Free Picks for Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Dave Cokin
Miami vs. Central Michigan
Pick: Miami +2.5
Miami Ohio has to bounce back after blowing the rivalry game with Cincinnati. This game was 17-6 late on Saturday. But the RedHawks gave up a TD drive and a deuce to make it 17-14. The things fell apart. The kick returner should have downed the ball but didn't and got tackled at the five. Still, Miami had a chance to salt the game away with a 3rd and 2 at their 13. But they took a really bad delay of game penalty, and on the next play, the QB threw a pick-six to put Cincy ahead. A late Miami drive stalled at the Bearcats 20. Miami coach Chuck Martin called it the worst loss of his career. If Miami has a hangover here, CMU probably beats them. But on paper, Miami is the better football team and this program showed a great ability to fight through adversity last season. CMU has had one good performance thus far, but that was against a pretty awful Kansas entry. I'll bank on the RedHawks putting the Cincinnati game behind them, in which case they're a nice value as dogs win this matchup. I would recommend buying the half point up to +3 with Miami.
Doc's Sports
UCLA vs. Stanford
Play: UCLA +7½
Jim Mora is a very overrated coach but taking him aside UCLA may have better talent than that of the Cardinal. Stanford is coming off back-to-back losses including last Saturday night at San Diego State, a team from a Group of Five conference. I just do not believe they will be able to run a desperate Bruin team out of the building. Stanford is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. 68% of the money is coming in on the Bruins as the spread in this game continues to drop. Doc’s Sports nailed both of their top plays in football last week including a BLOWOUT Nonconference Game of the Year winner behind Wisconsin destroying BYU.
Jesse Schule
Mississippi St vs. Georgia
Play: Mississippi St +7
The Georgia Bulldogs are asked to cover seven points at home versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs this week. It could be hard for Georgia to cover here with a backup quarterback and only one of their top two running backs healthy. Sony Michel didn't play last week, and his status for this game is unclear. What is clear is that Mississippi State shut down the high powered rushing attack of LSU last week, and if they can slow Georgia's running game, this should be close.
Harry Bondi
WYOMING (-7) over Hawaii
The Cowboys and QB Josh Allen came into the season with high aspirations, but have struggled to a 1-2 record, with the losses coming in blowout fashion to Iowa and Oregon. So, with the season on the line, expect a huge effort here today from Wyoming in a major step down game. Hawaii is just 20-41 the last 10 years when playing away from home and just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference games, while Wyoming has gone 10-6 ATS in conference play during that same time period. The island boys will also struggle mightily here as they play a game way out of their element at more than 3,000 feet above sea level in Laramie.
Dennis Macklin
Wake Forest vs. Appalachian St
Play: Wake Forest -5
Wake has been almost perfect in its first three wins that came but an aggregate score of 141-27. They've dominated their three opponents by better than 188 ypg. Going into last week, App State had been on a 28-6 straight up run with three of the losses coming to Georgia, Miami, and Tennessee. Last week we saw the big reason for concern as the Mounties (-22.5) were outgained by the lowly Texas State and had to stop the Bobcats on the final play of the game to preserve a 23-13 win. Wake is 7-1 ATS with suitcase last eight while App State is just 1-9 ATS in its L10. These schools are separated by just 92 miles so there should be a pretty good contingent of Deac fans on hand to support these white hot Deacons.
Jeff Allen
Washington vs. Colorado
Play" Colorado +11
Washington has dominated the series of late but Colorado played the Huskies tough in last year's Pac-12 championship game. In fact, it was 14-7 at the half with the Buffs getting the kickoffs before two second-half picks opened the floodgates. Both 3-0s are meaningless as each team opened the year with cupcakes but the Buffalo run defense is especially tough and new QB Montez does not make mistakes or turn the ball over like his predecessor Lifau. Colorado is 6-3 L9 as a home dog and the program as a whole is still on the upswing.
Jeff Allen
Washington vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado +11
Washington has dominated the series of late but Colorado played the Huskies tough in last year's Pac-12 championship game. In fact, it was 14-7 at the half with the Buffs getting the kickoffs before two second-half picks opened the floodgates. Both 3-0s are meaningless as each team opened the year with cupcakes but the Buffalo run defense is especially tough and new QB Montez does not make mistakes or turn the ball over like his predecessor Lifau. Colorado is 6-3 L9 as a home dog and the program as a whole is still on the upswing.
Raphael Esparza
South Carolina (-8.5) over Louisiana Tech
South Carolina is coming off a horrible home loss to the Kentucky Wildcats last Saturday 23-13, and we should see a very mad Gamecocks team Saturday afternoon. Both teams come to Williams-Brice Stadium 2-1, and with the Gamecocks getting back-to-back home games I don't see them losing 2-straight home games. LA Tech beat Western Kentucky on the road last weekend 23-22, but the Bulldogs will struggle with the Gamecocks on Saturday. South Carolina scored only 13 points against the Wildcats defense last weekend but scored an average of 33 ppg before that Kentucky game, and Saturday I see a big offensive numbers coming out of the Gamecocks. Louisiana Tech is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 nonconference games, and the Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS following a ATS loss.
Robert Ferringo
Arkansas (+2.5) over Texas A&M
I don't think that Arkansas is going to miss out on a chance to pull a key SEC upset here. Bret Bielema has lost to A&M five straight years, including a 21-point rout last season after back-to-back overtime heartbreakers in 2014 and 2015. Well, it is time for the Razorbacks to snap the streak. This A&M team has issues. Kevin Sumlin has fans and regents openly campaigning for his firing. The Aggies still have that unreal choke against UCLA hanging over them. They were also unimpressive in a 10-point win over Nicholls State and the Aggies were actually down 21-14 at halftime last week against Louisiana-Lafayette. Arkansas has had two weeks to prepare for this game and lick its wounds after falling to TCU. But that 28-7 loss was a bit misleading, as it was 14-7 with less than three minutes left to play and Arkansas had two missed field goals. I think Arkansas is extremely motivated in this game and I think that they are more focused than the Aggies. I like the Razorbacks to get this win here.
Harry Bondi
WAKE FOREST (-4) over Appalachian State
We used Wake Forest two weeks ago and cashed a ticket in a blowout win over B.C. In fact, over the last two weeks, the Deacons have outscored opponents 80-20 and covered the spread by an alarming 45 points! App State has covered just five of its last 19 at home and and five of its last 15 as an underdog. Lay the road chalk.
Dave Cokin
UMass at Tennessee
Play: UMass +28
I won’t try to make much of a case for Massachusetts. The Minuteman are not good, although they might not be as horrible as most think. I have them at #112 out of 130 in my FBS power ratings. Teams outside the top 100 are capable of being blown out at any time, and in fact, the betting line is almost exactly where it should be based on those power ratings.
But Tennessee is the ultimate red flag entry right now. The Volunteers are off a demoralizing final play of the game Hail Mary loss to Florida. It’s never easy to put those in the rear view mirror, and it’s not like the prospect of hosting little UMass is likely to rev up the Tennessee engines.
There’s more. I’ve got good info that there’s a load of conflict taking place off the field for the Volunteers, as members of the coaching staff are not exactly seeing eye to eye these days. That’s not a good thing and I’ve heard, again via respected sources, that the “wheels might be about to come off”.
I felt Butch Jones was on the hot seat coming into this season and the way the Vols lost to the Gators sure didn’t help the coach’s cause. The Georgia game next week is now massive as far as this season is concerned for Tennessee.
Under the circumstances, focus could be a real issue for the Volunteers this weekend. Tennessee figures to dispatch UMass with relative ease, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be able to cover this enormous line. Getting four TD’s with Massachusetts is the way I’d play this one.
SCOTT SPREITZER
Arkansas State +6
SMU put 36 points on the board against TCU last time out, but allowed 56. The Mustangs have allowed TCU and North Texas to complete 56 of 77, 73% of their passes, for 789 yards, with 7 TDs and just 2 INTs. The porous pass defense plays right into Arkansas State's strength, the passing game led by QB Justice Hansen. The ASU signal caller has completed 71% of his passes on the season, averaging over 385 yards per game with 8 TDs and only 2 INTs. And while Arkansas State was cruising to an easy 45-point win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, SMU was suffering the tough emotional and physical loss to TCU. SMU's defense ranks 117th against the pass and 104th in total yards allowed per game. We had Arkansas State and cashed when they covered at Nebraska in their season opener.
CAPPERS CLUB
Michigan vs. Purdue
Play: Purdue +10
The Purdue Boilermakers have been one of the biggest surprises in football, and with the line moving to +10 I like the value in this game.
The Boilermakers come into this game with a 2-1 record, and their only loss came against the Louisville Cardinals, and that was only by seven points.
The Wolverines offense is no where near as good as the Cardinals, and if the Boilermakers could hold them 35 points, I think they will really be able to slow down the Wolverines in this game.
Some trends to note. Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Boilermakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
ALEX SMART
Army vs. Tulane
Play: Army +2½
Army works on ball control via a ground heavy attack. The Cadets average 364.7 ypd via the rush this season. Meanwhile, the Green Wave despite of knowing what to expect are just 6-49 SU in their L/55 games when they allow 200 or more yards rushing including a recent loss to Navy 23-21.
With that said, I'm betting on Army piling up at least 200 yards plus, and for Tulane to fail here in a letdown spot after playing Oklahoma last week while allowing the Sooners to score 42 straight points in a lopsided 56-14 home loss.
TULANE is 6-17 ATS L/23 in home games after a loss by 28 or more points.
CFB Home favorites like Tulane - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after a loss by 17 or more points are just 25-58 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors.