DAVE COKIN
UTAH STATE AT WAKE FOREST
PLAY: UTAH STATE +11.5
I got a little greedy on this one, and that ended up causing me to miss the right price, and that’s why Utah State is a lean and not a personal play.
The Aggies were catching 13.5 earlier in the week. I could have bought it to +14, but I thought there was a good chance the number would get there without my having to pay the juice. After all, Utah State isn’t exactly perceived as a powerhouse and the Demon Deacons were coming home off an impressive road romp at Boston College.
My strongest asset as an analyst is probably an ability to gauge line movement before it happens, which is why I have a very strong track record of garnering value with my plays. But I got this one wrong and I’m not investing at +11.5 when I could have done a lot better. Chasing sharp steam is not something I do very often.
As for the game itself, Wake is improving under Dave Clawson. The Demon Deacons won a bowl game last season and it looks like they’ll have a good opportunity to see post-season action again this time around. Utah State is not doing well under the guidance of Matt Wells, and I suspect his coaching seat might be getting a bit uncomfortable as the losses mount.
Nevertheless, this number appears steep to me. I made the Wake Forest side roughly -9.5 here and they’re also a program simply not used to spotting big numbers. I think the Aggies should compete here and even at the beat up number, Utah State appears to be the right side to me.
Brandon Lee
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
Play: Giants +133
I'm going to roll the dice here with the Giants as a decently priced division home dog with their ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound. I know it's been an ugly last two starts for Bumgarner, but this is someone who we know has elite stuff and I would be willing to bet he rebounds in a positive way instead of continuing to throw as poorly as he has. Bumgarner does have a strong 2.58 ERA in his career against the Diamondbacks, which covers 28 starts. Arizona's J.D. Martinez was a late scratch in yesterday's game and not having him in the lineup certainly helps the Giants. Dbacks will send out Zack Greinke, who despite a 2.99 ERA in 29 starts overall, has a not so great 4.00 ERA in 12 outings on the road this season.
Scott Rickenbach
UCLA vs. Memphis
Play: UCLA -2½
The overall boxscore from the Bruins win over Hawaii doesn't look as impressive as it should because UCLA took their foot off of the gas. That helps in terms of line value here because the Bruins did actually lead that game by 42 points in the 3rd quarter. They now visit a Memphis team whose schedule has been thrown off because they had a game canceled last week as they were set to face Central Florida but the game was impacted by Hurricane Irma. Though I did like them in that match-up with UCF the fact is they don't match up as well with UCLA and the Bruins should roll here. They've got a top notch QB in Rosen and the Tigers allowed nearly 300 yards passing in the only game they played this season and that was against UL-Monroe in sub-par weather conditions. Look for the Tigers to drop to 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as they again fall short here. The Bruins are on a 5-1 ATS run in their last 6 games played on turf and the Pac-12 team will prove to be too much for the AAC team in this one.
Ray Monohan
Oregon St vs. Washington St
Play: Washington St -21
The Cougars have been solid to start the season off and the Cougars are worth a move laying the points here.
Washington State has been known for their offense over the past few seasons. The up tempo and quick strike team has made them one of the most dangerous in the nation.
Washington State has put an average of 39.0 points per game this season comes in off an overtime thriller against the Broncos. They matchup extremely well here with the Beavers, who are giving up 46.0 points per game. Expect the Cougars to simply pick apart this secondary and take plenty of chances down field.
Some trends to note. Cougars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Cougars are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
This one should get lopsided and ugly early given how weak this Beavers defense is.
Ben Burns
Notre Dame vs. Boston College
Play: Boston College +14
Still stinging from a tough 1-point loss vs. Georgia, it might be easy for the Irish to get caught "looking ahead" on Saturday. They'll be facing a Boston College team which just got hammered (34-10) vs. Wake Forest, one which they've beaten five straight times. Up next for ND is Michigan State. You may recall that the Spartans knocked off the Irish early last season. Both teams came in ranked in the top 15. That loss, which snapped a 3-game winning streak in the series for the Irish, was the start of a downward spin from which Notre Dame never recovered. (The Irish would finish 4-8.)
The Eagles have covered five of six in the series, dating back to 2008. Three of the last five meetings have been decided by four or fewer points. They're under-valued after last week's loss. Playing on ESPN, against Notre, allows a chance for redemption. The Irish are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 as a road favorite in the -10.5 to -14 range. Consider grabbing the points with Boston College.
John Martin
Tennessee vs. Florida
Play: Florida -4
The Florida Gators can't afford to fall to 0-2 here. They'd have a loss against one of the top contenders in the SEC East, which would hurt their chances of winning the division again. I think this is a 'rally the troops' type of game for the Gators. They want to win it for their fans too, who had to deal with Hurricane Irma. And this is a great spot for them coming off a bye last week. Florida is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games off a bye, including a perfect 15-0 ATS when priced from PK to -9.5 in this situation. Tennessee was outgained by Georgia Tech by 286 yards and was extremely fortunate to win that game in OT. Florida has won 11 of its last 12 meetings with Tennessee and will be out for revenge after blowing a 21-3 lead on the road last year.
Vic Duke
Mississippi State +7½
LSU/Miss State 7:00: Bulldogs have covered this series three straight times including last year's 23-20 loss at Baton Rouge. Bulldogs have shown grit early with two solid wins allowing a stingy 2.77 yards per play defensively. Still not overly thrilled about the LSU offense which ravaged two inferior opponents. LSU has a bruising smash mouth game but Miss State defense won't be pushed around like BYU's was. On the other hand, Miss State offense with emerging QB star Fitzgerald and RB Aeris Williams have a quality offensive line to play behind to move the football. Miss State a nice 19-7 ATS at home vs a team with a winning road record. And let's not forget Orgeron's poor 2-18 SU mark vs SEC foes. Miss State the call.
Dave Price
Baylor vs. Duke
Play:Baylor +15
What would this line have been before the season? My guess would be Baylor -10 or more. But after the Bears lost two home games to Liberty and UTSA, they are now 14.5-point dogs at Duke. Meanwhile, Duke just blew the doors off Northwestern 41-17 last week. So everyone is high on the Blue Devils now all of a sudden. I think Baylor still has the superior talent in this one, and the Blue Devils are going to struggle dealing with their speed. I'm glad Matt Rhule has made the switch from Anu Solomon to Zach Smith at quarterback to give this Baylor offense a breathe of fresh air. Smith played made four starts as a true freshman last year, so he'll be able to handle the spotlight. Rhule is 21-7 ATS as a dog as a head coach.
Dave Cokin
Baylor +14.5
You’d be hard pressed to find two teams that have gotten off to more polar opposite starts than Baylor and Duke. The Bears limp into Durham 0-2 with losses to Liberty and UTSA, not exactly a pair of top tier opponents. Duke is an impressive 2-0. The opening win over NC Central is meaningless, but the Blue Devils were phenomenal last week in demolishing Northwestern.
Those results will keep the masses as far away from Baylor as they can possibly get. The good news for the Bears is that Zach Smith is moving back under center, replacing Anu Solomon, who is still in concussion protocol. I make this an upgrade for Baylor. Smith got some starts toward the end of last season as a true freshman and I thought he flashed plenty of potential. The sophomore QB was hurt during spring ball and that left him as the QB2 heading into the new season. But former Las Vegas prep star Solomon, while a threat with his legs, was wildly inaccurate throwing the ball in the two losses and I believe the Bears get better with Smith taking the snaps.
Smith isn’t the only new starter for Baylor this week. Head coach Matt Rhule really shook up the depth chart this week, and there will be nine new starters for the Duke game. I have no problem with that as he’s trying to light a fire under his team. I also like the fact the Bears are getting out of Waco, where the football atmosphere is pretty toxic right now.
Duke is in an interesting schedule spot. They’re off the win against Northwestern which had to be very satisfying as it was double revenge. Next week the Blue Devils take on arch rival North Carolina in their ACC opener. That makes this a bit of a sandwich game. It might not have looked that way when the game was originally scheduled, but things have obviously changed rather dramatically for Baylor in the interim. Gauging flat spots for any team is always guesswork of sorts, but I can see Duke being a bit fat and happy for this game.
One of the tenets I’ve followed for what amounts to forever is to not overreact to one or two results. It’s entirely possible that Duke is a Top 25 team and that Baylor is heading toward a disastrous campaign. But while I’ve absolutely adjusted my power ratings for each of these teams, I haven’t done so to the point where I can justify the line being this high. I’ve certainly got Duke as the clear chalk here, but not by this many points. Value for me on the Baylor side, so I’m taking more than two TD’s with the Bears.
Joey Juice
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish head to Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts where they will be hosted by the Boston College Eagles. The Fighting Irish are hungry for a big win as they are looking to forget last week's heart breaking 20-19 home loss to Georgia.
A look inside the numbers reveal that Notre Dame tends to stay on a roll when they're defense is rolling. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after their defense allows less than 170 yards passing in the previous game.
We also see there is a big advantage in this series to being the road team as the home team is a mere 1-4 against the Las Vegas number in the series.
We already know that Boston College is a terrible home team, 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 home games. And we know that when they get crushed they usually take the following week off as they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Well, the Boston College Eagles were just crushed at home by the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, so my guess is that they will take this week off as always.
I look for Notre Dame to win by 3 TD's.
4* NOTRE DAME
Chris Jordan
My early free winner for Saturday is on Coastal Carolina, as I'm laying the cheap number against UAB in this one.
I told you a couple weeks back I was impressed by this team, as it returns 10 starters to a team that went 10-2 last season. It didn't go to a bowl last season, and won't this season, as it has an opportunity to gain eligibility to go into a bowl starting in 2018.
That doesn't mean we don't get a glimpse of what this team is made of, and the mettle it plays with. I'm telling you right now, the Sun Belt Conference should keep its eyes wide open for these Chanticleers, who have added UCLA and Army to future schedules and have no concern about their jump to the big boy level.
Coastal Carolina went 44-6 in its last 50 games against FCS opponents and was ranked No. 1 in the nation in FCS in two separate seasons. They opened the season with a win at home against UMass, and have had an extra week to prepare for this game.
The Chants offensive line is an annual powerhouse. They gained 321 yards rushing against UMass and have gained at least 200 yards rushing in 12 of their last 13 games, with four of those 300-yard games.
I love senior running back Osharmar Abercrombie, who can have a big game if he gets going today.
On the other side, they force issues with an experienced and talented defensive line, and I detect it will be getting after the Blazers, who were torched by Ball State, 51-31 last week.
Take the road team in this one, and be sure to return at kickoff of this free play, as I'll have another complimentary winner from the late card.
3* COASTAL CAROLINA
Tommy Brunson
Saturday comp play is to lay the lumber with Penn State as they play host to Georgia State.
The Nittany Lions destroyed Akron 52-0 in their first game of the season, and last week they did everything buy cover in revenge at home against Pittsburgh, winning by 19-points as the 3 TD favorite. Look for James Franklin's team to run up the big number once again against a Panthers team that is off to an 0-2 start that has seen them score just 22 total points against the likes of Idaho and Tennessee State!
Georgia State simply will lose touch as this game progresses, and with Penn State starting conference play next weekend in Iowa, they will want to run up a big number in this game for sure. Remember this, the Lions had roared to 10 straight covers prior to dropped last week's contest at the ticket window against the Pitt Panthers. No letdown against this week's Panthers, and with Georgia State's lack of offense, there will be no "back door" left open by the home team.
Rout City in Happy Valley tonight.
Penn State 56-3.
4* PENN STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Purdue Boilermakers plus the points at Missouri.
Purdue posted a near-upset win over ranked Louisville in their opening game, as they easily covered plus the double-digits, and then ran over MAC rep Ohio U in their next game last Friday night. Now they head to Columbia to face a Mizzou team that was able to name it against Missouri State in their opener - 72 points! - but came crashing back to earth with their loss to South Carolina last week at home, 31-13.
The Tigers also allowed 43-points the week before against Missouri State, and they will be breaking in a new defensive coordinator for this week's game against the potent Purdue offense.
Jeff Brohm at the helm for the Boilers certainly has the Purdue fans feeling good about where this program is headed, and getting points today is too good an offer to pass on.
Another week, another Boilermakers cover. As they say in West Lafayette, "Boiler Up!"
Take Purdue plus the points.
5* PURDUE
Tommy Brunson
Wrong team favored in this SEC/Pac 12 first ever meeting between Ole Miss and the Cal Golden Bears on Saturday night in Berkeley.
Both the Rebels and the Golden Bears are off to 2-0 starts, but I am questioning the Rebs wins over South Alabama and Tennessee Martin. Yes, QB Shea Patterson has looked good, but how hard is it to look good against the likes of South Alabama and Tennessee Martin?
Cal went into Chapel Hill on the first weekend of the season, and posted the outright 35-30 win over North Carolina, and while the Tar Heels are in a down mode this season, that was the type of game - east coast time zone, long road trip - that Cal usually loses. They didn't that day, and they followed that win up with a "foot off the gas pedal" win at home over Weber State last weekend, so Coach Wilcox' team should be rested and ready to go in this late-night showdown.
Ole Miss playing at 10:30 pm eastern at night in Berkeley, laying a few points on the road? Bad mix! The Rebels are just 1-8 against the spread dating back to last season, dropping both this year and 4 in a row overall.
I like the points, but make no mistake, this is a game the Golden Bears can and will win outright.
Pac 12 to take down the SEC on Saturday night in California.
3* CALIFORNIA
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Saturday night is California plus the points against Mississippi. Yup, I'm drinking the Kool Aid, as the home underdog Bears are going to challenge their SEC foe.
The Rebels arrive in Berkeley with a 2-0 mark thanks to their quarterback sensation Shea Patterson. And while I think this could be an offense that will be dangerous for some SEC defensive units, I think they could be looking past the Bears.
With road games at Alabama and Auburn on deck, reality is staring directly at Ole Miss. And it better not even think about forgetting what Cal is capable of.
The Bears shocked North Carolina to start the season, and yes they needed a late rally to avoid an upset at home to Weber State. So they fell flat a bit. They're still 2-0 under new head coach Justin Wilcox, and an attractive bowl bid could be in order if Cal can get by Ole Miss.
I'm playing the home pup.
4* CAL