Brandon Lee
Cardinals vs. Giants
Play: Giants -124
San Francisco is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Cardinals on Saturday. The Giants have already taken the first two games of this series in blowout fashion. They won 6-2 on Thursday and 8-2 on Friday. I look for them to keep it going with another comfortable victory tonight. San Fran is going to send out Jeff Samardzija, who has pitched well at home and is throwing the ball much better of late. I think he follows form from the last two starters and keeps this Cardinals offense in check. St Louis will counter with Mike Leake, who has struggled on the road with a 4.64 ERA and 1.374 WHIP in 15 starts. Leake also has a not so great 4.50 career ERA in 9 starts against the Giants.
Chase Diamond
South Florida vs. Syracuse
Play: South Florida -13½
This game has the 2-0 South Florida and the 1-1 Syracuse Orange who got destroyed last week by Louisville 62-28 at home. Their Defense is really having issues and I think the line tells it all today as South Florida on the road is favored by this much. I think a'lot has to do with big time threat Valdes-Scantling look for him to have a monster day. Only 44% of the public are betting this road favorite but the line continues to scare people into going with Syracuse. South Florida is 6-0 SU and ATS in dome games since 1992 and they are coming in scoring massive points take them today minus the line to blow out Syracuse.
ASA
Brewers +1½ +101
The Cubs rallied for two in the 9th to tie yesterday's game and then got the walk-off win on a Montero homer in the 10th. The Cubs already planned to celebrate their division title after the game no matter what but certainly this added to the festivities of the celebration. As a result, we expect this to be a tough spot for the Cubs this afternoon and there is great line value with the ability to lay "normal juice" on the Brewers and yet have them at +1.5 runs on the run line. Zach Davies gets the start for Milwaukee and the Brewers are 12-9 in his last 21 starts and 4 of those defeats came by a single run. This means that at +1.5 runs, Milwaukee holds a 17-4 record in Davies last 21 starts! The Cubs will have Jake Arrieta on the mound but he has been struggling in recent outings and this includes giving up 5 earned earned runs in less than 6 innings in his start against the Brewers last month. Taking a look at his last 5 starts overall since mid-August, Arrieta had a fantastic outing at San Diego but, other than that, he compiled an uncharacteristic 6.17 ERA in the other 4 starts! With the Cubs still weary from all the celebrating yesterday the Brewers getting +1.5 runs at nearly even money on the RUN LINE is the play here Saturday afternoon.
Zack Cimini
Virginia vs. Connecticut
Pick: Connecticut
After a dazzling three-touchdown deficit comeback against Navy, the Huskies fell just short of a 2-0 record. With no timeouts the Huskies could not get into the end zone from the midshipmen's one-yard line. Mentally it does not get any harder to adjust as a team than a loss as such. Yet, the Huskies get a non-conference opponent in Virginia that may be just as shaken. They're 0-2 and have surrendered an average of over forty points a game. Grab UConn to respond from last week's gut-wrenching loss and send the Cavaliers to 0-3.
Chris Jordan
They're lower in the betting rotation, but kick off earlier in the day, my early free pick is on the UNLV Rebels plus the points against the Central Michigan Chippewas.
Now, understand that I am not ranking this too high, because the Rebels have already lost a little value, being bet down from +13 to +11. I see some randoms 12s out there, and an occasional 10', but I'm sticking with +11 here.
Here's the deal, this UNLV team is not the same we've seen stumble and bumble over itself in years past. The Rebels covered a big number at UCLA last week, and they just couldn't hang inside single digits, after closing the gap to within striking distance late in the game.
But the Rebels have one of the best receivers in the nation, and they have a lot of motivation coming into this contest. The program just received a $10 million donation from the former owners of the UFC - the Fertittas - and coach Tony Sanchez will have his troops prepared to show why UNLV is becoming a football school.
Take the Rebels plus all you can get in this game.
1* UNLV
My second free pick (an earlier kickoff is lower below) is on the Michigan Wolverines.
And I'm not getting long-winded on this one for you, I'm keeping this early kickoff simple, because it's real easy: powerhouse versus an unmatched team.
I respect the fact the Colorado Buffaloes are from the Pac 12, and have outscored their first two foes, 100-14. But today in Ann Arbor they're meeting a team much different than Colorado State or Idaho State.
The Buffs are now taking on a team that many believe could be in the College Football Playoff if it runs the table through Big 10 play.
Michigan has outscored its first two opponents - Hawai'i and Central Florida - 100-17, so there is something in common between these two. Both have beaten up on weaklings.
Colorado has run for 260 and 262 yards in its first two games, so I know its gameplan will be to run it down Michigan's throat, drain the clock and keep the ball out of the Wolverines' hands. But don't sleep on Michigan's defense, which has nabbed four turnovers in two games - two interceptions returned for touchdowns in the opener and two fumbles recovered in the second game.
Sorry Buffs fans, I just don't see how Colorado will be able to push the Wolverines for too long. Play Michigan as the free pick today.
5* MICHIGAN
Brad Wilton
Comp play release for Saturday will be to lay the big lumber at Camp Randall Stadium this afternoon when the Badgers of Wisconsin play host to the Panthers of Georgia State.
The Panthers appear to be in for a long season based on the results of the first two weeks, as State has lost by 10 to MAC rep Ball State, and by a whopping 34 points to Air Force! Now they step up the ladder for a date with Big Ten heavy Wisconsin, and it figures to be another lopsided loss.
Paul Chryst's team followed their upset win over LSU with a 54-10 pounding of the Zips of Akron. In that victory, the Badgers rumbled for over 5 yards per carry on the ground. With Georgia State having just yielded near 400 yards rushing in their first pair of losses, and having allowed quite close to 6 yards per carry for the opposition, I can see the Badgers just running it down the Panthers throats!
Wisconsin does have a conference opening date with Michigan State on-deck, but even with this price a tad "steep", my call is to lay it as Wisconsin does find a way to get on top of it by the end of the afternoon.
Bucky Badger all day long, y'all!
3* WISCONSIN
Brad Wilton
Like the points and Missouri this Saturday night in Columbia, as Mizzou plays in double-revenge against a Georgia team that beat them only 9-6 last season, and 34-0 the season before in Columbia!
UGA didn't exactly look all that convincing last week when they allowed 50+ point underdog Nichols State to take them right down to the bitter end before new coach Kirby Smart's team gritted out a 26-24 victory.
The Tigers were able to follow a loss at West Virginia with a 61-21 win over lowly Eastern Michigan, and while Georgia is a major step up, the Tigers do have the defense that can contain the Bulldogs running game, and this will be Jacob Eason's first true road start against a conference foe.
I can see this one going down to the wire with a late field goal deciding it.
Take Missouri to stay close.
3* MISSOURI
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is N.C. State to rebound from their back-and-forth road loss at East Carolina with a win at home over Old Dominion.
The Monarchs were the double-digit underdog last week at Appalachian State, and failed in their 7-31 loss to the Mountaineers. That means that ODU has now failed in each of their last 6 tries when listed as the double-digit underdog!
The Wolfpack will not play again until October 1st, so expect State to let it rip in this home game.
N.C. State won a 38-14 decision last year in Norfolk, and they are now 5-1 against the spread their last 6 when laying the double-digits.
Only a matter of time before the 'Pack starts to run away and hide from the limited Monarchs.
Lay it with N.C. State!
4* N.C. STATE
Scott Delaney
On the heels of last night's College Football free winner, on Utah State, I am coming strong with another Mountain West squad, as I like Wyoming over UC Davis. The number isn't one you're going to see the Cowboys lay often, but that's what tells me the Pokes should win big tonight.
This is the same team whose quarterback - Josh Allen - was named Mountain West offensive player of the week after his strong pay in a win over Northern Illinois. Last week, the redshirt sophomore gun slinger lost to Nebraska.
This week it's time for redemption, against a defense worse than NIU and Nebraska. Allen and the Cowboys are going to light up FCS foe UC Davis, a team picked near the bottom of the Big Sky Conference this preseason.
The Aggies are 1-1 overall after a loss at Oregon and a win over NAIA powerhouse Southern Oregon, which has been in the championship game the last two seasons. And make note, despite the loss, Southern Oregon's offense shredded the Aggies' defense for 653 total yards and 35 points.
Now in Laramie, I don't think UC Davis is going to be prepared for the Cowboys or the altitude.
Look for plenty of offensive balance from the Pokes, and a staunch defense that will stymie the Aggies.
Lay the three TDs.
3* WYOMING
Frank Jordan
Florida State vs. Louisville
Play: Louisville +1
Both of these teams come in at 2-0 and Florida State is ranked #2 while Louisville is #10. Thus far Florida State has beaten Ole Mills who was ranked 11th and last week hung 52 on Charleston Southern while allowing just eight points. Louisville won their opener 70-17 over Charlotte and won last week in their first game against ACC foes beating Syracuse on the road 62-28. This game is the biggest conference test they will face thus far against a top 10 team. Last year at FSU, Louisville lost to 11th ranked Seminoles 41-21. FSU played just three games last season against ranked opponents two on the road and one at a neutral site with a 1-2 result in those three games. Louisville, also played three ranked teams and did not fair well in those game losing all three. Louisville started their 2015 with three straight losses, but won eight of their next 10 to finish 8-5 including a bowl win over Texas A&M. FSU went 10-3 in 2015, but lost in a bowl game to Houston 38-24 to have a bitter end to an otherwise good year. This year the game is in Louisville and they are strong team at home, but there is a great passion they will be playing in honor of Muhammad Ali, a Louisville native, and will have special jerseys for him.
SPORTS WAGERS
Georgia St +35 over WISCONSIN
When mining for value in the numbers, we look for contests that have the greatest propensity to lure takers into a situation many may ordinarily not buy into. Such is the notion of the Wisconsin Badgers spotting over five touchdowns to any opponent. Wisconsin came in to the 2016 season as an unranked team in the AP Preseason Polls with a hazy ceiling and floor within their conference. We knew two things about Wisky, they enjoy playing defense and they love to run the football. To the credit of the Badgers, they have been very good at those two things, as they have continuously produced top-tier rushing attacks and defensive figures in recent years. Regardless, there is a frenzy surrounding the Badgers. Their rise in the polls combined with their undefeated mark has caused a commotion in this market and the reaction thereto. Wisconsin’s stunning 16-14 victory against an apparently overhyped LSU team is the prime mover. Let’s not forget that the Bayou Bengals were a perfect match-up for Wisky, as they do things in very similar fashion.
Wisconsin, in light of its recent achievements may find themselves in such a situation against Georgia State. The Panthers on paper look like a snack to the Badgers and there is no question that Wisconsin has a 99.99% chance of winning this contest. Sure, Wisconsin may have ran buckshot all over Akron last week, covering with breathing room but that is not saying much. If Wisconsin had lost to LSU, the price would have been cheaper on the Badgers and who knows how they would have approached the Zips altogether. Nevertheless, the specter of Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa malingers on their schedule in the four games following this encounter. Three of these four pivotal contests are on the road so you have to imagine the Badgers are certainly fixated on the rigorous docket that lay ahead of them. The gravity of these fixtures is enormous, as it will certainly determine the fate of the Badgers’ 2016-17 Big Ten and maybe College Football Playoff implications. Wisconsin will likely approach this contest with the utmost care and caution, as they prepare for games of more consequence. Given the amount of points offered on the table here combined with what’s on deck for the Badgers, thus becomes the prefect spot to cash in on inflated points.
Georgia/MIZZOU Under 54½ =
In the 2015 meeting between these SEC East foes, the Tigers and Dawgs combined to score a total of 15 points in a contest that was morose to watch for even the most eager Missouri and Georgia fans. Both teams looked terrible on offense, but each defensive unit shined brightly in the outing. This year both offensive units have already experienced turbulence.
For the Dawgs, they were very close to earning the title of being on the receiving end of the greatest upset in college football history when regarding the underdog in terms of points spotted. The Bulldogs narrowly escaped Nicholls State last week by a score of 26-24 despite entering the game as a 52.5 point favorite. Nevertheless, the offense looked lackluster as there is still an apparent revolving door at quarterback for Bulldog Nation, as highly touted freshman Jacob Eason continues to sharpen his teeth while senior Greyson Lambert continues to lack the combustible element to catalyze this outfit. The Dawgs rely heavily on Nick Chubb and Sony Michel in a run heavy offense that has rendered the Dawgs one-dimensional. While Chubb and Michel can score even with the heat on them, it is hard to imagine a unit of this nature going off for big points if defenses are focused solely on the duo and conceive ways to curtail them at the least.
Mizzou enters off a 61-21 win against Eastern Michigan but again it is safe to presume that the Eagles defense does not stack up to that of the Dawgs, who last year boasted the best passing defense in America. No statistic shows the potential trouble in Missouri’s offensive proficiency by virtue of the fact they could only score 11 points against West Virginia, a team that has a reputation for being quite accommodating to opposing offenses. When you look at Missouri’s offense outside of last week’s non-impressive win against EMU, the Tigers have scored above 13 points just once since October 3, 2015. For the Dawgs they are averaging around 30 points per game in spite of their troubles but nevertheless, if both teams have a routine day at the office, the total expected here will be nowhere near where the market entails.
Colorado +18 over MICHIGAN
As long as Michigan continues to win games and do so according to expectations, the premium to take the Wolverines will be at the maximum. Colorado enters this game at 2-0 but their body of work speaks for itself. The Buffs kicked off their 2016 campaign with a thrashing of intrastate rival Colorado State. The Buffs were spotting just a touchdown after many expressed a lack of faith in this club when they embarked on a five-game skid to culminate their 2015 efforts, finishing at 4-9. Colorado quickly showed they are a much different animal compared to last year. The Buffalos would win 44-7 and then follow up this result with a 56-7 dismantling of FCS Idaho State last Saturday. While some may say Colorado should have won that game big anyhow, the Buffalos again exceeded expectations as they covered a 45-point cushion with room to spare. CU’s defense is filled to the brim with experienced starters and upperclassmen and their maturity and evolution have seamlessly transitioned to the field. Senior quarterback Sefo Liufau has also had many snaps under center and when he is on, he can throw for 500 yards in a game. That won’t happen here but Michigan’s offense may be hard pressed on its own to score three TD’s let alone cover nearly three TD’s.
Michigan has marveled audiences but who have they beat up on? A jet-lagged Hawaii team returning from Australia and a UCF team that did not win one game in 2015? Colorado is a huge step up in competition and yet so many think Michigan can easily dispatch this Power Five opponent with ease by virtue of the fact that Michigan has had the hype machine and the results to solidify their might. However, the victims of the Wolverines are small fries compared to what is coming Michigan’s way this here. There's a totally different feel around this Colorado program in Year 4 under Mike MacIntyre. The 2016 Buffs have a belief and confidence that was missing from recent editions, and for good reason: This team is older, wiser, bigger, faster, stronger, more athletic and deeper than any since the last Colorado team to play in the postseason -- an Independence Bowl loser to Nick Saban's first Alabama squad back in 2007. The Buffs are 2-0 against the spread, outscoring their first two foes 100-14 and outgaining them by 854 yards. An upset is also possible.
UCLA -3½ over BYU
Last week the UCLA Bruins failed to cover a four touchdown spread at home to UNLV much to the chagrin of Bruins’ backers. After the Bruins went up 21 early in the fourth quarter they weren't able to score again. Many watched as UCLA's sophomore quarterback Josh Rosen struggled and as a result, his stock is way down. Rosen was once considered a Heisman contender but those dreams have been dashed, as he's thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season. These two teams played last year in L.A. and it was a thriller that saw the Bruins rally down 10 in the fourth quarter to win it 24-23. The Cougars defense made life miserable for Rosen in that game so this may appear to be a difficult matchup for the Bruins. We don’t think so.
This is a tough spot for the Cougars. They played the game of their lives last Saturday in prime time against their biggest rival, Utah and had a chance to tie it late. BYU Coach Kalani Sitake used his fancy coach math and chose to go for two and the win rather than play it safe and force overtime and he's taken some heat for it all week. Some in the media have even said that the Cougars should be 2-0 coming into this game with UCLA but that could not be further from the truth. Sitake knew his team was on the ropes and that two-point conversion was their best chance to win because they were not likely going to outgun the Utes in overtime. BYU won the turnover battle by two, they also got every bounce and still needed a game ending touchdown drive just to tie it. After losing an emotional game like that on the road, it might be asking a lot for the Cougars to recover from that a week later. Furthermore, this is not the same BYU team, either physically or mentally as the one that took the Bruins to the wire last season. Rarely do we recommend spotting road points but we will make an exception here on the undervalued visitor.
APP STATE +3½ over Miami
Don’t let Appalachian State’s 1-1 record compared to Miami’s 2-0 mark deceive you. This is the same Appalachian State team that could have easily won in Knoxville, Tennessee two weeks ago against the vaunted Tennessee Volunteers. App State lost in crushing fashion, as an overtime fumble recovered by the Volunteers in the Mountaineers’ end zone was the difference maker between another historic upset orchestrated by the Boys of Boone. Nevertheless, in spite of the anguish, the Mountaineers showed no signs of attrition in their follow up efforts against Old Dominion. App State would obliterate Old Dominion 31-7 in Boone last Saturday, compiling 415 yards of total offense against the Monarchs. The combination of Taylor Lamb and Marcus Cox were yet again instrumental in App State’s victory as Cox would find the end zone three times.
As for Miami, well, their true colors have yet to be revealed. The Hurricanes enter at 2-0 but that is not saying much when you look at who the ‘Canes have blown over. The formidable list of daunting adversaries include the ever ferocious Florida A&M Rattlers and the ensnaring Florida Atlantic Owls.. Miami has not traveled out of Coral Gables and they have yet to even play a team out of their own state. Miami’s two wins are against an FCS outfit and a much-maligned FBS team that on some days look as if they should be relegated to the FCS, so by no means should this team be considered a shoe-in for a victory on the road no less against a far better opponent in App State. The hoopla surrounding the Hurricanes’ NFL prototype quarterback Brad Kaaya combined with the hiring of former Georgia coach Mark Richt has generated the fanfare and excitement to make many believe that the ‘Canes are returning to their glory days. Saturday will be the litmus test to see if any of these proclamations have any validity. For those that need a reminder, Appalachian State is a team that is still in its hay day. The Mountaineers won 11 games last year and they have not a spec of fear in wrestling with giants like Miami. This is a team that has gone in to hostile environments and caused all types of commotion, now they get a chance at another upset bid this time on their own field in the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains. Not only can App State cover but they have a solid chance of winning this game straight-up. The Hurricane Warning for Boone can be cancelled as it is Miami that should be advised of the storm that is coming their way.
NEBRASKA -3 over Oregon
The Cornhuskers have not been dominant in college football in almost two decades. In the 90’s Nebraska was one of the premier programs in the country. It's been a rough ride ever since with the 2001 Rose Bowl being their last marquee postseason appearance. Fast forward to today and this is a program coming off a 6-7 season in its second year under Mike Riley. The same Mike Riley that went toe-to-toe with the Ducks for over a decade as the head coach of Oregon State. Riley knows Oregon’s program inside and out, as he competed against the Ducks when they were at their high-flying peak. Nebraska is 2-0 this season but the market is not putting much emphasis on two wins against two weak foes in Fresno State and Wyoming. The odds makers are.
The Oregon Ducks need no introduction here. The market is very familiar with this team, as they've become a popular choice over the last decade and a half. The Ducks constantly put up big points and they also wear the ugliest florescent uniforms we've ever seen while doing it. Mark Helfrich's crew is 2-0 coming into this game and they just blew out Virginia by 18-points but they had a 44-13 lead before calling the dogs off. This week on our sportswagers podcast we talked about trends and how utterly useless they are. Helfrich is 4-0 when his Ducks are an underdog as they are today in Nebraska. Oregon also won its last seven games against Riley's Beavers and five of those wins came by 17-points or more. While those trends may have some appeal and enticement, we stress to never put emphasis on those misleading numbers. In other words, how can a game from seven years ago have an impact on the outcome of this one? It cannot.
A ranked team getting points against an unranked foe can be defined as the odds makers dangling a carrot. While it may be tempting to take the bait, we urge otherwise. We also love that this game opened up with Nebraska being a -3½-point choice, as oppose to a 3-point choice. That is another nugget that the odds makers use to entice you into betting the wrong side. Coach Riley will be eager to prove himself against an old foe with his new team and the number here suggests that’s precisely what is going to take place. Lay the points.
Pass CFL & MLB
Christian Alexander
Texas A&M vs. Auburn
Play: Texas A&M +3.5
A&M QB Trevor Knight threw for 239 yards and a touchdown and ran for two more scores in leading his team to a huge home win vs. UCLA to start the season. Knight, a graduate transfer from Oklahoma, had a cupcake last weekend against Prairie but things will get tough in a hurry this Saturday at Auburn. If Knight can get to 20 points, I see the Aggies defense - led by Myles Garrett – to hold the Tigers in check. A 4th quarter field goal wins it!
David Banks
USC @ Stanford
Pick: USC +9
The Cardinal have won their last five games dating back to last season. Included among the five victories is a 41-22 pasting of then-No. 20 USC, it’s opponent on Saturday night. Stanford beat Kansas State 26-13 on the opening weekend of play and then had an off week to prepare for the Trojans, which recovered from their Alabama beat down with a 45-7 victory of Utah State.
Stanford is led by Heisman Trophy contender Christian McCaffrey who began the 2016 season just where he left off in 2015. He rushed 22 times for 126 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas State. McCaffrey also caught a team-high seven passes for 40 yards and it was a play that didn’t count that displayed his tremendous ability. The 6-foot, 220-pound junior fielded a punt at his own three-yard line and then weaved his way in and around a host of Wildcat defenders on a 97-yard jaunt to the end zone. The play was called back because of an illegal block.
The Trojans will be tasked with slowing down McCaffrey, something they could not do last season. The Stanford RB had 207 yards rushing and another 105 receiving in leading the Cardinal to victory. USC head coach Clay Helton would like his squad to be more like Stanford, physical and disciplined on both sides of the ball. That hasn’t happened thus far. The Trojans have had at least one player ejected from each of their two games and, as far as being physical on offense, USC has only rushed for 242 yards so far this season.
Bob Balfe
Tulane +5.5 & +200
I would not believe it if someone told me that Tulane was the team to hold Navy to their lowest rushing total last year, but it’s true. The Green Wave held them to 166 rushing yards. This season Tulane is again very good against the run and will be facing a team that has 5 new offensive lineman and are already on their second string QB. Tulane has more weapons on the offensive side of the ball this year and should cash the ticket today with the outright win. Moneyline at +200 has value.
Harry Bondi
NEW MEXICO (+6.5) over Rutgers
After starting the season with two games as a double-digit favorite, the Lobos are back in their preferred role as an underdog, while Rutgers comes in the rare role as a favorite. That’s exactly the kind of setup we like to see, so we will grab the points. New Mexico will be laser-focused for this game after losing to rival New Mexico State last week as a 11-point favorite in a misleading finals score. While the Aggies had the advantage of being familiar with the Lobos’ intricate option offense last week, Rutgers does not have that luxury since it has never seen it before. That gives New Mexico a huge edge, so will take the TD head start against a Rutgers defense that has allowed 30 or more points in eight of its last nine games against FBS foes.