Cappers Club
Central Michigan vs. Syracuse
Play: Central Michigan +10
Central Michigan takes a trip to Syracuse on Sunday and giving the Chippewas points in this game really gives them a lot of value.
The Chippewas really opened up a lot of eyes last Saturday against the Kansas Jayhawks.
They really played well and not only did they win, but they won big taking the second victory of the season by a final score of 45-27.
The Orange on the other hand come into this game off a really bad loss. The offense and defense both really struggled on the way to a 30-23 defeat at the hands of a Middle Tennessee State.
I think the Chippewas will be able to score at ease in this game, and that will allow them to keep it close.
Jeff Allen
Troy vs. New Mexico State
Play: New Mexico St +7
The New Mexico State coach is fighting for his job and the Aggies have been impressive in losing to Arizona State by six and the beating rival New Mexico, both on the road. NMSU brought in 14 top JUCO players that have paid immediate dividends. This is the Sunbelt opener for both teams and the home opener for the Aggies who are also in a revenge spot against a Troy team a bit down from recent editions. Four returning starters in the secondary should be able to lock up Troy QB Silvers while the Aggies are more than capable of throwing the ball around themselves. Grab the touchdown.
Dennis Macklin
Kent State vs. Marshall
Play: Marshall -14½
Wish there was something positive to say about Kent but there really isn't. HC Paul Haynes is battling health problems but would have been out at the end of this year regardless. The Flashes got their win last week over Howard but have completed just nine passes in two games and will find the going much tougher here. Kent is just plain and simple awful. Marshall is a team that won 33 games before going 3-9 last year. The Herd is 1-1 in their rebuild and are well coached by John "Doc" Holliday. Marshall led NC State by 10 late in the first half before getting run over by a desperate Wolf Pack in the second. Herd offense should be able to do what it wants here. Holliday is a class guy that won't intentionally "put it" to Haynes and the Flashes but 42-10 sounds about right while keeping everyone happy.
Sean Murphy
UCLA vs. Memphis
Play: Over 72½
This is an early start, particularly for UCLA as the Bruins travel from the west coast to face the upstart Memphis Tigers on Saturday. With that being said, I’m not anticipating a sleepy performance from either squad.
UCLA’s offense came to life in the second half of its thrilling opening week victory over Texas A&M and that carried over into last week’s rout of Hawaii. With Memphis dealing with plenty of turnover from a defense that already had a tough time last year, I’m not sure the Tigers will have many answers for QB Josh Rosen and the Bruins prolific offense on Saturday afternoon.
On the flip side, Memphis should be able to do some damage offensively. The Tigers were scheduled to face UCF in Orlando last week but that game was of course postponed due to Hurricane Irma. Memphis will be able to release plenty of pent up energy here, noting that standout QB Riley Ferguson completed just 10-of-25 passes and no touchdowns in an uncharacteristic performance against Louisiana-Monroe two weeks ago. The Tigers still managed to score 37 points despite the off day from Ferguson. Look for him to bounce back against the Bruins here, as this one ultimately turns into a shootout.
Mike Anthony
Clemson vs. Louisville
Play: Clemson -3
This Clemson team has stepped up so big, has played with such heart - led by team sack leading man, DE Austin Bryant - and Clemson is playing as good as anyone in the NCAA right now. I just can't see them losing this one. Either their Oline matchup vs Bryant or DB Ryan Carter vs ultra talented WR Jaylen Smith are both victories on the field ready to take place for Clemson. Too much talent across the team. Louisville needs to try and keep the Clemson defense honest more often, and try to run when Clemson isn't predicting it. Problem is, Louisville has been pretty predictable in their play calling, on many occasions you seem to know what they are doing, and when. Lamar Jackson has to trust his line to get the job done - but doesn't always do that, and gets jumpy in the pocket. Good news for Clemson fans, bad news for Louisville. Facing their front line is bad enough, add in Clemson's Austin Bryant, who has played like a man on a mission this season. Lamar Jackson is an extremely athletic QB - but vs a highly ranked defensive squad like Clemson, Louisville's running QB is not going to be enough. Cardinals are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Clemson wins giving the points behind their defense here on Saturday night!
Joe Everett
Oklahoma St / Pittsburgh Over 63½
There’s no guessing what Oklahoma State is going to do on offense with their dynamic senior duo of Mason Rudolph and James Washington leading the way. Oklahoma State is a high tempo spread attack that operates out of the pistol with a lot of RPOs, zone reads and quick passes with secondaries out of position. The scheme leads to mismatches in the passing game and creates open lanes for running backs like Justice Hill, who has been as electric as Mike Gundy’s mullet to start the season. The Panthers soft defense only returns four starters this year, they gave up 33 points to Penn State and 21 to FCS Youngstown State. They do have all conference defensive back Jordan Whitehead and senior corner Avonte Maddox back but they still don’t have a pass rush. Mason Rudolph will pick them apart with slants, outlet passes and time his shots to Washington to exploit this secondary.
The Oklahoma State defense has been strong to start the year with five sacks , an interception and a defensive touchdown in two games. Linebacker Kenneth Edison-McGruder has been out with injury and Calvin Bundage will now miss the first half of this game as a result of his ejection last week for targeting against South Alabama. Pittsburgh doesn’t have the same personnel and coaching on offense this year with the losses of offensive coordinator Matt Canada (LSU), linemen Dorian Johnson & Adam Bisnowaty as well as quarterback Nathan Peterman. Max Browne has disappointed with a 1-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio but he has completed 64.3% of his passes and is still adjusting to Shawn Watson’s offense. Fortunately running back Qadree Ollison is grinding out yards on the ground at 5.1 yards a clip and they have a deep threat with blazing speed in senior receiver Jester Weah who could find some openings in this game.
The Cowboys offensive machine is going to keep rolling on the road and will likely post their usual 40-plus points but at home in what should be ideal conditions, expect the Panthers offense to pull out all the stops in a game that they’ll have to keep pace in order to stay in contention. These two teams met last year in a 45-38 State win and the line was set high as a direct reflection of that at 63½, which could drop before kickoff. In a game that should end in the 44-31 area, we’ll go with the OVER for a back and forth barn burner here.
Tennessee / Florida Under 49½
The Volunteers have scored 42 points in each of their two games but the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets & Indiana State Sycamores defenses leave a lot to be desired and going up against the Gators’ defense is a completely different story. While the Wolverines were able to post 33 points against Florida in the opener, that one got out of hand when Chauncy Gardner left the game with a leg injury. The sophomore cornerback will return after two weeks off and against a Tennessee offense that doesn’t have much of a passing threat, the clamps will be tight in this rivalry. The Vols have talented players like junior running back John Kelly and sophomore receiver Marquez Callaway, who is a potential all american. The matchup of Gardner on Callaway will be one we might see in the NFL one day.
The two main problems for Florida in this game are that all the players suspended for week one are also suspended for this game, namely Antonio Callaway (no relation to Marquez) remains out and he is far and away the best skill position player on Jim McElwain’s roster. Fun Fact on Callaway: He is the only Florida player in school history to score a rushing, receiving, passing, punt return and kickoff return touchdown in his career. Leading running back Jordan Scarlett is also one of the suspended players, leaving the Gators with just LaMichael Perine to carry the running game.
The other huge issue is that the forecast is calling for thunderstorms during the game and in a damp hot muggy environment, the passing games for both teams will be compromised here and points figure to be hard earned. The total has actually gone up a tad and has hovered around 49 likely due to last year’s 38-28 Gator loss but if this forecast holds true, the number should drop on gameday with clarity on the conditions. While the weather could lead to mistakes handling the ball with potential for defensive scores, both offenses will most likely stick to the running game and attempt to play mistake free football. In what should be a slugfest, I’ll call for a 23-17 final with the Volunteers pulling out a close win in an ugly game.
Kentucky / South Carolina Over 51
South Carolina has talent on offense, namely sophomore quarterback Jake Bentley and the one man wrecking crew that is junior Deebo Samuel who has a rushing touchdown, two receiving scores and two kick return touchdowns to start the season. Bentley is quality athlete but profiles as more of a pocket passer and he has a 4-to-1 TD to INT ratio to start off the season. The Wildcats run a 3-4 scheme that fires through running lanes, tries to stack sides with overloads and takes out the pocket, so the Gamecocks will likely go with a timing passes for the delay draws, screens and quick underneath looks to take advantage of Kentucky’s aggressive style. Denzil Ware is a pass rushing threat and junior linebacker Josh Allen is starting to show flashes with two sacks to start the season but neither player is a consistent threat. Considering how strong Samuel has been and how good Bentley looks, South Carolina is certain to find ways at home to score on a beatable Kentucky secondary.
The Wildcats have one of the best running backs in college football in super sophomore Benny Snell who was a freshman All-American last year and is capable of taking any play the distance for a score. They return a senior behind center in dual threat quarterback Stephen Johnson and have a stud tight end in CJ Conrad. Kentucky returns four starting linemen and will have success against a South Carolina defense that gave up 178 rushing yards to Missouri last week and allowed 500-plus total yards in the North Carolina State game. The Gamecocks only managed one sack last week and if they can’t get pressure on Johnson, it could be a long day for the home team.
The last ten times these teams have played the series has gone 8-2 to the OVER but both of the last two games fell well short of the number with last year’s contest ending 17-10 in a Kentucky win. This year’s game features two different offenses and a much improved quarterback situation for a Gamecocks squad that knows this Wildcat team and will be out to avenge last year’s close decision. This will be a game of returning serve, as these two teams get back to their roots and fire off in a 35-31 shootout in an ideal spot for both quarterbacks to thrive.
Texas / USC Over 67½
The Trojans have elite talent in junior running back Ronald Jones and Sam Darnold is already the top rated prospect on many draft boards going into the 2018 NFL Draft. Darnold is an athletic mobile quarterback that possesses terrific arm strength and throws extremely well on the run. He is a dangerous passer because he keeps his eyes downfield when breaking the pocket and is capable of throwing receivers open when he extends plays. Receivers Deontay Burnett and Steven Mitchell have combined for 394 receiving yards and four touchdowns, while Ronald Jones has already scored five touchdowns with 304 yards from scrimmage. Texas may be coming off of a shutout of San Jose State but their odd front defense gave up 263 yards rushing to the Terrapins in the season opener and this Trojans unorthodox spread offense is a clear step up from Maryland’s attack.
Texas’ starter Shane Buechele has an injured shoulder and his status is unclear but his replacement Sam Ehlinger showed he is more than capable going 15 of 27 for 222 yards through the air and a passing touchdown. Ehlinger is more of a dual threat type of passer, he’s a much better athlete than Buechele and could potentially be a better fit for this offense. He will make the Longhorns running game even more potent, as the backside defender will remain occupied with a legitimate running threat at QB. Texas cranked out 406 rushing yards against the San Jose State last week and considering the success teams like Western Michigan (263 rushing yards) and Stanford (170 rushing yards) were able to have on the ground against USC, Tom Herman’s running game is likely going to thrive on the road. Look for a ton of zone reads and power O plays to maximize their talented offensive line, featuring soon to be 1st round draft pick offensive tackle Connor Williams. Texas has a potentially elite receiver in Collin Johnson who can be a real X-factor in this game with some shots downfield.
The Longhorns have racked up 92 points in just two games but the Trojans have scored 91 in their two games and against better competition than what Texas has seen. This line has been set high but that’s because this game has real “boat race” potential with two strong offenses against defenses that have holes against the run. Texas will have an upset on their minds but on the road against a versatile offense that can score at will, they’ll likely fall just short in a 48-38 thriller at the Coliseum in Los Angeles.
DAVE COKIN
BAYLOR VS. DUKE
PLAY:BAYLOR 14½
Those results will keep the masses as far away from Baylor as they can possibly get. The good news for the Bears is that Zach Smith is moving back under center, replacing Anu Solomon, who is still in concussion protocol. I make this an upgrade for Baylor. Smith got some starts toward the end of last season as a true freshman and I thought he flashed plenty of potential. The sophomore QB was hurt during spring ball and that left him as the QB2 heading into the new season. But former Las Vegas prep star Solomon, while a threat with his legs, was wildly inaccurate throwing the ball in the two losses and I believe the Bears get better with Smith taking the snaps.
Duke is in an interesting schedule spot. Theyre off the win against Northwestern which had to be very satisfying as it was double revenge. Next week the Blue Devils take on arch rival North Carolina in their ACC opener. That makes this a bit of a sandwich game. It might not have looked that way when the game was originally scheduled, but things have obviously changed rather dramatically for Baylor in the interim. Gauging flat spots for any team is always guesswork of sorts, but I can see Duke being a bit fat and happy for this game.
Rob Veno
Central Michigan at Syracuse
Play: Under 68
Opposite results for these teams last week as Central Michigan recorded a solid 45-27 road win over Kansas while Syracuse was outfoxed by ex-DC Scott Shafer in their 30-23 home loss to Middle Tennessee State. The ‘Cuse allowed six sacks and averaged a minuscule 3.3 yards per play on their 93 total plays. They also had their second lowest number of passing yards (182) in a game under Dino Babers. Expect those subpar numbers by Orange standards to get back to normal this week against a defense without the built in personnel & weaknesses knowledge that Shafer had. Defensively they held their own last week for nearly three quarters but a span of 11:52 between late third quarter and mid fourth saw them allow three consecutive touchdown drives. Limiting the potent MTSU offense to 369 total yards for the game looks solid but their second half faltering turned a 7-point lead into a 7-point loss.
Central Michigan took some time to heat up but they demolished Kansas from the late second quarter on scoring five TDs on six possessions. All five drives were 73 yards or more and overall in that 35 point stretch, new QB Shane Morris (Michigan transfer) led the offense to 410 total yards. CMU needed the offensive support because their defense had trouble stopping Kansas in the second half as well. Their stop troops have been ineffective the first couple of weeks allowing 27 points and 431 yards per game.
Syracuse catches a real break here since the Chippewas star WR Corey Willis is now out for four weeks with a fractured hand. Add to that, 3rd leading WR Brandon Childress has been ruled out for the season after injuring his knee last week and suddenly CMU is severely weakened at that position. They may have to lean on their ground game more in this contest but run defense has been Syracuse’s strength thus far (allowing just 74 rypg). Offensively, Syracuse should be able to take advantage Central Michigan’s defense led by dual threat QB Eric Dungey. Not sure why this total continues to go upward but the expectation here is that Central Michigan may try to control tempo here and keep Syracuse possessions down a bit. Current 67.5 number seems a bit high so look here will be toward the under.
Drew Martin
Appalachian State at Texas State
Play: Appalachian State -23
The Texas State Bobcats host the Appalachian State Mountaineers Saturday night in San Marcos, Texas. It's the Sun Belt opener for both squads and a matchup that has a strong potential to be lopsided. Over three touchdowns on the road may seem rich, but when the talent disparity is this wide, this type of margin could be reached rather quickly.
TSU head coach Everett Withers walked into a real tough spot last season and essentially "took a knee" in order to build towards the future. Things were so bad (2-10, -25.4 scoring margin vs. Sun Belt) that this year should also be labeled a "rebuild." In Week 1, TSU outgained FCS bottom feeder Houston Baptist 290-258 in an ugly 20-11 win and backed it up with a 37-3 loss at Colorado.
Appalachian State was outclassed in Week 1 vs. a much improved Georgia squad, 31-10. The Mountaineers however fired back and led Savannah State 45-0 at halftime before taking their foot off the pedal. Last season, APSU went on the road at dispatched UL-Lafayette, Georgia Southern, and New Mexico State by an average margin of 26 ppg. Those three squads combined for 11 Sun Belt wins whereas Texas State finished 0-8. And in last year's meet in Boone, NC, Appalachian State outrushed Texas State 303-14 en route to a 35-10 win.
Superior talent and the ability to dominate the line of scrimmage make this one of the more lopsided matchups you'll see this season in the Sun Belt. Lay the chalk.
Andrew Lange
Wisconsin at BYU
Play: BYU +16.5
It sounds as if BYU quarterback Tanner Mangum won't be able to go this weekend after suffering an ankle injury in last week's loss to rival Utah. That means backup Beau Hoge will likely be under center. Hoge doesn't have much experience though given BYU's offensive struggles and Magnum's total loss of confidence, he could provide a bit of a spark.
The one thing BYU does have in its corner is a stout defense. Some of the numbers don't look overly attractive as LSU ran for 296 yards and Utah averaged nearly six yards per play, but the Tigers boast one of the best run games in the country and the Utes feature a soon-to-be household name in quarterback Tyler Huntley who practically beat the Cougars by himself (227 yards passing, 89 yards rushing). Wisconsin isn't nearly as explosive as those two squads as the Badgers' more traditional style of "run first, play action later" is a favorable match up for BYU's defense.
No offense in the country, outside of maybe Florida, has been more ridiculed thus far than BYU. And every bit of it is justified as offensive coordinator Ty Detmer appears to be completely over his head. But this is a matchup and pointspread range where we don't need "huge strides" from the offense in order to cash a ticket. And value-wise, BYU was catching +15 vs. LSU in New Orleans, +4.5 at home vs. Utah, and now as high as +17 at home vs. Wisconsin. BYU's power rating without question deserves to be downgraded but that's an extreme adjustment and the right opponent for them to grind out a cover.
Dr Bob
Air Force @ Michigan
Air Force (+23 ½) 16 MICHIGAN 35
These teams both play at a slow pace offensively and a game with fewer plays and possessions make it more challenging for a big favorite to cover the spread. Air Force is 6-0 ATS the last 25 years as an underdog of 21 points or more (4-0 under coach Calhoun) and all traditional option teams (Veer, Flexbone, Wishbone, I-bone but not read-option) are 61-36-2 ATS as dogs of 21 points or more since 1980 (including teams that previously ran the traditional option in the seasons in which they ran that offense). Aside from this being a game with significantly fewer plays than normal I think the Air Force option is better than their 1 returning starter would lead most to believe. Under coach Calhoun there is zero correlation to the number of returning starters and the quality of the defense in his 10 prior seasons. My ratings favor Michigan by just 19 points with the pace of the game taken into account.
Clemson @ Louisville
LOUISVILLE (+3) 30 Clemson 28
Clemson’s defense has been absolutely amazing so far this season, allowing an average of 4.5 points and 119 total yards per game at a miniscule 2.1 yards per play, which includes the 1.8 yppl that they yielded to what was supposed to be a good Auburn offense. However, Clemson will be facing a quarterback that transcends special and Lamar Jackson can make things happen even against the most talented defenses that execute well. Clemson defenders can be doing exactly what they’re supposed to be doing, which would lead to success against nearly every other offense, but that still doesn’t mean they’ll be able to keep Jackson from escaping and creating a big play with his arm or his legs. Last season Jackson led Louisville to a 63-20 romp over a very good Florida State defense and he led the Cardinals to 36 points in a 6 point loss to the Clemson team that went on to win the National Championship. Jackson is not immune to great defensive fronts, as he did struggle against both Houston and LSU, but it is safe to say that Louisville is relatively better against good defensive teams because of Jackson’s special talents.
Louisville also has a good defense that will challenge the Tigers and overall my ratings favor Clemson by just 1 point. I’ll actually call for the minor upset due to a 94-32-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation that applies to Louisville.
Tulane @ Oklahoma
OKLAHOMA (-34) 41 Tulane 10
Oklahoma proved that they are an elite team by beating up on Ohio State in Columbus last week but given the excitement of that victory I don’t see how the Sooners’ defensive players will be fully focused on learning how to defend the option attack of Tulane. The option is a great equalizer of talent and option teams tend to be good as big underdogs for that reason. Tulane is in the second season of coach Willie Fritz’ offense and the Green Wave have a pretty decent defense that gave up just 5.4 yards per play last season and held Navy to 23 points last week in a 2-point loss as a double-digit underdog.
If Oklahoma does built a huge lead my guess is that Baker Mayfield will exit the game and they’ll turn to the rushing attack to close things out. The problem is that Oklahoma’s rushing attack doesn’t appear to be as good with Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine now in the NFL. The Sooners have averaged just 4.3 yards per rushing play and gaining only 5.1 yprp against UTEP’s horrible run defense is alarming. Tulane has a solid run defense so I don’t expect Oklahoma to be able to run up the score by simply running the ball. This will also be a shorter game since Oklahoma has slowed their tempo this season and Tulane’s offensive tempo has always been slow. I like Tulane and the under.
Tennessee @ Florida
FLORIDA (-4) 28 Tennessee 21
Florida had an unplanned bye week last week due to hurricane Irma and it gave the players and coaches an extra week to put their opening game debacle against Michigan behind them. Florida’s offense still looks like an issue but Tennessee’s defense doesn’t look particularly good, as I rate that unit at just 0.1 yards per play better than average. I am impressed so far by Vols quarterback Quinten Dormady, who has averaged 7.3 yards per pass play but the Gators’ defense is strong and I project just 5.2 yards per play for Tennessee in this game. Overall my ratings favor Florida by 6 ½ points so I see some value with the Gators.
SMU @ TCU
TCU (-19½) 41 Southern Methodist 20
TCU usually bounces back to have good success after a down season under coach Gary Patterson and this year’s Horned Frogs squad looks good so far, ranking 0.7 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.9 yppl better than average defensively after last week’s good performance in their 28-7 win over Arkansas. SMU has scored an average of 56 points in two games against inferior defensive teams, SF Austin and North Texas, but their yardage numbers aren’t particularly impressive (6.3 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.8 yppl to an average team) and the Mustangs’ defense is worse than average and allowed 6.7 yards per play to a traditionally impotent North Texas offense last week. My preseason ratings would have favored TCU by 21 points and my updated ratings make it 21½ points. Not much value here.
Oregon St. @ Washington St.
WASHINGTON STATE (-21) 44 Oregon State 21
Oregon State has been even worse than I thought they’d be when I played them under 5 wins prior to the season. I suspected that the offense wouldn’t be as good as most people thought it would be but it’s been a pleasant surprise that the Beavers’ defense is even worse than projected so far. Oregon State’s secondary has allowed 65% completions and 9.6 yards per pass play in their three games while allowing 8.0 yppp or more in each game (including against FCS team Portland, who they barely beat). Not being able to defend the pass is usually a problem when facing a team that throws the ball 73% of the time. Washington State quarterback Luke Falk has been upgrade to probable and he should put up huge numbers against the Beavers while a solid Cougars’ stop unit limits the Beavers. Oregon State’s poor start has certainly been reflected in this huge line, but my ratings favor WSU by 23½ points so I’d still lean with the Cougars at -21 or less.
Colorado St. @ Alabama
ALABAMA (-28½) 44 Colorado State 13
Colorado State hasn’t been as good offensively as projected and the Rams managed just 3 points in their only game against a good defense (Colorado). The 58 points that the Rams scored against Oregon State in their opener doesn’t look quite as good now considering how bad the Beavers’ defense has been through 3 games, and Alabama should be able to contain that attack. My preseason ratings would have favored Alabama by 31 points and my updated ratings favor the Tide by 31½ points. Nick Saban likes to beat up on his former assistants so I’m not sure that he’ll call off the dogs with a big lead against Mike Bobo’s Rams.
Texas @ USC
USC (-15½) 42 Texas 24
USC is coming off an impressive 42-24 win over a very good Stanford team and the Trojans actually didn’t play poorly in their closer than expected 48-31 opening day win over Western Michigan. Western Michigan is no slouch and USC averaged 7.9 yards per play and allowed just 5.0 yppl in that game. Last week the edge against Stanford was 8.6 yppl to 6.3 yppl, which is astounding given the level of the Cardinal defense. Texas is a bit of a mystery right now, as the Longhorns gave up 51 points and 8.7 yppl to Maryland in their opener and then pitched a 56-0 shutout against San Jose State last week. I do believe that the Texas defense is good and that the Longhorns’ offense is better than average but my ratings favor USC by 17½ points.
Zack Cimini
Stanford vs. San Diego State
Pick: Stanford -8.5
San Diego State went on the road and pulled off a clear cut decisive victory over Arizona State last week. It’s a clear sign that the Pac-12 is more top heavy than in years past. While Stanford did not pull off the victory against USC, they’ve added new dimensions to their offense that will be key on the road. Look for Stanford’s sheer talent and ability to adjust within the game to neutralize San Diego State’s minimal arsenal.
Larry Ness
Kentucky vs. South Carolina
Pick: South Carolina -6.5
The Kentucky Wildcats and the South Carolina Gamecocks play their respective SEC openers on Saturday in Columbia at Williams-Brice Stadium. Both teams have opened 2-0, with Kentucky winning at Southern Miss 24-17 and then back at home 27-16 over Eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks, coming off a 6-7 season in Will Muschamp's first year at South Carolina (lost an exciting 46-39 bowl game in OT vs USF!), have opened with back-to-back outright wins on the road as underdogs. South Carolina opened with a 35-28 win at NC State (+ 7 1/2 )and then followed with a 31-13 win at Missouri (+ 3).
Kentucky QB Stephen Johnson looked much better in the Wildcats' second game (he had a shaky opening against Southern Miss), throwing for 224 yards on 15 of 22 passing with a touchdown, while also rushing six times for 48 yards and a TD on the ground. RB Benny Snell added 103 rushing yards on 19 carries (one TD) and fellow RB Sihiem King chipped in 61 yards on his nine carries. Kentucky's defense held Eastern Ky to 318 yards of total offense in the win. and enters this game allowing 16.5 PPG on the season (35th) on 341.0 YPG (56th)
However, that Kentucky D will be severely tested Saturday by resurgent South Carolina. The Gamecocks may have lost their bowl game at the end of last year's season but they scored 39 points and gained 481 yards in that defeat. QB Bentley threw for 390 yards and three TDs against USF. He's back this season and while he's thrown for a more modest total of 402 yards after two games, he has four TDs and just one INT in leading his team to back-to-back road wins, while South Carolina has topped 30 points in each contest. South Carolina's star so far has been WR Deebo Samuel. The junior has touched the ball a total of 14 times in two games, resulting in a pair of 97-yard KO returns for TDs, two rushes for 30 yards and a TD plus has 10 receptions for 128 yards and two scores. "He's really good with the ball in his hands and he's also really good when it's not in his hands," head coach Will Muschamp told the media. "He works extremely hard and that's why he has tremendous respect with his teammates." You think?
Defensively, the Gamecocks have given up a lot yardage, as its 927 yards allowed in two games would attest. That's an average of 463.5 YPG, which ranks 108th in the nation. However, South Carolina has only allowed 20.5 PPG, by forcing five turnovers and holding opponents to five scores in eight red zone opportunities. One wonders if South Carolina can continue to give up that many yards without it coming back to 'bite them.'
Kentucky has a well-balanced offense which has yet to explode and it could do just that here, as the Wildcats come in on a three-game winning streak in this series. However, that also gives this rejuvenated South Carolina team a strong revenge motive. Kentucky's defense has so far looked good but let's not forget it allowed 31.3 PPG last season, on about 434 YPG. Also, a closer look reveals that in five road games and its neutral-site bowl contest, the Kentucky D allowed an average of 37.8 PPG. South Carolina comes in averaging 33.0 PPG in 2017 and both games have been on the road. The Gamecocks should easily top 30 points in this one at home and I'm laying the points.
Jim Feist
Iowa State at Akron
Pick: Iowa State
Iowa State is heading in the right direction under Matt Cambpell, 1-1 and nearly beating rival Iowa last week. This offense is outstanding behind QB Park and 5 wide receivers who can all play, anchored by Allen Lazard. They step down in competition to face a MAC school that has little defense, getting waxed by Penn State, 52-0. They also stepped up a year ago to face Wisconsin of the Big 10 and lost 54-10.
LV Traders
New York at Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta
We'll take the better team at home with plus money. The key is getting Jacob de Grom out of the game while we're still in it. de Grom has been rather ordinary of late not throwing more than six innings in his last three starts. Look for Markakis to come up big as he's .350 lifetime against the Mets right-hander.