Teddy Covers
Oregon vs. Nebraska
Play: Oregon +3½
If you look at the final scores of Nebraska’s first two games, this pointspread might make sense. After all, the Huskers are coming off back-2-back ‘dominating’ wins and covers against Fresno and Wyoming over the last two weeks, covering as a home favorite for the first times since a Week 2 win over South Alabama last year.
There’s only one problem with that assumption. Nebraska didn’t dominate either game. Both blowouts were completely fraudulent. And Oregon’s team speed will be highly problematic for a Cornhuskers defense that hasn’t seen playmakers like these in year – they haven’t faced Ohio State or Michigan in Big 10 play in either of the past two seasons.
In Week 1, Nebraska entered the fourth quarter against Freson clinging to a 21-10 lead, but a pair of Bulldogs interceptions set up the Huskers down the stretch as they punched in three unanswered touchdowns in the final stanza to win by 28. Last week, the only reason Nebraska was up by a TD heading into the fourth quarter was because of a pick six against Wyoming. But the Cowboys four fourth quarter drives went like this: fumble, interception, interception, interception and Nebraska scored four unanswered fourth quarter TD’s as a result.
That’s a 50-0 Huskers fourth quarter run-out against inferior competition in their first two games, not a dominant effort from start to finish. And Oregon, unlike Wyoming and Fresno, isn’t primed to give the game away late.
The numbers don’t lie. Oregon was an underdog four times in Mark Helfrich’s first season on the job. They went 4-0 ATS in those games, winning three of them in ‘outright upset’ fashion. The only loss came by a field goal against a 12 win Michigan State squad.
And while the Ducks did graduate a fair bit of talent this past offseason, make no mistake about it – Oregon still is loaded with offensive playmakers and speedy skill position talent. QB Dakota Prukop might be an FCS transfer, but he’s an FCS transfer loaded with talent, speed and experience, a multi-year starter at Montana State. Prukop was a first team FCS All American last year and his 6-0 TD-INT ratio gives me confidence supporting him in a hostile environment in Lincoln on Saturday.
The betting markets seem fixated by the fact that Nebraska head coach Mike Riley faced Oregon every year when Riley coached in the PAC-12. It’s surely worth noting that Riley lost the last seven matchups in that series, with five of those losses coming in blowout fashion, by 17 points or more. Riley’s defense didn’t hold Oregon below 36 points in any of those games
Jimmy Boyd
Mississippi St vs. LSU
Play: LSU -13½
This might seem like a big spread for LSU to be laying. The Tigers haven’t exactly looked dominant in their first two games. They lost outright as a double-digit favorite to Wisconsin. They then only won by 21 as a 30-point favorite against Jacksonville State.
Clearly the Tigers were overvalued coming into the season, but now is the time to jump on the LSU bandwagon. I believe the fact that Mississippi State covered last week is helping this line. Had they lost that game or barely won, we could be looking at a spread of 17 to 20 points.
Simply put, the Bulldogs are way down this year. Beating a bad Gamecocks team at home doesn’t change my view of them. They just don’t recruit well enough to replace what they lost from last year. Most notably quarterback Dak Prescott, who is arguably the best player they have had.
Without Prescott, the last two games in this series wouldn’t have been close. He had 268 yards passing and 105 rushing in their upset in LSU in 2014. Last year he had 335 yards passing and a score on the ground.
I just don’t see the Bulldogs being able to generate enough offense to keep this one close. Keep in mind LSU won last year’s meeting with only 71 yards passing. That was with Brandon Harris as the starter. He was benched in last week’s game against Jacksonville State. Danny Etling replaced him and all signs point to him starting on Saturday.
I love that LSU is finally moving past Harris, who has been awful as a starter. I believe Etling can give the Tigers a more balanced attack, which they needed. I also think we are going to see the team rally behind their new start, as don't think the truly believed Harris was the guy to lead them to the promise land. That’s going to open up more running lanes for Leonard Fournette. Not that it would matter here. He had 159 yards and 3 scores last year against the Bulldogs with no passing threat.
The other big key here is that this game has a little extra meaning for LSU. The Tigers don’t lose at home often (64-9 since 2006). They haven’t forgot what happened two years ago. With this being a night game at Tiger Stadium, I think it could get ugly in a hurry.
Mississippi State is just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games after allowing 7 points or less in the 1st half of their last 2 straight games.
Dave Price
Temple vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -8½
Penn State had won 31 straight meetings with Temple before losing on the road to the Owls last season. Now the Nittany Lions will be out for revenge, and they get them at home this time around. It's clear that the Nittany Lions are improved this season, especially offensively after scoring 33 points against Kent State and 39 against a very good Pitt defense. Temple lost a lot of talent from last year's team, and that was evident in a 13-28 home loss to Army as 14-point favorites. The Owls only gained 251 yards in that game and gave up 329 rushing yards to Army alone. Saquon Barkley, who scored 5 touchdowns against Pitt last week, should have a huge day on the ground. New QB Trace McSorley has looked good, completing 60.6 percent of his passes for 541 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT in his two starts. Temple QB PJ Walker is only 23-of-49 for 292 yards, 3 TDs, 4 INTs and 6 sacks in his two games. The offensive line is a mess, and last year's leading rusher Jahad Thomas (1,262 yards, 17 TD in 2015) is nursing a dislocated thumb that has kept him out of the first two games. Thomas is questionable to return and had to leave practice this week after re-aggravating the thumb injury.
Will Rogers
Buffalo vs. Nevada
Pick: Nevada
Buffalo: The Bulls made bowl trips in 2008 (school’s first-ever) and 2013 but the previous 10 years have seen them go 47-75 (.385). Head coach Lance Leipold took over last season and went 5-7 and came into 2016 wit just three returning offensive starters but eight on defense. Buffalo hasn’t settled on a QB yet, although Jackson played more than Rohach in the team's home-opening 22-16 loss to Albany. The duo had just one TD pass in 34 combined attempts with three INTs, while passing for 177 yards. Losing to a FCS school in a home opener is no way to start a season.
Nevada: The Wolf Pack allowed 444 yards of total offense last week but that came against Notre Dame and QB DeShone Kizer, who is beginning to look like a first-round draft pick. Getting outclassed by Notre Dame 39-10 is nothing to worry about but eking out a 30-27 (OT) win over Cal Poly is a source of concern. QB Tyler Stewart is a so-so player but RB Butler could have a breakout game (note: he had 1,345 yards last year).
The pick: Buffalo lost to Albany but the Bulls did win the battle of total offense, gaining 403 yards to the Great Danes' 238 yards. However, losing at home to an FCS school speaks for itself. The Bulls are making their first trip to Nevada since the 2004 season and this visit to Reno matches the longest the Bulls have ever traveled for a road game. Nevada has become a bowl regular (10 trips since 2005) and opened this season 42-19 SU at Mackay Stadium the previous 10 years.
MMA OddsBreaker
Belal Muhammed to win by decision
Belal Muhammad had an action-packed UFC debut, losing a decision to Alan Jouban on short notice. He showcased tremendous heart in that fight, bouncing back from repeated knockdowns to win the third round. This time around, he should be the superior mixed martial artist compared to Augusto Montano, who hasn't fought since losing a decision to Cathal Pendred over a year ago. Montano has some power, but that's about it. As long as Muhammad avoids getting clocked with a big shot, he should be able to dance circles around Montano and win a decision. A TKO or submission are unlikely due to his lack of major knockout power.
Dwayne Bryant
New Mexico at Rutgers
Play: New Mexico +6
After drilling South Dakota at home, 48-21, the Lobos took to the road to face their in-state rivals at New Mexico State. That trip didn’t go as planned. The Lobos were double-digit favorites, yet lost outright to the Aggies, 32-31. New Mexico was minus two in turnovers in that one, which usually spells doom.
Rutgers opened their season as 26-point dogs at Washington. The Huskies drilled the Scarlet Knights, 48-13. Rutgers returned home and hammered Howard, 52-14. They failed to cover the 44-point spread.
What interests me is that Rutgers was only even in the turnover battle against lowly Howard. They were minus two in turnovers the week prior in Washington.
Turnovers have a huge impact in these games. New Mexico was minus two last weekend against their rivals, but plus two the week prior. I expect them to do a better job of protecting the football in this one.
Rutgers also has a much bigger home game on deck against Iowa. Off the drubbing of Howard, the Knights may get caught looking ahead to the Hawkeyes.
I also think this line is an overreaction to last weekend’s results when Rutgers pounded lowly Howard and New Mexico lost outright as double-digit chalk.
The Rutgers defense will have its hands full with New Mexico’s option attack. Lobos leading rusher Teriyon Gipson will miss this game, as he is currently in the concussion protocol. But New Mexico has several other able-bodied backs, plus a dual-threat quarterback in Austin Apodaca.
The Lobos will be hungry and focused after losing last weekend, while Rutgers may be in “fat and happy” mode and looking ahead to the Iowa game.
DAVE COKIN
LOUISIANA TECH AT TEXAS TECH
PLAY: LOUISIANA TECH +11
Louisiana Tech is catching doubles from a Texas Tech team that can’t defense anything. That’s the condensed version of why the Bulldogs should have an excellent chance to be in this game all the way.
Here’s some additional thought on this game and it mostly centers on Texas Tech. Yes, the Red Raiders have a very explosive offense and it will be a tremendous challenge for Louisiana Tech to contain that attack. But I have to question the philosophy being utilized by the Red Raiders. It’s great to race up and down the field at a breakneck pace and score lots of points. But when a defense is this bad, maybe it’s not such a great idea to force them to log so many minutes. In other words, my thought is that perhaps head coach Kliff Kingsbury should consider going a little slower on offense so that his substandard defense isn’t on the field for 37 minutes as they were last week.
This is one of the problems I have with some teams that insist on trying to play at warp speed. If the defense is unable to contain the opposition, I actually think that this style ends up being somewhat counterproductive.
Louisiana Tech is not going to show up in Lubbock in awe of facing this Big 12 opponent. The Bulldogs just missed upsetting Arkansas on the road, and a win here would be huge for Skip Holtz as he preps his team for a run at the CUSA title. I don’t see this team being the favorite to win its division, but the regular season finale at Southern Mississippi has a good chance to be very meaningful as far as the division crown is concerned.
I made the number on this game Texas Tech -9, so there appears to be a little value on the underdog side. As it happens, I’ve already got a very deep Saturday college card, so I had to cut it off at some point. But I will be watching this game for a potential halftime wager. If Louisiana Tech focuses on running the football and trying to sap a weak Texas Tech run defense, I think there’s a real chance they could be the stronger team down the stretch. Unfortunately, I don’t have access to the Holtz game plan, and if he decides to go pass-heavy, it could work against his team’s chances. Louisiana Tech plus the points is nevertheless the free opinion, and I’ll return tomorrow with a personal service NFL play for Sunday.
Martin Griffiths
Norwich City vs. Nottingham Forest
Play: Draw +235
Both these teams are in decent form at the current time and a draw looks the best pick here.
Forest are unbeaten in their last four championship games, they have won all their three home games and come into this game on the back of two away draws.
Norwich have lost just the once all season, they are already in a play off spot and will be pushing for automatic promotion this season, they are considered one of the favourites to do just that, they come into this game on the back of two consecutive home wins.
So, we have a team that has won all its three home games and drawn its last two recent games against a team considered one of the better teams in the division who are looking for their third championship win in a row.
If this game was played at Norwich I would have gone with them all day long, but it is not, it is in Nottingham and I cannot ignore their home record and recent form.
I cannot see Norwich losing, but I cannot see them winning either and therefore the draw is the logical choice here.
Kyle Hunter
Texas A&M vs. Auburn
Play: Under 54½
The Texas A&M Aggies and the Auburn Tigers are usually known for their high powered offenses, but I believe both of these teams are better on defense than offense this season.
Texas A&M brought in John Chavis to be their defensive coordinator before last season, and he did an amazing job. The Aggies allowed 451 yards per game two years ago and only 380 last year. They allowed 28.1 points per game two years ago and only 22 points per game last year. They returned 7 starters this year, and this unit is even more talented.
Auburn's Carl Lawson was out last year with an injury, and the defense wasn't the same without him. Lawson is the superstar of this unit. Auburn has looked great in the first two weeks of the season on defense. They only allowed 19 points against Clemson and 14 against Arkansas State.
I'm not confident in White at quarterback for Auburn. I don't think he fits the offense well here. Trevor Knight is inconsistent for Texas A&M.
The under is 6-0-1 in the Aggies last 7 games. The under is 8-2-1 in the Tigers last 11 home games. Take the under in this one.
Chip Chirimbes
San Diego State vs. Northern Illinois
Play: Northern Illinois +11
The Aztecs broke a few 'wise-guys' hearts (mine included) last week allowing the Cal Bears to score in the final minute for the back-door cover. Northern Illinois will be hard pressed with already weak running game (ave 3.7 ypc) without quarterback Hare moving an offense that averages 400 yards. San Diego State has balance running for 252 yards rushing and 210 yards passing but will face a tough who who has won 10 straight as home underdogs.
Larry Ness
Maryland vs. Central Florida
Pick: Maryland
Maryland’s first year in the Big Ten was fine, going 4-4 in conference play and finishing 7-6 after a bowl loss. However, the team was 1-7 in league play last year, winning its regular season finale at Rutgers, ending a 3-9 season. That ended the Randy Edsall era and DJ Durkin was hired, giving him his first-ever head coaching job (note: Durkin was named interim head coach for Florida's bowl game after the previous head coach, stepping in for Will Muschamp, and led Florida to a 28–20 victory in the 2015 Birmingham Bowl against East Carolina).
The Terps have opened 2-0 with QB Hills being efficient (22 of 37 for 336 yards with three TDs and 0 INTs) and the running game showing depth and strength. Six different players have scored at least one TD while freshman Lorenzo Harrison (131 yards rushing) and senior Trey Edmunds (126) lead the way for a team averaging 277.0 YPG on 6.0 YPC. Maryland has yet to turn the ball over in a pair of victories and can equal its win total from 2015 with a victory over UCF, which is also turning the page with a first-year coach in Scott Frost.
The Golden Knights went 0-12 last year but ended a 13-game losing streak with a home opening 38-0 win over South Carolina St. However, the team was outclassed at Michigan last Saturday, losing 51-14. Starting QB Justin Holman suffered a hamstring injury against Michigan and was replaced by fellow senior Nick Patti. The duo combined to complete 6 of 22 passes for just 56 yards, although UCF did rush for 275 yards. That total may be a little skewed, as RB Killins was able to break off an 87-yard TD run when UCF was down 31-0.
Holman’s status is uncertain for this game and Patti would replace him. One of Durkin’s strengths is his recruiting and Florida is fertile soil. After winning at FIU last weekend a second straight win here in Orlando would be “good advertising.” That means a full focus here for Maryland. As for UCF, if one were to take away that 87-yard TD run, the Golden Knights averaged 3.6 yard per play. Maryland is no Michigan but it’s no South Carolina St, either. Lay the points.
Joe D'Amico
Fresno St at Toledo
Play: Toledo
Toledo is rolling with big wins and covers over Arkansas State and Maine to bring the team up to a 14-2-2 ATS run. QB, Logan Woodside has over 700 YP, a 64.3% CR, and a 7/1 TD/INT ratio. Fresno State took beating in 2015 on the road vs. winning home teams, going 0-2 both SU and ATS and already got smoked by Nebraska, 43-10. The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS their L8 games played on the road, 0-4 ATS their L4 non-Conference games, and 3-9 ATS their L12 games played overall.
John Ryan
Hawaii vs Arizona
Play: Arizona -23
Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Hawaii is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons; 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Rainbow Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Rainbow Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Rainbow Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Rainbow Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Fundamental Discussion Points Hawaii's senior quarterback Ikaika Woolsey has plenty of experience but has struggled with efficiency. He has thrown 23 touchdown passes in his four-year career with the Rainbows but has been intercepted 27 times. The Wildcats have outscored their opponents 44-9 in the second half this season. Just remember Hawaii has allowed 50 points per game so far this season. Take Arizona Wildcats.
King Creole
North Texas / Florida Over 50
Game Two takes us down here to our gorgeous Sunshine State as the SEC Florida Gators host the North Texas Eagles. The game doesn't figure to be too gorgeous however. Not with Florida favored by a massive -36 points in this game…. while the OU line is still a LOW (for College) 50 points. Both of these teams are pretty strong OVER teams in the first month of the season. Gators: 8-2-1 O/U in September… Eagles: 8-2 O/U in September. Florida's offense finally BROKE THROUGH against Kentucky last week. They snapped a string last week of 10 straight games scoring UNDER 30 points with a 45-point outburst. The Gators gained 564 yards of offense, their most in an SEC game since 2001. Just what the (OVER) Doctor ordered. On the flip side, all we basically need from the traveling Eagles for our OVER to cash is slightly more than ONE touchdown. And besides, College Football BIG favorites of -35 or more points (FLORIDA)… with a 'short' OU line of 50 < points…. have gone OVER the Total 83% of the time in the last six seasons.
The OU line in this game opened at 49.5 points. As of Friday afternoon, it has risen to 50 points. Based on the current spread and OU line, the predicted final score is: Florida 43 - NorthTexas 7.
Our College Football database simulations and models differ significantly. The average projected score that comes up is:
FLORIDA GATORS 45 - NORTH TEXAS EAGLES 10
Tony George
Iowa State vs. TCU
Play: TCU -24.5
It is the perfect storm for Iowa State, they better batten down the hatches as they travel to Ft. Worth today. TCU is off a frustrating and agonizing home OT loss to Arkansas, in which the were a 7 point favorite last week. Iowa State meantime was busy getting waxed in Iowa City by in state rival Iowa in an emotional game, and now travel this week and faced a pissed off Horned Frogs team who clearly have a vastly better team with quick strike capability on offense led by QB Kenny Hill, a transfer from Texas AM. The Cyclones do not have the offense to trade punches on the scoreboard.
TCU only returned 2 starters on offense from last years high octane attack led by QB Boiykin who now is a Seattle Seahawk, and the learning curve has been slow to develop as evidenced by last weeks debacle. Iowa State has an entirely new coaching staff in place and last week the Cyclones got outgained 435-291 in a 45-3 blowout loss to a good Iowa team. In all essence I expect the same thing to happen to ISU today, as TCU will not overlook this game off a loss and look to gain their footing back as a Big 12 frontrunner.
All things considered, it is rare I will lay a big number in a conference opener, but TCU should wipe the floor with Iowa State Saturday, and at home in a foul mood against a team who does not have the talent in place to compete for 4 quarters, I will lay the number and call this one a blowout, and trust me, TCU will keep the hammer down and pout some points up in this one. It would not surprise me to see TCU with 500+ yards in this one and a 30 point win margin, willing to lay the number here.