Ian Cameron
East Carolina at South Carolina
Play: East Carolina +3
I have no qualms recommending a bet against South Carolina laying points, especially facing a solid East Carolina team that has notched back-to-back wins to open the season including last week against NC State. It was a quality win considering the fact ECU brought in a new head coach in Scottie Montgomery combined with new coordinators and systems on both sides of the football. There has been a ton of rebuilding due to graduation losses along the offensive line and in various levels of their defense which led me to believe it could take some time for this team to gel. The Pirates however knocked off the Wolfpack 33-30 last week with Minnesota transfer QB Philip Nelson showing he has a solid grasp of this offense. Nelson is completing 81.3% of his passes through two games for 695 yards with 6 TDs and just 1 INT.
South Carolina has played two mediocre offensive teams to begin the season in SEC foes Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. You could certainly argue ECU's offense could be their toughest test of the season to this point. There are some holes in the East Carolina defense and that was on display last week against NC State as it allowed close to 500 total yards of offense on nearly 8 yards per play. But South Carolina offense has proven to be very unsettled. They also may be without a couple starters along the o-line with right tackle Blake Camper and right guard Cory Helms exiting last week's game with injuries and currently questionable for Saturday. The offensive line problems were on full display as the Gamecocks ran for a pathetic 34 yards against MSU. And the QB position is a major problem area with Perry Orth struggling and getting benched last week for freshman Brandon McIlwain who gave the team a bit of a spark offensively in the second half. Note that no starting QB has been named yet for this game. South Carolina was outgained by 262 yards in their 24-14 loss to Mississippi State and the fact their defense was gashed for 485 total yards in the defeat does not bode well for success moving forward.
The South Carolina defense will also be minus a key cog in the secondary with senior safety Chaz Elder out for this game and possibly beyond with a rib contusion. East Carolina has been a profit machine in this pointspread role: 6-0 ATS since 2013 as a non-conference underdog and I think they take this game down to the wire with a chance to win outright. Worth it to shop around and pick off one of the few +3.5's remaining.
Harry Bondi
TOLEDO -20.5 over Fresno State
We’ll lay the points here with the Rockets, who have cruised to a 2-0 record by a combined score of 76-13 against weaklings Arkansas State and Maine, and will it rolling here at home against the Bulldogs. Second tough road trip in three weeks for Fresno, which opened at Nebraska. Last week it beat Sacramento State 31-3, but that was a close game until the fourth quarter when Fresno finally pulled away. No such luck here against a Toledo team that holds a huge size and talent advantage in the trenches. Fresno State has covered just two of its last eight games as a double-digit dog and the Rockets are 11-6 ATS in their last 17 as a favorite. Blowout!
Alan Harris
Louisiana Tech / Texas Tech Over 81
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs hit the road to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Tex. on Saturday night. Louisiana Tech has posted a 5-2 record to the over in their last seven games following an ATS loss, and they have that same 5-2 record to the over in their last seven nonconference games. They have also gone 15-7 to the over following a game where they scored 40 points or more, and they have gone over the number in six of their last seven games after a game where they put up 450 yards of offense or more. The Red Raiders have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have posted a 4-1 record to the over in their last five games following a straight up loss and they have gone an excellent 6-2 to the over in their last eight games played in the month of September. They have also gone 5-2 to the over in their last seven games outside the Big 12, and they have gone up and over the total in seven of their last nine games following a game where they gave up 40 points or more. Throw in the fact that Texas Tech has gone a lights out 19-7 to the over in their last 26 home games, and that's where we'll have our play as we are expecting another shootout featuring the Red Raiders just as we saw last week when they take on the Bulldogs in West Texas on Saturday night.
Robert Ferringo
Miami / Appalachian St Over 53.5
I don't think there is any doubt that we are going to see some points in this game. Everything about the spread suggests that Appalachian State is primed for an upset over heavy public favorite Miami. But if that is the case - and even if it is not - the Mountaineers are going to have to put some points up. Miami has scored 70 and 38 points in its first two weeks, and they have a load of talent on that side of the ball, including underrated Brad Kaaya at quarterback. I know Appalachian State's defense was able to hang tough against Tennessee in the opener and only allow 20 points. But Miami has a better QB and more aggressive scheme. Last year Appalachian State allowed 41 points to Clemson and in 2014 they gave up 52 points to Michigan, so the Mountaineers have had a hard time slowing down big-time programs. Miami has a bye next week, and Appalachian's work against the Vols will keep the Hurricanes from looking past them.
Matt Josephs
Akron vs. Marshall
Play: Over 56½
Marshall gets their first FBS opponent as they host Akron. The Herd beat Morgan State 62-0 last week with good offense and a stifling defense. Akron's got two games under their belt and they split with a win over VMI and a loss to Wisconsin. The Zips want to get up and down the field with some pace although that doesn't help the defense. These two played a 48-17 game back in 2014. I think this one should go over the total, but unfortunately the thing jumped a few points. I still like it.
Mike Rose
Hawaii at Arizona
Play: Arizona -24
If not for four turnovers acquired early in the second half of last week’s game, the Wildcats likely would have suffered the worst defeat of the Rich Rod regime. Two more late in the fourth quarter allowed for Arizona to get out of dodge with the win. Hawaii has turned the ball over an average of 2.5 times per game. If Zona is able to build off last week and force the Rainbow Warriors into a bevy of miscues, it will have an excellent shot of covering the spread.
Hawaii simply doesn’t have the offensive makeup to take advantage of Arizona’s weak passing defense. With that the case, the matchup to keep a close eye on will be Nick Wilson against Hawaii’s front seven. The Rainbow Warriors have been ripped apart to the tune of 236.3 rushing yards per game and allowed a Michigan rushing attack to have its best game of the year against it.
This is the game Arizona is going to flex its muscles. After incurring a mighty big scare and tackling like garbage last week, you know darn well Rodriguez worked his kids extra hard in practice all week. With a showdown with Pac-12 favorite Washington on deck, this team must get itself into better form and into the right mindset to start taking on conference opposition. Hawaii will play the role of sacrificial lamb perfectly.
The Wildcats failed to score a touchdown in the first half of their first two games. Look for that nonsense to come to a screeching halt in this one as they get out to a commanding first half lead and coast the rest of the way. If you're not keen on laying the full game chalk, hit the Wildcats up in the first half as I expect them to come out fired up and take it to Hawaii right from the outset.
Buster Sports
Buffalo vs, Nevada
Play: Buffalo +11.5
The University at Buffalo Bulls have had a couple of weeks to prepare for their journey to Reno to play the Nevada Wolfpack. The Wolfpack are coming off a beating at Notre Dame losing 39-10 and we believe they are just giving too many points to the Bulls. Looking into the stats of the first two games for Nevada and we will see that they have been just brutal against the run. They allowed 239 yards rushing against Notre Dame and the week before they allowed Cal Poly Slo to run for 383 yards. When you see that kind of yards being gained the defense is not getting better anytime soon against the run. Nevada beat Cal Poly Sol by 3 but were outgained in the game by Cal Poly which is a big concern to anyone backing the Wolfpack here. The Bulls also had trouble losing to Albany. The difference they outgained the Great Danes and they had 4 TO which basically cost them the game. We see the Bulls running the ball often and eating up the clock, by doing that we believe the Reno altitude should not come into play like it so often does.
Mike Rose
Colorado at Michigan
Play: Colorado +20.5
While the Michigan Wolverines cruised to their second straight blowout win and cover of the season last week, there were some glaring inefficiencies in their overall body of work. They’ll look to rectify those issues in Week 3 against what’s proven to be a game Colorado Buffaloes side that’s gotten out to the program’s best start since 2013 in hopes of attaining its first winning record since 2005. Staying undefeated against Michigan will be its toughest test of the young season.
Plenty of unknowns for both sides entering this matchup. Colorado has impressed and racked up some impressive stats on both sides of the ball, but tallied them against much lesser opposition than they’ll face today. Michigan has rolled to a pair of home wins and covers, but did just concede 275 yards rushing to UCF at 6.0 yards per carry.
Wilton Speight will be the toughest quarterback the Buffs will have had to deal with to date, but it’ll be interesting to see how he reacts to dealing with a defense that’s actually able to pressure him. Liufau could also be a terror for the Wolverines to contain with his dual threat ability.
Michigan won’t be in danger of losing this game, but asking it to cover another huge spread like this against a team playing with a ton of confidence is a bit rich for my blood. If the Buffs can limit turnovers and take advantage of Michigan’s weak link defensively, it could really put a scare into the Fightin’ Harbaughs. It would become even more interesting if it forces the Wolverines to once again be one dimensional and force Speight to beat them through the air amidst constant pressure.
Regardless, I don’t foresee Michigan running away and hiding in this one, and I’m actually pretty interested to see how they react to dealing with a dose of adversity for the first time this season.
Sports Cheetah
South Florida at Syracuse
Play: Syracuse +14.5
Remember when Louisville was laying 14.5 points at Syracuse for most of last week? You're telling me USF is comparable to 'Ville now? This is a classic case of overreaction after seeing the Orange fall off late against the Cards on national TV and people seeing the Bulls beat Northern Illinois by 31. Not only was that a horrific spot for Northern Illinois traveling to South Florida after a multiple OT loss in Wyoming (highest altitude of any school in the country), but their starting QB Drew Hare was injured in that game as well. USF is good, not great. The last time the Bulls saw an up-tempo spread like the one they'll see Saturday, they gave up 45 points in their bowl game to Western Kentucky. It doesn't hurt USF also might be looking ahead to hosting FSU at home next week. I don't expect over 2 TDs to last so I'd get down on it sooner rather than later.
Cal Sports
Oregon at Nebraska
Play: Oregon +3.5
Let me start by saying I strongly think the wrong team is favored. Last season Oregon played the #30 toughest schedule and finished 9-4. Nebraska, meanwhile, played the #39 toughest schedule yet went only 5-7 in the regular season and got a 6th win in the bowl game.
Fast forward to this season and Nebraska, with their 13 returning starters, is a favorite to Oregon who returns 11 starters plus adds an All-American FCS QB transfer. Both teams are 2-0 and perhaps the line is where it’s at because Nebraska’s is 2-0 ATS with the 2 wins by a combined score of 93-17 while Oregon is 0-2 ATS with their two victories by a combined score of 97-54.
One of the most important handicapping tools I can share with you when teams that played over-matched foes is to: Analyze the first-half numbers! Nebraska despite being a favorite of 29-points to Fresno St only led the game 14-10 at halftime and after a 29-0 second half performance got the misleading cover. Last week the Cornhuskers faced a Wyoming team that was off a 3OT game with a 90-minute rain that didn’t finish until Sunday morning and despite being a 25-point favorite only led 24-17 into the 3Q before a 28-0 4Q outburst. This shows that Nebraska’s #1 units could not pull away from overmatched competition giving us a pair of misleading covers. Now let’s look at Oregon. The Ducks failed to cover both games this season but at halftime against UC Davis they led 25-7 and last week against an ACC foe, Virginia, with their new head coach Bronco Mendenhall the Ducks led 30-6 at halftime. In the second half Oregon played many young players and only outscored UC Davis 28-21 and were actually outscored by the Cavaliers 20-14.
While it should be mentioned that Nebraska head coach Mike Riley does know the Oregon personnel having previously been the head coach at Oregon St he was always the underdog motivating his team against an an-state ‘Big Brother’. This week Riley coaches a Nebraska team which hasn’t faced an opponent with this type of speed since 2012 (Ohio St – Nebraska lost 63-38) and it will get ugly.
Oregon has only been an away dog FIVE TIMES in the last 6 years and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS. Last season they were an away dog 4 times covering at AP #5 Michigan St and pulling the upset in each of their other 3 road games including at AP# 7 Stanford as well as Washington and Arizona St. It’s all Green & Yellow this week!
Oskeim Sports
Kansas vs. Memphis
Play: Memphis -19.5
Kansas could be the most hopeless football program in the country after enduring seven consecutive losing seasons, including last year's 0-12 campaign wherein the Jayhawks lost their home games by 34 points per game. Kansas is 3-16 SU in road openers and has lost 35 straight road games.
Moreover, the Jayhawks are 16-28-1 ATS as road underdogs and are 3-11 ATS in their last fourteen games overall, whereas Memphis is 10-1-2 ATS in its last thirteen non-conference affairs. Kansas is coming off a 37-21 home loss to Ohio in a game that was thoroughly dominated by the Bobcats. The Jayhawks trailed 28-7 at halftime with a 359-21 yard deficit and finished the game with just nine first downs.
Kansas was outrushed 329-26 and looks lost in the second year of head coach David Beaty's "Air Raid" offense. Let's also note that Memphis defeated the Jayhawks by 32 points in Kansas last year, and I expect an even greater win by the Tigers Saturday afternoon following an early-season bye week.
Indeed, college football teams off a win and a bye week are a profitable 101-71-2 ATS versus non-conference opponents since 1980. Memphis is grossly underrated this season, which seems to be the result of losing quarterback Paxton Lynch to the NFL and head coach Justin Fuente to Virginia Tech. The Tigers defense has seven returning starters and will produce better numbers than last year's 9-4 squad.
Memphis also possesses a potent offense under first year head coach Mike Norvell, who served as Arizona State's offensive coordinator over the last four years. Norvell hired Chip Long to be his offensive coordinator, and Long is widely regarded as being one of the best recruiters at the collegiate level.
Finally, Memphis possesses one of the nation's best special teams units. With Memphis standing at 5-1 ATS following a bye, lay the points with the Tigers and invest with confidence.
Otto Sports
Oregon at Nebraska
Play: Oregon +3
From 2010 to 2014, Oregon closed as an underdog only once (53-30 win at 7th-ranked Stanford as +2.5 dogs in 2011). They were the clear class of the PAC-12 and garnered a ton of respect in the betting markets. Last season, however, was the first time since 2007 the Ducks failed to win 10 games. And what we remember last was an embarrassing bowl game loss to TCU in which Oregon blew a 31-0 halftime lead. Heading into this season, the Ducks weren't the first choice to win the PAC-12; in fact, they were priced third behind both Stanford and Washington. And through the first two weeks of the season, the downgrading looks to be correct with Oregon posting lackluster wins and pointspread failures against weaker foes Virginia and UC Davis.
Nebraska has that "well oiled machine" look after blowout wins and easy pointspread covers over Wyoming and Fresno State. The two wins have helped the Cornhuskers make a sizeable power rating jump. Last season, Nebraska finished 43rd according to Sagarin. This season, they've skyrocketed to 22nd and quickly bypassed Oregon who dropped from 20th to 33rd. It makes it seems as if this is a matchup of two programs heading in completely different directions but I think it is far too early to call for Oregon's demise and Nebraska's meteoric ascension. For starters, there is still a class difference both from a conference perspective (PAC-12 > Big Ten) and a speed/athleticism (Oregon > Nebraska) standpoint. Last season, the PAC-12 West was rated the second strongest conference/division in the country behind the SEC West and Oregon played the 18th-ranked SOS and was able to post a +1.27 ypp advantage over league opponents. Meanwhile, Nebraska played in the 8th-ranked Big Ten West and had the 42nd-ranked SOS. They probably deserved better than their 6-7 record with a handful of close losses but still outgained Big Ten foes by only +0.18 ypp. That's a huge gap in performance and again, it came with Oregon having a "down" season.
Oregon has been tremendous in the role of an underdog with outright wins over Arizona State, Washington, and Stanford a season ago as well as a pointspread cover in a 31-28 loss at Michigan State. The gap between this two teams/programs isn't as massive as it was 2-3 years ago but I'll still side with the stronger pedigree catching points. A few market indicators suggest +3.5 may be available before game day.
Wunderdog
Boston College @ Virginia Tech
Pick: Boston College +6
Boston College is a tough team for a lot of bettors to wrap around. All you have to do is look at the sputtering offense, and it gives bettors the chills, but in the end the defense is better than the offense is bad, and they manage to stay in games right to the end. Last week may be offering some insight as they took on Massachusetts, a team that held Florida to 24 points in the Swamp, and BC generated 26. The BC offense has an experienced FBS QB in Patrick Towles, who came over from Kentucky, and having a couple games under his belt and learning to work in a new system should have the Eagles providing more on the scoreboard as the season goes on. Virginia Tech no longer has the defense and special teams of their superior teams of the past. After eight consecutive 10+ win seasons, they have been a fringe Bowl team the last four years. The once potent Hokies that seemed to win ATS with regularity, have fallen to 24-43-1 ATS since 2011. They once owned a home field advantage that was one of the top in the country, but their last 26 here shows a woeful 8-18 ATS. I think this game stacks up pretty even, and getting just about a TD with a great defense is the way to go here. Make the play on Boston College.
Greg Shaker
Colorado / Michigan Over 57
Colorado will bring the 11th Highest Effective Tempo Offense (Adjusted for OT Games) into this game but they don't have the horses to stop the Wolverines. We are not over-analyzing this one as our Models agree that we will see some fireworks here, perhaps even on special teams. The Buff's QB is Dual Threat and the kind of QB that can give Michigan Fits so despite the Solid Michigan D Colorado should endzone a couple or 3 times. This one opened 56 at Cris and 57 at Pinny. Most likely not much movement is going to happen and could easily wander down but we got it early..
Marc Lawrence
Army vs. UTEP
Play: UTEP +4
Edges - Miners: 9-1 ATS home the past three seasons; and 2-0 ATS home off initial loss of the season. Cadets: 2-24 SU and 5-20 ATS last 26 true away games; and 1-7 ATS away off two wins-exact. With Army having the unfortunate death of one of its players lingering overhead and not in the best mental state of mind, we recommend a 1* play on UTEP.