Rob Vinciletti
Oklahoma State vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh +12
The Panthers are taking nearly 2 touchdown here and we note they have covered 9 of 10 with non conference revenge which they have from last seasons close loss to Oklahoma St. They are 6-0 ats with revenge vs a team off a win and cover. The Cowboys have won and covered the first 2 games but may be looking ahead to a big one next week with TCU. Pittsburgh has covered 8 of 9 as a home dog of 12 or more. For our system we are playing against game 3 road favorites at -10 or more that won and covered the first 2 games as they have failed to cover 17 of 21 times long term. Look for the panthers to get the cover.
Brandon Shively
Kent State vs. Marshall
Pick: Marshall -14.5
The Marshall Thundering Herd welcome in MAC opponent Kent State Saturday night.
Kent State is just not a good team. They had ONE pass yard in the season opener against Clemson and while they did knock off Howard last week, things were about as difficult as they could come. Kent State actually found themselves down late in the 2nd half.
Marshall's offense has junior QB Chase Litton leading the charge. Litton has the experience to lead an explosive offense and we some signs of that in the first half of last weeks game against NC State. They should be able to find a lot of gaps in this Kent State secondary, opening up the big play over the top.
Oskeim Sports
Memphis +3.5
UCLA arrives in town with undefeated but a cursory review of the Bruins' defensive numbers raise more than a few red flags. UCLA is allowing 33.5 points per game and 493 total yards per game at 5.7 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yards per play to a mediocre offense.
The most alarming aspect of UCLA's stop unit is its run defense, which is allowing 331 rushing yards per game at 6.3 yards per rush attempt to teams that would combine to average just 5.4 yards per rush play. The Bruins gave up 291 rushing yards to Hawaii last week and were outgained overall
The Bruins gave up 291 rushing yards at 7.1 yards per rush attempt to Hawaii last week and were outgained overall 515-505. In its season-opener, UCLA yielded 422 yards at 7.4 yards per rush attempt against Texas A&M.
Memphis takes the field with a potent ground attack that garnered 319 rushing yards at 8.2 yards per rush attempt in its season-opener against a vastly improved Louisiana Monroe squad. The Tigers have had two weeks to game plan for UCLA due to Hurricane Irma and should be fired up for their home opener against a Pac-12 foe.
The circumstances strongly favor Memphis, who had its Week Two game against Central Florida was canceled due to the storm that caused destruction and devastation in the Virgin Islands, Florida and elsewhere. In contrast, UCLA is traveling for the first time this season and
In contrast, UCLA is traveling for the first time this season and will be playing its third consecutive game. A secondary issue is the fact that Saturday's game is scheduled to kick-off at 12 p.m. eastern time, which is 9 a.m. for the Bruins (Pacific Time).
UCLA also has its Pac-12 Conference opener against Stanford on deck, which is significant in that the Bruins are 0-6 ATS as road favorites before clashing with the Cardinal. Let's also note that UCLA is 0-6 ATS off back-to-back wins under head coach Jim Mora, provided its last win was by less than 42 points.
The Bruins are a money-burning 1-6 ATS in their last seven games off a win, 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference affairs, 1-9 ATS in their last ten contests after covering the Vegas number and 0-7 ATS in their last seven affairs following a win by 20+ points.
Meanwhile, Memphis is a profitable 4-0 ATS following a bye week, 16-6 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record and 8-3-1 ATS in its last twelve September games. An upset would not surprise me based on the fact that the Tigers are 16-4 SU in their last 20 home games.
Finally, Memphis is 15-6 ATS as a home underdog versus teams off consecutive wins, including 15-3 ATS when getting at least 3 points from the oddsmakers and 6-0 ATS versus non-conference opposition.
Carmine Bianco
Malaga vs. Atletico Madrid
Play: Atletico Madrid -1.8
Saturday's Free Play is on Atletico Madrid. Depending on your book you'll find a line from -1.5 to -2 and either is fine in this spot. Malaga as I expected are off to a terrible start this season and looking ahead at their schedule they'll need to find spots to pick up points and then make some moves during the January transfer window otherwise they are destined for Liga 2 next season. They likely won't find any points on Saturday against a Atletico side that played to a scoreless draw midweek in Rome but looked the better of the two. They'll be home on Saturday and facing a side with some serious defensive issues.
Buster Sports
Kansas State at Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt +3.5
We will be taking the points with Vanderbilt today as we see this being a very close hard-fought battle in Nashville. Both clubs come into today’s game with 2-0 records. Senior quarterback Jesse Ertz has thrown for over 500 yards and four TDs and he has looked great early in the CFB season. We believe things won’t be as easy for Ertz today in Nashville, as the Commodores defence has a look of a top 10 defence this year. Junior QB Kyle Shurmur is back for Vanderbilt this year and the offense already looks much better than the 110th Total offensive team from last year. These clubs will both learn a ton about who they are today. Backing our selection is the fact that Kansas St. are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win and the fact that the Commodores are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. At the time of this writing we are getting 3 1/2 points and we will be happy to take them especially with such a live home dog as Vanderbilt.
ASA
Notre Dame at Boston College
Play: Boston College
This game has historically meant much more to BC than it has to ND and it’s led to a 6-1 ATS run by the Eagles. Our analytics on this game have Notre Dame a -7.5-point favorite here but a public team like the Irish have been over-adjusted by the oddsmakers. To prove our point, Notre Dame is on a 5-9 ATS losing streak dating back to last season. After a convincing win over a bad Temple team the Irish were beaten at home by Georgia last week 20-19 but were outrushed in that contest by 130 yards. Boston College started the season off with a win over Northern Illinois but were beaten by 24-points by Wake Forest last weekend. The WF loss was somewhat deceiving though as the Eagles were only outgained by just 4-yards, but turned the ball over 4 times to the Demons 0. BC was 22nd in defensive efficiency ratings last year and return a ton of talent from last year’s roster that allowed just 5.0 yards per play against a tough schedule. Irish QB Brandon Wimbush will be making his first road start and is coming off a less than stellar showing against the Bulldogs. Wimbush was just 19 of 39 passing with 211 yards last Saturday. Boston College doesn’t have a high powered offense by any means but they’ll score enough here to get a cover! Grab the generous points.
Jack Brayman
My free play for tonight is on the Oregon Ducks, laying the points in Laramie, to the Wyoming Cowboys.
The Ducks bring their balanced offensive attack to Laramie, and I don't think the Cowboys will have enough to stop it, nor do I believe heralded quarterback Josh Allen will be able to keep his team up with Oregon.
The Ducks have a strong defensive presence, and could force Allen into some turnovers. Oregon has a knack for disrupting offenses and causing miscues.
On the other side, running back Royce Freeman will have a field day, and could very well run for more than 200 yards.
Play the Ducks.
5* OREGON
Jeff Alexander
UL-Lafayette vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M -23½
Ragin' Cajuns have allowed 48 points (514 yds) to Southeastern Louisiana and 66 points (667 yds) to Tulsa in a 24 pt loss. I know the Aggies sucked it up last week in a 24-14 win at home over Nicholls. Not a huge surprise to see them struggle given that they were coming off that crushing loss to UCLA the week before, where they blew a 44-10 lead in the 2nd half. I expect a more focused Texas A&M squad and based off what we have seen from Lafayette, the Aggies should put up 50+ and that should be enough to cash both the side and total of this contest.
Andy Iskoe
Mississippi St +7.5
Although LSU has had the better program for many seasons this has been a very competitive series in recent years. Although LSU is 9-1 SU over the past decade MSU has covered 3 in a row, losing by 2 and 3points the past 2 seasons after finally defeating LSU in 2014 as 7 point road dogs. 6 of the 7 previous losses were by double digits including 4 by 20 points or more. Since arriving at MSU in 2009 coach Dan Mullen has upgraded all aspects of the program. The Bulldogs have been to 7 straight Bowls (5-2 SU) and has narrowed the talent gap between these programs. Long time LSU coach Les Miles is gone with former Old Miss coach Ed Orgeron taking over, going 6-2 on an interim basis last season. He is still putting his imprint on the program and LSU is still expected to be a leading challenger to Alabama in the SEC West. But don’t sell the Bulldogs short. MSU has found stability with Mullen and this game is annually more important to MSU than to LSU. Finally the Bulldogs have shown they can compete on even footing. The generous points are worth taking
SPORTS WAGERS
FLORIDA -4 over Tennessee
Football can serve as a great distraction for many with all of life’s uncertainties. The impacts of Hurricane Irma are still being felt all across the Sunshine State. The Gators will now cherish the opportunity to take their supporters’ minds off of recent events. The Orange and Blue were reluctant to cancel their home tune-up game against Northern Colorado, as they were ready to play the contest in a vacant Ben-Hill Griffin Stadium to retain some form of normalcy in such overwhelming circumstances. Safety concerns would curtail the meeting between the two, but now Florida has an opportunity to take on an influential role in the recovery efforts. Since Irma, this is the first game back for the Gators and they get the chance to avenge a bitter defeat against a hated foe at The Swamp. A win against the Tennessee Volunteers would uplift the region in a big way.
Last year, Florida travelled to Rocky Top to square off with this nemesis the and they would relinquish a 21-point lead to Smokey, also surrendering supremacy in a one-sided rivalry series that saw their 11-game winning streak come to an end. The Gators have had a lot of off-field troubles in the build-up to their opening contest against Michigan in the Cowboys Classic, a contest widely-broadcasted across America. As a result of 10 suspensions, the Gators would ultimately fall to the Maize and Blue by a score of 33-17. Florida held a lead against Michigan after the first half in what was the most watched game in Week 1 but truth be told, the Gators were badly outplayed and were completely dominated in the second half. That weak showing in which Florida’s offense scored just three points the entire game has the Gators being sold short here.
The Volunteers were also in the spotlight in Week 1 but their performance left a much more positive dent in the market than Florida’s performance. On Labor Day night two weeks ago in the Chic-Fil-A Classic in prime time, Smokey would make a 14-point comeback in the fourth quarter to defeat Georgia Tech in double overtime. Tennessee passed a preliminary eye test while the Gators have failed miserably. Tennessee would subsequently win a glorified practice last week against Indiana State, 42-7 to run its record to 2-0 while the Gators come in 0-1. Furthermore, Tennessee is now ranked higher (#23) in the polls than Florida (#25), which also influences both the market and the price.
In summarizing, Florida was ranked #17 coming into the season while the Vols were unranked. It is essentially one result from each side that has the market twisted around to the Vols side. Putting too much emphasis on one game or one result is a big market flaw that we can hopefully exploit here. Home field advantage will be at an optimum here for the Gators and so will the emotions being felt throughout the entire state. For the Gators and the good people in the state of Florida, this is much more than a football game. This game represents hope and we absolutely expect the short-priced favorite to respond here.
Louisiana Tech +200 over W. KENTUCKY
Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky have quite the budding rivalry. The two sides have split the previous four meetings, in which two of these four contests were settled by a field goal. Both teams are known for prolific offensive production. Most notably, the Hilltoppers have been responsible for putting together one of the most potent offensive attacks in all of America. Such accolades have afforded WKU to win back-to-back Conference-USA Champions. However, WKU looks to have a taken a huge step backwards in the post-Jeff Brohm era. The Hilltoppers owned the best scoring offense in America in 2016 when they averaged an insane 45.5 points per game. This year, Western Kentucky ranks among the worst in the scoring department, as they average just 19 points per game (109th nationally). After being held to just a touchdown in Champaign last week against the Illinois Fighting Illini, it is painfully clear that regression has hit. Previously, the Hilltoppers failed to cover a 37.5-point line in their home opener against Eastern Kentucky. The Hilltoppers’ last win against the Bulldogs was by two touchdowns in the Conference-USA Championship game in 2016. That victory combined with their recent pedigree has WKU overpriced here in a big way.
As a whole, the books have seemed to have caught up to both WKU and L.A. Tech. Both teams are a combined 0-7 ATS in their previous seven games. However, Tech is getting much less market credit be it that they were thrashed by the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Ruston, last week. Louisiana Tech’s often-suspect defense surrendered 57 points to the ‘Dogs.
Seemingly, Western Kentucky is set up to revive its offensive operations but we urge you not to jump the gun here. The Hilltoppers have an almost non-existent rushing attack. WKU has accumulated just 104 rushing yards in their opening two games and have not eclipsed the 400-yard mark in total offense yet this season. This is a team that averaged 523 yards per game in 2016. Eastern Kentucky nor Illinois, WKU’s first two opponents, are not renowned defensive teams. Both EKU and Illinois also had more first downs than Western Kentucky. All of these statistics and bullet-points feed perfectly into Louisiana Tech’s hands. Be that the Hilltoppers are a one-trick pony at this point, Louisiana Tech can take full advantage. In addition, Tech has not taken a step back offensively, as they average 36.5 points per game. In the end, WKU is the team that should not be trusted spotting points to this breed of a football team. As a 7-point favorite, Western Kentucky had trouble scoring a touchdown against Illinois but what sticks out most is that this host has had a horrible response to a new coaching staff and at the collegiate level, coaching takes on a massive role in outcomes.
TEXAS TECH -7 over Arizona St
It’s not easy to make a case for spotting points with a Texas Tech squad after they ranked so poorly last year in so many defensive categories. the Red Raiders ranked dead last nationally in both scoring defense (43.7 points allowed per game) and total defense (554.3 total yards allowed per game), and ranked 126th in yards allowed per play (7.05). Furthermore, Tech went into Tempe last season and lost 55-43 in what was one of the wildest games of the year.
Tech is 1-0 this year after defeating FCS foe, Eastern Washington, 56-10 but the market will give them no credit for that win and neither will we. That win was on Sept 2 so the Red Raiders had two weeks to prepare for this one and we trust them to be ready. Tech’s new starting quarterback Nic Shimonek was the star of the show against EWU. In his first career start, Shimonek completed his first 14 pass attempts and finished 26-for-30 with 384 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Although it was his first start, Shimonek is a senior that has thrown 9 TD’s against just one pick over his career. That’s the skinny on the Red Raiders, a team that has very little market appeal so it’s rather curious that they’re spotting a converted TD to an explosive offense that hung 55 on them last year. Even more interesting is this game opened at 7½, so the odds makers hung a hook on there too. Why? It’s because the odds makers know how bad this edition of ASU is and so do we.
The San Diego State team that the Sun Devils just faced last week is not as strong as its two 11-win predecessors. SDSU’s offensive line is rebuilding, and the team is counting on 12 freshmen to contribute right now. But the Aztecs still physically dominated an Arizona State squad with an identity crisis. The Sun Devils barely got by New Mexico State in Week 1 and then were beaten in all three phases of the game by the Aztecs. San Diego State held a 279-44 edge on the ground (and held the Sun Devils to 1.4 yards per carry). The Sun Devils want to be a play-action offense, but they can't run the ball effectively enough. Offensive line play has been the issue in this program for several seasons now, and the continued poor blocking is exacerbated by the fact that the offense is dealing with a third coordinator in three years. And the worst news for Arizona State is that for all the troubles on offense and defense, the special teams might be the worst of the three. The number says Tech wins going away and we’re on board for that.
Idaho +20½ over WESTERN MICHIGAN
We vehemently stress the importance of focusing on reactions and prejudices and adjusting stratagem accordingly. Idaho is a team that is not very well known. In 2016, the Vandals did something unheard of since they rejoined the FBS. They won nine games and captured their third bowl victory in school history. Previously, Idaho had won the same quantity of games combined over the span of five seasons. From 2012 to 2014, the Vandals would be robbed, as they would win only one game each in each of those three seasons. However, most of this probably fell on deaf ears. In the Potato State, there is a much-more well-known and highly-regarded team. That team is Boise State.
When compared to the Broncos who play on the infamous blue turf, Idaho is regarded as the runt of the litter with respect to historical anecdotes. Given the fact the Vandals haven’t had a chance to play against their cross-state rivals for the Governor’s Cup since 2010, the Vandals have not had an opportunity to change their intrastate status. Boise State made mincemeat out of a much weaker Idaho team in the aforementioned contest. After getting their doors blown off by UNLV last week, a team that lost outright as a 45-point favorite in Week 1, the reaction is that Idaho is likely returning back to its old ways and perhaps 2016 was a one-off.
Meanwhile, Western Michigan was one of 2016’s biggest storylines. The other Broncos team from the MAC overshadowed Idaho’s epic Famous Idaho Potato Bowl victory when they ran the table in the regular season and captured a MAC Championship in the process. Under now-Minnesota Head Coach P.J. Fleck, Western Michigan would earn a bid to the Cotton Bowl Classic where the glass slipper would finally shatter against Wisconsin. Though we are three weeks into the new season, the perception of Western Michigan is still shaped by the ripples they made in their previous campaign. The Broncos opened up their 2017 effort in two difficult back-to-back road contests at hyped-up #4 USC and 2015 College Football Playoff qualifier Michigan State. In both games, the Broncos hung tough for three quarters before the hosts pulled away. Thus, this matchup is viewed as a step-back in terms of competitive quality while being at home no less. The Broncos are expected to get off the snide and win big here but we’re not so sure. Without question, coach Paul Petrino has the Vandals headed in the right direction. He also returns most of the personnel that helped the Vandals take that giant leap in 2016. Against an efficient passer such as Matt Linehan complemented by some talented receivers and the duo of rushers that fueled Idaho’s offense last year, there is peril in spotting some serious lumber to such a potent unit.
MIAMI OH -5 over Cincinnati
The number here is speaking to us and we’ve taken notice. Surveying the previous 10 meetings between the Bearcats and Redhawks, Miami has never been favored once. Now the Bearcats are not only the dog, but they’re taking back a rather appealing price considering they’ve been favored over Miami every game for a decade. The Redhawks have not been relevant since 2010 when they won 10 games. Since then, the Redhawks have been courted by mediocrity and even managed to slump to a winless record in 2013. By contrast, the Bearcats have put together four nine-win seasons over the same period. Perhaps most importantly from a betting standpoint, Cinci has won 11 straight in this series, which resonates in this market big time. That’s another useless trend that Cincinnati backers will eat up.
The "Battle for the Victory Bell" between Miami and Cincinnati is the longest-lasting collegiate football rivalry west of the Allegheny Mountains, first being played in 1888. It’s a big deal in this region and for the first time in a long time, Miami is the superior outfit. The RedHawks are 1-1 after losing to Marshall in Week 1 but subsequently defeating Austin Peay 31-10 last week. However, that loss to Marshall is not only misleading, it’s baffling too, as Miami dominated play from start to finish. The RedHawks outgained Marshall 429-267 and also held a big edge in time of possession.
What’s interesting is that Austin Peay also played Cincinnati so we have a common opponent here. At home, Cinci defeated Austin Peay 26-14 but what really sticks out is that the Governors rushed for 224 yards against the Bearcats while the Bearcats rushed for just 97 yards. Cinci did not compensate for that in the passing game either, as they threw for a mere 151 yards. Overall, the Governors would outgain the Bearcats, 313-287 while Miami (Ohio) had a much easier time with the Governors, beating them 31-10 and outgaining them 283-270.
While the Bearcats played Michigan last week and didn’t look awful in a 36-14 loss, Michigan was just coming off a big win over then #17 Florida and looked unfocused and/or disinterested. Still, when it counted most, the Wolverines put the Bearcats away.
The 11-game winning streak by Cincinnati is the longest such streak of this ancient rivalry, which dates back to 1888 but this year, Cinci will bring an offense that looks putrid. The Bearcats’ offense has basically been Mike Boone and a handful of bubble gum wrappers. Meanwhile Bearcats QB Hayden Moore has completed only 47.1 percent of his 68 pass attempts this season while averaging only four adjusted passing yards per attempt. Too many short passes and errant ones further down the field does not bode well here. Every weakness that the Bearcats possess, and there are plenty of them, play into the Redhawks strengths.
Opponents are running over the Bearcats and Miami likes to run. The Redhawks play a methodical game with a heavy emphasis on ball control and taking care of the rock while Cinci’s is searching for an identity with their game plans and play calling looking erratic as hell. What this market sees however, is a team that has dominated this series getting points but we’re strongly suggesting that it’s fool’s gold. Miami is poised to strike big and they know it.
MEMPHIS +120 over UCLA
The stock on the Bruins is soaring after they managed to make an example out of Hawaii when the Rainbow Warriors visited Pasadena last Saturday. UCLA cruised past the Warriors by a score of 56-23 but the game was never close from the get-go. Many questions circulated around whether or not UCLA’s historic comeback against Texas A&M in Week 1 was a fluke. With UCLA having its way, pundits and critics seemed to have been silenced. Now, the Bruins head into what will likely be a shootout against a Memphis team whose stock has gone in the other direction.
Memphis has not played in two weeks due to a postponement in their meeting with Central Florida in Orlando, due to Hurricane Irma. Thus, the Tigers enter off a very suspect win against Louisiana Monroe in their season opener, two weeks ago at the Liberty Bowl. As a 27½-point choice, the Tigers would squeak by the Warhawks by a final score of 37-29. The numbers on both sides of the ball were startling. Highly-touted quarterback Riley Ferguson completed just 40% of his passes for a total of just 97 passing yards. Furthermore, Ferguson failed to toss a touchdown but managed to get picked off once. To further complement the rust that the Tigers had to shake off, the Memphis defense surrendered 425 yards of total offense to a team regarded as one of the most maligned in all of college football. At the end of the day, Memphis looked read bad while UCLA is looking pretty sweet.
This scenario creates a situation we look to identify and locate. Buying low and selling high is a strategy we promote and abide by. With a tremendous amount of confidence vested in the Bruins coupled with a lack of faith in the Tigers, we have an opportunity here. This market could have been shaped entirely differently had the UCF affair not be interrupted due to the onslaught of Irma. Heading into the re-scheduled contest, the Golden Knights were a savory selection by many as a home favorite. Had Memphis pulled off an upset, the discussion around this week’s game may have been entirely different. The Tigers would have been classed once again as a team prognosticated to be a dark horse to win the American Athletic Conference thanks to a huge win against an up-and-coming football team. Now, Memphis has the chance to play this role with the Bruins instead. We will attack this market while a poor perception still hovers above the Tigers. This small line is screaming at us that the Tigers will win outright, which is exactly how we’ll play it.
SMU +20½ over TCU
TCU has outscored its first two opponents by a combined 91-7. That came against Jacksonville State (63-0) and Arkansas (28-7). The Mustangs are also 2-0 but they defeated two cupcakes in Stephen F Austin and North Texas and they allowed North Texas to score 32 points in the process. The market is not giving the Ponies any credit for their two wins and we can understand why, as SMU won one game in 2014, two games in 2015 and just five games last year. Aside from that, the Ponies get whacked by the Horned Frogs every season. SMU has lost to TCU by scores of 48-17, 56-0, 56-27 and 33-3 over the past four years respectively so why should this year be any different? Well, SMU is trending the right way and may even have a voice in their conference race this year, thus, we’re very interested to see what kind of showing the Mustangs can make here with third-year coach Chad Morris' best team yet.
TCU's coach, Gary Patterson is already spinning tales about his 2005 loss to SMU, the week after a road win at Oklahoma. He's very conscious of the pitfalls of playing a team that considers his Frogs a rival in a sandwich spot between a big road victory and another high-stakes trip to Stillwater. But can Patterson fully refocus a group of players who have known only blowouts against SMU and are receiving plenty of pats on the back from those outside the building this week? A game effort, at least, from an SMU team on the rise is certain, as not only is the Iron Skillet affair a significant rivalry game from the Ponies' perspective, it's the first non-conference game of the Morris era in which the Ponies enter as both an underdog and with a real belief that they can actually win. Game opened at 18 and has been bet up all week, which is another angle we like to endorse.
MISSISSIPPI ST +7 over LSU
The last three contests between these two were settled by a margin of five points or less and this might just be State’s best team in years. They're also at home. The assessment of this market is simple, LSU would be spotting double-digits at a neutral site and perhaps two touchdowns had it been scheduled in Death Valley. The question is whether or not LSU’s offense is good enough to build such a large lead and retain it against a foe as formidable as the Bulldogs. For many seasons now the judge, jury, and executioner of the Bayou Bengals has been their defense. The praises of the Tiger defense need not be sung anymore, as its reputation speaks for itself. However, LSU’s offensive operations may be a bit exaggerated given who they achieved their proliferated totals against in its first two games. First, BYU was unprepared for the vortex of the Tiger offense, namely Derrius Guice. LSU as a whole rushed for 296 yards and three rushing touchdowns en route to their 27-0 whitewash of the Cougars. BYU never forced LSU to pass, which has been their Achilles heel of the Tiger attack. Mississippi State knows this and won’t be keen to grant such concessions. The Tigers would follow with a 45-10 thumping of a FCS cupcake when they hosted Chattanooga at home last week.
For Mississippi State, the Bulldogs shut out Charleston Southern in their home opener. Miss State would follow that up with a 57-21 thrashing of Louisiana Tech in a Battle of the Bulldogs in Ruston, Louisiana. The Bulldogs have also shown in their early 2017 resume that they can get it done on both sides of the ball as well. Mississippi State has looked as good as anybody so far against softer competition. Week 1 saw Todd Grantham debut with a defense that held Charleston Southern to two first downs and 33 yards. Then in Week 2 at Louisiana Tech, Grantham unleashed difference-maker Jeffery Simmons, who scored twice from his defensive line spot. Aeris Williams and freshman Kylin Hill are a solid backfield duo to complement star bulldozer Nick Fitzgerald at quarterback. This is a big, physical, balanced, well-coached team that despite a tough road schedule might be capable of challenging the 6-2 SEC record posted by its great 2014 squad. Getting this many points at home with a team this good is the provident play here..
Otto Sports
Ole Miss at California
Play: Under 71.5
California's defense is not going to be fixed overnight. The bad recruiting, bad coaching, and bad habits from the Sonny Dykes era are bound to linger. The good news is through two games, the Golden Bears are nearly a yard per play better than last season. And while last week's win over FCS Weber State doesn't look all that impressive (the Wildcats rolled up 571 yards), I look more to Week 1's results as Cal went on the road and held North Carolina to less than 5 yards per play. The Tar Heels lost a lot of offensive firepower but they also managed to hang 35 points and 6.5 yards per play the following week against Louisville.
Back in 2014 and 2015, Ole Miss' defense was a top-tier unit as it posted season averages of 4.7 and 4.9 yards per allowed, respectively. They took a big step back last year as teams rolled up over 6 yards per play and the Rebels finished a dismal 5-7. This year's unit has been average thus far as South Alabama and UT-Martin were at times able to move the football will relative ease. Defensive coordinator Wesley McGriff stated heading into this game that stopping the run and shoring up the team's lackluster tackling was a priority.
Pace-wise, neither team is playing at breakneck speed and make no mistake, this is a very rich total. Back in Week 1, the betting markets were all over Cal under the total as the game vs. North Carolina was bet down from 66 to 57. Only the earliest of bettors cashed as the Golden Bears won 35-30. However, here we have an opener of 72 that hasn't moved. That's ironically the average total of Cal's 12 games a season ago; a team that played significantly faster and didn't care one bit about playing defense. I see a bit of value on the under in this matchup.
Harry Bondi
PITTSBURGH (+12) over Oklahoma State
Harry Bondi was one of the very few handicappers to pick Oklahoma State to make the NCAA Final Four this season, and so far the Cowboys have more than lived up to those expectations. But this is a very difficult spot for them to go on the road and lay double digits. First off, OSU has a monster game on deck next week at home against TCU and has gone 1-3 ATS the last four seasons the week before facing the Horned Frogs. Secondly, Pitt is a much improved team. Although the final score didn’t indicate it, the Panthers played Penn State dead even last week, limiting the high-flying Nittany Lions offense to 148 yards rushing and 164 yards passing in a 33-14 loss as a 21-point home dog. If it wasn’t for three turnovers, the Panthers could have easily won that game. Simply put, this is an overlay. Look for Pitt to do what it does best and run the ball, control the clock and come in under this inflated number.
The Prez
Tulane at Oklahoma
Play: Tulane +34
The Oklahoma Sooners reportedly had some early week issues focusing on their Week #3 contest against the Tulane Green Wave. Lincoln Riley's squad had an excuse as the troupe was still on a high from their Saturday victory over the then No #2 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes at the "Shoe". To make matters even more difficult for the Sooners coaching staff there was locker-room talk this week about the excitement of the team's conference opener next week in Baylor.
This September non-conference event is scheduled to kickoff at 6:00 p.m. ET on Gaylord Family field in Norman when OU's All-American quarterback Baker Mayfield welcomes Tulane's field generals Jonathan Banks, Johnathan Brantley and the Wave.
Banks, who accounted for four touchdowns in the season opener took a hard hit in the second quarter of last week's closely contested event against Navy and is questionable to play on Saturday night in Norman. Capable and experienced sophomore backup Johnathan Brantley will take the first snap for Wave. Assisting Brantley will be tailback Dontrell Hilliard and the clock-eating Willie Fritz spread-option attack.
While many have overlooked this contest due to the injury to starting signal caller Banks it is worth noting that his backup, Brantley, is extremely capable and more pass friendly than starter Banks. The 2016 Tulane offense was the third-worst passing attack in the nation as season ago completing just 42 percent of their passes with ten touchdowns against eight interceptions.
The running game is the Fritz signature with this team and the goal at Gaylord Field today is to keep the clock running and reduced the number of Oklahoma opportunities for big plays.
Mayfield was brilliant against the Buckeyes a week ago. It will be difficult for this OU offense to repeat that performance and a letdown today, at home, is expected. Mayfield may not have the full services of tight end Mark Andrews today who suffered a knee injury in the win over the Buckeyes and did not return. While Riley told the press that he expected Andrews would be available today versus the Green Wave don't expect to see too many of the Sooners starters on the field in the second half of this game.
Mayfield and new head coach Lincoln Riley are focused but it is unlikely they are overly excited about facing the Tulane offense, one that is difficult to gameplan and prepare for, so look for an inevitable game with little emotion from the OU sideline, and one where the Sooners coaching staff does their best to limit the starters snaps and get out of the event healthy.
Note: Week #2 underdogs of 30-plus points were 16-5 versus the spread.
Bob Balfe
Clemson -3
Heisman winner Lamar Jackson is a home dog. That in itself is enough for everyone to back Louisville, but when you look closer we have to look at the supporting cast. The Cardinals run game is going to struggle without Jeremy Smith and this offensive line is still young. Clemson is breaking in a new QB, but Kelly Bryant can throw the ball and his offensive line will give him protection. Clemson has three targets who have caught over 70 passes in their career who can get themselves open. Clemson has an outstanding defense while Louisville is average at best. The battle of the trenches clearly is with the Tigers tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland -106 over PHILADELPHIA
Winners of seven of its past nine games including the opener here last night, one really has to like the way the A’s are showing up and playing hard to close out the year. The two losses over that span came against Boston but prior to that series, Oakland swept Houston and scored 11, 11 and 9 runs respectively in the three-game sweep. The A’s will take a massive step down in class here when their hot bats will be facing Philadelphia’s, Ben Lively.
Lively’s 3.86 ERA is one of MLB’s most misleading marks this year among starters. Here’s a guy with 45 K’s in 75 frames and an ugly 33%/20%/47% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. None of that plays well at this park. Lively was sent down earlier this year before being called back up on August 20. He had some surface success back then too with a 3.38 ERA. However, his skills painted a much different story back then and they still do. His xERA is almost three runs higher than is actual ERA. His K-rate is a minuscule 3.6 per nine, and his command is average at best. We’re now warning you of the impending difficulties that will bite this starter where the sun doesn’t shine. This is a weak pitcher filling a rotation need for now.
Give us a strong offense behind a pitcher that induces groundballs at this park and throw in a cheap price and you can pencil us in. That’s the case here. Kendall Graveman’s 68% groundball rate in his last start was just another one of his many starts in which he induces one groundball after another. Since returning from injury on August 3 and making eight starts, Graveman’s groundball rate is 55% and his line-drive rate is a mere 13%. That line-drive rate since the beginning of August is tops in MLB and means that batters are having a difficult time picking up the ball or squaring up off of Graveman. As we approach the end of the season and fish through the discount bin, we won’t find a better bargain than Graveman against the Phillies spotting such a cheap price.
MILWAUKEE -1½ +111 over Miami
We have to apologize for last night’s Miami selection, as we did not realize that the game was being played in Milwaukee. The books have the Marlins listed as the home side and technically they are but literally, Miami is absolutely, 100% on the road again. This series was supposed to be in Miami but Irma curtailed those plans so the series remains in Milwaukee. What’s so sweet about that is Milwaukee bats first, meaning they’ll bat in the ninth inning no matter the score, which is another positive nugget for us just in case they are leading by one.
We’re not expecting that though. We expect the Crew to be up by 10, not one. Forget the pitchers for a second and focus on situation and what is. Miami hasn’t been home for a while (10 days). A lot of these players have homes in that region, not to mention family and friends. Surely, they are anxious to get home and they were probably looking forward to it before they were told they will remain in Milwaukee for the weekend. That was not welcomed news. Mentally, the Fish are ill-prepped to compete against this highly focused Brewers’ squad. Mentally, Miami’s season ended when Irma landed. They aren’t hitting, they aren’t pitching and they aren’t even coming close to winning.
Enter Adam Conley, the Marlins ripe for the pickings starter here. Conley opened 2017 in the Marlins starting rotation, but was jettisoned to Triple-A New Orleans on May 9 after posting a horrid 7.53 ERA in 29 IP. He has fared much better since returning on July 18, amassing a 3.72 ERA in 64 IP but nothing has changed other than his luck. Home runs are a major issue for him, as the fortuitous hr/f from 2015-16 has regressed. The decrease in velocity is worrisome and has no doubt been a factor in opposing batters making far more hard contact against him in 2017 (Hard hit balls 2015/2016/2017: 22%/31%/36%). With a lousy BB/K split of 35/66 in 93 innings, a vile groundball/fly-ball split (32%/46%), a 1.45 WHIP and an ERA/xERA split of 5.23/7.11, Adam Conley has about as much appeal as driving in rush hour. This is one of MLB’s worst starters that is pitching for a disinterested team that just wants to go home.
San Diego -1½ +325 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
25-40 + 28.95 units