Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, September 17th, 2016

Andrew Lange

Utah at San Jose St
Play: Under 50

Last season, quarterback Travis Wilson, running back Devontae Booker, receivers Britain Covey and Kenneth Scott, and a top-tier defense, helped the Utah Utes post an impressive 10-3 record. The offense wasn't always pretty but the team's balanced attack (180 ypg passing/183 ypg rushing) and a +13 turnover margin led to a fairly impressive 30.6 ppg. Through two weeks, it's clear that this year's edition of the offense is going to need more time to develop as all of the aforementioned offensive playmakers have departed.

Here are a couple of quotes from Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham following last week's 20-19 win over BYU.

"Troy's still learning," Whittingham said. "He's got some things to learn. You can't put the ball particularly in the red zone in that kind of traffic. If we don't turn it over six times, it's a whole different game."

"The drive we ended up kicking the field goal — that's who we can be and need to be," he said. "That smashmouth, down-your-throat football."

Whittingham is first discussing first-year transfer quarterback Troy Williams who finished with three interceptions. Next, he discusses a fourth quarter drive that defied the laws of math by taking up 11:12 (19 plays, 78 yards). And instead of capitalizing, the Utes settled for a field goal, something that Whittingham was actually excited about. Despite a -3 turnover margin, the Utes managed to pull off the win but we can expect a very conservative attack moving forward as the offense tries to find its way before PAC-12 play.

This week's opponent, San Jose State, sets up well for Utah's defense. In Week 1, the Spartans managed only 287 yards and 10 points against an improved but still ultra-soft Tulsa defense. And going back to last season, San Jose State had difficulty moving the football against better competition. Against Air Force, Oregon State, San Diego State, and BYU, the Spartans averaged only 240 ypg of total offense. And that was with first-team all-MWC do-everything running back Tyler Ervin who has since graduated. San Jose State's loss to San Diego State was a pretty good barometer of what we can expect in this contest. Both teams combined for 121 plays and the Aztecs held the Spartans to 148 total yards en route to a 30-7 win. With San Jose getting the opportunity to host a power conference team, I also think we're in better position for some adequate defensive resistance by the underdog. In the end, all signs point toward this game going under the total.

Alex Smith

Duke vs. Northwestern
Play: Northwestern -6

Both clubs enter this contest off bad losses to weak opposition with Duke losing a 24-14 conference decision to Wake Forest and the Wildcats falling to FCS Illinois State 9-7 on a last second field goal. It’s early, but the outcome of this game could go a long ways in determining whether or not either of these teams reach the postseason.

Duke's offense is going through some transitional issues as starting quarterback Thomas Sirk was lost for the year with a torn Achilles and two new offensive lineman try to gel within the rotation. The Blue Devils were held to just 37 rushing yards last game, and in return allowed 239 yards on the ground and three touchdowns to Demon Deacons freshman tailback Cade Carney. Note that last year, Duke held Wake to only 112 yards on the ground. Duke’s rush defense surrendered only 3.61 ypc in 2015 thanks in large part to do-everything hybrid linebacker Jeremy Cash who was arguably the most important defensive player in the country. Cash, who has since moved on to the NFL, didn’t play in the bowl game due to injury and the Blue Devils allowed Indiana to roll up 687 total yards.

Northwestern also had issues running the ball last week with starting rusher Justin Jackson picking up just 39 yards on 11 carries. ISU outgained the Cats 372-277 en route to the program’s first-ever win over Big Ten competition.

If we take a step back and look at the performances of both teams thus far, I feel as if Duke’s loss to Wake Forest was more alarming. In Durham, Wake outgained Duke by 1.25 yards per play. Note that the week prior, the Demon Deacons managed only 175 total yards in an ugly 7-3 win over a rebuilding Tulane squad. Meanwhile, Western Michigan, who has a chance to run the regular season table, beat the Wildcats 22-21 on a controversial ending. And Illinois State is a very solid top 20 FCS program more than capable of upsetting a clearly hungover middle-tier Big Ten team like Northwestern. No doubt Northwestern’s 10-win season from a year ago was fluky, but I still feel they have enough edges to get past was looks to be a very down Duke squad.

Rob Veno

Pittsburgh at Oklahoma St
Play: Oklahoma St -6

Opposite game ending reactions for these teams last week as Pitt was in jubilant mood after defeating Penn State while Oklahoma State was in complete disbelief as a 27-24 victory celebration turned into an unbelievable 30-27 loss. Heading into this contest the most important question is which team will able to erase Saturday’s results and fully focus on their weekly preparation.

Pittsburgh placed extreme emphasis on last week’s game as head coach Pat Narduzzi drilled into his coaching staff and team that they were going to treat the Penn State game as a rivalry. The Panthers came out of the chute fired up and they were up 28-7 just over three minutes into the second quarter. From there, Penn State outscored Pitt 32-14 the rest of the way and had the ball in field goal range with a chance to tie but an interception sealed the deal.

Offensive balance has been problematic for the Panthers who have been ultra-reliant on their ground attack which has produced 214 yards per game. Despite only recording 266 total passing yards thus far (ranks 105th nationally) Pittsburgh has been able to win each of its two contests. That pedestrian style may not get them past Oklahoma State which has been terrific against the run ranking 22nd nationally. Last week the Cowboys yielded only 84 true rushing yards on 3.2 per carry to Central Michigan which possesses a strong ground attack. Further hindering Pittsburgh fundamentally in this matchup could be its pass defense which was lit up and perhaps exposed by Penn State. In come-from-behind-mode from the early second quarter on, PSU shredded Pitt to the tune of 332 yards and 13.7 yards per completion. All of that was done by a Nittany Lions attack which is in just its second game of new OC Joe Moorhead’s system. Oklahoma State has an array of weaponry in their established system led by quarterback Mason Rudolph and they’re far more potent than Penn State.

This situation also sets up nicely for Oklahoma State which catches Pitt having to travel for the first time this season and off of an all-out effort. Meanwhile the Cowboys get to stay at home for the third consecutive week and they figure to be a determined, redemption seeking team. My power ratings suggest Oklahoma State should be -11.5 rather than the current -6.5 which is another signal toward the Cowboys side. Positive indicators in the fundamentals, situationals and power ratings all lead toward a play on Oklahoma State.

Wunderdog

Chicago @ St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis +101

Kyle Hendricks came close to a no-hitter in a 4-1 win over St. Louis on Monday, but the Cubs will have a tougher time tonight as Jason Hammel takes the mound against the Cardinals. Hammel's last three road starts have been disastrous as he has allowed 22 runs (17 earned) and 28 hits in only 11 1/3 innings. Hammel gave up eight earned runs and 13 hits in 5 2/3 innings his last outing at Milwaukee in a 12-5 Cubs loss. Chicago has lost seven of Hammel's last eight road starts. Jaime Garcia has a 3.09 ERA against Chicago this year in 11 2/3 innings with an opponent batting average of just .222. The Cardinals are fighting for a Wild Card spot and the Cubs are playing their eighth road game in a row and have split their last six games.

Tony George

Georgia -7

Look this is a perfect scenario - Just Like Tennessee is Week 2 laying just 11 to a bad VT team. The Vols struggled the week before in OT against lowly Application State and that debacle kept the line down. Well Georgia almost lost at home to Nichols St while Mizzou was beating up a nobody in Eastern Michigan, and while watching that game I told my buddy that we were gonna get under 10 points with Georgia, and trust me, Mizzou cannot stop the Bulldog running game (even though the Georgia QB is not all that good it wont matter Chub will go ballistic. Anyone good on defense, or even average will shut down Mizzou. Their QB Lock looked like an ass clown against West Virginia and they could not stop the Mountaineers in that game and their vaunted defense gave up 494 yards in that game and gave up 428 yards to Eastern Michigan although they blew them out. West Virginia DOMINATED Mizzou (I had them in that game -10), and Georgia is better than WV in my opinion, even on the road at Mizzou whose home field might be worth a point and Mizzou fans throw it in if they are getting beat as well, not a riotous environment at all. A new head coach and staff at Mizzou, no running game, an average to below average QB and no offensive line what so ever for Mizzou will result in a 12+ point Georgia win, who now will have their head clearly out of their rear end after last weeks scare.

Dave Cokin

San Diego St. -10.5

Murphy's Law appears to have targeted Northern Illinois as an early season victim based on the first two weeks of action. Let's just say things could not be going much worse for the Huskies.

NIU opened the campaign with a loss as chalk at Wyoming. Making matters worse, that game was delayed for hours due to lightning, then turned into a marathon that the Huskies ended up losing in triple overtime.

Coming out of that crazy game in the Laramie altitude, NIU was in trouble before the game at South Florida ever started. Once the proceedings got underway, it got worse. Much worse. The Huskies could not handle the athleticism of the Bulls and were pretty much out of the game by halftime. The topper to what was a brutal trip to begin with was a significant injury to senior QB Drew Hare, and he's now out for the foreseeable future.

NIU finally gets to go home this week, but the task once again appears very difficult. San Diego State will roll into DeKalb with Donnel Pumphrey leading a very potent ground game, and with the way the Huskies have not defensed the run in their first couple of outings, I'm expecting a big day for the SDSU offense.

Ryan Graham will now take over as the signal caller for Northern Illinois. Graham ganed valuable experience last season when Hare was injured, so that's at least a plus of sorts. But Graham does not possess as many tools as Hare, and that would include escapability, which could mean some sack opprtunities for the Aztecs.

San Diego State needs to avoid letting down off the wild win against California. That was a big game against a Power 5 opponent and head coach Rocky Long has to make sure his players don't go flat on the road against a lesser opponent that is off to a bad start. The atmosphere last week against the Golden Bears was electric. Huge crowd, a crazy thriller that went down to the wire and lasted more than four hours. There's no denying there has to be at least a little concern that the Aztecs go a little flat here and I'm sure a pround Northern Illinois squad wants to rights its ship off the ugly start.

But for me the bottom line is that I'm not going to guess at emotion and wil instead rely on the facts. Hare being out is a big loss for NIU. And the matchup is unfavorable, as SDSU wants to run the football and the Huskies have not defensed the ground game at all well thus far. That ultimately pushes me to the chalk side here, San Diego State minus the points.

Harry Bondi

NORTHWESTERN -6 over Duke

What a horrific start to the season for Northwestern. After winning 10 games last year the Wildcats have dropped two straight, but those losses have come by a total of three points, so we think there has been an overreaction to the line here. This is still a team that has won 20 of 24 non-conference home games and will treat this game as if it’s life or death. The Dukies disgraced themselves in a loss to Wake Forest last week and run into a buzz saw here in Evanston.

Sleepyj

Louisville +3.5

Louisville is for real...I'm rather shocked this number is for real for the bettors...+3.5 being a key number for a home team is rather strong..Don't be shocked one bit if Louisville goes off as the favorite..I see a big middle chance and scalp here for this game...Cardinals have blown up the scoreboard the past two weeks..Now they played some weak competition, but it got the ball rolling..The offense seems to be in a good rhythm and the defense got it dialed in the last two weeks...FSU is strong as we have seen, but they came out of the gate slow and poured it on at home..How will they respond on the road in a very tough place to play...This very well could be the decider in who makes the ACC champ game..So it will be a great one from what I see...Louisville has put up a total of 132 pts in two games..That's 61ppg...That's very good..They also showed up bigtime on the road last week scoring 62pts against Syracuse...Typical games in Syracuse are close for the most part..It's just a tough place to play for teams..Putting up that amount of points impresses me though...Louisville QB Lamar Jackson looks very good and so does the Cardinal running attack...Two headed monster in my eyes...FSU had a cupcake wlk through last week with Charelston So....Not much of a test at all..It did however provide the Noles with some reps for the offense and defense...My big concern for the Noles is the fact that this game is on the road and they are laying over a key number...Do we really know how good these teams are..I would say no...I would also say the Noles have faced some adversity for sure with the opening game of the season..That might just pay off for them...I'm not one buying into rankings the first few weeks and the #2 ranking and big name has opened this line up wrong IMO...Louisville gets call +3.5....It's the best number you can get in this game..That's the goal for every game.

Jesse Schule

UCLA vs. BYU
Play: BYU

The Cougars could easily be 2-0 heading into this week's home game versus UCLA, but a failed two-point conversion resulted in a 20-19 loss at Utah last Saturday. Once again the defense looked strong, terrorizing Utah's junior quarterback Troy Williams, forcing him to throw three picks. Williams was just 14-of-23 for 194 yards with one TD.

This isn't an ideal spot for UCLA and struggling sophomore quarterback Josh Rosen. Once considered a Heisman candidate, Rosen has thrown more picks than TDs so far this season. The Bruins were clinging to just a seven point lead in the fourth quarter of last Saturday's game versus UCLA, before scoring the game's final 14 points.

The worst game of Josh Rosen's career came at home against BYU last year, when he threw for 106 yards on 11-of-23 passing with one TD and three INTs. The Bruins needed to rally from a double-digit fourth quarter deficit to win that game 24-23. This time around the Cougars will be at home, with Taysom Hill at quarterback instead of Tanner Mangum. The Bruins won't be able to lean on Paul Perkins, who ran for 219 yards in last year's game, and they are banged up on the defensive line after losing a pair of DL (McKinley and Vanderdoes).

Alex Smart

Army vs. UTEP
Play: Army -5

The Black Knights are enjoying a 2-0 start to the new season after wins over Temple and Rice. Army's triple option is clicking on all cylinders, behind two solid QBs,and lead the nation in time of possession and there is no way in my humble opinion a UTEP defense with numerous question marks at all three levels can stop the Black Knights . On the other side of the ball the Black Knights D, has been equally staunch collecting three interceptions against Temple and grabbing two turnovers vs Rice. Don't be surprised if Army romps again.

Brad Diamond

Alabama vs. Ole Miss
Play: Alabama -10½

With Mississippi winning at Alabama last year 43-37 in a real shootout, coach Nick Saban sets up in a rare double-revenge situation for the Crimson Tide. Last week Alabama crushed Western Kentucky 38-10 holding the Hilltoppers to 239 yards of total offense (23 on the ground). Mississippi ripped up FCS Wofford 38-13. Don’t get too excited about the 233 yards on the ground accrued by Wofford, they have “NO” passing attack. Ole Miss lost game #1 of the season to Florida State 45-34. The Sems went on a 30-0 run to silence the Rebels, and forged redshirt frosh QB Francois (33-52, 419) into the national limelight.

This week the Crimson Tide will need to ride the running game a little more than last week keeping the Ole Miss offense and QB Kelly on the sideline. On the technical side, Alabama is 21-14 ATS in road sets, while the Rebels are 18-16 ATS at home, but they did have a 4-2 ATS mark last year with covers versus Fresno State, New Mexico State, Texas A&M and LSU. Ole Miss is 21-7 SU at home with just 2 losses over the last two years against Arkansas and Auburn. As we now understand, Saban just reloads every season with 4* and 5* recruits waiting in the wings to fill out the starting lineup. With this unit having the best passing attack potential for Alabama in some time, I am looking for a high scoring game. Make it Alabama 46 Ole Miss 27.

Big Al

Alabama vs. Ole Miss
Play: Alabama -10½

There’s no doubt that the Rebels won’t lack for confidence in this game vs. the #1-ranked Crimson Tide. After all, they’ve defeated Alabama each of the past two years. But you know what they say about “paybacks,” and I feel that Alabama will desperately want to make a statement in this game. And since 1980, SEC Conference road favorites are a stellar 65-19 straight up and 53-31 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset loss the previous season. That doesn’t bode well for Ole Miss on Saturday. And neither does the fact that unrested double-digit home underdogs, with a .500 or better record, have covered just 37 of 99 games since 1980. Finally, Nick Saban’s teams have excelled in conference games in his coaching career, as they’re 92-67 ATS. And his teams are also 25-11 ATS when priced from -10 to -15 points. Lay the points with the Crimson Tide.

Executive Sports

Temple at Penn St
Play: Temple +9

Nittany Lions return home to try to bounce back after last week's tough loss to cross state rival Pitt. That was the first meeting between those two schools in 15 years, but the rivalry amongst the fans never really ended. State is also looking to get revenge from last year's road loss to Temple, but this isn't the same Penn State team of years ago. Their inability to overcome their weaknesses is evident.

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - in non-conference games, in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games. (52-22, 70% since 1992.)

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season. (36-10, 78% since 1992.)

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games. (48-20, 71% since 1992.)

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, team that had a winning record last season. (32-9, 78% since 1992.)

Bryan Leonard

East Carolina at South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -3

Not much was expected out of East Carolina this year but the Pirates shocked NC State at home last week 33-30. But a closer look at the box score shows that EC was out gained 7.8 to 5.8 yards per play. While the motivation to beat an SEC on the road is there, we're not sure the talent is.

We are a perfect 2-0 thus far in South Carolina games. So we have a pretty good feel for this team. While the offense is obviously down the defense is still solid. Coming off two straight road games as an underdog we like the Gamecocks at home this week. This line has really dropped from the opener and now we pounce on the cheap line.