Matt Mohr
Iowa State vs. TCU
Play: TCU -24
Both Iowa State and TCU are coming off devastating losses last week but only one team is poised to bounce back(TCU) and the other will continue their spiral for another week(ISU). TCU played a close game with what is shaping up to be a very good Arkansas team. What TCU has proven in the first 2 weeks is their offense can put up some points averaging 48.5 points per game. The Iowa State defense got shoved around by their inner state rival last week giving up 435 yards and 42 points. They have also only forced 1 turnover thus far which ranks near the bottom in the country. TCU has struggled on defense but those struggles don't compare to the train wreck on offense Iowa State has fielded in the first 2 week. They are averaging 299 yards/game which ranks 115th nationally. This will be a statement game for TCU and don't expect them to take their foot off the gas. TCU erases the 24 points early and wins by 35.
Bill Biles
Tulane +5.5
In a game where only 41 pass attempts have been made between the 2 teams this should be a game that ends quickly and will be close. Both teams rely heavily on the run and will be successful in this one. I like Tulane at home to keep it close and maybe even win the game outright.
Freddy Wills
Miami vs. Appalachian St
Play: Miami -3½
This may seem like a sucker bet to most and I was high on both of these teams entering the season. The thought is the fact that App State took Tennessee to the wire and lost in OT, and then looked good at Old Dominion and host this match up in their biggest game ever at home. I’m still not sold I thought their game against Old Dominion was misleading as they allowed 5.1 ypc and were only a net 89 yards in the matchup. Miami has absolutely dominated the line of scrimmage this year 649 yards to 70 and feature a balanced offense with senior QB Brad Kaaya.
Josh Dobbs, and Tennessee did not impress me in their big win over Virginia Tech last week which was the most misleading game of week 2 in my opinion Virginia Tech was the better team, but very unlucky as their were 7 total fumbles in that game, but Tennessee recovered all 7. It’s relevant, because I don’t think Tennessee is as good as advertised so the close loss to Tennessee looks not as great to me.
I really like head coach Mark Richt and his ability to be prepared for anything. I think this game was actually circled for Miami since they have a bye next week, and just came off a game against Florida Atlantic. Everyone knows App. State is a solid team and even the assistant coaches on Miami are not taking them lightly. This may seem like a suckers bet, but I like Miami and my algorithms do as well in this situation at 14-6 ATS over 7 years.
Dave Cokin
Marshall -17
There's not a lot of current form to draw upon as far as Akron and Marshall go. The Zips were out of their class last week at Wisconsin while the Thundering Herd have played just once and that was against an overmatched FCS opponent. Despite the big number, I think this game should provide more of an indicator as to what to actually make of these two squads. That said, I have some definite opinions that were formed prior to the season and I'm going to utilize those thoughts to make a play here.
Akron has some pretty good talent at the skill positions. Thomas Woodson is a decent QB, there are a couple of okay running backs and I'm expecting Jojo Natson to be one of the more explosive players in the MAC. But there are a couple of areas of great concern on this team. The Zips have a very inexperienced offensive line and on the defensive side of the ball, linebacker looks like a problem area. While I'm not about to compare Marshall to Wisconsin in terms of being able to overpower the Zips defense physically, I do think the Badgers exposed the big liability on that Akron unit and I suspect they will be vulnerable again this weekend.
I really like this Marshall team and I picked them to win CUSA this season. The Thundering Herd have a big home field edge and if the defensive talent lives up to expectations, this team will be very tough to beat this season. The Herd offense should be quite dynamic. Chase Litton had to take over the QB reigns as a freshman last year when the incumbent got hurt, and he's already establishing himself as one of the best at his position in CUSA. I'm not quite as sold on the other skill positions just yet, but there was quite a bit of confidence indicated in these players prior to the season. The OL is loaded. The Marshall defense is lacking in terms of returning starters but the consensus among those who cover the league is that the talent level is up from where it was last season.
Scheduling dynamics could be in play here. I'll admit a little concern about Marshall hosting Louisville next week. But the lookahead factor isn't as troubling as the Herd have only played once and that was against an FCS squad. I'm encouraged by the pre-game coverage in the local rags that would at least seem to indicate the team is zeroed in on this game and not peeking ahead to next week's big game. It's definitely a tough spot for Akron. The Zips are on the road for a second straight game, and they really did get manhandled physically last week at Wisconsin. So I think it's advantage Marshall on that count.
I made this number Herd -19.5, so it's not an overwhelming differential from where the line currently resides. But if I'm right on my opinion as far this team goes, Marshall might well rightfully be even bigger chalk and I also like the way their offense matches up with the area of weakness on the Akron defense. Big price, but I will go ahead and lay the lumber in this game with Marshall.
Dave Cokin
San Diego St. -10.5
Murphy's Law appears to have targeted Northern Illinois as an early season victim based on the first two weeks of action. Let's just say things could not be going much worse for the Huskies.
NIU opened the campaign with a loss as chalk at Wyoming. Making matters worse, that game was delayed for hours due to lightning, then turned into a marathon that the Huskies ended up losing in triple overtime.
Coming out of that crazy game in the Laramie altitude, NIU was in trouble before the game at South Florida ever started. Once the proceedings got underway, it got worse. Much worse. The Huskies could not handle the athleticism of the Bulls and were pretty much out of the game by halftime. The topper to what was a brutal trip to begin with was a significant injury to senior QB Drew Hare, and he's now out for the foreseeable future.
NIU finally gets to go home this week, but the task once again appears very difficult. San Diego State will roll into DeKalb with Donnel Pumphrey leading a very potent ground game, and with the way the Huskies have not defensed the run in their first couple of outings, I'm expecting a big day for the SDSU offense.
Ryan Graham will now take over as the signal caller for Northern Illinois. Graham ganed valuable experience last season when Hare was injured, so that's at least a plus of sorts. But Graham does not possess as many tools as Hare, and that would include escapability, which could mean some sack opprtunities for the Aztecs.
San Diego State needs to avoid letting down off the wild win against California. That was a big game against a Power 5 opponent and head coach Rocky Long has to make sure his players don't go flat on the road against a lesser opponent that is off to a bad start. The atmosphere last week against the Golden Bears was electric. Huge crowd, a crazy thriller that went down to the wire and lasted more than four hours. There's no denying there has to be at least a little concern that the Aztecs go a little flat here and I'm sure a pround Northern Illinois squad wants to rights its ship off the ugly start.
But for me the bottom line is that I'm not going to guess at emotion and wil instead rely on the facts. Hare being out is a big loss for NIU. And the matchup is unfavorable, as SDSU wants to run the football and the Huskies have not defensed the ground game at all well thus far. That ultimately pushes me to the chalk side here, San Diego State minus the points
SPORTS WAGERS
West Ham +181 over WEST BROM
Last weekend was an absolute collapse by West Ham. Up 2-0 at home to Watford, the Hammers completely fell apart allowing four consecutive goals en route to their most devastating result of the season. The momentum West Ham earned in the first half was completed stolen after a fortunate ricochet and an unlucky clash of defenders resulted in the 2-2 draw at the half. The second half started the way the first ended with Watford taking the lead quickly and never turning back. This result is very concerning for the Hammers, but what it has done is sunk their value to a low that they haven't been to in a couple years. West Ham’s stock is so low that they will enter Saturday's game against one of the Premier League's most unimpressive clubs, West Bromwich, as an underdog. Playing West Ham as a dog has held value time and time again and while we found ourselves on the wrong side of two very unlucky late goals in two previous write-ups, resulting in losses, we can be confident that West Brom does not have the capabilities that Chelsea and Man City have to repeat a similar fate.
West Brom has been very difficult to watch this season. They implore a very defensive style, and often are unable to hold teams off the scoreboard. On top of that, they have one of the worst attacking threats in the league, ranking last in the EPL with a mere two goals to start the season. Through their first four games, West Brom have posted 37%, 38%, 36% and 41% possession percentages while facing one of the leagues easiest schedules thus far. While some teams don't worry about possession and strike on the counter, West Brom does not have the talent to pull off such a tactic. Instead they rely on the odd lob into the box and hope to get a lucky header in order to produce offense.
Dimitri Payet returned to play his first full match of the season last week and the Hammer's offense was completely transformed to last season when they were a top five outfit in goals scored. Payet was able to deliver ball after ball into the box and Antonio was able to convert two of them for goals early in the first half. With Payet roaming the field at full health, West Ham has a chance to score every time they enter the final third. Look for West ham to dominate the ball and play much of the match in West Brom's territory.
The Hammers have only lost once to West Brom in their last 11 Premier League matches. While seven of those matches have been draws, West Ham has come away with six points in their last two trips to the Hawthornes and this situation sets up nicely for a third consecutive victory. Being an underdog to such an inferior opponent will definitely motivate the Hammers, however, the combination of the loss to Watford at home last weekend as a significant favorite, and the reminder that they bowed out of the Europa league before the group play got underway this week without them will surely bring out the very best effort from the much superior squad. Sometimes the situation calls for a bigger risk, thus we will take a shot at a huge tag for a Hammers win, in a match that they have at least a 50% chance to get all three points from
Nelly
James Madison + over North Carolina
James Madison has posted 136 points in a 2-0 start for a squad that is currently #8 in the FCS polls. Last season the Dukes went 9-3 tying for the CAA title before losing a tough 44-38 FCS Playoff game against Colgate. Recall last season James Madison won at SMU in its lone game vs. the FBS level and also beat Albany soundly last season, the team that beat Buffalo earlier this season. The worst loss of last season came by 10 points vs. Richmond, the team that beat the ACC's Virginia in Week 1 and James Madison will take its best shot at an ACC squad this week. In 2015 former North Carolina head coach Everett Withers was the head coach of James Madison before leaving to take that position at Texas State but current head coach Mike Houston has maintained a great offense so far this season and after being the head coach at The Citadel the past two seasons, getting a shot at one of the region's FBS powers will be a big opportunity. North Carolina has split two big games to open the season, falling vs. Georgia and beating Atlanta in a pair of games that were both closer than the final scores. Two huge ACC games are on deck for the Tar Heels, facing Coastal contender Pittsburgh at home next week and then heading to Tallahassee on October 1 as this could be a flat spot on the schedule. This team lacks most of the key playmakers from last season's 11-3 squad and this has often been a program with great talent but suspect focus and effort, featuring four S/U home favorite losses in four seasons under Larry Fedora. North Carolina scored the final 17 points in last week's win for a misleading 25-point victory and quarterback Mitch Trubisky hasn't been a big deep threat so far this season. Look for a motivated Dukes squad to put up a good fight this week as a heavy underdog.
Rob Vinciletti
New Mexico State vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -22
The Wildcats should win this easily. The Line has spiraled up from 18 to 22, so we will make the comp play today. They are 8-2 ats as a non conference favorite of 14 or more and catch New Mexico st off a massive upset dog win over New Mexico. The Aggies lost by 16 to a terrible Utep team and are 0-16 with just 2 spread wins vs SEC Teams. They are also in a play against system that plays against road dogs of 17 or more off a home dog win where they scored 31 or more and allowed 21 or more. They are 1-10 ats as a non conference road dog of 15 or more. New Mexico St is again without their best player in Larry Rose. Look for Kentucky to cover.
Jeff Alexander
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -7
Most people are going to look at this line and want to jump on Michigan State. Whenever a line looks too good to be true, it's usually a good sign that oddsmakers want to bait you into taking that side. I actually think the value is with Notre Dame. Michigan State is a big name, but they are way down from last year. They biggest losses coming on offense, where they lost star quarterback Conner Cook and their two best playmakers on the outside. I think the offense is going to struggle to put points on the board this season and that certainly was the case when they scored 28 points as a 39-point favorite in their 15-point opening week win against Furman. This Irish offense is one of the best in the country and can score points in a hurry. Getting this game at home only adds fuel to the fire. I look for the Spartans to struggle to keep pace and lose here by double-digits.
Matt Fargo
Georgia vs. Missouri
Play: Georgia -6½
Playing on above average teams coming off a poor effort is a favorite philosophy especially at a reasonable price. That is the case here for Georgia which barely survived a visit from Nicholls as it won by two points and had to rally to do so as favorites of 52.5 points. It was a far cry from the Bulldogs very impressive season opening win against North Carolina where they outgained the Tar Heels by 159 total yards. This is the first true road game for Georgia but a trip to Columbia will not have them intimidated. Missouri meanwhile exploded for 61 points which was a really big surprise considering the Tigers had scored just 67 points combined in its previous eight games going back to last season. But considering the offensive explosion came against Eastern Michigan, a team that allowed 42.1 ppg last season which was fifth most in the country, it may not be as surprising. The Tigers will find the going a lot tougher this week for sure. While there is not revenge planted in place here, Georgia still has not forgotten the meeting last season as it was a narrow escape in a 9-6 win at home despite winning the yardage battle by 134 total yards. Here we play against home teams in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with four or more losses in their last five games, with five or less offensive starters returning. This situation is 80-41 ATS (66.1 percent since 1992. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win while the Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.
Scott Spreitzer
UNLV vs. Central Michigan
Play: UNLV +13
We had the Rebels on these pages as a 27 point underdog at UCLA and collected the win. UNLV fell 42-21, covering the spread, but the game was actually closer than the final score indicated with UCLA leading 28-21 early in the fourth. The difference between UNLV of the last decade-plus and the Rebels we see in 2016 is the fact they play hard to the very end. HC Tony Sanchez has begun to rid the program of a losing mentality and the team believes it can contend with anyone. Starting QB and Nebraska-transfer Johnny Stanton may have struggled through the air last week, but he brings stability and a little more knowhow at the signal-caller position than UNLV has had over the last few seasons. They're strong in the trenches as evidenced by their 5 yards per carry average when the ran the football in Pasadena last Saturday. Stanton is a dual-threat and RB Lexington Thomas not only ran for 112 yards against UCLA, but has averaged 6 yards per carry through the first two games. And finally, UNLV is catching Central Michigan (we had them here last week) at the right time, fresh off the huge outright win over Oklahoma State. I'm a CMU fan, especially a fan of QB Cooper Rush, but the Chips are laying too many points in this spot in my betting opinion.
Ray Monohan
Tennessee Volunteers -27
The Volunteers welcome in the Bobcats on Saturday afternoon and they hold value laying the points here.
This is the perfect spot where Tennessee can wear down an opponent. This is by far the most physical game the Bobcats will have seen through their first 3 weeks.
Something just clicked for Tennessee in the 2nd quarter last week down 14-0. This team finally figured out with tempo and allowing Joshua
Dobbs get out wide and have the option to run or pass is where this team can find success.
Look for Dobbs to really use his feet to open his pass game. By forcing the OU defense to stack the box and stop the run will open the pass down field.
Some trends to note. Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
The Volunteers will get out early here and wear out the Bobcats, as they roll at home here, covering the number.
Joseph D'Amico
Ohio State vs. Oklahoma
Play: Ohio State
Oklahoma has one of the toughest schedules in the nation which is proven once again here. The team bounced back from an embarrassing Week 1 loss to Houston to trounce UL Monroe LW. But I feel that this victory may have given the Sooners a false sense of confidence. The new players that have stepped in, just haven't quite grasped the schemes just yet. If the team has any real weakness, it is facing dual-threat QB's. Well, in comes, JT Barrett and the explosive Buckeyes offense. Ohio State has won 18 straight road games and have Urban Meyer, who is one of the best in the nation at game planning and preparation. Baker Mayfield will be under fire here by blitzing, blitzing, blitzing and then have to deal with a secondary that can intercept the ball, all too well. The Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS their L6 vs. Big 12 foes, 8-3 ATS their L11 non-Conference games, and 40-16-1 ATS their L57 games played on the road. The Sooners are 1-5 ATS their L6 home games vs. teams with a winning road record, 0-4 ATS their L4 non-Conference games, and 1-4 ATS their L5 games played overall.
Jack Jones
Alabama vs. Ole Miss
Play: Alabama -11
There’s a reason Nick Saban got after his team and coaching staff during and after a 38-10 win over Western Kentucky last week. It wasn’t because they played poorly, it was to simply get their attention heading into their biggest game of the season this week against Ole Miss.
Indeed, Saban has been fuming over the past two seasons at the fact that they have lost to the Rebels. He wants revenge on Ole Miss, and he’s going to make his players want it just as badly. Look for a big performance from the Crimson Tide this week as they try and embarrass the Rebels in the process and easily cover this 11-point spread.
While Ole Miss has won the last two meetings, the Crimson Tide basically gave them away. They outgained the Rebels 396-323 on the road in 2014 and lost 17-23. Then, they outgained the Rebels 503-433 last year in a 37-43 home loss. They lost the turnover battle 5-0 last year and only lost by six points, which shows how much superior they really were than the Rebels.
After a 46-point win over USC as 13.5-point favorites and a 28-point win over Western Kentucky as 27-point favorites, it’s clear that Alabama is dominant again this season. It outgained a very talented USC team by 271 total yards and held them to 6 points and 194 total yards. It then outgained an underrated Western Kentucky team by 236 yards and held its high-powered offense to only 239 yards.
While Alabama is just as good as last year, Ole Miss clearly is not. The Rebels lost three first-round picks to the NFL and only brought back 10 starters this season. They blew a 22-point lead against Florida State and lost 34-45, and Alabama is better than Florida State.
More concerning may have been Ole Miss’ 38-13 win over Wofford last week. The Rebels were 44-point favorites in that game, so they failed to cover the spread by 19 points. They also only outgained Wofford by 111 total yards in the game. They gave up 233 rushing yards to the Terriers, so you can just imagine what this Alabama rushing attack is going to do to the Rebels Saturday.
Alabama is 46-26 ATS in its last 72 road games off a home win. Saban is 35-20 ATS off a home win as the coach of Alabama. Saban is 11-3 ATS in road games in the first month of the season as the coach of the Crimson Tide. Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The Rebels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Since that 2014 road loss at Ole Miss, Alabama has gone 4-0 on the road against ranked opponents. Not only have they won these games, they've won them by a score of 32.5 to 10.5, or an average of 22.0 points per game.
Sam Martin
Mississippi St vs. LSU
Play: Under 45
Interesting matchup this Saturday between Mississippi State and LSU. Both of these teams rely heavily on the rush and don't offer much in the passing game (outside of play-action), but both defenses are built to stop the run while susceptible in their secondaries. We don't believe either team will change their offensive identity, leading to a low-scoring, run-and-punt type of game. Look for both teams to play the field position battle, and for the clock to continue to move. First one to 20 points wins!