, including a tight 42-36 decision at home on October 1st last year in the most recent meeting. There’s no question that the “revenge” angle comes into play here. Also note that the the Tigers are in fact just 4-6 ATS in their last ten on the road and only 8-9 ATS in their last 17 against the conference, while Louisville is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog. Posting 11 sacks against Jarrett Stidham is one thing, but clearly Jackson will be the most versatile QB that Clemson sees all year. Consider the revenge-minded CARDINALS in this one.

Freddy Wills

Clemson vs. Louisville
Play: Clemson -3

I like Clemson in this spot even after a big game. I still think this team is playing with a chip on their shoulder as defending champions. They sport the best defense in the country with the best defensive line. Who better to stop Lousiville's Lamar Jackson? I expect Jackson to really struggle in this game, and I expect Clemson's offense to look a lot better than they did against Auburn.

Lousiville's defense has allowed 677 passing yards, 7 TD's and 3 INT's so there are clearly holes that Clemson can take advantage of. Clemson held Auburn to under 200 yards and under 2 yards per play in a very misleading final as they were +167 yards in that game, but only won by 8.

Scott Spreitzer

Northern Illinois vs. Nebraska
Play: Northern Illinois +14

The Huskers hired former UConn HC Bob Diaco as their new Defensive Coordinator in the off-season. Diaco has switched the "Blackshirts" to a base 3-4. General consensus around college football is that it can take half a season, sometimes longer for players to acclimate to the 3-4. We played against Nebraska in week-one, a winning ticket for us on Arkansas State. We passed last week's game, but the defense struggled for the second straight week. The Huskers are allowing 531.5 total yards per game, including 390 yards per game through the air. The defense is getting little pressure on the QB. We expect more of the same this week against a team with a pair of capable RBs, who will force the Huskers to play an honest brand of defense. Jordan Huff and Marcus Jones both ran well last week in a 38-10 win over EIU and QB Daniel Santacaterina should be able to enjoy enough time to go through his progressions. Nebraska's offense is dangerous, but mistake-prone at QB. Tanner Lee threw no less than four INTs in last week's game against a shaky Oregon defense. MAC teams get up for Big-10 teams and NIU is no different, covering 10 of their last 11 against Big-10 opponents. NIU is on an 11-3-1 ATS run on the road, including covering four in a row. I expect NIU to hang the number in Lincoln.

Jason Sharpe

BYU (+15.5) over Wisconsin

There's no doubt that BYU hasn't looked good so far to start this season, but keep in mind they've also played arguably the toughest schedule in CFB this year so far. The Cougars are struggling offensively, but they still have a very solid defensive unit overall. They face a Wisconsin team here who also has trouble scoring points. The Badgers also lost a couple key players over the last few months, and those losses have hurt this team. This Badgers offense has a hard time 'pulling away' from opponents as evidenced again last week when they failed to cover a large number against a feisty Florida Atlantic team. Now the Badgers go on the road here to play what should be a desperate and hungry BYU team who is at home here and who will be fighting hard to keep this one close. Take BYU plus the points in this game.

Strike Point Sports

Oregon (-14) over Wyoming

This Oregon team is flying a bit under the radar. The Ducks were blowing Nebraska out 42-14 in the first half and held on for a seven-point win due to playing conservatively in the second half. That won't happen two weeks in a row. Oregon is too athletic for Wyoming, and it will show on Saturday. Look for the Ducks to open this game up early and not look back. The Oregon Ducks are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 road games while Wyoming is 1-5 ATS in their last six nonconference games. Wyoming hasn't seen a team yet this season with the speed that Oregon possesses. Wyoming has given up 155.5 yards per game on the ground thus far this season, and Oregon will exploit that. Lay the number here as Oregon rolls this nonconference opponent.

Allen Eastman

Western Kentucky (-7) over Louisiana Tech

This game is a rematch of the CUSA title game last year. And just like that one, in which Western Kentucky won 58-44, I like the Hilltoppers to take care of business with another blowout victory. The home team has dominated this series since these two joined CUSA, going 4-0 SU and ATS. Louisiana Tech is 0-5 ATS in its last five games, and this team's defense has been ugly, giving up 81 points in games against Northwestern State and Mississippi State. That Mississippi State game was a big home game against an SEC opponent, and I think Tech will have a letdown here. I don't think that they will be able to slow down this Western Kentucky attack that was frustrated by Illinois on the road last week. WKU quarterback Mike White threw for 4,363 yards last year with 37 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. He has gotten off to a slow start, but I think that he will break out at home. Western Kentucky has gone 5-1 ATS in their last six league games, and the defending conference champions will get off to a strong league start with a blowout win here.

Alan Harris

Edmonton vs. Toronto
Play: Over 52

Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Edmonton Eskimos travel east to take on the Toronto Argonauts at BMO Field in Toronto, ON, Saturday afternoon. The Eskimos have posted a 4-1 record to the over in their last five road games and they have gone an excellent 12-5 to the over in their last seventeen games following an ATS win going back to the 2016 season. They have also gone up and over the number in seven of their last ten games played on a Saturday for whatever reason, and they are 6-2 to the over in their last eight games overall. The Argonauts have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone 10-4-1 ATS in their last fifteen games played in the month of September and they are an impressive 9-1 to the over in their last ten games following a bye week. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone up and over the number in four of their last five head-to-head meetings in Toronto and eight of their last nine overall and that's where we'll have our play as we expect both teams to struggle to get defensive stops on Saturday afternoon in Ontario.

Harry Bondi

NORTHWESTERN (-22) over Bowling Green

Pat Fitzgerald and the Wildcats were embarrassed last week in a stunning 41-17 loss to Duke, so expect a top-notch effort here as they take out their frustrations on a Bowling Green team that is off to an 0-2 start, including a 35-27 setback to South Dakota last week. Last week’s loss gives us some value here as Northwestern will dominate the trenches and run away with a much-needed, easy victory.

KILLER WHALE P.O.D. >>>>>>>>>>>> PENN. ST. - 37

Teddy Covers

Memphis +3

The scoreboard results look decent for UCLA, with a 2-0 mark to open the season. Josh Rosen has put up some huge numbers, throwing for 820 yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions against Texas A&M and Hawaii. And yet, despite those monster stats from Rosen, the Bruins have all the makings of a bet-against team in early start TV action on Saturday.

Let’s start with this: Rosen has zero interceptions only because Texas A&M dropped the ball, with Rosen every bit as lucky as he was good in the Aggies late defensive meltdown. And we need to note the miserable spot here for the Bruins. They’ve got a major revenge matchup with Stanford on deck, coming off a remarkable comeback and an easy blowout. This game reeks of a legitimate flat spot for the road favorite, especially when we consider the noon Eastern Time start – that’s 9 AM on the body clocks for the kids from the West Coast.

There’s another anti-UCLA factor in play here – Jim Mora’s track record in games like this one. The results don’t lie. Dating back to the start of the 2014 season, my numbers show Mora and the Bruins with a grand total of three pointspread covers in their last 13 non-conference affairs, not a team to be laying points with thousands of miles from home with Stanford on deck!

But the biggest factor of all one that makes it very easy to support for Memphis in this ballgame – is the failure of the UCLA defense in early season play. Again, the results don’t lie. In two games, the Bruins have been gashed for 663 yards, allowing a whopping 6.3 yards per carry. Hawaii ran the ball down their collective throats last week: 281 rushing yards at 6.7 yards per carry. That’s a real problem against a team like Memphis!

Make no mistake about it – the Tigers have the skill position talent to trade points with UCLA. Senior QB Riley Ferguson is surrounded by Power 5 Conference depth at WR and RB; an offense loaded with playmakers. Memphis is going to spread the field and push the pace, both problems for the Bruins defense in early season play. And the Tigers are primed to make a statement, at home, on national TV, against a national powerhouse. Riley Ferguson: “I’m ready. I know all of our guys are ready for it. Everybody’s going to be watching. It’s time to go out there and show everybody what we can do.”

Ian Cameron

Tulane at Oklahoma
Play: Tulane +35.5

I cashed a winning free play here in the blog last week on the Tulane Green Wave in their spread covering loss as double-digit underdogs against Navy. I think they are worth another endorsement as they head to Norman to face the Oklahoma Sooners. Tulane has opened the season 1-1 SU but more importantly 2-0 ATS. This is a squad that has taken major strides under the watch of second-year head coach Willie Fritz. The triple option offense has been firmly established and the level of execution, particularly along the offensive line, has gotten better as the Green Wave have averaged 243 ypg on the ground at a 5 ypc. They’ve also found a better quarterback this season with Jonathan Banks who with a 65% completion rate, 3 TDs and no INTs has shown the ability to throw the ball. Unfortunately, Banks was knocked out of the Navy game due to injury but Johnathan Brantley filled in admirably. The potential loss of Banks, while not ideal, shouldn’t have much of an impact in the short term.

Oklahoma obviously isn’t in the best of spots after last week’s monster road win at Ohio State. The Sooners were able to put the clamps on J.T. Barrett and OSU’s struggling offense while Baker Mayfield connected on 27-of-35 passing for 386 yards and 3 TD passes. Everyone by now is well aware of celebration that took place following the win and with their conference opener on deck, it’s very possible we don’t see a fully focused favorite on Saturday. And focused they’ll need to be in order to cover such a large pointspread. I’m sure they spent some time during the summer preparing for the option but a vast majority of the preseason was geared specifically for the Buckeyes and other Big XII foes. Tulane is feisty and proving to no longer be a pushover. They’re just the sort of squad that can quietly slip into Norman, stick around, and leave with an easy pointspread cover.

Wunderdog

LSU @ Mississippi St
Play: Under 53.5

Mississippi State loves to run the football, grinding out yards as the clock moves, but they run into a ferocious LSU defensive line. The LSU Tigers have allowed just 10 points in two victories with junior tailback Derrius Guice off to a sizzling start out of the backfield. LSU's 2016 sack leader Arden Key will play after missing the first two games with a shoulder injury. Key had two sacks against Mississippi State last season as LSU notched a 23-20 win over the Bulldogs. LSU is on a 13-4-2 run UNDER the total with that great defense, including 15-5-1 UNDER in conference play. Seven starters return to a Mississippi State defense that has allowed a total of 21 points in two games. But the offense got shut down in last year's loss to LSU with 214 yards passing and 56 yards rushing on 1.8 yards per carry. Mississippi State is on an 11-5 run UNDER the total after a victory, as well as 11-5 UNDER after getting 40+ points the previous contest. Both teams are undefeated, so look for a monster defensive effort with more field goals than touchdowns.